SB Nation User Blog: John Sickels

Hit and Run, July 6, 2009

John Sickels — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 16:49:21 -0000

Hit and Run, July 6, 2009

**I'm here in Burlington, Iowa. Being a complete idiot I forgot to bring my radar gun, as well as the camera cord so I can hook it up to the computer, charge the camera, and get some video. The radar thing isn't a big deal, as I can get the readings from scouts nearby, but not having the camera operational really bugs me. I will have a full report on what I see at the end of the week.

**One player I'm paying close attention to is Eric Hosmer, hitting a disappointing .249/.352/.367 this year for Burlington. Watching him play yesterday, I was very impressed with his selectivity....indeed, he drew three walks....he has a really good eye at the plate and doesn't swing at bad stuff. He is also a very sharp-looking defensive first baseman. As a runner, he is slow, but heady and alert, fundamentally sound and rather aggressive. Of course, none of that will matter if he doesn't hit, and my initial impression of his bat (other than his strike zone judgment) was negative. His bat speed look poor to me. I discussed this with a veteran scout, who told me that Hosmer has developed some mechanical issues with his swing that are short-circuiting his power production and reducing his bat speed. The scout believed that his problems are fixable, and praised the other portions of his game. For sake of Hosmer and the Royals, I hope that's true. It was just one game, but teammate Jason Taylor and Wisconsin prospect Brett Lawrie both showed much quicker bats yesterday. We'll see how things go the next two days.

**As you probably know, the Rangers have promoted Justin Smoak to Triple-A Oklahoma, where he's gone 1-for-5 with two walks in his first two games. He'd hit .328/.449/.481 in 50 games for Double-A Frisco. Now it looks like I'll have to head back to Oklahoma City in early August to take a good look at him. Was it a mistake for the Royals to prefer Hosmer over Smoak in the 2008 draft?

**Scott Barnes at Class A San Jose has a 1.09 ERA with a 34/6 K/BB ratio in his last four starts covering 24.2 innings, including 18 strikeouts with just two walks in his last 12 frames of work. He is now 8-3, 3.16 with a 75/25 K/BB in 74 innings, 61 hits allowed, on the season, impressive numbers for the Cal League. Barnes was an 8^th round pick in 2008 out of St. John's, though he was considered a second round or third round talent until he had an erratic junior year. He has an 88-92 MPH fastball, a good breaking ball, and an excellent changeup. Although overshadowed by other pitchers in the Giants system, Barnes is worthy of your attention and could be in Double-A soon.

**2007 White Sox second rounder Nevin Griffith blew out his elbow and had Tommy John surgery about year ago, but is now back in action. He made two starts in June for Bristol in the Appy League, and while the numbers weren't great (nine innings, 10 hits, seven runs, 7/7 K/BB), he threw well enough that the White Sox promoted him to the Sally League to begin July. He started for Kannapolis on July 3^rd, throwing five innings and allowing two runs on five hits. Griffith is still a raw arm, but at his best he has a 90-95 MPH sinking fastball and shows a promising, if erratic, curveball. He has dropped his slider to reduce strain on the elbow, focusing on the curve and changeup as his secondary pitches.

**Remember how good Todd Walker was in college?

Sunday Discussion: You're the GM! Oakland Athletics Edition

John Sickels — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 19:52:39 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Chiu - AP

4 days ago: Oakland Athletics' Bobby Crosby, left, celebrates with teammate Mark Ellis after defeating the Detroit Tigers in a baseball game on Wednesday, July 1, 2009, in Oakland, Calif. The Athletics won 5-1. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)

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You wake up today and find that you have replaced Billy Beane as GM of the Oakland Athletics.

So, what do you do with the young pitching staff? How much slack are you going to give Gio Gonzalez? What do you see for the development of Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson?

Even if you like the pitching, what do you do about the hitting? Is there something wrong with the way the organization has approached the development of hitting prospects in recent years? Is there any hope for Daric Barton?

Independence Day

John Sickels — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 19:50:31 -0000

Everyone have a safe and enjoyable holiday! Spend some time with your loved ones, enjoy the fireworks, and be careful on the roads!

Use this as an open discussion thread. I will have a formal discussion question for you tomorrow, then on Monday we will return to normal coverage and I'll have some good content for you from Burlington.

Not a Rookie: Brad Bergesen

John Sickels — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 19:19:30 -0000

More photos » by Steve Ruark - AP

21 days ago: Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Brad Bergesen delivers a pitch during the second inning of a baseball game against the Atlanta Braves Sunday, June 14, 2009, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Steve Ruark)

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Not a Rookie: Brad Bergesen

Brad Bergesen was drafted by the Orioles in the fourth round in 2004, out of high school in Foothill, California. He showed a 90-95 MPH fastball in high school, but his secondary pitches and command needed a lot of work, and he needed to be bought away from the University of San Diego. The Orioles did so, then sent him to the Appy League for his pro debut. He pitched six relief innings, allowing five runs but fanning six with three walks. I put him in the 2005 book as a Grade C prospect, noting his arm strength but also his need for polish and experience.

Bergesen moved up to the New York-Penn League for 2005, going 1-3, 4.82 with a 54/14 K/BB in 71 innings, 89 hits allowed. His walk rate as low, but otherwise his performance was unimpressive. I rated him as a Grade C arm but did not put him in the 2006 book due to space reasons. There are a lot of guys in A-ball like this at any one time, and he didn't stand out statistically or scouting-wise.

Promoted to the Sally League in 2006, Bergesen went 5-4, 4.27 with a 49/10 K/BB in 86 innings, allowing 97 hits. Again, his walk rate was very low, but the K/IP and hit rates were not impressive. He was showing he could throw strikes with his sinker, but his secondary pitches remained substandard. Still a Grade C.

Bergesen began 2007 with Delmarva again, going 7-3, 2.19 with a 73/17 K/BB in 94 innings, 75 hits allowed. Scouts reported he still had the excellent command, and his strikeout rate and hit rates were improved due to a better changeup and slider. However, he went backwards after being moved to the Carolina League, going 3-6, 5.75 in 10 starts with a 35/9 K/BB in 56 innings, 78 hits allowed. Again, the control was there, but the strikeouts and hits slipped again. I still had him as a Grade C.

The turnaround came in 2008. He began at Frederick, posting a 2.08 ERA in 17 innings with a 15/6 K/BB. Promoted to Double-A, he showed that the improvements with his slider and changeup were for real, going 15-6, 3.22 with a 72/27 K/BB in 148 innings, 143 hits. The strikeout rate was still low, but scouting reports were positive.

In the book this year, I wrote that Bergesen's margin for error wasn't great, but "he has a shot at developing into a workhorse inning-eater. . .with some potential to pull a Nick Blackburn on us." I gave him a Grade C+ this year.

Bergesen is indeed pulling a Nick Blackburn, being 5-2, 3.53 in 14 starts for the Orioles, with a 46/19 K/BB in 92 innings, 87 hits allowed.These ratios are extremely similar to what Blackburn did in his surprise season for the Twins last year:

Bergesen 2009 4.5 K/9 1.9 BB/9 8.5 H/9 1.16 WHIP 3.53 ERA
Blackburn 2008 4.5 K/9 1.8 BB/9 10.4 H/9 1.36 WHIP 4.05 ERA

The difference so far is that Bergesen has a lower hit rate this year compared to Blackburn's last year, but everything else is a carbon copy.

Scouting-wise, Blackburn and Bergesen aren't exactly identical, as their pitch/fx data shows: Here is Bergesen pitch/fx Here is Blackburn. Their fastballs has similar movement but their other pitches work differently and they use different areas of the strike zone.

Physicall, Blackburn is two inches taller and throws harder, his fastball averaging 91 MPH as opposed to 89 for Bergesen. Bergesen gets more grounders and has a lower home run allowed rate so far in his career. I still believe that both pitchers have to prove they can succeed consistently; their strikeout rates still concern me as a long-term indicator.

All that said, Bergesen has done very well this year, and as long as he remains healthy he can be an effective strike-throwing inning-eater, a good example of how a pitcher without piles of press clippings and a 97 MPH fastball can sneak up on us if he has a feel for his craft. And the statistical parallel to what Blackburn did last year is uncanny. My psychic powers must have been working well when I wrote that comment.

Hit and Run, July 2nd, 2009

John Sickels — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 00:01:38 -0000

Hit and Run, July 2, 2009

**I'm going to start using the Hit-And-Runs to update player grades when appropriate.

**Indians prospect Nick Weglarz got off to a terrible start at Double-A Akron this spring, hitting .089/.243/.143 in April. However, he turned that around with a .329/.431/.624 May and a .281/.434/.573 June, giving him a current line of .248/.381/.479. Another notable part of Weglarz's profile is a reverse platoon split: .276/.415/.539 against lefties (he's a lefty hitter) but just .234/.364/.449 against right-handers. He's also got a sharp home/road split, .269/.407/.529 at home but just .226/.353/.428 in the rest of the Eastern League. Weglarz has always had strong plate discipline (71/78 BB/K last year, 47/54 so far this year) but he's never quite broken out with the big season that scouts have projected. He's hitting .298/.432/.606 since May 1^st. . .is the breakout now in progress? It looks possible, but I'm always leery of arguments that begin with "if you take Month X out of the numbers"....the slump counts too. Book Grade was B-, will stick with that.

**He missed much of June with injury, and Jason Heyward hasn't hit quite as well since returning to action at Myrtle Beach, hitting .283 with a .391 SLG since coming off the DL. His season line is still very strong at .292/.367/.519 with 10 homers, but his power production has dropped noticeably since he came back. The 11-game sample size is miniscule, but we need to monitor his power output over the coming weeks to see if it's a random blip or a trend. His plate discipline has remained very strong, so I'm not worried about his approach or his long-term outlook as a prospect. Book grade was A-, will stick with that.

**On the other hand, I am starting to get concerned about Pedro Alvarez. Since moving up to Double-A Altoona, he's 3-for-25 (.120) with one walk and ten strikeouts. All three of his hits have been for extra bases (a double and two homers), but his plate discipline has been terrible. Is he just pressing, or is it finally time to conclude that there is something seriously wrong with him? He hit .247/.342/.486 at Lynchburg, with an impressive 14 homers and 37 walks in 243 at-bats, but he also struck out 70 times in 66 games. Power and patience were his two positives in the Carolina League. If he loses the patience against advanced pitching. . .well, that's obviously not what the Pirates are looking for. It is still way too early to panic here. . .the samples involved are too small. But he obviously needs to make adjustments, and the fact is indisputable that Alvarez has not lived up to his full potential since hurting his wrist at Vanderbilt last spring. And that's just the bat; Carolina League observers I've spoken with are pretty convinced that he'll have to move to first base, increasing the pressure on his bat. Book grade was A-, and I'm reducing that to B+. Further reductions are possible if he doesn't get the bat going by the end of the year.

**Tim Beckham is hitting .283/.342/.417 for Bowling Green, not exceptional performance but not bad. He needs to improve his plate discipline, as his 21/63 BB/K in 284 at-bats isn't particularly good. However, overall he's made progress since his mediocre hitting performance last year in the Appalachian League. Defense is another issue; his range and arm strength are reportedly very impressive, but he's made 27 errors in 60 games and has to improve on his .907 fielding percentage going forward. Given his age, the range and arm strength are more important than the reliability, which should improve in time. All told, Beckham is holding his own, but I expect the Rays will be conservative about promoting him, which makes perfect sense to me. Sticking with the book Grade B+ for now.

**I am planning a trip to Burlington, Iowa, next week, to take a good look at Eric Hosmer, the young Royals pitching, and Brett Lawrie of Wisconsin. Another Midwest League trip should follow the week after that, then I'll swing south again to the Texas League and/or PCL. I intend to be on the road a lot in August. As always, travel commitments are dependent on outside factors, so I have to keep plans loose, but the Burlington thing looks firm.

Prospect Retro: Brian Bannister

John Sickels — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 20:23:02 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

about 1 month ago: Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Brian Bannister delivers during the second inning of a baseball game against the Seattle Mariners, Thursday, May 7, 2009, in Kansas City, Mo. Kansas City won the game 3-1. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

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Prospect Retro: Brian Bannister

Brian Bannister was drafted by the New York Mets in the seventh round in 2003, out of Southern Cal. He was successful in college and well-known to scouts due to his family background, being the son of Floyd Bannister, the David Price of 1976. Floyd was a decent pitcher who never quite lived up to expectations. His son didn't have the same kind of arm strength, but Brian was considered extremely polished. He pitched well in the New York-Penn League after signing, posting a 2.15 ERA with a 42/18 K/BB in 46 innings and allowing just 27 hits. I gave him a Grade C+ in the 2004 book, noting his strong curveball and feel for pitching but also noting his mediocre fastball.

Bannister began 2004 with St. Lucie in the Florida State League, going 5-7, 4.32 with a 106/27 K/BB in 110 innings, allowing 111 hits. He held his own after a late promotion to Double-A, going 3-3, 4.06 in eight starts with a 28/17 K/BB in 44 innings, 45 hits allowed. Note how his strikeout rate dropped at the higher level. Despite this I gave him another Grade C+, projecting him as a useful fifth starter or long reliever.

Bannister began '05 in Double-A and made adjustments, going 9-4, 2.56 with a 94/27 K/BB in 109 innings with 91 hits allowed. Logically promoted to Triple-A, he continued to perform well with a 4-1, 3.18 mark in eight starts with a 48/13 K/BB in 45 innings, 48 hits. His strikeout rate was moving upward, and he was now getting attention as a sleeper prospect in the baseball press. I continued to rate him as a Grade C+ prospect and future inning-eater.

Bannister began 2006 in the Mets rotation after a strong spring training. A pulled hamstring sent him back to the minors and he ended up splitting the season between the Mets (38 innings, 4.26 ERA, 19/22 K/BB), Triple-A Norfolk (30 innings, 24/5 K/BB, 3.56 ERA) and St. Lucie (two starts). The Mets gave up on him at that point and shipped him to Kansas City for a better arm, Ambiorix Burgos. Remember him?

Burgos had a better arm, but Bannister was the better pitcher. He went 12-9, 3.87 with a 77/44 K/BB in 165 innings for the Royals in '07, allowing 156 hits and being one of the best rookie pitchers in the game. Statheads, however, were frightened of his very low strikeout rate, warning that he was likely to go backwards in '08.

Bannister, however, is a stathead himself and was well aware of the fact that strikeouts indicate potential for future success. He adjusted his approach in '08, and indeed he did strike out more guys last year, posting a 113/58 K/BB in 183 innings and increasing his K/9 from 4.2 to 5.6. However, it didn't help the results: his ERA jumped to 5.76 and he went 9-16. The main difference was a sharp increase in his hit rate (10.6 H/9 vs. 8.5 in '07) and more home runs given up.

Did Bannister just have bad luck on balls in play last year, or was the league genuinely catching up to him? From watching him pitch a lot, I think it was a combination of both factors, actually. . .he had worse luck, but he also seemed to hang more pitches high in the strike zone at bad times. He seems to have turned things around this year, 4.17 ERA with a 47/25 k/BB in 78 innings, 78 hits allowed. His WHIP is 1.33, compared to 1.21 in '07 and 1.49 last year, right in between. His K/9 is 5.42, not quite as high as last year but better than '07.

Because he doesn't have plus velocity, Bannister will live on the margins, but his intellect and feel for pitching give him an edge in adaptability and survival. As a minor leaguer, he showed the same ability to adapt that he's shown in the majors. While I don't think he's going to have a hugely successful career, he could be an average starter and eat innings for several years, and that has value.

Tuesday Discussion: You're the GM! Baltimore Orioles

John Sickels — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 17:50:51 -0000

More photos » by Nick Wass - AP

6 days ago: Baltimore Orioles center fielder Adam Jones (10) and right fielder Nick Markakis (21) leap in vain for a two-run home run hit by Boston Red Sox's J.D. Drew during the fourth inning of a baseball game Monday, June 29, 2009, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)

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You wake up this morning and discovered that you were no longer GM of the Indians, but are now GM of the Orioles. You have a team with some young talent, and your farm system is in pretty decent shape....but you are in a very tough division. How do you handle your current roster, and what do you do to challenge the rest of this highly-competitive division?

Tuesday Radio

John Sickels — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 14:19:24 -0000

Pink Floyd - Comfortably Numb - Live 8 (via oatzy)

Join me at 11 am CDT with Rotowire's Jeff Erickson at BlogTalkRadio.

Hit and Run, June 29, 2009

John Sickels — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 15:49:38 -0000

Hit and Run, June 29, 2009

**When the Astros drafted Jordan Lyles in the supplemental first round in '08, a lot of people said "huh?" as he didn't get much pre-draft hype. Most scouts saw him as a projectable but raw high school arm with signability issues, expected to attend the University of South Carolina. But the Astros had a good read on his signability, and he impressed them greatly in a pre-draft workout. It certainly looks like an inspired pick right now, as Lyles has been excellent in the Sally League so far: 3.27 ERA, 103/18 K/BB in 83 innings, 75 hits allowed. He threw 86-89 MPH in high school, but has his heater well into the 90s now, has improved his curveball and changeup, and is showing considerable polish. All the standard caveats apply of course. . .can he stay healthy, etc., but right now Lyles is one of the top pitching prospects in A-ball, and a good bit of scouting by the Astros.

**A second round pick out of Howard JC in 2008, Twins prospect Tyler Ladendorf was a major disappointment in rookie ball, hitting just .204/.308/.293 for the GCL Twins last summer. He did steal six bases in six attempts and flash the tools to remain at shortstop, but he didn't nearly hit as well as expected after a superstar spring campaign. So far, 2009 has been different. He's 8-for-19 (.421) with a double and two homers in his first six games for the Elizabethton Twins, with six walks and just one strikeout. Yes, yes, small sample size. This could turn on a dime. But he's already exceeded his home run output from last year, and is controlling the strike zone extremely well. My guess is that he'll continue to play very well in the Appy League and move up to Beloit in August, at which time we'll get a better read on how much progress is for real.

**Ike Davis Update: Davis found his power stroke in May at St. Lucie, bringing his numbers there up to .288/.376/.486, very nice numbers for the Florida State League. Promoted to Double-A last week, he's hitting .400/.538/.550 through six games at Binghamton. He's 8-for-20 with three doubles, five strikeouts, and six walks so far. The fact that he's maintained the walk rate at the higher level is a good sign. He will likely need some consolidation time at this level and if I were the Mets I wouldn't consider a promotion to Triple-A until August at the earliest, if he's hitting well. Nevertheless, he's exceeded the expectations I had for him in the book and has calmed concerns about his bat.

**Jeremy Hefner was a fifth round pick in 2007 out of Oral Roberts by the Padres. Quoting from the 2009 book: "He has a solid low-90s fastball, and a curveball, slider, and changeup that all rate as, well, solid. His command is solid, and he has a solid pitcher's build. See a theme here? He's solid." So far his performance has been, pardon the expression, solid. He's 7-6, 4.01 in 14 starts for Lake Elsinore in the Cal League, with an 80/17 K/BB in 74 innings, 86 hits allowed. I'll forgive the hit rate given the environment and his excellent other numbers. He made an emergency start for Triple-A Portland earlier this month and pitched 5.1 innings, allowing two runs on seven hits, with five strikeouts. I expect he'll see Double-A later this spring and we'll get a read on his solidness against Texas League competition then.

**Michael Montgomery and Tim Melville at Class A Burlington are symptomatic of the increased investments the Royals have made in the draft the last two years. Since being activated in May, Montgomery has been more impressive: 1.93 ERA with a 35/15 K/BB in 37 innings, just 26 hits allowed and a 2.04 GO/AO. Melville has a 4.00 mark with a 25/15 K/BB in 36 innings, 36 hits allowed. Reports from Midwest League observers back up what you'd expect from these numbers, Montgomery is showing better stuff than Melville at this point, even though Melville had more pre-draft hype in '08. I'm going to get to Burlington in July and hope to see both in action.

**The Vin Mazzaro stuff is getting old, guys. It's too early to tell anything about him either way yet. Let's see how he looks after 15 starts.

**Off-Topic: My favorite domestic car brand is Buick, a fact for which my less stodgy friends tease me constantly. My least-favorite domestic car brand is Chrysler. I have a love/hate deal with Fords....my college car was a Mustang II, which constantly broke down but looked cool. For imports, I like Toyota (our ‘00 Sienna is super reliable) and have always, for some reason, been partial to Mitsubishi. I don't like BMWs or other German cars.

**Favorite Neil Young songs: "Cortez the Killer," "Like a Hurricane," "Broken Arrow," "Down to the Wire," "A Man Needs a Maid," "Campaigner," and "After the Gold Rush."

Sunday Discussion: You're the GM! Cleveland Indians Edition

John Sickels — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 15:38:04 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

9 days ago: Cleveland Indians' Victor Martinez hits a solo home run off Cincinnati Reds pitcher Aaron Harang in the fifth inning in a baseball game, Friday, June 26, 2009, in Cleveland. Reds catcher Ramon Hernandez watches. (AP Photo/Tony Dejak)

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You woke up this morning and found that you are now GM of the Cleveland Indians.

You have the worst record in the American League, though your run differential is not that horrid at -20. . .that's not good, but mathematicallly you don't deserve to have the worst record. What do you do to turn things around, in both the short run and the long run?