SB Nation User Blog: Jon Marthaler

On Payrolls

Jon Marthaler — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 04:13:03 -0000

I swear, I didn't want to be the guy that keeps harping on payroll discrepancies in baseball. But then I discovered one of the depressing things about payrolls. And then the great Joe Posnanski got in on the act, pointing out that baseball has a tendency to hide dominance - that even if you put together a team made up of the best players in baseball, that team still might lose 45-50 games during the season, and still might not win the World Series. That's just the way it's set up.

So I went ahead and did some number crunching (well, number adding, at least). Using the USA Today payroll database, I went through a decade's worth of payrolls. (Please, no arguments about whether the decade is over this year or next year. It's 2000-2009 for the purposes of this post.)

You won't be surprised to find out that the Yankees top the list; they had the largest payroll in every single season, and all told spent just over 1.67 billion on player contracts over the decade. Only three other teams (the Red Sox, the Mets, and the Dodgers) cleared the $1 billion mark.

I'm not sure that I'm doing justice to how big that gap is, though. The Yankees spent only $9 million less than the Cubs and the White Sox combined. The Yankees spent more than the Nationals, Pirates, Marlins, and Rays - FOUR OTHER TEAMS - combined.

A little closer to home: take the Red Sox payroll, the second-highest payroll in the league. Now add the Twins payroll. THAT is what the Yankees spent; they could afford to buy the Red Sox roster, and add in the Twins roster, every year.

And now, let me address the "money can't buy wins" argument, which is what Posnanski tackled so ably. No amount of money can buy an undefeated season, and the playoffs are such a crapshoot that the best team doesn't always win.

So I ask you to instead look at it this way. Consider this:

The top 13 teams in payroll over the last decade each won at least one division title. Only six of the other 17 teams won even one.
43 of a possible 60 division titles were won by these same 13 teams.
57 of a possible 80 playoff berths were won by these same 13 teams.
The Mets and the Mariners were the only teams in the top 13 that didn't go to the playoffs at least three times in the decade, going twice each. Out of the bottom 17, only the Athletics, Twins, and Diamondbacks made the playoffs at least three times (and the D'Backs had payrolls north of $85 million two of those years).

What I'm trying to say is this. There are, in general, two ways to compete in baseball. You can get lucky with young talent, like the Twins and Athletics. You can hope for one or two good years, like the Rays or the Marlins or the Brewers.

Or you can spend lots of money.

Twins trade Carlos Gomez for JJ Hardy

Jon Marthaler — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 16:57:03 -0000

The first report was from Brewers.com, via Twitter:

Brewers acquire CF Carlos Gomez from Minnesota in exchange for SS J.J. Hardy.

I did NOT see that coming. It's been confirmed pretty much everywhere.

According to MLBTradeRumors, thanks to Hardy's midseason demotion in '09, he's under team control for 2010 and 2011.

Hardy had good seasons in 2007 and 2008 at the plate, putting up OPS+ numbers north of 100 both seasons, but was terrible last year (see stats below). He's decent defensively, though.

J.J. Hardy

#7 / Short Stop / Milwaukee Brewers

Height: 6-2

Weight: 190

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Aug 19, 1982

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - J.J. Hardy	115	414	53	95	16	2	11	47	43	85	0	1	.229	.302	.357

Joe Nathan's Not Losing His Fastball, Is He?

Jon Marthaler — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 20:25:26 -0000

More photos » by Tom Olmscheid - AP

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During last week's great "Joe Nathan: Trade Him?" debate, a friend of mine (who shall remain nameless) made the following point: "His fastball seems to have lost some hop (and not just in the final month of the season)."

Apart from all of the other arguments, this one I had to explore for myself - and thanks to the highly useful PitchFX tool at BrooksBaseball.Net and the PitchFX pages at FanGraphs.com, I had the tools I needed.

Let us deconstruct the above argument, and tackle some possibilities one by one.

Prop. #1: Joe Nathan's fastball has lost some hop.
Veracity: Probable.

First of all, let's be clear: the PitchFX data available only extends back to midway through the 2007 season. We can't use this to prove whether Nathan has dropped velocity since 2004, when he started closing games for Minnesota.

However, it's probable that he's lost some zip since then; after all, he was 29 back then. He'll be 35 next month. Of course he's not throwing as hard as he once did. Not everybody's Nolan Ryan, and can keep throwing hard until they're 68 years old.

That said, if you wanted to use that argument, then you should have used it two years ago.

Prop #2: Joe Nathan has RECENTLY lost some zip on the fastball.
Veracity: Questionable.

Looking back over 2008 and 2009, the numbers seem to speak pretty clearly. Nathan's average fastball in 2008 was 93.6 mph. In 2009, his average fastball was... 93.6 mph. (In the limited data from 2007, he was up around 95). Take a look at the following charts. (Update: Just to be clear, these graphs are from the super-wonderful PitchFX pages at FanGraphs.com. I trust their data and so should you.)

The first is a graph of his averages, for all of the data we have for the past three years:

The second shows his velocity ranges for his fastball, in the same time period:

I'm just eyeballing these graphs, so I can't tell you that these prove anything with any statistical certainty. But 2008 and 2009 look a lot alike, and I have a feeling that if you lined them all up in descending order, there'd be a lot of '08 appearances and '09 appearances intermingled. If anything, his fastball has been the same for two years.

So let's examine one more possible argument, about September and October this year.

Prop. #3: Joe Nathan lost something off his fastball in September.
Veracity: Doubtful.

I reviewed his average and max fastball speeds for all of his appearances in the regular season in September and October (a stretch in which he saved 12 of 13 games, had a 3.38 ERA, and allowed opponents to hit .158, by the way.)

In his 16 appearances, his average fastball was 93+ mph in 13 of them. Two of the other three came on 9/15 and 9/16, when he was pitching for the third and fourth day in a row.
In ten of those appearances, he threw at least one fastball faster than 94.
In two of those appearances, he touched 95 on the radar gun.

Ultimately, his fastball was more or less the same for the entire month - right in the 93-94 range consistently, day after day.

My conclusion

I think it's simple to sum up: sure, Nathan is older than he once was. He may not be able to throw as hard as he could at age 29. But over the past two years, he's maintained a remarkably consistent velocity on his fastball, and at 93-94 mph, he still throws plenty hard. I don't think a drop in velocity can be used as an argument for trading him.

Another Poll: How do you feel about management?

Jon Marthaler — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 03:31:01 -0000

More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

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The Twins won their fifth division title in eight years in 2009, beating the odds, the payroll mountain, and the Tigers and White Sox along the way. Nevertheless, there are plenty of people who are unhappy with team management. Lots of people want Bill Smith fired, for a number of reasons; some people also want Ron Gardenhire gone.

So, which camp are you in?

Poll

Whose side are you on in the Twins management debate?

They won the division, for goodness sake. Keep both, obviously.

556 votes

Fire Smith, keep Gardy.

212 votes

Fire Gardy, keep Smith.

36 votes

Fire 'em both.

65 votes

Who cares? NEW STADIUM WOO HOO!

84 votes

953 votes | Poll has closed

Morning After Poll: How are you doing?

Jon Marthaler — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 03:14:41 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

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We did this last year, so it's only fair to do a 2009 version as well. Twins baseball is over until April, and over forever in the Metrodome, and it's hard not to be a little bit sad about that.

That's certainly not the only feeling this morning, though. No doubt there's a certain amount of rage, some of it directed at Phil Cuzzi, much of it probably aimed at ~~Darrell Evans~~ Nick Punto.

So, how are you doing?

Poll

How are you feeling this morning?

Thrilled for next year: 2010's the year, baby!

135 votes

Still hoping for a chance to punch Phil Cuzzi.

136 votes

Still hoping for a chance to punch Nick Punto.

92 votes

Feeling defeated, after nine straight playoff-game losses.

159 votes

Feeling resigned to more exciting but ultimately disappointing years like this one.

124 votes

Bleary-eyed and hung over.

49 votes

695 votes | Poll has closed

Off Day Poll: How far can they go?

Jon Marthaler — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 14:10:59 -0000

It's playoff time once again. Amazingly, if you count one-game playoffs (and you should, I think), this is the sixth time in eight years that the Twins are participating in playoff baseball.

Today's poll question: how far do you think they'll go, this time?

Poll

How will the Twins do in the playoffs?

Lose Game 163 on Tuesday

79 votes

Lose to the Yankees in the ALDS

354 votes

Lose the ALCS

87 votes

Lose the World Series

19 votes

Win the whole thing. (This choice available for true optimists and true homers.)

295 votes

834 votes | Poll has closed

There's time for one more

Jon Marthaler — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 03:18:00 -0000

More photos » by Tom Olmscheid - AP

We're not ready to wave goodbye to the Dome quite yet.

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It's only fitting that, on the day the Twins were supposed to wave goodbye to the Metrodome, they ended up sticking around longer than they expected. We local Twins fans have to admit - though we bellyached long and loudly about the Teflon confines, the Dome has been good to us.

I grew up in outstate Minnesota, over 150 miles from the stadium. My Dad started taking me to games in 1987, when I was five, and for the rest of my childhood, we attended at least one game every summer. That's a bit of a drive to make. Never once did we have to worry about a rainout. As someone who lives in "The Cities" now, it's easy to forget that nearly all of Twins Territory resides where I once did - far enough away that a rainout almost qualified as a personal hardship. For my entire life, the Dome guaranteed I had no worries.

I think it's easy to underestimate the effect this had on the team, as well. The great Steve Lombardozzi admitted as much in a post-ceremony interview yesterday, telling Dick Bremer, "It was really nice to know exactly what the weather would be like every day," or words to that effect. The Twins haven't had to deal with bone-chilling, bees-in-the-bat-handle nights in April or October, at least not at home. They haven't had to play three months' worth of home games with the sun beating down, or with the humidity at 135% and the mosquitoes swarming. They haven't had an unscheduled, bullpen-exhausting home doubleheader in years. I'm not saying the team wasn't tough enough to play outside, but there are plenty of days in Minnesota when it's preferable to stay in the air-conditioned (or heated) living room, rather than hang out outside.

This doesn't even take into account the home-field advantage the stadium always seemed to confer. During big games, it was loud enough that players couldn't hear their own shouted conversations. The famous fly-ball-camouflaging roof has helped. The strange plastic mystique of the "Humph" has helped. As Kent Hrbek said at the celebration, "Where do we go when we need a win? We go to the Dome."

Plus, Whitey Herzog hated the stadium with a passion. That's gotta be a major mark in the positive column.

It'll always be the place where Hrbie rollicked and Kirby rolled. Where Brian Harper always fell behind 0-2 in the count, then got a hit. Where Butch Huskey tried to run directly through the left-field fence. Where we knew Greg Gagne deserved a Gold Glove, though he never won one. Where Tom Brunansky was the only one who could field a ball in right field. (And oh yeah, those world championship thingies, and the greatest baseball game ever, Game 7 in 1991.)

The Metrodome has been "Minnesota's Living Room," as they used to say. More than anything, though, for me, and for thousands of other Twins fans, the Dome is the first place we ever went to see the home team. It's where I caught my first batting-practice, real-live major-league baseball. It's where I got the Kent Hrbek-signed mini bat that is boxed up at home, waiting to be displayed in a prominent place in my first house. It's where I learned that food fights at big-league games are possible, where I learned that mustard is drawn inexorably to clean clothes, and where I learned that ice cream always tastes better out of an inverted batting helmet.

I'm not ready to give up on those memories quite yet. Good thing there's time for one more.

PPD: Twins @ Tigers

Jon Marthaler — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 03:15:10 -0000

UPDATE 6:45pm: We've given up for the night. Too much rain. A split doubleheader tomorrow, 11:05 and 6:05. I'm guessing FSN will televise both.

The rest of the game thread's still under the cut.

If you're not excited for tonight, you either don't care or aren't breathing. It's the series of the season, the series we'll remember.

If we're lucky, we'll see something like this, this week, and maybe it'll all end like this. (Click the links. Trust me.)

First Pitch: 6:10pm CDT
TV: FSN, MLB Network
Radio: Twins Radio Network
Know Thine Enemy: Bless You Boys

Probable Pitchers

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Nick Blackburn	11-11	31	31	3	0	0	0	191.2	230	100	89	24	40	89	4.18	1.41

Last week, I criticized Blackburn for his bad second half; it's only fair that I now give him some credit for his stretch run. His past two starts have resulted in wins, and though he gave up eight hits in each, he didn't walk a batter in either, and only three of those sixteen hits went for extra bases (two doubles and a homer). Consequently, he allowed just two runs in the first start and none in the second.

The last time the Twins were playing this pressure-packed a game, Blackburn was on the mound in Chicago in Game 163, and he gave up just one run on four hits in 6.1 innings. This makes me confident in his ability to pitch under pressure. For the Twins to win, he'll need to continue both his recent run of form, and his apparent tendency not to buckle.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Rick Porcello	14-9	29	29	0	0	0	0	158.2	165	78	73	22	49	80	4.14	1.35

Porcello is just 20 years old, and in his first major league season, so we've got no former pressure-packed starts to compare to. The Twins beat him 3-0 two starts ago, even though Porcello went six innings and gave up just the three runs. He bounced back to beat Cleveland, giving up just one run, though he needed 94 pitches to struggle through five innings. It's probably too much to expect him to suddenly lose it; after all, over the past two months, he has a 3.38 ERA and a 5-2 record, and is averaging nearly six innings a start.

Lineups

Lineup

Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers

09/28/09 6:10 PM CDT

Minnesota Twins	DETROIT TIGERS
Denard Span - CF	Curtis Granderson - CF
Orlando Cabrera - SS	Placido Polanco - 2B
Joe Mauer - C	Magglio Ordonez - RF
Jason Kubel - RF	Miguel Cabrera - 1B
Michael Cuddyer - 1B	Aubrey Huff - DH
Delmon Young - LF	Carlos Guillen - LF
Jose Morales - DH	Gerald Laird - C
Matt Tolbert - 3B	Brandon Inge - 3B
Nick Punto - 2B	Ramon Santiago - SS

Twins vs Tigers coverage

Once again, the poll: Will they do it?

Jon Marthaler — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 03:10:27 -0000

I've asked this question, in one way or another, twice this season. At the end of July, 45% of you thought the Twins couldn't win the division. Last week, 46% of you thought that they wouldn't.

Knowing what we now know - two back, seven to play, four in Detroit, etc. - I'll ask again, one more time.

Will they do it?

Poll

Will the Twins win the AL Central?

Yes

685 votes

No

375 votes

1060 votes | Poll has closed

It's everything we wanted

Jon Marthaler — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 02:42:45 -0000

A touch of honesty, to begin: I didn't expect this. I've been voting in polls and writing here and talking with friends for months now, and every time, I came out as a member of the Twins non-believers. Not with Morneau racked up, I'd say. Not without Crede's glove. Not with this bullpen, or later, not with Jeff-Brian "Armando" Manship-Duesinabino as the fourth, fifth, third, whatever starting pitcher.

They can't make a run, I said. Look at the schedule; out of the first five months, they had one three games above .500, one two games below, and three - incredibly - right at the .500 mark. They barely could run off four in a row, and more would apparently take a super-flu epidemic and some forfeits.

Seven with Detroit? I said, pish. Posh. There's no hope to win all seven; even winning five won't do it, they're just too far back. Last week I thought they couldn't win both series. Then I thought that they couldn't take the two games against Zach Grienke. And anyway, how are they doing this?

All of this is background, because here we are now. Two games back, with four to play in Detroit. I can't deny, nor can anyone else: this is a pennant race. It is late September, spilling into October, and the Twins will be playing pressure-packed meaningful baseball yet again, for the third year in a row.

It doesn't matter how these seven remaining games go. It's everything we could have hoped for.

Twelve American League teams are playing out the string, effectively. Three have the playoffs - and their positions - locked up; the other nine are thinking about the golf course, or just counting the months until it's February again, and time for baseball. Fans in Chicago and Baltimore and Seattle and Dallas have moved on to football. They're checking the score online, maybe glancing at the story buried on page 7 of the sports section, and that's it.

They're not glued to the TV set this week, screaming at umpires and managers and weak-hitting second basemen. They're not wasting hours out of their mornings at work, discussing the game with co-workers. They're not sharing knowing nods with other people in Twins hats on the way to lunch. They don't have buses running that flash "GO TWINS" every third iteration.

Isn't this why we're fans? To watch our team in a pennant race, to share the joys and sorrows with our friends and family and co-workers and co-posters, to become a community that's all pulling for the same outcome?

I rather think so. It's everything we wanted.

It hardly bears repeating, it's so obvious. But even so: Go Twins!