Promoted from FanPosts. --Eric

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We regulars at AA tend to form a general consensus about what should be done to improve the team, whether by altering the major league roster or utilizing differently the roster already in place. This is not to say that there are not constant debates; after all, disagreement is the sign of healthy discourse. But still, when the team is run such that it exposes obvious inefficiencies, critically-thinking fans with access to the same pool of metrics and analysis will tend to form agreements about recommended courses of action. This post is meant to present, briefly and incompletely, those recommendations.

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I just finished reading Jim Bouton's Ball Four. This is the in-season diary of a struggling, marginal player-- a knuckleballer for the 1969 expansion Seattle Pilots. Lots of baseball people hate this book because it publishes clubhouse exploits, makes fun of Mickey Mantle, and generally shows organized baseball not in a serious, but a ridiculous light. Best of all, Bouton relentlessly criticizes managers and coaches-- they are hangers-on, possessing neither special knowledge nor insight but maintaining employment through blind loyalty, looking busy, and constantly uttering cliches.

Jerry Manuel, by most accounts, was an especially mediocre manager with the Chicago White Sox, but has since maintained employment at the major league level, hanging on and waiting his chance. Now he manages one of the most high-profile teams in sports. Davey Johnson was a successful manager with the Mets, Reds, Orioles, and Dodgers, but his tenure with each of those teams was short-lived. If we could devise a metric that scored managers by team performance relative to average expected team performance, Johnson would be near the top of the list. But he can't find employment on the field-- he is now an adviser for the Nationals. Why? Because he has disagreed with ownership. He is seen as disloyal.

Thus an extremely successful manager is unemployed. Willie Randolph, who while not exactly unsuccessful, certainly didn't perform well with his available talent, is on the verge of becoming the manager of the Milwaukee Brewers. Bob Melvin hasn't shown himself to be anything special, but he is the likely candidate to replace Jerry Manuel, should he be replaced. What's the lesson? Just that baseball teams still value loyalty and predictability beyond their value, and switching managers doesn't usually change anything. Jerry Manuel may be an especially bad manager, but he's nothing new in baseball. If he gets fired and keeps his head, he'll get another job coaching soon.

Ultimately, the Mets' problems are not Manuel's problems-- they're Omar Minaya's. Should Jerry Manuel be replaced, it will only give the Mets an excuse to continue making the same mistakes. Omar Minaya, who took Mike Jacobs, Gary Matthews, Jr. and Frank Catalanotto north; who gave Oliver Perez a three-year, $36 million contract and Luis Castillo 4 years and $25 million, will still be there. The Mets need to replace him, too, but considering the thought process that led to Minaya's extension, that too likely would solve nothing. Stupidity breeds further stupidity; Mets fans must root for either a change in ownership or a lucky break in GM selection. In my opinion, we'll be screwed until long after David Wright, Jose Reyes, and even Mike Pelfrey cease to be productive baseball players. I just can't see a way out.

I am reading the Amazin' Avenue Annual 2010 and I must say, I am pretty impressed. It is well-organized, well-written, and well-conceived. Even Matt "Ellipsis" Cerrone contributed a sensible, if vague, article. Seeing this work makes me want to be part of the Mets blogosphere once again, but I'm not sure I can do it.

The Ike Davis era has begun, and fans are bound for disappointment, as Davis will probably not be a premium first baseman or corner outfielder unless he stops prematurely dropping his hands and thus develops more consistent line drive and home run potential. We'll see a lot of pop-ups and lunges until then. Still, he is superior right now to Mike Jacobs and Mike Hessman, and probably Chris Carter too. Daniel Murphy, the other option at first base, might be able to outperform Davis but is better suited as a four-corners utilityman. Nick Evans probably belongs on the major league bench, but shouldn't be a starting first baseman.

Murphy and Evans are the kinds of players the Mets just don't understand. They provide cheap value, but they have to be used correctly. They shouldn't be counted on as regular starters and aren't worth much as trade bait. They are kind of home-grown players that should be filling out the Mets' bench at a low price instead of relatively high-priced free agent/washout acquisitions like Tatis, Cora, and Matthews.

I was very surprised at Luis Castillo's performance last year, with a .387 OBP and 20 steals. I didn't think that Slappy was able to do anything but decline miserably. Unfortunately, he is still doing that on defense; he is a defensive specialist who can't field anymore. Major league baseball teams have a hard time defending their use of all-field, no-hit infielders, but when it's no-field, no-hit, it's really not worth it. If Castillo could put up a SLG of .400, with a .360 OBP, his sub par defense might be playable. Instead, he lives almost entirely on singles and walks, and not many of those singles are the infield hits he enjoyed earlier in his career. Castillo has some speed left and is a smart baserunner, but his usefulness as a starter is long gone. This is why it is so frustrating that the Mets, who clearly recognize this, failed to sign Orlando Hudson or Felipe Lopez after they couldn't find a taker for Castillo's stupid contract (which, by the way, I predicted before it happened.) It's quite sad that the Mets are sticking a .350 slugging percentage in the 2-hole every day when statistical analysis shows that it is not patience at the plate or contact ability that is most important for that spot, but slugging percentage.

Frank Catalanotto: the Mets could do a lot, lot worse. They have in the past, and they will in the future. Franky the Cat is nothing special for a pinch hitter, of course, but at least he's not Julio Franco. It should go without saying, also, that Catalanotto should not be hitting cleanup.

Speaking of Jerry Manuel being a bad manager, he should really chill it with the relief pitchers. And yes, of course, Jenrry Mejia should be starting games in AA, or at least AAA. And if he has to be on the big club, he should still be starting. I would give him John Maine's spot, because his arm looks dead and I'm still hoping that Oliver Perez has something left.

That makes me kind of like Omar Minaya. In my general post about the fallacies of Mets management strategy, I got some great comments. The best point was that Minaya sometimes acquires adequate personnel but grows attached to them; or, he makes a good gamble and loses but instead of moving on he keeps trying to extract value from the same ghostly, sunk cost player. Minaya should understand that General Managers gamble and lose all the time, but they make up for this by other gambles, by being flexible and fluid with their player acquisitions. But, Omar is not that kind of GM; he's the kind who says, "OK, he's nine out of ten against this guy. Am I going to get that nine out of ten or that one out of ten?" (Quotation courtesy of Derek Carty, writing in the Annual.)

Finally, if the Mets are close (5 games) to the division lead in July (I doubt it, but it's totally possible), they should seriously consider trading Fernando Martinez.

(bumped from fanposts. --eric)

The Devil Rays, the Pirates, the Mariners: one by one the old-school, traditionally-minded general managers and management strategies are being replaced by an intelligent, purposeful, and businesslike approach, making use of the resources and knowledge available today. Left behind are teams like the Mets, Astros, and Giants, to name a few of the most pathetic.

Nevertheless, poorly conceived and poorly constructed squadrons can and do compete-- the Mets had a nice run there from 2006 to 2008-- even if, with some better decisions made on the margins, they could have made the playoffs those latter two years and perhaps brought home a pennant or two. Now, it seems, the opportunity has passed; the Mets can either set themselves up for a burst of success in the future, or continue to throw money around, perpetually fielding 75-85 win teams.

That can work when one has as much money as the Mets, but one must spend that money correctly, not based on potentially heartwarming stories and silly notions of set roles (instead of relative and total value).

This first theory of Mets' management is, I think, highly neglected. Omar Minaya does not have any special talent for constructing a baseball roster. He has skill as a scout, but basically no understanding of the relative value of baseball players, how to measure it, and how to obtain that value at a good price. His thinking is rigid where he needs to be flexible, and imaginative where it just doesn't matter.

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I know I am a one-trick pony, but I thought I would drag my freak sideshow out into the ring one more time: The Mets need Valentino Pascucci. Last year he wasted away another year in AAA, but in the Mets' system, where he hit .280/.403/.508. First base, Pascucci's best position, was occupied by Carlos Delgado, who was having a great season. But Marlon Anderson started three games there and 20 in the outfield. There was no reason to do that, except for Omar Minaya's proclivity for over-the-hill "veteran" types.

But then how do we explain the promotion of Nick Evans from AA to the majors, where he got to start a game at first and 25 more in the outfield?

What about Chris Aguila, Brady Clark, Andy Phillips, and Trot Nixon? Were these players so good with the the glove that they overcame their miserable hitting? Were they all worth promotions when a guy with a carer minor league line of .275/.386/.489 is sitting down there waiting for his chance? Is Angel Pagan (23 starts) really a better hitter from the right side than Valentino Pascucci? No reasonable person could say so.

This year the case is even stronger. A red-hot Carlos Delgado is not playing first base; he is on the Disabled List. Fernando Tatis, Daniel Murphy and even Jeremy Reed are playing there. Tatis gets the majority of starts against left-handers even though his platoon split (career .799 OPS vs. LHP and .785 vs. RHP) is extremely minor. Pascucci, for comparison, has an extreme split in the minors (.951 and .882 for lefties and righties, respectively).

This year, he is playing for the Dodgers' AAA affiliate in Albuquerque and hitting only .218/.338/.391. His BABIP is .263, far below his career norm, and he is hitting an inordinate amount of balls into the ground, uncharacteristic of this high-HR, high-BB, high-K hitter. He has certainly been slumping in May and June. Perhaps it's the beginning of the end for the slugger; he is 30 and this is his sixth-straight season in either AAA or Japan. But more likely that it's just the most recent slump.

The Mets acquired Pascucci from Philadelphia last year when they had even less of a need for him than they do now. Perhaps they will call for him again? Knowing the Mets and their disdain for "statistical numbers," it's unlikely that they're even looking for a better solution at first base. But if they are, I think Pascucci is the guy.

People say (believe me, I've heard all the arguments) that if he were so good, why hasn't he been given a chance? Well the reasons are obvious. Any scout looking at Pascucci sees a big, slow bat that takes a ridiculous swing and would be totally overmatched in the majors. I find this argument preposterous. No matter what he looks like, the guy has consistently yielded .900+ OPSes in AAA. That talent isn't going to disappear just because the competition is better. People said the same things about Jack Cust, and his talent has translated to the major leagues. Pascucci's will as well.

Finally, having a right-handed power bat, even if from the bench, neutralizes a lot of the advantage the Phillies have on the Mets. Because right now Fernando Tatis, Wilson Valdez, and Omir Santos aren't exactly filling them with dread.

So ESPN was doing this stupid thing on Baseball Tonight for Willie Mays's birthday where they took attributes of several different current Major League center fielders in an effort to "build" Willie Mays. I know it's stupid, but it's ESPN.

Because I love Carlos Beltran so much, I immediately thought of Carlos Beltran. Then I was thinking that of the traditional "tools," Beltran falls short of Mays the most on hitting for average. Of course, batting average is a highly-overrated statistic, but hey, this is Steve Phillips and company.

So what did they do? John Kruk, up first, selected Carlos Beltran for hitting-for-average. Willie Mays has a career .302 batting average, Beltran only .282, but hey, he's hitting .388 right now, so he must have an ability to hit for a high average!

Idiots.

Personally, I would select Beltran's defensive ability. Instead, they picked Torii Hunter, who in addition to spelling his name incorrectly is a highly overrated defensive outfielder, not close to Beltran according to all the metrics that matter.

Anyway, I don't think any of the players cited are close to Mays in anything but speed and arm strength. I just thought I would rant about what I saw on ESPN last night.

Batting Average: Carlos Beltran

Speed: Curtis Granderson

Power: Grady Sizemore

Defense: Torii Hunter

Arm: Someone, I don't remember