More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Hammerin' Mike Cameron is now a Boston Red Sock.

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Maybe most wouldn't find Cameron to be worthy of a goodbye post, but let's take a moment to recognize the value that this remarkable player brought to the Brewers over the past two years.

He accumulated WARs of 4.1 and 4.3 in his two seasons with Milwaukee. 8.4 over the past two years puts him just behind Ryan Braun (8.8) and Prince Fielder (9.5) for the team lead over that span of time. Cameron was the Brewers' third most productive player over the past two years, and now he's gone, with little fanfare.

That's a common trend for him in his career. The Red Sox will be his seventh team. As an elite center fielder with a .347 career wOBA, he's been underrated for far too long and it's good for him that he will play some of the final years of his career on a big stage in Boston.

Congratulations to Mike for securing a 2-year deal. Hopefully Red Sox fans will learn to appreciate his skillset as we did. The 1 year, $6 million deal with a $10 million option that Cameron signed in 2008 will go down as one of Doug Melvin's finest acquisitions.

The price and situation were not right for Cameron's return, based on the way Melvin decided to build the team for this year. But Cameron will go down as a big part of Brewer history as one of the most important parts of the playoff team of 2008, and a key player of the most awesome baseball game most of us have ever seen. And how awesome is the untucking tradition that he brought to Milwaukee?

It's a shame that the Brewers won't be picking up any draft picks out of the signing, but at some point complaining is futile. Good luck, Mike Cameron. You are truly one of the smoothest center fielders I have ever had the pleasure of watching.

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

Randy Wolf does his best Geoff Jenkins impression.

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Let's get this out of the way first: Randy Wolf is a good pitcher. In his career he's put up a 4.28 FIP and in the past three years he's been at 3.99, 4.17 and 3.96. He seems to have become a better pitcher in his late 20s and early 30s, which is nothing uncommon for a left-handed starter. In comparison, Jeff Suppan's career FIP is 4.85. There has really been no point in which Suppan has ever been as effective as Wolf.

Wolf has varied a lot as a pitcher throughout his career. He's averaged about 7 strikeouts to 3 walks per nine innings in his career, but that rate has jumped around-he's gone over 8 strikeouts per 9 at times and last year he was below 7 K/9, but he lowered his walk rate as well, resulting in the impressive 3.96 FIP.

You can find plenty of information about Wolf's stuff elsewhere, so I'll just touch on two things-- his fastball averages about 89 (which is just better than average for a lefty starter) and is very effective, Fangraphs pitch values show that it was 30 runs better than an average pitch last year, which is elite. His out pitch is a really slow curveball-if you thought Dave Bush's 70 mile per hour curve was slow, be prepared for Wolf to bring it around 66. That pitch was 9 runs above average last season.  

Wolf does come with some durability concerns. He was quite durable early in his career and then had 4 straight years of some injury trouble with Philadelphia. He followed that up with seasons of 190 and 214 innings. So in terms of pitchers with durability concerns, he falls somewhere in between the Rich Harden/Ben Sheets/Erik Bedard class and the Durable Innings Eaters.

The risk in giving Suppan the contract he was given was that he would not remain effective over the course of his deal, and that risk was realized: after 1 year of decent performance, he has put up 2 years of approximately replacement-level production. That should not be a problem with Wolf. If he manages to average 180-200 innings over the next 3 seasons, he should easily justify the contract. In terms of personal preference, I would much rather gamble on a good pitcher remaining healthy than gamble on a durable pitcher remaining effective.

There's no doubt that the Brewers had to go above what Wolf's probable worth on the market to get him to come to Milwaukee. The Brewers decided that he was their man and went out of their way to get him. I personally have no problem with what they did. Expecting them to set a maximum seems pretty unrealistic to me. If you set your maximum at $9 million per year and Wolf's agent indicates that it will take $10 million, do you tell them no deal? Considering that sources said Jon Garland (who, like Suppan, has never really been a good pitcher) was the backup if Wolf didn't accept, I am glad they did what they did.

After saying what I said about Wolf's ability, I think he should be projected for something like a 4.20 ERA and 180 innings this year. Expecting him to repeat last year's performance of 214 innings and a 3.50 ERA is unrealistic-first the flaws of ERA, a team statistic that is vulnerable to chance, must be considered and beyond that there's Wolf's .250 BABIP allowed and high strand rate, which show that he did not deserve the ERA that he accumulated. Fortunately, paying a pitcher $10 million really only assumes his value to be a slightly above average pitcher. Average for a starter is around a 4.5 ERA. With the Wolf projection I mentioned earlier, he's worth around $10 million in free agent dollars. There's an upside there of his production last year, which makes him worth a bit more. There is an injury risk, as there is with any pitcher.  

Giving any pitcher a 3-year deal is risky. But to win the Brewers need to be a little bit aggressive. If you project every starter on the market to account for their production and ability to stay healthy, you would probably conclude that Wolf is the second best pitcher on the free agent market right now. And he's now a Brewer. That's good news any way you look at it. There's a good chance that Wolf will not be worth $10 million in 2012, but that's a risk the Brewers are willing to take here to secure a pitching staff that they think can compete in the next two years while Prince Fielder is still under team control.

I definitely have some concerns about decisions the team has made this offseason-the other signing of today, Latroy Hawkins, included (which I'll have more on later)-but I do like this deal overall. There might have been other ways of improving the pitching staff, but I can definitely see why Doug Melvin chose to go in this direction. This pitching staff just got substantially better and the team did not have to give up a draft pick or a player to do it, and there are a few other interesting trading pieces (Corey Hart!) on the roster. I would rather the Brewers potentially risk spending $10 million on $5 million worth of production in 2012 than just throw in the towel and not make a move.

The Arizona Fall League has given us an opportunity to get an extended look at three of the most interesting pitching prospects in the Brewer system. I'm just generalizing about their stuff here and not making any specific conclusions about their velocity based on one outing. I just wanted to give everyone a general idea of what these guys are throwing when we discuss them this offseason. 

Zach Braddock

He's a lefty who has had a lot of injury trouble in his career so far but is loaded with potential. He threw 42 innings in the minor league season, working on a schedule by throwing short outings every third day. 13.7 K/ 1.5 BB per 9 in the regular season. With that kind of ratio it's not hard to see why he's an exciting prospect. 64 strikeouts, 7 walks. In the AFL he's thrown 10 2/3 innings with 7 Ks, 4 BBs, and 1 run allowed.

I'll look at his outing on November 6th, in which he got a save, throwing a clean inning with 1 strikeout. It took 10 pitches-- 9 fastballs and a slider. His fastball average was 93.7 with a maximum of 94.6. That's impressive velocity and consistency for a guy with this kind of command of the strike zone. He also showed very good consistency in his release point for the fastball, and only dipped down a little bit on the slider. The slider was 83 and had some pretty good break of 4.5 inches towards a righty hitter. As far as I know, he also throws a changeup-- but probably hasn't needed to use it working in relief. Throwing 94 with good command is plenty for him right now. 

The Brewers will face a bit of a dilemma next year as they decide what to do with Braddock. He's probably ready to pitch in the MLB right now as a reliever, but sticking him in that role will limit his upside. If Braddock could stretch out and solidify his role as a starting pitcher down the road, we could be looking at a remarkably valuable player. There are only about 5 left-handed starters in the majors that are capable of averaging 92-93+ with the fastball, and Manny Parra is one of them. I know many people are down on Parra, but remember that Parra once was an injury-plagued lefty but had good stuff and control. He didn't make it to the majors until age 25. As exciting as it would be to have Braddock in the 2010 bullpen, the Brewers should weigh the benefits against what they could have down the road if they are patient. 

Mark Rogers

We all know the story here. He's even more of an underdog than Braddock considering he didn't even throw a pitch in a minor league game in 2007 or 2008 following 75 innings back in 2006. No one really expected anything from Rogers at this point, but the velocity is still there. In 63 innings at High-A Brevard County, he put up a K/BB ratio of 8.7: 4.7. He has really struggled in the AFL, but we can still learn plenty about his stuff. 

Rogers was roughed up in 27 pitches on November 13th, but it's the best sample of his stuff available. His average fastball was 93.6, and he hit 95.4. Rogers is continuing to work on a starter's repitoire, throwing 4 changeups, 8 sliders, and a curve along with 14 fastballs. The change averaged 84.2, a very nice complement to the fastball-- the approximate 9 mile per hour gap is close to ideal. The slider is also hard, at about 84, and seems to have tight break on it. The curve he threw came in at 78-- which qualifies as a pretty hard curve.

The stuff he has shown indicates that with health and time he easily has the upside of a high-quality major league starter. It's going to be a while, but he'll probably start next year with a cautious schedule in AA and the Brewers will have to see how things go from there.

Josh Butler

He was one of the fastest risers in the Brewers system this year, starting as a pitcher too old for high A. He had an interesting progression-- I was very skeptical of his promotion to AA because his A+ peripherals did not support his low ERA. But after being promoted to AA and then AAA, he was an entirely different pitcher: he had a K:BB ratio of about 5: 4 in high A and improved that to about 7: 2 in AA and AAA.

Butler described his stuff like this on his blog:

I am a power sink pitcher that works in the 88-92 mph range with my fastball for the most part. I also throw a curve, slider and change-up.

Looking at Butler's outing on October 22nd, when he faced Stephen Strasburg, it appears he undersold his fastball velocity a bit. 34 fastballs averaged 91.1 mph and he topped out at 93.4. And there's quite a lot of break on that fastball, 11 inches towards a righty on average is good stuff. He also seems to rely heavily on the curve and changeup, throwing 15 and 13 respectively to go with 3 sliders. The changes averaged 83.6, which is a little hard, and the curves were also power versions of that pitch, coming in around 79. The slider is pretty typical, about 84 without a whole lot of break.

Butler will probably get a decent look at a bullpen spot come spring but I think the Brewers will decide to start him at AAA to develop him as a starter. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him up as a replacement at some point in 2010, especially if he can post some solid numbers there. I'll be intersted to see if he keeps up the peripheral success he started to achieve at AA and AAA last season.

More photos » by Steven Senne - AP

about 1 month ago: FILE - In this Feb. 23, 2009, file photo, Minnesota Twins' Carlos Gomez poses for a photograph. The Milwaukee Brewers traded J.J. Hardy to the Twins on Friday, Nov. 6, 2009, for outfielder Gomez. (AP Photo/Steven Senne,file)

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• I like the acquisition of Gomez, before we start putting any context on this trade. He's a ridiculously good defender, one of the best centerfielders in the game due to his tremendous speed and range. Being an elite defender gives him plenty of value before even looking at his offensive contributions. There's a tendency to group together "good centerfielders"-- but there's a big difference between the tier of guys like Tony Gwynn Jr., Juan Pierre, and Jody Gerut, and truly elite defenders like Gomez.
• Gomez, right now, is not a good offensive player. He's been basically a replacement-level hitter in his time in the big leagues so far. That does not mean he's been a replacement level player, though, because his stellar defense has made him worth between about 1 and 2 wins in his two full seasons. He has a career .286 wOBA, and the league average is around .333-- and wOBA includes stolen base contributions. His career slash line is .246/.292/.346.
  
• There's reason to believe that Gomez has a much bigger offensive upside. He was a very highly regarded prospect in his day, and a major piece in the Johan Santana deal. In A-ball as a 19 year-old, he .275/.335/.380; then he came in with a .281/.350/.423 line at AA at age 20. He was bumped to the majors by the Mets at age 21 after hitting .271/.353/.361 in AAA. He's been in the majors since then, with that completed year and two more with the Twins, and hasn't cracked a .300 OBP. Just based on his profile, it has to be possible that there's an upside of even a .320-.330 OBP and .350 SLG this year, which would go a long way towards making Gomez a much more valuable player. He'd practically be an all-star if he was a league average hitter, but that's probably too much to ask for at this point. He'll be here for four years, though, so there's still hope.  
  
• Gomez is a lot of fun to watch. I usually don't get caught up in that type of stuff, but I always found it amusing to see him take a monster hack at a pitch and almost corkscrew himself into the ground, and then bunt on the next pitch. And his energy on the basepaths and ability in center will keep us entertained.
  
• In terms of total value, this deal is pretty close to an even match. The expected value of Hardy's production over his salary in the next two years is very close to the amount of expected value of Gomez's production over his salary in the next four years. That's a strategy for a team that doesn't expect to be in contention for the next two years, however, so it doesn't quite make sense to me why the Brewers chose to do this type of deal. I'm just going to go ahead and quote Graham from Lookout Landing, who was disappointed that the Mariners didn't beat the Twins asking price for Hardy: In terms of money/talent, the deal makes a good amount of sense for both sides. The Twins get a big upgrade at shortstop, the Brewers deal from depth to cover a weak position (albeit not that well) for free, and have some more money to play with in free agency. As the return for a guy like Hardy, Gomez the talent is rather underwhelming, but the financial flexibility he provides is useful. Could/should the Brewers have gotten more for him? Yes. But they didn't, which is where this deal becomes weird from the Milwaukee side. They had an asset which had less value to them than to the rest of the league, but they sold him for his value to them rather than anyone else's, which is not the best trading strategy in the world.    
• The Brewers did everything wrong in their handling of Hardy. The last line from Graham pretty much sums up what I think-- they sold Hardy at the value to them rather than his actual value. The whole situation has been bizarre-- sending him to AAA and promoting Escobar to shake things up when there was no real reason for doing so expect gaining a year of service time that apparently increased his value to... Carlos Gomez. Yes, Hardy had a bad year. Projecting him with a weight of 3/2/1 for the last three seasons still gives a 2-3 win player with 5 win upside easily. Even at his worst, last season, he was better than Gomez was last year. And maybe the strangest part of this deal was the huge rush. It happened two days after the World Series, and Doug Melvin admitted he didn't even call a team with a shortstop shortage, the Tigers, much less the rest of the league. Not only did he sell Hardy at the absolute lowest point of his value, but he managed to pull the trigger so quickly there's no telling what might have happened had he held on longer. I doubt the Twins would have pulled their Gomez offer from the table.
  
• Melvin didn't even touch the pitching staff with his biggest trading chip, and downgraded the offense. Sure, the extra savings from Hardy to Escobar and Cameron to Gomez give the Brewers some money to throw at a free agent pitcher. But that's not the logical way to look at it. Say the Brewers had accepted the apparent Red Sox offer of Michael Bowden for Hardy. Bowden, at the mininum, makes even less than Gomez next year, and Hardy's salary is gone either way. In this situation, with even a little bit more money to play with, they could re-sign Cameron to play center for maybe 1 year, $8-10 million because they don't have to worry about another pitcher-- or they could sign a righty centerfielder like Reed Johnson to platoon with Jody Gerut, a platoon which would project about the same as the Gomez and Gerut situation going on right now, in 2010 at least. Gomez is a better bet for the following three years, but remember that Lorenzo Cain and Logan Schafer are coming and might have been able to fill in the gap by 2011. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Would we rather be looking at a rotation of Gallardo, Parra, Bowden, Bush, Suppan with Cam in center and an extra $5 mil, or that same rotation with Gerut/platoonmate in center and $15 million to throw at Erik Bedard, Ben Sheets, Rich Harden, or Justin Duchscherer? Again, it's such a strange idea to throw your most valuable trading chip at a really slight position player upgrade for 2010. It just looks like he's playing for down the road. If salary relief is one of the good parts of the trade... well, non-tendering J.J. would have gotten salary relief too. Getting Bowden would have accomplished the same thing. I don't know why we have to consider this a positive in the trade.
  
• I really like the idea of getting Gomez here. He's a nice piece to have. Not for the price of Hardy, though. And I don't understand the way Doug Melvin handled this situation overall. He could have done so much better. I'll wait to judge his offseason until we see if the available money is handled the right way. One thing I will say now-- I hope the moves will be with a consistent goal in mind. Spending the money on starters like Washburn, Piniero, and Marquis would probably not upgrade the team enough to justify the spending and commitment, which is why I suggest 1 year deals for injury-prone pitchers. And if they do decide to target a pitcher, I hope Casey McGehee is more likely to be traded than Mat Gamel. Acquiring Gomez and dealing Gamel would probably indicate a confused set of goals about when the team's window of contention is.      
  

This is outside my normal realm of analysis, but it's something I've wanted to address for a while. I'll get some Arizona Fall League Pitch F/x stuff up later in this week or early next week for sure.

I'm not too much of a pitcher, but I sometimes get that role in stickball games. I often struggle with my control. I'm inside, outside, high, and low. It really has nothing to do with my concentration or mental ability. It has a lot to do with my ability to throw a ball where I want to throw it. 

If a quarterback misses on a throw, we don't accuse him of being a head-case. If a shooting gaurd misses a three, we don't accuse him of being a head-case. So what's my point here? Control is a skill, just like pitching velocity is a skill and pitch movement is a skill. An argument can be made that the control skill is in a way dependent on a pitcher's concentration, focus, and mental clarity, but then again, almost all skill actions in sports are. 

We can acknowledge that pitchers like Manny Parra and also Yovani Gallardo have some problems with their control. It's not only measured by walks per inning but in general, better control sets up better success in getting strikeouts and groundballs-- the two best things a pitcher can do to help their success. But I don't think we need to assume that the control problems are the result of mental issues. It's not fair to the pitchers.

Concentration is an important part of athletics. The ability to concentrate is paired with a physical ability to make our world-class athletes what they are. A hitter must be able to swing a bat incredibly quickly, have fast reflexes and instincts, and be able to have the mental awareness and concentration to connect with a ball. In the same way, a pitcher needs to have the physical ability to throw a ball very hard, the ability to throw it where he wants to, and the concentration to not lapse in his mechanics and throw a poor pitch. 

Pitchers are not in a unique situation that they can somehow become better by thinking harder and clearer. Pitching control is a skill. It's possible to improve control, just as it's possible to improve velocity or a hitter's swing. It's not fair to blame a pitcher's mentality or attitude for having less than stellar control unless we know something specific. It's not a logical way of looking at the problem when you compare pitchers to other types of athletes.  

Criticism of pitch sequencing and selection is another issue entirely. Pitchers, catchers, and the coaching staff work together to come up with a plan before the game-- it's not as if a pitcher like Parra decides what to throw on the fly. If there are issues in this area, they need to begin changing with the coaching staff and catcher.

More photos » by John Bazemore - AP

6 months ago: Milwaukee Brewers' Mat Gamel drives in two runs with a double in the fourth inning of a baseball game against the Atlanta Braves in Atlanta, Friday, June 5, 2009. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

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The Brewers need some trade bait. The Brewers have two starting-caliber third basemen. With that in mind, here are three likely options. I'm leaving out options like "Trade both for Greg Acquino and start Seth McClung at third."

1) Trade Mat Gamel for/ in a package for a starting pitcher, let Casey McGehee be the 3B
2) Keep Mat Gamel and Casey McGehee
  - McGehee produces like an average-ish 3B, Gamel sits in AAA and is eventually traded
  - McGehee produces like he has in every year before 2009, goes back to the bench, Gamel starts
3) Trade Casey McGehee for/ in a package for a starting pitcher, let Mat Gamel be the 3B

The tricky thing is that we are not sure of McGehee and Gamel's value on the trade market. I would expect that Gamel would have more value. He should have more value. But some general managers are not great at evaluating players, and might look at McGehee's .367 wOBA in 394 plate appearances and decent defensive scouting reputation as a better get than Gamel, who was given inconsistent playing time despite putting up a league-average batting line and .330 wOBA in 148 plate appearances. Towards the end of the season, the Brewer management criticized Gamel's approach and ability. When starting at a defensive position, McGehee's OPS was .870, Gamel's was .864. There is a pinch hitting/ DHing penalty that lowers a player's expected level of performance when hitting in those situations.

As so I think it sets up perfectly for option number 3, which is my endorsement, though I am certainly willing to listen to arguments for another option. McGehee's value will never be higher. Gamel's value will probably never be lower. McGehee is a utility player coming off a career year, and Gamel is a stud prospect who had a decent year-- made to look worse by improper evaluation, like only looking at his strikeouts and deflating his batting stats by using him as a pinch-hitter and DH.

What should we logically project from McGehee for next year-- something like .280/.330/.450 with -5ish defense? That's a major league starter, probably close to league-average. I would project Gamel, next year, for something very similar. Maybe a slightly better hitting line and slightly worse defensive line. But they're looking pretty similar. And I would think that most would agree with me that Gamel has a higher chance to be a star next year and in the next 6 years. And on the opposite side McGehee probably has a larger chance to perform closer to his .279/.332/.409 career line in the minor leagues.

There are legitimate concerns about Gamel. Everyone's skeptical of his defense but there have been good signs so far. His strikeouts last season in the majors are a problem, but he managed to produce at about the league average despite that problem. And: 150 plate appearances.

If I had to choose one player to be the starting third basemen from this day until 2015, which is how long both players are under Brewer control, I would easily choose Gamel. And considering that McGehee probably has good value on the trade market, it's a no-brainer decision for me. 

Baseball management is all about managing assets and maximizing value. It's the simple concept of selling high and buying low. The Brewers have lowered Gamel's value and raised McGehee's-- let's see if they follow through and maximize what they did to use McGehee as a tool to improve the pitching staff.  

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

I have seriously considered buying a 73 McClung shirt jersey at Miller Park.

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Since you were acquired from the Rays for Grant Balfour you've been a favorite of Brew Crew Ball and the Brewer fanbase in general. The first pitch you threw in Arizona hit 100 miles per hour on the FSN gun-- I remember it quite vividly. Through the Ned Yost playoff push of 2007, you were reliable from the pen. Jim Powell would always talk about the Brewers simplifying your mechanics to improve your control. 

In 2008 you were the surprise of the staff. Many people did not think you would make the opening day roster, but some of us knew you would have to be a contributor to the staff at some point. You went on to have a remarkable season, performing out of the bullpen and filling in admirably in the starting rotation when few thought you would succeed. Your strikeout rate rose and walk rate dropped, good indicators for sustained improvement. You capped it off with an incredible performance in relief of Jeff Suppan in the final week of the season against the Cubs-- after coming in in the sixth, you finished off the game, allowing only 1 hit and 1 walk and striking out 6 Cubs. In a week that featured 2 Ryan Braun gamewinning homers, 3 Sabathia starts, and a Prince Fielder walkoff homer, and Gallardo's comeback effort, your performance was not overshadowed. It was absolutely amazing. I will also never forget the image of you jumping off of the bullpen wall after Braun's 8th-inning homer of the final game of the regular season. Such a joyous reaction that many of us watching at home could relate to entirely.

And now we're up to the present. It's been an interesting year of course, I don't think we need to do any specific recaps because it is happening right now. But the reason I write is because of your twitter. I don't think I have ever read a more enthusiastic twitter feed. It's a lot of fun to read. It really is so neat to learn the insights from the players themselves, and I say that without sarcasm. A lot of athletes have tried twitter and posted a few generic updates about how the team is doing, but honestly Seth, your feed so far is the most entertaining one I have come across. I just bookmarked it, and I don't even have Haudricourt's bookmarked. Just Adam McCalvy's.     

Seth, your dedication to keeping the fans informed is absolutely admirable and I wish more athletes out there were like you. Everything we've heard about you is that you're a great guy and teammate. So with that being said, I'd like to formally apologize for the cheap joke I made about your conventions; first of all I had no knowledge of any factors involved and I really hate to be a grammar stickler anyway. It's simply out of habit based on my college-level English courses. I sincerely didn't mean it. And the way I constructed the joke was pretty stupid anyway, your control has been pretty solid over the past two years. 

So to wrap this up, I am sincerely sorry about that and I hope you will not hold it against me. I think it is amazing that today analysts/bloggers can freely interact with the athletes whose performances they analyze. I think it's good for all of us to know that athletes are people just like anybody else-- they do normal activities, and sometimes they make spelling mistakes. I only hope to encourage you and any other professional athlete to continue on the trend towards more transparency and exposure. 

Meanwhile, we will keep writing about our favorite team. I have spent hours analyzing the minor league BABIP of Alcides Escobar and Mat Gamel's platoon splits and, Seth, your pitch f/x data. I will probably spend many more hours analyzing Brewer information in the future. It's all in fun and it all serves to increase our understanding and appreciation of the game. That's what really matters here.

So thank you, Seth, and good luck to you in your role as a Milwaukee Brewer. Keep up the good work.

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

The new shortstop of the Nashville Sounds.

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The Brewers optioned J.J. Hardy to Nashville. We don't really know all of the details about this yet, so maybe it's a two-week Rickie Weeks type situation to try to get him on track, but it's pretty rash and definitely an overreaction.

Everything I said back here about Hardy still applies. He's having a down year but not nearly as down as his baseball card numbers suggest, because he has gotten terribly unlucky on balls in play. The league on average drops about 30% of balls in play for a hit, and Hardy was only getting about 25% to fall. Part of the blame goes to him for not hitting the ball as hard as he has in the past, but that's just unsustainable for a hitter. Had they kept him in the majors I would have fully expected him to hit something like his .261/.325/.438 ZiPS rest-of-season projection.

Let's not lose sight of the fact that Hardy is a really valuable player even when he's hitting terribly. He's been worth about 8 runs above an average shortstop this year and his ability to play short gives his value another boost. He's been roughly average this year overall, and that's about 2 wins above a replacement player over the course of the year-- something teams are willing to pay $8 million dollars for. Hardy is not a bad player. In 2007 and 2008 he was easily an all-star caliber player worth between 4 and 5 wins to the Brewers, and even in a down year like this he's far from worthless.

I have no problem with "shaking things up", but I'm a bit concerned about how this will affect Hardy's trade value. I'd like to think teams are able to evaluate a player like Hardy without reading too much into his poor offensive numbers this year, but if sending him to AAA significantly lowers the return the Brewers get for Hardy, then it's a bad decision.

Finally, as much as I like Escobar, there's one problem-- he probably won't be an upgrade over Hardy for the rest of this season. Escobar has a lot more value to the Brewers than Hardy does because of his upside and cost, but for the rest of this year their production is a wash at best and probably favors Hardy. Escobar's MLE is just about the same as Hardy's line in the majors this season, and though I'd bet Escobar would outperform that, I think Hardy would easily beat his line to date as well. Escobar is considered an excellent defender but Hardy is probably in the top 5 in the majors at short and easily is in the top 10. 

Doug Melvin felt the need to shake things up and that's fine, but I'm not so sure this is an upgrade for the rest of the year and now they're burning Escobar's service time while using up the limited time they control Hardy while sticking him in the minors. Not a shrewd use of valuable assets. I'm not fully against sending him down, but I don't really think it's a great idea, either.