SB Nation User Blog: JohnCockToastin

Bengals Draft Analysis ('00 - '08)

JohnCockToastin — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 15:28:15 -0000

Since I/we were discussing draft analysis I thought I would post some thoughts I put together a few months back. Warning: this post is long. If you have A.D.D. or if you're one of the Jungle regulars who really just doesn't like me, read no further...

(March 2009)

In my esteemed investigation into the search for truth I went through every draft since 2000 and assigned a grade for every Bengal player drafted. To make this exercise simple yet fair, every player drafted was assigned one of four grades: Failure, Average, Good, or Excellent. The round a player was drafted in is irrelevant to the ranking. Thus the player either panned out, was average, or he didn’t pan out. I think all 4 grades generally speak for themselves but there are some caviats worth mentioning – especially when considering how I assigned grades to certain players. For example, a player who was assigned a grade of “Failure” could either be a player who played some significant time but played below standard (think Sean Brewer). A “Failure” could also have been a player who was drafted in the later rounds and perhaps just never got a chance to play (think Greg Brooks, Khalid Abdullah, etc). Or a player deemed a failure could be a guy who just never panned out due to injury or off field trouble (think most of 2005 and 2006 draft picks). Just keep in mind that “Failure” doesn’t only translate into: “Akili Smith.”

In any event however, it is also worth noting that a players grade is not given to him based off his draft position. For example, you can’t say a player is a “Failure” because he was taken near the top of the draft and he never fulfilled the expectation of being such a high draft choice. Justin Smith comes to mind here. He was a solid player. Maybe he wasn’t worth the #4 pick in the draft…but certainly not a failure. The same logic goes for a 6th or 7th round player picked late in the draft. You can’t call a guy an “Excellent” draft pick or player because he was picked late in the draft and had minor success (think Tab Perry). The point is to "try" and the take the subjectivity out of the equation.

Moving forward, a player I graded as average is/was a player who performed to NFL standards but never stood out. He might have had some success…but he certainly wasn’t a Pro Bowl or All-Pro player by any means. The guy was neither a standout nor was he a failure. He just seemed to fulfill a role. In reality, a team is always trying to find a replacement for a player in this category (Matt Schobel comes to mind in this category).

I rated players as “Good” if they performed above average during most of their tenure but they just never reached “Pro Bowl” type status. (Think Landon Johnson)

Players rated “Excellent” are players who well, are or were excellent. In order to be considered excellent I felt a player needed to be a Pro Bowl or All-Pro player. (Very few players drafted since 2000 made this category. Think Carson, Chad, TJ, and Rudi. That literally is it -- though the jury is hopefully still out on a few players picked recently.)\

Lastly, I did have one other variable that affected a players grade and that was his time spent with the team. As an example, you could claim Neil Rackers is an above average to pretty good kicker in the NFL. I however don’t think you will find one person in the city of Cincinnati who will tell you he was anything but a failure while he was here. Thus, that’s how he was rated. Same goes for a player like Peter Warrick. I feel Warrick would have earned a grade of “Good” as in '02 and '03 he put up some respectable numbers...but his career here only spanned a brief 4 year stint. Therefore, a 4 year career riddled by injury and mostly disappointment I think downgrades him to an “average” player. Had he played here for another year or two I think he would have been considered a “Good” player. Point being, a players length of time spent with the team factors into the equation.

(I will include the entire draft roster with my grades associated at the end so you can compare or judge how I graded the players)

DRAFT PICKS SINCE 2000:
*Include Supplemental Draft

(Total Excludes ’07 and ’08 since those years are virtually impossible to grade at this point)

Total Picks = 55

Failures          = 31 (56%)     ** 9 players from ’07-’08 look to fall into this category

Average
Players           = 11 (20%)     ** 5 players from ’07-’08 look to fall into this category

Good
Players           = 9 (16%)      ** 4 players from ’07-’08 look to fall into this category

Excellent
Players           = 4 (7%)        ** 0 players from ’07-’08 look to fall into this category

** If you use the same modeling to try and come up with the total figures using grades for the ’07 and ’08 players the percentages still turn out in the following manner:

Total                 = 73 Picks
Failures             = 55%
Average            = 22%
Good                = 18%
Excellent          = 5%

BEST YEAR:

-- 2001 (Justin Smith, Chad Johnson, Rudi Johnson, TJ Houshmandzadeh)

Honorable Mention:

-- ’03 (Palmer, Steinbach, J. Johnson, Kooistra)
-- ’06 (Joseph, Whitworth, Peko)
-- '09??

2000
Round Player Position Overall Grade

1st Peter Warrick WR Average

2nd Mark Roman CB Failure

3rd Ron Dugans WR Failure

4th Curtis Keaton RB Failure

5th Robert Bean CB Failure

6th Neil Rackers K Failure

7th Brad St. Louis LS Average

2001
Round Player Position Overall Grade

1st Justin Smith DE Good

2nd Chad Johnson WR Excellent

3rd Sean Brewer TE Failure

4th Rudi Johnson RB Excellent

5th Victor Leyva G Failure

6th Riall Johnson LB Failure

7th TJ Houshmandzadeh WR Excellent

2002
Round Player Position Overall Grade

1st Levi Jones T Good

2nd Lamont Thompson S Failure

3rd Matt Schoebel TE Average

4th Travis Dorsch P/K Failure

5th

6th Marquand Manuel S Failure

7th Joey Evans DE Failure

2003
Round Player Position Overall Grade

1st Carson Palmer QB Excellent

2nd Eric Steinbach G Good

3rd Kelly Washington WR Failure

4th Dennis Weathersby CB Failure
4th Jeremi Johnson FB Good

5th Khalid Abdullah LB Failure

6th Langston Moore DT Failure

7th Scoot Kooistra T Average
7th Elton Patterson DE Failure

2004
Round Player Position Overall Grade

1st Chris Perry RB Failure

2nd Keiwan Ratliff CB Failure

2nd Madieu Williams S Average

3rd Caleb Miller LB Average
3rd Landon Johnson LB Good

4th Matthias Askew DT Failure
4th Robert Geathers DE Good

4th Stacy Andrews T Good

5th                    Maurice Mann                        WR                  Failure
6th                    Greg Brooks                          WR                  Failure
7th                    Casey Bramlet                      QB                  Failure

2005
Round Player Position Overall Grade

1st David Pollack LB Failure

2nd O’Dell Thurman LB Failure

3rd Chris Henry WR Average

4th Eric Ghiaciuc C Average
5th Adam Kieft T Failure

6th Tab Perry WR Failure
7th Jonathan Fenene DE Average

2006
Round Player Position Overall Grade

1st Jonathan Joseph CB Good

2nd Andrew Whitworth G Good

3rd Frostee Rucker DE Average

4th Domata Peko DT Average
5th AJ Nicholson LB Failure

6th Reggie McNeal WR Failure
7th Ethan Kilmer S Failure

7th Bennie Brazell WR Failure

* Grades are Still TBD
2007
Round Player Position Overall Grade

1st Leon Hall CB Good *

2nd Kenny Irons RB Failure

3rd Ahmad Brooks (Supp.) LB Failure

4th Marvin White S Average *
5th Jeff Rowe QB Failure *

6th Matt Toeaina DT Failure
7th Dan Santucci C Average *

7th Chinedum Ndukwe S Good *

* Grades are Still TBD

2008
Round Player Position Overall Grade

1st Keith Rivers LB Good *

2nd Jerome Simpson WR Failure *

3rd Pat Sims DT Good *

3rd Andre Caldwell WR Average *
4th Anthony Collins T Average *

5th                    Jason Shirley             DT                   Failure *
6th                    Corey Lynch                           S                     Average *
6th                    Matt Sherry                            TE                   Failure *
7th                    Angelo Craig                         DE                  Failure *
7th                    Mario Urrutia                          WR                  Failure *

WORST YEAR:

-- 2000 (Peter Warrick and Brad St. Louis were the Good picks)

Honorable Mention:

-- ’02 (Levi Jones, L. Thompson, Schoebel, T. Dorsch, Marquand Manuel, Joey Evans)

-- ’05 (Due to injury and off field problems)

TAKEAWAYS:

If the Bengals ever want to truly compete with the Steelers year in and year out they are going to HAVE to improve their drafting. 76% of all Bengal players drafted between 2000 – 2006 were either failed projects or were average or below players.

(The Steelers have an average/below average rate of 70%...but more importantly they rarely ever “miss” on a player taken in the 1st round. Of the 7 players they picked in the 1st round from 2000 to 2006 4 of them have been All Pro/Pro Bowl players and 2 are in the “good” category. Only one of the 7 has been rated a “failure” and that was Plaxico Burress – who want on to be an “Excellent” player for the Giants.)

In comparing the Bengals overall drafting to the Steelers over that stretch of time you will see a huge disparity in these percentages. The Steelers had 54% of their draft picks graded as failures and 13% as average. The combined number of the two equaling 67% compared to the Bengals 76% That is by all means unacceptable for the Bengals and truly is a telling statistic to their lack of success over that period of time. Though the ’09 draft class looks great on paper, the trend also seems to be continuing in this same dreadful manner – as if you include the ’07 and ’08 draft class the number of failed draft picks looks to be in the 77% range. Only 4 players (Ocho, Rudi, TJ and Carson) are rated excellent out of a total of 73 players drafted since 2000 (or 55 if you exclude ’07 and ’08). Either way you’re talking about only a 5 – 7% success ratio in this category. The Steelers scored an 11% “Excellent” ratio. It doesn’t sound great…but it doubles that of Cincinnati. Where the Bengals drafted 4 Pro Bowl or All-Pro players, the Steelers drafted 7.

There’s also an alarming trend that I think most casual observers have seen in that multiple players have been drafted from the same school in several years. (Florida St. – 2000, Oregon St. – 2001, Georgia and Central Michigan – 2005 , and Notre Dame – 2007). This means that four out of Nine years the Bengals have drafted multiple players from one school. Also, prior to Pollack and Thurman being drafted from Georgia in ’05, the Bengals drafted Geathers out of Georgia in ’04. To me this singlehandedly proves the Bengals scouting and/or player personnel department is spread too thin (shocking) and is not able to see or evaluate all of the talent pool available – hence the drafting pattern.

Grading All NFL Teams '05 Draft (1st 2 Rds.)

JohnCockToastin — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 14:43:34 -0000

In response to Kirk's '05 Draft Entry from the other day I thought I'd post some thoughts I had on the subject in case anyone cares. Feel free to call me an idiot if you so choose...

I did a Bengals Draft Analysis prior to the '09 Draft (I will also post) and upon doing that decided to go back and grade all players picked by all 32 teams during the first two rounds of 2005. I graded each player individually as to how their career has panned out. I then concluded which teams have had the best success, and adversely, which teams have had the least. Below is the summary. I think most will be surprised at the outcome.

Total '05 1st Rd. Picks:     32

”Failures”                            10        (31%)

”Average”                            8          (25%)

”Good” 10 (31%)

”Excellent” 4 (13%)

** Interesting that more than half the players chosen in the 1st round do not pan out. Even more interesting is that almost a third of all players chosen in the 1st round will be busts essentially. On the other hand, it’s almost a “50/50” chance that the player will be either good to great as opposed to the type of player that a team will always be looking to replace (average to failure type).

Teams that had multiple picks in the first 2 rounds that were either “Good” or “Excellent” are as follows:

Dallas:                       (DeMarcus Ware, Marcus Spears)
San Diego:                (Shawn Merriman, Luis Castillo, Vincent Jackson)
Green Bay:                 (Aaron Rodgers, Nick Collins)

Teams that had ZERO picks in the first 2 rounds that were either “Good” or “Excellent” are as follows:

San Francisco:          (Alex Smith, David Baas)
Chicago:                    (Cedric Benson, Mark Bradley)
Minnesota:                 (Troy Williamson, Marcus Johnson)
Detroit:                       (Mike Williams, Shaun Cody)
Cincinnati:                  (David Pollack, O’Dell Thurman)
Jacksonville:              (Matt Jones, Khalif Barnes)
Oakland:                     (Fabian Washington, Stanford Routt)

FINAL SYNOPIS:

It is awfully fitting that San Fran, Detroit, Cincinnati, and Oakland are either amongst the worst teams in the league right now ar have had serious struggles recently. Jacksonville, Chicago and Minnesota aren’t far behind them either.

Adversely, San Diego, Dallas and Green Bay have all been flirting with success.

NFL Franchise Rankings (Fox Sports)

JohnCockToastin — Thu, 28 May 2009 18:30:01 -0000

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/9601836/Ranking-the-NFL:-Insider-grading-on-every-franchise

Adam Schein ranks the Bengals #25th, per his criteria. Hey, at least the Browns are ranked #30. Note that this is not a "Power Ranking" but an overall "Franchise Ranking."

As much as I'd love to disagree with his assesment, I can't. I know most of the Jungle's readership frowns upon the national media's perception of our beloved Bengals...but it's hard to dispute.

No One Discussing Boldin Firing Rosenhaus?

JohnCockToastin — Wed, 27 May 2009 17:23:54 -0000

I think this is big news. Does anyone else agree?

It is good to see that at least one of "Oil Slick's" clients is seeing that this guy's advice might not be all that it's cracked up to be. I don't know, maybe holding out every year, demanding to be traded, alienating the organization you work for -- as well as your peers -- isn't such a good idea afterall. Kudos to Boldin for figuring this out.

I'm thinking of a certain latino themed, gold toothed jackass who might stand to take a page out of Anquan's book. Might do 'em good.

Schein's 9 Weekly Nuggets

JohnCockToastin — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 21:09:21 -0000

Schein had a pretty interesting take on C. Johnson...while we all are beating this subject to death, why not beat it down some more?

Schein's Nine: Don't blow it in draft

by Adam Schein

When you think about it, it really isn't rocket science.

You take the best player on the board who fits your coaching staff and an area of need.

But yet, every single year we see goofy picks and questionable moves.

For our draft week SCHEIN 9, we offer friendly reminders to NFL teams — do not blow it.

6. Cincy must trade Chad Johnson

Marvin Lewis says he doesn't know why there is talk about trading Ocho Cinco.

That's why I am here, Marvin.

Chad recently cried to old friend T.J. Houshmandzadeh that he wanted to be traded. Ocho Cinco's act has worn thin. He's a distraction. Johnson was suspended, by you Marvin, last season before a national television game for violating team rules. You can't have rules for 52 guys and then rules for one. He's a headache, distraction and side show. It's the ultimate addition by subtraction move. And he hasn't played like a Pro Bowler in two years. This isn't about you and Mike Brown digging your heels in and showing you won't let a player talk his way off the team. It's about what is best for the team. You have needs all over the field, including offensive tackle, running back, receiver, defensive tackle and linebacker. Trade Chad. End it. Don't blow it.

Am I Alone in Wondering Conspiracies?

JohnCockToastin — Mon, 02 Feb 2009 13:44:55 -0000

The fact that last play wasn’t challenged is mind boggling.

Fumble or incomplete pass, no one – not even a Steelers fan – could argue that the call shouldn’t have been reviewed. Had the call been overturned, Arizona would have had the ball on the Pittsburgh 29 with roughly 8 seconds left – time for a minimum of one attempt into the endzone. Had the play been confirmed by replay then this conversation might be moot. It’s not moot.

Or how about Santonio Holmes TD celebration? (using the ball as a prop, he mimicked LeBron James’ chalk-toss) …I guess the refs forgot that was a 15 yd penalty for excessive and/or illegal celebration. …the outcome certainly WOULDN’T have been different had the Steelers had to kickoff from their 15 instead of the 30…

Wow. Referees determining the outcomes of games. Infuriating.

Even beyond the absurd ending, what about the almost consecutive unsportsmanlike conduct penalties against the Cardinals on a key Pittsburgh scoring drive? One was a phantom roughing the passer call against Roethlisberger. Funny too, I remember a very similar call in the Baltimore game a few weeks back. (Lets not get into the phantom roughing the punter call in that same game or we will REALLY digress) However, if that roughing the passer call wasn't enough, how about the 15 yard face mask penalty by an Arizona defender who coincidentally was having his very face mask twisted simultaneously by the same player he was deemed to have fouled?

Or how about the refs blatantly botching two calls in the Steelers favor that the Cardinals were luckily able to overturn thanks to replay?

We could also talk about the penalties – 106 yards by the Cardinals to just 56 by the Steelers.

Listen, I know certain penalties or judgment calls are sometimes missed or botched by referees. I understand they’re human and that the “human element” is part of the game. But does anyone wonder why the Steelers always seem to be on the favorable end of such controversial calls? And now for a second time in 4 years the Steelers have won a Super Bowl amid a myriad of controversial calls. Does anyone think this is fishy?

I do.

The 2006 Super Bowl was a complete joke. I don’t need to re-explain how terrible the officiating was in that game.

Unfortunately, this game smells just like Super Bowl XL. Does the NFL have a vested interest in seeing the Steelers win? The Steelers do after all have by far the biggest fan following in perhaps all of sports. Could the NFL be secretly pulling for the Steelers to get into the Big Game…and ultimately win it? Just think of all the NFL licensed apparel, merchandise and ticket sales that will now certainly increase. I’m sure the NFL doesn’t mind this at all. I mean, revenues are shared throughout the league.

One can only wonder.

January 22, 1989 "Do Over?"

JohnCockToastin — Fri, 23 Jan 2009 20:24:16 -0000

Not sure if any of you Jungle Nuts listened to Lance McAllister yesterday...or if you even knew that yesterday was the 20th anniversary of Montana to Taylor with 48 seconds left...but 'Ol Lance thought that since President Obama got a "Do Over" with his Presidential Oath / Swear in yesterday it might also be fun to guess what Bengals fans might choose as a "Do Over" from 20 years ago. (meaning...if you take one moment or one play back from that game and "Do it Over" what would it be?

I thought it was a fun and fascinating exercise and wanted to see what all of us folk that visit this site would think.

I think it's interesting to note that Lance went with Stanley Wilson O.D.ing the night before. Not sure why he thought that. Stanley Wilson was, in my mind, pretty far down the trough in terms of being an important cog in that offense. But whatever...

My first thought was Lewis Billups (RIP) dropping that INT. Interesting enough just about every caller went with this thought too...and most of them all remembered this happening right before Montana hit Taylor in the back of the end zone with 48 seconds left. HOWEVER, this play happened the play before Jerry Rice infamously dragged the ball over the pylon to tie the score at 13 early in the 4th. Thus there was plenty of time left on the clock...moreover...what if Billups intercepted it? ...the Bengals would have then likely had the ball on the 1 or 2 yd line...and ended up punting out of the back of their endzone and praying that either (a) they didn't get a Safety or (b) that San Fran didn't get the ball right back in in good field position anyway.

First off...let me just state that I already know I'm a huge loser for analyzing this. So as a disclaimer, for anyone that is thinking that I am...trust me, I already get it. My counter to that thought is, what else do we Bengals fans have to think about or analyze? Our team blows.

Anyways, I just thought I'd see what all you other yahoos have to say or what you think.

Personally I didn't get to hear the whole show, so I don't know how the segment ended...but my thoughts would be one of the following:

(a) Tim Krumrie -- Imagine if we got to do over that play and TK doesn't break his leg? I know David Grant played admirably in TK's absence. But I'd like to believe that Krumrie makes a huge difference in that game if he plays past the 1st quarter.

(b) Tak your choice of any of the multiple "3rd and Forever's" that Montana completed to Rice on the sideline. I mean, if you take just one of those back, field position changed dramatically. And in a game where both defenses were dominant, I think one of those 3rd down stops deep in San Fran’s territory would have been more influential that Billups' dropped pick at the 1 yard line.

Thoughts or feedback? (Aside from being a Bag of Douche?)

I'm Done

JohnCockToastin — Mon, 08 Sep 2008 14:46:10 -0000

I'm not "quitting" because of the outcome of one game. I'm quitting because we all saw this coming...this is the culmination of several years of futility and utter embarrassment.

1. Mike Brown should be forced to give up ownership of that team.
2. Marvin should resign. He's too good of a person to have to deal with this B.S.
3. That offensive line has ZERO pride. (4th and inches...4th and ballgame?) ...pathetic.
4. That game was the most painful thing I've ever watched as a Bengals fan.

Fans in this city should all protest. We should burn our season tickets...we should NOT spend our hard earned dollars supporting a team that clearly is makng no effort to put together a good product for their fans, it's comsumers.

Defensive Kool-Aid

JohnCockToastin — Sat, 09 Aug 2008 14:21:51 -0000

First thing...

I want to note that I think this forum is a great place to talk Bengals football. For the most part, everyone who participates seems to have a solid understanding of the Bengals and the game and many of the regular guys who post messages have interesting opinions that I appreciate reading and hearing.

To my "Kool-Aid" point though...a few of us have discussed "Drinking the Kool-Aid" as it pertains to the defense with the addition of Zimmer, Rivers, and the "potential" (I'm tired of that word) of the young secondary and D-Tackles.

...well I was at practice on Friday and "potential" or not, that defense looks AWFUL. ...they don't "look like they have potential." They look "Awful right now." "Potential" doesn't mean anything. And it doesn't win football games.

Guys like Fanene, Darryl Blackstock (who?), Jeanty, Frostee Rucker, Brandon Johnson, Dhani Jones...these are all guys being counted on to start or play key roles on the defense. (Uugggghhh)

If that doesn't make you scared, I don't know what will. No offense, I'm sure these guys are all noble journeymen and good characters -- but these guys are all scabs. Really. I've been reading everyone's comments about how excited they are about the defense...and I have to admit, I have been a little excited too...but after seeing that collection on defense yesterday?

I don't know about the rest of you, but I don't know how to get excited about fielding a team full of retreads and stop-gaps. That defense looks like it was pieced together by Rachel Phelps and is being managed by Lou Brown. Hey, hopefully the Bengals will have the same outcome as that fictional Indians team did.

So anyways, I don't want to hear about Zimmer's job he did in Dallas with a bunch of no-names. Anyone like to remember the playmakers he had too? The Bengals D has ZERO playmakers.

So who are the Bengals leaders and potential playmakers or gamebreakers on defense? John Thornton (He might be on the 40 Under 40 list but has this dude made a play in 5 years?), Dexter Jackson (aka: "Larry Brown The 2nd"), and Dhani Jones. (Solid player back in '03, I'll give him that) Those are the 3 guys us fans are counting on to lead the Bengals defense at their 3 respective positions?? Again, not to sound like a jerk, but if that gets you excited, the Kool-Aid you're drinking must be high octane. These guys couldn't even start on most NFL teams.

I know the preseason is the one time where every fan can feel great about the upcoming season...but man, not only do I not see it...but the thought of that crew trying to line up against the NFC East and the AFC South makes me squirm.

So...while the offense looks stout and it's exciting to drink the Kool-Aid and think about the "Potential" of such players like Rivers, Marvin White, Ndukwe, Geathers, and Peko, lets talk about who's actually done something in this league and who has the "Ability" to do it NOW (Team slogan?) as opposed to who "might be good in 2-3 years."

I know I sound like an eternal pessimist but lets talk about reality and not what our fantasies are.

Thoughts??