Baseball Prospectus is holding an event at Camden Yards with various BP writers and Andy MacPhail on April 12 before the Os play the Rays.

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A nice piece from the Baltimore Sun on Eric Davis:

Catching Up with Eric Davis

And, as filler, a public service reminder to everyone (especially as you get older) to have a colonoscopy. It's not a lot of fun, but it's necessary. Several years ago I lost a colleague, the brilliant historian Lawrence Levine, to colon cancer. Davis's heroic recovery and example tell one joyful story, but there are a lot of sad ones out there too.

In a recent commentary on the Royal's potential acquisition of Mike Jacobs (which has actually happened since he wrote), Rany Jazzyjeffli [I may be spelling that wrong] mentioned something I wasn't aware of.

Most importantly, though, trading for Jacobs makes it more likely than not that Billy Butler has already played his last game for the Royals.

 

We know that Moore is not a fan of Butler; we’ve known that since Sam Mellinger wrote this summer that Moore had offered Butler to the Mariners for Yuniesky Betancourt two winters ago. (The Mariners, bless their hearts, declined. Betancourt’s defensive reputation is massively overrated, and he hits like a late-model Angel Berroa.)

Butler has struggled to adjust to the majors and he's a born DH if there ever was one, but he's just 22 and has incredible potential. I don't know how correct Rany's reading of the situation is, but it seems like exactly the kind of thing the Orioles should look into -- if the Royals are determined to make bad decisions, it's only right that we should do our best to facilitate.

Here's the link to the post, which is a much longer discussion of the trade and why Rany hates it: Rany on the Royals.

Does anyone have any info of Asdrubal Cabrera's status? I noticed that he hasn't been in the box scores the last few days and a Google News search indicates that he's been put on the Akron inactive list. Anybody know why -- injury, personal issues, etc...?

[Filler] He seems to be having an impressive regrouping year, particularly in the plate discipline department, after being badly rushed, and I'm hoping that this isn't a serious setback.[end filler.]

I've noticed that Juan Rivera has been on a tear recently, with two two-homer games this week.  That prompted me to look at his overall numbers and think about what could have been...

After last year's early-season success, pretty much everyone gave up on critiquing the Guillen for Rivera/Izturis deal. And you could argue that no matter what happens, the deal was a success because the Nats' great start had such an important psychological and public relations effect.

But a lot of the substance of the criticism wasn't so much about that first season, but about the deal's long-term effects. In fact, I'd argue that this deal, although it isn't really controversial in the public mind anymore, is exactly the kind of defensible but wrong-headed thing that will hurt the team in the long term.  Nats fandom is nothing if not masochistic, so let's take a look at the numbers:

Guillen 2005: .283/.338/.479 in 551 AB, with 24 HR, 32 2B, 76 RBI, and 81 R.
Guillen 2006: .206/.267/.406 in 212 AB, with 9 HR, 13 2B, 33 RBI, and 26 R.

Rivera 2005: .271/.316/.454 in 350 AB, with 15 HR, 17 2B, 59 RBI, and 46 R.
Rivera 2006: .286/.349/.514 in 175 AB, with 10 HR, 10 2B, 35 RBI, and 28 R.

Guillen was clearly better in 2005, but by the end of the season, the difference wasn't as great as I imagine most people assumed it would be, particularly if you accept that Rivera could have sustained that rate of performance in a full-time role (I think so, but I suppose you could argue differently). This year, Guillen has sucked, and Rivera is doing quite well, albeit not quite in a full-time role. Guillen's injuries obviously play a role here, but when you acquire a guy headed into his 30s, that's a possibility you need to factor in to your decision making.

I'd argue that you really could (and should) have seen something like this coming -- Rivera's track record suggested that he was close to the same player Guillen was before the deal, despite Guillen's reputation as a slugger, and his age (a bit less than two years younger) and better plate discipline suggested that he was a decent bet to get better, while Guillen's track record (esp. high Ks and low BBs) and age suggested that he was a good bet to decline, at least a little and perhaps a lot.

On top of that, let's look at the money...

Guillen made $3.5 million in 2005, and $4 million in 2006.  He will be a free agent in 2007.

Rivera made $390,000 in 2005, and avoided arbitration by signing a two-year deal that pays him $1.25 million in 2006 and $2.025 million in 2007.  He's eligible for arbitration again in 2008 and for free agency in 2009.

So that's $7.5 million for two years of Guillen vs. $3.665 million for three years of Rivera, and he'd be under control for at least a fourth year at a reasonable salary ($4-5 million max).  Guillen's contract really isn't bad at all, but Rivera would have been a tremendous bargain at least through 2008 -- enough to pay for an average-to-above-average player at another position, like pitcher, shortstop, or centerfield, perhaps.

None of this factors in Izturis. It's not clear that he would have made it as an everyday shortstop, so quantifying this part of the deal is tough. Izturis's numbers as a utility guy in the majors haven't been impressive. Although he likely would have been better than Guzman, I'm not sure that it's fair to think that that was obvious beforehand -- everyone (except apparently Jim Bowden and Tom Boswell) knew the Guzman deal was a bad one and that he was a bad player, but the level of badness he reached in 2005 was unprecedented.

So it's hard to put direct blame on the front office for not installing Izturis as the starter in the first place...but you can blame them for the Guzman deal and point out that, no matter what people could have reasonably foreseen, the fact of the matter is that the team would have been much better off if they HAD installed Izturis as the starter.  At the very least, he would have provided a similar offensive performance for somewhere near the league minimum, instead of the four years of suckitude we're getting for $16.8 million for Guzman along with $1 million for Clayton and whatever other money has to be spent fixing the position over the next two years.

Ultimately, I think this deal is a tragedy of conventional thinking -- realistically, it's hard to blame the front office for the deal.  Guillen was established and had an image as a slugger (and as a head case, of course), made largely by an amazing 300 AB in Cincinatti, although his year in Anaheim was pretty good too. The reality was a bit more complicated, since he had real weaknesses in his game that indicated that he wasn't likely to keep up that level of performance.  Given the pressure to bring in a real major leaguer and given the unfortunate but understandable cover-your-ass bias among most GMs towards established players rather than unestablished ones (if the established player fails, it's the player's fault; if the unestablished one fails, it's the GM's fault for not bringing in an established player) it's hard not to accept the deal as a reasonable one within the realistic universe of major-league decision-making.  But I think that the way that the deal has and will continue to play out has deeply hurt the Nationals' medium-term future, in terms of money spent (on Guillen, on Guzman, on Clayton, on utility guys on the bench) and in terms of on-field performance, since there's a more than reasonable chance that Rivera is likely to be better than Guillen for the rest of their careers.

After a very solid Venezuelan winter league season and World Baseball Classic, Franklin Gutierrez is off to a hot start in Buffalo, hitting .351/.442/.595 with a BB:K of 6:8 in 37 AB.

What do people think? Did he figure something out toward the end of last year, or is this just a hot streak that will play itself out?  (He had a very bad spring -- at least in terms of numbers, I don't know how he looked in terms of scouty stuff -- so including those numbers might bring things back to earth a bit.)

Baseball America recently posted their ranking of minor league systems, with the Orioles coming in at number twelve.

That's a huge upgrade from previous years, where we see numbers like "30" and "29" a lot. The development of Markakis, Loewen's return to prospectdom, and the great draft last year have a lot to do with that.  Let's hope it bears some fruit over the next few years.

In what might be the first positive statement about the Orioles from Baseball Prospectus since the late 1990s, Joe Sheehan approves of both the Benson and Patterson deals (subscription only):

Kris Benson was also a Mets' dumpee, sent to the Orioles in exchange for Jorge Julio and John Maine. Benson's three-year, $22.5-million contract kicked off a 16-month rush of silly deals for pitchers long on potential and short on production. Standing on the other side of that rush, having Benson--a league-average pitcher with some durability issues--for two years and $15 million doesn't seem like such a bad idea. Like the Dodgers with Seo, the Orioles didn't give up anything of note in exchange for a pitcher who is a good bet for 180 league-average innings, perhaps more if he can shake the nagging injuries. ...

The Orioles also added Corey Patterson, essentially for free, from the Cubs. Not to get too mainstream here, but if you're ever going to use the "he needed a change of scenery" argument for a player, you'd use it with Patterson, who was broken by the end of last year. He has flaws, especially at the plate, where he's never going to be a true leadoff man because he's not wired to work counts. If you set that aside, though, and look at him for what he is--a true center fielder with very good left-handed power and some speed--you can see a player who will be worth five wins on the cheap right now, and with a chance for more upside than that as he goes through his peak.

At the very least, I expect the Orioles to get a short-term bounce here, a kind of performance like Oddibe McDowell had in 1988 for the Braves. For a team that has struggled to find a center fielder and needs lefty pop, it's an excellent pickup.

And you thought Michael Tucker was a waste...

ESPN Deportes reports that the Nationals are in discussions with Sammy Sosa.

I guess I'll save my outrage and wait to see if this really happens, but still... I've got a lot of outrage stored up from this offseason, so when the time comes...

AND, FILLER.............................

Just ran across this in Baseball Prospectus's write up of the Dominican Winter League:

Orioles OF Val Majewski continued to get at-bats with the Azucareros after missing the whole summer with a torn labrum in his left (throwing) shoulder. In 17 games he hit .293/.406/.379 with 10 walks, but without a home run, just four extra-base hits and 17 strikeouts in 58 official at-bats. Majewski, who's still unable to play defense, left the team for Christmas and is not expected to return.

I really am shocked at how much Cubs fans seem to hate Patterson, though.  I guess we'll see how quickly Orioles' fans come to agree with them.  It sure makes me want to root for him at this point, though.  

Also of note -- former Orioles shortstop of the future Ed Rogers won the league batting title, hitting .366. No real significance there, but a nice little bit of trivia.

Noooooooooooooo!!!!!

Rotoworld sums it up:

The Orioles are close to signing Jeromy Burnitz to a two-year deal worth $6 million per season, according to the Baltimore Sun.

What a remarkably bad idea. Maybe the worst of the winter so far, which is really saying something. Burnitz has had OPSs of 676, 786, 915 and 757 the last four years. His one good year was Coors Field aided, of course, and he had a road OPS of 775 that year. Burnitz turns 37 in April, so he's going to get worse, not better. As a one-year stopgap, he'd be tolerable. $12 million over two years is just flushing Peter Angelos' money down the toilet.

I cannot freaking believe this team.

If anyone was wondering why fans in Texas seem to have gotten so sick of Soriano, this kind of attitude might have something to do with it:

"I don't want to change," Soriano said Monday night at a dinner held for major league players by Dominican Republic President Leonel Fernandez. "If I haven't done it before, I won't do it now."

Soriano said he had a greater comfort level in the AL, and he plans to become a free agent after next season and sign with an AL team.

"I knew the pitchers and batters of opposing teams and, therefore, where to place myself defensively. In the National that's going to take me a while," he said.

Over at The Harball Times, they have an interesting little piece using graphs to analyze Daniel Cabrera's past performance and to speculate about his future.

They focus on K/9 and BB/9, pointing out that his K/9 seems legit, given his track record, but that there's not much there to suggest that his BB/9 is going to suddenly drop without a major adjustment on Cabrera's part -- his BB/9 was quite high for most of his minor league career, never getting below 3.7 (which was in rookie ball).

The implication is that if he's going to realize the potential suggested by his K/9, he needs to do more than simply translate his minor league performance to the majors; he needs to become a better pitcher than he has been to this point.  

The one thing I see that is potentially positive is the drop from A to AA, followed by a (more modest) drop in the majors from 2004 to 2005. If you combine those lines (adjusting for the uptick in 2004 from AA to the majors), it seems like there is a downward trend at work. (You might also include the drop from 2001 to 2002 in this trend, adjusting again for an uptick as he went up a level to A ball in 2003.)  If he can even get his BB/9 below 4, you're talking about a very good pitcher; below 3 and  you're talking about a potential Cy Young candidate.

I was just reading a transcript of yesterday's chat with Jonah Keri at Baseball Prospectus (don't know if it's subscriber-only or not).

But he had an interesting point -- the Os should focus on trading the B+ guys like Javy and Mora, rather than dealing Tejada, who is such a valuable player that they'd be unlikely to get full value for him.  He may be overestimating the return on Lopez and Mora, but it's an interesting point.  Here's the question and answer:

doughk (DC): What should the Oriole's do - placate Tejada and overpay for Millwood/Zito/Weaver (ugh) or blow everything up and trade Tejada, Lopez^2 and Mora and hope to contend in 2007/2008? They have a number of promising outfield and "pitching" prospects (Markakis, Reimold, Fiorentino, Majewski, Loewen, Penn, Olson). Seems like the Angels and their abundance of infield prospects would be a good fit.

Jonah Keri: Why don't more teams look for trades rather than deciding that throwing a mint at a player is the only way to go? The A's and White Sox have both done very well for themselves in picking up Bradley, Perez and Vazquez at a discount, and neither team has to sweat Years 3 through 6 of a giant, long-term contract.

That rant aside, the O's have been a limbo team for years now. If I were them I'd look to trade Lopez and Mora, sure. But they're never going to get full value for someone as good as Tejada. Trade their B+ players (rather than their A players) for Triple-A guys on the cusp of low-service time qualioty major leaguers, keep their younger guys. If everything breaks right they contend with Tejada quickly. If not, you haven't hurt your chances for '07 and beyond.

From Rotoworld:

Alfonso Soriano has been traded to the Nationals for Brad Wilkerson, Terrmel Sledge and a player to be named, ESPNews reports.

I guess they're thinking he can play center, since Vidro is theoretically healthy, and he's an even worse defender at second than Jose, even without his legs.  

I'll have to digest this a bit -- Soriano is pretty overrated, but that doesn't mean he isn't good.  And he'll add some much-needed power to the lineup.  Doesn't really help the Nats' low-OBP ways much, though, and he'll be 30 next year.  I guess it depends on what you expect out of Wilkerson over the next few years...

Rotoworld reports:
"According to the New York Daily News, the Blue Jays have agreed to terms with B.J. Ryan on a five-year, $47 million contract.
"So much for him being undervalued. That's a tremendous amount of money for a closer, even if Ryan will probably be asked to pitch more than most save specialists. We like his chances of remaining a quality reliever for the duration of the contract, but, well, that's a lot of money."

I love Ryan, and I would have loved for the O's to keep him, but I've got to agree -- $9 million a year is insane for a reliever.

Of course, these early reports have been wrong before, so we'll have to wait and see.  But geez...

Over at John Sickels's place, the commenters (with John's concurrence) have dubbed the Nats' minor league system the worst in the majors.

Here's the discussion:
Worst Farm System Poll

And here's the announcement of the results:
1st Annual S.S. Poseidon Award

I don't know enough to nitpick about other systems, but it's pretty hard to argue with the conclusion.  I'm looking forward to seeing Zimmerman next year, but there's nothing else to get even a little bit excited about.  Maybe Casto, but he's a ways away at this point.

And as an astute commenter pointed out, the system will get even better when Bowden costs us our early picks by signing Juan Encarnacion and Matt Morris (or someone similar).  

(Given the Nats' record, I'm not sure whether signing an "A" player -- Morris is, but Encarnacion isn't -- would cost a first or second round pick; the top 15 teams surrender a 1st, while the bottom 15 surrender a 2nd, and the Nats and Brewers tied for 15th with a .500 record.  In any case, though, the Nats aren't in a position to be surrendering any kind of pick for crappy, overpaid and overrated free agents.  But it looks like that's the route we're going.)

Over at Minor League Ball, John Sickels has posted a thread asking Orioles fans for their thoughts on the top prospects and top sleepers in the Os' system:

Orioles Farm System

Head on over, see what folks have to say, and make your own contribution if you're so inclined.

My gut-reaction list, without looking up any stats: Markakis, Penn, Snyder, Majewski, Reimold, Erbe, J. Johnson, Fiorentino, Spears, G. Olson.

I'm very high on Reimold, based on his stats and what I've read at BA.  I also have a lot of confidence in Majewski, and he seems to be proving that he's healthy in the AFL.

Interesting Q & A from BA's California League prospect chat:

"Q: Kevin from Foster City, CA. asks:
One last question about a prospect, but not a player: Lenn Sakata's managed 5 teams in a weak SF Giants system, and taken them all to the playoffs, including this year's Cal League champs. He plays talk down, but is he a future big league manager?

 "A: Kevin Goldstein: Two in a row for my namesake, because I like the question. It's a great question. If I had to do a list of top manager prospects, he'd be at the head of the list."

I had no idea what Sakata was up to these days, but I'm delighted to hear that he's having success.

You might think that I'm going to suggest that he might be a good manager for the Orioles, but honestly, I'm not sure that I would wish that situation on my worst enemy, let alone a guy I always liked and rooted for when I was growing up.

Ryan Zimmerman played shortstop for Harrisburg last night, and I just heard on the radio that this was at Bowden's request/order.  The idea is that he'll spend the next two weeks or so adjusting to the position, and then come up to replace Guzman in September.

I know the Nationals are desperate and that Guzman sucks, but this seems like a case of Bowden getting increasingly crazy to cover up his own mistakes and save his job when the new owners come in, whoever they may be.

I know that Zimmerman is considered a fantastic defensive 3B, but I really worry that this will hurt his development -- he's being rushed as it is, and now he has to learn an even more demanding defensive position.

What do folks think -- is this as insane as I think it is?  Can Zimmerman make this transition? Will Bowden screw this team irrevocably before he gets axed?

Update [2005-8-18 11:2:52 by Joltin Joe Orsulak]:Here's a link to the Washington Times story that mentions this: http://www.washingtontimes.com/sports/20050818-125642-8027r.htm

And here's the relevant text, for folks who don't feel like following the link:

"Zimmerman at short

Ryan Zimmerman, the Nationals' 2005 first-round draft pick, played shortstop for the first time as a minor leaguer last night for the Class AA Harrisburg Senators. He had three putouts and two assists in an errorless night.

This move is a strong indication the club is considering replacing slumping shortstop Cristian Guzman when rosters expand to 40 players on Sept. 1.

Zimmerman, a third baseman throughout his collegiate career at Virginia, is hitting .310 with seven home runs and 27 RBI for the Senators. The Nationals selected Zimmerman with the fourth pick overall in June's draft.

Zimmerman started his professional career with the low-Class A Savannah Sand Gnats, hitting .471 (8-for-17) in four games before quickly being promoted. Many within the club believe Zimmerman will skip Class AAA ball and go straight to the majors."

Wetnap posted the link in the Bedard/Cabrera thread, but I thought it deserved more prominent billing since it's so interesting:

Rich Lederer at The Baseball Analysts on Cabrera

Lederer points out just how amazing Cabrera has been against righties, discusses his stuff, comparing him to Carlos Zambrano, and argues that Cabrera's downside is as a closer, and that his upside is almost unlimited. He concludes, "I know one thing.  If I were a general manager, Daniel Alberto Cabrera would be high on my shopping list this winter."

Orioles fans need whatever comfort they can find these days, so in addition to the Markakis thread below, I give you Brandon Snyder's line thus far in the Appalachian League:

.280/.430/.560, 5 HR, 6 2B, and a BB:K of 21:17 in 75 AB.  He's also got 4 SB and only 1 CS.

It's nice to see him adjusting so well to pro ball, particularly the plate discipline.  I don't know if rookie league success means much in the long term, but it sure beats rookie league failure at this point.

Nick Markakis is 3-4 with a home run and 4 RBI thus far in his debut at Bowie.

And Fiorentino homered, going 2-5 for Frederick.

Help on the way? Well, maybe not imminently, but if Markakis impresses at Bowie, he'd be on track for a mid-season callup in 2006.

Also, Nolan Reimold is still looking pretty good at Aberdeen.

Rotoworld says that ESPNews is reporting that Raffy has been suspended for steriods.

This is still in the rumor stage, but if it's true I will be devastated.  I've always liked Raffy, and while I don't think that steroids are a major crime or anything -- I don't get as worked up as many, perhaps most, people about it -- I really thought that Raffy hadn't done it.  And the fact that he'd be stupid enough to get caught at this point would be deeply disappointing.

Let's hope it's a false alarm, or that he just took a whole bunch of greenies.

Update [2005-8-1 12:52:46 by Joltin Joe Orsulak]:: Looks like it has gone beyond the rumor stage, and that Raffy really has been suspended. Crap. I'm still working on a good theory so that I can stay in denial on this, but I haven't come up with anything yet.

Update [2005-8-1 13:48:14 by Joltin Joe Orsulak]:Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus provides some commentary (free until Aug. 3). Nothing groundbreaking, but he does make the point that it seems implausible that Palmeiro just started using. No mention of the "contamination" defense, though. I want to believe Raffy, but that argument is so common among people who get caught (in track & field, for instance) that it's hard to know if you can take it seriously.

Napoli is having an excellent year at Arkansas, proving that the power he showed last year can hold up at higher levels (although Arkansas is a hitter-friendly park in a hitter-friendly league).

His line: .275/.408/.534, 15 HR, 17 2B, 1 3B, and a BB:K of 52:78 in 247 AB.  He also has 8 steals in 10 attempts.

That's an astounding walk rate of 17%, although his contact rate is only about 68%, and he's shown solid ISO throughout his career (last year and this year are well above his first two years, around .258, but even his first two years were around .145 or so).  The strikeouts are a bit worrisome, but the rest of the peripherals seem quite strong. I don't know any scouty info about him -- maybe his Ks are caused by a long swing or something that wouldn't play well in the majors, for instance -- but his minor league numbers look pretty impressive so far.

I've read mixed things about his defense as a catcher, enough so that many people think he may move to 1B.

John rated him a C+ in the 2005 book, and others wanted to see if his 2004 power was for real before rating him as anything other than marginal, but he seems to be putting a lot of those concerns to rest.

What do people think his future is?  Can this guy become the Angels C of the future, as Mathis slumps his way to backup-dom?  Perhaps he could fill a Mike Stanley kind of role as a rotating regular at 1B/C/DH while Kotchman mans first and Mathis catches?

Nate Silver has a subscriber-only article at Baseball Prospectus about players having unexpectedly good or bad starts, and Brian Roberts is headliner among the profiled players.  Silver is remarkably optimistic, essentially saying that since Roberts did everything well besides hitting for power until this year, he's got a very solid base of skills to build on, and that his year probably isn't really a fluke.

He thinks Roberts will be "among the 15-20 best players in baseball going forward" [it's not clear if he means this year or for the next few years, but it sounds like the latter], and, even more optimistically, mentions that "the precedent that I think works reasonably well here is Jim Edmonds" a player with solid all-around skills whose power blossomed late.

I love Roberts, but this kind of mainstream enthusiasm always makes me nervous.  I hope this isn't some kind of BP/stathead jinx in the works.

Wow.  Rotoworld just reported that the Os are calling up Jeff Fiorentino to take Matos's roster spot.  Sal Fasano is also getting called up (though I'm not sure how that works -- with Matos and Sammy going down, I though we only had room for two, Reed and Fiorentino).

So no Young for now, it looks like.

This seems awfully premature for Fiorentino.  I love him as a prospect, but the jump from Frederick to Baltimore is a big one -- early exposure certainly didn't benefit Bigbie.  Perhaps they're just going to let him get a taste of the big time by sitting on the bench and playing a little defense.  But if that's the case, that means they haven't brought up anyone who will actually contribute on offense, since Reed and Fasano certainly don't count.

I was just meandering through the Minor League Baseball International League leaders' page and I noticed that Jason Scobie of the Tides is off to a very strong start -- 23 IP, only 12 H, 4 R/ER, 0 HR, and 20:7 K:BB.

He's 26, and Baseball Cube shows that he had success in the low minors but that his K-rate went down significantly when he hit AA.  He was at Binghamton for all of last year, after splitting 2003 between Binghamton and Norfolk.  But I haven't found any writeup on him -- never made John's books or BP as far as I can tell.  Anyone know anything else?  How was he regarded when drafted (2001)?  What is his stuff like?  

From the numbers, I would guess that he doesn't have major league stuff but has been in the minors long enough to learn how to use what he does have well enough to get minor leaguers out.  In that scenario, big league success seems like a long shot -- but that's just a guess based on the numbers (Ks in particular).  Any other info would be appreciated.

He's off to a slow start: .186/.255/.279, 1 HR, 1 2B, and a 4:15 BB:K in 48 AB.

Has anyone seen him or have a sense of what the problem is?  Just a slump?  Also, he didn't play at all in the series against Rochester.  Anyone know what's up?  Just a few days off, or is he hurt?

ANNNNNNNNND 300 Character minimum.