SBNation.com User Blog: Joecatz

Catz Corner: When I was a kid, we traded the RIGHT WAY.

Joecatz — Mon, 20 May 2013 16:26:23 -0000

On the way to work this morning I had this conversation, as I do just about every morning with my dad.

POPS: You see that game?

ME: Just like they scripted it in spring training. 4 pitch walk to Delmon, pick off of the pitcher pinch running, and Kratz and Galvis home runs off Aroldis Chapman.....

POPS: I don't know, I think Galvis is the real deal.

ME: He might be. its a small sample dad but...

POPS: Oh give me a break with your saber-metric shit. If he's 3/4 the hitter he's showing he is, he's gonna be an all star.

ME: Well, that remains to be seen dad, he needs to play, that's for sure.

POPS: What they need to do is trade Rollins for an OF, and give the kid a shot.

ME; It doesn't work like that, dad. If they move Rollins, they're not gonna move him for an OF, they'll move him for prospects.

POPS: Why?

ME: Because.

POPS: Because WHY??? That's the problem with trades now.

ME: What do you mean?

POPS: What I mean is it used to be you traded a major leaguer for another major leaguer. You have a SS, and another guy who can play SS, you need a RF, you trade your shortstop to a team that needs a SS and has a RF they want to get rid of. It's pretty damn simple. There has to be a team out there with an extra OF, who could use Rollins.

ME: the Dodgers work.

POPS: Who?

ME: Well, probably Ethier or Crawford. They have Yasel Puig at AA tearing it up and both of them block him.

POPS: Ethier stinks and hes LH, and can't hit lefties to save his life. But Crawford would be good for this team.

ME: Call Ruben Dad.

POPS: Ok.

end....

It's almost too simple a solution to work but its one that deserves exploring.

Two teams, with massive payrolls, that match up need wise. Two teams that might be sellers but might be buyers. Two teams that hate the idea of conceding anything.

Yet, a system that says "Trade for Zach Lee to build the farm instead."

Well lets explore that for a second Turn back the clock to last summer, when everyone said we needed a 3B. And everyone and their mother looked at Mike Olt, and his 289/404/577 clip with 24 HRs through mid July as the savior.

Here are three AAA slash lines nearly a year later.

139/235/236 with 1 HR 9 BB 32Ks through 81 PA

271/326/413 with 4 Hr 13 BB and 41 Ks through 172

226/297/274 PA with 0 HR 10 BB and 20Ks through 118 PA

Take a minute and look at those links.

Granted, small sample sizes apply here, but your eyes do not deceive you, (Though they are deceiving him).

Michael Martinez is hitting better than Michael Olt. And our AAA 3B prospect looks like he might be able to contribute next year.

Meanwhile, the OTHER 3B we ended up trading for from the same team, who cost a fraction of what Olt would have cost, is currently sporting a .392 OBP, and has 23 walks. 10 fewer than he had all last season, and has made just two errors in eighty chances.The same guy that everyone said was a mistake, washed up, etc.. WHY DIDN'T WE GO FOR OLT!!!

Now, I'm not pretending to make a case here that Mike Olt won't figure it out and have a successful career. But there is DANGER involved in deeming a not ready prospect a ready prospect and savior, and wanting to trade for that guy, if you expect him to make an immediate impact at the big league level. Even a top 50 guy.

Mike Olt would have cost WAY more than Jimmy Rollins last summer. The same will hold true for this summer, with any top prospect. And if the Phillies do decide to sell, the prospects they'll likely get back wont be as cant miss as Mike Olt.

And try and follow my logic here: If you're gonna sell, your selling to either

a) restock the system and you go out in free agency to find the guys to play at the ML level hopjng that the guys you develop turn out

b) to restock to go after someone in a trade by using those prospects.

So using that logic, why not try and go old school here?

I mean, whats the point in moving a guy like Rollins for a lottery ticket or two that may or may not help you land a bigger fish? Other than to free up space to go after A guy like Jacoby Ellsbury or Curtis Granderson at 20mm per year?

Why not just TRADE HIM NOW FOR AN OF making 20mm a year through 2017, who blocks the path of a potential phenom currently destroying AA pitching on a team that has a $217,000,000 payroll? That needs a SS?

That's exactly the kind of deal the Phillies should make. There's more to consider here. Both guys have trade protection, The Dodgers would likely prefer to move Ethier, etc...

But its an interesting idea. And one that makes too much sense to actually happen.

Catz Out.

Tyler Cloyd to Start Friday

Joecatz — Wed, 08 May 2013 13:12:34 -0000

Per numerous sources including resident go to guru Jim Salisbury The Phillies have opted to go with Tyler Cloyd Friday to take Roy Halladays spot in the rotation.

While many casual fans may have been hoping for Adam Morgan (or Jesse Biddle...Ugh...) The decision to go with Cloyd over Adam Morgan is the right one. Morgan has 6 triple A starts under his belt, has struggled a bit of late, isnt on the 40 man, would have his clock started early, and needs more seasoning. When he does get the call, it shouldn't be like this, it should be for good because he's ready.

While Cloyd struggled early this season, he threw a gem last time out, striking out ten and walking none over 8 innings. He was 2-2 in six tarts last season for the Phillies, with a 4.91 era, and as Salisbury mentioned, can be homer prone, having allowed 8 long balls in 33 innings at the big league level last year.

Whether this is a spot start or something more temporarily permanent remains to be seen, but with the Phillies not needing a 5th starter again until May 21st, even if Cloyd stays up, expect him to shift to long man duties for a few weeks. Depending on the news today regarding Doc, and how Lannan progresses, expect to see a different starter down the line if this is more long term, whether thats Morgan, Ethan Martin, or someone from outside the organization.

Catz Corner: Royplacement Options

Joecatz — Mon, 06 May 2013 13:53:58 -0000

With the news of Roy Halladay likely being placed on the DL this week, and John Lannan still recovering from his injury, the Phillies suddenly find themselves in need of a fifth starter. Barring a trade or waiver pick up, there are 4 or 5 options internally that will garner consideration. The only silver lining here is that based on the Phillies upcoming schedule (they have two off days next week, on the 13th and 16th) they only NEED a fifth starter once (on Friday) between now and May 21st. That bit of luck will certainly play into the decision a little bit.

The Choices?

Tyler Cloyd

Currently sporting a 1-3 record in 6 starts at Lehigh Valley, Cloyd has posted 12 BB to 32Ks in 35 IP this season. He started six games for the big club last year, and put up a similar line, with 30Ks to 7 BB in 30 innings pitched. He's the safe choice, the choice with the most experience, and he's on the 40 man roster. He's scheduled to start for the Piggies on Wednesday. Cloyd could push back to Friday, or the team could simply call him up to pitch on Wednesday, and push Pettibone back two days.

CATZ ODDS: 2-1

Ethan Martin

The centerpiece of the Shane Victorino deal last year, Martin has struggled so far this season, posting a 7.63 ERA with 20 BB to 23Ks in 22 innings over 5 starts. He's surrendered 19 earned runs and hasnt pitched into the 6th inning yet. Aside from being on the 40 man roster, while Martin has much more upside than Cloyd, a call up wouldn't make much sense right now.

CATZ ODDS: 15-1

Adam Morgan

The Phillies 3rd round pick out of Alabama in 2011, Morgan has skyrocketed up the organization depth charts. After posting a 5/1 K/BB ratio and 10.2 K/9 at Clearwater in 21 starts, he was promoted to Reading where he held his own last year. On the season at Lehigh, he came out of the gate strong in his first two starts but has cooled off considerably recently. While Morgan, scheduled to start for Lehigh Friday, could seamlessly slot into Halladays spot, and may be the sexy choice right now among fans, he hasn't been pitching to the level you'd like to see recently for this to be a no brainer call. In addition, because he isn't on the 40 man roster (even though there's an extra spot), coupled with the idea that this may be just a spot start situation, giving Morgan the call costs the team service time, a roster spot and money that likely delays his big league debut this time around.

CATZ ODDS: 5-1

John Lannan:

Lannan is technically eligible to come off the DL now. He hasn't pitched since mid April, and has yet to start a rehab assignment. Unlikely.

CATZ ODDS: 50-1

BULLPEN CALL

Here's where it gets interesting. BECAUSE of the way the schedule shakes out, combined with the west coast road trip, the Phillies could opt to call up a bullpen arm like Joe Savery, or Justin DeFratus, and just let Valdez, Horst and Durbin handle the game Friday. If they made that decision, they would not need to call up another starter until May 21st, at which point Lannan, or even Halladay, if the news is not as bad as we are all assuming, could feasibly be ready to go.

CATZ ODDS: 3-2

Barring another issue, Hamels, Kendrick, Lee and Pettibone can go three times through on regular or extended rest if one of these options only starts once. If you use logic here:

1. Martin and Morgan don't make sense NOW. With Martin, he just hasn't been sharp, and with Morgan, the variables outweigh the needs here. The team is better served letting both of them get three more starts at Lehigh before considering what to do. If three weeks from now, Lannan still isn't ready, and Halladay can't go, then you can think about one of these guys at that time.

2. Cloyd is the logical choice, however when you look at the Diamondbacks roster, and see 5 LH bats, including Jason Kubel, Miguel Montero, and a super hot Didi Gregorius, the idea of Cloyd serving up taters in Arizona gets a little suspect. A bullpen game with Valdez, Horst, Savery, et al... may actually be the better option.

In any case, none of the choices is Roy Halladay, and unfortunately all of them are better options than the Roy we've seen recently. I wouldn't expect whoever gets the call to be around for more than one start unless it's a reliever.

The next three weeks are going to go a long way in determining where this season is really headed. And at the end of the day, the team needs to hit.

If its my call, I go with the bullpen for one start, but I'd expect to see Tyler Cloyd make his 2013 big league debut this week. What do you think, good readers, and do you even care?

Catz Out.

Catz Corner: Howard Day to Day and the Front Office Are Idiots

Joecatz — Fri, 19 Apr 2013 20:12:39 -0000

just a quick rant for the weekend.

Per Todd Zolecki Ryan Howard is day to day with a sore groin. Day to day means a lot of things. it could mean day to day or it could mean he misses 10 days before being Dl'd.

Dom Brown has a bad back. Freddy Galvis is starting in left field for the second consecutive day.

Tonight's lineup

Rollins SS

Galvis LF

Utley 2B

Young 3B

Frandsen 1B

Mayberry RF

Revere CF

Quintero C

Halladay P

Now I'm not a manager, or a GM, but can someone explain to me why

1. Frandsen, who has logged all of 4 career games at 1B is at 1B

2. Young, who played 77 games at 1B the last two seasons for Texas is at 3B

3. Joe Savery is called up from Lehigh, to face three days of RH batters that crush him

4. Darin Ruf, who plays OF and 1B is still in Lehigh Valley?

I mean a six year old can see that the team needs another bat a hell of a lot more than another arm right now, especially a RH one.

Your bench consists of Carerra, Nix, Kratz, and a not at full strength Howard and Brown.

For three games against the Cardinals.

They knew Brown was hurt, maybe they didn't know about Howard till today but still. Could have easily sent another reliever down, kept Savery, and had Ruf make the drive in time for the game.

Stupidity breeds idiocy here.

That said, expect the offense to explode tonight.

also, just to make you feel better:

Per Jim Salisbury...

Yay Guys!

Catz Out.

Joe Savery Recalled

Joecatz — Fri, 19 Apr 2013 15:13:41 -0000

The Phillies have replaced John Lannan on the active roster with LHRP Joe Savery. Savery has pitched stellar out of the bullpen for the Iron Pigs so far.

7.2 innings pitched. 2 hits, 0 BB, 11 K's, 0 earned runs.

That said, The Cardinals lineup features just two left handed starters, in Matt Carpenter and John Jay, neither of whom have severe splits.

In addition, right handed batters have crushed Savery to the tune of a 286/371/516 line with 3 HR 8BB and 10Ks over 71 batters faced at the major league level. Compared to his 200/227/341 1 HR 0 BB 8 K lifetime major league line against LH batters over 41 major league innings lets hope charlie doesn't use him too much this series, because, well, I don't see how he's useable.

Then again, one would have to actually LOOK AT THAT when they make these decisions so... yeah.

Not to beat a dead horse, but with Domonic Brown ailing, and the Phillies set to face Jaime Garcia tonight, its a little baffling that, given Savery's struggles against RH batters, and the Phillies lack of bench depth, that they opted for a AAAA loogy over say, Darin Ruf for a few days.

Corresponding move to add a starter coming monday.

Discuss.

John Lannan to DL; Joe Savery Recalled

Joecatz — Fri, 19 Apr 2013 15:35:50 -0000

The Phillies have sent John Lannan the Disabled List with a strained left knee. A callup that will disappoint and enrage the general fanbase is imminent.

Ah, Springtime. The season when a person's fancy turns to "Aggghh! How could I forget how brittle these baseballing &^$#s are!!" Just in case you were feeling at all rosy after last night's 11-2 drubbing at the hands of the Cincinnati Reds, the Phillies have announced -- and it has been reported friend of the network Eliot Shorr-Parks -- that heretofore acceptable innings eater and thick brow haver John Lannan has been put on the 15-day disabled list with a strained quadriceps tendon in his left knee. That sounds really painful, but other than that, I have very little insight about what an injury to one's quadriceps tendon entails. Best case scenario, Lannan is back when eligible in 15 days, ready to give the team a ~4.00 ERA and stability from the fifth rotation spot. Worst case scenario is, well, worse because we don't really know what that might be. Presumably this is relatively minor.

The Phillies are expected to make a move, likely calling up one of Tyler Cloyd or Jonathan Pettibone from Lehigh Valley, though that is total speculation on my part. Local heartbreaker Adam Morgan is likely not in the front office's plans, as he is not on the 40-man roster, his arbitration clock is likely at a premium, and he threw 100 pitches last night (h/t JoeCatz and Cormican). So get excited for a new guy to post low strikeouts, moderate walks, and a fairly okay ERA.

Okay, that's cynical, but I'd like to take a second to vent a bit about the fifth starter position. I know that many reasonable comments to this news will boil down to "What real value was Lannan honestly going to give the team? Dude was a 1.1 WAR pitcher in his last full year." And those arguments are actually pretty fair. But the fifth starter isn't meant to inspire reasonable discourse. Read my player preview for Lannan in the Lindy's Annual -- you'll find under the rhetoric a fairly hopeful subtext: "Say! Maybe this guy puts it all together, lowers his walk rate, and delivers on a fairly low risk salary! Maybe he's even better than we thought all along." The fifth starter is basically just someone to hope on -- maybe they're young and will put it all together; maybe they've tweaked something in their delivery; maybe they just needed a new pitching coach -- but the sad truth is that there are far more Kevin Slowey stories than Cliff Lee stories. Fifth starters are not usually heroes at the end of the season, but rather just ancillary bits.

And I at least could have accepted that quicker with Eyebrows O'Lannahan! Now I have to talk myself out of wishcasting Pettibone or Cloyd. Ah baseball! Ah humanity!

Clear Counts, No Walks, Can't Win: Phillies 3, Cardinals 4.

Joecatz — Fri, 19 Apr 2013 02:02:59 -0000

Oh how I wish I was trying to catch up on Friday Night Lights right now. The Phillies wasted another great start tonight, as Cole Hamels went 7 innings with 2 BB and 8 K's in what should have been a pitchers duel with Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright.

AND you would think it was, except here's the thing. Wainwright gave up NINE hits, in 8 innings, and struck out four, on a grand total of 87 pitches. 59 of which were strikes. He faced (by my count) 28 batters and threw a total of 28 balls.

And struck out four.

You don't win baseball games by letting a teams ace throw 87 pitches in 8 innings, especially when he's not missing bats.

But I digress.

Cole and Wainwright went toe to toe in the first three innings, both surrendering two hits in a scoreless fashion. In the top of the fourth Hamels got into a little trouble by walking Matt Holliday to lead off the inning. Three pitches later, Allen Craig hit a routine fly DOUBLE. I don't know what else to call a play where John Mayberry LITERALLY FELL DOWN, running his route. Perhaps there was a mermaid in the stands. Perhaps he had finally figured out the last sentence for that novel he's been writing, who knows, but it was... Something. So, of course, with runners on 2nd and 3rd and no outs instead of a runner on first with one out, on the next pitch, Yadier Molina hit a FOUL BALL DOUBLE, which, is what you call it when the umpire rules a foul ball a double, and the Cards are up two zip.

It should be noted that since Mayberry NEVER TOUCHED THE BALL, but FELL DOWN, Craig's at bat was ruled a hit, not an error, so Cole gets the earned runs there. And that folks, is why ERA is a bogus statistic.

Hamels then cruised the rest of the way, retiring the next nine batters. Flash forward to the sixth inning. A Rollins Double, and a young Freddy Galvis, getting the start in left field BECAUSE THEY NEEDED HIS BAT IN THE LINEUP, with a hard hit opposite field double of his own, to drive in Rollins, Chase Utley Single, and Boom. Tie ball game.

Then BOOM. Top of the seventh. Hamels gives up a double, to David "I STILL HATE YOU SO MUCH" Freese, Jon Jay bunts him over and Pete Kozma drives him in on a fly ball to right field that Mayberry aimed in the general direction of the mermaid he saw earlier, up the line and the Cardinals take the lead again.

Seriously. Delmon Young could have played the worst game of his life and had a better game in right field tonight than Mayberry. Don't look now but if Galvis keeps hitting, he could very well end up our starting left fielder a month from now.

But I digress again and guess what? Bottom of the seventh! Kratz your hands! Kratz ties it up with a seeing eye grounder! 3-3! Were back in it.

And finally, as it should be per the book, Mike Adams comes in in the 8th, ready to lock down the bridge to Papelbon. He gets Matt Carpenter to strike out swinging and ....

Carlos Beltran takes him deep for the second surrendered home run by Adams this year.

Now not to alarm anyone, its only been two weeks, but Mike Adams gave up his second (as well as his 3rd and 4th and 5th) Home run of the season last year on September 27th. He averages about 1 HR every 25 games the past three years. This is not a guy who is prone to the long ball. He's surrendered two in 7 innings so far, along with 7 hits. It's early, but his velocity is down, he had thoracic outlet surgery, were paying him this year and next year, and I'm about two appearances away from really being concerned. As Taco Pal mentioned in an email..This is starting to smell a lot like Tim Worrell.

The Phillies mounted a little comeback in the bottom of the ninth but it fell short and boom again. 4 in row. Wrong Direction.

Again. No walks. Adam Wainwright faced 28 batters. 18 of those batters saw three pitches or less, and two of them were strikeouts. Add in the other two 4 pitch strike outs, and thats really all you need to know about the Phillies woes. You conspiracy theorist/apologists out there who wanna blame the foul ball call, well, guys I hate to say it but we deserved to lose this one.

New day tomorrow and Doc's on the hill. So... Yeah. Excuse me while I get some more pepto.

Catz Out.

Fangraph of no walks below.

Source: FanGraphs

Rapid Reaction: Phillies 3, Cardinals 4

Joecatz — Fri, 19 Apr 2013 01:44:14 -0000

Recap to follow. Feel free to discuss

Delmon Young Closes in on Rehab Assignment: A Good Phight Stream!!

Joecatz — Mon, 15 Apr 2013 17:52:43 -0000

Delmon Young is moving ever closer playing with the Phillies. *drinks bleach*

The Good Phight is a Philadelphia Phillies blog that features both news and analysis. So it's a sign of how intensely I dislike Delmon Young that I issued a weekend long blackout on Young related news. I was hoping that he'd be abducted by aliens or go to live in the wilderness or magically turn into an elephant.

Sadly, it was not to be.

Delmon Young is inching ever closer to a rehab assignment. Philly.com's Matt Gelb reported on Friday that Young played two consecutive days and should begin his assignment sometime this week. It's officially time to begin DelmonWatch 2013.

Here are a few choice Amaro quotes from Gelb's piece:

"He did OK," Amaro said.

High praise indeed!

"Delmon isn't going to come here unless he can play right field," Amaro said. "If he can't play right field, he ain't coming.

"The bat doesn't concern me nearly as much as how he's moving around and how well he's playing in the outfield. He's going to hit. I'm not that worried about that part of it. I'm more concerned about if he's going to be adequate in the outfield. So far he's been OK."

Please, use "OK" a few more times. It makes me feel so good.

Catz Corner: The Ghost of Nate Schierholtz continues to haunt me

Joecatz — Mon, 15 Apr 2013 17:29:32 -0000

Just a quick note to brighten up your day with the Delmon Young News.

Nate Schierholtz is on fire

After homering yesterday, Nate's line currently sits at .343/.410/.649 he's sporting a .286 ISO to go along with that and has already amassed 0.6 fWAR

The entire Phillies team sits at 1.2

the entire Phillies outfield currently has put up -0.4 fWAR

Michael Young has 0.5

Chase Utley 0.4

So Nate Schierholtz has put up twice as much value as the rest of the team sans Utley and Young.

For $2,250,000

Which he has already earned in 12 games.

Drink the bleach deep Liz. Drink it deep. I've said it once and I'll say it again. Worst move of the offseason.

Catz Out.

Catz Corner: Is Roy the answer to the problems with Roy?

Joecatz — Tue, 09 Apr 2013 14:40:54 -0000

While one Roy was struggling to find his identity last night, another Roy was tweeting about wanting to come back to Philly.

Yup. Roy Oswalt started tweeting from his official account last night. Three tweets, within minutes of one another.

Tweet one:

Alright everybody this is officially Roy Oswalt

Tweet two:

Just a update, I haven't felt this good since 2010

Tweet three:

I would love to come back to Philly, loved my time there, amazing fans

Is this news? Who knows. But to openly come out and say, I'd like to come back to Philly, while Roy Halladay is pitching like Roy Hobbs after he got shot in "The Natural" is more than mere coincidence. It's an open message to Ruben Amaro that says "Hey Ruben, here I am".

Who knows, maybe this is the new way of negotiating contracts in the information age.

This may not turn into anything, but at the same time, Roy Oswalt would be an interesting pick up. Why? Well, for one, the simple fact of the matter is that the biggest issue with the Phillies right now isn't so much Roy Halladay or Cole Hamels early struggles as it is that Roy Halladay is no longer the guaranteed 7 inning guy he used to be. He's a 5-6 inning pitcher if his command comes back and his cutter is still gone. And the biggest most glaring weakness on this team is the utter lack of middle relief options.

What the Phillies are sorely lacking is a bonafied lights out long man. Signing Oswalt would allow him to take that role, while he builds up arm strength. It would also give the Phillies some needed insurance if Halladay is indeed broken.

Anythings better than Chad Durbin.

And Tractor injuries aside, if Roy really is in 2010 form, thats the guy who threw 211 innings between Philly and Houston with 55 BB to 193 Ks and finished 6th in the Cy Young voting.

and even if hes NOT, while his 2012 numbers in Texas were less than stellar, as a reliever Roy Oswalt struck out 20 batters to just 1 BB in 12 innings over 8 games last year.

Chad Durbin struck out 49 in 61 innings. to 28 BB.

Sign Roy Oswalt Rube. and make him your long man.

So Phillies fans, what do you think?

Maybe the Roy we need is the one we don't have.

Comment away.

Catz Out.

Poll

Is Roy Oswalt the answer?

Only if he stays away from his tractor

15 votes

Only if he teaches Halladay how to ride a tractor

25 votes

You mean as our 5th OF, right?

21 votes

Chad Durbin sucks

135 votes

196 votes | Poll has closed

2013 Phillies Predictions: Joecatz

Joecatz — Fri, 29 Mar 2013 15:17:55 -0000

I have to admit, when the boss-lady asked all of us to put together our predictions for the season, I got more than a little excited. I mean, come on, Catztradamus LIVES FOR THIS:

So without further ado, here are my 10 BOLD PREDICTIONS for 2013.

1. Ben Revere is the most popular athlete in Philadelphia by October.

The adorable smile. The fun tweets, and the explosive hustle and grit combined with someone other than "that bum Rollins" leading off will entrench Revere into the hearts of Philly fans.

2. Michael Young will be the most productive 3B the Phillies have had in a decade.

.295/.350/.460 with 20 HRs and 100 RBI, passable defense. 3 fWAR, and people will be thinking about bringing him back for 2014 before all is said and done.But what about the other Young?

3. Delmon Young will have no positive or negative impact on this team at all.

Why? Cause he won't be here long enough, or play enough for it to matter. I'll give you a couple reasons why starting with:

4.Ryan Howard and Domonic Brown will hit more home runs over the season than Delmon Young starts games in a Phillies Uniform.

By July 30th, Delmon Young will be an afterthought. He'll either play above his pay grade and get traded, or play below it and get released, but he wont finish the season in Red pinstripes.If you don't think that happens then maybe:

5. Kyle Kendrick strikes out more batters than Delmon Young gets hits on the entire season.

Young has never had a season where he had fewer than 112 hits where he played 108 games. Kendrick struck out a career high 116 batters in 159 innings last season. he had 8 K's to 2BB in 14 spring innings and has looked sharp. I've been on the Kyle train since before the train had steam, and this is his year. If you don't believe that one?

6. Chase Utley has TWICE AS MANY HBP on the season than Delmon Young has HRs in a Phillies Uniform. He will also play 145 games, put up 6 fWAR and sign a three year contract extension before the trade deadline.

Utley gets hit 19 times. Young hits 8 HR max before hes dealt or released because:

7. Darin Ruf will force his way on to the major league roster by June.

Ruf started to find his stroke at the end of the spring and a month or so in Lehigh in the OF will be all the Phillies need to see before giving him a shot. Mainly because they're going to be desperate for a RH power bat on the bench. But Ruf won't be the minor leaguer to have the most impact on the team. Why?

8. Adam Morgan will end up in the rotation.

I refuse to say why. Don't ask me to. Not gonna go there. But Morgan will continue to build on his K/BB numbers and get the call at some point. And he'll stick, Vance Worley style. And he'll be the guy of the future, because I hate to say it but...

9: Jesse Biddle will be traded, along with a catcher before the end of the season.

This is inevitable, in my opinion, manly because I beleive this team is better than anyone is giving them credit for, but they'll be one piece short. They always are. but it'll happen because:

10: Ruben will trade for Andre Ethier or Carl Crawford at the deadline and for once, it will be the right decision.

Yasel Puig is forcing himself into the Dodgers OF. Ruben has cash. LA will supplement the salaries for prospects, and Biddle will be the centerpiece. Its a natural fit, they've traded before, and it will turn out to be a good deal. Seriously, it will.because:

11: THE PHILLIES WILL MAKE THE POSTSEASON WHEN THE LOLBARVES IMPLODE, AND ALL THE HATERS CAN SUCK IT!

Domonic Brown will be a force. Ryan Howard will hit lefties. Chase utley will play 150 games. Ben Revere will swipe 50 bags. Hamels, Lee and Kendrick and HE WHO SHALL NOT BE NAMED will pitch their asses off, and the bullpen will end up being the best thing about this team. They'll be hot in October. and maybe just maybe, we'll wheeze out one more.

Ya Gotta Believe.

Catz(tradamus) Out.

Your 2013 Phillies Opening Day Roster: Inciarte and Aumont make the team; Stutes out.

Joecatz — Sat, 30 Mar 2013 16:23:03 -0000

The Phillies have announced their opening day roster and there are a few mild surprises.Barring any last minute changes or acquisitions:

STARTING ROTATION

RELIEF PITCHERS

Raul Valdes (L)

Jeremy Horst (L)

Phillippe Aumont

INFIELDERS

OUTFIELDERS

John Mayberry Jr.

Ender Inciarte

Catchers

Erik Kratz

Humberto Quintero

The biggest surprise here is probably Michael Stutes being optioned to AAA in favor of Raul Valdes or Phillipe Aumont, and Ender Inciarte making the team. Inciarte, a rule 5 pick has never played a game above high A ball.

The Phillies opted for 12 pitchers, and 5 bench bats, two of which are Freddy Galvis and Ender Inciarte.... That means means on days Laynce Nix starts, Inciarte and Galvis are basically your LH Bats off the bench...

YEAH, #shouldofkept

Delmon Young starts the season on the DL, as expected, and Humberto Quintero gets the nod over Steven Lerud while Chooch serves out his 25 game suspension.

There's always a chance that one of these spots could change as other players are released this weekend, and its no secret that Ruben Amaro would like to upgrade at catcher or in the OF still if possible.

When Delmon Young is healthy, there will be an interesting decision to make. Inciarte is the odd man out, most likely, but stranger things have happened.

By the way, the last time Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard all stepped on the field together on opening day, the Phillies beat the Washington Nationals 11-1, and secured their first of 97 victories en route to a date in the NLCS.

Just Saying.

Kickoff is in 54 hours!

Play Ball!!

2013 Phillies Player Preview: Domonic Brown

Joecatz — Thu, 28 Mar 2013 14:32:41 -0000

2012: MLB (56 games) 235/316/396 5 HR 26 RBI 0 SB

2012: AAA (60 games) 286/335/432 5 HR 28 RBI 4 SB

Bill James: (148 games): 274/347/445 17 HR 77 RBI 12 SB

Steamer: (102 games): 265/336/432 12 HR 47 RBI 4 SB

Oliver: (482 PA): .262/.332/.427 14 HR 58 RBI 9 SB

Zips: (128 Games): .265/.335/.461 18 HR 60 RBI 12 SB

The statistical lines above say more about trying to preview what will happen with Domonic Brown this year than anything I can write or has been written. Just like Brown himself, they are literally all over the place. We all know the drill here. Former top prospect in the game, shoved around, beaten down, broken luck, can't catch a break for three years. I don't know if theres a player that has been so polarizing in the Phillies Universe in a long time. Depending on who you talk to its "He's a bum and we should trade him" or "Ruben and the organization have screwed this guy up so bad who knows what he is anymore".

Brown played pretty regularly after the trade deadline, to fairly pedestrian results. The organization had lost so much faith in the kid that they signed a bizzaro version of Brown's worse case scenario in Delmon Young, and tapped Darin Ruf, who had played a total of 39 games in the OF at no higher than AA to compete with him this season coming into the spring. Brown had to earn his spot.

2013 Spring Training: 93 PA 376/430/615 7 HR 17 RBI 6 BB 14 Ks

Take all of the projections, all of last year, throw it out the window and the spring line is the only one that matters here kids.

Yeah, yeah yeah... I know. Spring training doesn't matter, spring training statistics don't matter, blah blah blah. Here's the thing though. In this case they do. Why? *

Well, lets break it down a little.

1) If you watch his swing in the spring, vs last year, he’s done two things with Henderson and Joyner: a) he’s lowered his hands and “leveled” his swing plane. Which usually accounts, when successfully, in more line drives, and more power to all fields. B) he’s using a two handed finish. Think utley, and 2012 Edward encarnacion.

2) When you see real changes, AND the player has real results (don’t care about the home runs, I care about the plane of the ball off the bat, the increased power, and the success of the changes) that’s something to get excited about.

3) When you see those changes AND know that said changes are coming from a very disciplined batter like Brown, who can also draw a walk or ten, has excellent patience at the plate, and is rarely fooled by off speed pitches, your left with one thing to fix

Experience.

Namely, adapting to pitchers, and adapting to them adapting to you.

So guys, seriously, that's why youget excited about THESE spring statistics. It’s ok. They’re real.

That’s how you combine metrics with reality.

But more than that? For the first time in his career Dom Brown comes into opening day as THE MAN. The job is his. Over the next year, we're finally going to find out what and who he is.He didn't just win the job he completely and utterly lapped the field three times over.

Now the question becomes:

Is he the guy who, in 200 minor league games from 2009 to 2010 crushed 34 HR and stole 40 bases, while compiling a .315/.382/.550 slash across three levels, while showing plate discipline beyond his years?

Or is he the guy who, after suffering a hamate injury that sapped his power and being bounced around the organization in favor of Hunter Pence john Mayberry and Raul Ibanez, tinkered with his swing and looked lost at the plate, and in the field for two years at every level. From 2011 through 2012, in virtually an equal number of games at both the AAA and major league level, Brown has delivered to the tune of roughly .270/.340ish/450 production with limited power (just 5 HR per year) and limited steals.

None of us know the answer here, but the thing that EXCITES me the most about this season, if I'm being honest, is that we get to have that question answered in front of us, as opposed to watching him do it in Chicago while Alfonso Soriano strikes out once a game.

Every day.

500-600 at bats

I could type 1500 words more on Dom Brown but seriously, haven't we written enough and talked enough about the guy? Now, I just wanna SEE IT!!!

Dom Brown will make his mark one way or the other in a Phillies Uniform. No more questions. No more second guessing, no more wondering what if. For Dom Brown, its walk the walk time. (but not too many walks, cause, like, you know, we don't like, like walks....)

And at the end of it all, if I only make one prediction this year, its this.

By October, If we're popping Corks? It will be because of Dom Brown more than anyone else.

*editors note: added from my comments below.

Catz Corner: The Case for Yuniesky Betancourt: Why You Want Him to Make the 25 man Roster.

Joecatz — Sun, 17 Mar 2013 16:44:08 -0000

So just a quick thought here and then you guys can get to killing me slowly in the comments.

Yuniesky Betancourt has an opt out clause coming up on March 24th. The Phillies have to guarantee him a spot on the 25 man roster or give him the ability to opt out of the deal.

Yuniesky Betancourt is a sub par defensive shortstop, and not quite an average bat at the major league level. the idea of even signing him to a minor league deal, on the heels of the Delmon Young signing, was met with a chorus of NOOOOO's from the smart fans, myself included. Regardless, he has the ability to play SS every day for a major league team, and has helped his cause to do that while Rollins was out playing for team USA. Should Ruben decide not to put him on the roster, he's gone.

That said, If I'm Ruben Amaro Jr. I believe there are only two options this week:

1. Put him on the roster

2. Trade him.

With the number of teams out there with questions at SS, Betancourt will bring back SOMETHING of value. His chances of actually seeing the field behind Rollins, Utley, Young, and even Frandsen are so minimal in the first month of the season, that eventually someone will come calling (You out there John Mozeliak?) for a guy who's started close to 900 games at SS in the big leagues. Kind of makes me wonder if Ruben didn't see this coming, when he signed him. Basically:

1. find someone to play SS while Rollins is at the WBC.

2. Hope he does well enough to pull of a deal before the season starts.

Yes folks. Yuniesky Betancourt has VALUE, and you don't just discard value when running a business. You extract value for value. The only way to do this might be to actually put him on the roster, even if you don't want to.

Why release him and let someone just pick him up for scraps? So they can let Freddy Galvis sit on the bench and collect dust to sub defensively for Michael Young a few times a week? I may be more bullish on Young than most, but I don't get that.

A note on Michael Young: For those of you who didn't watch the game Saturday, Michael Young is looking much better at third. he made five or six very good plays, and is noticeably lower to the ball recently. Eyeballing him, it looks as if he's been focusing exclusively at third base, and adjusted his fielding mechanics slightly for that. Basically, he's not trying to be average everywhere, and splitting his focus on two or three positions. All he's doing is focusing on playing third base. There's something to that. Is he an above average defender? No. But I haven't seen a butcher out there recently either. Also, from 2009 to 2011 he put up more fWAR and was a better defensive third baseman than THIS GUY

But I digress... back to Yuni: Jimmy Rollins played in 156 games last year, and started all but 2 through the end of May, and was pulled one time. Whoever the backup shortstop is, barring injury, his role is pretty insignificant until mid June. The only fear there would be Yuni starting if Rollins is hurt. (And should that happen, Galvis comes up anyway and is likely the starter) Yhe bigger point: Whoever gets the nod, between Yuni and Galvis, that guy ISN'T GETTING MUCH PLAYING TIME.

So what's better for both THE TEAM, and THE ORGANIZATION?

1. Release Betancourt, get nothing back, promote Galvis, and have him get a few AB's a start here or there (maybe over Frandsen) and if Rollins gets hurt, have Galvis and Pete Orr on the roster.

2. Keep Betancourt, let Galvis develop, and try and eventually ship Yuni to the Red Sox or Cardinals when Stephen Drew busts to avoid starting Xander Boegarts clock, or St. Louis realizes Pete Kozma isn't ready.

I'm all for number 2. Keep him for a month or so, if a deal can't get done this week.

But I'd put my money on a deal coming together before then.

And I'd bet Ruben feels the same way, and that my friends is why Yuniesky Betancourt makes the team. So when this happens (and trust me, if a trade isn't worked out prior, it will.) instead of shouting at the rooftops you should really just go meh.....

Don't be surprised to see the same scenario unfold with Delmon Young and Darin Ruf as we get closer to the deadline either, should Ruf inevitably start the season at AAA to keep Ender Inciarte on the roster. If Delmon can string together ANYTHING, Ruf finds his swing again at Lehigh and develops more in the outfield, and Brown does what we think he will, Delmon Young has the same kind of value.

Ruben may not be good at a lot of things, but he may be good for something here.

Catz Out.

2013 Phillies Player Preview: Chase Utley

Joecatz — Thu, 14 Mar 2013 02:49:22 -0000

Chase Utley

#26 / Second Base / Philadelphia Phillies

Height: 6-1

Weight: 190

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Dec 17, 1978

2012 Totals: 83 games .256/.365/.429 11 HR 45 RBI 11 SB 3.2 fWAR

2013 Bill James Projections: .274/.372/.463 19 HR 77 RBI 13 SB 122 games

2013 ZIPS Projections: .258/.362/.431 14 HR 57 RBI 12 steals 102 games 3.5 fWAR

Dear Nerds,

Chase Utley here. So I'm looking at these number thingies your nerd lord sent me and I got one thing to say. IF I ONLY PLAY 113 games then just freaking shoot me. Seriously. PUT. ME. OUT. TO. PASTURE!

Hey Bill James? You my freaking doctor now? Zippy, you my trainer? Extrapolate that shit out to 162 bitches. I ain't good at math but I'm good at hitting baseballs one of you nerds do the math but its probably something like 80 home runs and a butt-load of RBIs.

What's that you're screaming at your screen? Oh you doubt me? Guess what? I'm Chase F'in Utley and last time I checked I've played in more spring training games this season than the last three combined. I'm back, I'm healthy, the knees feel good and that's all I really need to say here. Oh wait. It's not. I'm gonna bring us a world F'in championship. So stop griping about Delmon F'in Young and start grinning about Chase F'in Utley. Guys go buy a ticket for opening day and put on a bunch of sunscreen so your pasty arms don't get tanned since I know you never leave your basement, and watch me go oppo boppo in my first at bat. Ladies, you can stare at my butt all you want, my wife won't mind. Trust me. you don't wanna miss it, cause that place is gonna freaking erupt like Pat the Bat at the back room at Mons Venus last Tuesday afternoon. (There's a lunch buffet; he enjoys it. Don't judge.) Kashmir will play 300 times at the Bank. Take that and shove it in the drawer next to your computer. You know the one. It's where your hiding the Doritos.

I'm not gonna tell you what I'm gonna hit, how many bags I'll swipe, any of that crap. 'Cause I don't care, and neither do you. Seriously, you nerds really care if I hit .250 or .270 if I'm playing every day? That's right. You don't. Don't matter. The only thing that matters when it comes to me, Chase F'in Utley is that I'm standing out at second base for nine innings 150 times this year. And guess what else? It's happening. I'm doing it, and as long as Lannan stays away from me during batting practice there ain't a damn thing nobody can do about it. Got it?

Good.

What? Oh, you want me to compare crap to like before and predict stuff and... NO. Here's the skinny. Am I as good as I was five years ago? I think so, who the hell knows. Have I lost a step? Probably. That's life. But ask yourself this: Who would you rather have out there other than me night after night, day after day?

Yeah. That's what I thought.

I missed you too Nerds.

Now go get your dog spayed. Seriously. And take him for a walk and throw her a Frisbee and stay away from that crap food they sell at the A&P. Go to a pet store. Pay for the good stuff. I mean seriously, open up a can of Chef Boyardee and eat it every day for a month and then ask yourself how you feel. That's how your dog feels when you give him that canned crap.

Now excuse me while I go get my 2,000 fungos in before dawn. Ryno's waiting on me. So step away from that damn computer and go get some fresh air nerd. Its gonna be a long season. And I plan on being there for all of it

Utley Out

Phillie Phantasy Roundup: CBS Draft Results

Joecatz — Mon, 04 Mar 2013 14:17:16 -0000

The CBS draft went down last night at 7:00 and aside from a few minor hiccups with auto drafting a good time was had by all. My Little Conies took Miguel Cabrera with the first overall pick and closer without a job Jose Valverde was the last player taken. in between, 16 teams chose 398 other players and left a few dandies dangling on the waiver wire. (yeah, like I'm gonna tell you guys who they are!)

The draft ended at 10:30. Trader Joe's updated their trade block at 10:33.

Post your rosters and thoughts on your draft (strategy, mistakes, best move, etc...) below and feel free to chime in with anything else.

A few highlights:

1. Liz Roscher DID NOT DRAFT HEATH BELL. This assures her at least a second to last place finish

2. 6 pitchers went in the first round, including both Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels.

3. The Phortress of Phortitude followed his drafting patterns of years past by stocking up on SP in the first 4 rounds. His projected FIP is 3.282 good for second place in preseason team FIP projections. The team with the lowest FIP projections? that would be...

4. TEAM Catz, who managed to wait until the 3rd round to snag a SP. He also does not have an everyday 2B... Will teams be willing to deal with the Trade guru, or will he have to figure out a different strategy this year?

5. In a huge scheduling and email snafu perennial contender and fantasy player extraordinaire RPT did not know about the draft and did not join in until about the 8th round or so. Will his auto draft philosophy work out?

6. For the second year in a row Trev"please don't let Tulo fall to me"223 drafted Troy Tulowitski in the first round. Will this finally be the year that Tulo delivers for team Trev?He put together a pretty incredible team, but Tulo is the Glue to it all.

7. Yahoo defector and bloglord WetLuzinski passed on Robbie Cano, Buster Posey, Matt Kemp, and Albert Pujols at number 7 and reached for Stephen Strasburg. Move of the draft or mistake of the year?

8. Every Phillies projected starter save one was drafted.

And in possibly the most villainous, low down, dirty, sneaky, unsportsmanlike, friendship ending move in the history of TGP fantasy baseball, Phrozen shocked the world by snagging last years league MVP and the heart and soul of team Catz, FHOFRI in the 19th round.

Ibanez was reached at his home in Seattle and had this to say:

It's a rough day for me. I'm not gonna lie. I'm pissed. I'm angry, I didn't ask for this but when life gives you lemons, you make a mojito, right? I have faith in Catz' trade abilities and am certain I'll be home before you know it. Probably on the same flight with Clayton Kershaw. Until then I'll do my job, and try and lead these guys by example.

Chime in below with your rosters guys, and lets have some fun this year.

and just for fun, first and last rounds pick by pick, per team:

ROUND 1:

1	My Little Conies	Cabrera, Miguel 3B DET
2	The Wesley Crushers	*Braun, Ryan LF MIL	1 min 31 sec
3	IndieHipster Ironies	Trout, Mike CF LAA	1 min 4 sec
4	Phortress of Phortitude	Kershaw, Clayton SP LAD	10 sec
5	Cormican	Verlander, Justin SP DET	18 sec
6	Picture me Rollins	Votto, Joey 1B CIN	11 sec
7	Poetic Justice Leaguers	Strasburg, Stephen SP WAS	35 sec
8	phillies0100	Cano, Robinson 2B NYY	18 sec
9	Mattwinks	Posey, Buster C SF	1 min 7 sec
10	TW Aardvarks	Lee, Cliff SP PHI	1 min 8 sec
11	Revere Cowgirl	Price, David SP TB	7 sec
12	Sor'lyehent Greenies	*Kemp, Matt CF LAD	1 min 32 sec
13	Trev223	*Tulowitzki, Troy SS COL	1 min 30 sec
14	Exploding Knees	Stanton, Giancarlo RF MIA	14 sec
15	88UCantWalkWith4Balls88	Hamels, Cole SP PHI	26 sec
16	The Trader JoeTraveling All Stars and Motor Kings	Pujols, Albert 1B LAA	43 sec

ROUND 25:

	My Little Conies	Nakajima, Hiroyuki SS OAK	3 sec (8 min 58 sec)
2	The Wesley Crushers	Pena, Carlos 1B HOU	36 sec (11 min 20 sec)
3	IndieHipster Ironies	Barney, Darwin 2B CHC	6 sec (25 min 0 sec)
4	Phortress of Phortitude	Cozart, Zack SS CIN	11 sec (8 min 11 sec)
5	Cormican	O'Flaherty, Eric RP ATL	38 sec (11 min 38 sec)
6	Picture me Rollins	Zunino, Mike C SEA	4 sec (18 min 15 sec)
7	Poetic Justice Leaguers	Maholm, Paul SP ATL	10 sec (10 min 33 sec)
8	phillies0100	Crow, Aaron RP KC	10 sec (6 min 2 sec)
9	Mattwinks	*Arencibia, J.P. C TOR	0 sec (9 min 4 sec)
10	TW Aardvarks	Donaldson, Josh 3B OAK	4 sec (24 min 31 sec)
11	Revere Cowgirl	Davis, Rajai CF TOR	1 sec (8 min 8 sec)
12	Sor'lyehent Greenies	Dotel, Octavio RP DET	17 sec (14 min 44 sec)
13	Trev223	Soria, Joakim RP TEX	1 min 8 sec (17 min 34 sec)
14	Exploding Knees	Collins, Tim RP KC	11 sec (15 min 11 sec)
15	88UCantWalkWith4Balls88	*Coke, Phil RP DET	0 sec (7 min 59 sec)
16	The Trader JoeTraveling All Stars and Motor Kings	Valverde, Jose RP DET	3 min 20 sec (13 min 47 sec)

Phillies First Team Meeting 2013: Exclusive Transcript!

Joecatz — Sat, 16 Feb 2013 20:58:00 -0000

Interior: Phillies Clubhouse at Brighthouse Field. 7 AM.

The first day of full squad workouts is about to begin. 60 players are spread about dressing, and readying themselves for the big day. The atmosphere is jovial, but apprehensive. Everyone is in workout clothes save for Delmon Young. Who sits at his locker, sipping a diet coke and eating a bag of fat free lil' bites He's speaking with Darin Ruf and Dom Brown

Delmon: Naw, man, that stuff got blown WAY out of the stratomosphere.

Dom: Stratosphere.

Delmon: What?

Dom: It's stratosphere. You said stratomosphere.

Delmon: Whatever. Point is the best piece of advice I give to a young guy like you two is keep you damn mouth shut. Don't say nothing to nobody bout nothing.. (sips his soda and bites a muffin) Cause once... (deep swallow) you cross over to that dark side you in deep s&*t, brother. Deep deep epically religioumous s*&t.

Dom: Religious.

Delmon: What I said?

Dom: What the hell is happening to me.

Delmon: You getting an edumacation my little brother. That's why the brass decided you me and little D gonna be roomies all damn SPRING! Now member lil D, light starch and I like my eggs runny but not so wet that they taste like snot boogies.

Darin: Gosh Mr. Young. I have to say that I can't begin to express how much I am going to appreciate following your lead and example this season, you know, provided that I get the opportunity to fulfill my dream of being a big league ballplayer. You know, funny story, when I was six I was the shortest kid in my class. My dad always told me, Darin, it doesn't matter how tall you are, or how big you are its the size of your heart that matters. Did your dad ever tell you that, Mr. Young?

Dom: Imma kill myself. I swear Imma kill myself.

Darin: Mr. Brown, I hope to learn from you too, you know. And I can't tell you guys how excited I am to be bunking together this spring. Did you guys ever see the movie The Three Amigos? It stars a young Chevy Chase and Martin Short and the other guy with the silver hair who...

a gust of wind blows by them. Ben Revere is suddenly standing in front of them.

Ben; Yo Yo Yo Yo Yo What Up fellow Outfield brothers! Big Ben is in the HIZZZOUSE!!! Holla for a dolla!! Holla for a dolla! D Brown? How dat hambone son? D Young? best watch them muffins my man! ( looks at Ruf) Its Donnie Right?

Darin: Darin, Mr. Revere, and can I say it is an honor and a privilege to...

Ben: Darin. Gotcha. Sorry bro I'll get it eventually. Anyway gotta fly gotta fly gotta fly! See ya boys out there!

The wind gusts again and Ruf's hat blows off his head.

Delmon: Sheeeeiit! And people worried bout us getting to balls.(Pours the crumbs from the bottom of the bag into his mouth) Now like I was saying last night. The difference between Catsup and Ketchup is actuamally pretty damn big a deal. So when we done here, you gonna go to the Publix and get me some Hunts for my chicken nugs, got it?

Dom: Kill me now, God. Trade me. Kill me. But god, why have you forsaken me?

Darin: Look guys, its the Skip!

Charlie hobbles in, followed by Dubee, and Ryne Sandberg, who pours over stat sheets on a clip board, and stays close to the entrance, while Charlie and Dubee step into the center of the room.

Darin: (waves his hands to get Sandberg's attention) Hey SKIP! Over here! Hi Skip It's me Darin Ruf!! Hi!!

Dom: He ain't the Skip, dumbass!

Darin: You sure?

Sandberg looks at Ruf with an evil eye and points to Charlie.

Ruf: Oh yeah. Right! Ruf winks at Sandberg, motions to Charlie. SKIP! Hey Skip! Hi! It's me Darin Ruf!!

Charlie looks at Ruf , waves and smiles, and shakes his head. Whispers to Dubee.

Charlie: He's an imbecil, but he can flat hit Dubes. Go ahead.

Dubee: Listen up jerk wads. Skip has something to say!

Everyone looks at Sandberg. Sandberg lifts his head from his clipboard, shakes his head slowly and points at Charlie again. They all turn their attention towards him. Sandberg goes back to his statistics.

Charlie: Listen up ya'll. I got me sumethin to say.

the room quiets down.

Charlie: We got like, some new faces, young guys, old guys, another young guy...

(chuckles from the crowd).

Charlie: But mostly people say we got old guys, like, hurt guys, and like, apparently, we might not even supposed to be going on out and doing this today, cause like, hell... Why bother playing when the season is done over for it starts right? So we gonna cancel spring training. What you guys think? Hey Doc? lemme ask you sumthin' You think we should just pack it in?

Halladay is holding a baseball in his LEFT HAND. He throws it at a bell hanging above the entry to the door. He hits it and it rings.

Roy: I've been working the other arm just in case Skip. You f*&^$%S wanna see what I can do with my right hand?

(whooping claps.)

Charlie: Piece, what you gotta say?

Howard lifts his leg in the air, and rotates his ankle, pain free. He stands stomps his foot three times.

Howard: I say Bring it Skip. BU-RING IT!

Charlie: Young James?

Rollins: Ain't no party like a Broad street party!

Charlie: Chase?

Silence.

Charlie: Where's Utley?

More Silence...

Charlie: Um like, anyone know where Chase is? Is he like, here? Or is he like, not here yet? Cause like...

Sandberg: without lifting his head from his clipboard He's in with the trainer.

A gasp of air deflates the room. there's complete and utter silence.

Charlie: Well, Uh, well, like, I'm sure its nuthin, like lets all just grab our gloves and like balls and like, batter up.

But everyone has turned their attention to the trainers room, where they can see Chase Utley, sitting on a table, wincing as Scott Sheridan flexes his knee. No one moves. No one speaks. They just watch. Moments seem like hours, and finally Utley emerges.

Chase: My zipper down?

Silence.

Chase: Who got traded?

Silence

Chase: Spit it out hair gel.

Hamels: Uh, so how's the knee Chase?

Chase: Which one?

Rollins: Either baby, either.

Chase: Hows the knee?

Charlie: Well, like the guys was like, getting revved up a little, and like you wasn't here, and we was watching you with Scott and like, you know, well....

Chase: Jesus.

Chase moves towards the craft services table, where Delmon Young is filling a plate with low fat pasta salad and baked lays potato chips.

Chase: Step aside Tubby.

Delmon: Who you calling Tubby?

Chase: You, you fat F*&K. I thought that was pretty blatant. Just cause it says diet doesn't mean you should eat that s*&t fat boy.

Delmon: Now lets get someportant stuff straight here big man. I'm Delmon You....

Chase drops down to the ground and leg sweeps Delmon ninja style. Young, dazed, slowly slides away from the craft services table.

Chase: That was for the jews. Move.

Delmon Young is silent as he stares in awe at Utley.

Chase: Hows my knee? Huh? You jags wanna know how my knee is?

Utley takes a bat and hits all the food off the table on to the floor. In one sweeping motion he bends and jumps vertically and sideways and lands flat on his feet on the top of the table.

Chase: That's How my F*%&$#G KNEES ARE! Toss that apple pretty boy!

He stands on one leg, holds the bat. Hamels throws an apple towards him and he crushes it into pieces.

Chase: Oh s$%t, Utleys corner. That was a double off the wall! Hey smiley? Orange me!

He shifts to the other leg. Still one legged, Cliff Lee Fires an Orange at him. Smash!

Chase: BOOM! Deep into Luzinski territory beyatch!

The crowd is going wild!

Chase: What else you got?

John Lannan: GERONIMOOOOOOOOO!!!!!

Everyone: NOOOOOOO!!!!

Chase turns his head slightly, as the cantaloupe veers upwards. it tails, and hits him smack dab in the head. Utley falls into a heap on the floor.

Silence again.

Jimmy: You GOT to be kidding me Lannan!

They crowd around Utley.

Charlie: Dag nabit like, give him room.

Dubee: Lannan you A hole.

Lannan: I'm sorry. I'm sorry, its just...

The crowd gives him room. Utley hobbles up.Utley Stares at Lannan.

Lannan: I'm sorry Chase, It just happened. I got caught up in the moment and...

Chase: Help me up.

Lannan reaches forward, and Utley punches him square in the nuts. Lannan barrels over. Utley Hops up like a rabbit, and is back on top of the table with a smile on his face.

Utley: That was for 2007!

The crowd laughs hysterically.

Utley: Listen up you dweebos. Chase Utley is good to go! Got it? Good. So stop lolly gagging and start hustling your asses out there like pronto. Got it? I'm back muthaf*&%as. With a vengeance. We got a world f'in championship to get ready for right? Cause What we say round here James?

Rollins: Ain't no party like a Broad street party!

Utley: Damn straight!

Utley smiles as he watches the team leave. He sits on the table and calls out to one player.

Utley: Dom! Hold up.

The room clears, and Utley and Brown are alone.

Utley: Hows the hamate.

Brown: All good.

Utley: Look me in the eye and tell me the truth.

Brown: All Good Chase.

Utley: Then do me a favor.

Brown: What?

Utley: Get your head out of your ass.

Brown: Say what?

Utley: Did I stutter? GET YOUR HEAD OUT OF YOUR ASS! Stop moping around like some little baby. it's plain on your face Dom. You got to get that gone like yesterday. You hear me? I mean you really gonna let that fat f*&k and some rookie in your head? You have to beat out a jew hating fatso who can't step on the field and a rookie who's never played at AAA. If you can't do that you ain't who I KNOW you are. You hear me? You go out there and you make them KNOW. You understand me? Make them KNOW.

Brown: Easy for you to say, you ain't gotta room with them.

Utley: Boo Hoo. Try shacking up with Burrell and Uggie Urbina in a studio apartment two blocks from a high school and then come talk to me about misery. MAKE THEM KNOW!

Brown: Know what?

Utley: That your f*&^%#g Spiderman! That you can climb f&^%$*g walls and they can't hold your jock.

Brown: Spiderman?

Utley: Damn straight! Spiderman. Every second, every minute for the next 6 weeks. From this moment forward you're Spiderman.

Brown: Spiderman!

Utley: Great power, great responsibility. Stop feeling sorry for yourself and just mash. MASH. You get that? Cause I swear to Harry in heaven that if that fat piece of crap is behind me in RF because you boned it, I will FIND you. I will find you in Toronto, or Lehigh, or Kalamafreakingzoo, I will track you down at whatever footlocker you end up working at cause you felt sorry for yourself and I will break your knees. You have no freaking idea what you have kid. None. Stop wasting it, and do something about it.

Brown: Yes Sir.

UTLEY: You are the future of this franchise Dom. I know it. You know it. Make THEM know it.

Brown: Yes Sir.

Utley: I ain't leaving this team to a bunch of idiots. You're the man Dom. Prove it. Do it. Bust your ass. Make them KNOW.

Brown: You going somewhere?

Utley: F*&k no. Just getting MY HOUSE in order. Good?

Brown: Hell yeah.

Brown smiles.

Utley: Go.

Brown leaves. the room is empty. Utley winces and gently and gingerly gets down. From behind the door to the trainers room, Amaro slowly enters.

Utley: That what you wanted?

Ruben: Worked for me.

Utley: Think it'll work for him?

Ruben: I hope so. Hows the knee?

Utley: Don't matter. does it?

Ruben: Chase...

Utley: Get the f&%k out of here will you....

Ruben leaves, turns

Ruben: One Question. Why not Superman?

Utley: I'm F&%$*#G Superman, Paco.

Ruben: Up up and away...

Utley: Go jerk off someone else, wouldya?

Ruben: Thanks Chase.

Utley: Screw off, Paco.

Ruben: You too.

Ruben leaves.

Utley limps a little. Stretches out his leg, and hums...

Utley: Does da-da-da a spider can....

Utley looks at the sky.

Utley: Harry, help me out here just a little, huh?

And in the distance, over the Gulf of Mexico, a faint voice says..

BLACK

CBS League General Discussion Thread

Joecatz — Sun, 03 Feb 2013 16:11:19 -0000

Any and all questions regarding scoring, roster rules, regulations, changes, benefits,drafts etc... for the CBS league. Open discussion below. Including, but not limited to HOW DO I BLOCK TRADE EMAILS FROM JOECATZ!!!

Keeper League Questions and General Discussion thread

Joecatz — Sun, 03 Feb 2013 16:09:16 -0000

This league is bound to have some questions regarding format, etc.. as well as any general ideological debates. Feel free to chime in with any keeper league related questions etc.. in the comments below.

Grading the Phillies Offseason on a Curve: The 2014 Effect

Joecatz — Tue, 29 Jan 2013 20:21:03 -0000

A few months ago, the TGP staff put together our predictions for the 2013 off-season. Man were we wrong! (Seriously Joe, Alex Gordon and David Price??) Unless Wet Luzinski (who didn't get his predictions in in time) had Delmon Young, Michael Young, Ben Revere, or John Lannan written down, I don't believe a single member of the staff made one correct pick, unless you consider those of us who saw Worley being traded as a correct prediction.

And really, can you blame us? When you think about it, with the money that this team has shelled out over the past few years, the end of the sellout streak, the sub par 81-81 season, the looming cable deal, etc., even the most critical pundits expected the Phillies to be in on SOMEONE. Seriously. Who could have predicted that, in an off-season ripe with free agent outfield talent, Ruben would trade for Ben Revere and sign Delmon Young? That, after trading Vance Worley, with a plethora of ~~Rubenporn~~ starting pitching available (headlined by Zack Greinke), the team would opt for a one year deal with John "Please don't punch me when I walk into the clubhouse Mr. Utley" Lannan. For many, the notion that the Phillies would end up with the rogues' gallery of talent that will assemble (well, hopefully assemble -- we are assuming everyone makes weight and there are enough electric scooters to rent at the Tampa airport kiosk to make it through baggage to the bus...) at Brighthouse Field in exactly two weeks, is not only head scratching, it's downright embarrassing and somewhat offensive to many fans.

People are calling for Ruben's job. Hell, I myself lobbied for him to let me take a crack at helping him. (Still waiting by the way!). The dynasty is finished! Why bother watching this train wreck unfold in front of your eyes? (The answer By the way, is who wouldn't stop to watch a train wreck? If anything, the train wreck is something I'm looking forward to parodying all season long.)

There were definitely options on the market that could have helped the team in 2013 more than what is to be expected from the Young and Young defense factory. (I think it should be mandatory to play THIS SONG immediately after one of the Youngs makes an error in the field, and replace the lyrics with "Everyone Advance Now! E-6, E-9, E-6, E-9...")

There were certainly similar free agent options that were better choices "on paper" and maybe even some, internally, at a lower cost. (By the way, last time I checked those internal options didn't GO ANYWHERE. They're still here, should plan A falter, assuming you believe Delmon Young really is plan A...). That said, going into the off-season, there were holes to plug for 2013 at third base, two outfield spots and depending on how you feel about Charlie Manuel's ability to manage a young bullpen, in the 8th inning, with roughly 30 million dollars in annual value to add before hitting the luxury cap.

Basically Josh Hamilton OR Zack Greinke and a few complimentary pieces, OR B.J. Upton (non-factor, since he wasn't signing here), Michael Young and a few pieces, plus the Revere trade.

And unless you really believe the plan was to go with a double platoon (and if it was, why non tender Nate Schierholtz?) the Revere trade, or something similar happens regardless.

Ruben managed to fill all those holes, and add some complimentary pieces with (depending on how you add it up) about $8-10 million to spare.

He did it by buying a bunch of lottery tickets, but he did it. So when I look at the offseason, To grade it properly, I had to keep that in mind. I also had to look at the off-season as a part of the bigger picture, and to accurately grade it, I want to point out a few things the Phillies did not do.

They did not:

Give up the 16th pick in the draft, along with the roughly $2,125,000 in slot money allotted to the pick.
Sign any deals for older free agents, or pay big dollars for one name. Not a handcuff deal in the bunch.
Give a contract longer than one year guaranteed to anyone other than Mike Adams, in a year where Jeremy Affeldt got more guaranteed years and dollars, and three years seemed to be the norm for a reliever of Adams' pedigree.
Trade away the farm, deal a catching prospect, Domonic Brown, Darin Ruf, Cody Asche, Jesse Biddle, Roman Quinn, Adam Morgan, Ethan Martin, Phillippe Aumont, Justin De Fratus, or any of the 6 left handed relief pitchers currently on the 40-man roster with major league experience.
Max out their payroll before opening day, which, they've done or come close to doing every year in recent memory, which has, in turn, forced them to overpay in prospects at the deadline to stay under the luxury tax limit when they made a trade.
Give up a prospect below the AA level. This may be a bigger deal than anyone realizes. If you take the time to examine Ruben's trades, if you look at who he's dealt, and at what level they played when they were dealt, in any transaction in Rubens tenure, I challenge you to find a single player in the organization that we traded that was playing at or above AA at the time that you regret not having in the organization today over the player we got in return. Say what you want about this guy, but someone in this organization is either extremely lucky, or extremely good at evaluating who to include, and who NOT to include in trades, Especially when it comes to pitchers. So call me skeptical on whether Trevor May ever pans out, and you know my feelings on Vance Worley and his career as a long reliever.
Lose Cole Hamels to free agency and overpay for Zack Greinke or a lesser caliber pitcher to fill his slot. Say what you want but if Hamels had hit the market, and they signed him in December to the same kind of deal they signed this summer, you'd feel a LOT better about the off-season, no? And when you compare the deal Greinke got to the one Hamels agreed to, It looks pretty darn good.

Call me an optimist, but for years, we've been preaching cost control around these parts. We've universally panned the long term deals for Jonathan Papelbon, and the Ryan Howard extension, and screamed from the rooftops to stop doing those things, mainly for fear of getting where we are now.

And that's kind of what they did.

And now we're screaming because they didn't spend.

Am I missing something here?

If you look at the money coming off the books after this season, by AAV as it applies to the Phillies:

Roy Halladay $20 mm
Chase Utley $12.2 mm
Carlos Ruiz $3.34 mm
Michael Young $6 mm
Kyle Kendrick $3.75 mm
John Lannan $2.5 mm
Delmon Young $3.5 mm* (assuming he cuts down on the burgers and stays on the team and plays)
Laynce Nix $1.25 mm

By my count that's $52,540,000 coming off the books. For the sake of arbitration raises, lets call it an even fifty. The Phillies payroll as it stands, is projected to be about $165,000,000 for 2013. The luxury tax threshold is $189,000,000 in 2014. That means that the team will have about $74,000,000 in payroll flexibility going into the 2014 off-season.

$74,000,000 for a third baseman, an outfielder, a second baseman, a catcher, three starting pitchers and a bench bat.

In a perfect world, Cody Asche is ready at third, and a combination of Morgan, Biddle, Martin, Cloyd and Pettibone fill two rotation spots for league minimum. One of Joseph or Valle is ready to catch, or Chooch signs a below market deal. Halladay is back to form and signs a 2-year $30mm deal, and Utley defies the odds, wins the National League MVP, plays 160 games, puts up 8 fWAR and gets a 4-year $80mm deal to finish his career here. We're left wondering why we didn't just give Josh Hamilton the money, or BJ Upton the money, or whoever, when we miss the playoffs by one game.

The world, however, isn't perfect. Asche can just as easily bust at Lehigh Valley as he can succeed. Morgan can blow an elbow. Martin can revert to erratic form. Biddle could implode at AA. Halladay can be last year's version less a few miles an hour, and last time I checked, Chase Utley still hadn't played a spring training game since 2010.

If you look at the rosters in the National League on paper, and replace Delmon Young with Josh Hamilton or BJ Upton, and Michael Young with Kevin Frandsen, do you really see a scenario where the Phillies are THAT MUCH BETTER in 2013 if Halladay, Utley, Rollins and Howard arent all 100% on point?

I don't. If those guys are up to snuff, I see a team that's in it at the all star break, with money to spend.

Here's a look at the 2014 free agent class. Add in the plethora of trade options out there and the additional year of development of our prospects, and it's not a bleak picture. The point here, for me at least, is that the one thing Ruben Amaro did not do this off-season was mortgage the future, either by trading a ton of prospects or committing long dollars with a cloud of uncertainty around an aging core. As fans, no matter how level headed we are, we want them to sign the Hamiltons and the Greinkes and the Uptons, but that's because we as human beings are a "now" species.

Quite simply, this was not the year to spend, from a long term perspective, and hoestly, it probably wasn't the way to go from a short term perspective either. Not with 30mm to spend. Not unless you overpay in prospects in a trade and go two years longer than you should for Josh Hamilton. 2014 is the year to spend, when you have $74,000,000 at your disposal, a better idea of what your core can do, and a much better gauge on your prospects.

Simply put, this team, going into the offseason any oves were secondary to the Core succeeding. That hasn't changed. The Phillies chance to compete in 2013 still lives and dies by the Big Three. The winds of success ride on (literally) their shoulders. In 2013, the offense is still controlled by Utley, Howard, and Rollins. The success is theirs to determine.

As for the rest? There a bajillion questions. Should Brown and Ruf be given a shot over Delmon? Absolutely. Will it happen? Who knows. But Delmon Young over one of those guys doesn't define this season. Its a negligible part. Frandsen over Young is the same thing. Galvis vs. Betancourt, Durbin over Stutes or Cloyd, in the grand scheme of things are very, very minor, compared to Utley playing 150 games, Howard hitting LHP, Doc making 30 starts, or Hamels and Lee staying healthy.

The real question we should be asking is would you prefer Kevin Youkilis and no cap space, or Youkilis on a 2-year deal to Michael Young?

Would you rather have to deal with one year (or lets be real here, 1/2 a season cause you know he's gonna do something to get released by July) of Delmon Young, or Josh Hamilton AND Ryan Howard taking up $50mm of salary in 2015 and 2016 combined to MAYBE be a little closer to the wild card this year, if it handcuffs you next year, and Forces you to make Freddy Galvis your second baseman, if Utley's knees go out, when Robbie Cano is on the market, and so is Jacoby Elsbury.

For me, that's the real question. I'm 50/50 as a fan,cause I really wanna see this team win. I'm 100% for the future. In a vacuum, the off-season sucks. In reality, provided they stay this course and actually SPEND the money? it may be a blessing in disguise.

When I look at the moves this off-season in a vacuum, for 2013? The grade is a C at best. And to be honest, if they had the foresight to have tendered Nate Schierholtz a contract, and not signed Delmon Young, I might have given them a B-. For THIS YEAR. For improving the team and competing for a world championship in 2013.

For the future? I may get ribbed here but I give em a solid B+. they gave up a replaceable starter in Worley and a questionable AA prospect in Trevor May for a young Juan Pierre in Ben Revere who at 24 has put up the same fWAR as Angel Pagan or Dexter Fowler the past two years in 30 fewer games. He has already become a favorite among fans. He's going to be fun to watch, and has the potential to be a cost controlled center fielder for many years. They also gave Charlie a pretty darn good set up guy, which he needs. He does, guys. I know what the deal is with cost controlled relief pitchers and I'm telling you Mike Adams saves Cliff Lee's Elbow and Cole Hamels' shoulder and what's left of Doc's shoulder too.

The rest of the moves are non factors past this season, and the fact that they kept the farm mostly intact, and kept the draft pick is huge, in my opinion. But most important to me is that by not handcuffing themselves to a big ticket item they left flexibility to spend, either at the deadline, or in the offseason. And mark my words, when they're in it at the deadline (and barring catastrophy, they'll be in it) they'll spend.

The one that won it all in 2008? It was built. It wasn't bought.

That said, longterm, its just a B+

Cause at the end of the day, I can't give anyone an A for signing Michael Young AND Delmon Young in the same off season. Even I'm not that optimistic.

If anything, 2013 is going to be interesting. But so will the next decade. One way or the other.

Catz Out.

Catz Corner: Did the Braves Actually Get WORSE?

Joecatz — Fri, 25 Jan 2013 16:57:55 -0000

There's no doubt that going back 10 years the pinnacle of being a Phillies fan happened on October 27th 2008. regardless of whether you are a die hard optimistic Phillies fan or a born and bred Negadelphian one thing binds all of us together. the fact that every season since then, at some point, your heart has been broken by this team. The hope of repeating that euphoria gave way at some point to the deafening reality of loss, end, and finality.

For me, I can pinpoint these moments succinctly. In 2009, it was the Johnny Damon single in the top of the 9th of game 5 followed by consecutive stolen bases. In 2010 it was the Juan Uribe home run off of Ryan Madson in game 6. 2011? it happened on the 2-1 triple by Rafael Furcal in the first AB of game 5. Last year it happened a few times (LOL) but the final kicker was the bottom of the 7th inning in the last game of that Houston Series, when Philippe Aumont imploded.

Each time the feeling was like a kick in the gut. a kick so strong that it punched every optimistic breath out of my lungs, and left me feeling the way I did when Katie Porter dumped me in the 11th grade. You know the feeling. This can't be happening. I had plans! We were gonna do things! A gut wrenching can't eat because I want to gag kind of emptiness.

I'll admit it. When the Braves traded for Justin Upton yesterday, I got that feeling. compounded on top of the Delmon Young news, I gave in. The season was over before it began. Hope was lost. Why bother?

Then, this morning, while twittering away, I saw a tweet from Dennis Deitch.

Dennis Deitch ‏@DennisDeitch

Really, is Upton/Upton/Johnson an upgrade on Prado/Bourn/C. Jones?

My immediate thought was uh...Duh. Yes. followed by:

Hmm.... HMMM.... NAH.... HMM????

So thanks to Dennis I did what any Saber inclined Phillies fan would do.

I looked to fangraphs. Just a simple exercise. In 2012, fWAR vs. fWAR. who's right?

Well, Chipper Jones, Martin Prado, and Michael Bourn combined for a total of 15.3 wins above replacement in 2012.

BJ, Justin, and Chris Johnson totaled 7.5

That's almost a loss of NINE WINS.

Now granted, Justin had an off year, One could say Prado had a career year, etc.. so how bout over a three year period?

Well, the problem there is Chris Johnson only has 2 years in the bigs, never played more than 136 games, and put up -0.8 war in 2011, vs 1.7 war in 2012. So lets give him the benefit of the doubt, and assume he's suddenly a 2.5 war player over three years. (essentially, the production they got from an aging D-bag.)

Over three years, TOTAL fWAR:

Johnson 7.5 BJ Upton (4.1,4.1, 3.3) 11.8 Justin Upton (3.0, 6.4, 2.5) 11.9 So a total of 31.2

For the other guys?

Prado (4.3, 1.6, 5.9) 11.8 Bourn (4.7, 4.1, 6.7) 15.5 Jones (2.8, 2.0, 3.0) 7.8. So a total of 35.1

Check my math guys, but I don't see a devastating improvement. I see a team that offensively at least, got worse. It should also be noted that Chipper played 100 games a year, and I'm giving a big benefit of the doubt for Chris Johnson.

When you look deeper at the Braves roster, and realize that Jayson Heward had a 6.9 fWAR season, It's hard to make a case that he's gonna get THAT MUCH better. Yeah, yeah, Freddie Freeman is 23 and poised for a breakout. but he was a 2 war 1B last season.

Their bullpen is better, sure (which is frightening) but Can Kris Medlen repeat? Can Andrelton Simmons be the leadoff guy Michael Bourn was? Which Brian McCann shows up? How does losing David Ross and his 1.5 WAR affect that pitching staff?

The point here, is that if EVERYONE ELSE ON THEIR ROSTER performs at or above the same levels as 2012, the loss of Prado and Jones, and especially Michael Bourn is pretty huge.

The Braves won 94 games in 2012. But they won 94 games because everything went right. Heyward, Bourn and Prado had career years. Chipper came back from injury and put up 3 WAR. Kris Medlen came back and dominated. by my count, they lost 8 wins, and are an 86 win team.

And by my count, Upton, Upton and Johnson have to have career years, McCann has to bounce back, Simmons has to produce big time, Uggla can't regress any more, and they gave up SP depth by dealing Hanson and Delgado.Tim Hudson is 38. Who's to say he wont be a question mark as well.

Every damn thing in the world went wrong with the Phillies in 2012. Halladay was hurt, Howard and Utley missed half the season, We traded Vic and Pence, Cliff Lee didn't win a game until the 4th of July, and they still won 81 games.

Chase Utley put up 3.2 war last year in 83 games. Hunter Pence went from being a 4.8 WAR player to a 1.8 war guy. Howard was -1.0. Say what you want but Ryan Howard isn't a negative WAR player over 150 games.

Point is: WE SUCKED LAST YEAR AND STILL WON 81 GAMES!!!

For the record, fangraphs predicts the following war for Johnson, Upton and Upton for 2013. 1.4, 5.2, 4.0. Thats 9.8

If you assume Chipper would be a 3 WAR player, Bourn and Prado project at 4.6 and 4.5 thats 12.1.

So even if you just wanna look at projections, the Braves lost 2 .3 wins in this deal for 2013.

It its my humble opinion that the Braves, by dealing Martin Prado in this deal, and losing Michael Bourn, got better for the future in the OF, but worse in 2013. They basically traded three positions of strength for two.I also believe in my heart of hearts that theres no way on god greens earth that things can be worse than they were for the Phillies in 2012.

Not when they have a 158mm payroll and money and prospects to burn. Not with the Cable deal on the line. They're looking to be in this at the deadline and regroup, they're hoping that no one gets hurt, that Hallday and Utley and howard and Rollins (who are the KEYS to this team) come to camp healthy and ready to go.

And come July, they'll know.

One more comment that's pure opinion here. I love my brother. Love him with all my heart. But I don't know how excited I'd be if he worked with me every day. There are days when we'd get lot done, days when we'd goof off, and days when we'd want to kill each other over stupid shit. We empower each other both positively and negatively. Much has been said about how great it'll be for Justin and BJ to play together, but there's a lot of negative that can come out of that as well. Its a great story. But I can just as easily picture a fistfight in the dugout and I can a fistbump at the plate.

So don't go jumping off the Walt Whitman just yet.

That kick in the stomach I had yesterday? I don't feel it anymore.

Catz Out.

Are You There RAJ? It's Me, Joecatz: An Open Letter to Ruben Amaro Jr.

Joecatz — Wed, 23 Jan 2013 15:17:52 -0000

Editors note: This letter has been mailed to Ruben Amaro Jr, word for word at his office at CBP. I have also sent copies to David Montgomery, Ryne Sandberg, Larry Anderson, Gary Matthews Jr. Charlie Manuel, Rich Dubee and Chase Utley (solely because I think Utley really runs this team). Hopefully someone reads it and gets the message.

For the love of god people, help get the word out to let me help this team. I know I can do it. Tell your friends. start a petition. Whatever. But lets do this before someone gets hurt.

Dear Mr. Amaro,

My name is Joecatz. I'm a huge fan and contributor at a saber metrically inclined website dedicated to all things Phillies, www.thegoodphight.com. You might know me from my predictive analysis of Raul Ibanez streakiness or my ability to parody your Roster meetings. I'm kind of famous in the twitterverse as well for my predictive habits, and incessant trade ideas, which have garnered me the nickname Catstradamus.

I won the TGP fantasy league last year, and also put together a pretty good roster for this season at the SBnation simulated GM game (I traded Worley and signed Lannan too !) I make a real good living here in Florida, but I'm writing you today because I want a job. I'm not asking for pay, or an office, or even a ring if we win it all. I just want to be your Jiminy Cricket.

I think you need someone like me, to be your voice of reason, cause your lost right now Ruben. Lost like Pinocchio Rube. (lies aside)/ Lost like a puppy in the woods, or a nun in a whorehouse, and you can't find the door. I want to help you.

We're a lot alike Ruben. I think you've made some great moves this off season. Unlike the typical Philies fan, I lobbied to trade Vance Worley a year ago. I think the deal for Revere was sheer brilliance. I didn't mind the Michael Young deal either, and to be honest, even with all the young arms in the system I see the value in the Mike Adams deal, for the same reasons you do, namely, your manager doesn't know how to manage a bullpen of young arms.And I firmly believe that as long as the bionic magnets in Chase utleys body that attract John Lannan fastballs dont make his pithces boomerang towards second base, that one is gonna be a great move.

But you're lost Ruben. Lost. Early on, you did a great job of moving talent that doesn't amount to anything above the AA level in deals for Halladay, Oswalt and Lee, but then you made a questionable one (see Pence, Hunter) based on greed, and it bit you.

I know it hurt Ruben. I know you regret it, but you're half assing it now man. You've gone 180 degrees in the other direction. You value that draft pick, I get it, but Delmon Young?

Forget the off field stuff. There are a hundred guys like Delmon who think the same thing he said drunk one one night playing the game. These are prima donna athletes, not missionaries and saints. I get the risk reward and all that but how hard is it to look at a guys splits and see that over the past two seasons the guy has hit 250/279/380 against RHP? this one baffles me, especially when you have a better defensive solution (Mayberry) on the team and two kids (Ruf and Brown) who deserve the chance to prove themselves.

What baffles me the most about this move, Ruben is that you've annointed him the RF. This is a guy who hasn't played the position since 2007, and I can't help but believe that this means you plan on playing Ruf in LF and Dom Brown is the odd man out. Otherwise, why announce Young as the RF when hes hurt and might miss spring training? I don't get Ruben. and neither does anyone else.

How hard is it to look at your roster and see that you need a LH bat from a platoon situation, not a RH one? I mean, I'm in the homebuilding business, I live in Florida, and I can see it. But I know man. I know. Charlie wants thump from the RH side. I get it. he's down on Brown. I get that too.

But Charlie ain't the boss. You are.Charlie wouldn't know a hamate from a ham bone. He could are less about cost effectiveness, and salary cap. he wants guys that'll make his job easy. You have to worry about all the other stuff and its tough. I know that. But I can help.

Charlie can't see the problems on the horizon, the need to control payroll because of the question marks around Utley, Hallday and Chooch. I see that Ruben. I see why you made a few moves like you did this off season.

I know your pissed you don't have the chips for Upton. You realize that if you hadn't gone after Pence you might be in that game today. I know you see Elsbury and Cano and Grandy out there next year, and have the relief arms and catching prospects and guys like Morgan and Biddle and Martin, and hope someone ANYONE steps up and turns into a blue chipper who can net you the next Upton. I get that dude, I really do.

But you're half assing it to the point where you might not have a job real soon if things go astray this year. And no offense, but in a year when you pass on Bourn, BJ, Hamilton, Pagan, Swisher, Victorino and Pagan to end up with Ben Revere and Delmon Young? That's borderline treason.

You're scared Ruben. Scared of commiting to the wrong guy and getting another Howard like deal on your hands. Scared that if you commit the money now, and something happens to Utley you won't have it in the offseason. Scared that if Halladay is done, you'll need another arm at the deadline.

And I know you covet David Price. I do too. But that's a year away brother.

You've obviously got the wrong voices whispering in your ear RAJ. Let me be your new voice. Call me anytime and bounce stuff. I'll be discreet. Everything will be between us. I promise on my kids.

I never would have let you non tender Schierholtz Rube. Never. And you wouldn't be in this mess. I would have talked you out of the two year deal for Nix, the Pence trade never would have happened and things would be different.

Seriously. I can help. Please let me.

I'm enclosing my resume, address and phone number as well. I look forward to you soon.

My best wishes for a succesful 2013.

Sincerely,

Joecatz.

PS: If you don't call, at least look at Delmon's splits and keep him off the field against RHP. Think about platooning him at 1B with Howard if you have to. And for Gods sake, before you trade Brown to Chicago for Soriano, remember the kid had hamate surgery and might just surprise you this spring.That's free advice.

Maybe Michael Bourn IS Worth the Draft Pick for the Phillies....

Joecatz — Thu, 17 Jan 2013 17:44:03 -0000

Going into the off season one thing was clear. The Phillies were going to sign a center fielder. The names most often bounced around were B.J. Upton, Angel Pagan, Shane Victorino, and Michael Bourn. Add in Josh Hamilton and Melky Cabrera, and as recently as two months ago, the odds in Vegas of the Phillies signing one of these guys would have been even money.

For Michael Bourn, most folks felt the likely spots were Washington, Philly or maybe back to Atlanta. (San Francisco was mentioned as well)

After the Nationals traded for Denard Span, B.J. Upton signed with Atlanta and Angel Pagan signed with the Giants. A Michael Bourn reunion seemed to be the way things would go. At the winter meetings, on December 5th, many Journalists and predicticators around the game felt it was a good bet to see Bourn in Phillies pinstripes. Yet, the next day, the Phillies traded for Ben Revere, leading many to speculate that the Bourn Ultimatum from Scott Boras was sky high.

As the chips continued to fall, Bourn (did I mention he was represented by Scott Boras?) remains unsigned. Texas and Seattle seemed the most likely landing spots, but the talk around Bourn has quieted to the point that many folks seem to forget he's still available.

Seattle doesn't seem to need him anymore, after trading for Michael Morse, and putting themselves in a position of having Raul Ibanez, Frankin Guiterrez, Jason Bay, Morse, Kendrys Morales and Justin Smoak to fill 1B/DH and three outfieldpositions. (another baffling offseason for Jack Z.)

So on January 18th, less than a month before spring training, unless a surprise team like the Braves decide to go after Bourn, or the Texas Rangers make a play, one has a hard time imagining where the speedster who has put up more fWAR since 2009 than Josh Hamilton, Matt Kemp, or Justin Upton will land.

Speaking of Upton, both the teams mentioned above seem to be on the peripherals of trading for him, which would leave one team left, and many in the industry believe that teams like Texas and Atlanta may be hesitant to drop the package necessary to land Justin Upton, or commit the dollars and years to Bourn, and instead, will hold their chips and wait for the inevitable Giancarlo Stanton big priced auction to happen sometime this summer or in the 2014 offseason, (when two other free agent center fielders, Curtis Granderson and Jacoby Elssbury, will hit the market).

So what's left then, for Michael Bourn? And how do the Phillies fit in?

The rub to most Phillies fans (myself included) on signing Bourn has been essentially two fold. Years and draft pick compensation. Signing Bourn means losing the first round pick, and coming into the offseason, it was expected that Scott Boras would demand a 5-7 year deal in excess of $15 million per year. A deal like that, for a "legs first" guy who just reached 30 years old would give pretty good value in the first few years, but man, talk about risk in years 4-5.

That said, as the market has shrunk, and so, likely has the deal. And before you comment on the deal he got for Prince Fielder, remember that Michael Bourn is not a household name. He's not a franchise making guy, not a human billboard, and so far, no team has lost their center fielder to a season ending knee injury. And when that happens, don't forget that the Oakland A's have two center fielders, in Coco Crisp and Chris Young, who are much more affordable stopgaps.

Then remember what Ryan Madson got last year.

If the market really has shrunk for Bourn (and I believe it has) to the point that a three year deal is the best he'll get, at 30 years old, you almost have to wonder if it isn't in Bourn's best interests to take a 1 year deal, and re-enter the market in the off season.

If that were to happen, hell, even on a two or three year deal, Michael Bourn makes a lot of sense for the Phillies.

Consider this lineup:

Bourn CF
Rollins SS
Utley 2B
Howard 1B
Young 3B
Ruf/Brown LF
Chooch C
Revere RF
Pitcher

When you look at the defensive value alone, and consider the run production and base running aspects, it's pretty exciting. You're looking at a completely different KIND of offense, but its a damn interesting one. One that might be a better offense that one where you go out and find a right handed bat to platoon with Laynce Nix.

The rub in all of this would be the draft pick compensation but depending on the market next off season, Bourn may be willing to come back on a 1 year qualifying offer (in the neighborhood of $14 million). if he doesn't, well you extend the QO and get the pick next year. For those of you who were in the Taco Pal "don't trade Victorino" camp this is essentially the same idea, but with, well, Michael Bourn. And with the way the QO system has worked so far, signing Michael Bourn to a 1 year deal, could essentially turn into a continual 1 year deal with an mutual option for x contract for as long as the Phillies value him at the current QO. Two to three years of QO value for Michael Bourn is a no brainer versus a draft pick, to me at least. Even with Ben Revere in the fold.

You now allow Brown and Revere to develop in 2013, Ruf gets the at-bats at Lehigh, Gillies progresses, and suddenly by July you have OF depth and major league trade value. Heck, Bourn himself is trade value.

Obviously should the market shrink this much, other teams will be quick to jump in as well, but it's something to consider. I for one would love to see the speed and stolen base potential with Bourn. Revere, Rollins, Utley and Brown in the same lineup.

Make it happen Rube.

Catz Out.

Catz Corner: The Truth About Non Roster Invitees

Joecatz — Thu, 17 Jan 2013 14:49:50 -0000

In the past few days, much has been made about the Phillies signing three non roster invitees, Aaron Cook, Juan Perez, and Rodrigo Lopez to minor league deals. Have they lost their mind? Is something really wrong with Halladay or Hamels? Are we going to trade Philippe Aumont and Jeremy Horst (a non roster invitee last year) and Justin Defratus for an OF?

Much of this is likely residual effects of a less than mind blowing off season filled with minor moves as opposed to a splash, but since its slow, I thought I'd take a minute to explain how the process works.

Teams regularly invite players to spring training that are not on the 40 man roster. These players come from a mix of minor leaguers currently in the system not ON the 40 man, and free agents who don't warrant a spot on the 40 man roster for various reasons. These players are invited for a variety of reasons, including:

1. Spring training depth (The Phillies have three catchers on the roster right now. Valle, Kratz, and Ruiz. They have 22 pitchers. Do the math.)

2. Organizational depth

3. Insurance against injury

4. Hopes of catching lightning in a bottle.

As of today there are 12 Non Roster Invitees currently scheduled to make it to Spring training. 2 are catchers (LeRud and Humberto Quintero) 5 are pitchers, 4 are infielders (including Mini Mart and Pete Orr) and one is an OF. Expect to see 5-6 more names, probably Cody Asche and Tommy Joseph for sure, and a few more from the farm system.

In 2012, the Phillies brought 18 Non Roster invitees to Camp. 10 pitchers (Dave Bush, Scott Elarton, Jeremy Horst, Austin Hyatt, Pat Misch, Joel Pinero, David Purcey, Bj Rosenberg, Brain Sanches and Raul Valdez, Dontrelle Willis). 2 catchers (LeRud and Tuffy Gosewich) 3 IF (Hector Luna, Pete Orr, Kevin Frandsen) and 3 OF (Juan Pierre, Lou Montanez, Scott Posednik)

By my count, 9 of those guys spent time on the big league roster, and some (Horst, Pierre, Valdez, Frandsen) made significant impacts. 2 others, Pinero and Willis, made no impact whatsoever.

But going into the spring, if anyone thought Pierre would get the AB's he did, or Frandsen would do what he did you would have been the guy I want to buy lottery tickets with. In addition, many, myself included, saw Willis as a sure bet for the bullpen. That said, imagine how the season would have went without some of these guys, depth wise, with all the crap that happened to the team. Thats the whole point of this.case in point look at NRI Josh Fields.

Fields was the 18th overall pick in the 2004 draft. he's played 217 major league games at 3b/1B and OF. (last in 2010) He's 30 years old and his major league numbers are pedestrian. But he's put up a 320/375/500 line at AAA last two years, with double digit home runs. If he has a good spring, and say, Frandsen doesn't, and Frandsen can't do what he did last year, and Michael Young (or God forbid Utley) goes down mid season? Welcome to Philly Josh Fields.

Thats the point of these signings. That and every now and they make the ML roster out of camp (Cruz and Cook both did this last season...)

In 2011, the Phils invited 19 NRI's. Some of the notable names who contributed to the team include Erik Kratz, Pete Orr, Michael Stutes, and Michael Schwimmer. Some others included Brandon Moss and Jason Grilli.

So the moral here is sometimes the guys who don't make the team, end up contributing elsewhere as well. (think 2010, and Ryan Vogelsong.)

Its been that way every year forever. between 17-20 NRI's every season.

So Aaron Cook could be this years Ryan Vogelsong. Or this years Joel Pinero, or this years Aaron Cook. We won't know until April. Or July, or maybe even July of 2014.Either way, we're not comitting money, other than for spring training here. So everyone gets a look.

Now if you'll excuse me, I need to work on my Philippe Aumont, Jeremy Horst, Justin DeFratus for Justin Upton piece.

Catz Out.

COUNTDOWN TO SPRING TRAINING: Pitchers and Catchers Report in Less than 30 Days!

Joecatz — Mon, 14 Jan 2013 14:58:38 -0000

Hope springs eternal. In less than 30 days pitchers and catchers will report to Bright House Field. The first full squad workout is scheduled for Thursday February 15th, three days later. Frenchys. Grouper sammies. 80 degrees in the breeze. The smell of salt water wafting through the air.

While the winter has been long, cold, and not quite what we've been accustomed to in recent years, I for one can't wait. In recent years, the only competition and questions surrounding the Phillies going into Spring Training have been centered upon filling depth holes to the pitching staff, and competition for bench spots. Aside from the Chase Utley "is he or isn't he ready to go" merry go round the past two years, the Phillies have gone into the spring with a pretty full roster in recent years.

They've also entered with at least one major off season acquisition. This year, they've made a few moves, but nothing that would be considered a "splash".

This year, that's all gonna be turned upside down. Many questions surround the 2013 Phillies, from age and injury bounce-backs, to youth and expectations.Who plays LF? Who plays RF? Who ends up in the rotation? Will Halladay be Halladay? Is Hamels shoulder really ok? Will Ryan Howard recover from his Achilles injury? Can newcomers Michael Young, Ben Revere and Mike Adams live up to expectations? (Or in the case of young, exceed them, cause lets face it, what are we really expecting?) Is this the year that Dom Brown finally lives up to potential? Is Darin Ruf the next Greg Luzinski, or just a flash in the pan? Will Erik Kratz be able to handle the job while Chooch is out?

How will the young guys not expected to break camp with the team, Asche, Joseph, etc.. on the 40 man roster going to look? Who will be the young player to impress a la Diekman or Stutes?

Speaking of Stutes, hey guys, remember Mike Stutes?

Are the Phillies really going to go into April without making another move? Seriously. They're not really gonna are they?

And yes. it would not be February if we didn't ask about Chase Utley's knee.

30 29 days and counting!

Is it Spring Training Yet?

So loyal readers, I ask of you. Three questions. simple answers in the comments.

1. What will be the biggest story to come out of Clearwater this spring?

2. Which player will be the biggest "surprise" of the spring and why?

3. What storyline are you most interested in this spring and why?

29 days!!!

And before you get all hope is lost on me before we've even started, I give you the 2011 OPENING DAY ROSTER. You know, from the year we won 102 games.

Wilson Valdez. Pete Orr. Michael Martinez. Ben Francisco. Ross Gload. Danny Baez. JC Romero.

And your 2011 opening day lineup?

Victorino CF
Polanco 3B
Rollins SS
Howard 1B
Ibanez LF
Ben Francisco RF
Carlos Ruiz C
Wilson Valdez 2B
Halladay P

Let that sink in. Now send positive thoughts to Chase Utleys knees, Roy and Coles shoulders, and Ryans Achillies. and maybe Ryan's bats against lefties too.

Catz Corner: Hey Man, How 'Bout Some Consistency?

Joecatz — Fri, 11 Jan 2013 14:56:00 -0000

Much has been made over the past few days about the Hall of Fame. Before I go any further, I should probably voice my own opinion on the subject.

1. For me, the Hall of Fame is a museum, not a shrine. It's a place where fathers bring sons to explore the magic of baseball together. A place where generations meld together.

2. Like any museum, it should be about history. History is good and bad. Both are intertwined. Some of the best good this game has seen (Jackie Robinson breaking the color barrier) has been forged by bad (decades of segregation and the negro leagues). Steroids and the PED era are part of the game, part of its history, and should be addressed accordingly.

3. That said, I don't believe players who have been proven guilty (Rafael Palmeiro) or admitted to taking them (Bonds) should be inducted into the hall UNTIL Baseball and the hall of Fame come out with a policy, and choose to acknowledge it at the Hall of Fame.

4. However, as rampant as the use was during that era, to find people guilty by association (Bagwell, Piazza, etc...) is wrong. It happened, but you'll never know who did it.

4. But Barry Bonds deserves to eventually be in the Hall of Fame.

I believe that in my gut.

So did Jon Heyman as recently as April 2011. How much so? This is a direct quote from the article. (Thanks to 88Lindros and Justin F for bringing this to the forefront.)

The standards are high in a court of law, as they should be. For the Hall, it's a judgment call. Scoundrels and cheats are already in. So are foul-tempered jerks. Bonds may be all three. He is also one of the three greatest players I ever saw in his prime, along with Alex Rodriguez and Rickey Henderson. A baseball Hall of Fame would be empty without Bonds.

While I do believe Bonds took steroids (whether it was knowingly or not doesn't much matter to me, though if I had to guess, I think he knows everything that goes in his body), I don't believe all steroid users should be excluded from the Hall of Fame. I'm not here to sit in moral judgment of another human being.

Jon Heyman. April 2011.

Good for you Jon. Well, sort of. Apparently his stance changed. I'll let you read the article yourself (in which he makes his cases for everyone, and NO he didn't vote for Biggio). But he basically went from not caring about roids to penalizing anyone he THOUGHT MIGHT HAVE A CONNECTION (including Mike Piazza and Jeff Bagwell, who have never had any proof held up towards them using, but played in the era.Oh shit. I have to put one quote in.

If someone wants to say the Hall of Fame wouldn't be the same without Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, I understand that, too

That someone was YOU Jon! How bout that?

When I questioned him on this here's how he replied:

@joecatz i mentioned in recent column i had been leaning other way (tho i didnt remember column from 2 yrs ago)

@joecatz there have been lots of thoughts advanced for 2 years. eventually, i felt i needed to be fair to players who played it straight

Look, I give him some props. he voted for Fred McGriff, who is about as clean as anyone, and deserves, IMO to be in the hall. But even Fred is suspect here.

From 1988 to 1994 Fred McGriff had a .288/.390/.545 line and averaged 35 HRs and 95 RBI per season.

Entering his age 31 season in 1995, and for the next four years, McGriff's power numbers declined every year. He averaged 24 home runs, the same 94 RBI, but saw his line shrink to .284/.363/.464, a drop of almost 100 SLG points.

From 1999 to 2002 (coincidentally the year the drug policy was put into effect) his age 34-37 seasons, McGriff averaged 30HRs, 104 RBI and saw his slash line improve to .291/.379/.512.

In 2003 he put up a 750 OPS. he slugged 306 in 2004 and was out of the game.

I questioned him on this as well. His response?

Joe Catanzariti ‏@joecatz

@JonHeymanCBS How do you determine who "played it straight? McGriff clean as hell, HUGE power surge at 35 from 99-2002, in TB w/Canseco..

Fred McGriff, Age 35

Ny the way, as I mentioned in my tweet, 1999 was the year Jose Canseco played with McGriff on the Rays. Anyone who played with Jose was around steroids. right? It's six degrees of Jose Canseco.

So a shit ton of circumstantial evidence that can go either way, no different for McGriff (who I believe was clean) than anyone else. I'm sure I could make the same case somehow for anyone else who played in the era, on anyone's ballot at any time. Throw me a name in the comments and I'll find a connection. Guaranteed.

The point here is not to point fingers at Fred McGriff, or even Jon Heyman. The point is no one has a crystal ball. No one knows anything other than any player who played in that era is suspect or clean.

And guys like John Heyman, who looked the other way for years (and kudos to him for admitting it).

Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS

Yes, agree, the writers (myself included) did poor job of covering roids in the '90s. Not proud of that.

Are the last people who should be throwing stones. and man, no one should be so damn congratulatory for looking a blind eye.

Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS

Proud of @CBSSports and @MLBNetwork voters, who stood against steroids. @ScottMCBS @DKnobler @Ken_Rosenthal @pgammo verducci

Proud? yeah. You should all be real proud of yourselves.

Catz Out.

John Sickels Top 20 Phillies Prospects for 2013

Joecatz — Mon, 31 Dec 2012 16:14:51 -0000

John Sickels has posted his top 20 Phillies prospect list over at our sister site minorleagueball.com the complete article can be seen HERE.

In addition, here's

Sickels top 20 from 2012

No surprise with number one as Jesse Biddle tops the list, as he did over at Baseball America and should likely continue to do on any other lists going into 2013. Biddle was ranked second last year, and interestingly enough, was the only top 5 prospect from 2012 to stay in the top five. Last years top prospect Trevor May was traded for Ben Revere (Sickels mentions that he would have had a B- ranking, putting him anywhere from #3 to #11 for 2013) and neither Sebastian Valle (3) Brody Colvin (4) or Larry Greene (5) cracked the top ten. Valle was the only one to make the top 20, at number 12. Not sure if that says more about how much the system improved, or how much those guys faltered, but I tend to think its more the former.

May and Biddle were both B+ guys last year, and we had another 6 B- guys. to give you an idea just how thin the system was going into 2012, Michael Schwimmer was number 9, with a C+ ranking.

In 2013, the first C+ player is Sebastian Valle at 12. So basically, Valle went from a B- to a C+ and dropped almost 10 spots. Thats organizational improvement for sure.

That said, there's some interesting discrepancies between the BBA top ten and Sickels.

BBA:

1. Biddle 2. Quinn 3. Joseph 4.Pettibone 5. Morgan 6. Martin 7. Asche. 8. Franco 9. Ruf 10. Carlos Tocci

SICKELS:

1. Biddle 2. Morgan 3. Quinn 4. Joseph 5. Pettibone 6. Asche 7. Ruf 8. Martin 9. Franco 10: Shane Watson

Both lists have the same players in the top five, with Sickels being much higher on Adam Morgan than BBA. Sickels on Morgan:

2) Adam Morgan, LHP, Grade B: This guy deserves more attention. Stuff kicked up a notch from college, into the low-90s, and he already knew how to throw strikes and locate his secondary pitches. Can also be a mid-rotation starter. This is an aggressive grade and ranking.

in the bottom half of the top ten, 6-9 on both lists show the subjectivity of individual prospect analysis, with Asche, Ethan Martin, Maikel Franco and Darin Ruf all taking the same slots in slightly different order, though Sickels also is higher on Darin Ruf, having this to say:

7) Darin Ruf, 1B-OF, Grade B-: I believe in the bat. Defense and age 26 keep him from elite prospect status, doesn't have further projection, but that's OK since he's already good. I felt Ruf was a nice sleeper pre-season but I did not expect 41 homers and he hit 10 more in winter ball. I thought he was more of a .260, 10-15-homer role player bat, but I can see him as a .280, 20-25 homer guy now.

Lets hope he's right.

The real interesting discrepancy, is in the 10 slot, where BBA has Carlos Tocci, While Sickels ranks 2012 first rounder Shane Watson there. Whats interesting, is that Tocci doesn't crack Sickels top 20.

THE GOOD:

I have to admit that as a former non believer in Darin Ruf, it's encouraging to see both BBA and Sickels list him in their top ten, and Sickels opinion and belief certainly makes me feel much better about his sleeper potential.

Between Asche and Franco at 3B, Biddle and Morgan in the rotation, and Joseph behind the plate, the phillies certainly have capable, close to ready talent provided the brass doesn't try and deplete the system between now and July 31st for this years Hunter Pence. And man, we've got some capable relief options both ready now (Aumont (13) , Defratus (17)) as well as a decent sleeper in Tyler Knigge Kyle Simon (19, acquired in the Thome trade) etc...

The NOT SO GOOD:

Sebastian Valle clearly is the number two catcher in the system now and continues his decline from top ten status. And as much as I love his twitter handle, Sickels feels Jiwan James is a lost cause at this point. Tyson gillies doesn't crack the top twenty, so two years after the Cliff Lee Trade, Philipe Aumont remains the sole top 20 prospect as a reliever. Gillies needs to have an injury free season to tap his potential for sure. But he may also be falling off the radar, especially after the off field incidents and the Ben Revere signing. but a solid first half from him could see his trade value rise at the deadline.

And man, Brody Colvin, Larry Greene both go from top 5 prospects to not making the list in a year.

All in all about what you should expect, but wow, what a difference a year makes.

Catz (OF) Corner: Three Routes to the Ball.

Joecatz — Fri, 14 Dec 2012 15:26:03 -0000

A combination sigh of relief and sigh of angst swept through the Delaware Valley yesterday when the Los Angeles Angels swept in out of nowhere and signed Josh Hamilton to a five year, $125 million deal. Many Phillies fans were expecting Ruben Amaro to swoop in on Hamilton, after trading Vance Worley, Trevor May, Josh Lindblom and Lisalverto Bonilla for Ben Revere and Michael Young last couple of weeks. Well, that didn't happen, for better or for worse and now the Phillies find themselves in a curious predicament in regards to their options in the outfield.

There are basically three paths (or routes) that Ruben can take, and we're going to examine them.

ROUTE 1: FREE AGENCY

The simplest, quickest and most dangerous route to the ball. Think of that diving gapper between left and center with runners on second and third and two outs down one run in the bottom of the ninth. If you catch the ball, you save the game, if it drops and goes past you lose, and if you let it fall in front, you tie, and hope the throw gets the second runner.

There are three free agent options left that could bring some value to the table. Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher and Cody Ross. The biggest issue with all three of these guys is that Hamilton's signing with a surprise team likely gives them all more leverage than they had two days ago. Bourn is probably out, just based on the years he'll get and the fact that Revere makes him less desirable. So let's focus on Swisher and Ross.

Ross is the cheaper option here. Likely getting a three year deal around $8mm per. However, Ross is coming off of arguably his best season since 2008, putting up 2.4 fWAR in just 137 games, with a .267/.326/.471 triple slash. He hit 22 home runs, drove in 81 runs and put up a .204 ISO while providing positive UZR and UZR150 in the field. he also MASHED left handed pitching to the tune of a .285/.373/.636 line.with just 16BB to 25Ks in 150 ABs

Yes folks. Cody Ross had a 1.010 OPS against LHP. Sounds pretty tasty right?

Well, he also put up a .256/.308/.422 line in 2012 against RHP. with the 26BB to 104Ks. That line was done on a BABIP of .332.

Call me crazy but I don't really know if that's a great allocation of $8mm over three years for a glorified platoon bat, especially when you consider that the BULK of his AB's are gonna be against RHP.

Nick Swisher is probably a pretty good fit for this team. He's a high OBP guy who can hit it out of the park, and a switch hitter to boot. A three or four year deal would be palatable, but that's not going to happen. In fact, multiple ~~horses~~ sources have reported that he's in no hurry to sign, preferring to wait out the market in the aftermath of the Hamilton deal. With the Rangers having lost out on Hamilton and Grienke and possibly Upton, and teams like Cleveland and Seattle in the mix, desperate for an impact player in a location less than desirable, the market for Swisher could balloon. Swisher could be the guy who benefits the most from Hamilton going to Los Angeles. He'll get a minimum five year deal at this point. If the Phillies passed on five year deals for Hamilton, and Upton, and a four year deal for Pagan, I'm not sure the logic works to go after Swisher for five years.

The last time the Phils signed a non homegrown position player to a deal longer than three years was in 2002 (David Bell got four and Jim Thome got seven) Going back to 1978, I found three other position players signed to deals longer than three years. Pete Rose, Greg Jefferies and Lance Parrish. Of those five players, NONE OF THEM PLAYED OUT THEIR CONTRACTS. All were traded or released. The point here is that free agent deals longer than three years rarely pan out. Combine the cost ($10-15mm per) and how that affects the rest of the holes to the pitching staff and consider that Swisher also will cost the 16th overall pick in the draft, a Swisher signing, to me at least, is less appealing than a trade involving a high level prospect... It's a pure panic/desperation play that pretty much goes against everything else RAJ has pulled off this off season by not going after Upton, Pagan, or Hamilton. To give that kind of money to Swisher now?

That's making a move just to make a move. Not saying it won't happen, but I'm not banking on it.

So let's look at the trade market.

ROUTE II: TRADE EM ALL!!

Another risky route, but probably less risky than the last, think a soaring line drive just over the wall, with the bases loaded, up by three runs in the 7th inning with one out. You have to time the jump just right, but if you do, you save the game with one dazzling play. If not, well, your down, but not necessarily out.

Barring some underpay of epic proportions, big names like Justin Upton and Giancarlo Stanton are just not in the cards folks. The prospects necessary to make a deal like that happen, even if it were possible, just aren't there. Other teams have deeper resources as well, even if Ruben gave away the whole farm, so you're left with second tier guys.

The names that have been bandied about include (in no particular order) Josh Willingham, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, and Alfonso Soriano. You can probably add one of Peter Bourjos or Mark Trumbo to the list, and I'm sure the Angels would love to dump Vernon Wells on someone, after the Hamilton signing. I'm certainly missing some names, and there are probably unknown persons available as well. The Phillies still have a decent number of prospects to deal from, if they wanted, and would likely prefer to center a deal around one of their catchers, Sebastian Valle or Tommy Joseph. One of Domonic Brown (whose name was linked to the Cubs) or Darin Ruf likely becomes expendable in a trade as well. Of the names above, the team that jumps out here is Chicago, and Soriano.

Soriano is coming off a pretty good season, putting up 4.0 fWAR, off a .262/.322/.499 line with 32 HR and 108 RBIs. Soriano has always been a BABIP infused hitter. last year, he had a BABIP of .303. going back to 2002, he's put up a minimum of 3.0 fWAR in every season that his BABIP was above 295 with the exception of 2004, when he put up 2.1 fWAR in 145 games. There are only 2 other seasons 2009 (.279 BABIP 0.0 fWAR) and 2011 (.266 1.8 fWAR) where he put up less than 3.0 fWAR in that period.

If the reports are true that the Cubs are willing to eat $26mm of the $36mm left on his 2 year deal, for the right prospect, Soriano could end up being a huge bargain. The question becomes the prospect. Chicago fits the bill for the Catcher swap. But if that isn't enough, and you're talking about Dom Brown? No thanks. Giving up cost control of Brown for two years of Alfonso Soriano just doesn't sit well with me. So whats left?

ROUTE III: Stick to your guns.

The absolute safest play of them all. Its a lazy pop fly. All you gotta do is catch it, and hope that the guy you got out there puts his glove up and does his job.

How the hell long have we been waiting for Dom Brown? The Hamate is healed, and as Schmenkman pointed out in a comment in another thread, here's a list of comparables to Brown over his "bust period of the past two years"

Brett Wallace – 99 wRC+
Danny Espinosa – 99
Domonic Brown – 96
Cameron Maybin – 96
Pedro Alvarez – 95
Justin Smoak – 94
Mitch Moreland – 92
Dustin Ackley – 90
Mike Moustakas – 88
Delmon Young – 88
Colby Rasmus – 87

Seriously. That's who has performed roughly the same as Dom Brown. He absolutely deserves a chance this season.

So what about the other corner? Ruf? Nixberry? Well, kids, maybe its just time to find out if Darin Ruf is for real or some AAAA with a bunch of holes masquerading as the next Greg Luzinski. If you just stand the hell pat, you give yourself a few months to figure that out. . If it works, they'll look like geniuses, and have a plethora of available cash at the deadline and in the off season. If it doesn't work? They'll have the same damn chips in front of them at the deadline and probably more choices on the market. The only way it kills you, the only real risk, is if both Ruf and Brown flop, they both get hurt, or they both just suck. That's a risk worth taking in my book, when put into context with the options.

Take the money, put it into the rotation, and go with the youth movement. And from an asses in the seats perspective? From a cable deal perspective? Do you think the WIP crowd would rather see Nick Swisher, Cody Ross, Alfonso Soriano or Darin freakin' Ruf?

Exactly. And you know what? I think I'd rather see it too. You know what else I'd like to see? Underdogs. For the first time in years the Phillies won't be "The team to beat" in the National League preseason. Hell, they won't even be the team to beat in the division.

They'll be underdogs.

Which team would you rather see? The one coming off the 2011 season that broke down and crushed you because there were guaranteed givens and certainty about playoff berths, or THE TEAM with the fairly unproven outfield, that develops under your eyes into something special?

Look at that opening day roster from 2008 again.

Then dream a little.

I know my answer.

That teams big ticket acquisition that offseason if I recall was Pedro Feliz.

And the team that won the World Series last year?

Their big free agent acquisition was Ryan Theriot.

If you have to spend, Take the Swisher money, go out and get Mike Adams and a starting pitcher, and let the kids play!.

It's the safe route, its the unspectacular route, and it might just be the best route to the postseason for years to come.

Catz Out.

Phillies in "Advanced" Talks to Acquire Michael Young?

Joecatz — Thu, 06 Dec 2012 09:12:53 -0000

According to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News the Phillies are in advanced discussions to acquire Michael Young from the Texas Rangers and cash for a major league reliever and possibly another prospect. For the deal to happen, Young would have to be willing to waive his 10-5 rights. Noted Michael Young apologist Jim Salisbury is also reporting from the Phillies side that the talks are hot and heavy.

The news was actually first reported at about 5:30 on Sirius XM by Jim Bowden, but the first print mention of it by a reputable beat writer didn't happen until nearly midnight. This kind of tells you two things:

1. It's more than a rumor. Say what you want about Bowden, but he's been near 100% this off season regarding this stuff, and seems to have the most direct real info on who's talking to who of anyone covering the game right now.

2. The fact that a Dallas beat writer is writing about it, followed by Salisbury, means that whatever deal is in place is pretty much happening unless Young vetoes it, and he's been informed. So hold on to your butts folks.

Young, who makes $16mm this season, has played a total of 65 games at third base the past two seasons, and hit .277/.312/.370 fueled mostly by his .257/.291/.352 split against RHP which is worse than Kevin Frandsen's career line. To call him a sub prime defender at this stage in his career is almost giving him too much credit as well.

Did I mention that he just turned 36 a few months ago?

Pretty horrible idea, huh?

Well, maybe not. Before I get lynched (and truth be told I'm trying to turn lemons into lemonade here) let's remember the devil is in the details. THIS ARTICLE was written the last time these rumors were out there, and it still rings true with one important difference. Young is in the last year of his deal. That's a big difference.

The positives:

He's played in at least 156 games every season but 2009 (136) since 2002.

Say what you want about clubhouse presence, but this guy has it, and for some reason that's very important to both Ruben and Charlie this off season. They know more than we do, but that signals something about the inner working of the team behind closed doors last year.

If they do in fact go cheap here (say $4mm) that frees up money for two outfield spots.

Its a one year deal. If your option is hurt Kevin Youkilis at 2/$24mm or old Michael Young at 1/$4mm I think I take Young. Cody Asche gets another year to develop and hopefully he can take over in 2014.

Yeah, thats all I got.

Seriously, before we go all ballistic here, lets see what the details are. There's a huge difference between getting Michael Young for BJ Rosenberg and a kid from Lakewood with a good fastball that we have to look up to find out if we got hosed on his ceiling, vs. paying half his salary and sending Phillippe Aumont and Gabriel Lino.

This is just speculation on my part, but if this happens, it likely means that the Phillies plan on trading for a center fielder from a list of names that includes Dexter Fowler, Ben Revere, Peter Bourjos, Curtis Granderson and Jacoby Ellsbury. If they should land one of the cheaper guys, they would still have the ability to go after a premium corner guy like Nick Swisher or Josh Hamilton as well.

They could also just sign Michael Bourn and trade for a corner guy, like Josh Willingham.

Point is this is a precursory move, likely dictated by the numbers Youkilis is looking for and the lack of options on the market at the hot corner. That said, this smells like a bad idea. Michael Young is to Texas what Mike Schmidt was to Philly for all those years. He's been the face of their franchise, a perennial all-star, and he's known around the game as a pretty fantastic leader and teammate. Mike Olt and Jurickson Profar be damned, you just don't trade a guy like that in the last year of his contract if he has ANYTHING left in the tank. You let him leave gracefully, on his own terms. And Texas approached Philly apparently, which says a lot. It would be one thing if they were looking to dump payroll here. They're apparently not. They're looking to get ANYTHING OF VALUE for a guy they don't see having much value anymore.

Hopefully the good that comes out of this is that this just may be the piece of information that brings TACO PAL out of hiding.