SB Nation User Blog: John Fischer

New Jersey Devils Acquire Tim Sestito, Will Not Announce a Coach Soon

John Fischer — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 02:43:22 -0000

As tweeted by Mirtle and confirmed by Gulitti, the Devils have made a trade. They have sent a conditional draft pick to the Edmonton Oilers in exchange for the Tim Sestito.

Sestito's rise in professional is a nice story. According to this profile at Hockey's Future, he went through the OHL undrafted, but he was invited to the Oilers training camp and did well enough to make it to the main training camp. He was then signed to Greenville of the ECHL, worked his way up to Springfield of the AHL and even got a game with the Oilers last season. An example of what hard work and tenaciousness can do for a player in pro hockey.

Per his stats via NHL.com, well, let's just say he's never been an offensive force in professional hockey. Penalty minutes? Yes. Points? Not so many. The talent analysis at HF is in line with this, so I expect this to really be a depth move for Lowell. After all, with Rod Pelley penciled in to be in New Jersey next season among other potential forwards; Lowell will need forwards, especially centers. Hopefully, he fits in well and helps them out as the Devils' minor league teams haven't been all that competitive for years now. As far as the conditional pick goes, I can't imagine it being too high of a pick unless Sestito becomes a serious player. And in that case, I really wouldn't care! I'm fine with the trade, minor as it may be.

In the meanwhile, Gulitti forwards this blurb about the coaching situation. That is, it will still be vacant in the forseeable future.

Another thing that won't happen tomorrow or this weekend -- according to Lamorielllo -- is a head coaching announcement. So, it appears that the Devils will begin their development camp on Monday without a head coach in place.

In the grand scheme of things it's not that big of a deal. Brent Sutter did not go on the ice for last year's development camp, but did watch a couple of days from the stands.

It would be nice if the new head coach were there to see the young players. Still, I don't have a list yet of the players that will attend and it's possible that guys such as Matt Corrente, Tyler Eckford, Matt Halischuk, Rod Pelley, Nicklas Bergfors, who all played in Lowell last season, won't be there.

OK, I get what Gulitti's saying and he is right. It is a long summer. The prospects will most likely not be coached directly by the new coach unless they do well in preseason anyway. Scouts and management (most likely Lou) will be looking at them, I'm sure. Still, even I'm beginning to wonder what the deal is here. Also, I'd be pretty shocked if it eventually was Jacques Lemaire, who hasn't been quiet about being available. As more time passes, the more I think Lou is looking at someone else entirely. No idea who though, I'm really thinking out loud here.

By the way, I will not comment about Sergei Zubov. I will, however, say that I have updated the Claude Lemieux post with links to videos of some great playoff goals that he's scored for New Jersey. I know I should have done that when I was writing it and it wasn't until I was thinking about it earlier today (yeah, I think about ILWT away from it, I know) that I realized that. And while you're here, I would also recommend checking out this analysis I did where I concluded the Devils have been the second best team in the NHL since 1993-94. Not just because it went up during the holiday weekend or because it has charts and records of every other team since 1993-94; but because Devils fans need to recognize that our favorite team has been doing more than just pretty well for quite a long time.

What to Expect from Ilkka Pikkarainen - A HIFK Fan Perspective

John Fischer — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 21:56:53 -0000

When the Devils signed Ilkka Pikkarainen, I had two thoughts in my mind: He was still in the system? and How does he play hockey? My limited knowledge based on hearsay of Pikkarainen was that he was a gritty, agitating winger down in Albany. In the Devils' announcement of the signing, Lou highlighted his "size, strength, and toughness," which confirms part of what I originally thought of the player. As far as his role on the team is concerned, Lou has stated via Gulitti that Pikkarainen was signed to play in New Jersey. This led me to think that you have to pencil his name in the New Jersey Devils line up along with Rod Pelley.

Anyway, other than Gulitti and Chere both reporting that Pikkarainen signed a 1 year contract for the league minimum ($500,000), there isn't much else out there regarding what to expect from the right winger. So being nothing more than a Devils fan, I sought out to find someone who supported HIFK Helsinki. Someone who has seen him play over the last 3 years he spent in the SM-Liiga. I was able to get into contact with Patrik Sjögren, the Operations Manager of the HIFK Fan Club, a supporter's group of HIFK Helsinki. He offered a detailed summary of the player's time in Finland, from his perspective as a supporter of HIFK. Patrik's views are a good overview potential benefits - and problems - Pikkarainen could bring to the Devils.

Patrik began his message noting how much he has changed since going to North America to play hockey the first time. Remember, Pikkarainen was drafted from HIFK, played one more season there before coming over for 3 seasons in the AHL with Albany. He's not unfamiliar with how the game is played here. As one may expect, Patrik did recognize how Pikkarainen improved in those three years with Albany.

First, I was quite disappointed that "Piku" had to return back after the first time. Games in Albany however refined all his skills, seeing him back here he had more strength and aggression, skated faster and had the never-ending hunger for scoring goals.

I think Pikkarainen held his level in all categories, and took a step up as an annoying agitator. After some success with scoring, he became more confident with his shots and kept on trying to score with every opportunity. All the goals were a result of solid finishing, he wanted to get a hard shot out of every attack. This is the biggest approvement he gained with River Rats, and it has stayed as his sharpest strength. Yet he’s also a very physical player, propably top-2 with hits as well. IFK as a team praises the physical canadian-style play (since Carl Brewer), body-checks get the same applause as common goals, and Ilkka got a nice share both ways -throwing the big hits and scoring. Will be missed as a profile-player, being just the type IFK is considered to be.

While Pikkarainen wasn't anything close to a big scorer in his career, his numbers according to Hockey DB show that he has improved his production since his three years in Albany. It's very good that Patrik pointed out his shooting. Should Pikkarainen get a spot on the fourth line, he's only going to see about 8-10 minutes a game. As a result, he's not necessarily going to have a lot of opportunities on offense. That he shoots hard and has the desire to do so will be useful for the few shooting opportunities he would get in a game. I'm not saying he's going to be a goal scoring machine, but he may be able keep the opposing defense and goaltender honest.

As expected, though, Pikkarainen is a physical agitator. Per Patrik's comments here, this endeared him to the HIFK fans and in conjunction what Lou pointed out about him when he was signed, I would expect him to continue playing that style. It could very well be what keeps him in New Jersey. I can already imagine the Devils throwing out a mean line of Leblond, a center to be named later, and Pikkarainen to really rough up the opposition. Not every night, but I can see the benefit against a few teams here and there.

However, with being physical and an agitator, it comes with a price. Patrik's description of Pikkarainen's time in HIFK becomes more sobering and a lot less complementary at this point:

During the last two years he developed a weakness with his mental discipline. Every now and then he had the off-nights when Pikkarainen didn’t want to give his best. The plays were sloppy, he didn’t concentrate to make effective decisions. These nights we saw Evil-Ilkka, who let out his temper with stupid penalties harming the team. He had no respect for other players, and other players, referees and public didn’t have the respect for him either. There were couple incidents as spearing or cheap-shots, and lots of misconduct penaltys – going the both ways. Pikkarainen got the same treatment he had delivered, and quite usually these were one sided bursts of violence. Eventually this happened so often that Ilkka lost his status as a fan favourite, since too many times Ilkka got ejected off the game by himself, when the team needed to come back from behind. Some times the opponents closed the game, while Ilkka was serving his major penalty. This is something very unnecessary, as all of the penalties were pure personal frustration apart from the game. In the Finnish SM-League we have cumulative system for misconduct penalties, and Pikkarainen climbed the latter with steady pace. Finally he was suspended for the last three games, giving absolutely nothing at the moment of truth when IFK was eliminated from play-off relegation. This side of his alter ego won’t be missed by anyone.

Oh dear. This is exactly what I didn't want to read! And the fans even have a name for this "alter ego!" Aaaah!

The key to being an effective agitator, I would think, is to keep as calm as possible when the opposition reacts and clearly, Pikkarainen couldn't do that! The player did rack up the minutes with HIFK with 389 minutes in 144 games and according to Patrik, he took far too many at exactly the wrong time. If you hated Bobby Holik taking dumb calls that hurt the team last season, then this certainly is troubling to read! Pikkarainen has a reputation for hurting his team's cause! And throw on that little comment about "on some nights he didn't want to give his best" and you're already groaning/rolling your eyes/head-palming.

That all said, this all should not doom Pikkarainen - just concerns. While he's probably not going to learn any new tricks at age 28, he can certainly stand to learn and understand the concept discipline. You're not going to last long in New Jersey without it and for his own career's sake, I hope Pikkarainen understands that. "Evil-Ilkka" will be kept in the press box or in Lowell or on a plane back to Finland should he arrive while representing the New Jersey Devils.

So what to expect? Well, from what I read, it's a real mixed bag here. Physical/agitating play, a hard shot, and damaging on-ice discipline issues really seem to be the traits that stick out from what Patrik has seen in 3 years of the player. Hopefully, only those first two traits stick out in preseason as he competes for a spot. Even then, I would still pencil him in only for a fourth line position. But I'm a little less enthused about him, to say the least! Still, let's see what he does in preseason before bemoaning the signing.

Again, big thanks to Patrik Sjögren, the Operations Manager of the HIFK Fan Club for these comments. Check out the club if you're planning to visit Helsinki and see a hockey game, or if you need a SM-Liiga team to support.

What do you all think of Pikkarainen now that you've read Patrik's comments? Does it change your opinion of the player? Do you think he can be of use to New Jersey knowing what Patrik has seen?

A Legendary Pest, A Devils Legend: Claude Lemieux Retires

John Fischer — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 00:29:21 -0000

More photos » by Jonathan J. Cooper - AP

Thank you, Mr. Claude Lemieux (AP Photo/Jonathan J. Cooper)

Browse more photos »

With today's announcement of Claude Lemieux's retirement - his second, but first "official" announcement of retirement - it would be best to give a tribute of what he has done for the Devils and how he stands as a legend. Rich Chere sat in a conference call of the annoucement and was able to get numerous quotes from the now-former agitator. It's a great article and I suggest you go read it. What follows is my attempt at a summary and a tribute to the former Devil agitator.

His nickname was "Pepe." As in Pepe LePew, most likely. Not because he was a French Canadian. Not because he had B.O. (well, I can't verify that, but I'll assume he smelled fine). But because he was a like a skunk. Whenever a skunk is around, you can usually tell by their stench and it just makes people irritated and want to go away. The big difference is that on the ice, Lemieux made a point of it to follow you around. It didn't matter if you were a tough guy or the top scorer on your team, Claude's role was to knock you off your game and take the puck forward.

Claude Lemieux is the perfect example of someone you'd hate on opposing teams, but would absolutely love if he was on your favorite team. This sentiment gets thrown around too easily, I think. Anecdotally, I've heard it given to halfwitted chumps (e.g. Sean Avery) or meat-head goons (e.g. Tie Domi). No. Claude was very different from a fourth line goon or a drawer of penalties or a simple pain in the butt. He had slick offensive skills to go with that snarl. While he took many penalty minutes, he was smart when shadowing the other team's best stars. He was a three-way threat, beating you going forward, going back on defense, and with the on-ice headgames that agitators love to play.

Consider his career numbers. Claude Lemieux ends a NHL career with 1,215 games played, 379 goals scored, 407 assists, and 1,777 penalty minutes. Look at his season-by-season numbers at Hockey DB and you'll learn that he's had 9 20+ goal season - 3 each with Montreal, New Jersey, and Colorado. However, he will not be remembered as a solid scorer from the second line; he will be remembered as a playoff hero. The word "clutch" is also thrown around a lot in the world of sports, but Claude is a fantastic example of clutch. In this tribute to Lemieux by Joe Pelletier at Greatest Hockey Legends, he has this quote from Claude about the playoffs:

"I love playoffs. You know what its like when teams play back-to-back games in the regular season, there's usually a lot of intensity and bad feelings grow. In the playoffs it is even more intense," said Lemieux. "The physical side of the game really became more important and I think that is where I have been able to give my team an edge."

Indeed he was intense (among other adjectives!), and it became apparent in his very first NHL playoff appearance.

Let me point out in his third call up to the Montreal Canadiens in 1986, after a productive time with Sherbrooke their AHL team, he blew up in the playoffs with 10 goals and 6 assists. As a rookie. For Montreal en route to their 22nd Stanley Cup and his first. As Lemieux developed as a player, the scoring came just as much in the regular season and even if his team didn't go deep in the playoffs, it wasn't because Claude wasn't scoring!

He was acquired by New Jersey before the 1990-91 season, with the Devils trading Sylvain Turgeon for the pest. It turned out to be an excellent transaction by Lou Lamoriello, that's for sure. As a Devil, his best seasons included 1991-92 where he potted 41 goals and his career high in points the next season with 30 goals and 51 assists. But that is not why he is a legend in the eyes of Devils - again, it was Claude Lemieux raising his game in the postseason.

First, there was the 1994 playoffs where Lemieux topped his 16 points from 1986 with a 7 goal and 11 assist result in 20 games. While that playoff ended in a heartbreaking fashion and Lemieux then suffered one of his worst seasons, he rose up like a phoenix and torched the opposition in 1995. 13 goals, 3 assists, at least four frustrated-as-hell opposing forwards (if I recall correctly, Cam Neely, Jaromir Jagr, John LeClair, and...Keith Primeau?), the adoration of Devils fans everywhere for contributing to the franchise's first Stanley Cup, the respect of his peers by being named Playoff MVP with the Conn Smythe Trophy, and Claude's second Stanley Cup. Lemieux described his 1995 playoff effort as a highlight of his career per Chere:

"It was very special and I was very emotional," Lemieux recalled of the trophy awarded to the Most Valuable Player in the playoffs. "I see pictures or watch the tapes. Once in a while the kids will pull it up on YouTube and they'll ask,' Dad, why are you crying?'

"It was emotional because I had gone through probably one of the worst regular seasons of all-time for myself and bounced back from an all-time low to an all-time high. And I had gone through personal tough times away from the rink as well, going through a divorce. I think the combination of it all just made it very emotional for me to win that trophy."

The Conn Smythe trophy remains very special to Lemieux.

"It's one that is selected by the media and, over the years, I'd often be highly criticized by the media for my style of play. More times than not with reason probably for some of the goofy things I did or said," he said.

"But it meant a lot to me that the media would select me and consider me to be the winner of that very special trophy. Obviously I'm very proud of having the opportunity to play on such great teams and then winning. I have a picture with the Conn Smythe Trophy and Stanley Cup together sitting in the locker room. It doesn't get much better than that."

It really doesn't.

Unfortunately, a nasty contract dispute saw Lemieux traded to Colorado literally hours after an arbitration hearing per this article in the NY Daily News. In Colorado, Claude hit the early 30s of his career yet became just as important to the Avalanche (and their fans!) as he was in New Jersey. While his regular season numbers started to dip after a great 1995-96 season, Claude's game didn't change and that included the playoffs. The numbers at Hockey DB almost tell the whole story! In 1996, he put in a solid 7 goal and 5 assist result en route to his third Stanley Cup and Colorado's first. In 1997, while the Avalanche didn't go all the way, Lemieux must have played out of his mind with a 13 goals and 10 assists - his best totals in a single playoff year. In 1998, while the Avalanche were bounced out of the first round, Lemieux put up 6 points in 7 games. His last playoffs with the Avalanche may have only lasted 19 games, but he still put up 14 points in the process. All while angering opponents and the fans of opponents along the way. All Claude's way: nasty, aggressive, and effective.

A more complete account of Claude's time in Colorado can be had here at Mile High Hockey, where Joe ranked him as the 11th best Avalanche player of all time. Like I said, he was an important player for Colorado.

As noted in the same NY Daily News article, Claude Lemieux returned to New Jersey in the early part of the 1999-2000 season. At this point, Claude was 35 and played in a more checking role as he did in Colorado. Yet, as always he became a contributor on the ice in some way or form (sometimes in a quasi-legal way). Again, this included the playoffs where he chipped in 4 goals, 6 assists, and loads of heart and fire. While he wasn't a key factor as he was in 1995, he did play a role in securing New Jersey's second Stanley Cup and Lemieux's fourth.

From then on, the sun in Lemieux's career was setting. After a few seasons with Phoenix, two full ones with the Coyotes and one where he split time with Phoenix and Dallas, his NHL career seemed to be at an end. He played abroad for a little bit, but it was the end of his career.

Or so we thought, as Claude attempted a comeback at the ripe old age of 44. James Mirtle summed up his path of his comeback to the NHL in response to the retirement announcement. Lemieux worked out in Arizona, went as far as to China, and eventually got interest by the Sharks organization and was signed in this past season. He had a few games with Worcester, their AHL affiliate, and put up an assist in 18 games with San Jose. He only had one playoff game appearance, but unfortunately, he did not put up a point as it would have been a perfect point at what is now the end of his career.

In response to the announcement, Rich Chere comes right out and says that his #22 should be retired by the Devils for what he did in his 6 seasons with New Jersey:

Two of his four Stanley Cup championships came with the Devils. He may not have been Scott Stevens or Martin Brodeur, but he taught the Devils to win and should have his No, 22 retired by Lou Lamoriello and the team.

To be frank, I disagree. I feel a number should only be retired if the player has spent significant time with the organization as well as significantly contributing to their success while his talents are one-of-a-kind. Scott Stevens and Ken Daneyko fits While he was massively important in 1994 and 1995, as well as useful in 2000 - as well as a legendary NHL pest in the late 80s and throughout the 90s - we are only talking about 6 seasons in New Jersey A very good player for the Devils? Yes. Should he be honored in some way? Yes. But a number retirement? No.

That shouldn't take away from the fact that he is, yes, a legend in the eyes of many Devils fans. If you're new to the team, all you need to know is that "Pepe" knew what it took to succeed on the ice, knew how to upset the opponent enough to take advantage (He's the greatest pest I've ever seen play), and almost literally raised his performance in the postseason. And without him, the Devils don't win their first Stanley Cup in 1995 and maybe they also don't win their second in 2000.

UPDATE: Should have done this when I wrote this. Anyway, if you're new to the team or not, these videos are perfect examples of what made Lemieux great in New Jersey. Lemieux finishing a breakaway to help finish the Flyers in Game 6 of the 1995 Eastern Conference Finals. Lemieux flying down the ice to put home a John MacLean rebound with the eventual game winner in Game 1 against Detroit. Lemieux pouring on the misery on Detroit in Game 3 of the 1995 Stanley Cup Finals by 5-holing Mike Vernon. Lemieux's game winning goal against Buffalo in Game 7 in an epicly-long the first round of 1994. Lemieux holding the puck in, playing it forward, and going into the slot uncovered to put home a Bobby Holik rebound in Game 6 against Philly in the Eastern Conference Finals in 2000.

And if you must watch only one, make it this one: His legendary late goal in Philly in Game 5 of the 1995 Eastern Conference Finals; a slapshot that tore past Ron Hextall and disappointed an entire arena.

Claude Lemieux played 423 regular season games as a New Jersey Devil, took 627 penalty minutes, scored 142 goals and had 155 assists for a total of 297 points. In the post season, he played 82 post season games, took 171 penalty minutes, scored 34 goals and had 23 assists for 57 points, won one Conn Smythe Trophy, and two Stanley Cups in New Jersey. For all of this, I can only say:

Thank you, Claude Lemieux, and best wishes in the future.

From Lowell and Abroad, Who Wants to be a New Jersey Devil?

John Fischer — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 02:58:11 -0000

OK, so it's not an attractive title, but let's break this down. From previous comments and given the current roster, there will be many spots open at forward - again, at forward - for Devils' prospects to strive for in the coming 2009-10 season. In fact, given Lou's comments just after free agency began - as reported by Chere - expect those most of those spots to remain open by preseason. He wants players pushing each other for spots and the salary cap is going to fall next season, so it's best to give the kids a chance now.

So let's briefly go over who has the best chances and who may be a long shot. After all, prospect camp is next week. Note #1: No one prospect is a lock to make the Devils, everyone's got to earn it; but I think it's fair to think that some players are in a better spot than others. Of course, if no one impresses, look to Lou making a deal later on. Note #2: I'm not calling out Pierre-Luc Latourneau-Leblond as a prospect here, but he's got to earn his spot as well.

PENCIL THEM IN, THEY ARE IN LOU'S FAVOR

Rod Pelley, C, 24 - Pelley was actually specifically mentioned by Lou as someone he needs to make room for, as reported by Chere:

"It will be status quo to see where our budget is," Lamoriello revealed. "We have to make room for Rod Pelley and a couple of others. And we have to get more ice time for David Clarkson."

When Lou is calling you out specifically, you're definitely favored! Pelley also has the additional advantage of being a center - a position of need on the New Jersey Roster - and having more NHL experience than any of the other prospects, with 67 games. It's worth mentioning that 58 of those games came in 2007-08 where he averaged 9:47 a game. He didn't get a look last season, but he's definitely known within the organization.

Possible role? Checking line center and again, Lou was clear about this on July 1st, as reported by Chere:

"In John's case a change might be good," Lamoriello suggested. "We really have to get a little younger in certain areas. Rod Pelley is ready to take John's role. We had to look at the dollars to sign John."

That's a pretty big role! And if Lou is confident in him, than all Pelley has to do is to keep up his effort.

Ilkka Pikkarainen, RW, 28 - When it became known that Lou was signing a player from Europe, people expected a surprise. Well, when former prospect and HIFK Helsinki forward Pikkarainen was announced, it definitely surprised people when announced! In any case, he's favored because of Lou's initial response to what his role will be, as reported by Gulitti:

"He was signed for here," Lamoriello said.

Lamoriello said that the Pikkarainen, a 6-foot-2, 220-pound right wing, would "help" offset some of the free agent departures of Wednesday, but he wasn't necessarily signed to replace any of the individual players that left -- John Madden, Brian Gionta and Mike Rupp (as well as goaltender Scott Clemmensen).

"He's big and strong and he helps our size factor," Lamoriello said.

Where Pikkarainen fits will be up to the incoming head coach, but Lamoriello said he probably wouldn't be on the first two lines.

"I think he's going to play on the third or fourth line, he said.

There is plenty of room on the bottom two lines, and should no other right wing make it in New Jersey, a right side of Langenbrunner, Rolston, Clarkson, and Pikkarainen should be sufficient. Since Lou plainly stated he was signed for New Jersey, Pikkarainen only has to fit in, really. If he doesn't, well, let's just say I get a Fedor Fedorov feeling. But I would expect him, right now, to make the team.

Let's continue on for other possibilities that don't necessarily have the benefit of Lou talking them up specifically.

TALENTED, BUT ON A BUBBLE OF SORTS

Nicklas Bergfors, RW, 22 - The former first round draft pick is known for being a skilled forward. A potential scoring winger. According to Jared Ramsden's review of the Devils AHL prospects at Hockey's Future, Bergfors' offensive skill and ability to bounce back from an injury-shortened 2007-08 season was lauded despite the not necessarily impressive numbers. Ramsden thinks Bergfors is close to making the NHL and this summer really is his best shot yet.

What I think Bergfors needs to show is that he not only has this skill, but that he can command it at the NHL level. While some argue he would be best suited on the top two lines, there's not a lot of space there. Brian Rolston is already on the team as a natural replacement for Brian Gionta at right wing. Some would like to see Rolston move to center and have Bergfors (or someone else) in that right wing position, but I'm loathe to move a winger to center when there's already a hybrid player who at least knows what he's doing in that role in Dainius Zubrus.

If Bergfors wants a spot on those top two lines, then he needs to work his tail off to earn that right. In my view, the first step for him is just to become a regular New Jersey Devil first. Then he can move up accordingly. I think it'll happen.

PROBABLY NOT YET, BUT DON'T BE SURPRISED IF THEY CRACK THE LINEUP.

Alexander Vasyunov, LW, 21 - After spending numerous years with Yaroslavl Lokomotiv, Vasyunov finally came to the AHL last season and showed off some that offensive potential he was touted as having when drafted. Ramsden's report is as follows:

Vasyunov put on his display of elite offensive skill and speed on a regular basis and he scored some spectacular, breathtaking goals in his first year as pro. New Jersey had been trying for sometime to get his name on a contract and get him to North America with his development sagging in his native Russia, and were finally able to do so, and it looks like they may have found a gem. Players of Vasyunov's ilk don't grow on trees and the Devils have to be excited at what he showed in his first year as a pro, and what he might have in store for 2009-10. He'll likely still need another full season of development in the minors, maybe two, but the blossoming sniper is giving the Devils something to be excited about in the near future.

While Ramsden may ultimately be right, I would not discount the Russian winger immediately. If he can show off that speed and offensive skill, then he could be considered an excellent option for limited minutes should the new coach want that instead of defense. Maybe not as a regular, but in spot duty. Another season in Lowell wouldn't be a bad thing, but I could see him as a long shot of getting some games with New Jersey next season.

Matt Halischuk, RW, 21 - Halischuk did get a game in with the Devils last season and looked all right. Other than that, he spent a shortened season in Lowell. Unfortunately, it was shortened due to a MCL tear. The former Canadian WJC checker is still projected primarily as a defensive player. Here's what Ramsden thinks of the winger:

Halischuk is the epitome of what the Devils crave in their forwards, and he has the added bonus of possessing those intangible qualities that you just can't teach: a tireless work ethic and boundless energy. He has above average hockey sense at both ends of the rink and is a top-notch skater who also has the skills to be an elite penalty killer in time. He has moved very quickly through the system and it would not be surprising to see him in New Jersey to start next season.

Not at all bad traits to have. Yet, it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to see how he does with a full, healthy AHL season. What is in Halischuk's favor is that he is a defensive winger and the Devils really don't have too many of those. He could be a good option to have should the Devils not need "toughness" on the fourth line. What isn't in his favor is the sheer number of wingers on both sides - both on the right side as mentioned with Pikkarainen, and on the left with Parise, Elias, Pandolfo, and Leblond.

Anyway, I think Halischuk is a long shot because he basically has to outplay other wingers to get to this spot, and that's going to be more difficult than ususal as they know this is the year to make their mark.

LONG SHOTS

Nick Palmieri, LW, 20 - Palmieri came right out of Belleville to play a few games in Lowell last season. He's projected to be a power forward and while his recent junior season wasn't massive, he definitely sparkled in the OHL playoffs with 14 goals in 17 games. The potential power forward got a good long look at training camp last season and he'll probably get one again. Should Palmieri have an excellent camp, he could sway a few minds among the coaching staff. Especially if he scores goals like he did in the OHL playoffs.

Patrice Cormier, C, 19 - Cormier had an excellent season last season both with the Rimouski Oceanic and for Canada at the 2009 WJCs. So much so that Hockey's Future's QMJHL staff named him the best prospect in the league! Moreover, he's a center, an area of need for New Jersey. I think he would benefit with some time in the AHL before jumping right in, but it's not unheard of for a 19 year old center prospect jumping right to New Jersey.

Mattias Tedenby, LW, 19 - Tedenby's gotten stronger and more experienced in the SEL in this past season. He had a few more games with the senior HV71 team, got further time with Sweden's junior teams, and had a successful loan to Oskarshamn. I don't know what his contract status is with HV71, so he may not be in New Jersey for a little while longer. However, his skating abilities combined with his offensive instincts and those hands of his could concievibly force the Devils to consider him in New Jersey. Highly doubtful, I think, but not totally impossible (contract aside).

Needless to say, a lot of players are going to be looked at closely at both the prospect camp next week and in preseason in September. Best of luck to all involved as the 2009-2010 could be the season for these potential talents to finally make their mark at the Rock.

Feel free to comment on this, as I plan to revisit this topic from time to time in the summer. Let me know if I'm on the mark, off the mark, missed a player, or anything else relevant to this. (Also: Please don't comment about how Lou hasn't signed anybody because this isn't the place for that.)

New SBN Features: Easy Retweeting & Mobile Commenting

John Fischer — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 23:22:53 -0000

New SBN Features: Easy Retweeting & Mobile Commenting

File this under site/network news. SB Nation is proud to present to you, the user, the ability to retweet stories with a touch of the button as well as the ability to comment through a mobile device.

I've noticed some of you have already done this here at ILWT. My message for you: keep it up & thanks.

A Common Thread with Past Devils Arbitration Results

John Fischer — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 23:41:04 -0000

As Chere reported yesterday, Travis Zajac has elected to file for salary arbitration for next season. I noted the possibilities of what could happen and it's been a point of debate and concern both here and elsewhere, like the comments on Gulitti's post. (Aside: Gulitti actually responds in comments in his posts, so they are worth checking out.) Personally, while I'm not saying this is the end of Zajac as a long-term Devil, there's definite reason to be doubtful. However, I'm the one stressing perspective and such on ILWT, so I figure I should challenge my doubts. I decided to search for past arbitration hearings the Devils had, see what the results were, and find out whether there's anything to be worried about.

From what I found, the Devils didn't have too many arbitration hearings but they all involved players that you know and they all have something in common that, unfortunately, justifies my concern.

Let's start with a former infamous Devil and a current Devil: Claude Lemieux and Brian Rolston. You know the former from his absolutely ridiculous 1995 Playoff Run (13 goals, 4 very frustrated forwards) and as a POAT (Pest of All Time, up there with Esa Tikkanen). You know the latter as Brian Rolston - the man who's going to be on the second line in 2009-10, but who knows where right now. Anyway, in 1999, Rolston filed for arbitration as a RFA with the Devils. According to the NY Times, Rolston won the hearing:

Forward Brian Rolston was awarded a new two-year, $2.77 million contract after an arbitration hearing yesterday. Rolston, who made $750,000 last season, was seeking a one-year pact worth $1.7 million while the Devils offered $2.08 million over two seasons. His new pact will pay him $1.3 million in 1999-2000 and $1.47 million in 2000-2001.

HOWEVER! Astute Devils fans are already talking to their computer screens, "But John! Rolston wasn't on that 2000 team that won the Stanley Cup!" And you're right. He and his arbitrator-awarded contract was traded in a deal with Colorado, bringing back the legendary agitator to the Swamp. Ralph Vachianno of the NY Daily News had the whole story back in November 1999. I don't bring this up to get all nostalgic about another shrewd Lou move. Here's the relevant bit from the article that explains why Claude wasn't a Devil for long after 1995:

"Well," Lemieux said yesterday, "sometimes, as you get older, you realize you can never say never."

Certainly not after yesterday's shocker, when the Devils shipped forward Brian Rolston to Colorado and brought back Lemieux. And what better way to solve the franchise's postseason problems than with the return of the best postseason player they ever had?

But still, it couldn't have been an easy deal for Devils GM Lou Lamoriello to make. There were several bridges burned between the franchise and the MVP of its 1995 Stanley Cup run during a nasty contract dispute that summer. It began when Lemieux declared for free agency, claiming the contract he agreed to hadn't been faxed by the Devils to the league as required before July 1.

The dispute went to arbitration and the Devils won, but Lemieux was traded to Colorado within hours in a three-team deal. Yesterday, Lamoriello said the dispute was behind both of them and "There is certainly nothing hanging or nothing we feel uncomfortable with."

So far we have Lemieux that went to arbitration, lost, and was traded shortly thereafter. Rolston went to arbitration, won, and got traded later that season.

The common thread though isn't that Devils that go through arbitration aren't Devils for long though. This brings us to 2001 - the Bobby Holik arbitration hearing. Jason Diamos of the NY Times had a complete article about the aftermath of that hearing back in August 2001. On the surface, Holik didn't get what he wanted. And Holik wasn't particularly shy about his feelings on arbitration in general.

''The number is just a number,'' Holik said. ''But the arbitration process itself has changed the way I look at a lot of things. I've learned how they look at me. Every player should go through it and find out that this is a business and nothing else.''

When asked if he felt like a piece of property, Holik said: ''Yes, of course. They make you look like you're not worth as much as you think.'' And while Holik said he harbored no animosity toward the Devils and their president and general manager, Lou Lamoriello, he will most likely be playing elsewhere after this season.

''Some people would take it personally,'' Holik said. ''I don't take it personally. They treat it as a business, so I'll treat it as a business. They're looking for the best possible labor at the lowest possible cost, and I want to maximize my earning potential. The way I'll do it is by becoming an unrestricted free agent.''

If you ever wanted proof at how damaging arbitration is to a player-organization relationship, then Holik's experience is a good place to go. Incidentally, despite his own blunt (as usual) admission that he felt like he was going to be traded, as reported by Darren Everson of the NY Daily News, Holik was not traded. However, Holik kept true to his word, sought out deals on the open market, and ultimately decided upon that infamous $9.5 million/year deal with the New York Rangers.

However, the next one to go through the arbitration ringer wasn't Gomez, but Scott Niedermayer in the summer of 2004. Niedermayer not only demanded significant money for his talents - and few could argue that - but what he was awarded tied a record high in arbitration hearings with the NHL. Dave Caldwell has the short briefing at the NY Times back in August 2004 and amazingly, it appears that the Devils got the benefit by being closer to the lower end of the value offered:

Niedermayer, who made $4 million last season and was voted the Norris Trophy winner for the first time as the N.H.L.'s top defenseman, becomes the Devils' highest-paid player. Defenseman Scott Stevens will make $6.92 million, and goaltender Martin Brodeur $6.89 million.

Still, the arbitrator's award was closer to the $6 million that the Devils had offered than to the $9 million Niedermayer sought.

Yet, the Devils, Neidermayer, or the NHL didn't have a next season. So Neidermayer became an unrestricted free agent, thought about his decision for quite a while, and ultimately headed west to Anaheim.

Lastly, we come to Scott Gomez. After a monster 2005-06, Gomez felt it was time to get paid and felt he was worth more than the Devils were offering. The Devils, already up against cap constraints at the time, did not get any good news from this hearing. As Mike Kerwick reported, via USA Today, Gomez was awarded $5 million and the cap only became more of a concern:

In a decision that might price Scott Gomez off New Jersey's roster, an arbitrator awarded the restricted free agent forward $5 million for the upcoming season Tuesday night.

Gomez and his agent/father Carlos Gomez asked for $6.5 million, but the $5 million award more than doubles his 2005-06 salary of $2.2 million.

Devils general manager Lou Lamoriello had the option to decline the award, allowing Gomez to become an unrestricted free agent, but he said Tuesday he is accepting the arbitrator's decision.

"We're going to accept the award," Lamoriello said. "We're not going to walk (away)."

The challenge for Lamoriello now is trying to fit Gomez's salary under the NHL's $44 million payroll. Lamoriello would not say whether the $5 million price tag would force him to trade Gomez before the start of the regular season. Lamoriello traded forward Jeff Friesen before the start of the 2005-06 season in order to get under the league's then-$39 million cap.

...

So does Lamoriello have room for Gomez?

"I'm not going to get into any of that," Lamoriello said. "The only thing I mentioned, on day one, we have to be at a certain number and we will be there on day one."

After an entire season of looking for any kind of relief and the Devils resorting to playing with a shortened roster on nights where too many players were injured, I believe Lou learned the importance of cap space that season (to say the least). Gomez, on the other hand, did what Holik did 4 years earlier. He became an unrestricted free agent, fielded offers from multiple teams, and settled on the giant pile of money offered by the NY Rangers.

Let me sum it up all for you:

Claude Lemieux filed for arbitration, "lost," and was immediately traded to another team.

Brian Rolston filed for arbitration, "won," and was traded early in the 1999-2000 season.

Bobby Holik filed for arbitration, "lost," and left the Devils when he became a free agent.

Scott Niedermayer filed for arbitration, "lost," and while he didn't play the next season, also left the Devils when he became a free agent.

Scott Gomez filed for arbitration, "won," and left the Devils when he became a free agent.

The common thread is that each of these players weren't Devils for very long after their hearings. Be it after their awarded deals ended or even during their deals. It didn't matter who "won" or "lost," they did not last for long in New Jersey. None of those five stuck around after their awarded deals - either by their own choice or Lou's choice.

That is why I am so concerned about Zajac filing for arbitration. This brief history has shown that those who file for arbitration are not going to be Devils for a long time. One big difference here is that Zajac is young enough such that he can't become an unrestricted free agent even after an awarded deal - he has to wait until he's 27. That said, if Zajac comes out of the hearings thinking along the lines of Holik did, then he may not want to remain in NJ.

Let us hope that history does not repeat itself in the case of Travis Zajac's arbitration hearings.

Hockey's Future 2009 Devils Draft Review

John Fischer — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 02:16:00 -0000

Hockey's Future 2009 Devils Draft Review

I found this from their Twitter - follow HockeysFuture for that. I know the focus is now on free agency and such, but this is a very good overview of who the Devils drafted.

Plus, it has actual information how Derek Rodwell and Curtis Gedig actually play hockey. I couldn't find anything on them at the time of my overview, so for that alone you should check it out.

Chere: Travis Zajac Files for Salary Arbitration - What This Could Mean for the New Jersey Devils

John Fischer — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 00:36:39 -0000

Chere has reported just under a half-hour ago that Travis Zajac has filed for salary arbitration. As is his right according to the NHL CBA. Now, I'm sure the first question some of you may ask is, "What in the world does that mean? What could happen?" Let's break it down using what little knowledge I have of arbitration and Article 12 of the NHL CBA, which covers arbitration.

The short-term and initial good news is that Travis Zajac will (almost) definitely return next season. I emphasize almost as teams have "walk-away" rights after the results of arbitration that they can invoke within a vast number of requirements. Based on past arbitration hearings with the Devils that I can recall, the player has returned next season. Moreover, I don't expect the Devils to walk away from Zajac, not with their current lack of depth at the position and with their current surplus of cap space. So expect Zajac to continue to be the center for Zach Parise. However, considering the process, this could turn out to be some serious bad news for the Devils.

The process itself is, I think, essentially more straight forward than explained in the NHL CBA. If you have some time and would like to read more into how the league operates, I highly recommend checking it out for yourself. Assuming I have this right (and if I don't, please let me know!), the player (and the NHLPA) and the team (and the NHL) makes their respective cases and an independent arbitraitor makes his or her ruling and awards a one or two year (depends on what is elected for arbitration) contract to the player. It's very much like making a legal case; and the CBA has all kinds of requirements involving what could be presented as evidence and how procedures go. According to the CBA, the player makes their argument, the team makes their argument, the player rebuts the team's argument, the team rebuts the player's argument, and then there is a ruling.

But let's get back to Zajac. From my understanding of past arbitration hearings that Bobby Holik and Scott Gomez went through, this is a cold process. In a one-on-one negotation, there may be more (for lack of a better word) acceptance of a flaw or value added to an asset. Yet, in arbitration, it all boils down to hard facts. Let's have some hard facts, something I'm sure Zajac and his people will bring up:

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2008 - Travis Zajac	82	20	42	62	33	29	5	1	2	0	185	10.8

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2008 - Brian Gionta	81	20	40	60	12	32	3	3	1	0	248	8.1

Now, Gionta just got $5 million/year from Montreal and Zajac was more productive than he was in all aspects except for shots on goal. So Zajac can ask for some serious money and he'll have a case, right?

UPDATE: Well, no. Gulitti in his own comments clarified what can and cannot be used as evidence, or in this case, a "comparable." I certainly didn't know that and, well, it's a bit of a relief - one less thing to worry about. Here's the explanation from Gulitti:

Contracts given to unrestricted free agents cannot be used as comparables in the arbitration hearing. So, for example, Gionta's contract cannot be used as a comparable and would have no impact on the arbitrator's ruling.

The only comparables are contracts signed by other restricted free agents or players who could have become restricted free agents if they had not signed.

For example, Zach Parise's average of $3.125 can be used as a comparable.

~~Well, not so fast.~~ So let's compare it to a RFA. Earlier in June, the Boston Bruins signed RFA center David Krejci to an extension worth $3.75 million/year as a cap hit; and Krejci was more productive than both players while being about the same age as Zajac and playing the same position as him:

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2008 - David Krejci	82	22	51	73	37	26	5	2	6	0	146	15.1

So Zajac and his people can use this baseline as a case for somewhere above $3 million, while Lou and his people can argue that no way should Zajac earn more than Krejci.

This is all just an example of how it could on. Personally, I think Zajac could command $3 - $3.5 million and it'd be a fair value - he shouldn't get Krejci money, but not much less than that. Then again, this summer has shown that this is a market where Gionta somehow got $5 million/year. Who knows how this could go? I cannot say for sure.

I can definitely state that the proceedings will be far more complex than this and this is what you should be worried about. Should this hearing get nasty, and Zajac and his people essentially leaves with the arbitrator ruling in favor of the Devils after spending a day hearing why he's not as worth as much as he think he is, this could spell the end of Zajac as a Devil. Once that arbitrator-awarded contract ends, Zajac will most likely want to leave ASAP (not the next season, but when he eligible for UFA status) and earn a paycheck elsewhere. Even if the arbitration seemingly works out in the players favor, like when Gomez had his salary doubled back in 2005; he still went away from the organization (to the Rangers, no less!) when he became a free agent again. The process can do a lot of damage to that player-organization relationship. And then there's the blow-off option the team has; simply "walking away" from the arbitration ruling when awarded and leaving the player as an unrestricted free agent. Again, I don't think the Devils will use that "walk away" option so I wouldn't worry about that.

The upside is that should the hearings go fairly well - even in favor of Zajac or not that nasty, then Lou could simply offer a contract extension later on in the season should Zajac and his people are receptive. Arbitration does not guarantee that the player will leave the team at the earlier possibility; it just tends to happen based on how the process goes. Holik and Gomez were well into their careers when they went to arbitration and so they could demand (and eventually command) big money. Zajac turned 24 a few months ago, so I won't go as far as to say that he would be likely to do the same unless he builds off that excellent bounce-back season he just had in 2008-09. And hey, no other team can negotiate with Zajac other than the Devils up until the hearings - so no offer sheets can be tendered. Hence, Zajac is a Devil at least in the short-term.

Still, if you think that Zajac should be a long-term Devil, setting up Parise for night after night, then you need to pay very close attention to how the arbitration hearings go later this summer (it's usually the end of July, beginning of August). That will go a long way more than anything else as to whether he wants to be a Devil. Zajac will almost definitely be in Devils red next season. Whether or not he'll stay in New Jersey is now a serious question mark.

Have your say in the comments below. Are you concerned that Zajac is going this route? Did I get something wrong or forget about an example of a Devils-arbitration hearing going well? Let me know how you think about this news.

Puck Prospectus: Devils Second Best Drafting Team since 1994

John Fischer — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 00:30:58 -0000

Puck Prospectus: Devils Second Best Drafting Team since 1994

I found this link through the Devils forum on HF Boards. It ties in nicely with what I put up over the weekend, that the Devils are the second best team overall in the NHL in the last 15 years. After all, you need to draft plenty of talented players to remain a consistent contender in the NHL.

Tom Awad uses a metric called GVT to determine who has been the most successful at drafting in the last 15 years. Awad expected the Devils in first, but I think those "lean" years from 1999 through 2002 hold the Devils back. I think you'll be surprised who he found was first!

Since the 1993-94 Season, The New Jersey Devils are the Second Best Team in the NHL

John Fischer — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 02:02:53 -0000

It's true. The New Jersey Devils are the second best team in the NHL since the 1993-1994 season.

You see, one aspect of Devils fans - and I suppose this is true of all fandom - is how a certain few have such a poor opinion of the Devils. That since the Devils haven't done well in the playoffs or that their rosters don't look as good or that in spite of all these wins, they suck. A clear case of "what have you done for me lately." I understand that you shouldn't live in the past and the expectations for the Devils are higher than most, but at the same time, it's not to be thrown away as an afterthought either. When I hear that the Devils "suck" from a Devils fan, I honestly question that fan's perspective. Teams that suck are bad hockey teams, they are not successful teams, and they are clearly below average to the point that you have to refer to their performance as a verb. Yes, this is all based on anecdotal evidence, I'm not calling anyone out, and I'm sure every fanbase has this sentiment. Still, it's worth addressing as my initial thought is that the Devils aren't even below average, much less well below that mark!

Back in early May, James Mirtle pointed out how dominant the Detroit Red Wings were since 1992. Truly a model of success and consistency. I began to wonder how the Devils have stacked up to Detroit in past seasons. And given the negative sentiment some may have about the Devils, I think a comparison is in order not just between Detroit and New Jersey, but among all 30 NHL teams. Not just to counteract against this sentiment, but also for my own curiosity. I think it's worth knowing where you stand after a period of time with respect to your peers.

So with the conclusion of the 2008-09 season, I decided to go to Hockey DB, pull every team's regular season records and playoff results since the 1993-94 season, and see how they all compare with each other in terms of points, winning percentage, point percentage, and playoff success. I'm using the 1993-94 season as my starting point as Pittsburgh's 2009 Stanley Cup win was the 15th one won since 1994. While this includes a lost season (2004-05) and a shortened season (1994-95), it affected everyone and the Stanley Cup was awarded all the same. 15 years is a good length of time, I think, to consider all kinds of trends and changes within the league that has happened in that time frame.

Especially now with some fans understandably concerned on how well the Devils will do next season, I figure now is a good of time as any to bring these results to light with some analysis. It should provide some important perspective on where the Devils stand. What lies below is a lot of content, mostly in the form of charts. As they clearly prove the Devils are the second best team in the NHL since 1994.

Let's get right into it. Here are all 30 teams ranked by the number of points earned since the 1993-94 season:

Now, I've included the four expansion teams since 1993-94 - Nashville, Atlanta, Columbus, and Minnesota - just to see how they will play out. I understand they could not have played all 1198 season games since then, so I have them grayed-out accordingly.

The Devils are right near the top, having earned 1490 points out of a possible 2396 since the 1993-94 season. Detroit is the only team to has performed better in this timeframe. Moreover, the Devils stand in an area of their own, with a comfortable 53 point lead over Dallas. The runner ups continue to be teams that have been fairly strong since 1993-94: Colorado and Philadelphia.

As you can gather from the list, teams have tended to fall into clusters. For example, Buffalo, St. Louis, Boston, and Toronto aren't too terribly apart from each other and then comes a little dip (18 points, to be precise) before the next group of San Jose, Pittsburgh, and Ottawa.

Here, the middle point is shared by the New York Rangers and the Washington Capitals. Given that the Devils are well above both teams in this comparison, we cannot say the Devils "suck."

Let's look at it from another angle. This chart sorts the teams by points percentage. What I did here is the same thing Hockey DB does for it's percentages for regular season records: total number of points earned divided by the total potential number of points. This yields the points percentage. Just like they did/do in the NHL, wins are worth two points; ties, overtime losses, and shootout losses are all worth one point, and losses are worth nothing.

As expected, the Devils come in second here - right behind Detroit. The differences are more pronounced, with Detroit remarkably earning 67.15% of all possible points since 1993-94, and the second-place Devils are a little more than 5% less than that at 61.19%. No other team cracks 60%, though Dallas and Colorado are just out of reach of that plateau.

Half of the expansion teams fare better in this regard, now that we've taken games out of the equation. Minnesota is actually above the midpoint here! A testament to the team's work ethic as well as Lemaire's coaching ability among other factors. Nashville isn't too bad, sitting 19th overall. Columbus and Atlanta swap spots at the bottom, though.The midpoint teams change a little bit as a result. The franchise with the most Stanley Cups in history, Montreal, are 15th here and the Rangers slide down to 16th. Given that the Devils are have earned 10% more potential points than those two teams, again, you cannot claim that the Devils "suck."

OK, so that's with points. What about just wins? Let's put grinding out points in extra time or just earning a tie aside and see how a comparison by pure winning percentages plays out. To clarify, that's the number of wins earned divided by the number of potential wins.

As expected, Detroit and New Jersey come in first and second, as no other team has won more than 650 games. That Detroit has won over 700 in this time frame is impressive! What's not so impressive is that a majority of the league is under 49% in this comparison. In fact, 11 teams are in that 43-45% range, which I suppose can speak to some of the parity of the league.

There is movement among the teams when you take wins into account instead of points. Toronto and Pittsburgh move up, Boston goes down, and it is Tampa Bay who has been worse than the Islanders in this scenario! Only Atlanta remains totally at the bottom in both comparisons by percentages - poor Thrasher fans! Interestingly enough, Anyway, the holders of the midpoint return to the Rangers and Wahsington, respectively. I didn't expect the Rangers to be right around the mid-point in all three regular season comparisons, truth be told. But here are they are! Once again, given that the Devils have won 10% more of games than both of these teams in the middle, you cannot say the Devils "suck."

At this point, you're probably thinking to yourself, "John, tell me something I don't know. The Devils have been great in the regular season. It's in the playoffs where they blow it and if you can't make it in the playoffs, then you're not good enough." To that end, I have put together a chart detailing every team's playoff results since the 1994 playoffs: whether they made the playoffs, what round they lost in, or that they won the Stanley Cup. Forget seeds, forget number of games in the series, and all of that - this is about results. Did the team win or lose or were simply not involved?

Since this is a results-oriented business and results seem to be what the Devils fans (as well as the organization) may be most unsatisfied with, I have organized it based on how many Stanley Cups the team has won since 1994. After all, that is the ultimate goal, right?

Once again, the Devils are only second to Detroit, who was on the verge of a fifth Stanley Cup this past spring.

Now, I understand the initial criticism will be "Well, duh, I know the Devils won 3 Stanley Cups, John. But that was back in 2003! And look at all those first round exits!" Let's take a closer look at the numbers presented by this chart.

The first fact I want to point out is that the Devils have only missed the playoffs once in the last 15 playoffs. This cannot be understated and not just because it's second to Detroit, who have been perfect at making it to the post season. For a team to have success in the playoffs, you have to actually make the playoffs.

Second, the Devils and Detroit are the only teams to have been to the Stanley Cup Finals more than twice since the 1994 playoffs. The most other teams have done has been twice, with Colorado winning both times and Dallas, Pittsburgh, Anaheim, and Carolina for winning at least once.

Incidentally, no team has been to the Stanley Cup Finals twice and lost since 1994. As far as the "one-hit wonders" go, it doesn't look too good. Philadelphia, Buffalo, Ottawa, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Washington, and Florida all failed; whereas the Rangers and Tampa Bay were the only ones to succeed (and against a team who has only made it to the Finals once in that time frame!). As a further aside, congratulations to Tampa Bay for being the worst team over all the last 15 years to have won a Stanley Cup! Poor Philadelphia, Buffalo, St. Louis, Boston, Toronto, and San Jose (among others)!

Actually, that little aside brings me to a third fact. Yes, the Devils' last Stanley Cup was 2003. But those 6 teams I just mentioned were ranked 5th through 10th (inclusive) in points since 1993-94 and they won no Cups. Half of those teams are experiencing Cup droughts over decades (Philly is the latest winner - 1975), the other half hasn't won a Stanley Cup ever. (Moreover, the top 4? All have at least 1 Cup!) Keep this in mind the next time you are concerned that the Devils' last Cup was in 2003.

Fourth, out of the 14 times the Devils did make the playoffs, they still advance past the first round a majority of the time. It's a percentage that has fallen in recent years, but it's still over 50%. Moreover, historically, the Devils have moved on from the second round 5 out of 8 times - another value affected by post lockout playoffs.

While disappointing that the recent results aren't anything to write home about, it's not too terrible in comparison with other teams. Of all the teams that have only missed the post season 5 times or less (excluding Minnesota as they have been in existence for only 8 seasons), Detroit, Colorado, Dallas, San Jose, and Pittsburgh have a better success rate historically. Yet, only Detroit and Colorado have a higher success rate since then. And of course, the Devils are in between those two teams with respect to the number of Stanley Cups. In my opinion, this puts the Devils' playoff results in a little more perspective.

In fact, for the sake of argument, let's define "playoff failure" as the number of times a team missed the playoffs and the number of times a team lost in the first round. After all, if we're making the post season, let's not crash in the first round. That would mean the Devils "failed" 7 times, as many as Minnesota (again, 8 seasons of playoffs so ignore them) and San Jose (who has never made it beyond the third round and reached that level only once). Only Detroit (4 first round losses) and Colorado (3 missed playoffs, 3 first round losses) have done better than New Jersey.

Here's my final conclusion regarding the playoffs. Yes, it sucks that the Devils have not made it past the second round since the lockout. Yes, the last two playoffs were disappointing. But again, I am stressing perspective. and based on the results of the Devils - only Detroit clearly has done better than the Devils and depending on what metric you use, Colorado can be argued to have been more successful at going deeper than the Devils. It's not as definitive, but the Devils are way ahead of most teams in the postseason. It's why anecdotal conventional wisdom in April seemingly always has the Devils as contenders of sorts.

Furthermore, this I think gives further justification to theory that the first round is the Devils' biggest stumbling block. This is true, given 6 first round exits as compared with only 5 post-first round exists. Once the Devils get past that first round, the odds of them moving on tend to go up based on past history. Also based on past history, you can almost count on the Devils making the playoffs.

Or in other words, based on what the Devils have done in comparison, the Devils do not "suck." The New Jersey Devils are the second best team in the NHL since the 1993-94 season. Only Red Wings fans can truly see the Devils as an inferior team.

This will be it for the blog this weekend and until Monday afternoon, unless there is some news happening. Enjoy your July 4th weekend! As always, feel free to leave comments agreeing or disagreeing with what I have found. Make comments about other findings you can gather from this (outside of wow, the Islanders/Lightning/Kings/Panthers sucked). If I made an error or you need a clarification, let me know and I will be more than glad to address the issue.