SB Nation User Blog: Jon Tollerud

Time for Reflection and Re-Commitment!

Jon Tollerud — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 18:37:28 -0000

Our team has now lost two games in a row. Yet there is no need to panic. There are still 8 games left with at minimum of 4 games that are fairly winnable. That doesn't mean gimme-games but they can be won. The other four are a little tougher but some of them are winnable too after watching the last few weeks. The other thing to remember is as of right now we own the tie breakers. #1 Indianapolis we have not played yet and they are undefeated. Right after that however is Denver #2 because we beat the #1 in the AFC East (New England) and the AFC North (Cincinnati) and we are #1 in the AFC West. Currently Pittsburgh is the #5 and San Diego is #6. That in itself is a lot to be excited about when the majority of us (myself included) saw us maybe making a shot at the Wild Card. So what do we have to do? As a Team the Broncos have to win the winnable games, Kansas City twice one more at Oakland and Washington. We also have to be competitive and play in the last four games. Philadelphia, Indianapolis, San Diego and The New York Giants, all have flaws that can be exploited. As fans, we need to surround our team with support, sell out Mile High to a Blue and Orange Crowd ONLY, and re-commit ourselves to the Mile High Team. Follow me to explore how...

Reflection:

Passing Game:

Kyle Orton now has a 2.25:1 touchdown to interception ratio. He is on pace for 3,676 yards 18 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. not bad stats. We know our strengths with Kyle are conservative passing and a run heavy attack. Kyle knows he has a lot of room to improve and remember it is still his first year n the offense. I will not make excuses, he played poorly last night, but think back in the past few years of how many times we have made excuses for poor performance- "Defense was bad"; "Running game couldn't get going"; "It was the receiver's fault". Kyle has said it was his fault and admits he had a lot to do with the loss last night and last week. Even if you don't think he is the long term answer at Quarterback, he is our starter so rally behind him for now! Brandon Marshall is learning to be smarter with the ball by not cutting back as much and getting what he can at the time. Eddie Royal is very effective when he is passed to, but he is also a threat enough to be game planned for by defenses which will limit his catches in a system that thrives on error free play. Brandon Stokely and Jabbar Gaffney need to be out there more and Daniel Graham and Tony Scheffler are contributing as much as they can.

Running Game:

I don't think I need to say that we stunk last night in this area. But the effectiveness of the running game is going to hurt or help your passing game. Right now, Denver has run the ball 202 times for 840 yards and a 4.16 average. If all you get is 4.16 (4.2) yards a play you are getting a first down every three plays. we are on pace for 1,680 yards right now which is not what Denver fans are used to. Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter have been fairly effective and Lamont Jordan and Peyton Hillis have helped here and there but from my point of view we are run first team and the run sets up the pass still. Averaging four yards per carry, we are putting our passing game in a good position to win, but we need to be more effective in the red zone. Our runners have contributed only 4 rushing TD's which is in no way effective in setting up the pass in the red zone. When you throw

Offensive Line:

We have a few issues here. First off we are currently geared in the middle to be a zone scheme. Ryan Harris and Ryan Clady can do well however they are asked to play. Chris Kuper needs a little more time for learning the gap system but, I think we are seeing the end for Ben Hamilton in Denver. Casey Weigmann is doing fine but not spectacular. The Depth Of Tyler Polumbus, Seth Olsen and Russ Hochstein is geared to that gap system as well. I think we need to play to our strengths and run a little more Zone Blocking but if we dont then the players really need to step it up and play as the coaches ask.

On offense in general, this is a new system and will take a little time to learn. Remember Josh McDaniels was the OC in New England for one year before Tom Brady and the offense exploded into the record books. I am not saying we are going to shatter record books but I do think we shoudl give Kyle Orton and our offense at least one more year before we doom them to failure.

Defensive Line:

For having "perennial back ups" as starters you could not ask for a better performance than we have seen from our front three. As Steve Nichols (hoosierteacher) says, "It starts in the trenches."These three guys may not get the notoriety (though Kenny Peterson caused the fumble last night) but they get the job done. The rotation here keeps them fresh and helps them play harder every down.

Linebackers:

What can you say, Elvis Dumervil is having a great season tied for most sacks in the league, DJ Williams and Andra Davis are playing at top flight level and Mario Haggan has earned his starting job. Their back ups play well when needed Wesley Woodyard comes up big at times and Robert Ayers has shown up too. Spencer Larsen returned and played well on special teams so there isn't a whole lot to be desired here. However, the few things they need to fix are tackling a little harder, not selling out on their assignment and shedding blocks needs to improve.I think I would like to see a little more 3-3-5 package out there, especially when teams run a big package with 3 Wide Receivers.

Secondary:

last night Ty Law needed to play more. Josh Barret should not have been covering Hines Ward on that touchdown. These guys don't give up a lot of big plays, but when they do they can get burned by them. Last night was evidence. We really need to allow the safeties to be safeties in some situations. Since we run a 3-4/ 5-2 scheme we really shouldn't need too much help at the line like I saw last night.

To me having a team who is 3rd in points allowed, 3rd in total yards allowed (7th against the pass, 8th against the run) 11th in 3rd % allowed 3rd in sacks 4th in first downs allowed means that this year our defense is not killing us.

I am one of those guys who expected this year to be a rebuilding year. As we have seen it is. We can compete with the middle of the pack teams, we can blow out the lower teams, but this year I don't think we have competed with the BIG BOYS like we should if we are a BIG BOY ourselves. It took a miracle catch to beat Cincinnati, overtime to beat New England. We lost to Pittsburgh and Baltimore so we are 2-2 against the BIG BOYS. We have work to do, but that doesn't mean we can't support our team or even be proud of where we are today. Like John Bena(Guru) said, keep your expecations where the were before we were 6-0 and enjoy the season. I was a 9-7 guy with High hopes of 11-5. For the record here was my season prediction:

@ Cincinnati W 1-0

Cleveland W 2-0

@ Oakland W 3-0

Dallas W 4-0

New England L 4-1

@ San Diego L 4-2

@ Baltimore L 4-3

Pittsburgh L 4-4

@ Washington W 5-4

San Diego W 6-4

New York Giants L 6-5

@ Kansas City W 7-5

@ Indianapolis L 7-6

Oakland W 8-6

@ Philadelphia L 8-7

Kansas City W 9-7

So now I am pleasantly surprised and will watch what happens. if we play out like my prediction we are 11-5 which was my high expectation.

GO BRONCOS

Poll

Where do we end?

Jack Williams... My opinion

Jon Tollerud — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 22:44:08 -0000

Write it down, I am not a sycophant! The Broncos made a move I am a little confused about. Signing Ty Law is not a bad move. Law will bring some added knowledge to the defensive secondary. The move I question is releasing Jack Williams. I have a few reasons for this...

No matter who the Veteran is, signing a veteran towards the end of his career and releasing a young talented player screams either "we're desperate" or "We are one player away" neither mantra is what I feel about the 2009 Denver Broncos. I am not saying Jack Williams is the next Tyrone Braxton, nor am I saying he is the next Deltha O'Neal. I think he is a player who has a lot of pure talent. He reminds me a lot of Darrent Williams. Raw around the edges but with coaching could be a great player.

On the other side of that coin is Jack may not be very coachable. there are many more knowledgeable than me who have said as much. I am guessing they are closer to the truth than I but time will be the telling factor there.

The otehr question is WHY Jack?

guys who are weekly inactives are in my opinion more of a candidate to be cut than a guy who is weekly on the active roster. Guy who dont make the starting 43 week in and out need to be looked at first. Brandon Lloyd, Brandon Gorin these guys are depth at deep positions and are consistently inactive.

I am just a guy who has a few smart remarks but I am genuinely confused by this and may need more time and fact to process this which is where YOU come in. below this....

Poll

Is it ok to let Jack Williams go? (nothing to do with Ty)

Happy Birthday Terrell Davis

Jon Tollerud — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 06:29:24 -0000

via members.chello.at

Appalogies to the Great T.D. This should have been posted earlier today! Happy Birthday TD!

From Wikipedia

Terrell Lamar Davis (born October 28, 1972 in San Diego, California) is a former American football running back who played for the Denver Broncos of the National Football League from 1995 to 2001. Davis was drafted by the Broncos in the sixth round (196th pick overall) of the 1995 NFL Draft. Davis is the Denver Broncos all-time leading rusher, with 7,607 rushing yards. When he played, he was often called T.D., for "touchdown," by players, fans and the media.

Super Bowl XXXII

In the Super Bowl, Davis rushed for 157 yards, caught 2 passes for 8 yards, and became the first player in Super Bowl history ever to score 3 rushing touchdowns. This performance earned him MVP honors despite having to sit out the second quarter due to a migraine, an affliction he has suffered with most of his life.

Davis' 8 touchdowns in his three playoff games and the Super Bowl gave him a total of 48 points, the most ever scored in a single postseason. This record would stand until surpassed by kicker Adam Vinatieri's 49 points in the 2006–07 postseason.

Super Bowl XXXIII

In 1998, Davis rushed for 2,008 yards, then the third highest rushing total in history. This performance earned him league MVP honors, his third straight AFC rushing title, his first NFL rushing title, and his second time being named NFL Offensive Player of the Year by the Associated Press. At the end of the season, the Broncos beat the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl XXXIII, with Davis recording 102 rushing yards and 50 receiving yards.

Super Bowl XXXIII was the last postseason game Davis would play in. In his 8 postseason games from 1996 to 1998, his numbers were staggering: 204 carries for 1,140 yards and 12 touchdowns, along with 19 receptions for 131 yards. This included a streak of 7 consecutive games with over 100 rushing yards, all of which the Broncos won, breaking the previous record for consecutive 100 rushing yard postseason games held by John Riggins (6). Even in the sole playoff game in which Davis didn't gain 100 rushing yards, he still had an impressive performance, rushing for 91 yards and a touchdown and catching 7 passes for 27 yards.

Davis was sent to the Pro Bowl in the 1996, ’97, and ’98 seasons. Nicknamed "TD," Davis popularized the "Mile High Salute," a military-style salute given to fans and teammates in celebration of a touchdown.

Contract Negotiations- Defense

Jon Tollerud — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 08:50:58 -0000

In Collaboration with my good friends Jeremy Bolander and EJ Ruiz, I bring you a little piece to help your BYE Week Blues. It took some time and some effort to get all the data needed for this hence the second half of the Bye week posting time. We have a few players coming up on the end of their contracts this year. What we are going to attempt to do in this little series is look at draft prospects that could replace potential Free Agents. I will also give my opinion on the cost of retaining and if I think the player will be retained. I get the privilege of presenting you with our defensive contracts in this post. We only have a very few defensive players up for contract this year despite what your Madden video game may say.

Josh Barrett (Restricted Free Agent)
Ryan McBean
Elvis Dumervil

The list isn't too long but the players are a bit of an enigma to me. This is how I think it should be dealt with:

Josh Barrett: (SAF)

Josh is a restricted free agent which means we can play the first rights game. From his initial scouting reports:

Strengths: Exceptional athlete...great size...at 225 could play weak-side linebacker in the NFL...superb speed at 4.35....hits like a rock...adds value to special teams on kickoffs and punt returns....can roam sideline to sideline...excels in zone-coverage...Can slide down and cover slot receivers as well as tight-ends...uses leverage to break off blocks...
Negatives: Struggles in man to man coverage...failed to build on his junior season... easily bites on play-action and pump fakes...focuses too much on the quarterback and backfield...although he has excellent straight line speed struggles in change of direction...what position will he play in the NFL?...strong against the run...injuries are a concern...
Overall: Barrett is a fantastic athlete and great strong safety prospect. His speed to line up against slot receivers along with his overall presence in the middle of the field will strike fear in opposing receivers. Barrett might be best suited to add 10-15 pounds and slide down to weak-side linebacker, where he could excel into an excellent player.

Some of this we have seen and some of it we haven't. Personally I think Barrett adds a lot to the table when it comes to being a "Big Corner" and covering a TE. He did well with Gates and Gonzalez so far and has shown brilliance on special teams. I would tag him with a second round tag and see what happens there. Because he is restricted we can always match the offer given to him or we get compensation in the form of a second round pick. We can then use that pick on a few options:

Justin Allen- USF
Justin Woodall- Alabama
Kam Chancellor- Virginia Tech

What jumps out with these guys are versatility and smart football play. Not many things get past these guys, Woodall has kept BAMA going on D a lot. He might not make the tackles every time but he puts others in position to keep the other team put! Chancellor may have kept Virginia Tech's big bowl game aspirations alive

Ryan McBean: (DL)

Ryan has spent a lot of time as a practice squad guy for both us and Pittsburgh. It is interesting to see the way he has developed and to bring to light things that were said when he initially entered the NFL:

Strengths: Ryan McBean has shown glimpses of greatness throughout his playing career at Oklahoma State. He is exceptionally strongand has good size, but the more important aspect to Ryan McBean is that he is no where near "maxing" out his size and has room to get bigger and stronger and add several pounds of muscle to his 6'4 frame. He has an excellent motor, and does not quit, and he is another DT prospect who, once coached up will be able to knock down passes at the line of scrimmage. He delivers a shot on the ball carrier when he gets a hold of them, and has the potential to be a defensive tackle who could generate sacks at the NFL level.
Weaknesses: Lacks power throughout his 6'4 frame, and needs to bulk up to sustain success in the National Football League. Ryan McBean needs to work on taking on the oppositions block and becoming a strong force in run defense. McBean also needs some work on fundamentals, most notably using his hands properly to gain an advantage in the trenches. Ryan McBean will need a crash course on NFL IQ and will take time to develop, so one can not expect a complete package when drafting Ryan McBean.
Overall:There are a lot of things to like about Ryan McBean and there is a substantial amount of "upside" to his game. Ryan McBean is a work in progress and you may not see the initial results you would like, but you will be hard-pressed to find a mid-round prospect with a higher potential "ceiling". Ryan McBean most assuredly needs to get the NFL playbook and into the weight room immediately, but he is a prospect who could slip through the cracks and be drafted early on Day Two and out perform where he is selected.He also may project as a 3-4 DE or a 4-3 NT.

It was thought he needed some time to develop and has done so. In my opinion he is a good rotational player (the way we have used him) and has probably earned himself a bigger contract. However given the amount of money needed to retain other positions, I don't see us keeping him on unless it is for a very low paying contract something in the range of 3 years and 4 million guaranteed. That being said here are some of the replacements available in the draft:

Brandon Graham- Michigan
Derrick Morgan- Georgia Tech
Alex Carrington- Arkansas St.
Terrance Cody- Alabama
Marvin Austin- UNC

All these guys would replace McBean well. The options get great with drafting Cody. You can move Thomas/ Fields/ Baker all over. They all have a lot of work that needs to be put in to them to make them top notch players but they can get it under Nolan.

Elvis Dumervil (OLB/DE)

Elvis is one of my favorite players. First he was too small to impact the College system. After basically re-defining a pass rush specialist he was too small for the NFL level. All he has done is perform and generate sacks and hurries. The kid has done everything he has been asked to do including switch to rush linebacker. I would love for us to keep him on this team. His team first mentality leads me to believe this is doable however he is going to want (and he deserves) fair compensation for his work. Somewhere to the tune on five years and 10 - 15 Million guaranteed. Is he worth it? Absolutely, but if we don't want to keep him because we drafted Robert Ayers last year and he can step up and do it, here are a few Linebackers that may catch coaches eye:

Sean Witherspoon- Missouri
Perry Riley- LSU
Luther Brown- USC

With these guys they need a lot of polish but have the basics you look for if you are going to replace Elvis. Coaching can turn them into productive players as they all have high motors and great pass rush skills. They all struggle slightly in coverage (Brown especially), but that can be taught at this level.

I realize that it isn't a full blown scouting gig but this is merely to get you excited about the fact that we have a good coach/GM combo who will find solid replacements.

EJ has a great view up on the offense!

GO BRONCOS!

Poll

Who would you let go if you had to let one go?

Elvis Dumervil

1 votes

Josh Barrett

32 votes

Ryan McBean

65 votes

98 votes | Poll has closed

Not here to brag about Orton/ diss Cutler

Jon Tollerud — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 21:45:55 -0000

As you can probably tell by my avtar I am a Broncos fan. First off the title is true, I am not here to rip on Cutler or say "we won the trade." I am here to support your Quarterback.

Jay has the ability to be the best QB in the league. He is more physically gifted than Manning or Brady. He lacks concentration at times and relies on his abilities rather than his brains to make the play . Some times that can be disastrous. Other times His decision making, internal clock and all that Jazz are what need to be fixed. The options out there as QB coach are relatively think anymore so I wanted to bring a few of those guys to light as possible hires as OC/HC options next year.

Gary Kubiak- Developed Jake Plummer into a game winner and had him become less error prone while he was in Denver. Cutler lost out on his tutelidge because He took the HC job in Houston. If Houston misses the playoffs there is a chance he will be availible as OC.

Jim Zorn- Chances of him remaining HC in Washington after this season are slim. He could be had as a QB Coach/ OC (No play calling duties). As a QB Coach he can do a pretty good job.

Todd Haley- Another good OC that maybe in over his head in KC.

Mike Shannahan- If you want to get rid of Jerry Angelo and Lovie I think this is your man. He will pander to Jay Cutler but he will help him grow as well.

Norv Turner- Ron's Brother is a little better OC than Ron. He also is in over his head as a HC so he might not mind the demotion.

Keep in mind we took a former HC who was in over his head in Nolan and we have a pretty stellar Defense.

just some thoughts and look forward to playing you guys again. Maybe this time we make more of a game out of it.

Cheers and best wishes on the season!

FYI Guys and Gals

Jon Tollerud — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 09:18:33 -0000

FYI Guys and Gals

How to build a Football Team- the right way

Jon Tollerud — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 21:29:45 -0000

We have heard countless "experts" and "analysts" give their opinions on how to build a team. It doesn't really matter who it is, they have said that Coach Josh McDaniels went about it the wrong way, then they are "surprised" by our 5-0 start and have to ask the question "Are the Denver Broncos for real?" There are many things that can be said about this, from saying these guys are idiots to saying they are just saying it to get ratings. Whatever you believe, I personally believe that What Josh McDaniels did was not a new concept, but "shocked" the pundits because at their very core, they have no concept of how to build a team. I have no fact to support this thoery only ones to support the fact that McDaniels does know how to build a team and dare I say it...a Dynasty. Let's jump into this...

BroncoBear covered a lot of this very well in his Josh McDaniels/ Bill Bellicheck series Part 1 and Part 2. Those two posts are not only recomended reading but should, in my opinion, be mandatory reading for any Bronco fan to understand the direction we are heading in. It gives us a deeper perspective than anything written outside MHR.

Team Building- Where it starts:

Leadership, that is all I can say. It starts at the top with accountability.

Josh McDaniels came in as the head coach and immediately took responsibility for this team. He went a step further and is quoted as saying his team in 2008. Now I may be getting older but I dont remmber Josh patrolling OUR sideline last year. That to me spoke volumes of his integrity. Coach then brought in Leaders for the team. Coaches players all around the board that fit the "team first" mentality he wanted here. Evidence by Darrell Reid's Tweet immidately after the New England game. No one player is above the team which brought on his first headache.

Jay Cutler was by even my own admission about to come into his own this year. Under the leadership of McDaniels Jay could have become the BEST quarterback in teh NFL this year. All of his tools that he himself brings to the table plus the leadership mentorship and coaching McDaniels could give him. Then the whole rumor mill got started and Jay was on his way out because he felt ABOVE the team. When the whole thing started it showed me what type of Leader Jay was and I was ready to ship him out. He is gone not because of what happened in the rumor mill but because of how he handled it, in my opinion. Instead we have the trusty Kyle Orton who may not have the flair Cutler had definately has the gears to make the QB position set.

Coach's second headache was another "me" player. Brandon Marshall was probably worried about his production in a new system with a Quarterback that he wasn't too familiar with. thats understandable for a guy whos paycheck depends on how much he produces. Instead of going to the grindstone he acted selfishly and he paid the price with a team enforced suspension. He is back on the wagon now and his "production" has gone up. he may not have the yards but by golly he has the wins and touchdowns to show for his effort.

Coach came in with a plan, a team first plan. He has done well showing us how it plays out. For example, one of our most explosive players, Eddie Royal, has not been used to fantasy players or past production designs. Why is that? Has Josh written him out of the playbook?No way, we have something this year like no other year. Blanaced options. If you have Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, Brandon Stokely, Knowshon Moreno, Correll Buckhalter and Daniel Graham out there as receiving options who do you "uncover" to blitz Kyle Orton? Who gets less coverage? Which guy is the hot route? Who is the primary in the play? Answers are every single one of them is a danger to the opposition. Eddie has probably been covered better than others so look for him to up his production here now.

This team is balanced but there is more too it. This team is deep and personally I think we are not building a team, I think we are building a ...

Dynasty- A sports dynasty is a team that dominates their sport or league for multiple seasons or years. Such dominance is often only realized in retrospect. Whether a team has achieved a dynasty is often subjective, and can be a frequent topic of debate among sports fans.(Wikipedia.com)

To create a Dynasty you must do a few things right. It requires three people to be absolutely top in their game. For examples I will use our current NFL "Dynasty" the New England Patriots.

Owner- The owner must be good at hiring his staff, paying them what it takes to keep them their and picking staff members early on that will replace those already there. He must also allow His staff to do their job and not interfere in areas he does not need to. For example Robert Kraft hired a castoff coach and a GM and said "Do your jobs!" they did and they worked well together. He also hired guys who worked out well in their system such as Pioli, Weise, Crennel, Mangini and McDaniels. Regardless of how they work out in their new jobs thy were a fit in New England.

General Manager (GM)- The GM must hire a good scouting department and work with the coach to draw the right free agents and negotiate the contracts of key players and coaches to keep the team moving. Drafting is a 50/50 gig with the Head Coach and he must be able to work with the head coach to develop a team that is competative year in and year out. The goal of a GM is to sign and play every player drafted every year. Scott Pioli before his move to Kansas City worked his job well in New England. He complimented his coaches work on the field by finding signing and drawing talent to the team off the field.

Head Coach- The Head Coach is responsible for hiring asisstant coaches and coordinators that will get the most out of every player the team signs. He is responsible for hiring a training staff that will help keep injuries off the team and implementing a training camp and practice that will help make the team competative in every game they play. Along with the General Manager he is responisble for drafting and using the players according to their skill set. The Head Coach needs to ensure his team is a team that will draw interest from Free Agent players. The Coach must also make sure the depth behind starters is adequate to ensure competativeness even if the starter goes down with an injury. He is soley responsible for wins and losses. Bill Bellicheck, like him or hate him, he has done well with the job description. He consitently draws Free Agent talent, drafts well and plays competative in every game.

A few quotes on team building that I want to share with you:

Coming together is a beginning. Keeping together is progress. Working together is success.
- Henry Ford
We must all hang together, or assuredly, we shall all hang separately.
- Benjamin Franklin
Teamwork is the fuel that allows common people to attain uncommon results.
- Unknown
ingredient on a team, but one man cannot make a team.
-Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Light is the task where many share the toil.
-Homer (not Simpson)
When a team outgrows individual performance and learns team confidence, excellence becomes a reality.
- Joe Paterno
Talent wins games, but teamwork and intelligence wins championships.
- Michael Jordan
Individual commitment to a group effort, that is what makes a team work, a company work, a society work, a civilization work.
-Vince Lombardi
Teamwork divides the task and double the success.
- Unknown

Now to what Josh McDaniels is doing right:

Coach is allowing people to grow in their abilities and talents while challenging them to expand those areas. He brought in Leadership/ Hard workers/ talent at all positions and has a teaching coaching staff. He has brought in depth at all of those categories by drafting team leaders/ hard workers/ talent in every position. He has used his and his staff's teaching abilities to get the best product on the field. He has added accountability from everywhere on this team. Guys are taking responsibility for their actions and working to overcome their mistakes. Coach himself after beating the Oakland raiders said we can play better we can coach better we can come out better. think about that, he just demolished a division rival and said we got a lot of work to do! I was sold at that point and drinking everything that he was pouring. After beating the patriots he simply said we are better than what you saw today. 5-0 and we can play better? well pardon me if I want that! We dont sit either. After the Oakland game in which we man-handled our opponents he said tackles were missed assignments we not covered and we would have to fix that. I STILL get chills when i re watch that press conference.

Coach is adding depth and talent to this team and we will see it come to fruitition in the years to come. Will we win the division this year? Dunno. Will we make the playoffs? Dunno. Will we be competative this year? ABSO-FRIGGIN-LOUTELY!

GO BRONCOS!!!

Poll

Are the Denver Broncos a Dynasty in the making?

Yes, Pour me some Kool-Aid baby!

125 votes

No, get off the drugs and out of Papi's Van

6 votes

Maybe, I need a few more years to tell!

53 votes

184 votes | Poll has closed

The War on Attrition

Jon Tollerud — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 23:54:13 -0000

One of the many things that excite me about football is the intense play week in and week out. One of the down sides to the intensity however, is injuries. Last season the Broncos like many teams were hit with a slew of injuries. This year we are having a few here and there but they are small and limited in their time span with the lone exception being Spencer Larsen (FB/LB). This is called the Not For Long league for a reason. The question has become, not if your favorite football team is far superior to other football teams but rather, "Is my team deep enough to win the war of attrition?" Just like the war on terrorism it is a constant battle. Each team has to be vigilant at practice (Homeland Security), during games (Operation Enduring Freedom), and many other areas (note to those who read this, I am not politicizing this just noticing a similarity). So how do the Broncos stack up? Can we win a skirmish with attrition for 2009? Can we make it 16 games? Let's find out:

To do this at a fair rate we have to set a scale we can use for every team. A player is rated 1-10 with a minimum of 6 for starter and max of 7 for depth. You can take this formula to any team and use it (I may do it later for each team we play, but who knows). Then you take the total score and divide by total possible to come up with the chance of being better than the opponent. This means that having 30 RB's doesn't mean you are deeper if you have one 8 and twenty-nine 2's (62%) and the other team has one 9 a 7 and 5 (86%). The system is slightly flawed in that it is my opinion of the players value and I may have to use an unbiased system to help that (suggestions always welcome). Anyway on to the ranks:

Quarterback:

Total 53%- This looks bad, but to be honest, its accurate. Kyle looks good but he does need to be tested on the deep ball to get an more accurate picture. If he were to get injured how many of you would feel comfortable with one of the other two taking over this year? I am not sold at this time we could win many games with Simms or Brandstater as our starter. Just an opinion.

Running Back:

Correll Buckhalter (8)
Knowshon Moreno (7)
Peyton Hillis (6)
Lamont Jordan (5)

Total 65%- I think I may be personally under-rating our RB corps but based on what I have seen this is it. Buck and KnoMo look good in splitting but who does KnoMo split with if buck goes down? Hillis while an beast of a man has had problems early on. I know there are theories to it but until I see it on the field that's what I have to give. I would not be comfortable giving Jordan more than 7 carries a game.

Wide Receiver:

Brandon Marshall (10)
Eddie Royal (8)
Brandon Stokely (7)
Jabar Gaffney (7)
Brandon Lloyd (5)
Kenny McKinley (5)

Total 70%- Name me 5 WR you would take over Marshall ‘cause I can only name 3 (Fitzgerald, Boldin, Moss). I think Eddie is doing exactly what is asked and drawing a lot of attention (I think he will have a good game against NE). Don't even have to talk injuries when your two leading receivers aren't even top of the depth chart!

Offensive Line:

Ryan Clady (10)
Ryan Harris (9)
Ben Hamilton (8)
Chris Kuper (8)
Casey Weigmann (8)
Russ Hotchiens (7)
Tyler Polumbus (7)
Seth Olsen (6)

Total 78%- Greatest strength. We have already had some subbing go on here and they have done fairly well. I think that we will end up happy with this group (which is young and will only get better).

Defensive Line:

Ronald Fields (8)
Kenny Peterson (7)
Ryan McBean (7)
Vonnie Holliday (7)
LeKevin Smith (7)
Marcus Thomas (7)
Chris Baker (4)

Total 67%- Pretty good here. I think in this system any of these guys could be pegged the starter and its definitely a credit to Nolan that I say that.

Linebacker:

DJ Williams (10)
Andra Davis (8)
Elvis Dumervil (10)
Mario Haggan (7)
Wesley Woodyard (7)
Darrell Reid (7)
Spencer Larsen (6)
Robert Ayers(6)
Jarvis Moss (5)

Total 73%- Funny how 3 months ago I would have guessed around 50%. It amazes me still how we have done this, we have the ability to sub out switch and start any one we doggone want to!

Defensive Backfield:

Total 72%- I just am surprised at how deep we are on defense. It shows a lot about our coaches and players when you see numbers like this. Very Good

So based on these numbers:

Our offense scores a 58% (58% of the time we will win the war on attrition). 121
Our defense Scores a 71% (71% of the time we will win the war on attrition).178
As a Team we score a 60%. To me that is a good thing!

Again I state my opinion maybe slightly biased. These numbers may be slightly skewed here and there but they are based on how I think the team would play if someone went down with an injury. 60% of the time we would play better than our opponent (again not knowing the opponents WOA rating effects this). That to me says 6/10 times (games) we end up better. Now that's not factoring in training and what not, things like training staffs and the like factor into this in real life but we are a fairly strong paper tiger (thanks Zappa). If you figure this into the season (Coach is a math guy and this is math) playing 16 games and barring injuries of a serious nature we are looking at around a 10-6 record!

Intersting notes- Orton vs. our other "game manager"

Jon Tollerud — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 20:30:23 -0000

So I was wondering earlier today on twitter (Follow me @JTollerud) how Kyle Orton and Jake Plummer compare. Jake Plummer wasnt a superstar bu the guy won games for us.

I took Jake's first 38 games and compared them to Kyle's 36 (yeah shocked me when I realized he has only played 36 games). Interesting comparisons

via a.espncdn.com

Jake Plummer QB Arizona-

Comp- 682 Att- 1197 57.0% 41TD 59INT

via a.espncdn.com

Kyle Orton QB Chicago/Denver

Comp- 554 Att- 1001 55.3% 33TD 27INT

Very interesting breakdown statistically. I am not a stats guy so i take these with a grain of salt but it is interesting to note how they compare similarly in poor systems. Now Statistics will say that Jake's career QB rating was 75, his TD to INT ration was 1:1 (161:161) but when he came to Denver all we did was win, playoff appearances, AFC Champ game, he won games for us, there was a stretch where he went 7 or 8 games without an INT even. It took him a while to mature but Plummer became a game manager you could rely on. I think Orton is in the same mold, and given the chance will bring similar if not more success for us.

I only own a handful of jerseys, Elway Davis Sharpe McCaffrey Smith Plummer and now Dawkins and Royal. Never bought any others dont want em!

I say give Orton a chance to show you what kind of QB he can be!

Tale of Four Quarterbacks

Jon Tollerud — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 23:00:17 -0000

Once there were four guys who wanted to be Quarterback. Of these four guys two played a conservative game and two played a devil may care game. Two were touted as amazing gifted and top notch, two were considered questionable. One of these quarterbacks has become a household name, the other three are on the cusp of finding their identity. Lets look at these four quarterbacks a little more.

When comparing players, quarterbacks especially it is difficult to judge sucess. Different styles of play, differnt offenses and different mind sets come into play and can affect statisics. For example, a quarterback may have a 50% completion record but 0 interceptions whe another may have a 60% completion record but 10 interceptions. To me, I would take the QB with 50% because he, in my mind takes care of the football. Some however may want the 60% and are willing to give up the interceptions. So using this logic that stats can be decieving I am going to use stats as best I can to show you these four quarterbacks. I will use their first season where they played a minimum of ten games.

QB1:

Comp. % 63.3 TD 18 INT 12 Ratio (TD:Int) 1.5:1

QB2:

Comp. % 63.6 TD 20 INT 14 Ratio (TD:Int) 1.4:1

QB3:

Comp. % 53.8 TD 13 INT 8 Ratio (TD:Int) 1.6:1

QB4:

Comp. % 51.6 TD 9 INT 13 Ratio (TD:Int) 0.7:1

Now thats their first year of 10+ games. Infact all of them played 15 that year. None of these QB's look impressive do they? Infact I am sure you guys have some players in mind when you see these.Maybe I should take their first 2 years total and see how it adds up

QB1:

Comp. % 63.7 TD 18 INT 12 Ratio (TD:Int) 1.5:1

QB2:

Comp. % 62.6 TD 29 INT 19 Ratio (TD:Int) 1.5:1

QB3:

Comp. % 53.9 TD 15 INT 12 Ratio (TD:Int) 1.3:1

QB4:

Comp. % 52.0 TD 12 INT 15 Ratio (TD:Int) 0.8:1

Still none of these quarterbacks are awe inspiring. Now some have had more time to develop than others in fact one of these Quarterbacks is only in his third year so, how do you find equal stats? same # of games? probably not. Career stats are hard when one has been around forever and one hasnt right? okay how about career Completion percentage and TD to Int ratio?

QB1:

Comp% 62.9 Ratio 2.3:1

QB2 :

Comp% 62.6 Ratio 1.4:1

QB3:

Comp% 52.1 Ratio1:1

QB4:

Comp% 55.3 Ratio 1.2:1

Interesting isnt it? Now one thing I have to say is that three of these quarterbacks have shared two offensive coordinators so now here is an interesting stat set

QB1 with OC1

68.8% 6.3:1 (TD:Int)

QB4 with OC1

55.7% 3:0 (TD:Int)

QB2 with OC2

64.4% 1.2:1 (TD:Int)

QB4 with OC2

55.3% 1.1:1 (TD:Int)

Interesting how OC1 made his QB's look stellar and OC2 leaves room to wonder. Now I had to go with college stats cause that might do it right? ok:

QB1:

Comp% 62.3 Ratio 1.8:1

QB2:

Comp% 59.7 Ratio 2.2:1

QB3:

Comp% 60.7 Ratio 6.2:1

QB4:

Comp% 61.9 Ratio 2.5:1

Now there are some more stats for you crazy how in the right system people can do well QB1 in the NFL in the sysytem he is in and QB4 in his college system. Now if he finds an NFL system for him he may turn out great! QB2 and QB3 look like they are who they were in college so no surprises there.

Interesting facts:

QB1 and QB4 were drafted in the 2-7th round and QB2 and QB3 were top 15 picks.

now when you look through these stats add to this...

QB1- Tom Brady

QB2- Jay Cutler

QB3- JaMarcus Russell

QB4- Kyle Orton

just some food for thought here. Brady is the Control here just for information.

Poll

who would be your choice at QB

Orton

79 votes

Cutler

35 votes

Russell

2 votes

116 votes | Poll has closed