(With apologies to Ben and Dave.)

T'was the night before the season,
And all through the league,
Not a player was stirring,
Not even Jeff Teague.

New shoes were laced
In the cold locker air,
In hopes a new trophy
Soon would be there.

Lebron was nestled
In black, white and red;
Visions of rings dancing
In his head.

And Durant in the corn fields,
And Pierce popping caps,
Were listening for the
Fans' obnoxious claps.

When out there in the west
There arose such a clatter
Lebron sprung from his interview
To see what was the matter.

Away to his agent he
Flew like a flash,
While Pat Riley said
"Let's not be rash."

The gleam of lights
Shining down on the show
Gave the old Lakers
A Championship glow.

When what to Lebron's
Wondering eyes should appear
But Bynum, Kobe and Artest,
Fresh rings on their finger.

With a crossover and pull-up,
So lively and quick,
Lebron knew they were waiting,
And his shots turned to bricks.

Stern called up his lawyer
And created new rules.
"If Lebron can't win with this
I'm done with that fool."

But Kobe and the Lakers
Put on their shorts.
They laced up their shoes
And walked onto the court.

"Hey, don't be crowning
the king just yet.
I'm about to Magna Carta
this fool with my step."

And so the ball flew,
And the points were made.
Fans watched and they booed,
Drinking $12 lemonade.

But still there was more,
On the East and the West.
Roy filled up the board,
Melo gave it his best.

Durant threw up points
Like he had a collection.
Amar'e threw down the rock,
The rim showing flexion.

Rose crossed left then right,
No... back to his left.
Chris Paul threw up balls
For someone to get.

And all through the league,
The fans were churning.
The tickets were selling...
Lebron jerseys burning.

Everyone could feel it,
Hanging in the air.
The new season's coming...
I hope you're prepared.

And before I woke up,
Kobe turned off the lights,
And said with a smirk,
"Happy season's eve night."

I haven't really follow Amare closely throughout his career, and mostly have seen him where he plays against us or in the playoffs.

That's why his behavior with Nicolas Batum has surprised me. I've never seen him as a dirty player, just a player with a lot of fire, which is usually a good thing. With Batum though he's very clearly been getting in extra-curricular hits on Batum's bad shoulder, the last of which resulted in Batum getting his first technical.

I'm not asking if Amare is a dirty player, rather I'm asking if he's always done stuff like this to under other people's skin. It's a bit of a dick thing to do to a guy that lost half the season to that shoulder, but it gets under his skin and gives Amare a mental advantage. Has he always done stuff like that?

 I've spent time thinking over this series, what with Roy out and Dave & Ben's excellent coverage. And I've come to a conclusion that I'm sure Nate and his staff have come to: every possession of this series should start with Nash. On defense and offense.

 Defensive Possessions:

 Defense presents and interesting problem: Phoenix thrives if you try switching on them. The ideal solution to this is to eliminate switches, and the ideal way to do that is to get the ball out of Nash's hands. Easier said than done, right?

The best way to do this is to start hard trapping Nash in the back court (but not with Aldridge... Miller and Batum would do) from the very first possession. Make them work to get it back.

Once it's out of his hands, Miller should be fronting Nash whenever possible to deny the pass back.

Phoenix is still a very capable team without Nash, or if you limit Nash. But the best way to take a team out of their game is to take them out of their rhythm, and forcing the possession to start somewhere besides Nash is a good way to do that.

Offensive Possessions:

On offensive possessions, you want to tire Nash out or punish him for saving energy. This means that you attack Nash head on every chance you get. Option 1A should be to get the back to Nash's cover and attack.

Portland can work that angle several ways, since Nash almost chronically switches on screens, letting us get almost any matchup we want until they adjust. Once they adjust, Miller, Bayless, Fernandez and Batum should be able to force the defense to overcommit to make up for Nash's mistakes, freeing up Camby and Aldridge to pick apart the rest of the defense.

Every single possession for Portland should start with Nash, because no team is going to win a seven game series riding Amare's back alone.

Pritchard was a terrible coach, which in my mind, is one of the reasons that he refuses to question any coaching decisions. But we have come to a simple realization that Nate seems to have overlooked: Blake cannot play as many minutes as he has if we're going to win.

Blake isn't bad, and we won 54 games with him last year, but Miller needs to be able to take the reins if we're going to get past this funk. Players don't know how to deal with it right now.

Nate seems to be afraid to admit that, and so I believe we're fast approaching a point where Pritchard will have to make the tough choices that Nate is pretending isn't there: he's going to have to trade either Blake or Miller.

Unfortunately, it seems Nate is incapable of making this decision then sticking by it. Pritchard can't let half the season go by before McMillian get the cajones to do it, so It's my belief right now that KP will have to make that decision for him

When it happens, remember this: if KP is forced to make this happen, and he makes a bad trade, it was Nate who forced him into it by refusing to do his job as coach.

I think Nate is a great coach, and I certainly don't want to get rid of him. But this one thing is simply too difficult for Nate to wrap his mind around it seems.

This is not a post about how our trades/draft picks/free agents have failed or aren't fitting in. Rather, this is a look at a reality that is putting McMillian in a very hard place: he has several guys, (Bayless, Fernandez, Webster, Batum when he returns), who deserve minutes that McMillian simply can't deliver. Some of these players must be cashed in to allow McMillian to settle on a solid 7-8 man rotation, with spot minutes for everyone else.

I'm not necessarily going to propose how to do that, but right now, we are a team in transition. Who is going to be here next season? Two seasons from now? It's difficult to say.

But this goes deeper than simply keeping players happy, such as Fernandez who knows he would be starting for most teams in the league. Rather, this is about McMillian having to make choices that will inevitably frustrate and stunt the production of some very talented players on our roster.

The issue with "too much talent" is that talent is very hard to turn into production in limited minutes. Channing is a great example of that, (but there was no real place for him on this team anyway). Bayless and Fernandez both have talent to be solid production guys, but without minutes, and consistency, it's difficult for them to turn it into something they can cash in every night.

I feel like McMillian has received a lot of criticism for something that really isn't his fault. As has been mentioned, you'd rather have "too much" talent than too little. But it is a problem none-the-less. And it's a problem that can't be fixed with coaching.

This season we'll discover just how good of a GM Pritchard really is. Will he be able to make the tough choices and do what has to be done, or will he be frozen by indecision? I have a lot of faith in Pritchard and McMillian. I think they're the perfect guys for our team and I hope both are around for a long time.

But something need to be done to clean up this roster. We've got too much talent and too few minutes, and that particular combination will always lead to inconsistency, which happens to be one of McMillian's least favorite traits.

I don't know who should be traded, and certainly can't even really guess at who *will* be traded, but mark my words, Pritchard will trim this roster up by the deadline or every analyst in the league, and every fan on this site, will be writing essays on his mistakes.

Plenty of talk happens over what players Portland should attempt to acquire, or what players people would like to see gone.

But there are certain realities to a basketball team that make certain trades difficult, or others very easy, that might not otherwise be considered. A move that may seem lateral ends up being a huge steal, or a team gets rid of someone simply to not lose out on their value.

Right now, as Dave has mentioned before, I see no scenario where Portland has Outlaw after the trade deadline. Travis will want more than the MLE, and someone will it to him. He's a 6'10" player with crazy athleticism who's been in the NBA 6 years but is still only 24, knows how to score and can play multiple positions. Obviously his defense is suspect, but someone out there will be willing to open their checkbook to give him minutes.

The problem with that is quite simply that Portland will not, under almost any rotation, be looking to get huge production out of a combo forward, especially of the Travis mold. If we win a ring, it's because Oden and LMA come to play with Roy, and while having a good bench is important, both Rudy and Travis will want touches, minutes and money off the bench, and a team can realistically only keep one.

I am quite certain that KP will look at the situation and decide to cash in on Outlaw while he can and choose to bank on paying Fernandez, with the option to bring Claver and Freeland over later. KP will simply never be able to get any more for Outlaw than he could now.

In addition to being a type of player many teams seek, Outlaw is an expiring contract, meaning if you don't like how he fits, you have no financial obligation to keep him. Mark my words, KP will be fielding bids from several teams who will be chasing after Outlaw at the deadline, and he'll have to luxury of choosing which he likes best.

The downside (or maybe an additional upside depending on your perspective) is that to get the kind of piece KP is interested in getting, Blake will likely leave with Outlaw. Blake and Outlaw together represent a $9.6 million contract that you can trade to the Blazers and not have to pay after June. To put that in perspective, that's about one sixth of the salary cap.

Any team that's interested in trading a championship piece for Outlaw is looking for:

1. Youth
2. Flexibility
3. Cap Savings

This tells me that Blake is nearly the ideal piece to pair with Outlaw in a trade. A team receiving Outlaw and Blake could save nearly $10 million in salaries by cutting both, could sign Outlaw and save $4 million with Blake, or could sign both. Throw in a draft pick if necessary, and in this one trade any team could add some significant talent, consistency and youth to their team, all while saving money.

So who would be interested in such a deal? I'm not nearly as sure about where they'll go as that they'll go. Houston comes to mind as a team that needs offense, youth and flexibility.

But I don't expect to be seeing Outlaw or Blake in Blazer uniforms after the trade deadline. I wouldn't put it past KP to try and sign Blake for a third time after he inevitably gets cut at the end of the season, but for the rest of the year I don't expect to see him.

So, what say you? Who do you think will be gone before the season ends?

• Player A is 28, Player B is 34.
• Player A is locked into $4 million next year, Player B wants a multi-year $10 million per deal.
• Player A scored 11 ppg with 5 asts in the slowest pace and most efficient offense in the league, Player B scored 16 ppg with 6.5 asts in the 21st rated pace and 19th most efficient offense.
• Player A shoots 39.2% from three on his career with 42.7% from three last season, Player B shoots 21.0% from three on his career with 28.3% from three last season.
• Player A was TS%: 55.7%, eFG%: 53.6%, TOV%: 13.6%, Player B was TS%: 54.8%, eFG%: 48.0%, TOV%: 14.0%
• Player A and Player B both have an individual defensive rating of 110.

Who you got?

It's not an absolute necessity, but it's likely that we'll have to deal either Rudy or Batum if we sign Hedo. Just not enough minutes.

So what PG can we get with Blake + Outlaw + Webster + Rudy/Batum? I think that's enough to talk about Harris or Rondo...

Personally I think that Harris would be a good way to go after a signing like Hedo, and I think New Jersey would be interested in a package of Blake + Outlaw + Webster + Rudy/Batum...

Would we be asking for anything else back, or do you think that package isn't going to be worth an All-Star quality PG?

This is not a post about how Outlaw isn't a good enough player, or similar garbage. Very simply, I would like to explain to people here why Portland really has no option other than to trade Outlaw before the draft next year.

Continue reading this post »

Link

 “They also have had positive feedback from Marion about the possibility of him returning to play small forward. 

With a tight job market the Raptors are hopeful an offer in the range of three years for $21-million might be enough to keep him in Toronto. 

“The indication is he wants to be here,” Colangelo said. “And the message we’ve given him is we’d like him back, he fits this roster and we’ll try to make it happen.”

 I bet we could force them into a S&T that's cap neutral and slightly more than the MLE as I proposed in my comprehensive Blazer offseason

Since I went into some depth in my linked post, I'll recap it. Basically I cited the fact that I thought many Portland fans would have an irrational distaste for Marion, but that at ~$7-8 million for three years he was nearly an ideal choice for the team.

Some questioned his willingness to play third fiddle to Roy/Aldridge, but being positive about staying in Toronto clearly shows that he's not as self-centered in that respect as many here thought. He could get the MLE anywhere.

Some thought he couldn't be had that sheap, though clearly it looks like he's going to be had almost 30% cheaper.

And some thought he has character issues. Honestly, the only character issues I've seen are that he isn't very forgiving. He takes things personally and holds grudges. You know who else is like that? Lamarcus Aldridge. I don't see how anyone can say they wouldn't want him for under half what he got payed last season at a position of need simply because he has a trait that Aldridge has in spades.

Alright, here we go:

Pre-June 30th

Step 1: The good old standby, with a minor tweek. We trade Blake and Sergio to Chicago for Hinrich. This saves Chicago a lot of money, and they get to fill their backup PG spot at the same time with a more reasonable contract. Now, I'd expect Chicago to waive Blake after this trade and keep Sergio, since Blake is payed $4 million and Sergio is payed ~$1 million.

EDIT:

I moved Travis Outlaw to this trade to give Chicago the same flexibility. This is slightly overpaying for Hinrich now, but it's under the assumption that Chicago plans to not guarantee Blake.

Roster Change:
- Steve Blake
- Sergio Rodrigez
- Travis Outlaw
- Cap Space
+ Kirk Hinrich

Post-July 1st

Step 2: Waive rights to Frye, LaFrenz, Ruffin, Shavalik. This clears our maximum realistic cap of about $9.2 million.

Roster Change:
- Channing Frye
- Shavalik Randolph
- Michael Ruffin
- Raef LaFrenz
+ Cap Space

Step 3: We use the #24 pick to draft a backup PF, something like Hansborough, Mullins, etc.

Roster Change:
+ Rookie PF

Step 4: We do a S&T with Toronto. Webster, Cap Space and a 2009 2nd for Marion. (I expect people from both parties won't like this trade, but I think it's a definite improvement, and helps both teams.) Marion's contract would be something like 3-4 years, $25 million (~$8.3 million per). The thing I like about this for Toronto is that it gives them flexibility, rounds out some corners, and gives them value. Webster is both a shooter and defender... both things Toronto lacks. We also give Toronto about $4 million in cap space.

Roster Change:
- Martell Webster
- 2009 2nd Rounder
- Cap Space
+ Shawn Marion

Step 5: Sign both Roy and Aldridge to extensions. Roy at the max (unless for some reason he wants to take less to give the team flexibility... which incidentally isn't something I'd hope for, he deserves to get paid), and Aldridge at about $10 million per. This effectively kills capspace in 2010, but really, who was Portland going to get instead of Roy or Aldridge in 2010 anyway?

Roster Change:
- 2010 Cap Space
+ 2010 Brandon Roy
+ 2010 Lamarcus Aldridge

Step 6: Use our remaining cap to re-sign the recently waived Steve Blake to a 3 year $4 million per contract, with the fourth year unguaranteed (like currently). This would mean that at age 32, we'd basically have a team option on Blake. I expect a lot of criticism for this move, especially since it depends on Chicago waiving him after the trade (although that seems like a no-brainer to me with the trade I proposed), but I think this is a great move with the remaining cap space that is guaranteed to not make us worse, and is likely to make us much better. After this trade, we no longer have appreciable cap space.

Roster Change:
- Cap Space
+ Steve Blake

Step 7: We bring Ime Udoka back for the vet min (which you can do regardless of your cap). Ime was a fan favorite while he was here, is at worst an average defender, has plenty of experience, and would help round out the 3 spot really well.

Roster Change:
- Cap Space
+ Ime Udoka

Step 8: We bring over Joel Freeland to play in the US and fill some minutes at PF if needed. Most likely he'd spend next season in the D-League, but he has been solid in Europe this last year, showing marked improvement, and this could be our last year to bring him over. Serviceable big men will always be valued in the league.

Final Position for 2009 - 2010 season: After this series of moves, none of which I feel are far fetched, Portland would be in prime position to push for the ring next year, and every year after for quite some time. It also positions Portland with a very high quality team at a very cheap price. 

The two trades, Hinrich and Marion, have been talked about, although I don't think I've seen the scenarios I outlined tried. Regardless, I like the look of this roster:

PG: Hinrich/Blake/Bayless
SG: Roy/Rudy/Udoka
SF: Marion/Batum/Udoka
PF: Aldridge/Marion/Rookie PF/Freeland
C: Oden/Przybilla/Aldridge/Freeland

All for about $59 million in 2009 and about $69 million in 2010.

Well, fire away.

EDIT: 

Corrected for contract realities and CBA quirks.

Alright. First, I had an agreement with a Rocket fan to watch the contact Yao endures in the post and report back with my own feelings on the matter.

True to my word, on many possessions, both on offense and defense, I watched Yao, and those guarding him closely. I noticed a few things:

-Yao endures a LOT of contact, just as Rockets fans say.

-Oden does indeed create more contact on Yao than Przybilla.

-Yao tries to hook his defenders arms to get fouls called. I imagine this is a move he developed because refs early in his career weren't calling fouls for him, however, it's technically not a defensive foul. That's part of the finnesse of the game.

-A lot of Przybilla's excessive contact and bumping seems to come from the fact that once Yao establishes a position, he throws his hips and arms EVERYWHERE. 

I don't think Przybilla is used to that kind of contact. Yao is obviously trying to muscle his way into better position, while Przybilla is trying to move around Yao and be mobile. The result, from my point of view, is that Yao basically pushes his body into the defender, but the defender continues their motion around Yao, which has to create a lot of stress for Yao.

-Yao is an absolute expert at throwing his hips into ANYONE within a foot of him. I did not see a SINGLE drive to the hoop into Yao that didn't result in Yao creating a textbook blocking foul. You obviously can't call that every single time, even in a tight game, and Joel gets away with some of that too, but I don't know if Yao knows how NOT to throw his hips at the defender.

While it wasn't part of the deal, I also was watching a lot fo the other contact too. I didn't see a single foul on Scola that he didn't deserve, but Landry got the short end of the stick with touch fouls.

In addition, Brooks is a young guy. He got frustrated, and made some stupid plays/fouls when he got frustrated. 

Now, for the Blazers...

Did I call it, or did I call it? Playing Rudy heavy minutes was the key to this game. Rudy is the only role player on Portland who has shown he can shrug off the Rocket defense. 

Tonight, though he didn't start like I advocated, Rudy was on the floor to begin quarters 2, 3 and 4. He played with energy, and mixed it up with passes, driving, shooting, and most of all, energy.

This freed up Roy to play loose, and keep attacking despite a slow start. Additionally, Lamarcus was looking for his shot instead of hesitating, which is huge. In an elimination game, there is no hesitation. You put it in, or you go home. I don't know if it was McMillian or Roy that said something to him, but Lamarcus clearly understood that he needed to leave everything on the court.

This is the sort of win that you can duplicate, and I can only hope Portland can duplicate it Thursday.

Let me just say, I had a deal with a Rockets fans where I supposed to watch Yao and he was supposed to watch our front court, and we would confer at the end. Yao does get quite a bit of the contact that Rockets fans complain about, but from my obvservation, it's mostly because Yao doesn't have very good body control.

Tonight the refs were watching both sides of the court. That was $25,000 well spent.

Mutombo says career is over

Rockets center went down in first quarter with bad injury

Dikembe Mutombo was jockeying for position with Greg Oden on a rebound late in the first quarter Tuesday night, and in an instant everything changed.
Mutombo, who has been a defensive spark for the Rockets for 5 seasons, fell to the floor. He grabbed his knee and rolled around in obvious pain.

The Rockets said it was a knee strain, but you knew it was more than that. An emotional Mutombo confirmed it after the game when asked if his season was over.

"No," said Mutombo. "It's over for me for my career.

"I might need surgery," said Mutombo. "I'm going to be around for as far as we can go in the championship run. I'll be with my teammates in support and give them the same love that they give to me, but for me, basketball... it's over."

More coming...

Really, how great is it that we get the privilege of picking apart the thigns we did wrong in the playoffs against a team that we can actually beat if we put it together?

That's a huge luxury in this league, and while nearly everything on the hardwood not named Roy was painful to watch tonight, I couldn't help but smile a little bit as I thought about how much better it felt to watch my team get blown out by 30 in the playoffs than to say goodbye after our last game against Denver.

That performance was unacceptable, and truly I hope Roy just lays into the rest of his team. That just won't cut it, and I got the feeling that Roy was frustrated with everyone else's effort.

But isn't it great to finally have our team back in a place where questions like that matter? I know it is for me, and I really can't wait to watch to rest of the series.