The Reds just picked up one of the top pitchers in baseball!

I'm so out of it I don't think I can give a detailed analysis of this trade in my typical style. I'm not entirely convinced that stuff is meaningful anymore anyway. So here's my very brief opinion:

What they gave up: Grandal is a nice talent to give up, but the rest were in my opinion fairly marginal prospects. Boxberger's a relief pitcher, so whatever. Volquez is now someone else's problem, and Alonso is a low defense, low/moderate power 1B. Obviously the Padres (and a lot of other people) disagree with me, or they wouldn't have given up Latos.

What the Reds got in return: a top notch pitcher. Cameron breaks it down well. But even without PETCO, Latos should be successful. He is a power pitcher, with a fairly hard four-seamer for a starting pitcher (93 mph) and a badass slider (23% whiff % vs. 14% MLB average), as well as a two-seamer, curve, and change. It's pretty freaking exciting to see the Reds making a move like this after what seems like YEARS since they went all in on a trade. This is better than the Marcum deal, and on par with the Greinke deal of last offseason in terms of the quality of the pitcher they acquired.

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Hi, long time no see!

I'm going to try to do a playoff match-up series in line with the series previews I did this season until I was crushed by the unrighteous fury of my semester from hell.  I'm calling them a match-up series rather than a preview series because a) I'm not going to get these all done before the teams start playing, and b) it's hard to do a preview when you don't even know the pitching probables because the Rays can't make up their minds!  It's like they're still in some kind of giddy haze from their amazing run to overtake the Red Sox....  Anyway, here we go.

Team Comparison: Rays vs. Rangers

The Rays are the most impressively run team in baseball.  I really don't think there can be any question of this right now.  This is a team that started the season with a $42 M payroll after peaking out at $73 M last year, lost two key players in Carl Crawford an Carlos Pena, as well as pretty much their entire bullpen.  They have crap attendance.  And they are going to the playoffs for the third time in four years.

That all said, AL East or not, they are here by the wild card.  And based on pretty much every measure, they had a weaker showing in 2011 than the Rangers.  The Rangers, even after adjusting for their offense-inducing ballpark, have a better offense, a deeper rotation, and thanks to some deadline deals, a more impressive bullpen.  The only place where the Rays seem to be clearly superior is their fielding--by all measures save for nFRAA (which, as has been pointed out, often contradicts all the other measures...I just don't know about it), the Rays are probably the best fielding team in baseball.  And the Rangers are just very good.

But things happen in short series, and the Rays are a very good team.  And there are some things about the way the Rays are constructed that might even the match-up in a short series.  Let's take a look at the players.

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The Reds are over .500!!!  This makes me so dang happy.  Unfortunately, the best team in the National League is coming to town for a four-game set.  Let's hope the Reds can stay hot!  Because this team is tough...

Offensively, they are quite similar to the Reds, which means they're above-average compared to the National League.  But their rotation is just to die for.  When the Phillies signed Cliff Lee this offseason, I kept telling myself that even though it looked like a historic rotation, pitchers can fall apart quickly.  You never know.  

Well, they haven't been perfect.  Roy Oswalt has battled back injuries, and has been just ok.  Nevertheless, the trio of Halladay--Lee--Hamels has been everything that any Phillies fan could have hoped for.  On top of that, they've gotten a surprisingly good debut from rookie Vance Worley.  The result is a rotation that has carried this team to a 6-game lead over a very good Atlanta Braves team.

I don't know what to say about the fielding data.  DRS, in particular, thinks this team has been catastrophically bad in the field.  But other measures have them in the vicinity of below average to slightly above average.  Raul Ibanez doesn't help, but aside from him I don't think they're a disaster.

The other thing to look at in this series is that September rolls around, and with it the expansion of rosters.  I'm looking forward to seeing Devin Mesoraco some time this month.

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Reds Games below .500: three.  A sweep would get them even.

The Reds head to Miami today to take on the Marlins.  The Marlins have had a tough go of it this year.  While it's hard to think they can feel too disappointed given their opening day payroll of just $58 million, I think a lot of folks expected the Marlins to be in the 85-game range...not unlike the Reds.  But they've really struggled this season, and are currently 25 games behind the Phillies in the NL East.

If there's one area where the Marlins are reasonably good, it's their bullpen.  The Reds have gotten equivalent results, but the Marlin's peripheral numbers are better, which means they are more likely to continue having that success moving forward.  But their rotation has struggled horrifically, their offense has not been good, and by most measures, their fielding has been below-average as well.  On top of that, Hanley Ramirez is hurt.  And Logan Morrison, one of their better players, was recently sent down--as best as I can tell--for a combination of too much twittering plus failing to appear at some meet and greet.  Or something.  It's sort of a mess in Florida right now.

Sun Life Stadium Park Factors

wOBA (LHB/RHB): 100/101
HR: 99/95

Overall, it's pretty close to a neutral park.  Slight negative effect on home runs to righties, but that's countered by more singles, doubles, and especially triples.

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Amazing how quickly things can change.  When the Pirates and Reds met last month, they were in the thick of the NL Central race.  Now, they are 14 games behind the Brewers, and 1.5 games behind the third place Reds.  Based on my profile of them at the time, something like this isn't that surprising.  That said, I didn't expect them to fall apart as quickly and triumphantly (wrong word..what's the opposite of triumphant?) as they did.  

The profile of them as a team isn't much different than it was last time.  They can't hit.  While they did make changes to improve their team by acquiring Derrek Lee and Ryan Ludwick, Lee is now injured and their team wRC+ has actually fallen since our last encounter.  Their fielding numbers have also all declined over the past month.  It's to the point that I guess we'd peg them as around average compared to the above-average numbers we saw last year.

At the same time, their more volatile pitching numbers like ERA- have gone up for both the rotation and starting pitching, though xFIP- has been pretty stable in each case.  Interestingly, the Reds' ERA- has improved by 7 points in the past month: the rotation hasn't been great, but has been better of late than it was earlier in the season.

Park Factors for PNC Park (LHB/RHB)

via statcorner.com

wOBA: 100/98
HR: 99/73

PNC Park has been an absolutely brutal place for right-handed power hitters, at least in terms of home run numbers.  The alley in left field is very deep.  Overall, the park plays pretty neutral.

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The Reds head to Nationals Park today.  While it's not as annoying as it was when Jim Bowden lurked in their front office, I hate playing the Nationals.  They're a team that the Reds should just kill every year (so my gut says), and yet they always seem to give the Reds a hard time.  Plus, the "Curly W" thing their radio announcer does is the second-most annoying my-team-won-schtick in baseball (well behind John Sterling's incomparable "Thaaa Yankees Wiiinn!!," and a bit ahead of Greg Brown's "Raise the Jolly Roger!" thing).

Anyway, as a team, the Nationals are not as bad as previous editions, but they are not good either.  Their offense, once a modest strength, has been disappointing this year.  As a group, they've posted below-average power numbers and well below-average on-base ability.  Just not an impressive group.  And they don't make up for it with fielding either, as they are probably somewhere around an average fielding team.

Pitching-wise, they've posted almost identical xFIPs to the Reds.  They have, however, gotten vastly better outcomes from those performances, with their overall starting pitching rating only a tad below average.  I'm not sure that they're dramatically better than what the Reds have, but they're certainly no worse.  And they have at least one top-drawer starter, who the Reds do face in this series, plus some others that are intriguing in their own way.

Nationals Park

wOBA park factor (LHB/RHB): 103/97
HR park factor (LHB/RHB): 94/100

Interestingly, while the park tends to be a bit more kind to right-handers in terms of hitting home runs, all of the other hits--singles, doubles, triples--tend to be inflated for left-handed hitters and depressed for righties.  As a result, the park overall favors left-handers slightly more than righties.  Overall, it's a fairly neutral park.

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The Padres come to town today.  Along with their mirror-image division rivals, the Rockies, they are the most difficult club to evaluate in terms of player performance because the effects of their parks are so darn huge.  But that effects their offense and defense the same way, so we can at least be confident about their overall w% estimates.  And they say that while their run differential is very close to even, the component stats (i.e. estimated runs scored and allowed, based on their other statistics) indicate that their rather poor winning percentage is a right in line with their performance.

The Reds, of course, continue to see their winning percentage slip despite continuing to have good overall numbers.  ...  I think I've already whined about that enough, though.

The Padres play in an extreme pitcher's park.  But even after (attempting to) adjust for that, wRC+ indicates that they have a below-average offense.  Their pitching, however, is only average--starting pitching has been good-not-great, while their relief has probably gotten slightly better results than they deserve for their performances.  Fielding-wise, they look somewhere in the vicinity of average.  In short, there's just nothing this Padres team does exceptionally well.

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2011 has seen an invasion of at least occasional 6-man rotations, with the Rays, White Sox, Yankees, and Royals all trying it at one point or another.  D-Rays Bay has a nice article about it, including some past research by Tom Tango and colleagues in The Book.  Here's an excerpt:

On 3 days rest (113 starts) pitchers had a .369 wOBA against and the same group of pitchers had a wOBA of .352 on 4 days rest.

There were 4,456 starts where the pitcher had exactly 5 days of rest and the wOBA against was .346. On 4 days of rest the same pitchers had a wOBA against of .350.

There were 645 games where the pitchers had exactly 6 days of rest and the wOBA against was .355. On 5 days of rest the same pitchers had a wOBA against of .346.

Got that?  Said again another way, it's:

Going from 3 to 4 days rest drops wOBA .17 points.

Going from 4 to 5 days rest drops wOBA .04 points.

Going from 5 to 6 days rest raises wOBA .09 points.

(a lower wOBA against is better for a pitcher...means a lower OPS against, just measured better)

So you get a large advantage by going from 3 to 4 days rest (that's a typical 5-man rotation, four days off per pitcher), and a very small additional advantage by going to 5 days rest (that'd be a 6-man rotation).  And going to 6 days rest you have a drop-off, probably because pitchers are rusty.

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The Rockies come to town today.  In many ways, the Rockies are a very similar team to the Reds.  Like the Reds, they are pretty much out of it, being 10 games behind the Giants (to the Reds' 9.5 games behind the Brewers).  Like the Reds, their overall record is substantially worse than their overall team stats indicate they "should be" (Rockies W% is 43 points behind their component winning percentage, Reds W% is 52 points behind their component W%).  And like the Reds, they have been something of a disappointment this year compared to where many (or at least I) expected them to be.

Their hitting numbers are almost exactly the same as the Reds', though they've done that while playing in Coors' field half of the time.  Great American Ballpark is a hitters' park, but it has nothing on Coors'.  Their starting pitching has matched up to the Reds fairly well on the season-level, although currently their rotation is absolutely ravaged by injuries and trades.  Finally, there's a lot of disagreement among the fielding metrics about the Rockies' fielding.  nFRAA has them way above the Reds, but otherwise they are rated as somewhere between average and well below average.  My favorite two stats right now are nFRAA and my own FIP-BsR, and an average of the two pegs the Rockies as pretty much average.  That's about the best I can do.

We'll see what happens on the field, but the Reds should be a pretty strong favorite in this series.  They have the better offense, better fielding, and the Rockies' rotation is in total shambles.

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I posted this on twitter yesterday, but here's my frustration with this season in a nutshell: The Reds are 53-55.  If they had just played to their Pythagorean Record (or their component W%, for that matter), they'd be 58-50, on pace for an 87-win season, and 1.5 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers.  Five losses is the difference between legit contention and pretention.

I don't know why the Reds have fallen short of that mark.  A lack of leverage-able shut-down relief pitching is probably part of it.  And maybe a few managerial decisions.  Unfortunately, a lot of it is probably also just bad luck.

Things that are not a problem:

• Hitting.  The Reds are 4th in the league in wRC+, 3rd in OBP, 4th in SLG, and 2nd overall in runs scored.  That's better than I expected in the preseason.
• Hitting with runners in scoring position.  Reds are 2nd in NL with a .773 OPS with RISP.  This really is not an issue.
• Fielding.  Reds have the 2nd-best UZR, 3rd-best DRS, 3rd-best Defense Efficiency Ratio, and 3rd-best in FIP-BsR (my home brew fielding statistic).
  

Park Factors at Minute Maid Park (LHB/RHB)

Position Players

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After opening the week with offensive futility in Pittsburgh, the Reds return to Great American Ballpark in search of some offense this weekend.  It won't be an easy task: they are taking on one of the best pitching staffs in the league.  The Braves' starters rank 3rd in xFIP-, while their bullpen ranks #1.  But, hey, it can't be much worse than 1 run per game, can it?

While the Braves' pitching is outstanding, their offense is not nearly as good.  They have fairly average power, but they haven't gotten on base well this year, resulting in well below-average hitting.  But their pitching is so good that the Braves rate out by all measures as a very good ballclub.  Perhaps they've overachieved a tad in terms of their record...but when a team has a bullpen like this, you might expect to see them beat their Pythagorean record by a game or two because of how well that talent can be leveraged.

It's worth noting that the Reds' offense dropped below 100 for the first time this year.  That's still pretty good given that they're an NL team (pitcher hitting is included), but it's the lowest it's been all year.  They still rank 4th in the National League by wRC+, and are tied with the Cardinals for the lead in runs scored.

GABP Park Factors from statcorner.com (LHB/RHB)

wOBA: 103/103
HR: 120/133

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The Reds head off to face the upstart Pirates to begin the week.  The Pirates are one of the more interesting teams this year, having been picked to finish at the bottom (or near the bottom) by almost everyone at the start of the season.  And yet, somehow, they are a half game back of the Brewers, and are one of three teams ahead of the Reds in the NL Central.

The Pirates have a terrible offense.  And even then, they have injuries and absences that weaken it even more for this series.  But their pitching has been strong (though performing well ahead of their peripherals), and they have proven to be a good fielding team (a major departure to the last several years).  Despite their record, I think that the Reds have performed better as a team.  The Pirates' pitching has had far better results, but I don't see much to indicate that they have actually thrown better.  The Reds, on the other hand, have a clear advantage on offense and probably are a slightly better fielding team as well.

Park Factors for PNC Park (LHB/RHB)

wOBA: 100/98
HR: 99/73

I've never seen this before, but if statcorner.com's numbers are to be believed, PNC Park is an absolutely brutal place for right-handed power hitters, at least in terms of home run numbers.  

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The first series following the All Star Break sees the Cardinals return to Great American Ballpark.  We just faced this team two series ago, so not much has changed since our last preview.  

The Cardinals have been the best offensive team in the National League (the Reds are 4th by wRC+, which adjusts for park effects), so they hold an advantage there.  They also have had a substantially better rotation than the Reds (though both teams have seen their numbers worsen over the past two weeks), but a slightly inferior bullpen.  The Reds hold a clear advantage in fielding, which probably amounts to between 3-5 wins at this point in the season.  It's an enormous gap that should negate the advantages the Cardinals possess.

Overall, actual record aside, these two teams look very evenly matched.  The Reds hold a slight edge in Pythagorean record.  The Cardinals hold a slight advantage in component statistic-based winning percentage.  And they are dead-on tied in 3rd-order winning percentage.  Hopefully it will be enough to see the Reds win the series and start climbing back toward the top!

Great American Ballpark Park Factors

via StatCorner.com (LHB/RHB)

wOBA: 103/103

HR: 120/133

I'm surprised, because historically, I've seen GABP favor left-handed batters on home runs because of the shorter fences that direction.  I almost wonder if they have it backwards...

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After looking like they were poised to take a step forward, the Brewers have lost 7 of their last 9 and are now a game behind the Cardinals in the NL Central.  Prior to this losing streak, the Brewers' overall team numbers made them look like the clear favorites in the division.  Now, they look pretty comparable to the other top tier of teams in the division (meaning the Reds and Cardinals--I'm not sold on the Pirates).

By record, they have a two-game advantage over the Reds.  But interestingly,  BPro's other overall measures of team performance--Pythagorean record (run differential), component winning percentage (based on stats), and 3rd-order winning percentage (components, plus adjustments for strength of schedule) show the Reds ahead of the Brewers.

Offensively, they're quite good, with terrific power (though mediocre on base ability).  After park adjustments, they probably have the hitting advantage over the Reds.  Pitching-wise, they have terrific peripheral numbers--terrific--but their results haven't been much better than the Reds.  Part of the issue might be their fielding, although the data are pretty split.  UZR and DRS have them as average to slightly above average.  But FIP-BsR and DER have them as below-average.  I trust the latter more than the former these days, and have always thought of the Brew Crew as a bad fielding team this year and in years past.  But there's uncertainty here.  

Overall, these teams seem very evenly matched.  I'd give the Brewers a small edge because of their at least theoretical advantage on offense and pitching.

Park Factors via Statcorner.com (LHB/RHB)

Runs: 100/97
Home Runs: 118/103

Miller Park favors lefties, and is a great place for them to hit homers.  Other hitting events tend to be depressed, however, resulting in average run scoring.

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After avoiding a sweep in a rough series with Cleveland, the Reds begin what is a huge week against the Cardinals and the Brewers.  The Cardinals come first.  They have been the #1 offensive team in the National League thus far, and despite the loss of Adam Wainwright they have still had a top-tier pitching rotation.  They have not, however, had a good bullpen, and their fielding has left something to be desired.

Aside from their regular season record being substantially better, overall--and this is largely because of the fielding differences between the two clubs--they look to be a very close match for the Reds.  The Reds actually have the advantage in Pythagorean record/run differential (barely), while the Cardinals (barely) have an advantage using component statistics.

Looks at the lineups, pitching, and bullpen follow below the jump.

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I did a Q&A exchange with Lewie Pollis of WahooBlues.com to preview the Reds/Indians series.  Here are his answers to my questions.  You can find my answers to his questions here.  Thanks to Lewie for reaching out and initiating this!

RR: The Indians are currently tied for first in the AL Central with the Tigers (as of Thursday afternoon prior to the end of the Tigers game) after being picked to finish 4th by many in the preseason.  I'm sure it's been a fun ride thus far.  What do you see happening over the rest of the regular season?

WB: It's definitely been a fun ride, but I think we've already climbed the biggest hill on this metaphorical roller coaster. This team definitely has the talent to win the division and I'd say it's better than even money that they at least hold on to second place, but barring a major deadline deal that would require the kind of mortgaging the future that the front office wants to avoid I think the Tigers have to be the favorites now. Still, I'd call a .500-plus season a great success for the franchise.


RR: Asdrubal Cabrera's .204 ISO: fluke, or does Orlando Cabrera deserve the Hitting Coach of the Year award?

WB: He's a little small for a slugger (6'0", 180) and he's never shown this kind of power before, but I think the improvement is legit. It's totally within the realm of possibility that a 25-year-old player would start to develop more power, and he's performing exactly as his luck-neutral numbers would suggest. Also, the jump doesn't seem quite as dramatic when you consider that he was struggling with injuries when he posted an .071 ISO in 2010 (he was at .130 in 2009—still a big difference, but at least it's closer).

I'm happy to give all the credit to Orlando—after being told ad nauseum that his impact can't be measured on the field (where he's been below replacement-level), I'm thrilled to latch onto any quantifiable evidence of his clubhouse contributions. [Ed: I haven't seen Asdrubal say it, but Orlando Cabrera may have something to do with this apparent change in approach. -j]

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The Indians come to town tomorrow, and the Reds hope to repay them for the three game sweep they received in Cleveland last May.  I wish I had done one of these profiles then so I could compare it now, but looking over this Indians team...I just don't get it.  

Their offense is pretty much dead-on average, so the Reds should have the advantage there (remember, the Reds' totals include pitcher hitting, while the Indians' do not).  The Reds get on base more, and have at least comparable home run power after park adjustments.  The Indians do have a small edge in pitching (both rotation and bullpen).  But the Reds hold what could be a massive advantage in fielding: depending on your metric of choice, the Indians' defense rates anywhere from average to putrid.  

All of this is reflected in the Indians' secondary records.  While their .532 winning percentage has them tied for first in the AL Central, their Pythagorean record, component Pythagorean record, and 3rd-order winning percentage all indicate that they have produced more like a .500ish team.  And that's a .500 team who arguably has had players playing over their heads.  

The Reds, on the other hand, are increasingly looking like a team that has gotten results that are poorer than their actual performance...and that bodes well for the rest of the season.  The biggest problem, the rotation, feels like it's been on the upswing lately, and if nothing else is finally healthy.  The offense is probably a bit overrated, but is still quite good.  And their fielding is top notch.  In a vacuum, this Reds team looks better than the Indians, especially playing by NL rules.  

Let's look at the players.

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The Reds continue their tour of the AL East by taking on the Tampa Bay Rays to start the week.  It really doesn't get any easier.  While the Reds' Pythagorean record is good, and far ahead of their overall winning percentage, BPro's other ways of estimating team winning percentage--based on component statistics, and then components plus adjustments for opposition quality--show the Reds are playing only slightly below their mark.  The Rays, on the other hand, show strong agreement across the board.  They're good, and are currently two games behind the Yankees in the AL East.

The Rays are constructed much how I expected the Reds to work this year (note: this is not how they have, in fact, operated).  Their offense is about average: good power, but weak on base skills.  Their pitching, and especially their rotation, is quite good and has gotten outstanding results.  And their overhauled bullpen, while not strong, has been adequate.  But what really makes the Rays tick is that this is hands-down the best fielding team in baseball, and really are on a tier by themselves.

The Reds match up very well on offense (remember, the Reds' stats have pitcher hitting included in them, while the Rays' do not).  And while the Reds' fielding isn't in the Rays' class, they are in the thick of it for the title of second-best in baseball.  But the Reds pitching just isn't there.  And least not so far.  Let's look at the players.

Probable Pitchers

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After facing off with the Blue Jays and Yankees over the past week, the Reds fly to Baltimore and face the weakest team of the AL East this weekend.  The Orioles looked to be on the upswing after a strong finish to last season, but have unfortunately continued to underachieve this year.

Offensively, they are a fairly close match for the Reds: they've gotten on base a tad less and don't run the bases as well, but the power has been comparable.

Pitching-wise, they also seem comparable to the Reds.  The rotation has been pretty solid, putting up better ERA numbers than the Reds.  The Reds, on the other hand, may have an advantage with the bullpen, although xFIP would say the Orioles relievers have actually performed better despite much worse results.  

The biggest difference between these two squads, however, is their fielding.  The Orioles look like a really bad fielding team, especially when judged by the hit-location data.  The Reds, on the other-hand, are pretty clearly above-average, and may be among the best in the league.  This difference may mean as much as 5 wins at this point in the season, which is pretty amazing.  

On the Reds side, the biggest news may be the impending arrival of Zack Cozart at SS for this series.  Cozart should be a plus defender, and might offer a better stick--and at least more power--than what we've gotten from Janish and Renteria.  It'd be hard to get less from our SS position, so I'm glad the Reds decided to finally try him out (assuming they, in fact, do!!).

Oriole Park at Camden Yards Park Factors (LHB/RHB):

wOBA: 105/106
HR: 119/129

Probable Starters

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The Reds host the Yankees to start the week.  This is normally not a Good Thing for the Redlegs, and you can see why in the table to the right.  This team is loaded with hitting talent.  They get on base, they hit for power, and as we'll see in a bit, there are very few weaknesses here that can be exploited.  They also sport a strong bullpen (especially at the back end), and, in a departure from the Yankees teams of a few years ago, they are also at least average in the field.

If they have a weakness, it's their starting pitching.  But even there, where a lot of folks expected them to be a complete disaster after CC Sabathia, they've been surprisingly solid, posting better ERAs and xFIPs than the Reds.  

Fortunately, at least this time around, I think the Reds actually match up pretty well.  They get to face the Yankees' three worst pitchers, and the Yankees don't look to have a great neutralizer in the bullpen for the Reds' main offensive threats--Votto and Bruce.  Well, aside from Mariano Rivera.  It really is about the best case scenario for the Reds when going up against the Yankees.

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The Reds begin a dreaded West Coast Road Trip today, and start things off with a four-game series against the defending champion Giants.  The Giants went through a rough stretch that "ended" about a week ago, losing 6 of 8 and falling briefly out of first place in the NL West.  Entering the series, however, they have a two-game lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks.  BPro puts their postseason odds at 88.4%, which is the second-highest in baseball.  The Reds are up slightly at 12%.

They are an interesting team.  FanGraphs wRC+, which adjusts for park, ranks their offense dead last in the league.  This is especially true now, as they are without the services of Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval, Brandon Belt, and Mark DeRosa.  None are expected to return for the Reds' series, though Sandoval is expected back next week and could potentially make a surprise appearance.  

It's good that they have that weakness, because their pitching is amazing.  Their starting pitching ERA- is better than their xFIP-, which happens pretty much every year and is probably due to more than just the fact that their park is not conducive to the home run (though we don't know what, in fact, is the deal).  And that starting pitcher ERA- is, in fact, the best in the league.  Similarly, their relief pitching is also outstanding by all accounts.  Fielding-wise, they are probably somewhere in the vicinity of average, so the Reds can make up a little bit of ground there.

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The Cubs return to Great American Ballpark riding a 6-game losing streak, most recently at the hands of the division-leading St. Louis Cardinals.  This should be a very winnable series for the Reds.  The Cubs are a below-average hitting team, with terrible baserunning and fielding, and the worst starting pitching in baseball (by results, anyway...and the Reds do face their two best pitchers).  Their one "strength" on the team is their bullpen, but even that is pretty thin after their two studs.

The Reds, on the other hand, are coming off a tough beating at the hands of the Dodgers over the last few days.  The offense continues to rate well in its raw numbers, and don't be deceived by the 101 wRC+: that number is 3rd in the NL, after park adjustments (they're also 2nd in OPS+ at 102).  Their fielding is also top notch, so what's holding them back is their pitching.  The starters continue to have better peripherals than results, while the bullpen flips that trend. if anything, the pattern we see with the bullpen is what we'd expect for the staff as a whole, as the fielding should push the numbers that direction.  No such luck, at least not so far...

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The Dodgers come to town 5 and a half games behind the current NL West leaders, the Arizona Diamondbacks.  While they do sport a strong rotation--one that features at least three pitchers who are better than anything the Reds have to offer--their position players have collectively been dreadful.  They don't get on base, they don't hit for power, and they do not field well.  

On top of all that, their bullpen is something of a disaster right now.  They've lost Broxton, Kuo, Jansen, and Padilla to injuries (physical and/or mental), which has them mixing and matching at this point.  ...  not that any of those four were performing particularly well anyway.

This is a winnable series.  The biggest challenge will be dealing with the Dodgers starting pitching, as their top three guns will all throw in this series.  But their offense is weak, aside from a few key guys, and their fielding has nothing on the Reds.  

See below for probable pitchers and a lineup comparison.

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A look at Joey's batting line this year indicates that he's having a terrific year, posting a .423 wOBA and a 165 wRC+.  That's phenomenal production, and the point of this piece is not to complain.

But what is interesting is how he's done it: last year, he hit .324/.424/.600.  This year, he's hit .330/.463/.515.  His ISO is down from .276 last year (and .245 in 2009) to .186 this year.  His walk rate is up (20% vs. 14% last year), and his strikeout rate is down (18% vs. 23% last year).  His HR/FB ratio is 12.5% this year, down from 25% last year and 19% career.  

I see three possible explanations for this.  

1. Pitchers just aren't giving him anything to hit, so he's walking and isn't able to use his power as much as he has in previous years.  

2. Votto has changed his hitting approach, being more selective, and trading power for getting on base.

3. It's just a random fluctuation and is not the result of a specific cause, per se.

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After a tough series with the Braves, the Reds return home to face off with the Brewers.  They're now 5 games behind the Cardinals, dead-on even at .500, and need to right the ship.  Thanks to Cueto's performance on Sunday, the Reds should have something that at least resembles a rested bullpen entering the series.  The Brewers, on the other hand, are streaking the other way entering the series, having won seven of their last eight.  Some quick hits on the matchup:

1. BPro's various win estimators (and, of course, the team's actual winning percentage) indicates that the Brewers should be a slight favorite in this matchup, all things being equal.

2. The Reds have gotten on base a bit more than the Brewers, while the Brew Crew have just a tad more power.  After park adjustments, total team performances this season are close to even on offense.  The Reds' baserunning prowess, however, amounts to the equivalent of almost a one win advantage thus far for the Reds.

3. The Brewers, as expected given what they did this offseason, have a clear advantage in their starting rotation.  The Reds catch both major additions in this series in Greinke and Marcum.  It doesn't help matters that 2/5 of the Reds' rotation is currently not with the team, of course.  The Brewers' bullpen has also been a strength for the team, and probably have collectively thrown the ball a tad better than their Reds' counterparts.

4. Where the Reds should hold a meaningful advantage is with fielding.  That's as was expected this preseason.  And while it probably doesn't quite close the pitching gap, it's a big deal and helps a lot.

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The Reds take on the Atlanta Braves this weekend, who are currently in third place, 3.5 games behind the first-place Phillies. If anything, the Braves look to have underperformed to date: all three win estimators (all from BPro) indicate that the Braves have played well enough to rank at the top of their division, above even the Phillies.  

Obviously the Braves would like to continue to beat up the struggling Reds, who, after playing above their win estimators for most of the year, seem to have come back down to earth over the last few weeks.  It's been tough to watch.

So far this year, the Braves and Reds are pretty much opposite teams.  The Reds have been an offensive powerhouse.  While some of that is due to their home park, and obviously they have been struggling of late, their offense still rates as above-average.  The Braves, on the other hand, have been miserable at the plate, with a .303 wOBA and an 89 wRC+.  The Reds are a top-notch team on the bases, while the Braves are merely average.

Where the Braves have done well, however, is their pitching.  Their rotation has been superb, just as it was last season.  And their bullpen has been unreal, posting the best ERA- and second-best xFIP- in baseball.  In contrast, the Reds' starting rotation has struggled...although if you believe xFIP, they haven't thrown nearly as badly as they appear.  The bullpen has been better, though in truth an 87 ERA- is only an average pen. ... and xFIP isn't as bullish on our pen as I'd like.

Fielding-wise, the numbers right now are split on both teams.  The Reds have done better in metrics like UZR (although DRS rates them roughly equivalent).  The Braves have measured better in more whole-team metrics like DER or, a personal favorite metric of mine, FIP-BsR.  I believe in the Reds' fielding, although they've had enough time Gomes in LF and without Rolen at 3B that it could be that the average-ish numbers are correct.  With those situations rectified, the Reds should be an excellent fielding team.

Probable Starters

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After a long intermission, today I'd like to continue the Scouting Reds Pitchers series (at least for today!) and take a look at the Reds' closer, Francisco Cordero.  

So far this season, Cordero has a 1.77 ERA and is 8 of 9 in save situations.  And he's currently sporting a best-since-2007 walk rate of 2.66 bb/9, and is allowing a career-best 55% ground balls.  He's had a great start.  But I continue to be worried about him.  The main reason is his strikeout rate, which has declined from ~10 k/9 from 2003-2008 down to 7.9 in 2009, 7.3 in 2008, and just 5.8 k/9 this year.  His 2011 numbers are also deflated by a very lucky .207 BABIP.  His FIP is 3.94, which is right about where it was last year (fewer k's and bb's, more hr's).

Cordero is in the final guaranteed year of his contract with the Reds, as the Reds hold a $1 M buyout of his $12 club option.  I'd be surprised to see them pick up that option; I've long been of the opinion that the Reds will be lucky to have Cordero survive in the closer role through the life of the guaranteed portion of the contract.  But let's take a look at what he's doing.

Pitches

Below is a plot showing his pitches in 2010, as well as one for 2011.

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