SB Nation User Blog: John Morgan

The Ryan Mallett Catch-22

John Morgan — Fri, 25 Dec 2009 00:24:02 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

Ryan Mallett and Josh Freeman share a type, and that type typically puts a foot in Seattle's ass.

A little light content on this Christmas Eve.

The 2010 draft is interesting in that it has a strong top half, but not for quarterbacks, and yet its quarterback class is deep. Unless something dramatic happens between now and next April, Jimmy Clausen in the top quarterback taken. After him, there's room for a riser or three and time for Sam Bradford to fall. Bradford looked precise, poised and potent his two seasons playing behind Phil Loadholt and Duke Robinson, amassed gonzo stats, but since has taken two injurious sacks in just 71 drop backs.

Pocket awareness is hugely important. What can look like poise in college, can turn into tunnel vision. Defenders arrive faster, hit harder, strip better, and deflect passes towards linebackers that run like corners. It's a skill as much as accuracy and as essential as accuracy.

If Seattle isn't in on Clausen, and Bradford cannot properly acquit himself, I'd rather they not invest a first round pick on a second tier prospect. There's, like, ten second-tier quarterback prospects in this draft. And while careful scouting can help filter the wheat from the chafe, sometimes discretion is the better part of scouting: don't overplay what you know.

Here's an annotated highlight reel of one those second-tier quarterback prospects: Ryan Mallett

Arkansas hosted Auburn. Auburn is ranked 37 by FEI and 36 by S&P in overall defensive efficiency. S&P rates Auburn as 29 in pass defense efficiency. Unlike the Jones-McFadden Razorbacks, this isn't a run, run, ruuun--throw a pass or two-offense, but a relatively balanced offense with a much for effective passing game than run game. In fact, S&P slavers over this aerial attack. Arkansas ranks first overall in offense powered by its first overall pass offense.

:40 Mallett has a deliberate delivery, but it's not Tebow-esque.

:50 Lazily throws off his back foot. The ball flutters and is underthrown. He overestimates the front side pressure coming from inside right tackle.

:56 YAC play.

1:27 Good zip, obviously. It errs downward, which is preferable to high or behind. He locks onto one read right away and waits for the receiver to run to a spot.

1:34 Under center, PA, finds his man and waits for him to flash open. Squares, turns hips, cocks and delivers a tight spiral on a crossing pattern ending 25-yards down field and in the left flat. Takes a hit.

2:35 This, ladies and gentleman, is the good kind of check down. Mallett finds it quick and completes. A lot of room develops underneath when the deep passing attack is developed.

2:40 Designed fade perfectly placed on the receiver's hands. You'll notice the 6'3" Greg Childs (15) doesn't have much of a window behind the 6'2" Neiko Thorpe (85).

2:59 Even sweeter on second viewing.

3:27 This guy's huge. Here we see that he moves pretty damn well and even looks a little lanky in his 252 pound body. The little flourish at the end of the hand off is cute, but should be dropped. The pass is part ugly and part promising. It's a rollout and that he's able to throw a roll out from his back foot speaks to how raw, raw, raw this guy is. He still snaps his hips and he still gets it there. Within the context, this is successful if not form execution.

3:36 Replay: Notice, again, he errs low. I'd rather a Donovan McNabb type that groundballs some passes than a Eli Manning type that line drives some passes. Both are better than quarterbacks that miss horizontally. That can be a crippling weakness.

4:16 The deep touch pass, one of the more aesthetically pleasing executions in football. Notice, not off play action. Three-step drop to a 'go' route up the right sideline, the exact drop-route combination Matt Schaub found Andre Johnson with. Nice to be on the other end of that.

4:26 On second viewing: POD is insufferably rancorous and pro-idiot.

4:34 Each leg is like an out of pads Colt McCoy. You can't just look at a guy and know he will be able to break sacks. That's combination of skill, awareness, demeanor and decision making along with, obviously, strength. But Mallett should have the strength, and it's worth noting, that with the proliferation of the 3-4, for the first time I can remember, pass rushers are becoming smaller.

4:45 Effortless.

5:24 Notice his swagger on this play. This was a blowout win for Arkansas over a ranked opponent, but it wasn't a win yet in the early fourth. Auburn had scored 20 unanswered to close the third. This was a tight game and an essential drive.

The call looks reminiscent of Greg Knapp. First, PA out of shotgun. Then the pocket and Mallett move left. The rusher continues right and runs a streak into the end zone. That pulls the safeties. Then Mallet pops a cocky little hip flip and finds his man crossing towards the right flat.

The pass is precise and if not difficult, shows that Mallett can execute a complex, multi-tiered fake. You know, what causes Seneca Wallace to sack himself and Matt Hasselbeck to scramble.

And there we go.

This wasn't Mallett's best game but it made a nice show of tools and type. Get the right game, and Derek Anderson has done better against pro competition. That's the rub: Quarterbacks like Anderson and Mallett can look majestic one week and sickening the next. His completion percentage is only 57.2%, but that's not intolerable given his mad bomber profile. It does point to him being primarily a play action quarterback, at least until he fully develops his decision making.

Mallett transferred from Michigian after Rich Rodgiriguez arrived. He played spot duty in 2007, sat in 2008 and therefore 2009 is about all we have to pull from. He's says he has not made a decision about entering the draft. Theoretically, his decision is dependent on where he will be selected. Mallett's last chance to prove his wares comes January 2, against East Carolina. Advanced stats paint the Pirates as a mediocre team flying a fearsome record. If Mallett excels, his stock will rise and he may declare, and if he struggles, his stock will sink and he'll likely stick in school.

The Grim Truth about Seattle's 2009 Defense

John Morgan — Mon, 18 May 2009 22:07:32 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

That's the smiling face of an anchor. Right is the man who must hope anchors don't sink.

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(Editor's Note: This was originally posted May 18, 2009. It seems appropriate and so I am re-posting it.)

How good can this defense be? This time last year, it seemed on the verge of elite. The Seahawks had the 11^th ranked defense by DVOA, it was young, and to the human eye, 2007's defense looked capable of so much more. 2007 now seems like an over-hyped Pinkerton in light of 2008's retroactively bastardizing Maladroit. Not only did Seattle's defense crumble, but 2008 itself took some of the shine off 2007. Seattle faced offenses led by Matt Leinart, Trent Dilfer, Marc Bulger, Derek Anderson, Alex Smith, Rex Grossman, Gus Frerotte, AJ Feeley, Matt Moore, Troy Smith, Chris Redman, and Todd Collins in 12 of its 18 games. Was it any wonder then that it was fourth in the league in interceptions and first in the league in touchdowns allowed? Of those twelve, I figure only Leinart, Anderson and Grossman have the requisite arm strength to reach Brian Russell's overseer zone, and the three combined for 6.73 adjusted net yards an attempt. That's 0.1 yards better than Matt Hasselbeck's 2005.

2007 sits between a 20^th ranked performance in 2006 and a 27^th ranked performance in 2008. In light of the jobber's row of quarterbacks Seattle faced, 2007 looks like the outlier. Which is troubling, because this team isn't making the playoffs on the back of its offense.

No, Seattle's defense must step up, become above average and likely top-ten, for Seattle to be any kind of contender. I'm having trouble seeing how that's going to happen. Jim Mora has never done anything like that as a coach, where his Falcons were average to below average every season. He never did anything like that as a defensive coordinator, where his 49ers were average to below average every season. Gus Bradley is pure Tampa 2, and if you see a Tampa 2 talent on this roster not named Tatupu or Tapp, give me a heads up. Mebane could play the one, but Colin Cole fixes that. Maybe Bradley is an undiscovered genius, but there's no evidence of that, and it would be abnormal for a defensive minded head coach to hire a defensive mastermind to work beneath him. Mora, depressingly so, is supposed to be the defensive mastermind.

Here's how I think Seattle hopes things work. The run defense, powered by a suddenly beefy line and built around three run-killing linebackers becomes bona fide elite -- top three. The secondary contains and eliminates long pass plays. It does this by keeping Brian Russell deep and playing lots of zone defense. The combination keeps offenses on the field and opportunities for turnovers rolling in. It bends all day and breaks for the ball. It defies statistics; it creates turnovers.

How flawed is this model? Oh, horrendously. A team built around run defense is accentuating the least important single aspect of winning. At the same time, Seattle has mostly neglected its pass defense, likely even downgrading it. Pass defense is the second most important single aspect of winning. Make what you will of Rocky Bernard and his supposed decline, but he had more sacks for a 4-12 team than Colin Cole has for his career. The team shipped of its best pass rusher and did so to acquire a player that further buries its third best pass rusher. Cory Redding is an active and disruptive single-gap defensive tackle, but if injuries have forced him to drop weight and play end, he should be a situational run stopper, not starting over Darryl Tapp. Seattle's second best pass rusher, now first, is 32 and returning from his second season ending injury in three years. Seattle is not a team built to dominate with its pass rush, and with Brian Russell still presumably playing free safety, it's not a secondary built to allow the rush time to develop. Let's see how Ken Lucas likes playing Robinson Crusoe.

I like how Tim Ruskell scouts talent, and he appears to be a shrewd and successful businessman able to manage the salary cap and attract free agent talent. His contract is up after this season and he's banking on Seattle rebounding enough to get him re-signed. That might not happen, and it might not happen because of one of those glaring omissions that bedevil Ruskell. This time it's coaching. Ruskell really likes something about Jim Mora. He not only signed Mora, but signed Mora's former offensive coordinator. He's given Mora tools, tools to create a malicious Jim Johnson-style blitz defense. Let's hope that's what all this West Coast Defense nonsense is about, because beyond football platitudes about aggression and creating pressure from the front four, I don't see much more than a vanilla 4-3. Tim Ruskell has tied his future to Jim L. Mora and I'm not sure why, but am interested and terrified to find out. Interested and terrified, but not hopeful.

Mike Tanier's All-Rookie Team

John Morgan — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 22:50:08 -0000

Mike Tanier's All-Rookie Team

Mike is always a fun read and this is a great discussion piece. He asked me about Unger and I, at first, attempted to dissuade him. On closer inspection though, it's been a weak first year for rookie guards. Max wins the Homer special: De! Fault! De! Fault!

Off Topic FanPost: End-of-the-Year List Madness

John Morgan — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 03:37:16 -0000

Top ten of 2009:

10. Glassware: I learned the right glasses and the pour for my favorite beers. It's nice that as I grow older I am no longer the scrappy drunk that used to steal quarters from atop my father's dresser, but now the refined drunk that can wax philosophical over a chalice of Hop Rod Rye Ale.

9. No politics:

8. Increased awareness of gluten intolerance: A blessing for my wife and therefor I.

7. Sauvie Island: A place I can swim naked (alone).

6. Rob Sims: We'll look back at 2009 as the year Rob Sims took a big step forward as an offensive lineman.

5. No we won't: I wrack my brain searching for something meaningful from this season and only see meaningful decay.

4. Bands I discovered or learned to appreciate more this year: St. Vincent, The Kinks, Animal Collective, Murs, Rock Plaza Central, Tortoise, Mclusky, Les Savy Fav, The Rural.., Destroyer, The New Pornographers, Cheap Trick,

3. I mean, even Brandon Mebane has kind of been a disappointment: The shit I get to complain about.

2. Continued love and learning of the English language: Best book I read this year was 'Parasites Like Us'. I'm a big believer that science fiction can be much better than it is. This book grew grating towards its conclusion, and it had a few 'Monkey Wrench Gang' -like abuses of plot, but it was modern, informed, fresh and thoroughly engaging.

Mclusky has the best song lyrics of the year, Murs the most poetic and Les Savy Fav wins best storytelling.

The best pure writing I've read this season has come from the conversations of game threads. I can't remember any specific run. I can remember laughing my ass off.

1. Z: What desperate days these be in Seattle sports if not for Jack Zduriencik.

The Eric DeCosta Scorecard

John Morgan — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 02:02:50 -0000

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

Eric DeCosta's living resume, in repose.

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(What follows is over seven pages and 2,500 words long. If you're interested in the gist of it, scroll down to the end.)

I did an overview on Eric DeCosta, but think I can do better and think you deserve better. Here's an attempt to hold DeCosta by the same standard I held Steve Keim. First I will look at his work as a Midwest scout for the Ravens from 1998-2002, and then his work as the director of college scouting from 2003-2009.

Baltimore did not draft a talent from the Midwest until 2001.

2001

3) 92 Casey Rabach C Wisconsin

4) 126 Edgerton Hartwell LB Western Illinois

7) 231 Dwayne Missouri DE Northwestern

Casey Rabach might remind some of Seattle's Chris Spencer situation. Rabach was drafted in the third round by the Ravens but struggled to break through early in his career. He then signed with the Redskins and became the most consistent player on their offensive line.

Hartwell was a pretty good value for the round he was taken in. He started his second season and from 2002-2004 before leaving in free agency. His approximate value in those seasons is 9, 8 and 9. Atlanta signed him to a six-year, $26.25 million contract before 2005, but injuries sapped his ability and he was cut in 2007.

Missouri is a seventh round pick that never broke through.

2002

2) 52 Anthony Weaver DE Notre Dame

4) 112 Dave Zastudil P Ohio U.

4) 123 Ron Johnson WR Minnesota

6) 206 Javin Hunter WR Notre Dame

6) 207 Chester Taylor RB Toledo

We see the rising influence of DeCosta in this draft, his last as a regional scout before being promoted. Weaver was a solid pick in the second. He was able to start his rookie season and started 16, 15 and 15 games before a host of injuries sidelined him in 2005. DeCosta scores twice on Weaver: For drafting him in the second and acquiring a Lawrence Jackson like end and for not re-signing him after injuries took their toll. Weaver looked like a stud back then, but fizzled away from Baltimore.

If you draft a punter in the fourth, he better stick and he better be great. Zastudil is not, by all accounts. His rookie season with Baltimore, the Ravens were below average punting the ball, and over his four season, he was twice below average and twice above average - almost in equal degrees. I am starting to think it is very hard to evaluate a punter from an outsider's perspective. I disagree with drafting a punter so early, but it seems Zastudil is, if nothing else, a competent punter that can be good.

Johnson never developed as a receiver or returner and was last a linebacker and receiver for the Cleveland Gladiators.

Hunter's career peak was a 63 yard kickoff return in 2002. He is not the same kind of flat bust as Johnson. Hunter started strong in the preseason and started three regular season games as a rookie. He ruptured his Achilles before the start of 2003 and was never the same player. Push.

Chester Taylor started his career as a third down back, but slowly worked himself into the running back rotation. Taylor was buried behind Jamal Lewis, but still produced, was signed by Minnesota in 2006, rushed for 1,200 yards, and was then buried behind Adrian Peterson. Taylor has been valuable throughout his career and is a huge win on DeCosta's resume.

Starting in 2003, we must assume DeCosta took a leadership position in the Ravens entire draft.

2003

1) 10 Terrell Suggs OLB Arizona State

1) 19 Kyle Boller QB California

3) 77 Musa Smith RB Georgia

4) 109 Jarret Johnson DE Alabama

4) 134 Ovie Mughelli FB Wake Forest

5) 146 Aubrayo Franklin DT Tennessee

5) 173 Tony Pashos T Illinois

6) 182 Gerome Sapp DB Notre Dame

7) 223 Trent Smith TE Oklahoma

7) 250 Mike Mabry C Central Florida

7) 258 Antwoine Sanders - Utah

Suggs has been a baller from snap one. He was a situational pass rusher as a rookie and recorded 12 sacks. He has 56.5 for his career, 5 interceptions, 32 passes defended and 18 forced fumbles. Suggs is an elite player, still only 27, and a young 27, and a grand slam pick for DeCosta.

Boller is everything I said about Suggs, applied to a quarterback, inverted and intensified. A complete bust that looked the part of a bust, my only tempering of this massive misstep by DeCosta is that Brian Billick pushed hard for Boller, and in those days, Billick was a respected coach, and a force slapdicks shouldn't defy.

Musa Smith looked like a talented back on his way up before Roy Williams effectively ended his career with a horse collar tackle. Smith suffered a compound fracture of his tibia. The play directly led to the banning of horse collar tackles, but the damage was done for Smith. He played sparingly the next two seasons and could never reestablish himself. Push.

Jarret Johnson took a slow path to success, but has been a regular starter in four of the last five seasons. A very good pick that is still paying dividends for the Ravens, notably, Johnson's AV in 2008 was 10, better than Bart Scott.

Mughelli didn't break through right away with the Ravens, but is now considered one of the best fullbacks in football. He was good in his final two seasons in Baltimore, but lured away when Atlanta offered him big bucks. A minor success for what they got.

The hits keep coming: Franklin was a valuable rotational player for Baltimore, even starting once, and is now a starter for San Francisco. Mike Nolan targeted Franklin, which says something about his perceived value, and though he never fully broke through with Baltimore, he was playing behind Kelly Gregg. Not a horn-blowing success, but very good value for the pick.

Pashos is what a right tackle should be: cheap and good enough. A good player for Baltimore and eventually Jacksonville, Pashos is a good run blocker that was a great value for the Ravens.

Gerome Sapp couldn't stick with the Ravens, signed with the Colts and then signed again with the Ravens. He played nickelback. Neither a bust nor hit, but a pick spent on a semi-talented player that just didn't fit on the roster.

Smith, Mabry and Sanders had no noteworthy NFL career.

2004

2) 51 Dwan Edwards DT Oregon State

3) 82 Devard Darling WR Washington State

5) 153 Roderick Green LB Central Missouri State

6) 187 Josh Harris QB Bowling Green State

6) 199 Clarence Moore WR Northern Arizona

7) 244 Derek Abney WR Kentucky

7) 246 Brian Rimpf T East Carolina

Edwards is still a sometimes starter, sometimes rotational end for the Ravens. He is neither a bust nor a hit, but a semi-valuable player acquired with a semi-valuable pick.

Darling never produced for Baltimore, and that's quite an achievement, because the 2004 Ravens leading receiver was Travis Taylor. Taylor had 421 yards receiving. Darling was last in Kansas City. His current whereabouts are unknown, but, presumably, not in Kansas anymore.

Green struggled to produce, was stabbed July 2006, subsequently released and is now out of the league.

The rest of the draft barely made an impact and all four are now out of the league. After ruling draft day, DeCosta's second draft produced no starters, and only one regular.

2005

1) 22 Mark Clayton WR Oklahoma

2) 53 Dan Cody LB Oklahoma

2) 64 Adam Terry T Syracuse

4) 124 Jason Brown C North Carolina

5) 158 Justin Green RB Montana

6) 213 Derek Anderson QB Oregon State

7) 234 Mike Smith LB Texas Tech

Clayton had a strong rookie season, an even better sophomore season and has since spun his wheels into the mud. The 22^nd overall pick, Clayton is not a prize, but surely a value, still young, and maybe has better seasons ahead of him.

Cody was a fine prospect whose career has been eaten by injuries. He started 42 games in college. Best to call this a push, as the injury seemed unpredictable and traumatic.

Terry was a second round selection that never fully broke out of spot starter duties. Terry has not played in 2009. This is another pick muddled by injuries and therefore hard to evaluate.

Jason Brown started his second season and is a highly regarded center. St. Louis threw smarts to the wind and signed him to googolplex dollars this past offseason, but, for three seasons, he was a cheap and very good center for Baltimore.

Justin Green was a special teams contributor.

Anderson was waived his first season and claimed by the Cleveland Browns. He then had one of the great fluke quarterback seasons of all time, before retreating into his well furnished mansion of suck.

Smith contributed briefly for the Ravens on special teams.

2006

1) 12 Haloti Ngata DT Oregon

2) 56 Chris Chester C Oklahoma

3) 87 David Pittman DB Northwestern State-Louisiana

4) 111 Demetrius Williams WR Oregon

4) 132 P.J. Daniels RB Georgia Tech

5) 146 Dawan Landry SS Georgia Tech

5) 166 Quinn Sypniewski TE Colorado

6) 203 Sam Koch P Nebraska

6) 208 Derrick Martin CB Wyoming

7) 219 Ryan LaCasse LB Syracuse

Ngata is considered one of the best 3-4 linemen in football. He has played end and tackle, is just entering his prime, and should the conditions be right, could be entering a lengthy run of Pro Bowl appearances.

Chester was recruited as a tight end, drafted as a center, converted to guard, converted again to tight end and then converted back to guard again. He has 32 starts in his NFL career, and if never a stand out on his own, has been a good part of some very good offensive lines.

Pittman had two interception in 2007 and a forced fumble. That about summarizes his NFL career. He now plays in the UFL.

Williams is a field stretcher that has never come into his own as an actual receiver. He is not a bad player, and is valuable for his draft position.

Daniels was put on injured reserve prior to his second season and never recovered.

Dawan Landry has started three of the last four seasons, and, apart from 2008, has been a very solid starter for Baltimore since his rookie season. He used to noogie LaRon Landry.

Sypniewski was primarily a blocking tight end, but received some in 2007 after Todd Heap and Daniel Wilcox suffered injuries. He tore his ACL prior to this season.

Koch is the Ravens current punter. This season the team is slightly above average punting.

Martin is a talented young defensive back that was buried in Baltimore and now plays in Green Bay. Baltimore traded Martin for offensive tackle Tony Moll.

LaCasse never factored.

2007

1) 29 Ben Grubbs G Auburn

3) 74 Yamon Figurs WR Kansas State

3) 86 Marshal Yanda T Iowa

4) 134 Antwan Barnes LB Florida International

4) 137 Le'Ron McClain FB Alabama

5) 174 Troy Smith QB Ohio State

6) 207 Prescott Burgess LB Michigan

Supplemental

5) Jared Gaither T Maryland

Baltimore built their left side with this draft and in impressive fashion. Grubbs is a promising young starter and on the short list for best young offensive guards in football.

Yamon Figurs returned a kick and a punt for a touchdown in his first season, but could never stick as a receiver. Once the Ravens found a better return man, Figurs was cut, and is currently a free agent.

Yanda is a spot starter at guard and tackle that may have outright won the right guard position this season after starting the last four games and playing ably. I'm a big fan of Yanda.

Barnes is a rotational linebacker and special teams player for the Ravens.

McClain is a fullback better known for his rushing than blocking, but so what? He was astonishingly valuable in 2008 and the 11-5 Ravens leading rusher. This season he is buried behind Ray Rice and Willis McGahee. McClain's is a curious story to say the least. I am not sure he will ever repeat his 2008 performance, and certainly some of that performance must be credited the Ravens line, but for that year alone, we must credit DeCosta with another fullback find.

Smith was a member of the jobbers row of quarterbacks Seattle fattened against in 2007. He is now a Wildcat quarterback.

Burgess has split time between the Ravens and Patriots, and is, essentially, depth and a special teams player.

Gaither is the crown jewel of this class. DeCosta got Gaither for a fifth round pick in the supplemental draft, and now he is their starting left tackle, and franchise tackle of the future. Gaither isn't in the class of young Turk left tackles taking over the NFL, but he's close, a rare physical specimen (the tallest man in the NFL), a powerful drive blocker with developing pass pro skills. He was available in the supplemental draft because of bad grades, and available in the fifth round of the supplemental draft because a lot of other GMs didn't do their homework.

That leads us to the last draft we'll look at in detail.

1) 18 Joe Flacco QB Delaware

2) 55 Ray Rice RB Rutgers

3) 71 Tavares Gooden OLB Miami (Fla.)

3) 86 Tom Zbikowski FS Notre Dame

3) 99 Oniel Cousins T Texas-El Paso

4) 106 Marcus Smith WR New Mexico

4) 133 David Hale G Weber State

6) 206 Haruki Nakamura FS Cincinnati

7) 215 Justin Harper WR Virginia Tech

7) 240 Allen Patrick RB Oklahoma

Joe Flacco is a franchise quarterback.

Ray Rice is one of the best young running backs in football.

Bart Scott's replacement doesn't fill a stat sheet, but Tavares Gooden is starting for a top ten defense in his second season. It's premature to pass judgment on T-Good.

Everyone's favorite boxing white safety is mostly a special teams force, but in three starts this season, he has two interceptions and four passes defended. I liked this pick when it was made, but it's, again, a little early to project his future value.

Cousins has started the last two games at right tackle, but through force of attrition rather than eminent skill. Nevertheless, one injury ravaged offensive line to another, Cousins seems more capable than some of Seattle's replacements.

The next three players are special teamers, and Allen Patrick was cut.

2004 was a hot mess, and, tellingly, occurred after DeCosta swept the 2003 draft. So, all GMs and potential GMs have their highs and lows, but DeCosta's highs certainly seem to outnumber and more than compensate for his lows. If we wanted to put a stamp on his career in Baltimore, I would stamp it a success, but let's attempt something a little more nuanced.

He seems to excel at drafting offensive line talent. He has never invested major resources into the offensive line but still acquired Rabach, Pashos, Terry, Brown, Chester, Sypnewski, Grubbs, Yanda, Gaither and Cousins. He also has had several successes drafting defensive linemen, linebackers, running backs, fullbacks and safeties. His run of backs is particularly impressive. He doesn't trend towards a specific region and seems to have no major leanings towards small schools or big schools. His success at drafting quarterbacks is mixed. Kyle Boller was an inexcusable failure, but Anderson and Smith were decent value for their pick position and Flacco is a young stud. Truthfully, I'm not wild about Flacco's profile, and though he's stepping into this own, the big bodied, big armed profile DeCosta seems to favor is notorious for producing busts.

What excites me most about DeCosta is not his drafting record, but the prolific picks he secures. Few teams enter draft day so consistently stocked with picks throughout the draft, and unlike other GMs that will burn those picks to move up and select their guy, DeCosta stands pat and picks many players. He has benefited immensely from trawling the draft and seeing what value shakes out.

His high profile and history of finding offensive line talent should make him a favorite for the Seattle position. I don't know that DeCosta is the "Z" we desire, but on second inspection, he is a young, well connected executive with a diverse portfolio of success.

Monday Night Football - Open Thread

John Morgan — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 01:17:19 -0000

The ever polarizing Jason Campbell hosts the formerly polarizing Eli Manning. Manning is a year older than Campbell almost to the day. Campbell has outperformed Eli, statistically speaking, year-for-year, throughout the pair's careers before Manning broke out in his age 27 season. Campbell is 27 for a few more weeks, but hasn't played significantly better this season than last. One would think that so young, playing against consistently tough divisional competition, and at the helm of a young, largely talent poor offense, his holding pattern, continued good but not great play, would be a minor victory for the young quarterback -- a reason for patience, if not celebration.

Instead, it will end his time as a starter in Washington. Unlike Eli, who has consistently underperformed Campbell in completion percentage and interception percentage, and has the exact same career adjusted yards per attempt, Campbell doesn't have winner written into his name. Campbell's slow development and good but not great play is proof that he's double dense and incapable of development. On a team with more jobbers than players, Campbell is the brain-twisting lightning rod for fan and ownership complaints.

If only he could ride the league's best rushing attack and a dominant defense to a Super Bowl, then he would be a significantly better quarterback.

Mike Holmgren is the Man in Cleveland

John Morgan — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 00:54:12 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

Big Show is the Browns new czar of football stuff and recipient of unearned praise. Good luck, Mike Holmgren. I hope you are successful and not just credited with the natural rebound due a franchise that's been rebuilding all decade.

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Well, Cleveland is where I expected the Big Show to land, so I see this as less news than confirmation. I wish Mike Holmgren nothing but success. He failed as a general manager his first go round, but was, perhaps, overwhelmed with coaching and running the franchise. I think that's unlikely though. I think it is much more likely that Holmgren has an eye for offensive talent, no eye for defensive talent, a maddening sense of loyalty that blinds his judgment, and the kind of pride and self confidence to lead a franchise towards ruin if things break badly.

But that will wait. Today, Holmgren inherits a deceptively talented Browns offense and defense and should benefit immensely from the halo effect of a rising franchise. If you're out there boys and girls, remember to buy low, and take credit for the inevitable revival. Fans seem categorically opposed to rating the individual moves of an executive, and when Cleveland rebounds from a terrible season, Holmgren will surely be credited for...whatever.

The Steve Keim Scorecard

John Morgan — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 00:28:23 -0000

More photos » by John Froschauer - AP

Seattle Seahawks fans are unused to repeat failure. Perhaps a Cardinals suit can make them more familiar with the feeling.

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Adam Schefter reports that Steve Keim is among Seattle's ten general manager candidates. This is a quick and dirty attempt to review his performance in Arizona.

Organization: Arizona Cardinals

Position(s): Player Personnel Director (May 2008), College Scouting Director (June 2006), Regional Scout (1999)

Curious that perhaps the most defamed team in the NFC, bad from when the Lions and Rams were good, is now auditioning personnel for promotion to other teams. Thus is the fickle world of the NFL. I don't like it, and I don't like Keim's boss Rod Graves. Graves has served with Arizona since 1997, and few franchises in any sport can claim a longer period of losing, instability and apathy from their fans. But, by all means, let's break off a piece of that talent factory.

Keim scouted the east for Arizona, and, undoubtedly, the southeast specifically. Let us first look at the players we can be most confident Keim had a hand in scouting. I singled out picks made from Keim's particular scouting area, and listed the round, overall pick, name and college.

2000

1) 7 Thomas Jones RB Virginia

2) 41 Raynoch Thompson OLB Tennessee

3) 71 Darwin Walker DT Tennessee

Jones is still around but was a huge bust for Arizona. He split time with Michael Pittman, never averaged more than 3.7 yards per carry and was traded before the end of his rookie contract.

Raynoch Thompson sort of speaks for himself: Who is Raynoch Thompson? He was an undersized Vol linebacker that was out of the league by 2004. He is still only 32, meaning he was cut in his prime.

Darwin Walker played for that same undefeated Tennessee team as Thompson. He didn't play for the Cardinals, who cut him before a single start and after only one regular season game. Walker was claimed by the Eagles off waivers and became a productive five-year starter for some stout Eagles defenses.

2001

2) 54 Michael Stone DB Memphis

3) 64 Adrian Wilson DB North Carolina State

4) 98 Bill Gramatica K South Florida

4) 123 Marcus Bell DT Memphis

Stone never broke through with the Cardinals and is now out of the league.

Adrian Wilson is an unconditional success. Wilson and Keim share an alma mater. He is now considered among the best safeties in the NFL. This is exploiting a hometown connection to pick an absolute steal in the third. Too bad, I guess, that NC State is hardly a talent factory.

Kicker in the fourth. Kicker in the fourth. Kicker in the fourth.

Marcus Bell is out of the league after three seasons with Arizona and three seasons with Detroit.

2002

2) 49 Levar Fisher LB North Carolina State

Fisher is the only member of the 2002 class we can be pretty sure Keim had a significant say in drafting. Fisher was a standout at NC State, but lost his career to knee injuries. Fisher has knee problems in college, so this failure falls on Keim.

2003

1) 17 Bryant Johnson WR Penn State

1) 18 Calvin Pace DE Wake Forest

2) 54 Anquan Boldin WR Florida State

Johnson has been a disappointment since entering the league. He was surpassed by Boldin in their respective rookie seasons and is now a minor player for the Detroit Lions.

Arizona selected Pace with its next pick and he was a bust before Ken Whisenhunt switched him to outside linebacker in 2007. No credit is given Keim.

Boldin was a win for all involved, if, perhaps, a crapshoot win. Boldin was a quarterback and wide receiver at Florida State that suffered serious knee injuries in college and then ran a 4.71 forty. I respect Keim for seeing the potential in Boldin, but I do not think anyone expected Boldin to be so good. His health has never improved and he still regularly misses time because of injury.

2004

2) 33 Karlos Dansby OLB Auburn

3) 64 Darnell Dockett DT Florida State

Maybe this is Keim picking up speed and proving his potential. Dansby has been solid since being signed and still starts for Arizona. Of course, that's to be expected from a linebacker selected with the first pick of the second round.

Dockett has been a starter since his rookie season and a lynchpin on the Cardinals ever-in-flux defensive line. Over the past three seasons, he's been one of the best defensive linemen in football. He was considered a first-round talent, but also an underachiever and a major risk because of his battles with coaches, troubles with the law, and, specifically, his conviction for misdemeanor theft.

2005

1) 8 Antrel Rolle DB Miami (Florida)

3) 75 Eric Green DB Virginia Tech

3) 95 Darryl Blackstock LB Virginia

4) 111 Elton Brown G Virginia

Rolle is a corner bust since shifted to safety. He has played decent at safety, but credit for that goes to the person who made the move: Whisenhunt.

Green was an intermittent starter, mostly between injuries, that is now out of the league.

Blackstock is now out of the league. He played sparingly for Arizona before being signed by the Bengals -- another well run organization.

Brown was a seldom starter for the often very bad Cardinals offensive line that is now playing in the USFL.

2006

3) 72 Leonard Pope TE Georgia

6) 177 Jonathan Lewis DT Virginia Tech

Pope is a situational tight end and among the worst players at his position in the NFL.

Lewis participated in four games in 2006 and never again played in the NFL.

At this point, Keim was promoted to Director of College Scouting and can be debited or credited for the Cardinals entire draft class.

2007

1 5 Levi Brown OT Penn State

2 33 Alan Branch DT Michigan

3 69 Buster Davis LB Florida State

5 142 Steve Breaston WR Michigan

7 215 Ben Patrick TE Delaware

Brown is a middling power right tackle that isn't significantly better than Ray Willis. Bust.

Branch is a pretty typical Keim pick: Highly touted prospect, thought of as a top ten pick before a nasty run of belligerence and bad effort knocked him off most draft boards. Branch is three years into his professional career, still every bit the monster he was in college, and still a rotational player buried on the Cardinals depth chart.

Buster Davis was a terrible pick when made. Davis was an undersized, see: 5'9", linebacker completely unfit for Whisenhunt's preferred 3-4 alignment. He was cut before his rookie season, has since bounced around and is now out of the league.

Breaston was a return monster at Michigan State that has developed into a very good slot receiver. Keim must be credited for, first, securing a good returner in the sixth, and moreover, seeing that Breaston was turning the corner as a receiver. A big win for Keim, on a pick I was very skeptical about.

Patrick is the Cardinals starting tight end, but largely an afterthought in the team's offense. Patrick was a toolsy sleeper that's produced some, but is mostly a starter by default, and still more H-back than tight end.

2008

1) 16 Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie CB Tennessee State

2) 50 Calais Campbell DE Miami (Fla.)

3) 81 Early Doucet WR Louisiana State

4) 116 Kenny Iwebema DE Iowa

5) 149 Tim Hightower RB Richmond

6) 185 Chris Harrington LB Texas A&M

7) 225 Brandon Keith T Northern Iowa

This is the draft that made Keim a general manager candidate and his fingerprints are all over it. DRC was a tools messiah that shot up boards during the pre-draft process. He never faced top competition in college, and many, including myself, questioned his ability to cover NFL talent. Well, that question is yet unanswered. Cromartie certainly looks amazing-sometimes, but he is also regularly criticized for being out of position, burned and, well, not being able to cover NFL talent. The Cardinals, noteworthy in this case, are the second worst team in the NFL at defending #1 receivers and were 27^th in 2008. DRC is the unchallenged #1 corner in Arizona. He is only 23, and cover skills are slow to grow. Best to give this pick an "Incomplete". It's possible DRC puts it together and taps into his tremendous talent, and it's possible his flashy play hides a bad player.

Campbell was a slamdunk and is proving so in his second season. He is toolsy, growing into those tools, scheme correct and straight beastly.

I liked the Doucet pick at the time and still think he has a bright future. It's tough to measure his performance because he is buried on the Cardinals depth chart. Doucet suffered a lot of injuries in college and that might have sapped his speed.

Iwebama has proven to be a solid member of a good defensive line rotation. He was, and this will shock everyone that's read this far, a toolsy player that was knocked down boards because injury and off-field problems. His performance declined his senior season, something that hurt Campbell and Doucet's stock, too.

Hightower has proven himself a valuable receiver, but, then, who defends Tim Hightower when Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston are on the field. He has since been de-emphasized in favor of Chris Wells. Hightower is a modest success.

Harrington is now a Jaguar.

Keith is still on Arizona's roster and has played in one game this season.

It's a little too early to make much of the 2009 draft, but it further supports the basic Keim profile. In brief: His preferred scouting area is the American South East. He likes toolsy players and does not bat a lash at character concerns. Keim swings for the fences and has a high whiff rate. The 2008 draft has produced solid players, but let's be clear: The Cardinals are finishing their third decade of terrible football. They made the Super Bowl last season, but were only 9-7 in the regular season. The team changed when it signed Ken Whisenhunt, and its recent success has been built off smart leadership, a weak division, years and years of early round picks, and Kurt Warner. Warner has recovered from a mid-career funk to make a case for the Hall of Fame. That's mighty lucky. Warner joined the Cardinals in 2005 and I do not see how Keim could be credited with his signing.

Maybe he interviews well. Maybe his most recent drafts, his most successful drafts, speak more clearly of his own abilities and potential, but I don't like his method, I am not impressed with his results and I don't want to sign a person that's been an integral part of one of the worst run franchises in sports history. For every one diamond in the rough, there's acres and acres more rough. And, right or wrong, executives must be judged both by the decisions they make and the company they keep.

Sunday Night - Open Thread

John Morgan — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 00:39:19 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

Look! A head coach.

Browse more photos »

A chance to enjoy football again.

Seattle Seahawks Fucking Embarrass Themselves: Seahawks 7 - Bucs 24

John Morgan — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 23:48:51 -0000

Every so often, a time comes for rapid, comprehensive and radical action. The Seattle Seahawks are in crisis. The dam has bust, the fire station ablaze and the leadership is a bunch of dirtbags. We're about to burn to death or drown trying.

Jim Lawrence Mora officially tips the scales against Tim Ruskell. He is among the most incompetent leaders I have ever studied. He is considered like Caligula, fair like Stalin, confident like Marat and smart like a donut. This week, in order, he swapped his right guard and center after shaming and questioning the toughness of said center: Chris Spencer; He revealed that other teams perceive the Seahawks as soft and tacitly expressed his agreement; Voiced his thinking that for Seattle to be better, it needs more "dirtbags"; Led those dirtbags, through alternating three-man rushes and six-man blitzes, to its nadir as a modern franchise.

I am sick of fans having a better plan for this franchise than Tod Leiweke. Seahawks fans deserve better than this.

1. Respectfully fire Jim Mora.

2. Promote Dan Quinn.

3. If you cannot match the Mariners find; at least match the Mariners method: Find a General Manager that is as modern, considered, hard working, open and analytical as Jack Zduriencik.

Now.