The Bucks play their typical stingy defense, but the difference between the Bulls and the Bucks is that the Bucks have their three best defenders at the spots that most need guarded against the Heat.

Mbah-a-moute can defend all three positions but in this game he's on Chris Bosh and he's capable of leaving the paint and shutting Bosh down all over the court. Livingston has a lot of length against Wade and Delfino is the right size and competent defensively against LeBron.

Just like the Bulls they have huge advantages offensively at the 1 and 5, the 5 being the most surprising given its Drew Gooden who has seemingly given up his penchant for weird face and neck hair and looks matured on the court. He's having a great season with a 19 PER.

Where the Heat have trouble with an athletic hot shooting also-ran.

Where the Heat have trouble with an athletic hot shooting also-ran.

Where the Heat have trouble with an athletic hot shooting also-ran.

Where the Heat have trouble with an athletic hot shooting also-ran.

And remember... if the Bobcats make the playoffs, the Bulls get their pick THIS YEAR!!!!!

And remember... if the Bobcats make the playoffs, the Bulls get their pick THIS YEAR!!!!!

And remember... if the Bobcats make the playoffs, the Bulls get their pick THIS YEAR!!!!!

And remember... if the Bobcats make the playoffs, the Bulls get their pick THIS YEAR!!!!!

Sarver is dead weight. As Adrian Wojnarowski wrote on Tuesday, he brings no value to the NBA. None. People bitch about Eddy Curry, but Eddy Curry isn't holding the league hostage. You want to blame Eddy Curry for the lockout? Robert Sarver is Eddy Curry, a man who spoiled the trust of those who paid him and does absolutely nothing to improve the game. People joke about NBA players who buy Maybachs they don't need, jewelry instead of bonds. Let me tell you this: no player in NBA history has squandered as much money as Robert Sarver has just on the Sunssince he bought in. You wonder how a player like Antoine Walker can go broke after making $108 million in the NBA? Ask how Sarver can do the same thing on a much grander (if less stylish) scale. Ask how the mighty Maloof brothers can crush their family's empire and take a whole city's sports identity down with it. Ask how Bruce Ratner can burn through stacks of money like firewood without even one eye on the product on the court. But the biggest difference is that when Antoine Walker burns his loot, the guy has to shimmy down to Puerto Rico and to the D-League to making a living. He has get back on his feet on hustle. Sarver? He gets a bailout. The Maloofs? They pawn off one of their dad's businesses. Ratner? He remembers that the Nets he lost so much money on were simply Vaseline for a real estate project in Brooklyn that will make his company billions more than an NBA team could ever be worth.

Continue reading this post »

12 - 1 in the last 13.12 - 1 in the last 13.12 - 1 in the last 13.

12 - 1 in the last 13.12 - 1 in the last 13.12 - 1 in the last 13.

12 - 1 in the last 13.12 - 1 in the last 13.12 - 1 in the last 13.

12 - 1 in the last 13.12 - 1 in the last 13.12 - 1 in the last 13.

12 - 1 in the last 13.12 - 1 in the last 13.12 - 1 in the last 13.

12 - 1 in the last 13.12 - 1 in the last 13.12 - 1 in the last 13.

12 - 1 in the last 13.12 - 1 in the last 13.12 - 1 in the last 13.

Celtics @ Knicks -- Playoffs return to MSG

Magic @ Hawks -- Will Hawks fans show ?  No ?  Ok.  Will Horford play in the 1st half ?

Lakers @ Hornets -- How many beads will Kobe collect on Bourbon Street ?  Enough to cover his face.

 

I want the home team to win in all cases.  I need some upsets to get excited about.

I want the home team to win in all cases.  I need some upsets to get excited about.

I want the home team to win in all cases.  I need some upsets to get excited about.

I Don't Like Jeff Foster.I Don't Like Jeff Foster.I Don't Like Jeff Foster.

I Don't Like Jeff Foster.I Don't Like Jeff Foster.I Don't Like Jeff Foster.

I Don't Like Jeff Foster.I Don't Like Jeff Foster.I Don't Like Jeff Foster.

I Don't Like Jeff Foster.I Don't Like Jeff Foster.I Don't Like Jeff Foster.

I Don't Like Jeff Foster.I Don't Like Jeff Foster.I Don't Like Jeff Foster.

I Don't Like Jeff Foster.I Don't Like Jeff Foster.I Don't Like Jeff Foster.

I Don't Like Jeff Foster.I Don't Like Jeff Foster.I Don't Like Jeff Foster.

I Don't Like Jeff Foster.I Don't Like Jeff Foster.I Don't Like Jeff Foster.

I Don't Like Jeff Foster.I Don't Like Jeff Foster.I Don't Like Jeff Foster.

Despite the ever present quotes of, "Gotta play better" and "Still not there yet" etc, etc, the Bulls finished the season strong with an 18 - 2 record (or 21 - 3).  I wanted to take a look at some of the individual and aggregate numbers behind those last 20 to gauge what kind of momentum the Bulls have going into the playoffs.

The most eye-popping number is clearly Derrick Rose's shooting efficiency in the last 20.  This graph gives a great visual representation to it, but it was 53% True Shooting for the first 61 and and 59% for the last 20.  Given that efficiency played such a large role in the DRose MVP debate, it should be noted loudly that he 'answered' that critique just as squarely as the free throw attempts critique earlier in the season.

Overall, there were few Bulls that didn't improve their TS%.  Boozer dropped, but we all knew he had been struggling offensively, and Kurt Thomas dropped, but his volume is too low to say that he's been playing poorly.  Chicago overall had a TS% of 53% for the first 62 and 56% to close out the season.  Also note that Kyle Korver ended the season in a 3pt% swoon and Taj Gibson's final 20 games has been more than solid.  Given the struggles of Noah and Asik, praise needs to be shouted from the roof tops for the greatest backup PF/C in the league.

The Bulls finished the season as the 11th ranked offense in the league at 108.3 ORtg, better than the Magic and Celtics and trailing only the Heat and Knicks in the Eastern Conference.  It gets a little harder to argue that Derrick Rose was the leading scorer on a mediocre offense (as yfbb pointed out numerous times, stupid argument) when the Bulls ended as the third best offense in the East.

Continue reading this post »

There is a common trope being trotted out before the playoffs that states, "The Bulls can't win it all because the Bulls Core has never won a playoff series together".  While its true that the Bulls current roster has never won a playoff series together, the statement feels really wrong based on the overall experience of the Bulls.  

Luol Deng has a series win as a member of the Bulls as well as 21 games of experience (although he missed out on 7 games in the greatest playoff series loss of all time).  Joakim Noah and Derrick Rose both have 12 games of experience and Taj Gibson 5 games over the last couple years of squeaking into the 8th seed.

But after the Bulls that were hold overs from last year, a different picture emerges.  Kyle Korver, Carlos Boozer and Ronnie Brewer all had playoff experience with Utah, Kurt Thomas has been around a while and has an entire season's worth of playoff games including a Finals appearance with the Knicks and Keith Bogans has been on some playoff teams, Orlando and San Antonio, that both reached the second round.

But if you want to really talk about playoff experience and really talk about it seriously, there's only one person you need to talk to, Brian Scalabrine.  The White Mamba has 17 series wins notched on his bedpost and 5 separate Finals appearances with both the Celtics and the Nets.  If there was ever a lucky charm its Scalabrine and that should counter any sort of gnarled conventional wisdom about winning a playoff series previously with the "Bulls Core".

 

Player	Playoff Games	Series Wins
Derrick Rose	12	0
Luol Deng	21	1
Carlos Boozer	44	4
Kyle Korver	32	2
Joakim Noah	12	0
Taj Gibson	5	0
Ronnie Brewer	25	1
CJ Watson	0	0
Kurt Thomas	89	8
Keith Bogans	18	2
Brian Scalabrine	39	17
Totals	297	35

[Thanks to jockstrapnoah for today's game preview. Early start, 6, on CSNChicago. -ed.]

The Spurs win and the sublime 42 poured in by Rose less than a week ago set off all sorts of buzz about MVPs and contenderships.  That buzz was washed clean away by dunks, cars, choirs, beibers, and the like, even before a deluge of West to East talent shifts erased all memory of the Bulls’ last on court accomplishment.  But they play the Raptors tonight, and actual Basketball is welcomed.  

Until Thursday at 4pm basketball is a sideshow to the tweets of NBA analysts and those that pose as such, but there are a number of stories that make this game interesting.  Noah is back, thank god.  Bulls basketball ratchets up a notch both in pace and entertainment when Noah hits the floor, but unfortunately his minutes are going to be monitored as he plays his way back into shape (reach into the back of the closet for the tie you were thinking of throwing out, Thibs, just in case).  The Bulls are expecting to be somewhat out of sync with the return of Noah, and they have 48 minutes of basketball to get back in sync before tomorrow’s colossal match-up against the Heat.  

Apparently James Johnson is in Toronto and will be playing tonight, as a Raptor.  James Johnson gives the Raptors something they’ve been missing since Linas Klieza went down with a nasty sounding knee injury in January, a small forward.  Sonny Weems (Bulls 2nd draft pick in 2008, seriously) has been playing small forward and had 19 points last night in a loss to Charlotte, but he’s a little small for that at 6’6”. Julian Wright just hasn’t been getting many minutes...and that’s it as far as the position goes.  This is James Johnson’s big break, going to a team missing a player at his position, but even when given the objective of developing talent rather than winning, dumb turnovers and missed rotations are something that no coach can tolerate.  Play smart James.

I fully expect a Bulls blow out victory while tuning up for tomorrow’s TNT fireworks.  Raptors HQ is your Raptors Head Quarters. [and check their piece on the incoming JJ, with my quotes! -ed.] 

Go Bulls.

[Thanks to JockstrapNoah for today's game preview. Game starts at 7 on The U. I'll be at the UC tonight, so expect some completely disposable live-tweets -ed.]

There are four teams in the NBA that the Bulls have yet to beat, the Knicks, the Spurs, the Hawks (haven’t played them) and tonight’s opponent, the Charlotte Bobcats.  Are the Bulls aware of this ?  Sounds like it:

"We want revenge," he said, an edge to his tone.

"They create matchup problems," Rose said. "But if we play aggressive and with energy, that game should be very easy for us, especially because we've been wanting to play them."

via Bulls Confidential

Revenge, confidence bordering on overconfidence, and labeling an opponent easy ?  This is new territory for Rose, providing bulletin board material for the opposing team, but as a top 5 team they have a target on their backs regardless and I don’t mind confidence from the MVP candidate.

The Bobcats are 1 ½ games out of the last playoff spot and don’t need an extra reason to get up for this game.  They demolished the Lakers last night and are now 15 - 12 since Paul Silas took over for Larry Brown.  With Silas they are 4 points better on offense and 2 points better on defense.  The Bobcats are a dangerous team that aside from Chicago and LA count Boston among their marquee wins since the coaching change.  

The usual suspects are stepping up for the Bobcats, Stephen Jackson is averaging 21 pts on 54% true shooting over the last 15 games and Gerald Wallace has 11 boards in the last six after languishing around 8 rpg for most of the season.  Tyrus Thomas was playing well up until tearing the meniscus in his left knee on January 20th (can he recover from a athleticism robbing injury like this?) and is out until the final games of the season.  

Recent weeks have seen the emergence of the other Gerald, Gerald Henderson.  After riding the pine for Brown last season and experiencing knee soreness early this season, the 6’5" Blue Devil SG 1st round 12th pick of the Bobcats has garnered twice the minutes from Silas (22) as from Brown (11) and has responded by getting 15 pts/40mins and had 18 last night against the Lakers.  He’s not a 3 point shooter, which disqualifies him as a potential fit next to Rose but he has potentially everything else, athleticism, scoring and defense.

The Bobcats bring ample athleticism and present another bad matchup for the slow Bulls front court, but for all that DJ Augustin is the player that has killed the Bulls.  When drafted in 2008 he was mentioned in the same breath as Rose with some PER loving analysts rating him higher (old yfbb story here) .  While Augustin can no longer be placed in the same tier, he remembers who knocked him out of the NCAA tournament and proves it by playing Derrick tough like the 22 and 12 game he had on January 12th.  

The cards are stacked against the Bulls tonight, this is the first game back after a long road trip, they had a 2 day lay off to gather some rust, the Bobcats are an athletic tough match-up for a slower but dominant Bulls defense, the Bobcats are playing for the playoffs and the PG Augustine is always keyed on the battle against his draft mate, but in Rose I Trust.  If Rose says this is a Revenge Game to win with ease I believe it and I believe he’ll come out aggressive.  Bulls by 10.  

Rufus on Fire is going to give you the goods on the Bobcats but I object firmly to being associated with Kid Rock, the dude is from Detroit, Mr. Arnott, and I’m sure you know there is some antipathy between that city and our own.  Maybe you can put up some R. Kelly or some Chaka Khan clips, I mean, they did go to school at Kenwood Academy same school as Nazr Mohammed and Chaka Khan did play with the band, um, Rufus.

 

Last April I did a post on this prototype of a graphing app I had created (thanks again for the feedback).  Since then I’ve been working to build a site around the concept and here it is, www.futuregraphs.net.  This site provides the capability to make a graph and then share it through either embedding or a link.  

Last April, the prototype had only Bulls stats, but this new site has all stats from this year and last year and is updated on a daily basis, so if someone creates a graph, that graph is automatically updated throughout the year.  For instance, the graph I’ve embedded below is Derrick Rose’s 3pt%, illustrating what we’ve all seen this season, a legit 3pt shot and seemingly game by game improvements in his ability to make it.  If you come back to this post tomorrow morning the graph will show the results of the Indiana game (please rise higher, 3pt %).  



The graph works on a rolling average.  So each data point in the graph will represent what Rose has done over a 10 game period prior to that data point.  And that’s what constructs the line.  The rolling average is set at 10 games,  but you can adjust that in the expanded panel (click more >>>>), and by doing so you can easily find the best 5 game stretch or if you prefer the best 3 game or 15 game stretch that the player has had this season.  

There are plenty of features built into the display, for instance it is also easy to construct before/after splits by using the cursor and clicking when you hover over the horizontal bar at the bottom.  Click around, you’ll find others.

When you go to www.futuregraphs.net you can choose multiple players and stats and also include some timeline events like trades and injures to help you make your point (if you are trying to make a point).  As examples I’ve created some graphs here.

Bulls Rebounders
Bulls Rebounders TRB%
Bulls SG Mins
Chicago’s turnovers
Noah’s Injury Chicago Defense 2009

It definitely doesn’t replace other basketball statistics site like www.Basketball-Reference.com but my hope is that it augments the nba stat-o-sphere and allows you to view the intra-season ups and downs of the players and teams in a new way.  Or at the very least its fun to play with and a good time waster.

 

(I apologize if you encounter bugs/errors.  I only tested on firefox and chrome.  Because I think y'all are smart enough to not use Internet Explorer. )

[Thanks to Jockstrap Noah (and anti-thanks to Ozzie Montana!) for today's game preview (sign up! And do them when you do!). Game is at 7 on CSNChicago -ed.]

Free Throws.  Free Throws.  Free Throws.

Oklahoma is explosive, the darlings of the league even if Durant hasn’t matched the expectations raised by willing the US to a gold medal.  They are the youngest team in the league, have great coaching and have jumped out to a 14 - 7 record, good for only 6th in the West.  We stole their defensive coordinator coach in Ron Adams and it seemed early that this defensive defection had hurt the team on that end and it bears out in the numbers.  The Thunder sport a 108.8 defensive rating whereas last year they were more stingy at 104.6.  

The offense is still kicking (also at a 108.8 rating, weird) due to one aspect of their collective game in which they dominate.  Free Throws.  They shoot more FTs than anybody (.332 FT/FGA) and they are better at shooting FTs than anybody (85.3% !!!).  Russell Westbrook is the primary culprit, he’s at once both the mirror image and analog of Rose.  Super Quick, Freaky Hops, Aspiring Jump Shot.  Its the same, but where Rose uses his athleticism to avoid all arms and bodies so as to get the ball in the hoop, which seems like the goal of the game, Westbrook just launches himself at the rim and dares you to try and stop him.  And then he flails.  And then he gets the whistle.  He averages 9 freebies a game and Durant, the superstar he is, averages 9 freebies per game also.  

So you thought the Refs were bad in the Rockets game ?  Expect a more perfect meltdown in the game thread tonight as Rose is mauled with no calls, and Westbrook/Durant are getting to the line every trip down the floor.

On the Bulls side, they are treading water until the 14 Games of Domination later this month.  Boozer is working his way in and should get plenty of offensive looks.  I could care less about his defense tonight because Jeff Green just doesn’t scare me.  If they are going to Jeff Green the whole time that is good for the Bulls, the refs will keep their whistles in pocket.  Bogans will get the start again and the Bulls will spot OKC 10 points, because 4 on 5 doesn’t work in this league.  My hope is that Thibs is savvy enough to not rock the boat through this rough stretch but he’ll make the change at the start of the 14 Games of Domination.

OKC played last night and destroyed the Warriors in the first quarter.  Thanks to Stephen Curry with 39 points the Thunder couldn’t pull its starters and the top 4 starters played relatively heavy minutes (JG:41 , KD:37, RW:37, SwissMister:35).  This gives me the slight hope that the Bulls can outwork the Thunder and maybe Luol Deng gets hot from 3 like in that Blazers game.

The enemy blogs at Welcome To Loud City.  I’ve driven through and it seemed pretty quiet there.  Somebody told me on Saturday that OKC named a street after home town heroes the Flaming Lips.  Except it wasn’t a street it was an alley.

Today, Henry Abbott of True Hoop writes a blog post on advanced basketball statistics and specifically rebound percentage, headed by a picture of Noah with the caption reading, "By old metrics, Joakim Noah has been the best. But why use old metrics?".  You know this got my attention, as a Bulls obsessive with a Noah specific moniker, any perceived slight of Noah is going to get my attention.  Here’s the argument from True Hoop in a nutshell:

For example, he addresses total rebound percentage, which he says is "an estimate of the percentage of available rebounds a player grabbed while he was on the floor. It is an improvement over rebounds per game because it takes into account opportunities, which are influenced by the pace that a team plays and the number of missed shots that a team forces."

Once you know that number exists, it almost seems silly to obsess over rebounds per game, right? I mean, you don't even know how many minutes each person played, let alone how many rebound opportunities they had. If you're trying to assess who is best at getting the ball, you want to know how many chances they got to try, right?

I’m definitely a stat geek, and for whatever reason I spend a good portion of the day at Basketball Reference.  So if anyone’s obsessing over statistics, its me and people like me, so I’m sympathetic to a love for the stat that is TRB%, but I take issue with denigrating the simpler ‘Rebounds Per Game’.  Especially when its used like Henry’s about to use it.

That old school list (which is also, literally, old -- it's through November 10) tells us that the league's best rebounder, by far, is Joakim Noah at 15 per game. Some others in the list: Luis Scola (fourth), David Lee (fifth), Pau Gasol (seventh), Lamar Odom (eighth) and Kevin Garnett (tenth).

On Kubatko's excellent Basketball-Reference, I looked up the statistic he prefers, the league leaders in total rebound percentage. Things are pretty darned different. By total rebound percentage, Noah is fourth, and Reggie Evans is the guy well ahead of the pack, followed by Kevin Love and Marcus Camby.

Fair enough, I hear ya Abbott.  Reggie Evans has been a great rebounder this season, he’s not going to get you ANY points during the game, but yeah, when it comes to the one thing he does well, he does it really well.  So I’m convinced, TRB% is useful.

I linked to the online version, but I read this on newsprint, where Kubatko's article appears on page B15, less than an inch away from page B14's "NBA Leaders" listings. Papers have been carrying forever. Four sets of top ten lists, three out of the four expressed the old way. The dumb way: Per game.

Wait a second.  Per game is the dumb way?  You want to have a list in the NY Times, the most widely read paper in the world, that puts Reggie Evans at the top?  I’m not sure if Henry knows this, but Reggie Evans sucks as far as NBA basketball players go.  Why?  He’s one dimensional.  If he’s leading the league in rebound rate, why isn’t he on the floor more?  Because one dimensional players don’t get as many minutes as well rounded basketball players, just ask Kyle Korver.  Or maybe he’s got other skills besides rebounding, but can’t stay on the floor due to foul trouble, well, thats another knock on Reggie Evans.  Or wait, maybe he gets winded after 5 boards and has to take a breather, and thats why he plays less minutes and can’t succeed in the dumb way: Per Game.    In general, per game stats tell a larger story than the stripped down % stats.

What the NY Times is doing is summarizing the NBA season up until this point.  It gives you the lists, Assists/game, Points/game, and Rebounds/game.  These lists are statistically simple, and simple is important, but what these lists are really saying is:  These are the players that are having an impact on the league this season and here is my proof to back that up.  Reggie Evans is not having an impact on the league this season, and should not be included in any NBA summary.  

Whats worse is that, the target audience of the sports section of the NY Times and other more local papers isn’t Henry Abbott or the patrons of Blogabull.  Its people who want to know whats going on in the NBA this season but who’s main activity isn’t poring over every single nba talking point and critiquing the personnel decisions of all 30 nba teams, especially the increasingly irrelevant northern franchises.  These people don’t get inside jokes like "KAAHHHHN!".  And that's fine, they likely have better things to do, and if they say to themselves "I’d like to catch an NBA game, I should observe this Evans chap, he’s at the top of a list" they will be underwhelmed, bored, and they won’t check back into the nba again until someone who watches games clues them into which teams and players are good to watch (hint: Joakim Noah).

EVEN WORSE, is that Kids are a huge demographic of the NBA and probably get more of a kick out of it than any adult would feel comfortable with, but try explaining TRB% to a kid.  Try to explain why their hero, who they just saw demolish Reggie Evans last night, isn’t ranked higher on a list they don’t understand.

TRB% is an estimate anyways, it is less accurate than Rebounds per game.  It doesn’t measure what happens when Noah or Evans is actually on the floor, but makes assumptions about the minutes they played and takes into account things that happened when a specific player was on the floor as well as when a specific player was off.  As a tool to use in evaluating players and their varying strengths and weaknesses ?  Awesome.  As a tool to explain reality?  Eh.  Its a statistic.

Kubatko, the main interviewee of the post, seems to get that, but Henry Abbott takes the trees for forest approach in reading into what is indeed a very measured quote.

Kubatko is very measured, but you can feel it, just a little, the urge to toss aside some of the sillier older metrics. "With the help of statistics like these," says Kubatko, "fans can get a better, more complete view of the players and the teams than they would with a cursory look at the traditional box score."

Lets look at what the Bulls have right now.  The team as currently put together looks like a team with elite rebounding potential.

09 - 10 TRB%
Joakim Noah  20.4
Carlos Boozer 19.4
Kurt Thomas 15.8
Taj Gibson 15.4
Luol Deng 10.7
Melo 9.4

Look at this.  In TRB% Boozer was 4th in the league last year (Noah didn’t qualify based on minutes). The top 4 being:

1 Camby 22.2
2 Howard 22.0
3 Dalembert 21.8
4 Boozer 19.4

At 20th position is Chris Kaman holding it down with a 15.8.  As context, Karl Malone and Alonzo Morning both have a career mark of 15.9.

Yeah, our top four rebounders have top 20 rebounding talent.  Considering that Gibson gets to go against NBA benches as opposed to starters and I expect his rate to go up.  Asik as an athletic young 7’1” should be able to bring them boards down too.  Luol Deng, while not having the rebound pct of the others, is known as a solid rebounding foward and should complement this group well.

What we’re looking at is an elite rebounding team.  Not just beating opposing teams on the boards but crushing them.  The counter argument I expect is that the Bulls led the league in rebounding last year, and they did in rebounds per game, but the differential between them and their opponent was 1.9, 9th best in the NBA (Cleveland was first at 4.0 with LeBron contributing a Deng like 11.1, and LeBron’s teammates never stepped up?).  So the Bulls missed a lot of shots, and their foes will miss a lot of shots too, its just a matter of who picks up the most loose misses and the team as stands looks like a team that could steamroll other teams with rebounding, which would be something to take pride in and which will lead to wins.

Blogabull and community, I've been working on this flash application. It is a graphing application that displays player statistics as a rolling average over the course of a season. You can choose a player and a statistic and then get back a line graph that hopefully sheds some light on the story of the season for a particular player or team.

In the graph below you can see Derrick Rose's rolling average for points over the season and how he improved dramatically from the start to the middle but has unfortunately tailed off at the end.

I'm calling this version 0.5 and it has some obvious flaws (the 'more' button works some places in some browsers but not others). I'm posting it now first because I think it will provide some value to my fellow blog-a-bullers. Second, because software can't be good without good feedback, so please leave comments positive or otherwise about the functionality already here, or whatever functionality that you see missing. I hope to include any feedback left here into future versions.