Jonathan Willis
Nov 19, 2008 May 29, 2012 751 1166
Jonathan Willis has been covering hockey for a variety of websites since April 2008. In addition to his work at the Edmonton Journal's Cult of Hockey blog, his work can also be found at ESPN, Oilers Nation, Leafs Nation, Canucks Army and Hockey Prospectus. Previously, he spent two years writing for theScore about both the NHL and special events like the Olympics and World Junior Championships. He first covered hockey as the founder of the website Copper & Blue, and later as its managing editor under the SBNation banner. He is skeptical of narrative, and a comically bad left-shooting right-winger.
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Jason Zucker was drafted with the reputation of being a defense-first guy with problems finishing, but his numbers in college suggest that the offense has come along, and he’s the icing on the cake for the Wild here. Mikael Granlund, the ninth overall pick, is a superb player while sixth-round pick Johan Gustafsson has been lights-out tending net in Sweden this year. Toss in the second-round trio of Zucker, Larsson and Bulmer and 2010 might end up as a huge year for the Wild.
Scoring Chances, Game 1, Detroit vs. Nashville
by Jonathan Willis on Apr 12, 2012 12:05 PM EDT
on Winging It In Motown
The headline over on the main page got it exactly right - the Red Wings couldn't overcome the bounces and Pekka Rinne. As it turns out, they ended up out-chancing the Predators 19-16 overall on the night. After the jump, the breakdown.
Cam Barker: Still Terrible
Cam Barker has sat out the last dozen games after wearing out his welcome in his third NHL city. If only Oilers management had stopped by here last summer.
"We have a much better team than the results and standings show, and we know that."
General Manager Steve Tambellini, on the Oilers' official website.
David Musil - #14 in the Copper & Blue’s Top 25 Under 25
by Jonathan Willis on Feb 7, 2012 1:30 PM EST
in Prospects
on The Copper & Blue
When it comes to evaluating prospects, the defensive defensemen is one of the hardest types to judge from any distance. Goaltenders of course are in a whole other world, with the prized, franchise-goalie in waiting routinely shelved in favour of the 26-year old with an unpronounceable name who was brought in on a whim. After that most mercurial of positions, however, comes the defensive defenseman. They develop slowly, they can look awful at times, points are irrelevant, plus-minus is rendered all but useless thanks to the fact that the best of them play against the best shooters and typically start in their own end of the arena, and any objective line in the sand is all but impossible to find.
David Musil is a defensive defenseman.
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Relationship Between Blue Jackets' Shots and Scoring Chances
Thanks to the great work done on this blog, it's possible to see if the Blue Jackets are getting scoring chances at the same rate as they are shots. The answer? the Jackets have generated 11 scoring chances for compared to every 10 against, and 10.9 shots for compared to every 10 against. In other words, the shot data and scoring chance data, at the team level, is nearly identical.
Greg Zanon and the Holy Wars
Where I argue, from an advanced stats perspective, that Greg Zanon is a useful player for the Minnesota Wild.
Editor's note: This is another stats based post. This time, however, the author actually includes the stats and explains how the conclusions were reached, rather than just forcing you to trust his judgment. It seems the stats say Zanon is a pretty good player.
Grudgingly Accepting the Wisniewski Deal
While the Wisniewski deal looked like a massive overpay at first, it's not nearly so bad once one delves into his track record over the last two seasons.
Thomas is 26 goals better than his own personal average this season. Boston wouldn't have lost all of those goals had Thomas played at that level, but it's not inconceivable that they would be 9th in the East today. Regardless of where they'd be in that alternate universe, they are slated for some serious regression over the rest of the season
Gabriel Desjardins, 1/29/11. Tim Thomas' save percentage on 1/29/11: 0.945. Since: 0.913.
Nugent-Hopkins Can't Score At Evens
Looks like Nugent-Hopkins is well back of Gabriel Landeskog and Sean Couturier at even-strength offence:
- Couturier: 44GP, 48 PTS
- Landeskog: 33GP, 35 PTS
- Nugent-Hopkins: 52GP, 32 PTS
Top-25 Under 25: III. Jordan Eberle
by Jonathan Willis on Jan 31, 2011 8:30 AM EST
in Prospects
on The Copper & Blue
Jordan Eberle was a star before he played a single game in the National Hockey League.
Eberle has twice played a starring role for Canada at the IIHF U-20 World Junior Championship, and his penchant for goals in the dying seconds of games has earned him a reputation as a 'clutch' performer. Up until this season, I have argued that Oilers fans as a group had overrated the player based on those few games, and that he'd have difficulty living up to their expectations when he did make the jump to the NHL.
So far, however, it's been my expectations that have needed revising.
#10 - Theo Peckham
by Jonathan Willis on Jan 27, 2011 1:30 PM EST
in Prospects
on The Copper & Blue
Theo Peckham's strong NHL debut has finally done something that two years toiling against top opponents for a miserable Springfield Falcons team couldn't: propelled him into the top-10 of Copper & Blue's Top-25 Under-25.
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The Rejects, Revisited: A Second Look At The Under-25 Under 25
by Jonathan Willis on Jan 27, 2011 8:30 AM EST
in Prospects
on The Copper & Blue
There was a time, not that long ago, when the Edmonton Oilers’ foremost authority on prospects was Kevin Prendergast. During his time in that role, Prendergast developed a reputation for selling sunshine: there was not a player in the system that he was unable to gush about if the mood struck him, and it seemed to strike him often.
For the past while, we at Copper & Blue been putting forth our unvarnished opinions on the players in the Oilers’ system. We plan to continue doing so for the next while. We pore over numbers, scouting reports, comparables, whatever we can find to bare each prospect’s game to our readership. We can be critical. Ben Massey can take "critical" to new levels (when we ask him to).
All of this can become tiresome. So for a change of pace we looked back to Kevin Prendergast for inspiration (and McKeen's for style), and decided to revisit those players not quite good enough to crack the top-25, but this time to focus solely on the positive.
Compared to the 2009-10 Oilers, this year’s team a) scores marginally less, b) gets scored on more frequently, c) gets fewer shots, d) sees more shots against, e) has a worse power play and f) has a worse penalty kill.
A friend knew Niinimaa: upon learning he was traded to Isles, Niinimaa looked at 3rd orange jerseys & said "I'm wearing that?"
Janne Niinimaa, My Favourite Post-Dynasty Oiler
by Jonathan Willis on Sep 2, 2010 9:00 AM EDT
in History
on The Copper & Blue
Like Ben Massey and Derek Zona before me, I struggled with the choice of my favourite post-dynasty Oiler.
The current edition of the Oilers is less likeable than some previous incarnations, but it isn’t without players I genuinely like following. Ales Hemsky feels like an obligatory choice, but I seriously considered him – for a thousand reasons, but especially for the special moments. The most fantastic was the Patrick Stefan whiff on an empty net, followed by Hemsky’s goal seconds later (aided by another candidate, Marc-Andre Bergeron, who would both giveth and taketh away), but for my money nothing equaled those two goals that put away Detroit - one a beautiful passing play with Sergei Samsonov, the other a Ryan Smyth-ian goalmouth jam. Shawn Horcoff’s hustle and work ethic appealed as well, and admittedly, I’ve always had a soft spot for the long-shots who end up contributing far more than they were originally projected to. Doug Weight jumped to mind too; a sublimely talented playmaker with just the right amount of grit and attitude, I nearly wrote this article about him. For all the offence, what I remember most about Weight was the sight of 6’4" Bryan Marchment turtling after Weight took umbrage to a dirty hit, and then Weight wailing on him anyway.
When I really got thinking about it, the list got really long, actually. The imperviousness to pain demonstrated by Mike Grier, Jason Smith, Ryan Smyth, Steve Staios, and Igor Ulanov made them easy to love. It was easy to remember the best in flawed but occasionally dynamic talents like Marc-Andre Bergeron, Dean McAmmond, and Marc Pouliot because I always pulled for them. Patrick Thoresen, Ty Conklin and Kyle Brodziak were unheralded but passed flashier prospects through hard work. Rem Murray never quit, no matter what kind of odds he faced, while Georges Laraque personified giving back to the community. Quality two-way players like Marty Reasoner, Radek Dvorak, Fernando Pisani, and Mike York deserved consideration. Then again, I couldn’t forget the goaltenders; from playoff hero Curtis Joseph to the (once) quietly efficient Tommy Salo to Dwayne Roloson, the list just seemed to get longer. Roloson stood out in particular, for both talent and personality – his stop on Cheechoo in 2006 exemplified the former, while the way he shook off his helmet, or batted pucks down the ice, or simply refused to quit as Craig MacTavish sent him out again and again in 2008-09 showed the latter.
Despite a long list and some great memories, in the end I didn’t choose any of them, instead picking a heart and soul defenceman with an even mixture of talent, heart, and chaos: Finland’s Janne Henrik Niinimaa.
Introducing Jaysen Knight
by Jonathan Willis on Aug 29, 2010 2:30 PM EDT
in Miscellaneous
on The Copper & Blue
Steve Tambellini may feel he has too many forwards, but here at Copper & Blue we can never have too many talented writers. In the last 10 days we've seen the addition of two writers: Lisa McRitchie on August 20th, who has been doing splendid work as BlueBelle on HFBoards and now does regular weekend updates for Copper & Blue, and Neal Livingston on August 23rd, Copper & Blue's correspondent covering the Oilers' farm team in Oklahoma.
Last but not least, it's my great pleasure to announce a third new writer for Copper & Blue: Jaysen Knight, formerly of the fantastic Nothing 2 See Here.
Nilsson, Thoresen Playing Hockey
Fun article from the Swedish media; the two ex-Oilers are rooming together and Nilsson's looking forward to the season.
Apparently, he also enjoys the fact that the coaches only speak Russian.
Apparently Dan Tencer Isn't A Reader - Too Bad For Him
by Jonathan Willis on Aug 7, 2010 6:30 PM EDT
in Opinion
on The Copper & Blue
There have been no shortage of opinions on Nikolai Khabibulin. Khabibulin's been a controversial figure since the day he was signed - with some arguing that the Stanley Cup-winning goaltender was the solution to Edmonton's goaltending problems (a veritable "fix for a generation") and others arguing that the money and term made no sense for an aging and injury-prone player in a buyer's market.
Now there's speculation as to what the outcome of Khabibulin's DUI trial will be, and a lot of it shows a lack of understanding of Arizona's criminal justice system.
Raffi Torres vs. Gilbert Brule Since The Trade
- Games Played: 125 > 76, Torres
- Goals Per Game: 0.25 > 0.248, Brule
- Assists Per Game: 0.28 > 0.2, Brule
- QualComp: 11th = 11th (Tie)
- CorsiRel: +5.8 > +1.2, Brule
Edmonton's Top-25 Under 25 - #12 Jeff Petry
by Jonathan Willis on Jul 24, 2010 1:30 PM EDT
in Prospects
on The Copper & Blue
Jeff Petry is the highest-ranked non-NHL defenceman on Copper & Blue’s Top-25 Under 25 list. Unlike other prospects on the Oilers' blue-line, who tend to be more or less one-dimensional in their skillset, Petry boasts a wide range of skills. He also boasts draft pedigree and some impressive numbers with Michigan State University.
Edmonton’s Top-25 Under 25 - #21 Curtis Hamilton
by Jonathan Willis on Jul 15, 2010 1:30 PM EDT
in Prospects
on The Copper & Blue
The Oilers' third and final second round selection at the 2010 Draft was a relatively unheralded WHL winger named Curtis Hamilton. That’s not to say Hamilton is easy to miss on the ice – at 6’3", 202lbs, he has some presence – but thanks to some injury trouble he saw his 2009-10 season all but wiped out. That made him something of a wildcard on Draft day, but the longer I think about the pick, the happier I am that the Oilers made it.
Report: Todd Nelson Hired As The First Coach Of The Oklahoma City Barons
by Jonathan Willis on Jul 14, 2010 9:27 PM EDT
in News
on The Copper & Blue
It hasn’t been easy to coach the Oilers’ AHL affiliate the last few years. Kelly Buchberger wasn’t overwhelmed with success in the job, although he was promoted to the Oilers’ NHL staff. His replacement, Jeff Truitt, was a distinguished WHL coach, but was fired midway through his first season as head coach of the Falcons. Rob Daum filled in for Truitt, and eventually got the top job for this past season, but wasn’t able to turn things around and was let go over the summer. In fact, the last head coach to get the team to 0.500 was Geoff Ward, back when the Montreal Canadiens were still supplying players. That was in 2003.
The Oilers hope they’ve found a man who can change that pattern and bring some success to the farm club. According to the Edmonton Journal, Todd Nelson, passed over for the same job with the Edmonton Oil Kings, will be named as the first head coach of the Oklahoma City Barons tomorrow.
Edmonton’s Top-25 Under 25 - #23 Philippe Cornet
by Jonathan Willis on Jul 13, 2010 2:30 PM EDT
in Prospects
on The Copper & Blue
Philippe Cornet has slipped a bit in the rankings since July 2009, when Copper & Blue had him pegged as the 14th best prospect in the system. In February, when we last did our updated rankings, he had fallen to 20th, and now he has slipped down to 23rd on the list.
After the jump, I’ll tell you why.
Oilers Offered Boogaard $7.0 Million
"Boogaard's four-year, $6.6 million contract seems wildly excessive and will challenge coach John Tortorella's familiar assertion that paychecks don't influence lineup decisions. It is a fact, however, that Edmonton actually offered Boogaard -- who is going to Russia this summer to train with Pavel Datsyuk -- $7 million over four years."
Rutherford "Very Comfortable" That Anton Babchuk Will Be Signed
Hurricanes G.M. Jim Rutherford says he's "very comfortable" that deal will get done with Anton Babchuk sometime after July 1.
Helenius To Spend Another Year In Sweden
According to agent Jay Grossman, Riku Helenius will spend another season in the Swedish Elite League.
Canadiens Sign Defenceman Kyle Klubertanz
According to multiple reports, the Montreal Canadiens have signed defenceman Kyle Klubertanz, a 2004 draftee of the Anaheim Ducks who enjoyed a breakthrough 2009-10 season in Sweden.
Prospect Kempe Wants To Come To North America
According to a report out of Sweden, Kempe (who was drafted by the Flyers in 2007) has declined to re-sign in Sweden, hoping to come over to North America instead. He's willing to play in the AHL to imporve his chances at an NHL career.
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