SB Nation User Blog: John Sickels

Tim Alderson or Madison Bumgarner, Discussion

John Sickels — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 16:11:52 -0000

I am away on family matters this weekend, so here is a discussion question to keep you busy.

Of the two young Giants pitchers drafted in 2007, who would you rather have now for your own organization? Tim Alderson or Madison Bumgarner?

Alderson is 7-3, 3.13 with a 71/27 K/BB in 86 innings for San Jose in the California League, with 79 hits allowed, just one homer given up, and a 1.11 GO/AO. He's extremely polished and is thriving in a full-season advanced A league one year out of high school.

Bumgarner has been even better, 8-2, 1.77 with an 86/14 K/BB in 76 innings with 61 hits allowed for Augusta in the Sally League, three homers allowed, 0.90 GO/AO. He's not as polished as Alderson and is pitching at a lower level, but he's been dominant and has shown a better breaking ball (the big question for him on draft day) this year, granted the scouting reports I have indicate it still needs some work. The polish issue is relative: Alderson is still more advanced, but Bumgarner has turned out to have more polish than anticipated.

So, who do you go with here? Bumgarner has a higher physical upside. Does that clinch it for you? But it's not like Alderson is a soft-tosser, his stuff is above average, too. And success in the Cal League at age 19 is a big positive.

Who would you rather have for your farm system? And if you were the Giants, how quickly are you willing to move each of them up? Perhaps a comparison would be easier if Bumgarner gets promoted to San Jose and pitches alongside Alderson for awhile. Is Alderson ready for Double-A? Or would that be too much too fast? Lots to consider here, lots to discuss. Have at it.

RIP Jack Jackson

John Sickels — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 12:36:56 -0000

Jeri's brother Jack was killed in a flash flood last week. They found the body on Wednesday, thank God, which will at least provide some closure for the family. The funeral is Saturday.

The Jackson and Sickels families would like to thank everyone for their thoughts and prayers. They have been a sustaining force through this very difficult time. Blessings to everyone.

Happy Birthday America

John Sickels — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 16:30:07 -0000

Have a safe weekend, everyone.

Thoughts on Jaime Garcia

John Sickels — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 15:40:18 -0000

Jaime Garcia was drafted by the Cardinals in the 22nd round in 2005. He made his pro debut in the Midwest League in 2006 and was quite effective, entering 2007 as one of the better left-handed prospects in the game. But he was erratic last year for Double-A Springfield. He went 5-9, 3.75 with a 97/45 K/BB in 103 innings, with 93 hits allowed. Not bad at all for the Texas League, but not dominant. Of greater concern was inconsistent velocity: he was his usual 89-93 MPH self at times, but also had several starts where he was working in just the mid-to-upper 80s with less life in the ball. His command was also inconsistent, and the pieces of the mystery came together when he went on the DL last July with a sore elbow.

The pain was traced to a strained ligament, but surgery was avoided. He rehabbed, and looks like he's come back healthy this spring. His stuff is back to 2006 standards, upper-80s to lower-90s fastball with a very strong curveball. He's also continued to make progress with his changeup, and right now it looks like he got through the elbow problem without ill effect.

His performance has been solid this year. He began back at Springfield for a tuneup, going 3-2, 2.06 with a 41/16 K/BB in 35 innings. Promoted to Triple-A Memphis, he's held his own in his first look at the PCL, going 4-4, 4.06 wtih a 56/21 K/BB in 64 innings, 64 hits allowed. He has a 1.98 GO/AO ratio in Triple-A and is keeping the ball in the park with just five gophers given up.

He's doing well, but I would be leery about promoting him to the majors right now. His control is still a bit shaky at times, and he's alternated some outstanding outings (June 26th, 10 Ks in 6.2 innings for example) with weaker ones (eight walks in ten innings combined on June 15th and 21st). He is showing a reverse platoon split, with lefty hitters tagging him at .333 but right-handed hitters just .230.

I like Garcia but he needs more consolidation time in Triple-A. If I were the Cardinals, I would consider him a possible September call-up, but would avoid promoting him to the majors in July or August unless it was a huge emergency and no one else was available. He is still refining his command and needs to get further down the road from the elbow trouble. I gave him a Grade B in the book this year, and right now I will keep that rating the same.

Thoughts on Jhoulys Chacin

John Sickels — Thu, 03 Jul 2008 13:43:19 -0000

Thinking about Jhoulys Chacin

Chacin was signed by the Rockies in 2004 out of Venezuela. He didn't get to North American until '07, when he went 6-3, 3.13 with a 77/26 K/BB in 92 innings for Casper in the Pioneer League, allowing 85 hits. He also posted a 2.70 GO/AO ratio. Scouts were impressed with his 90-92 MPH fastball, curveball, and changeup, although the secondary pitches were erratic and needed to be sharpened. I had one of those good intuitive feelings about him when I wrote the 2008 book, and I gave him a big SLEEPER ALERT! header in his book comment, rating him as a Grade C+ pending higher level data, but a breakthrough candidate.

Said breakthrough is in progress Chacin went 10-1, 1.86 for Asheville this spring, with a 98/30 K/BB in 111 innings, just 82 hits and three homers allowed, and a 2.83 GO/AO. He was just promoted to Modesto in the Cal League and threw eight shutout innings in his first start, fanning eight with one walk and five hits given up. His velocity has picked up further, his breaking stuff is reportedly sharper this year, his changeup is outstanding, he's still getting tons of grounders, and his command has been solid.

Gradewise I am moving him up a full rating to Grade B+ and would definitely put him in my Top 50 Pitchers list, although I don't know exactly where yet. The combination of a fairly high strikeout rate, lots of grounders, and improving stuff stands out. He's also just 20 years old. About the only negative in his profile I can see is his size: he's a smallish guy at 6-1, 180. Personally I don't care about that, but some scouts worry it could limit his long-term projectability. In theory it is harder for a shorter pitcher to pitch down in the zone, but it's obviously not a problem for Chacin.

He has to get through the injury nexus, of course. Lots of bad things could happen. But Chacin taken a huge step forward this year, and has to be rated among the best right-handed pitching prospects in the game now.

They don't get a lot of attention for it, but the Rockies seem to have a knack for finding power arms in Latin America.

Thinking About Luke Hochevar

John Sickels — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 23:15:51 -0000

A quick take on Luke Hochevar.

Last year Hochevar went 4-9, 4.86 with a 138/47 K/BB in 152 innings between Double-A Wichita and Triple-A Omaha, allowing 163 hits and a 0.88 GO/AO ratio. Scouts reported stuff that was consistently above average or plus, though the results did not always match the talent. He gave up 24 homers and seemed quite vulnerable to the gopher ball, elevating too many pitches especially when behind in the count.

For the Royals this year he is 5-6, 4.91 with a 50/39 K/BB in 84.1 innings, with 88 hits allowed. There is some typical deterioration you see in components as a player moves up a level, but of interest is a sharp difference in his GO/AO marks...1.74 this year in the majors. He's given up eight homers, a far cry from his home run pace last year. The numbers confirm the scouting reports and what I see on TV: he's doing a much better job keeping the ball down this year.

He still has some work to do, lowering his walk rate and improving his consistency and command within the strike zone. Left-handed hitters chew him up (.332/.394/.527) and he needs another weapon and/or sharper command against them. He throttles right-handed hitters effectively at .223/.309/.312. Month-to-month performance can be somewhat misleading given the sample sizes involved, but he has gotten better as the season progressed, lowering his ERAs (5.91, 4.71, 4.02 April through June) with gradual improvement in the components, a lower walk rate in June being notable.

In short, Hochevar is coming along. He's not a terrific pitcher yet, but he is making progress. I can see him easily developing into a solid number three, inning-eating ground ball getter. If he sharpens his command and boosts his strikeout rate, he could be a number two guy.

Family News

John Sickels — Sat, 28 Jun 2008 14:29:23 -0000

Jeri's brother Jack is missing...his car has been found in a creek and he may have been taken away by a flash flood. No further details at this time. Blogging will be intermittent for awhile.

Thoughts and prayers for the family are appreciated. Thanks.

The Jackson and Sickels families.

Mike Pelfrey Update

John Sickels — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 18:57:38 -0000

Time for another look at Mike Pelfrey, who was supposed to be a big ace by now.

On the surface he's made progress this year. His breaking stuff appears a bit crisper, at least on TV, and there are rumors that the Mets are going to give him his curveball back. HIs ERA this year is 4.30, much better than the 5.57 mark he posted in '07. He continues to get plenty of ground balls, and in general Mets observers who have seen him much more than I have say he's made genuine strides improving his confidence in particular.

But on the other hand there are still some warning signs in the numbers. His K/BB ratio hasn't improved at all, a slight reduction in the walk rate being balanced by a slight reduction in strikeouts. Even the hit rate isn't much different, and a lot of the ERA difference could just be luck. He's doing great at home in Shea, 3.06 ERA with 32/18 K/BB in 50 innings. But he's been awful on the road, 6.25 ERA with 11/19 K/BB in 32 innings. Lefties are crushing him to a .350/.433/.524 tune, likely an indication that he still needs another weapon against them.

Since he is a Midwest guy and a Wichita State product, I am pre-disposed to like Mike Pelfrey. I think he was rushed to the majors, wasn't handled well, and is still suffering from that. I continue to root for him, but I have to admit that I am not convinced he has turned a corner, better scouting reports or not. The splits are full of red flags, and I suspect that unless those improve, his ERA is going to be rising as the summer progresses.

Schedule

John Sickels — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 02:15:38 -0000

Friday: Mike Pelfrey Update
Saturday: Luke Hochevar Update
Sunday/Monday: Jhoulys Chacin
Tuesday: Jaime Garcia
Wednesday: Alderson and Bumgarner

Off-Topic Video Timewaster

John Sickels — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 15:14:35 -0000

As a coffee lover, Beavis and Butthead fan, and resident of a hippie college town, I appreciate this video a lot:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=viO4VecyJAE

Work-safe but keep the volume down.

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Work-safe but keep the volume down.

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Work-safe but keep the volume down.

filler filler filler filler filler filler

Work-safe but keep the volume down.

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