SB Nation User Blog: John (obviousman)

Week 15 Chargers Playoff Scenarios

John (obviousman) — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 02:13:00 -0000

The San Diego Chargers are closing in on clinching a playoff berth. The Chargers, who are 10-3 and have won eight straight games, can clinch their fourth straight AFC West title when they host Cincinnati on Sunday.

Here are the scenarios:

San Diego clinches AFC West division title with:

1) DEN loss

or

2) SD win or tie + DEN tie

San Diego clinches a first-round bye with:

SD win + DEN loss or tie + NE loss or tie

San Diego clinches a playoff spot with:

1) SD win or tie

or

2) NE loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + MIA loss or tie

or

3) NE loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie

or

4) MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie

or

5) MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + JAC loss or tie

or

6) MIA loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + JAC loss or tie

or

7) NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + JAC loss or tie

BFTB Answers Your Chargers Questions

John (obviousman) — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 17:29:32 -0000

Hey, Bengals fans. My name is John and I run Bolts From The Blue, SB Nation's community for Chargers fans.

Every week of the NFL season I've been posting a FanPost at the community of the Chargers' upcoming opponent to help answer any questions the fans might have going into the game. It's been a rousing success, both fun and educational, and I expect much of the same to happen here.

Usually I do my post on Tuesday. Mondays are meant for reflection from the previous week. However, immediately after the final whistle of both the games in Minnesota and Dallas yesterday, fans were already talking about this game. It is, essentially, a playoff game. That's why I'm pushing it up a day.

Both teams have battled injuries all year, and both would welcome the opportunity to have a bye week. Also, both teams have holes (Cincy has offensive issues, the Chargers have defensive issues) and need to enter the playoffs with some momentum if they want to make any noise.

This isn't anything new to you guys. You know this game is huge. Anything you don't already know about the Chargers, feel free to post in the comments and I'll make sure to respond ASAP.

Please do me two favors. One, keep the trash-talking to a minimum. I'm not a very nice person when I go into that mode and I'd prefer to be able to come back here should these teams face each other in the playoffs without having enemies or being banned. Two, Rec this FanPost so that it stays towards the top of the home page.

Highlights from yesterday's win over the Cowboys.

John (obviousman) — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 16:23:07 -0000

Highlights from yesterday's win over the Cowboys.

Bolts & Dolts: Chargers at Cowboys

John (obviousman) — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 10:30:41 -0000

More photos » by Amy Gutierrez - AP

1 day ago: San Diego Chargers tight end Antonio Gates (85) pulls in a touchdown pass in the second half of an NFL football game against the Dallas Cowboys, Sunday, Dec. 13, 2009 in Arlington, Texas. The Chargers won 20-17. (AP Photo/Amy Gutierrez)

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When you factor in things like how the opposing teams have played in the games immediately before or after their showdown with the Chargers, you could make a case that this Cowboys team is the 2nd or 3rd best team the Bolts have faced all year. Although it's December, they're playing much better than they were in the beginning of the season (when the Broncos beat them) and it was going to take a complete game by the coaching staff and players to get a win.

Well, that was about as complete of a game as you can have in the NFL against a legitimate opponent. The defense, similar to the game against the Browns, seemed to play a soft zone in the beginning and end of the game. They struggled to stop any of the Cowboys three star RBs, and yet Dallas was only able to score one meaningful touchdown in the game. I have no idea how Ron Rivera keeps doing it, but he continually keeps points off the board.

The offense is currently unstoppable. It's clicking in a way it never has before, with Philip Rivers playing his best football and Norv Turner calling all the right plays at the right times. It helps when you have 5 guys on the field who are receiving threats on any given play. Even LaDainian Tomlinson, who isn't much of a feature-back these days, seems to become a better player near the goal line and whenever the Chargers need a big run for a first down.

It's a good time to be a Chargers fan. The division crowd, the playoffs and a first round bye are no longer just dreams.

Bolts

Offense

Philip Rivers - 21/32, 272 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT. Whomever is disappointed that Philip didn't have another game with a QB rating of over 130, please leave the room. This was not the Browns and it was not the Chiefs. This was a legitimate NFL defense with very few holes. The pass-rush was there all game, and kept Philip stepping up in the pocket and sometimes running for his life. The CBs played a great game, Mike Jenkins in particular. Rivers and his WRs were just better. Any time you can post a near 90 QB rating against one of the better defenses in the league, count it as a victory.

Vincent Jackson - 7 catches, 120 yds. Well, well, well....somebody's back. In reality, VJ never left. This game wasn't about him breaking out as much as it was the defense going with a different philosophy. In the last few games, the idea was to double Jackson on every play. That left things open for Antonio Gates. This game, the Cowboys did the opposite and VJ came through in a big way. Huge plays by him and Rivers are the reason this game wasn't lost. They kicked the team back into high gear after the injury to DeMarcus Ware.

Antonio Gates - 4 catches, 44 yds, 1 TD. Need a first down on third down? Need a TD from inside the 15 yard line? Go to the guy who is completely and totally uncoverable. Philip didn't need to force passes to him this game, and didn't, but when he needed that outlet to get the team out of a jam Gates was there. He always is.

Malcom Floyd - 3 catches, 40 yds. First off, his catch on the sideline was absolutely ridiculous. Second, Floyd is a Pass-Interference machine....which actually makes sense. His speed is not that great, so it's rare that you see him more than a half-step ahead of his defenders downfield. However, he has a reputation for catching everything and is the king of jump balls. So any CB covering him is close by, and knows that just getting his hands in Floyd's face isn't going to do a thing. Add in the fact that he's skinny (so it always looks like he's the one that got pushed) and he could get PI called against a CB nearly every time if he tried. It's great that Norv has figured this out, and knows there's no risk in throwing it to Floyd one-on-one downfield, and calls it when a big play is necessary.

Offensive Line - 1 sack allowed. Say what you want about the run-blocking. It's at least three times more important to keep Rivers upright and healthy than it is opening holes for LT and Darren Sproles. That was a fierce pass-rush, with lots of blitzing (I miss Phillips' recklessness sometimes), and the offensive line gave Philip just enough time and space to make plays. Even that one sack, you could argue that it happened because Rivers didn't move in the pocket when he should've. Great showing by everyone, and specifically the tackles. I don't know where Scott Mruczkowski and Brandyn Dombrowski fit into the future of the offensive line, but with them and Jeromey Clary and Nick Hardwick it would appear the Bolts have a plethora of talent up front for next year.

Defense

Brandon Siler - 5 tackles, 1 sack, 2 tackles for loss. That's it. Let there be no more doubt in anybody's mind. Brandon Siler is a Player, with a capital P, and has earned the right to start ahead of Kevin Burnett for the rest of the season. He makes the run-defense stronger, gets pressure on the QB when blitzing and is generally a force that can mess up any given play for the offense. Give him the most credit for the goal-line stand (his specialty), and give him credit for being strong in coverage all game as well.

Stephen Cooper - 3 tackles, 2 defended passes, 1 forced fumble. The best game of zone coverage Coop has played all season. I don't really care that he didn't pick off the passes he got his hands on, because I believe most of them were big 3rd down plays. Cooper had an OK game against the run as well, which is why you saw a lot more runs to the outside (away from him and Siler) as time went on.

Special Teams

Mike Scifres - 42.0 average, 2 (of 3) inside opposing 20 yd line. Follow this theory, dreamed up by my wife. With about 10 second left to go in the first half, Scifres came out for his first punt (that's kindof amazing). The punt landed inside the Cowboys' 5 and bounced into the end zone. When the camera showed Mike, he was screaming "Man, what the @#$&!" at somebody. I couldn't tell why, and my wife said "I guess he wanted somebody to down it. You know, for his stats." My response was "Screw his stats, it's the end of the half!" Well, if the following theory is correct, I'm the only idiot.

In the second half, Mike punted twice. Each time it was downed inside the Cowboys' 5 yard line by Kassim Osgood. After each time, Kassim stayed where he downed it, held the ball up and looked back at where the play originated from. I originally thought he was just doing it as a celebration, and to show the refs where he was. My wife was the one who said "I bet he's showing the ball to Scifres." If that's the case, and it makes the most sense, then good job by Mike to get on Kassim. That field position meant the world in the second half. Oh, and....

Kassim Osgood - 2 downed punts inside the Cowboys' 5. You could argue that, between Osgood and Mike Tolbert, the Chargers have two of the ten best special teams players in football. I'd certainly argue that point. The Bolts are going to have big shoes to fill on punt returns next season when Osgood is playing WR somewhere else.

Nate Kaeding - 2/2 FGs, 2/2 XPs. I love that stat that shows up every time he kicks now, the most accurate kicker in the history of the NFL. Kaeding is everything that everybody thought Mike Nugent would be. If you're within 45 yards of the goal post, it's a guaranteed 3 points. Beyond that, you still have a good chance.

Dolts

Offense

There were no offensive Dolts this week.

Defense

Defensive Line - 4.0 YPC allowed, zero sacks. This probably isn't their fault. There just isn't enough talent on the line to dominate anybody anymore. Still, each guy on the line was getting pushed around with ease and I don't believe any of them were demanding anything more than a single blocker. This is a big reason why Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips were held in check as pass-rushers and run-stoppers. The defensive line allowed a lot of easy runs up the gut, and didn't take up the blockers to free up LBs to stop the runs to the outside either. Whether or not they can do it, the Bolts may need the defensive line to play better than that to win any playoff games.

Almost Bolts

Mike Tolbert - Quite a weapon on offense, and quite a hitter on special teams. I'm left scratching my head as to why he didn't carry the ball once all game, but I'm sure Norv has his reasons. Perhaps, like me, he doesn't yet trust him to hold onto the ball in a close game?
LaDainian Tomlinson - Just what we've come to expect from LT. Smart running, timely big plays and a knack for never fumbling the football. Has anyone else noticed that he never loses yardage anymore? A handoff to LT these days is a guaranteed 2 yards or more.
Antonio Cromartie - He's gotta be the best man-to-man CB in the league right now. In man, he was untouchable. In zone, he was good but not great. The Quentin Jammer-Antonio Cromartie tandem is playing at the highest combined level ever right now. That's why you see teams putting their star WRs (like Miles Austin) in the slot, to get away from those guys.
Safeties - Nobody mistook these Safeties for Eric Weddle or Troy Polamalu out there, but the same philosophies were in place and played out. Paul Oliver, Steve Gregory, Kevin Ellison and C.J. Spillman did not allow big plays through the air and prevented big plays on the ground with sound tackling. I personally can't wait until Gregory can slide back down to the Nickel CB spot again and Weddle can start roaming centerfield like always. It's my belief that the run defense, as well as the man-defense on the slot receiver, is a lot better with Gregory down near the line of scrimmage.
Tim Dobbins - The poor man's Brandon Siler. He played well in goal line situations.
Larry English - He got the closest to Tony Romo out of the OLBs. As with most of this season though, English was close but couldn't make the play.

Chargers Defeat Cowboys 20-17, Continue Winning Streak

John (obviousman) — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 00:18:29 -0000

More photos » by Sharon Ellman - AP

1 day ago: San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers (17) passes as Dallas Cowboys linebacker Anthony Spencer (93) and defensive end Stephen Bowen (72) defend in the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Dec. 13, 2009 in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Sharon Ellman)

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Well, this day has worked out just lovely, hasn't it? The Chargers defeat the Cowboys, and look good doing it, and the Broncos and Bengals both lose their games. A win against the Bengals next week and Norv can start thinking about resting players on Christmas and against Washington.

This a team that's not just about their personnel, but about their coaching. Ron Rivera managed to hold the Cowboys to 10 points (those last 7 were in garbage time) with any run defense (outside of the goal line stand). Norv Turner looked like he knew every Dallas defensive call before Wade Phillips did. Play-calling on both sides of the ball was absolutely perfect. It's the performance of the coaching that has been the biggest factor in the Chargers winning 8 straight games in 2009, and 16 straight games in the month of December.

Philip Rivers won the battle of the QBs against Tony Romo, and I will not hear it differently. Romo had the benefit of a strong running game, and the defenses were playing just about the same, yet he could not consistently get first downs. Besides the 99 yard drive (that Tony was barely involved in), I was not very impressed by the Cowboys offense today. Rivers did everything he possibly could (including avoiding many rushes) to win this game and looked great doing it (besides the interception).

Some quick Bolts are below. As always, your feedback is appreciated and will be a part of the final selections after I re-watch the game.

Final - 12.13.2009	1	2	3	4	Total
San Diego Chargers	7	3	0	10	20
Dallas Cowboys	3	0	7	7	17

Complete Coverage >

Chargers at Cowboys, 2nd Half Thread

John (obviousman) — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 22:35:00 -0000

More photos » by Amy Gutierrez - AP

1 day ago: Dallas Cowboys special teams coach Joe Decamillis, rear, looks on as quarterback Tony Romo (9) holds for kicker Nick Folk (6) before the start of an NFL football game against the San Diego Chargers, Sunday, Dec.13, 2009 in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Amy Gutierrez)

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If you're wondering where I've been, I managed to break my pinky knuckle in a fight with a wall (which makes typing this extremely painful). I'll be back in fighting shape by tomorrow though, I'm sure.

The Bolts looked great in the first half, and if they could come out in the 2nd half with a TD they could take away the Cowboys running game in a hurry. Also, a bigger lead would probably get more carries for Mike Tolbert, which can only help matters at this point.

Chargers at Cowboys, 1st Half Thread

John (obviousman) — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 19:55:30 -0000

It's late in the season and it seems that each week the Chargers are playing the most important game of the season. This one is no different. The Chargers great December record against Dallas' poor December record in a matchup of teams that are fighting for division titles and need this win badly.

Game Thread: Early Games

John (obviousman) — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 17:50:58 -0000

We went over yesterday which games should interest you and which ones shouldn't. The conversation will be fun in the comments below, and I'll keep you guys abreast of all news around the NFL down there as well.

NFL Sunday TV Viewing Guide

John (obviousman) — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 14:48:00 -0000

Do you have DirecTV and the NFL Sunday Ticket package? Do you work at, or spend your Sundays at, a bar that does? Do you have a laptop computer so that you can watch scores while watching the game?

Well, here you go. This is the first installment of your NFL Sunday TV Viewing Guide. This is to let you, the Chargers fan, know how to plan your day and which games to keep an eye on. I'll also add in the reasons to watch, and any potential storylines.

1pm EST Games to Watch

There are six(!) games that you should keep an eye on as you settle into that groove on your couch this Sunday.

Broncos at Colts - This is simple enough. The Chargers have a 1 game lead in the AFC West. If the undefeated Colts can keep their winning streak going, that lead can either stay at one (with a SD loss) or grow to two (with just 3 games left). The Colts are the best regular-season team in the league, and they absolutely love playing at home. Their starters will go because they're still playing for that playoff bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The only possible reason for concern is that Peyton Manning does not play his best football against 3-4 defenses.
Jets at Buccaneers - Chargers fans could use a Tampa Bay victory, and there's reason to believe it may happen. The Jets are starting backup QB Kellen Clemens, and the young Bucs have been playing decent football since Josh Freeman took over as the starting QB. A good game by Freeman, as well as TB winning the turnover battle, and Raymond James Stadium will be rocking.
Bengals at Vikings - The Bolts main competition at this point of the season is Denver and Cincinnati. Cincy has the same record as San Diego, and both teams are competing for the last available playoff bye. A win against the Bengals next week would certainly help the Chargers chances, but there's no harm in getting started this week. The Vikings will also be a good barometer for just how good the Bengals are, and will hopefully find some holes in a very good Bengals defense.
Dolphins at Jaguars - I really don't know how this factors in, but it does. A Jacksonville win helps the Chargers clinch the playoffs just that much quicker. I've found the Dolphins to be a fun team to watch this season, and Chad Henne looks like he could be a heck of a QB in the future. The Jags have been a roller-coasted of a team all season, but they appear to finally be playing good football every week.

Anyone notice anything? Those are probably the four most important non-Chargers game for Chargers fans this week, and we're rooting for all home teams. I feel good about that.

Panthers at Patriots - This time we're rooting against the Patriots (what else is new?). Stories swirling out of New England this week lead me to believe that this locker room will either explode, or everyone will suddenly get on the same page and become a winning football team. Even though Matt Moore is playing QB for the Panthers, an outright chemistry explosion for the Patriots leaves any and all possibilities on the table. I don't recommend watching this one, but definitely keep an eye on the score.
Lions at Ravens - Chargers fans should be rooting for the Lions. Yikes. I think Dante Culpepper is going for this one instead of Matthew Stafford, which is good news for the Lions and Calvin Johnson. I don't expect this to be a blowout by any means, but the Ravens basically need to win out to make the playoffs so they'll be playing with a monstrous chip on their shoulder.

4pm EST Game to Watch

Chargers at Cowboys - If you needed me to tell you this, you've found your way to the wrong blog. There's no need to watch them, but I'll be rooting for wins by the Raiders (against the Redskins) and the Rams (against the Titans) just as a way to see the Chargers future opponents get a little bit weaker.

Chargers Week 14 Injury Report

John (obviousman) — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 20:54:07 -0000

Since I think it's a little too wide for the home page, the entire injury report for both the Chargers and Cowboys is after the jump. I'll warn you though, another defensive lineman is down for the Bolts.

There is good news though. A certain defensive player that's a huge key to the Chargers defense is listed as "Doubtful" when it was thought that he'd be listed as "Out". Who could it be?

Also, since it's probably gotten pushed off the first page again, don't forget to check out this week's Game Preview post.






Chargers vs. Cowboys
Friday, Dec. 11, 2009

Chargers

Player	Injury	Wednesday Participation	Thursday Participation	Friday Participation	Friday Status
Alfonso Boone, DE	Knee	Did Not Participate	Did Not Participate	Did Not Participate	Out
Nick Hardwick, C	Ankle	Did Not Participate	Did Not Participate	Did Not Participate	Out
Eric Weddle, S	Knee	Did Not Participate	Did Not Participate	Did Not Participate	Doubtful
Shawne Merriman, OLB	Foot	Limited Participation	Full Participation	Full Participation	Questionable
Shaun Phillips, OLB	Ankle	Did Not Participate	Did Not Participate	Full Participation	Probable
Luis Castillo, DE	Calf	Full Participation	Full Participation	Full Participation	Probable
Quentin Jammer, CB	Toe	Full Participation	Full Participation	Full Participation	Probable
Travis Johnson, DE	Groin	Did Not Participate	Full Participation	Full Participation	Probable
Marcus McNeill, T	Ankle	Full Participation	Full Participation	Full Participation	Probable
Legedu Naanee, WR	Foot	Did Not Participate	Full Participation	Full Participation	Probable
Mike Scifres, P	Groin	Full Participation	Full Participation	Full Participation	Probable
Kris Dielman, G	Not Injury Related	Did Not Participate	Full Participation

Cowboys

Player	Injury	Wednesday Participation	* Thursday Participation	Friday Participation	Friday Status
Martellus Bennett, TE	Concussion	Did Not Participate	Did Not Participate	Did Not Participate	Out
Marc Colombo, T	Ankle	Did Not Participate	Did Not Participate	Did Not Participate	Out
Ken Hamlin, S	Ankle	Did Not Participate	Did Not Participate	Did Not Participate	Out
Deon Anderson, RB	Knee	Did Not Participate	Full Participation	Full Participation	Probable
Terence Newman, CB	Knee	Full Participation	Full Participation	Full Participation	Probable
Gerald Sensabaugh, S	Thumb	Full Participation	Full Participation	Full Participation	Probable
DeMarcus Ware, LB	Wrist	Full Participation	Full Participation	Full Participation	Probable
Jason Witten, TE	Foot	Full Participation	Full Participation	Full Participation	Probable


STATUS DEFINITIONS:
Out - definitely will not play
Doubtful - at least 75% chance will not play
Questionable - 50-50 chance will not play
Probable - virtual certainty player will be available for normal duty