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Around SBN: King Maker: Anze Kopitar Scores OT Winner; L.A. Takes Game 1

Sumitamaavatar

Jim Wisinski

Apr 14, 2008 Jul 10, 2011 185 463

a fan of

Tampa Bay Rays Major League Baseball Team

Carolina Panthers National Football League Team

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DRaysBay Winning or losing the division

So maybe you're concerned about the Rays holding onto their division lead now that the trade deadline has come and gone. Personally I'm not because for one thing I don't consider the situation to be very dire anyway, I don't think that the acquisitions of Rodriguez and Bay, which are upgrades over the players they replaced, are going to make a significant difference over just two months of the season. I also know for a fact that the Rays recent troubles with RISP hitting won't continue because it's basically impossible for that to happen, it would defy any sort of logic and intelligent thought if it did so. There are also upgrades available in the minors, such as Salas or Price as relievers or Ruggiano to bat against lefties. The Rays remain just as good, if not better, of a team going forward as they were the first four months of the season.

The other reason I'm confident in the Rays having a good shot at winning the division is that a three and four game lead with two months to go is larger than you may think.

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80 comments  | 

I'm not entirely sure that the Rays aren't the best team in the division this year. We will see.

almost 4 years ago Sumitamaavatar_tiny Jim Wisinski 21 comments

Today, June 26th, 2008, I am officially a complete and unreserved believer in the Rays as being playoff contenders this season. Anything less than the wild card will be somewhat disappointing, they're the favorite for it.

Link is relevant to the situation.

almost 4 years ago Sumitamaavatar_tiny Jim Wisinski 16 comments 1 recs

DRaysBay Stadium plans and location issues

The stadium news coming down today seems to be the logical course of action. This has seemed rushed from the beginning, trying to go from intial plans and presentation to having everything basically finalized within a year. That's a pretty short time considering the various approvals needed to go forward with it and the brief timeframe plays into the hands of groups like POWW using fear-mongering tactics to sway people to their side while presenting little in the way of actual facts. I'm also pleased on a personal level because this means that the heated stadium discussions will probably die down soon and this will cease to be a distraction to the great year the team on the field is having. It would be great to just enjoy the success the organization is finally having and not have anything else going on but instead we have this non-baseball stuff demanding lots of news time as well.

What I mainly wanted to bring up today though was the seemingly widespread perception (at least among Tampa residents) that having the stadium on that side of the bay would greatly increase attendance and that the stadium's current location is the reason the turnout is disappointing to some people (it isn't to me but that's a separate issue altogether). This is, in my opinion, bunk.

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29 comments  |  2 recs | 

DRaysBay Follow-up on contention

During the previous homestand I made an entry about my views on the Rays as contenders. My conclusion was that if they continued to play well on that homestand (which they certainly did, going 8-2 overall) and had a decent road trip in three tough places to go then I'd let all my reservations go. They went 3-6 on that road trip including another sweep in Boston, falling short of my stated goal of 4-5. With their good performance in Texas and maybe only losing the finale in Anaheim because of abysmally incompetent umpiring at a crucial time in the game I felt a little better about the rest of the season but I feel that they haven't completely gotten over the hump yet because of one potentially damaging weakness.

That weakness is 3/5 of the rotation. Kazmir and Shields are fine, if they're healthy nobody should worry about them at all. In fact they're a great 1-2 punch to throw at teams (personally I couldn't care less about Shields' road performance this year, HFA has been somewhat out of whack so far anyway and he was fine on the road in 2007, there's nothing to worry about in my eyes). The problem is with the other guys.

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24 comments  | 

"Rays first baseman Carlos Pena was placed on the 15-day disabled list with a fractured left index finger."

Ruggiano was recalled to take his place.

almost 4 years ago Sumitamaavatar_tiny Jim Wisinski 129 comments

DRaysBay Contenders, after June 11th

I'm generally what you would consider an optimist on the Rays, often expecting good things to come about even when I might be reaching a bit because I want it to be true. I also like to think of myself as a realist though and therefore before the season started I said that the Rays would be at or above .500 but I thought any playoff talk was stretching reality a bit. I maintained that all spring and so far throughout this season, saying that I liked what was happening but the playoffs were something for next season. In my opinion that's the right course to take, usually when people make conclusions based on a month or two of play that contradict what they believed before the season they end up being wrong, a single month of baseball can be more than enough to return things to their proper place, hopes to be dashed, or disappointment turned into satisfaction.

However, after 49 games the Rays are tied for the second best record in baseball and that can't be ignored. I was interested when they swept Boston but didn't change my opinion. Once they swept the Angels I had to admit that I was wavering on my previous stance. Now they went .500 on a rather tough road trip and really could have won four or five of those games instead of just three, the two losses in St. Louis were rather unusual for this season with them losing the games themselves instead of simply getting beat by a team that played better than them that day. Now, after a brutal series finale in Oakland, they've had two convincing wins over Baltimore with a good chance at the sweep this afternoon. Evidence in their favor just keeps mounting.

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1 comment  | 

DRaysBay Gabe Gross needs another home run

That would boost his slugging percentage over .400 and put him in the not particularly prestigious but at least interesting .200/.300/.400 club with Longoria, Pena, and Gomes. The requirements for this club are of course having a batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage at or above those numbers but not much higher. They stand at this after today's game:

Pena: .209/.313/.403
Longoria: .211/.311/.400
Gomes: .209/.316/.418
Gross: .205/.319/.385

This isn't just statistical trivia though, it's a good jumping off point for analysis. Setting aside the low batting averages for a moment all four of these players have two important things you want from a hitter: around 100 points difference between his BA and OBP (IsoD) and around 200 points between BA and SLG (IsoP). With Pena, a slugging first baseman, you'd like to see more like .250 or higher in IsoP but .200 is a good start at least and along with the high IsoD provides a good platform for valuable production even if the power didn't go up (I'm positive it will but that's not relevant at the moment). That means that all four of these players have an obvious ability to contribute to the team more if only those BAs would stop hanging out with Mario Mendoza.

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10 comments  | 

Jackson tonight, how good was he?

Seven innings tonight, three walks to four strikeouts, just 57% of his pitches for strikes, four three ball counts that didn't result in walks, several pitches that weren't anywhere close to the plate. Sure, the total result for the game was nice but was this really that encouraging for projection of future performance? The baserunners won't always be scattered evenly across all the innings and the line drives won't always go right at the fielders. Be impressed if you want but I don't see how Jackson's performance tonight was that encouraging for him actually being good in the future. Still doesn't know where the ball is going half the time.

about 4 years ago Sumitamaavatar_tiny Jim Wisinski 68 comments

DRaysBay More Pitchers Than Spots

While having more pitchers available than you can fit into the rotation is usually considered a good problem to have it is still a problem that must be sorted out. The first step was taken yesterday with Jeff Niemann being returned to the Durham Bulls; although it was a shame that he only was able to make two starts he was the obvious choice due to him originally being up to replace Garza and also because the other three pitchers in contention for the rotation spots were ahead of him in line for evaluation. Another good start might have forced the Rays to make a harder decision but that just wasn't to be; he may have been going back down anyway no matter what he did.

That leaves the trio of Jason Hammel, Edwin Jackson, and Andy Sonnanstine left for the two spots that will remain available after Kazmir's return at the beginning of May. Before I say anything else I should make my potential bias clear though I will do my best to be utterly objective in my analysis: I'm no Jackson fan, I didn't like him starting last season in the rotation, didn't like him staying there all year, and am not exactly thrilled that he's still in there. He hasn't been worth anything in the past four seasons at any level and in my opinion isn't close to suddenly becoming good. I am a Sonnanstine believer, I think that given time in the majors to adjust he can be an averagish innings muncher though his upside is limited due to his low velocity. As for Hammel, I've believed in him for years and haven't stopped believing in him at any point, though I'm one of a very small minority that felt good about him being in the rotation to start the season.

 

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27 comments  | 

Beyond the Box Score Rangers-Padres trade

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2266394

To Rangers: SP Adam Eaton, RP Akinori Otsuka, A-ball C Billy Killian

To Padres: SP Chris Young, 1B Adrian Gonzalez, OF Terrmel Sledge

Lone Star Ball is all over it, plus another entry after the prospect (Killian was revealed).

My opinion pretty much mirrors Adam's, though I like Otsuka more than he does I think. Just an awful trade for the Rangers.

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Beyond the Box Score Hunsicker to Rays

Link

The contract isn't signed yet but it's pretty much official now. Hunsicker will be joining the Rays in an advisory role to GM (in status if not in name) Andrew Friedman and helping smooth out the rough edges of a young and inexperienced staff taking over a front office.

I'm ecstatic about this, not only was Hunsicker a good GM but he's the perfect guy for what the Rays need him to do, instant credibility for the new regime and familiarity with the agents and other front offices.

Also happening with the Rays, stat-friendly Joe Maddon (currently the Angels bench coach) is one of the three finalists for the manager's job along with 2003-05 bench coach John McLaren and Bobby Valentine, who is probably headed for LA. I'm really hoping for Maddon to get the job.

Crazy as it is, one of the strongest bastions of old-schoolness in MLB is going Saber.

1 comment  | 

DRaysBay Leaving

I posted this on the main page last night but apparently when my account was switched back to a normal user the software removed it.

_____________________________

I regret to tell you that I will no longer for writing for DRays Bay. For several reasons, including reducing my commitments, wanting to concentrate more on my work at RaysBaseball.com (hopefully doing more than just the weekly column), and that I don't feel I produce as much content as I'd like, I have decided to stop writing here.

I started up my original blog, Z-Rays, almost a year ago as an experiment to express my thoughts in a more ordered way. I didn't know how long it would last because I didn't know if I had the blogger mentality, the desire and ability to produce new content nearly every day. To be honest I actually lasted longer than I thought, when I first started blogging I thought going on for six months would be a good accomplishment. If I'm going to blog I'd like to produce a fairly steady stream of content; I'm not doing that and it bothers me that I'm not so I'm going to quit.

I'd like to thank David for giving me the chance to write here and all of you for reading and commenting. It's not always easy to be a Rays fan and continue to support the team and root for them passionately so the fans that do that are true fans, the best around. I doubt I'll ever write a blog again but I enjoyed the time I spent doing it and hope that I have provided interesting and useful commentary to you.

1 comment  | 

DRaysBay Leaving

I regret to tell you that I will no longer for writing for DRays Bay. For several reasons, including reducing my commitments, wanting to concentrate more on my work at RaysBaseball.com (hopefully doing more than just the weekly column), and that I don't feel I produce as much content as I'd like, I have decided to stop writing here.

I started up my original blog, Z-Rays, almost a year ago as an experiment to express my thoughts in a more ordered way. I didn't know how long it would last because I didn't know if I had the blogger mentality, the desire and ability to produce new content nearly every day. To be honest I actually lasted longer than I thought, when I first started blogging I thought going on for six months would be a good accomplishment. If I'm going to blog I'd like to produce a fairly steady stream of content; I'm not doing that and it bothers me that I'm not so I'm going to quit.

I'd like to thank David for giving me the chance to write here and all of you for reading and commenting. It's not always easy to be a Rays fan and continue to support the team and root for them passionately so the fans that do that are true fans, the best around. I doubt I'll ever write a blog again but I enjoyed the time I spent doing it and hope that I have provided interesting and useful commentary to you.

0 comments  | 

DRaysBay 8/11 at Orioles

Doug Waechter vs. Bruce Chen

Avoid the sweep game! According to DIPS, Waechter and Chen are pretty much equal.

Lugo SS
Crawford LF
Cantu 3B
Hollins CF
Huff DH
Perez 1B
Gomes RF
Hall C
Green 2B

Just like that it seems Green has gone back to being a regular with Gonzalez as the backup. Why? Who knows!

1 comment  | 

DRaysBay Terrible umpiring

It's not often that you see a member of both teams tossed for arguing balls and strikes in a game. It was completely justified though as the umpiring was awful tonight, going against both teams. The calls on the corners of the plate were badly inconsistent, strikes being balls and a lot of balls being strikes. The Orioles were screwed pretty badly a couple times on calls in the field, first on the sinking liner that Roberts clearly caught but was ruled a trap and the double play that Tejada hit into where he was safe at first by quite a bit.

The Orioles had suffered more from the umpiring until the ninth until Eduardo Perez was called out on strikes on a pitch that was CLEARLY off the plate. Nick Green was also called out on an outside strike, not as blatantly wrong as the call against Perez but still incorrect. I guess it all evened out in the end and nobody got an unfair advantage but it still felt like the game was cheapened because the players weren't always deciding the outcome.

Is it just me or has the umpiring been abnormally bad this season? I've seen waaaay too many bad calls, both benefiting and hurting the Rays. The strike zones especially have been bad and the umpires haven't even been consistent with bad calls. There's a poll under Entry Link.

Poll
Has the umpiring been unusually bad this season?
Yes
4 votes
No
2 votes
Hard to say
3 votes

9 votes | Poll has closed

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DRaysBay Rangers and Angels

I know it's belated but here are a bunch of things I have thoughts on, mainly from the games in Texas and Anaheim last week.



After the strong performances in Texas it was hard to not be disappointed by only finishing the week 3-3 but it was a solid week for the Rays overall.

I say overall because the team went on the road and played .500 ball. When you break it down into components though you can't be as happy because the pitching was awful. Some allowance has to be made for playing in Arlington but there was no excuse for allowing 19 runs to the offensively-challenged Angels. A look at the pitching on the week:

IP R H K BB HR
McClung 8 13 12 4 8 3
Waechter 7 5 7 3 1 3
Kazmir 6 3 7 6 2 0
Fossum 5.1 4 8 1 0 0
Hendrickson 5 4 9 0 0 1
Brazelton 4.1 7 7 2 7 1
Colome 3.1 3 4 2 4 1
Borowski 3 0 1 0 2 0
Harper 2.2 2 4 0 0 2
Orvella 2.2 3 2 4 1 2
Baez 2.1 0 3 0 0 0
Miller 1.1 1 1 1 1 1
Total 51 45 65 23 26 14

Very ugly, it's like the bad old days of the season. A bunch of home runs, few strikeouts, and bad control. Kazmir had a solid start that took too many pitches, Fossum was sorta ok, and everyone else was poor or worse. If you're wondering why I'm giving more credit to Fossum than Hendrickson for fairly similar results it's because of the big gap in park factors where they made their starts, Fossum in Texas and Hendrickson in Anaheim.

Joey Gathright had a solid week at the plate but I still have my concerns about his hitting right now. Defensively was a completely different story though, he was a human highlight reel out there. Lots of great running catches and some nice dives, plays that very few other players have the raw physical ability to make.

As crazy as it may seem after his awful first half if Huff hits in August and September like he did last year then he'll still finish the season with similar rate stats to last season.

Crawford has raised his average almost to .300 now and is showing a little more power than last season. I'm worried about the lack of plate discipline and the low OBP is always going to hurt his value but he's still hitting very well on the season in spite of it. Speaking of hitters with crappy plate discipline, Cantu has had a power vacuum recently. He has hit .312/.333/.387 since the All-Star Break, keeping the AVG and OBP intact (though the .314 OBP still blows) but dropping his SLG on the year to .473. That's still good power for a middle infielder but when your only real contribution is that power you'd like to see better than that. I'm not complaining or down on Cantu really, when you swing at everything you tend to be streaky, it's just a little frustrating. Tons of potential but he's going to continue to have trouble at times until he stops trying to hit anything in the strike zone.

Thursday in Texas Orvella had his first poor outing since July 7th against Detroit. He gave up two home runs and hurt himself with a throwing error, all within one inning. That's unfortunate but it'll happen sometimes and it should be noted just how well he has turned his season around after struggling some early.

IP ERA K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9
Thru July 7th 15.2 5.17 6.9 4.6 1.5 1.15
After July 7th 17.1 2.60 9.9 2.6 3.80 1.04
Total 33 3.82 8.5 3.5 2.38 1.09

Looks like a little time to adjust was all he needed, don't forget that he's only in his second full season of concentrating on being a pitcher and skipped Triple-A completely. The only concern is the home run rate which continues the mild problems he had with the gopher nation in the minors. In the future he will probably occasionally have an ugly blown save every so often on a home run but as long as he maintains his exceptional K/BB ratios then it isn't going to matter much.

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DRaysBay 8/9 at Orioles

Scott Kazmir vs. Erik Bedard

Battle of the young, promising lefties tonight.

Lugo SS
Crawford LF
Cantu 3B
Gomes RF
Huff DH
Perez 1B
Hollins CF
Hall C
Green 2B

The usual anti-lefty lineup for tonight.

Our sister site, Camden Chat, has an interesting post up about Rafael Palmeiro. He is of course eligible to come off his suspension in the series finale on Thursday but it looks like there's a chance he won't ever be back, at least not in a Baltimore uniform.

1 comment  | 

DRaysBay Brazelton optioned to Durham

It's about time! Tim Corcoran was recalled to replace him; maybe Lou will actually use Corcoran this time.

I heard the news about this on Steve Duemig's show this afternoon and in a rare occurence I agreed with everything he said about it. It's great that he's gone, he shouldn't have been brought back up in the first place, there's no way we should see him in the majors again until he starts pitching like he deserves to be here.

2 comments  | 

DRaysBay 8/7 at Angels

Seth McClung vs. Bartolo Colon

Gathright CF
Lugo SS
Huff DH
Gomes LF
Hollins RF
Lee 1B
Gonzalez 3B
LaForest C
Green 2B

I don't understand the lineup and I hope it's not that way because of an injury to Crawford. I have no problem giving him a day off but why not do it against a left-hander since he hasn't hit them well? Cantu having a day off is also strange since the best time to start him, the weaker defender, at third is when the right-handed strikeout guy is on the mound.

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DRaysBay 8/6 at Angels

Mark Hendrickson vs. Chris Bootcheck

Gathright CF
Crawford LF
Lugo SS
Cantu 2B
Huff RF
Lee 1B
Gomes DH
Hall C
Gonzalez 3B

0 comments  | 

DRaysBay The Gomes cheering section

Marc Topkin had a great article in the St. Pete Times today about Jonny Gomes and his mother.

Gomes, 24, figured he had 50 fans in the stands, who cheered wildly during batting practice and pregame introductions. But no matter how many buddies, teammates and coaches showed up, the most special was his mother.

Michelle Gillespie has seen her son play in the big leagues exactly once, when he flew her to New York after he was unexpectedly called up near the end of 2003 and she saw his second game.

She didn't see him like this, batting in the middle of the Rays lineup, ranking among the rookie leaders with 12 home runs and getting credit for bringing a toughness and attitude to the clubhouse that is a big part of their second-half turnaround.

I have my doubts about his toughness and attitude being a big part of the Rays turnaround, I think his .286/.362/.529 performance since the All-Star Break is much more important, but that's great to hear. Stuff like that keeps the manager writing your name in the lineup every day even if you struggle.

First base alternatives

Chris Kahrl of Baseball Prospectus weighed in (subscribers only) recently on the Rays continued reliance on Travis Lee.

Regardless, the fascination with Lee defies rational defense. I'd rather take a look at something like a Munson-Josh Phelps or Earl Snyder platoon or job-sharing arrangement. Munson has pop and patience, and at Durham, Snyder's bopping to the tune of .266/.324/.528. Phelps is slugging .571.

Munson I have no argument against, recent hot streak for Lee or not it's Munson that deserves the starting job right now. Lee is gone after this season, Munson may not have a future as a long-term starter with the Rays but he could be a good bench player and may be able to adequately hold first base until Wes Bankston arrives. He came up as a third baseman, albeit a crappy one, so he can probably handle the defensive demands of first base well enough.

Where I disagree is Kahrl's suggestion of platoon partners. For one thing, Munson may or may not need to be platooned. He hasn't shown massive splits in his time in the majors, especially in 2004. From '02-'04 he only got 158 at-bats against left-handed pitching, not nearly enough to draw a significant conclusion from. Why not see if he can play every day? Eduardo Perez is still around anyway if he needs a day off against a particularly tough right-hander.

The other problem is the partners she suggests. After two years of mashing only lefties, Josh Phelps suddenly reversed that and was horrible against them with the Rays. Again, we're looking at small sample size issues, but it is worth considering. Mainly it's just another data point in how Phelps has no real plan about what he's doing at the plate, just swinging his bat at anything and hoping he hits it hard. I saw most of his plate appearances with the Rays and it was hard to find anything encouraging in how he looked up there. Kahrl points out that he's slugging .571 (down to .550 now) but is that any reason to get excited? A quick comparison of Phelps with the Rays and Phelps with the Bulls:

AB BB K BB/PA BB/K BA OBP SLG
Rays 158 12 48 .071 .25 .266 .328 .424
Bulls 140 8 33 .054 .24 .257 .311 .550


There's nothing there to give us any hope that Phelps will hit better with the Rays if he comes up again. The only improvement (and his walk rate has decreased slightly) is in his power, his IsoP went up 126 points. Since he's playing in a park that greatly favor right-handed power hitters there's no reason to think that he'll be any different if he comes back to the Rays. Sure, he wasn't terrible before but it wasn't the kind of production you want out of 1B or DH and he has no defensive value. I'd rather give Munson the full time job and see what he can do; not a lot of hope of him turning his career around but I'd feel better about giving him the chance than Phelps.

The other name mentioned was Earl Snyder, current owner of a .263/.322/.518 line at Durham. He's another right-handed power guy playing in a park tailor made for him and he still isn't posting a BA and OBP that could be considered anything more than mediocre. Sure, maybe if he only faced left-handed pitching he'd be good enough but I wouldn't bet on it. Put him up against major league pitching and have him play in parks that don't strongly favor him and he won't look nearly so good.

Based on his recent competence with the bat you could make a case for Lee staying as long as he continues to hit and I'd be fine with that. If you want another option though then the only one I can really see (besides the obvious one of shifting Huff to 1B full-time) is to bring Eric Munson back and give him a shot. The other Triple-A options aren't going to get the job done.

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DRaysBay 8/5 at Angels

Doug Waechter vs. Paul Byrd

No TV for local fans until Sunday.

0 comments  | 

DRaysBay 8/4 at Rangers

Casey Fossum vs. Joaquin Benoit

Gathright CF
Crawford LF
Cantu 2B
Huff 1B
Lugo SS
Gomes RF
LaForest DH
Hall C
Gonzalez 3B

Good to see Lugo back in the lineup but Nick Green and Travis Lee are still out with injuries. I don't know if they're available off the bench tonight or not. Normally I'd grumble about Gomes dropping down a spot but I like the way it sets up now with Lugo right in front of him. I trust Lugo and Huff to get on base more than the top three in the lineup.

Going for the SWEEP!

2 comments  | 

DRaysBay Wins Above Replacement

Over at Baseball Prospectus they have a stat called Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP). It's a way to gauge how much a player has contributed beyond what the theoretical "replacement player," a guy plucked off the scrap heap or out of the minors, would do. The biggest flaw is that the defensive portion comes from using BPro's defensive stats which are pretty suspect. It will do for this though since I'm looking to see the general amount of value the players have each contributed, not get a definitive conclusion about their performance.

I'm actually using WARP2 for this since it adjusts for more than WARP1.

Position Players

WARP
Jorge Cantu 2.7
Kevin Cash 0.3
Fernando Cortez -0.3
Carl Crawford 3.9
Joey Gathright 0.3
Jonny Gomes 2.3
Alex Gonzalez 1.2
Nick Green 2.0
Toby Hall 3.3
Damon Hollins 1.9
Aubrey Huff 2.8
Charles Johnson -0.1
Pete LaForest 0.1
Tim Laker 0.0
Travis Lee 2.4
Julio Lugo 6.1
Eric Munson 0.1
Eduardo Perez 1.1
Josh Phelps 0.9
Alex Sanchez 1.1
Chris Singleton 0.4
Reggie Taylor 0.0
Total 32.4


Pitchers

WARP
Danys Baez 3.5
Joe Beimel 0.1
Rob Bell -0.3
Joe Borowski 0.3
Dewon Brazelton 0.0
Lance Carter 0.8
Jesus Colome -0.5
Tim Corcoran 0.1
Casey Fossum 3.3
Lee Gardner -0.1
Travis Harper -0.5
Mark Hendrickson -0.2
Scott Kazmir 2.7
Seth McClung -0.3
Trever Miller 0.3
Hideo Nomo -0.2
Franklin Nunez -0.3
Chad Orvella 0.9
Jon Switzer 0.0
Doug Waechter 0.9
John Webb -0.1
Total 10.6


Interesting stuff for contemplation, if not the most accurate measure of their contributions to the team winning or losing.

1 comment  | 

DRaysBay 8/3 at Rangers

Scott Kazmir vs. Ricardo Rodriguez

Gathright CF
Crawford LF
Cantu 2B
Huff 3B
Gomes DH
Hollins RF
LaForest 1B
Hall C
Gonzalez SS

A wacky, injury forced lineup tonight.

3 comments  | 

DRaysBay 8/2 at Rangers

Seth McClung vs. Chris Young

Young appears to be wearing down quickly, he has been really bad lately.

Lugo a last minute scratch with his sore knee from Sunday.

Green 2B
Crawford LF
Cantu 3B
Huff DH
Gomes RF
Hollins CF
Lee 1B
Hall C
Gonzalez SS

The Rays have a massive tactical advantage in outfield defense this series. The Rangers have a slow outfield and there's a ton of ground to cover out there. Even though the Rays don't have a great defensive outfield at least everyone has some speed and can cover the space.

3 comments  | 

DRaysBay Lamar blows it

Lugo staying I'm happy about. He's the one of the three trading chips that might have a future with the Rays for two to three years (if he is willing to move to 2B), based on position, cost, production, and projection.

Huff is staying too and I refuse to blame Lamar for that. If it comes out from a reliable source that he was offered something like Anibal Sanchez and Kelly Shoppach and turned it down then he will deserve all the blame in the world but we don't know that. I'd say there is a fair chance that he wasn't given a concrete offer of enough in return to justify moving Huff right now.

David already quoted in the entry below what Joe Sheehan said about the lack of action on the Rays part and to an extent I agree with him. Not necessarily about Huff though, he's the kind of player that teams will really want to pick up in the offseason and it will help if he continues to finish so strongly. Waiting till next year's deadline is a mistake but not moving Huff until the offseason is ok unless we know for sure that Lamar turned down a great deal.

When it comes to Danys Baez though, that's where it's a big problem and Lamar's failure to get anything done is likely to negatively impact the Rays. I can't believe that there was not a single team out there willing to give back fair value and more for Baez. A solid reliever currently with an ERA just above 3 and closing experience with a reasonably priced option for next season? Bull, somebody must have offered a deal worth doing.

Right before the deadline Baez's value was probably as high as it will ever be. He's not particularly reliable as far as closers go, his walk rate has gone up the past two years and so has his WHIP. The WHIP is the real concern, he just allows too many baserunners. So far he has maintained a lower ERA than he should have, he has had some luck but recently that has turned. He gave up a run in two of the Baltimore games and completely blew last Tuesday's Red Sox game. Good but not great relievers don't have that much of a trade market in the offseason, do you really want to take the risk of letting Baez pitch another year in the hope that he'll hold things together enough to not lose the Proven, Reliable Closer<sup>TM</sup> sheen? Whether he will close for his new team or not isn't that important, it's that closing experience and appearance of reliability under pressure that attracts teams looking for help in the stretch run.

Although I disagree with Sheehan's opinion that Lamar had to move all three players I do think his overall assessment is correct. Lamar just doesn't understand the real value of his players and has no intelligent way of projecting their future performance. My view of him is that while he feels that he should be willing to listen if a great offer is made he doesn't actually WANT to move his trading chips. That's a problem, a GM in his situation needs to want to move those players for prospects; that doesn't mean he has to accept whatever is offered, he should still be willing to hold onto them if a good deal isn't available. I don't sense that desire in Lamar, in his eyes Huff and Baez are more valuable to the Rays as a franchise than any but the best return in prospects.

I won't believe that he didn't have a good enough offer for Baez available but as I said above I'm willing to give him some leeway on Huff. I'm still skeptical of that though, Even if he didn't turn down any good deals for Huff (and we have no way of knowing that) I bet there are deals that most of us would have found acceptable that he would have turned down if it was offered to him. I have no problem with him shooting him in negotiations but you have to know when to lower your price and make a lesser deal that's still a smart one for you to make. Lamar doesn't strike me as knowing how to do that and it almost certainly hurt the Rays with Baez and may have with Huff. It's not just now this year's deadline that's the problem, why will it be any different in the offseason or next year in July?

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DRaysBay Rafael Palmeiro suspended

Rafael Palmeiro, newest member of the 3000 hit club, has tested positive for a banned substance and been suspended under the new testing agreement.

ESPN Link

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DRaysBay Open Thread: Trade Deadline Edition

Discuss any moves from today's deadline here.

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