SB Nation User Blog: Jonathan Willis

"Hitchcock just didn't give me a chance. You score the game winner with seven minutes of playing...

Jonathan Willis — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 03:46:48 -0000

"Hitchcock just didn't give me a chance. You score the game winner with seven minutes of playing time, and it means nothing. The next game you get four minutes of ice time. And it's normal."

Nikita Filatov, in an interview with Puck Daddy!

HI: So if they had ultimately given you an apartment, that would have been enough to keep you from...

Jonathan Willis — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 22:41:05 -0000

HI: So if they had ultimately given you an apartment, that would have been enough to keep you from fleeing to the NHL?

Fedorov: I think so, yeah. Even if they had just provided me with a car, that probably would have been enough for me to stay.

Sergei Federov talks about how close he came to staying in the USSR

"I don't care what Mike Milbury has to say. He's on TV for a reason."

Jonathan Willis — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 20:19:48 -0000

"I don't care what Mike Milbury has to say. He's on TV for a reason."

Patrick O'Sullivan, via Dan Tencer's Twitter Feed

Ales Hemsky: Boat Anchor

Jonathan Willis — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 22:06:54 -0000

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There's been a lot of talk about how the Edmonton Oilers can't win with Ales Hemsky on their team. Many internet commenters have suggested the team would be well-advised to trade him and move on, or that the Oilers are better off without him, or things of that nature.

Others have suggested that he's a flawed player with some good points but not enough to justify the esteem some hold him in.

While he's probably playing through injury right now, I'm not sure any of them appreciate how truly awful Hemsky's been this season. Let's run the numbers.

Goals: 6 through 20 games.

That puts Hemsky on pace for 25 goals, a career high for the forward. It also ties him for 70th in the NHL; a first-line pace, despite the fact that Hemsky's more playmaker than scorer.

Assists: 15 through 20 games.

Hemsky's current pace has him on track for 61 assists over an 82-game schedule, again a career-high. It also ties him for 12th in the entire NHL, along with noted plugs Henrik Zetterberg, Mikko Koivu, Vincent Lecavalier and Daniel Alfredsson, although both Koivu and Zetterberg have played more games than Hemsky.

Points: 21 through 20 games.

Those 21 points represent an 86-point campaign for Hemsky, another career-high (Hemsky's always come up just short of the point per game mark in years prior). They tie him for 26th in the NHL - and while that may not sound impressive, it marks him as a franchise-calibre offensive producer this season, given that the league has 30 teams. Oddly enough, one more point would tie him with Calgary Flames captain Jarome Iginla, Tampa Bay's breakout forward Steven Stamkos, and Sidney Crosby (Crosby's played three more games than Hemsky).

Still, we can surely acknowledge that scoring isn't all that matters, and that Hemsky gets a ton of ice-time, and there's also that theory that the power play is better without him, so let's look at some more numbers.

Plus/Minus: +6

On a team that as a whole is minus-5 at even strength, somehow Hemsky is plus-6. He's one of only two forwards on the team (Dustin Penner is the other) with a plus/minus better than plus-1.

Power Play Scoring: 3 goals, 5 assists

With eight power play points, Hemsky is second only to one other Oilers' forward (Dustin Penner, with nine). His three goals are also second to only one other Oilers' forward, again Penner, who has four. Meanwhile, those eight points tie him for 29th among NHL forwards. One more point would tie him for 14th in the league.

Even-strength PTS/60: 2.96

Last year, only seven forwards in the entire league finished with a better even-strength scoring rate than Ales Hemsky's current 2.96. Players with lower totals included Alexander Ovechkin (2.86), Pavel Datsyuk (2.91), Phil Kessel (2.82) and a host of others. Hemsky makes the most of his ice-time.

Still, maybe Pat Quinn is being sneaky and putting Hemsky in a position to succeed. Let's look at some contextual statistics, just to see if that's true.

Offensive-Zone Faceoff Perecentage: 44.5%

To put that number into perspective, consider this: 322 forwards have played more than five games and more than 10 minutes per game at even-strength. 245 of them - more than 76% - start more often in the offensive zone than Ales Hemsky. Given that Hemsky is, first and foremost an offensive talent, does it seem like he really ought to be in the bottom quarter of the league (and bottom third of the Oilers) in this category? Of course it doesn't.

Quality of Competition: 0.032 (3rd among Oilers forwards)

Naturally, opposition coaches match their best players against Hemsky. This happened last year, and it happened the year before last, and it's likely to continue.

Bottom Line

Hemsky's having a very good season. Even a career-best season. When the team's losing, and has lost for a long time, people look for someone to blame, and Hemsky's been a constant for the Oilers. Add to that the fact that he can look uninspired when he's not playing well, and he becomes an easy target. There's just one minor issue to picking out Hemsky as the problem with this team:

Ales Hemsky isn't the problem.

Steve MacIntyre on Waivers

Jonathan Willis — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 19:26:40 -0000

Steve MacIntyre: How to Fight (via ABS1B)

The Oilers have placed journeyman enforcer Steve MacIntyre, who joined the team after a prolonged career in the minors, on waivers. Also on waivers this morning: Adam Mair of the Buffalo Sabres; I wonder if he might not be a fit in Edmonton.

I didn't much like the way Horcoff looked filing into the dressing room after he got starched by...

Jonathan Willis — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 04:20:04 -0000

I didn't much like the way Horcoff looked filing into the dressing room after he got starched by Sutton.

Horcoff was definitely favouring his left arm after the game -- what I saw had shoulder separation written all over it. That's just speculation on my part right now, but it's worth keeping an eye on.

Robin Brownlee, OilersNation

PDO Numbers

Jonathan Willis — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 19:35:18 -0000

More photos » by Jimmy Jeong - AP

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There's a theory out there (which I subscribe to, with certain caveats) which states that NHL players have no noticeable impact on on-ice save percentage, and a small impact on on-ice shooting percentage.

Therefore, since these things fluctuate quite a bit between players on the same team, we can chalk much of it up to luck, bounces, and other unrepeatable stuff - and these things can make us regard players as either better or worse than they really are.

Enter PDO numbers. The PDO number is a simple measure of even-strength on-ice shooting percentage and save percentage. The league average, for obvious reasons, is 100. After the jump: those numbers for the Oilers so far this season.

Forwards

Dustin Penner: 111.8
Andrew Cogliano: 111.0
Zack Stortini: 108.5
Ethan Moreau: 108.3
Gilbert Brule: 108.1
Sam Gagner: 106.9
Ales Hemsky: 105.8
TEAM AVERAGE: 105.4
J-F Jacques: 104.7
Patrick O'Sullivan: 103.5
Robert Nilsson: 102.0
Mike Comrie: 101.5
LEAGUE AVERAGE: 100.0
Shawn Horcoff: 96.4
Ryan Stone: 94.0

Defence

Ladislav Smid: 110.6
Taylor Chorney: 109.5
Lubomir Visnovsky: 108.8
Jason Strudwick: 105.4
TEAM AVERAGE: 105.4
Steve Staios: 104.3
Tom Gilbert: 101.6
LEAGUE AVERAGE: 100.0
Denis Grebeshkov: 99.6
Sheldon Souray: 99.4
Theo Peckham: 89.5

First Line LW: Penner vs. Jacques

Jonathan Willis — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 15:46:28 -0000

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There's been some griping in certain quarters (including this one) about the use of Jean-Francois Jacques as the left wing on this team's first line from the start of the season. Last night, Pat Quinn switched out Jacques and Shawn Horcoff for Dustin Penner and Sam Gagner.

I just thought I'd contrast the level of talent the first line was working with, versus what it had last night.

Dustin Penner, last night: 1 game played, 2 goals, 3 assists, 5 points, +3
J-F Jacques, career: 69 games played, 2 goals, 3 assists, 5 points, -18

I'm beating up a little bit on Jacques, who had a much better start this season than he ever has previously, but the fact of the matter is that Dustin Penner - just like last year - is better suited to the role than anyone else on this team.

A Quick Note on Rob Schremp

Jonathan Willis — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 17:31:59 -0000

Rob Schremp, the controversial ex-Oilers’ prospect who was a healthy scratch Wednesday night as the New York Islanders won their first game of the season (4-3 in a shootout over Carolina) hasn’t been terribly impressive through five games in Long Island. This has prompted some to write him off – and I think that’s a mistake.

Don't misunderstand me here - I'm not saying it's a mistake to give up on Schremp. But for someone who has followed him during his time as an Oiler to change his mind based on a five game audition is ridiculous. One quick comparison - the projected seasons of Schremp and Shawn Horcoff right now:

Rob Schremp: 82GP - 0G - 16A - 16PTS - -32
Shawn Horcoff: 82GP - 10G - 10A - 20PTS - -31

That's what happens over small sets of data. Common sense tells us not to trust that Horcoff projection, and it should also tell us not to read too much into Schremp's first five games as an Islander.

It makes as much sense as fans who were demanding an NHL spot for him after four games last season. A brief NHL stint simply doesn't carry nearly as much weight as years of hockey in junior or the AHL does.

If Chorney continues to show he's ready to play, does it make sense to trade Gilbert? Yes, I've...

Jonathan Willis — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 01:36:54 -0000

If Chorney continues to show he's ready to play, does it make sense to trade Gilbert? Yes, I've heard the rumours about a swap with Buffalo for Drew Stafford.

Robin Brownlee, OilersNation