SB Nation User Blog: John Sickels

Heading To Arizona

John Sickels — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 02:41:01 -0000

We'll I'm leaving at 6 am tomorrow for Arizona. First destination target: Amarillo, TX, tomorrow evening.

Jeri will keep you entertained while I'm on the road, and I'll chime in once I get there.

Next Team Poll

John Sickels — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 19:14:10 -0000

After I do the Nationals and Angels, I'll switch to a National League West team. I thought about doing the Diamondbacks or Rockies just to be contrary, but most of you seem interested in either the Giants or Padres. I'll do a poll on this one.

Note that my Arizona trip is going to slow down the writing considerably, and it won't accelerate again until about November 15th or so. After that things will pick up quickly as i incorporate Arizona Fall League data and get into the proper writing frame of mind.

Poll

What team should John write up after he does the Nationals and Angels?

Los Angeles Angels Farm System Discussion

John Sickels — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 19:09:14 -0000

I'm now working on the Washington Nationals. The next team in the queue is the Los Angeles Angels, so use this thread to discuss the Angels farm system.

I'm driving to Arizona this week to take in some Fall League games and take part in the Baseball HQ First Pitch Arizona Fall League Forum.

Top 20 Kansas City Royals Prospects for 2010

John Sickels — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 03:03:15 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Kansas City Royals first baseman Billy Butler, 2004 First Round Draft Pick (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

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Top 20 Kansas City Royals Prospects for 2010.

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get beyond the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize.

Feel free to critique the list, but use logic and reason rather than polemics to do so. The list and grades are based on a blending of present performance and long-term potential. Full reports on all these players can be found in the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book.

1) Mike Montgomery, LHP, Grade B+: Looks like the best combination of projection and performance in the organization.

2) Mike Moustakas, 3B, Grade B+: Trying to decide between a Grade B+ and a straight B for this one. I'm willing to cut him some slack for one more season. He could do much better out of Wilmington.

3) Aaron Crow, RHP, Grade B: Want to see some actual pro data before going higher with the grade, but I like him a lot and he shouldn't need a lot of development time.

4) Tim Melville, RHP, Grade B: Needs to sharpen up his command a bit, but projects as a number two starter if everything comes together and he stays healthy.

5) Danny Duffy, LHP, Grade B: I like him a lot, too, although I don't think he has quite as much projection as Melville. Crow, Melville, and Duffy could rank 3-4-5 in any order.

6) Wil Myers, C, Grade B: Love the bat, not sure about the defense. Need more pro data before going higher with the grade.

7) Eric Hosmer, 1B, Grade B-: A difficult grade. Will the lasik surgery fix whatever was bothering him in '09? If so, could vault back to the top of the list.

8) Carlos Rosa, RHP, Grade B-: His numbers at Omaha are better than they look, and he has the arm strength to be a solid reliever.

9) David Lough, OF, Grade B-: Borderline C+. Good tools, started to put things together this year, but turns 24 in January and I wish he walked more.

10) Jordan Parraz, OF, Grade B-: Borderline C+. Good tools, really exploded this year, but injury problems and age (now 25) limit his grade.

11) John Lamb, LHP, Grade B-: Borderline C+. Has the natural ability to develop as Montgomery and Duffy have, but I'd like some higher level data.

12) Jeff Bianchi, SS-2B, Grade C+: I wish he drew more walks, but you have to respect how he fought back from injuries.

13) Chris Dwyer, LHP, Grade C+: Has great stuff, but the results weren't always there in college and pro data set (while small) shows command problems.

14) Kila Ka'aihue, 1B, Grade C+: Couldn't repeat 2008 monster season, but high walk rate and moderate power are still there. I don't understand why he wasn't promoted in September. Born DH.

15) Johnny Giavotella, 2B, Grade C+: Hampered by unlucky BABIP early in the year, but finished strong. Breakout candidate for 2010 in the Texas League. Shaky defense is an issue.

16) Louis Coleman, RHP, Grade C+: LSU product looks like a really sharp reliever to me; could rise very quickly.

17) Tyler Sample, RHP, Grade C+: Another young high-ceiling arm. Command is a question.

18) Tim Smith, OF, Grade C+: Scouts don't like his tools and he's not a huge power guy, but he seems to hit .300 everywhere he goes.

19) Cole White, RHP, Grade C+: Sleeper relief arm from 2009 draft, could advance rapidly along with Coleman.

20) Blake Wood, RHP, Grade C: Terrific arm but command and injury problems hold him back. Interchangeable with most of the guys in the "other" category.

Others (All Grade C right now): Juan Abreu, RHP; Eric Basturto, RHP; Yowill Espinal, SS: Carlos Fortuna, RHP; Blaine Hardy, LHP; Keaton Hayenga, RHP; Chris "Disco" Hayes, RHP; Kelvin Herrera, RHP; Greg Holland, RHP; Dusty Hughes, LHP; Patrick Keating, RHP; Alex Llanos, OF; Chris Nicoll, RHP; Dusty Odenbach, RHP; Salvador Perez, C; Manuel Pina, C; Clint Robinson, 1B: Derrick Robinson, OF; Brandon Sisk, LHP; Nick Van Stratten, OF.

The Royals have a lot of extremely interesting pitching in the organization, with Montgomery, Melville, Crow, Duffy, Lamb, Dwyer, Sample, and Wood all having sufficient arm strength and/or command to be dominant pitchers, IF they stay healthy and develop along the expected path. They also have a lot of potentially useful relief arms, with Rosa ready to help next year, and several arms from the '09 class (Coleman most notably) who could move quickly.

Things are much different on the hitting side. Moustakas and Hosmer were big disappointments this year. Both of them are still young, and both of them had some possibly-extenuating circumstances. But the fact remains that both of them are corner players who didn't hit as well as expected and have a lot to prove in 2010. I cut Moustakas some slack on the grade because he did hit well in 2008, but graded Hosmer a bit more roughly because he hasn't done much at all in pro ball yet. Both could move up or down rather radically in 2010. Myers looks really interesting but we need to see more at higher levels. Lough and Parraz are both late-developing toolsy outfielders who may or may not sustain their progress. Bianchi and Giavotella in the middle infield also have question marks. . are they utility players or possible starters? We don't know yet. Kila looks blocked and probably needs a change of scenery.

Overall this is a system that is very thin at the upper levels, but has an intriguing group of potential impact talents lower in the organization. But I emphasize the word potential: there is a big group that has to turn projection into performance next year.

Update

John Sickels — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 14:55:36 -0000

I'm working on the Royals and hope to have them done tonight or tomorrow. The next team after that is the Nationals, followed by the Los Angeles Angels. Note that I try to keep things balanced geographically as I work through the teams. When the Royals and Nationals are done, that will give us two central teams and two eastern teams finished, so it will be time to fill in some western clubs. After the Angels I'll do either the Padres or the Giants...I'll probably put up a poll to help me decide.

Now Taking Pre-Orders for The 2010 Baseball Prospect Book

John Sickels — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 15:41:18 -0000

As most of you know, I'm now working on the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book.

The book will contain reports on at least 1,100 players from all 30 minor league systems,and possibly as many as 1,200. It also includes my 50/50 Prospect List.

We are now taking PRE-ORDERS for the book. It will ship on February 2nd, 2010, but we need as many pre-orders as possible to finance publication.

The book is only available directly from me at www.johnsickels.net. You can use paypal to order the book directly from the website, or you can send a check to my address

John Sickels Baseball Prospect Book 2010
PO BOX 4066
Lawrence, KS 66049

Paypal is more convenient for many folks, but checks are just fine and we don't get whacked with a paypal fee for checks.

The book costs $23.95+$6 shipping for United States orders, and $23.95+$13.00 shipping for Canadian and International Orders. If using the website to order, please make sure you click the right button.

I'll be posting excerpts from the book as i get further along in the writing process. Those of you who have read the book before know that I use a blend of statistical analysis and scouting, and I try to make the book as entertaining as possible to read. The book is the center of my work, with the blog here and my writing for Rotowire being adjuncts to it.

Thanks for ordering!! I hope you enjoy it.

Washington Nationals Farm System Discussion

John Sickels — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 15:19:02 -0000

I'm working on the Royals right now. Use this thread to discuss the Washington Nationals farm system.

Strasburg...does he get a straight Grade A? Or should I go with A- until we get more evidence?

Comparing the Phillies and the Yankees

John Sickels — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 18:54:19 -0000

Here is a comparison of the Philadelphia and New York World Series rosters:

Phillies Roster Breakdown: 25 Players
Acquired by Trades or Waivers: 8 (32%)
Phillies Farm System Products: 8 (32%)
Major League Free Agents: 8 (32%)
Rule 5: 1 (4%.)

Yankees Roster Breakdown: 25 players
Acquired by Trades or Waivers: 7 (28%)
Yankees Farm System Products: 12 (48%)
Major League Free Agents: 6 (24%)
Rule 5: 0.

Phillies Origins Breakdown:
North American High School Draftees: 6   (24%)
Junior College Draftees:   2    (8%)
Four-Year College Draftees:   9   (36%)
Undrafted North Americans:   2   (8%)
Latin Free Agents: 5   (20%)
Asian Free Agents: 1   (4%)

Yankees Origin Breakdown:
North American High School Draftees: 9 (36%)
Junior College Draftees: 2 (8%)
Four Year College Draftees: 6 (24%)
Undrafted North Americans: 0
Latin Free Agents: 7 (28%)
Asian Free Agents: 1 (4%)

The current Phillies roster was constructed one-third via trade, one-third via the farm system, and one-third via major league free agents. The Yankees, in contrast, have almost half of the current roster (48%) developed via the farm system, with the other 52% by trade or free agent. If you want to count Andy Pettitte as a farm system product, flip those two numbers. I would note that farm products Jeter, Rivera, and Posada were developed by the system in the 1990s, a long time ago, but that important bullpen components of the pitching staff such as Chamberlain, Hughes, Coke, and Robertson are recent products.

In terms of ultimate origin, the Phillies roster is more college-oriented than the Yankees roster. The Phllies have five former first round picks (Hamels, Werth,Blanton, Lidge, Utley) while the Yankees have six (Hughes, Sabathia, Jeter, Rodriguez, Swisher, Teixeira) plus two supplemental first round picks (Chamberlain, Damon). The lowest draft picks were Ibanez (36th round) and Gaudin (34th round).

Finally, combining both clubs to get the 50 players in the World Series this year,

Combining Both Rosters: 50 players
Acquired by Trades or Waivers: 15 (30%)
Developed by Farm Systems: 20 (40%)
Signed as Major League Free Agent: 14 (28%)
Rule 5: 1 (2%)

North American High School Draftees:   15 (30%)
Junior College Draftees:   4 (8%)
Four-Year College Draftees:   15 (30%)
Undrafted North Americans:   2 (4%)
Latin Free Agents: 12 (24%)
Asian Free Agents:   2   (4%)

Player Development Origins for the 2009 New York Yankees

John Sickels — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 17:16:06 -0000

More photos » by Wilfredo Lee - AP

Derek Jeter, New York Yankees first round draft pick in 1992. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)

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Here are the player development origins of the 2009 American League Champion New York Yankees. I'll do a comparison of the Yankees and Phillies tomorrow.

PITCHERS

Alfredo Aceves, RHP: Signed out of Mexico as a free agent in 2008.

A.J. Burnett, RHP: Drafted by the New York Mets in the eighth round out of high school in Little Rock, Arkansas, in 1995. The Yankees signed him as a major league free agent for 2009.

Joba Chamberlain, RHP: Drafted by the Yankees in the supplemental first round in 2006 from the University of Nebraska.

Phil Coke, LHP: Drafted by the Yankees in the 26^th round in 2002, out of San Joaquin Delta Community College.

Chad Gaudin, RHP: Drafted by the Tampa Bay Rays in the 34^th round in 2001, from high school in Harahan, Louisiana. The Yankees traded for him in the summer of 2009.

Phil Hughes, RHP: Drafted by the Yankees in the first round of the 2004 draft, from high school in Santa Ana, California.

Damaso Marte, LHP: Signed by the Seattle Mariners as a free agent from the Dominican Republic in 1992. Yankees acquired him in a 2008 trade.

Andy Pettitte, LHP: Drafted by the Yankees in the 22^nd round in 1991 out of high school in Texas, signed as a draft-and-follow from San Jacinto JC in '92. Went to Houston as a free agent in 2004 but re-signed by the Yankees for 2007.

Mariano Rivera, RHP: Signed by the Yankees as a free agent from Panama in 1990.

David Robertson, RHP: Drafted by the Yankees in the 17^th round in 2006, from the University of Alabama.

C.C. Sabathia, LHP: Drafted by the Cleveland Indians in the first round of the 1998 draft, out of high school in Vallejo, California. Signed by the Yankees as a major league free agent for 2009.

POSITION PLAYERS

Melky Cabrera, OF: Signed by the Yankees as a free agent from the Dominican Republic in 2001.

Robinson Cano, 2B: Signed by the Yankees as a free agent from the Dominican Republic in 2001.

Francisco Cervelli, C: Signed by the Yankees as a free agent out of Venezuela in 2004.

Johnny Damon, OF: Drafted by the Kansas City Royals in the supplemental first round in 1992, out of high school in Orlando, Florida. The Yankees signed him as a major league free agent in 2006.

Brett Gardner, OF: Drafted by the Yankees in the third round in 2005, from the College of Charleston.

Freddy Guzman, OF: Signed by the San Diego Padres as a free agent from the Dominican Republic in 2000. Acquired in a trade in late August 2009.

Jerry Hairston JR, INF: Drafted by the Baltimore Orioles in the 11^th round in 1997, from Southern Illinois University. Acquired by the Yankees in a trade in July 2009.

Derek Jeter, SS: Drafted by the Yankees in the first round in 1992, out of high school in Kalamazoo, Michigan.

Hideki Matsui, OF: Signed by the Yankees as a free agent from Japan in 2002. I am counting him as a "major league free agent" on the list below, not as a Yankee farm system product, since he was already an established star in Japan.

Jose Molina, C: Drafted by the Chicago Cubs in the 14^th round in 1993, from high school in Vega Alta, Puerto Rico. The Yankees acquired him in a trade from the Angels in 2007.

Jorge Posada, C: Drafted by the Yankees in the 24^th round in 1990, out of high school in Rio Piedras, Puerto Rico.

Alex Rodriguez, 3B: Drafted by the Seattle Mariners in the first round in 1993, out of high school in Miami, Florida. The Yankees acquired him in a trade with the Rangers in 2004.

Nick Swisher, OF: Drafted by the Oakland Athletics in the first round of the 2002 draft, from Ohio State University. Acquired in a trade with the White Sox in November 2008.

Mark Teixeira, 1B: Drafted by the Texas Rangers in the first round in 2001, from Georgia Tech. Signed by the Yankees as a free agent in December 2008.

ACQUISITIONS

Trades or Waivers: Gaudin, Marte, Guzman, Hairston, Molina, Rodriguez, Swisher.

Yankees Farm System Products: Aceves, Chamberlain, Coke, Hughes, Rivera, Robertson, Cabrera, Cano, Cervelli, Gardner, Jeter, Posada.

Major League Free Agents: Burnett, Pettitte, Sabathia, Damon, Matsui, Teixeira.

ORIGINS

Drafted from North American high schools: Burnett (8^th), Gaudin (34^th), Hughes (1^st), Sabathia (1^st), Damon (1-S), Jeter (1^st), Molina (14^th), Posada (24^th), Rodriguez (1^st),

Drafted from junior colleges: Coke (26^th), Pettitte (22^nd).

Drafted from four-year colleges: Chamberlain (1-S), Robertson (17^th), Gardner (3^rd), Hairston (11^th), Swisher (1^st), Teixeira (1^st).

Undrafted free agents from North America: none.

Latin Free Agents: Aceves, Marte, Rivera, Cabrera, Cano, Cervelli, Guzman,

Asian Free Agents: Matsui

Atlanta Braves Top 20 Prospects for 2010

John Sickels — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 21:33:40 -0000

Top 20 Atlanta Braves Prospects for 2010.

1) Jason Heyward, OF, Grade A: A complete prospect, perfect Five Tool/Seven Skill player.

2) Freddie Freeman, 1B, Grade B+: We'll have to see if the wrist injury cuts into his power development, but given his age he gets some slack.

3) Julio Teheran, RHP, Grade B: I still worry about his health and durability.

4) Randall Delgado, RHP, Grade B: A rare thing, an Atlanta pitching prospect that might be underrated. Usually Braves guys get too much hype.

5) Craig Kimbrel, RHP, Grade B: If his command holds up he can be a bullpen force.

6) Mike Minor, LHP, Grade B-: Borderline Grade B. Excellent pitchability with pretty good stuff. I hope I get to see him in Arizona Fall League.

7) Christian Bethancourt, C, Grade B-: Grade includes a lot of projection.

8) J.J. Hoover, RHP, Grade B-: A personal favorite. Need to see him at higher levels, but I love the K/IP and K/BB ratios.

9) Zeke Spruill, RHP, Grade B-: Younger and more projectable than Hoover, but I worry about his durability.

10) David Hale, RHP, Grade C+: Power arm from Princeton, another possible relief mainstay if the command is there.

11) Mycal Jones, SS, Grade C+: Good speed, strikeout rate is rather high, will he hit at higher levels?

12) Brett DeVall, LHP, Grade C+: Would rank higher if not for questions about health.

13) Cody Gearrin, RHP, Grade C+: Another possible bullpen reinforcement.

14) Adam Milligan, OF, Grade C+: Great numbers in his pro debut, scouting reports are mixed, poor BB/K ratio is a caution flag. Could rank as high as 11^th.

15) Jose Ortegano, LHP, Grade C+: Could fit as fifth starter or swingman.

16) Robinson Lopez, RHP, Grade C+: Good rookie ball arm, a long way from being ready but worth watching.

17) Luis Valdez, RHP, Grade C+: Older prospect, scouts don't love him, but has been great in the upper minors and could help in the pen. Might knock him down to a Grade C.

18) Edgar Osuna, LHP, Grade C: Numbers and scouting reports all slightly weaker than Ortegano's.

19) Scott Diamond, LHP, Grade C: Like Osuna and Ortegano, he could appear in the majors as soon as 2010. Doesn't have great stuff, but could be useful under the right circumstances.

20) Dimaster Delgado, LHP, Grade C: Good numbers in the Sally League, but another mediocre-stuff lefty according to the reports I have.

Others (all Grade C right now): Thomas Berryhill, RHP; Caleb Brewer, RHP; Erik Cordier, RHP; David Francis, RHP; Cory Harrilchak, OF; Ty'Relle Harris, RHP; Brandon Hicks, SS; Cody Johnson, OF; Jeff Lyman, RHP; Chris Masters, LHP, Brett Oberholtzer, LHP; Angelo Paulino, RHP; Cory Rasmus, RHP; Gerardo Rodriguez, 1B; Cole Rohrbaugh, LHP; Riann Spanjer-Furstenberg, 1B; Tyler Stovall, LHP; Richard Sullivan, LHP; Jacob Thompson, RHP; Matt Young, OF (might get cut due to space).

I ended up writing about 40 guys, but I have to say that I'm not overly impressed with this system. They have a near-certain superstar in Heyward, a good first base prospect in Freeman, and then a huge bunch of questionmarks. The lack of offensive talent beyond the two elite guys is very striking. I do not believe in Cody Johnson. I think the strikeouts are going to eat him alive.

Even the pitching, historically the strength of the system, strikes me as overrated compared to the "pitching factory" reputation. There are a whole bunch of projectable young arms at the lower levels, but even the best ones (Teheran, R. Delgado) still have a lot to prove. There is the raw material for a good bullpen here (Kimbrel, Gearrin, Hale), and Minor looks like a solid strike-thrower who will advance rapidly. I love Hoover but we really need to see him outside the Sally League. They'll probably get one usable pitcher out of the finesse lefty group (Ortegano, Osuna, Diamond, D. Delgado) but I don't know which one it will be. I also have no idea how to rank Rohrbaugh at this stage. You could interchange him with any of the last three.

This is only the second team I've done, so it will be interesting to see how they compare to other organizations and perhaps I'm being too hard on them. As always, I'm open to suggestions and discussion, and will to back and revisit the grades as I get further into the book process.