SB Nation User Blog: Josh from Hollywood

Japanese Rowand even gamier!

Josh from Hollywood — Thu, 28 May 2009 18:38:59 -0000

Japanese Rowand even gamier!

AFTER FURTHER REVIEW: The 1st Round Live Blog (Tape Delayed)

Josh from Hollywood — Sun, 26 Apr 2009 01:04:46 -0000

More photos » by Jason DeCrow - AP

FOOCH'S NOTE: Josh put this together and offered it up and I thought we could hold off with more in-depth analysis until tomorrow. Let's end the night with a little levity.

For those who don't know (a.k.a. "n00bs"), I posted a columns a couple of times a week during last season (you can check those out here). Due to time constraints, I've gone postless since the Super Bowl, but I'm back with a vengeance for the greatest offseason event in sports -- Draft Day.

I’ve watched the NFL Draft for over 20 years now. And I’ve never experienced it in any other way than on ESPN. I can still vividly remember being super pissed when the Jets took Roger Vick, a RB out of Texas A&M, with the 21st pick in 1987, because Mel Kiper made it clear the Niners wanted to take him at #22. Boy, that really came back to bite the Niners, huh?

When the NFL Network began airing the draft, I always meant to give their coverage a try. But I’m a creature of habit, so I never managed more than a cursory click-over during a commercial or particularly annoying part of ESPN coverage. The coverage was decent enough, with Mooch, and Deion, and Marshall Faulk. It also had Rich Eisen leading the charge, a huge improvement over Berman. The Net’s version of Mel Kiper is Mike Mayock. He actually played in the NFL, so he’s got that going for him. And he’s every bit as abrasively East Coast as Mel -- his Phillyese is quite similar to Mel’s Baltimorese.

Because I’m so into my comfortable routines, I’ve never actually gave them a shot, going with them right from the get-go. But after 20+ years of Chris Berman’s bad jokes, Mel Kiper’s hair, and the ever expanding Scott Stuartization of their coverage, I’ve finally had enough. I need to go one year without it. So today’s the day -- except for that rare click-over during commercials, I plan to stay ESPN-free today. I'm flying with The NFL Network -- The Net, for short -- all day today. Won’t you join me on this journey of discovery?

8:59am -- I’m all ready for this draft. All settled in on the couch, got my notebook, food, drink, computer, TV’s on. I’M READY ROCK N’ ROLL!!!

9:01 -- Wait, the draft’s not on. Checking my programming guide, I see it doesn’t start until 1pm. Totally forgot about that. So I got up at 8:30am for no absolutely no reason. Oh well, more time to ~~download porn~~ do research.

11:47 -- After a long nap, I’m back and ready to roll again. Turn on the NFL network pre-~~game~~ draft just in time to see Rich Eisen toss it to Santa Clara, where Brian "Creepy Pinky" Baldinger is at Niner HQ. He breaks big news on the Niners plan of action for the draft: "That’s what this draft is all about -- improving the roster, improving their chances of winning next season." Mind blown. Excuse me while I pick my jaw up off the floor.

11:49 -- After that truly enlightening report from Baldinger*, the feed switches back to the ballroom, where a camera mounted up high gazes down at reporter’s doing stories on the main floor. This shot includes a sweet look at Erin Andrew’s ass. Excuse me while I pick my jaw up off the floor again (this time for real). We’re going to see a lot of talent on display here today, but surely none will be as awe-inspiring as that. * No actual enlightening included

11:50 -- More shots from the ballroom floor, including one of Michael Crabtree. Rich Eisen and Marshall Faulk take this opportunity to praise him for his lavender shirt. There’s a joke in there somewhere, but I’m too lazy to look for it.

11:53 -- Back from commercial, we’re presented with a 3-man satellite desk where Brian Billick, Charles Davis, and Brian Billick discuss the Jets. Dukes’ microphone appears to be turned off -- nice work by the crew there, and I’m not being sarcastic.

11:57 -- Dukes’ mic is now working -- the Lord giveth, and He taketh away.

12:00pm -- High noon. Now I can start drinking alcohol without feeling guilty. Don’t get me wrong -- I’ve been drinking since dawn, it’s just that until now I’ve been feeling guilty about it.

12:01 -- Nice ponytail, Cushing. Now that was sarcasm.

12:01 -- Two good bits of info from the main desk: 1) Mike Mayock calls this the worst draft in recent memory. 2) Steve Mariucci has been nominated for an Emmy. I’m not sure which is more disappointing.

12:02 -- What the hell is that?! It looks like Bill Belichick, now there appears to be something on his face I’ve never seen there before. I know this sounds crazy, but it has all the earmarks of... a smile.

12:06 -- Belichick drops the nice guy act when Eisen asks about the Matt Cassel, giving a typically lifeless answer. This is a good thing, because Smiling Belichick was giving me cold chills down my spine.

12:25 -- The NFL network airs a retrospective on the QB class of 1983. They call Todd Blackledge "the biggest bust in Kansas City Chief history", then proceed to show him a) taking a shotgun snap to the face, and b) the worst mullet in NFL history. Somewhere, Blackledge sits in the dark listening to The Smith’s and cutting himself.

12:35 -- The Niners unveil their new jerseys. A nation says, "Meh". I like them, myself. Reminiscent of the 80’s version, which is all I ever wanted.

12:45 -- Deion introduces the top prospects in the draft. Jets fans boo him. Jets fans are in full-throat, as usual. This is really their day, more than any other. When I think "NFL Draft", I think "Jets fans booing".

12:46 -- Watching the top prospects all take the stage, I can’t help but wonder which of them will look back on this day as the highlight of not just their career, but their life. It sounds a little morbid when put like that, but it’s really morbid when you realize none of us will ever achieve such greatness. I’m making another drink.

12:59 -- John Gruden: "I’m fired up!" Gruden, fired up? I’m shocked, shocked.

1:01 -- The Net opens their coverage with a terrible, repetitive, annoying song. ESPN opens theirs with Chris Berman. This is like ‘Sophie’s Choice’, only in reverse.

1:03 -- The Commish steps to the podium to announce the first pick. I’m going on record to say I think it will be Matthew Stafford.

1:04 -- Oh my, I was right! Matthew Stafford is the #1 pick in the Draft, and the New York crowd shows it’s class by booing him and then chanting "Overrated".

1:10 -- The lambs are on the clock. Mayock says Spanolouloloulououo wants to improve the ground game, as shown by his off-season moves -- including personal favorite Mike Karney.

1:12 -- Copious shots of Mark Sanchez on his cell at his home in Orange County before the Rams pick at #2. Sanchez is doing the right thing -- chill at home, and celebrate with your friends and family instead of doing it before hundreds of strangers in person and the prying eye of the national TV camera.

1:14 -- As their time expires, the Lambs pick is in. Mayock says a team might purposely pass up their pick, insinuating the Rams might do it. Eisen corrects him that there is a pick -- Jason Smith.

1:19 -- ESPN comes back from commercial for 8 seconds before Berman says anything. I turn back to The Net.

1:22 -- The Chiefs are on the clock, and Gruden says they will go offense here, as Haley wants to give Cassel another weapon. Crabtree? Really? The Chiefs had a terrible pass rush last year and also got pushed around. And they already have Bowe.

1:23 -- The Chiefs pick is in. Eisen explains that the pick was be checked for spelling and pronunciation before it is "processed" and handed to the Commish. It’s Tyson Jackson. Note to self: Don’t listen to Jon Gruden.

1:32 -- The hosts talk about the widespread rumor that Seattle is picking Mark Sanchez, but the Seahawks select Aaron Curry. And this is why you watch from home like Sanchez is doing. If he was at Radio City, the cameras would be so far up in his grill we’d know if he trimmed his nose hairs recently or not.

1:36 -- Rich Eisen sees people on the phone and starts a rumor there might be a trade. Mayock says it could be someone moving up to snag Sanchez, or it could involve Braylon Edwards to the Eagles (but wouldn’t that involve the Browns getting another pick, not losing this one?).

1:38 -- Eisen was right -- there is a trade, and it’s the Jets! Jets fans are beside themselves, and I am too. Everybody said they liked Freeman, but could this be for Sanchez?

1:39 -- It is! It’s Mark Sanchez! The Net has him on TV at his home putting on a Jets cap before he’s even picked. Maybe he should’ve come to New York after all.

1:41 -- Most Jets fans are thrilled and cheering, but the camera is staying trained on two guys who hate the move. They’re scowling, and one clearly says, "This horrible! I’m so pissed!" I love Jets fans.

1:50 -- The Bengals take Andre Smith, and his ample breasts.

1:54 -- The Raiders are on the clock and everybody is thinking a speedy WR. Why? Because they are the Raiders. Is it Crabtree?

1:56 -- Oakland does pick a WR, but not the ones most people were talking about -- Darrius Hayward-Bey. Mayock: "A classic Al Davis pick". Meanwhile, Crabtree's still on the board. I wonder if he wishes he was watching at home.

1:59 -- The Jags are on the clock. Gruden is saying it might be Crabtree.

2:05 -- It’s Eugene Monroe. Second reminder to self: don't listen to Gruden. That makes 3 OT’s in the first 8 picks. Mayock: "He can bend!" Okaaaay.

2:06 -- Crabtree continues to slip. If he slips past Green Bay (which he should -- no way they need another WR), he'll be there for the Niners. That both excites and terrifies me. He could be a poor man’s Jerry Rice, or he could be a rich man’s Rashaun Woods.

2:08 -- And there’s Raji on the phone -- the telltale sign of an upcoming pick (or a Drew Rosenhaus production). This is happening, it’s really happening.

2:10 -- I feel like Jessie in that very special ‘Saved By the Bell’: I’m so excited... I’m so scared! I don’t know whether to root for Crabtree, or against him.

2:13 -- The Pack takes BJ Raji, and the Niners are on the clock. What will they do? I hope they don’t screw this up. They really have no choice but to take Crabtree. You just don’t see talents like that slip to you that often. They have to do it, or potentially watch while he blows up elsewhere.

2:18 -- Crabtree on the phone! And grinning! This is good. Being on the phone is always a good sign you’re about to get picked, but the fact his expression went from "My dog just got run over" to "I’m the next Jerry Rice" in two minutes means he’s about to be a Niner.

2:21 -- It’s official -- Michael Crabtree is a Niner, and I’m thrilled. It took me like 10 seconds to go from "Should we?" To "What the [SITE DECORUM] are you talking about?! Of course, we should!". In fact, I don’t know that I’ve been this excited about a pick in a long time. I knew Patrick Willis would be great, and I hoped Alex Smith and Vernon Davis would be. I honestly don’t know what Crabtree will be, but I’m damn excited to find out.

2:23 -- I click over to ESPN on the other tuner, and rewind to watch their coverage of the pick. It’s quickly followed by a interview between Crabtree and Erin Andrews -- this works on so many levels of entertainment. Great TV.

2:25 -- So Crabtree is headed to San Francisco -- at least there he won’t be the only man in a lavender shirt. See, I told you there was a joke in there somewhere.

2:26 -- The Bills select Aaron Maybin at #11, but I’m still too busy thinking about Crabtree to comment.

/goes back to picturing Crabtree beating Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie for a long TD on Monday Night Football, and Ron Jaworski getting so excited while talking about his talent, he has an orgasm on national TV.

2:31 -- The Broncos take Knowshon Moreno. They could use the help at RB, but what about that porous defense?

2:33 -- The picks are coming fast and furious now as the Skins take Brian Orakpo. I like how much quicker the Draft moves now -- I used to get so bored between picks, but now the pace is much more crisp and efficient.

2:40 -- The saints pick is in, and Jamie Dukes says what many others have -- they’ll take Beanie Wells. But it’s Wells’ teammate, Malcolm Jenkins.

2:43 -- The camera catches Brian Cushing putting his hand in his nose, then his mouth. Seconds later, his gets a call clearly telling him he’s about to be picked. Apparently, the Texans just can’t resist I guy with a ponytail who eats his boogers on national TV. Who can blame them?

2:45 -- It’s official -- the Texans take Brian Cushing. One more douchebag in Texas.

2:51 -- The Chargers take Larry English at #16. I’d like to give you some informed analysis on this pick, but to be perfectly honest, I’ve never heard of Larry English.

3:01 -- Cleveland trades down again -- sending the #17 pick they got from the Jets to Tampa, who picks Josh Freeman. Cleveland must be picking up quite a few picks today. If they end up trading Braylon Edwards for picks today, they could end up setting some kind of record.

3:02 -- The guys at the mian table are all giving Gruden crap about Tampa finally drafting a big-time QB now that he’s gone. Gruden is smiling, but he clearly wants to kill them all.

3:06 -- The Broncos use their second pick in the last half-hour to select Robert Ayers, finally adding some help to their D. The Net shows video of him absolutely owning Michael Oher in a Senior Bowl practice. Mayock: "He might be a big reason Oher hasn’t been drafted yet."

3:11 -- Eisen announces that the Browns have traded down yet again. They’ve dealt the #19 pick they got from Tampa to Philly, moving down to the Eagles’ spot at #21. The Eisen: "They’re stockpiling late-round picks, and also have three 2nd’s from their trade with the Jets."

3:13 -- Who did the Eagles trade up 2 spots to nab? Jeremy Maclin. between him and DeSean Jackson, the Eagles can't say they don’t have speed at WR.

3:19 -- Detroit uses their second pick to take Brandon Pettigrew. I’m surprised -- with all the problems they have, I’d think there would be a better use of their resources than that.

3:21 -- The Browns are on the clock. Again. They can’t possibly make another trade, can they?

3:24 -- Nope, no trade -- the Browns have made a pick: Alex Mack.

3:26 -- The Vikes are on the clock, and Mayock is pushing Percy Harvin as a way to help them stretch the field. Gruden concurs.

3:28 -- The Vikes do take Percy Harvin. Remember, the last time they took a WR who tested positive for pot in college it was Randy Moss. Dope-smoking WR’s FTW!

3:30 -- As the guys from The Net all celebrate the Harvin pick, Mayock gets off the line of the day: "We’re all patting ourselves on the back here, but if ends up on the Love Boat smoking a bone, we’ve all got a problem." I think I like this guy. No way Kiper comes up with a line like that.

3:36 -- The Pats trade down, sending the #23 pick to Baltimore, who takes Michael Oher. He may have slipped further than many people thought, but this has still got to be a great day for Oher -- his journey has now officially taken him from the outhouse to the penthouse. If you haven’t already read about his story in The Blind Side, I don’t know what you’re waiting for.

3:42 -- The Falcons take Peria Jerry. Or is it Jerry Peria?

3:45 -- The Dolphins are on the clock, and the guys on The Net are making the point that Parcells likes bloodlines -- both Brian Robiskie (son of Terry) and Clay Matthews (son of Clay) are available. The Phins make their pick -- Vontae Davis, VD’s brother. I don’t think those were the type of bloodlines they were talking about.

3:50 -- Fatigue is starting to become a factor. I’m not used to working this hard on a weekend. All this drinking and eating and watching and typing has me feeling more dead than that guy Donte Stallworth ran over. Too soon?

3:52 -- Bill Belicheck is making a run at the Browns -- the pats have traded down for the second time today, and trail Cleveland by only one trade-town. The Pats entered with 11 picks in the draft, and 6 in the top 100 -- more than anybody else. They now have 13 picks overall, and 8 in the top 100.

3:53 -- The Packers get the Pats pick, trading up from #26 to take Clay Matthews.

4:00 -- The Colts select Donald Brown. That’s all i have to say about that.

4:04 -- The Bills select Eric Wood. Mayock informs us that he is "not sexy". Seeing as he is an offensive lineman, I don’t find that especially surprising.

4:09 -- The Giants (and their loud mouth fans) take Hakeem Nicks to fill their void at WR, though I still wouldn’t be surprised if they trade for a big name WR between now and training camp.

4:18 -- With the #30 pick, the Titans choose Kenny Britt to fill the gaping hole left by Brandon Jones. Gaping, I tell you. Gaping.

4:20 -- Know what time it is? Time for Percy Harvin to get high. That’s what time it is.

4:22 -- The Cards are on the clock. Eisen suggests they might take Beanie Wells, but Mayock says he’s too similar to Tim Hightower, and Faulk agrees. Seriously? I think Wells in a whole other class than Hightower.

4:28 -- Yup, the Cards take Beanie Wells. And Mayock does a quick flip-flop, saying Wells is an "upgrade". He does question his ability to stay healthy. Faulk sticks to his "same as Hightower" argument

4:30 -- The world champion Steelers cap off the 1st round by drafting Evander "Ziggy" Hood. I’m not watching ESPN, but I’d be willing to bet $1,000 Chris Berman just made a "Ziggy Stardust" reference.

4:32 -- Alright, that’s it for me. I’m TiVoing the rest of this, while I go see if my wife is still speaking to me.

Attn: Rush Fans

Josh from Hollywood — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 20:11:10 -0000

Attn: Rush Fans

It seems the new movie 'I LOVE YOU, MAN' features McCC's most controversial band prominently, including a scene where the main characters (played by Paul Rudd and Jason Segel) attend a concert, and another where they belt out their own version of 'Limelight'. That track is also on the film's soundtrack, and you can hear it here.

Rush is back! Suck it, ~~jponry~~ haters!

ANY GIVEN FRIDAY: Super Bowlin'

Josh from Hollywood — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 21:16:45 -0000

Welcome to ‘Any Given Friday’, where we can't remember a Super Bowl matchup this unsexy which had so much potential to be a great game since Rams/Titans or at least Rams/Pats, where we’re still waiting to hear the last name of the Niners’ new offensive coordinator (Jimmy Raye What?), and where we're unhappy to say that due to real life commitments which take precedence over football (it's true, they exist), this will be my last column for while.

You know how when something is really big, they’ll say it’s the “Super Bowl of ________”? Like “The Super Bowl of competitive eating”, or “The Super Bowl of dog fighting”, or “The Super Bowl of Poker”. Okay, maybe that last one doesn’t really work -- and that’s only because the NFL will sue the pants off anyone who officially uses the term. But you know what I mean. It’s not just how we hype something up. We use the words “Super Bowl” to pump needed life into small-time matchups, like our fantasy league championship games: “It’s the Super Bowl of The Labia League, as the Pounding Fathers take on Porn on the Cob.”

It’s not just hype, it’s the very pinnacle of hype. The Super Bowl of hype, if I may be so bold. I say “Super Bowl”, you don’t just think football, you think expensive commercials, fighter plane flyovers, shots from the blimp, long halftimes, Media Day, and two weeks of hype, hype, hype. I don’t know how it is for you, but the Super Bowl is the one game I’ve never had to sell to a wife/girlfriend. There’s always a fun party to go to, or even just some friends getting together, and they bring their significant others as well. If the girls aren’t interested -- and surprisingly often they are -- then they can talk to each other and/or make us more food. Right there, my friends -- that’s the power of hype.

That being said, this year’s game is a little hard to get hyped up about. Sure, you’ve got the whole Whisenhunt-against-the-team-that-passed-him-over thing, the will-Hines Ward-play-or-not thing, and even the What-the-hell-was-Anquan Boldin-thinking-on-the-sidelines thing (more on that in a moment), but that doesn’t exactly get the blood boiling for Sunday. We do have a serious darkhorse against a team going for a record sixth Super Bowl, and that’s not all bad. And, as i stated in the opening, I also have a feeling this could be a sleeper matchup -- one which doesn't seem like a classic, but could be surprisingly entertaining.

BOLDIN BEAUTIFUL: I know the Anquan Boldin sideline situation has been talked to death, but I never got my two cents in, so before I get to the actual game, I wanted to rant a moment. Here goes: Things which happen on the sideline during a football game are supposed to be chalked up to extreme competitors expressing their will to win in a tremendously competitive environment. Even if a player is acting in what would usually be thought of a selfish manner, players and coaches alike write it off to “the heat of the battle”. And I usually agree with that sentiment wholeheartedly. But there have to be limits. And when your team is in a position to clinch a trip to the Super Bowl, you need to set your ego aside.

What bothered me most about Boldin’s actions during last week’s game against the Eagles wasn’t that he was arguing about playing time during the (very successful) drive which clinched the NFC Championship. It was the fact he tried to defend (or at least explain) the move afterwards by saying he was never told why he wasn’t in the game.

What does it matter why? That’s not for him to question. Especially when the team is running well in a formation which only features one WR. Boldin may be a great WR -- he’s actually been one of my personal favorites in terms of style and toughness -- but he’s not Larry Fitzgerald. Not before the playoffs, and certainly not after Fitz’s postseason performance, or Boldin’s injury. If there’s one WR in, Boldin should expect it to be Fitgerald. And if the formation is working, you shouldn’t complain. Being competitive is great, even if it makes you hard to deal with sometimes, but being competitive means wanting to win, not wanting to play a key role in a win.

Boldin leaving the game immediately is a little troubling as well. As a competitor, you’d imagine he’d want to savor the most important win in your career. You’d think his antipathy towards the Cardinal organization wouldn’t keep him from wanting to celebrate with his teammates. But that’s his decision, and while it’s distasteful, but not bad enough to be deemed unprofessional.

All that being said, if Boldin’s a great player, and will give his all in the Super Bowl. If his problems with Arizona management force a trade, I don’t see too many WR-needy teams who would balk at acquiring him over something like this. But he could still use a productive game vs. Pittsburgh to wipe the bad taste of this incident from people’s mouths.

After the jump, I'll get to the game.

Arizona (12-7) vs. Pittsburgh (14-4)

WILD CARDS: While the Steelers are this year’s rock -- the known quantity, the consistent team, the control group -- Arizona is this year wild cards (pun intended). They weren’t expected to do much in the postseason, and some thought it was a disgrace they even got there. But here we are three games later, trying to figure how they got here, and if they really have a chance to topple Pittsburgh.

The outstanding performances of Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald have grabbed the headlines in Arizona’s Cinderella run to the Super Bowl, but a resurgent defense has also played a big role in the Cards becoming the first seven-loss team to make it this far. The Cards D was only 19th in the league in yards allowed during the regular season, and is officially the worst D ever to reach the Super Bowl in terms of points allowed (they allowed 66 more than the previous worst, the ‘06 Colts). But the squad, led by respected coordinator Clancy Pendergast, did show a knack for the big play -- they led the league with 16 fumble recoveries. In the postseason, they’ve ramped that up a bit, forcing 12 turnovers in their three playoff games. This has come from improved play from vets like DE Antonio Smith, who had a sack for a safety and another forcing a fumble which led to a TD, and maturing young players such as rookie CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, who has six INT’s since Nov. 16.

STEEL CRAZY AFTER ALL THESE YEARS: The Steelers success is not nearly as mysterious as the Cards, as many of us had them getting this far. They have a dominating D (#1 in the NFL in total defense, pass defense, and scoring defense) led by the defensive player of the year (arguably not even the squad’s best player), a QB who’s already won a Super Bowl, and a rich tradition of winning. In fact, one could make the argument that Pittsburgh is the best team in the Super Bowl era. This will be their seventh appearance in the game in 43 years (second only to Dallas’ eight), and they have a stellar 5-1 record.

But it’s a little misleading to concentrate on the Steelers history -- this game will be played in Tampa, not the history books. And although Pittsburgh won the Super Bowl just three years ago, they had a different coach, and Ben Roethlisberger didn’t play particularly well. In fact, his numbers were downright shitty (9/21, 123 yards, 0 TD/2 INT). His team won more because their defense, some bad officiating, and TD pass to Ward from WR Antwaan Randle El.

So the Steelers do have some question marks. Can Mike Tomlin win the big one on his first shot? Can Roethlisberger bounce back to have a good Super Bowl in his second try? Can they win without their most dependable receiver? The answers to all those questions is probably “yes”, but there’s just enough uncertainly within this known commodity to make this an interesting game.

REST VS. RUST: One thing to keep in mind: The two weeks break since the championship games was probably welcomed more by the Steelers, who played an exceptionally hard-hitting game against Baltimore, than Arizona, who's on a hot streak, playing their best ball of the year.

X'S & OH'S: Former Steelers (and Niners, among others) CB Rod Woodson made news this week by saying the Cards are "toughest draw" for Pittsburgh. Woodson, a member of the NFL's 75th anniversary team, obviously knows a thing or two about defense, and feels the Cards match up well against that Steeler D:

"The way you beat a 3-4 team is you spread them out and you hit them in the seams. That's exactly how Arizona plays, and that's how they played them last year without Anquan Boldin."

THE VERDICT: Everybody's talking about the matchup between the Cards offense vs. the Steelers D, which would normally make me want to look at the other side of the ball. But that kinda boring. Sure, the Cards D is playing better, and the Steelers offense can be exciting -- Roethlisberger's ability to escape the rush often sets up big plays to WR's Ward, Santonio Holmes, and Nate Washington -- but I don't see it being a decisive matchup. I can't see the Steelers lighting up the scoreboard at will, nor do I see the Cards completely shutting them down. But I could see either happening on the other side of the ball. I don't think Arizona will torch the Pittsburgh secondary, but they could. Of course, the the Steelers could also harass Warner into lots of sacks, picks and/or fumbles, and shut the Cards down. That's a little more likely, though I'm not predicting that, either. In the end, I think Arizona will have some success through the air, and make a game of it, but the Steelers pass rush eventually gets to him, and rattles him down the stretch. Meanwhile, Big Ben and the Steeler O isn't spectacular, but scores enough points to win.

The pick: STEELERS 24, CARDS 20

FINAL NOTE: As I alluded to in the opening, my time has become a much scarcer commodity of late, and in the spirit of the poor economy, I need to lay off a couple of my hobbies. Unfortunately, one of those includes these columns, and the end of the season seems like a good time to do it. Please don't cry, you're just making it more awkward for us both. It's not you, it's me. I swear. Anyway, I hope to again find a balance in my schedule which allows me to contribute to this great site on a more regular basis. Until then, I'll be seeing you in the comment sections. I'll be the one lobbying for the Niners to take Gartrell Johnson in the middle rounds if he's still available.

Poll

Who ya got?

Pittsburgh, easy

45 votes

Pittsburgh, in a tight one

26 votes

Arizona, by a nose

60 votes

Arizona, surprisingly easy

20 votes

151 votes | Poll has closed

AFTER FURTHER REVIEW...: And Then There Were Two

Josh from Hollywood — Mon, 19 Jan 2009 07:16:55 -0000

Welcome to 'After Further Review...', where we can't believe the Arizona Cardinals are in the Super Bowl, where we're seriously re-thinking our choice for coach of the year, and where we're not sure if we mentioned this or not, but the Arizona Cardinals are in the Super Bowl.

CARD TRICKS: In the NFL Films annual Super Bowl highlight show after the 1984 season, there’s a clip of Niners C Randy Cross on the sideline late in their 38-16 win over Miami in Super Bowl XIX, grinning at the camera with pride: “People came to see an offense, and the wrong one showed up.” He was of course referring to all the hype leading up to the game about Dan Marino and his record breaking offense, and how it was Montana and Bill Walsh who delivered the high-flying offense that day. I was reminded of this Sunday watching the Arizona’s 32-25 win over Philly, as Cards O-coordinator Todd Haley was taking it to the Eagles defense. After all the talk of what Philly D-coordinator Jim Johnson could do to the Cards (myself included), it seemed everybody came to see a coordinator and the wrong one showed up.

Haley seemed to be one step ahead of Johnson the entire 1st half, as Arizona ran as effectively as they have all year, and had the Warner-to-Fitz express working as well. RB Edgerrin James was tearing off yardage in big chunks -- something he didn’t do even during his recent resurgence -- and the O-line was keeping the Eagles rush off him for the most part. But the highlight was the 62-yard double pass TD from RB JJ Arrington to Warner to Fitzgerald early in the 2nd quarter, which gave Arizona a 14-3 lead, and set the tone for the game. It was quite reminiscent of the to flea flicker from Warner to Fitz in the 1st quarter of the wild card round against Atlanta, which gave the Cards a 7-0 lead and set the tone for that game.

There’s no question Haley had some guidance from head coach Ken Whisenhunt, a former offensive coordinator known for his effective use of trick plays -- like the WR pass from Antwaan Randle El to Hines Ward he called in Pittsburgh’s Super Bowl victory three years ago. But coordinators get hired and fired based largely on their ability to call the right play at the right time, and Haley was all over it on Sunday. Besides the big plays, he also did a great job on the Arizona drive in the 4th quarter which resulted in the game-winning TD.

Philly had scored 19 straight points to grab a 25-24 lead. Arizona was on the ropes, struggling on offense, and badly in need of a momentum-changing drive. Facing a 4th and 1 at the Philly 49, Whisenhunt and Haley went with a run to RB Tim Hightower around the end (despite the fact Hightower had been stuffed on the previous play, a 3rd and 2). The play gained six yards, thanks largely to a block by FB Terrell Smith at the edge on CB Quintin Mikell. Then on 3rd and goal from the Philly 8-yard line, Haley again dialed up the right call, a screen pass to Hightower again for the game-deciding score to send the Cardinals to their very first Super Bowl. The Cardinals and Super Bowl -- it doesn’t sound right, but it is.

WHOOPS: In my Friday post before the playoffs, I ranked all the teams playing wild card weekend in terms of their chances to make the Super Bowl. I ranked Arizona last. Don't laugh, in the poll which accompanied that post, you all voted Arizona last as well -- they got one vote out of 100 cast (that guy should take a bow right about now). Before the second round, I re-seeded the teams and again picked the Cards last. Again, in the poll, you did as well -- they got two votes out of 210 cast. So I thought I'd give us a chance to explain ourselves. What happened? Were the Cards lucky to play the right teams at the right time and avoid cold weather? We were we stupid? Or was it just that unpredictable? Has parity made the NFL playoffs such a crapshoot that any team can get hot and run the table? Am I asking too many questions?

EASY AS 1-2-3: Pittsburgh’s third win over Baltimore this season was their easiest yet. Their defense stifled the Ravens offense, and they got enough big plays out of the passing game to win it fairly convincingly -- much more so than the two-point game with less than five minutes left would lead you to believe. The game remained close for that long due to some smoke and mirror work by Baltimore -- they bent but didn’t break on D, and maximized their scoring opportunity by converting their only decent drive of the first three quarters for a TD -- and some mistakes by Pittsburgh.

The Steelers moved the ball well throughout the 1st half, but couldn’t capitalize -- for a while there, I thought the game might mimic the Titans/Ravens game a week ago when Tennessee let Baltimore hang around too long. First, a huge replay reversal coast them a TD (more on that in a moment) and they had to settle for a FG. Then, the Steelers left another three points on the field when their poor clock management allowed time to run out in the 1st half while they had the ball inside the Ravens 20.

In the 2nd half, the Steelers offense sputtered, but their D continued to put the clamps down on Baltimore’s O. The Ravens only rushed for just 73 yards and a 2.9 YPC, and the game fell on the shoulders of rookie QB Joe Flacco. After avoiding costly mistakes during the first two weeks of the playoffs, Flacco finally looked like a rookie on Sunday. Now, Flacco hadn’t exactly lit it up in the first two playoff games of his career, but he hadn’t thrown a pick or taken a sack. Against the Steelers, he had three of each, and his line (13/30, 141 yards, 0 TD/3 INT) was the probably his worst of the year -- though his 11/28, 115, 0/2 the last time vs. Pittsburgh is certainly close. In fact, his ratings dropped as he went on (81.7, 22.2, 18.2).

While the Steelers had an even tougher time running the ball against the stout Raven front (52 yards, 1.9 YPC), and QB Ben Roethlisberger completed less than 50% of his passes, the ones he did complete went for big yardage. WR Hines Ward had a 45-yard catch to set up their first FG, Santonio Holmes had a 65-yard catch-and-run TD to put them up 13-0, and both TE Heath Miller (30 yards) and RB Cory Davis (20 yards) chipped in healthy gains.

Pittsburgh will play in its seventh Super Bowl (second only to Dallas’ eight), and attempt to win their league-record sixth . It’s the first appearance for head coach Mike Tomlin, who has a chance to win a title in only his second year in the job. To accomplish that, he’ll have to go through the guy the Steelers passed over to give him the job -- Whisenhunt. That should make for interesting conversation/hype during the next two weeks, no?

HERO OF THE WEEK: The Ravens/Steelers game wasn’t decided until S Troy Polamalu picked off a Flacco pass and took it back 40 yards for the game-icing TD. Polamalu may have been questionable to play Sunday, but nothing about his play could be questioned. He was active defending passes (deep and short), up at the line to stuff the run (including a key QB sneak on 4th and 1), and there when the Steelers needed him most -- making the big INT and weaving through traffic to take it to the house.

GOAT OF THE WEEK: Polamalu’s pick-6 was set up by a horrendous special teams penalty by Ravens backup S Daren Stone. Ravens fans everywhere thought their team would take over the possession at midfield, trailing 16-14, and needing only about 20 yards for a potential game-winning FG by K Matt Stover, but CBS cut to commercial break before Stone’s penalty was announced. It negated a great punt return by Jim Leonhard, and moved the ball all the way back to the Baltimore 14-yard line. The Ravens moved the ball a bit, and had they started at midfield, it might’ve been enough. Instead, they had to ask Flacco to keep throwing, and we know how that turned out.

RETURN TO NORMALCY: Through most of the playoffs, scoring first has been a bad thing -- teams scoring first had just a 2-6 record -- but on Sunday both Arizona and Pittsburgh scored first and won.

JOHN HARBAUGH, MASTER OF THE TIMELY CHALLENGE: I mentioned in the open that I’m questioning my choice of Mike Smith as coach of the year. If the award were given out after the postseason, I’d probably go with another first-year coach -- the Ravens John Harbaugh. Not because his team came within a game of the Super Bowl. Not because the other two successful rookie coaches lost their first playoff games. Not even because he beat one of them himself. But because of his seeming ability to keep his team close in games where they appear over-matched early on, and even more so, his competence in the replay challenge system.

After a huge, game-changing overturn last week, he had another vs. Pittsburgh. Just like last week, it occurred on a play which didn’t appear called incorrectly. Again, neither announcer mentioned the possibility of a Baltimore challenge. In fact, this time around, they were predicting a Pittsburgh challenge (Tomlin did throw the flag, but Harbaugh beat him to it). The play -- originally called a catch by Holmes down to the Ravens 1-yard line -- appeared to either be right or a TD. But Harbaugh and his staff quickly spotted that Holmes lost the ball as he hit the ground. Despite the fact he got several feet down (as well as a hand), under the rule change a couple of years back, is was an incompletion.

The call was reversed, and the Steelers had to settle for a FG, which saved Baltimore four points. They trailed 6-0 rather than 10-0, which allowed them to hang around a little longer than they otherwise would have. The Ravens may not have won, but Harbaugh and his well-trained staff gave them the best possible chance to win.

BURNING QUESTION: Any NIner fans out there at this point who don't wish they'd drafted DeSean Jackson when they had the chance? (If so, I'd love to hear why.)

MR. JANUARY: The Eagles may not have advanced to the Super Bowl, but they have have discovered a new passing threat in TE Brent Celek. Celek, who took over for LJ Smith a lot late in the year, had a stellar postseason, highlighted by his performance Sunday at Arizona. For the game, he set an Eagles playoff record with 10 catches, compiling 83 yards and two TD's. His postseason numbers (19 catches, 151 yards, and three TD's in three games), put his regular season totals (27 catches, 318 yards, 1 TD) to shame.

INJURY REPORT: Moving forward, the only major injury news from this week seems to be Hines Ward, who hurt his knee early on vs. the Ravens, and missed the final three quarters. Should Ward be out against the Cards, it should put a crimp in both their short passing game, and also their running game (his downfield blocking is legendary), though Holmes was pretty good in his absence on Sunday. Nate Washington would likely be Ward’s replacement as the starter, but Ward claimed after the game his injury is just a sprain, and that he'll play.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: Just like the Steelers and Cards, I’ll be taking this week off to get properly hyped up for the Super Bowl. I’ll be back with a Friday preview column before before the big game.

Poll

How did we mess up so bad in judging Arizona's Super Bowl chances?

We were right, they just got lucky

98 votes

We are stupid

23 votes

Parity has made the NFL playoffs a crapshoot

68 votes

Some combination of above

90 votes

Speak for yourself, I'm the guy who had Arizona all along

39 votes

318 votes | Poll has closed

ANY GIVEN FRIDAY: Championship Week Odds & Ends

Josh from Hollywood — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 05:42:59 -0000

Welcome to the ‘Any Given Friday’, where we think the defenses might out-score the offenses in Pittsburgh this weekend, where we’re wondering whether Mike Nolan might petition the league to become the first D-coordinator to wear a suit on the sidelines, and where we wouldn't pay a dime to watch Pac-Man Jones play football, but we can't get enough of listening to him talk.

UP CLOSE & PERSONAL: I woke up a little late last Sunday, just before kickoff, so I missed all the pregame shows. I did, however, record ‘The NFL Today’, and watched it sped through it on my TiVo, stopping to laugh at Dan Marino’s attempts at making a point, and Bill Cowher’s attempts at English. Toward the end of the show, was James Brown's interview with Pac-Man Jones and his lawyer, Red-Faced Dude With Toupee Hair about allegations that Jones ordered the murder of a guy who disrespected his lady friend in a strip club (I really hate it when that happens).

Now, you may have seen Stephen A. Smith’s interview with Pac-Man and Red-Faced Dude on ESPN, discussing the same allegations, but that was a little more of a side-show -- it was Stephen A., after all. But J.B. was at his professional best, and went all Jim Grey on Pac-Man, peppering him over and over with the same questions about his transgressions, and even making critical comments on the situation which weren’t even questions (maybe he thought he was the one being interviewed?). Pac-Man didn't help his case much, mumbling "scrip club" and "I had a drinking problem" a whole lot.

Then, at the end, JB flipped the switch into Oprah mode, giving Pac some homespun, fatherly advice -- that before he worried about getting back in the league, Jones should make sure that he “succeed in the game of life”. It really was one of the highlights of the season for me. If JB doesn't win a Sports Emmy for that, he'll fire his publicist. Although I will say one thing in favor of Stephen A.'s interview: he did get Pac-Man to say, about why he was hanging out in strip clubs, “I was just bein' rebellion".

I think we just found the title to his inevitable reality show -- 'Bein' Rebellion With Pac-Man Jones'.

NO, NOT THOSE SAFETIES, THE OTHER SAFETIES: I’ve been writing all year about what seems to be a tremendous rise in the amount of safeties (the 2-point play), but this weekend you'll probably hear a whole lot more about safeties (the defensive backs). Each team playing on Sunday has an outstanding safety playing for them, one their defense depends on for big plays and leadership.

Pittsburgh’s Troy Polamalu had a career high seven INT’s this season, and ranks among the game’s hardest hitting safeties. That group also includes Brian Dawkins, Philly’s longtime team leader who forced a career-high six fumbles this year. Baltimore’s Ed Reed is the NFL’s premiere ballhawk, leading the league in INT’s this season with nine. Arizona’s underrated (at least, outside the NFC West) Adrian Wilson does a little bit everything -- hard hits, tackling (he’s topped 100 twice, 75 this year), the occasional sack (he had eight in 2005, 2.5 this year), and forcing turnovers. The teams which win will probably look back to great play from their standout safety as one of the big reasons why.

CINDERELLA VS. CINDERELLA?: Never before have both #6 seeds made it to the conference championship games in the same year, so it's a bit surprising neither is an overwhelming underdog. Not only have Philly and Baltimore survived two road games to make it one step from the Super Bowl, they both can make excellent cases for why they will be in Tampa in two weeks. Philly is favored in their game on the road, playing a team they beat 48-20 in the regular season. Baltimore is a road dog, but they played Pittsburgh very tough in both their matchups this year (more on this later).

Of course, arguments for both home teams as well -- Arizona is hot and has played very well at home, and Pittsburgh is the top remaining seed and is 2-0 vs. the Ravens this year. So, what say you, Niners Nation? Who do you think will be playing in the big game?

Philadelphia (11-6-1) at Arizona (11-7)

LIGHTNING STRIKES TWICE: Before last weekend, no team had advanced to the conference championship game without winning 10 games in the regular season (in a non-strike year) since 1996. In fact, only seven teams have done it since the advent of the 16-game season. But both Philly (9-6-1) and Arizona (9-7) accomplished the feat within a 24-hour span. The winner of this game will be the first team to make the Super Bowl with only nine regular season wins since the 1979 Rams.

INJURY QUESTIONS: Arizona didn’t need WR Anquan Boldin last week at Carolina, but Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Johnson likely won’t let Larry Fitzgerald run wild like the Panthers did. If Johnson decides Fitzgerald won’t beat him (which I think he will), the Cards may need Boldin near full strength to stand a chance vs. Philly. For what's it's worth, he's practicing and says he'll be good to go.

Eagles RB Brian Westbrook is averaging just 1.9 YPC this postseason, the lowest of any RB still playing. That number likely needs to improve for the Eagles to go all the way. Improvement could be tough if his balky knee doesn’t improve -- he reportedly tweaked it on Sunday, and could be at well under 100% this week, but also says he'll play.

BY THE (POSTSEASON) NUMBERS:

-- In the playoffs, the Cardinals have a +7 turnover margin. In the regular season, they were exactly break-even, committing the same amount of turnovers as they forced.

-- In the playoffs so far, the Eagles have allowed only three 2nd half points. This is good, because studies have shown you can’t lose if the other team doesn’t score.

-- This is Philly’s fifth championship game in eight years. Not bad for a dumb coach and an overrated QB. Other players who’ve been around for the entire ride include S Brian Dawkins, K David Akers, and OL’s Tra Thomas and Jon Runyan.

-- During the regular season, the Cards ran the ball only 34% of the time, lowest in the league. In the playoffs, they have run the ball 52% of the time.

-- The Cards have won as many playoff games in the last two weeks as they have in their entire franchise history, dating back to 1920.

LOOKING AHEAD: If Philly wins this game, the hype for the Super Bowl will be intense -- even more than usual. On top of all the McNabb/Reid/long-suffering Eagles fans angles, either matchup would create extra buzz. An Eagles/Steelers game would of course be the battle for Pennsylvania. An Eagles/Ravens game would be the rematch of the game Andy Reid famously benched Donovan McNabb (and according to some, thus saved their season). Can you imagine the hype that would cranked out if this is the Super Bowl matchup? I almost have to pick this matchup for that reason alone. If it indeed comes to pass, my long-held belief that the producers of ‘SportsCenter’ have some say in how the games turn out will be proven correct once and for all.

TAKE YOUR PICK: Both the Cards and Eagles have DB’s on an INT roll. Rookie CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie has picks in three straight games for the Cardinals, while CB Asante Samuel has picks in two straight games, seven of his last 10 playoff games. Already tied for the NFL record with four career pick-6’s after his TD at Minnesota a week earlier, Samuel nearly added the record-breaker at New York on Sunday, getting tackled a yard short by Eli Manning.

BURNING QUESTION: Is anyone else shocked to learn that Donovan McNabb has the lowest INT rate in the history of the league?

HISTORY LESSON: On Thanksgiving night, the Eagles played the Cardinals. I’d like to say the Cardinals played, too, but mostly they just stood around watching while Philly put up 48 points. If you were hung up in the kitchen eating leftovers with your fingers like a slob, or passed out on the couch with a hand stuck down your pants Al Bundy-style, and missed the first few minutes of the game, then it was a blowout by the time you tuned in. It was 21-0 right out of the gate, and only got uglier from there. But that two months ago, on the east coast, and in cold weather. Still, it has to give the Eagles some confidence.

THE VERDICT: I've been rating the Eagles highly all postseason, ranking them behind only Indy among the teams who played the first weekend, and re-seeding them at #1 after that round. I doubted them against the Giants last week, and I've been kicking myself ever since. (Seriously, you should see the bruises.) So I just have to go with them here. But I have concerns, namely the passing game. I don't think there's any way Edge James will have much success in the game, but Warner could get hot at home and put some points. But if the Eagles blitzing gets to him, we all know he'll wilt. I say he has success early, and wilts late.

The pick: EAGLES 30, CARDINALS 20

Baltimore (13-5) at Pittsburgh (13-4)

MR. UNDERRATED: It’s easy to overlook Ravens WR Derrick Mason -- he’s smallish (5-10, 192), isn’t really a speedster, and has never had that one huge year, but he’s had 1,000+ yards in seven of the last eight seasons. I wrote a few weeks back about his courageous and clutch performance in Dallas when he separated a shoulder, but came back to recover a crucial fumble and catch a go-ahead TD. Playing against his old coach and team last week, he caught a long TD which was a key to sending the Ravens to the AFC Championship.

YOU AGAIN?: For the Ravens, this will be the third week in a row they’ve had a rematch of a regular season game in the playoffs. In fact, both championship games are rematches of games in the regular season, as were all four games last week, and two the week before. So, eight of ten playoff games so far have been rematches. And if Philly wins on Sunday, the Super Bowl will be as well -- the Eagles beat the Steelers 15-6 in Week 3, and lost to the Ravens 36-7 in Week 12.

THE FOOTBALL GODS: Almost any time a wild card makes a run to the Super Bowl, they appear to be a Team Of Destiny -- partly because it takes catching a few breaks to get there. The Ravens caught one last week when there was no delay of game on the big 3rd and 2 which Joe Flacco converted into a huge 22-yard gain to TE Todd Heap -- only after the play clock expired. And then stayed expired. And then came the snap -- with no flag. A big deal has been made of this, with commentators complaining, and even Titans coach Jeff Fisher calling it “inexcusable”, but I don’t really get it (then again, I’m not a Titans fan). Here are three reasons I think it’s overblown:

1) This happens all the time. There has always been a delay of about a second while the ref who’s tasked with looking at two things at once moves his eyes back and forth. While the delay seemed a lot longer than that -- and Dan Dierdorf claimed it was three seconds -- but it was actually just over a second. It seemed longer, in my opinion, because it was the playoffs, a close game, and a key late moment, and we were all watching with extra anticipation.

2) The Titans defense did not seem aware of the play clock expiring, and were ready to play, so they have no room for complaint. The fact they were burned for 22 yards outweighs any bad break they got, and a delay of game penalty would’ve been a gift, not something they earned in any way.

3) Even a delay of game would’ve only caused a 3rd and 7 rather than a 3rd and 2, and the Titans did allow 22 yards. Yes, the difference in distance would’ve likely required a different defense, the Titans probably wouldn’t have respected the run, etc. But the point remains, you allow 22 yard gains on 3rd down late in games, I don’t want to hear you wining about “inexcusable”, even if you played and coached for Buddy Ryan, and shared a same defensive backfield in college with Ronnie Lott (10-time Pro Bowler), Dennis Smith (six-time Pro Bowler), and Joey Browner (six-time Pro Bowler).

HOLD THE LINE: The Steelers have had problems with their O-line all year, but put up a solid performance vs. the Chargers last week. Willie Parker had 146 yards and two TD’s, and sack-prone Ben Roethlisberger was only sacked once.

INJURY QUESTIONS: After LB Terrell Suggs left the game vs. the Titans last week, Baltimore struggled to put any kind of pressure at all on QB Kerry Collins. Suggs will reportedly be a gametime decision. If can’t play this week, or is at less than full strength, it could deal a major blow to a Ravens D that seemed to be dragging a bit at Tennessee after playing 17 straight weeks.

Steelers LB James Harrison was the NFL’s defensive player of the year, but many people believe S Troy Polamalu is the team’s most important defender. He greatly affects both the running and passing games, and is the inspirational leader. Despite a calf injury, Polamalu will reportedly play.

SMALL SAMPLE SIZE: So far, Steelers coach Mike Tomlin has a 22-10 record as head coach of the Steelers -- a better winning percentage (.688) than either of his Super Bowl-winning predecessors, Bill Cowher (.623) or Chuck Noll (.566). Of course, he has a long way to go in terms of his postseason resume: He’s 1-1, while both Cowher (12-9) and Noll (16-8) had winning records to go along with their five Lombardi trophies. Cowher struggled in his championship game experiences, going 2-4 and losing three at home, while Noll went 4-3.

HISTORY LESSON: Both Steelers/Ravens games were tight affairs which went right down to the wire. Everybody remembers the showdown in Baltimore for the AFC North crown which was decided by the controversial TD call on Santonio Holmes’ catch at the goal line in the last minute. What you may not remember is that the first matchup in Week 4 went to OT, with the Steelers winning 23-20. In the game, the Ravens out-gained the Steelers, and out-scored them -- at least, on offense. LB LaMarr Woodley returned a fumble for a TD to help Pittsburgh win.

THE VERDICT: We’ve all heard the old saying around the NFL that it's hard to beat a team three times. To that, I say, "Well, duh". it's hard to beat good teams one time, and if you're facing them for the third time it means they're in the playoffs, which pretty much guarantees they're a good team. But it's extra hard when both the earlier games were nail-biters which could've easily gone the other way. It will likely be the same type of game, and will come down to one crucial play or factor. My guess is, that factor could be fatigue -- and a scheduling snafu. The Ravens have played 17 straight weeks because they were forced to take their bye in Week 2 due to Hurricane Ike hitting Houston. Even had they played the Texans then, rather than Week 10, they would have played only nine straight, while Pittsburgh's only at one. Baltimore's D seemed a step slower last week, but they were playing on short rest (six days after their victory over the Dolphins). This week, they'll have extra rest (eight days), but I think the season's toll -- combined with the Steelers freshness -- will make a slight difference.

The pick: STEELERS 20, RAVENS 17

LAST WEEK: 2-2

Poll

What will be the matchup in the Super Bowl?

Steelers vs. Eagles

36 votes

Steelers vs. Cardinals

28 votes

Ravens vs. Eagles

33 votes

Ravens vs. Cardinals

15 votes

112 votes | Poll has closed

AFTER FURTHER REVIEW...: The Final Four

Josh from Hollywood — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 02:34:37 -0000

Welcome to 'After Further Review...', where we think all these upsets are making the NFL playoffs feel like March Madness, where we can't wait for Steelers/Ravens III ("This time, it's for Tampa"), and where we'd like to remind you we wrote on this in Friday's post: "we were tempted to take each of the four road dogs this weekend (yes, even Arizona)."

I also said the divisional round was the best week, with the most shocking upsets, even of #1 seeds. So what happens? Both #1 seeds take it in on the chin, and a #2 as well. The Arizona upset of Carolina felt like a #10 seed beating a #2 to make the Sweet 16. Of all the top seeds, only Pittsburgh won at home, and will host one championship game, while Arizona, the red-headed stepchild of the NFC playoffs, will host the other -- the only 9-7 team ever to host a championship game.

Cinderellas were lurking everywhere: both #6 seeds are in championship games for the same time ever, and #6's are now 4-0 against #1 seeds in the last four games, after losing all of the previous 10. Most of us got Tennessee right in the upset poll last week, and several folks took Philly (a select few even picked Carolina). Unfortunately, when it came to my bracket picks, I didn't have the cojones to take the Cinderellas I liked. See, I wanted to take Arizona, honest I did. And I wasn't all that hot on New York, either. I only ended up only picking one road team (luckily, it was Baltimore), so I got two of the Final Four right. Why didn't I have a great 3-1 or 4-0 weekend, with at least two upset picks? Because I was too much of a [SITE DECORUM] to go with my gut. Let that be a lesson to you youngsters out there: Don't be a [SITE DECORUM].

Philly beat New York 23-11 -- the only game ever to end with that score. Just like the only 11-10 game ever earlier this year. Why all these weird scores involving the number 11? The power of the safety, baby. The power of the safety. And you know what that means...

SAFETYWATCH '08: That's right -- you know it, you love it, you can't live without it*...

Giants DE Justin Tuck forced Eagles QB Donovan McNabb into an intentional grounding in the end zone for a safety in the 2nd quarter Sunday. I really think we're headed for a Super Bowl-deciding safety this year. It's my dream, and it's my nightmare. And with either Baltimore or Pittsburgh in the game, it's damn likely as well.

* Not true.

SUCKER PUNCHED: Last week, I wrote about how the divisional round of the playoffs provides the opportunity for a hot team coming off a big win (and often a string of them) to knock off a conference power coming off a bye (and often rusty). I mentioned how a great season can be derailed by one flat effort, one bad matchup, one otherworldly performance. Bill Simmons often writes about “The Gut Punch Game”, where a team loses a game it seemingly had in the bag. Well, this should be called “The Sucker Punch Game”, because you almost never see it coming, and because that’s the best way for any underdog to win a fight -- by knocking the bigger guy on his ass before he knows what’s going on. Kind of like Michael Westbrook v. Stephen Davis (scroll down to #9).

No game this weekend better exemplified this phenomenon than Cards/Panthers. Carolina came out looking very strong, scoring a TD on their opening drive after only five plays -- gashing Arizona on the ground, left and right. It looked like a replay of the Cardinals other games vs. playoff opponents down the stretch, when they quickly fell behind 21-0 to Philly, Minnesota, and New England. Unfortunately, it looked like the Panthers had seen those game tapes, because they immediately went into sleepwalk mode, as if Arizona would just lay down for them. They didn’t.

The Cardinals did what they’ve struggled to do all year on the road -- take an early punch, and counter back with their own attack rather than roll up into a ball. They scored to tie the game, then recovered a fumble, and turned that into another score. The rest is a blur, but it involves a whole lot of Jake Delhomme throwing picks and Larry Fitzgerald running wild through the Panther secondary (more on them in a moment). Before it was over, the Cardinals had run off 33 straight points, and the score looked just about how most people expected -- except in reverse -- 33-13.

I don’t think there’s much doubt the Panthers suffered the sucker punch of the weekend -- a supposedly soft passing team from a dome, with a coach in his first playoffs goes on the road to take down the running-and-defense team with the coach who’s been to a Super Bowl.

TURNING POINT #1: Donovan McNabb had just thrown a pick. His team was down 11-10, and his offensive numbers did not look good. The Eagles' only TD came on a one-yard drive, Giants rush was getting to him, and the crowd was into it. He faced a 3rd and 20 when he dropped back to pass, had to avoid both Tuck and Mathias Kiwanuka in the backfield, but twisted away from both (injuring Kiwanuka in the process). Finding a little space, he found WR Jason Avant for a 21-yard gain, and a huge first down. The Eagles got another big 3rd down conversion from WR Kevin Curtis (after he dropped what would’ve been a long gain), and eventually kicked a FG to take a 13-11 lead. That was a lead they would never lose, as they ended up coasting to a surprisingly easy win. So easy, McNabb felt comfortable making a phone call during the game -- from the Giants bench, picking up a 15-yard penalty. McNabb told FOX’s Chris Meyers he shouldn’t have done that, but something tells me the Giants and their fans might remember that one for awhile.

“INJURED, PENALIZED, AND TURNOVER-PRONE IS NO WAY TO GO THROUGH LIFE, SON”: The Titans became the #1 seed in the AFC by playing stout defense and running the ball successfully. Both those areas showed up relatively well for them on Saturday (13 points allowed, 117 yards on 26 carries). They also reached their 13-3 record during the regular season by staying relatively healthy, and avoiding damaging penalties and critical mistakes. Those areas pretty much went in the toilet this weekend, pulling their entire season down with them.

One of the big questions coming into the game was the health of two Titans linemen -- DT Albert Haynesworth and C Kevin Mawae. As it turned out, that was just the start of their injury problems. Haynesworth played most of the game (though had to be helped off the field at one point), but Mawae sat out, which may have affected the Titans O-line on Ravens blitzes (QB Kerry Collins had a 81 QB rating and no INT’s on four-man rushes, and only a 51.5 rating and one INT when they brought extra rushers). In addition, they lost their top offensive playmaker, RB Chris Johnson, for the game after a quick start (100 yards from scrimmage in less than a half), and had to play for a time without DE Jevon Kearse, who left briefly with yet another injury.

The Titans lost -- and only scored 10 points in doing so -- despite out-gaining the Ravens 391-211. That’s not easy to do, but it helps when you challenge the NFL record for most penalties in a playoff game. They had 12 penalties for 89 yards -- second only to the Denver Broncos back in January of ‘92. You knew it was going to be bad when Dan Dierdorf’s quote of coach Jeff Fisher at kickoff ("There will beplenty of invitations to fight, we have to turn them down") was followed by the Titans getting an unnecessary roughness penalty after the whistle on the fourth snap of the game. That was like the team saying, “Uh, yeah, coach, whatever. We’re way too amped for this game to worry about fundamentals.” Which brings us to...

After finishing the season as the second-best team in football in terms of turnover margin -- their +14 trailed only Miami’s +17 -- they coughed up a -3 performance at the worst possible time. I guess it shouldn’t come as a complete surprise -- Baltimore was just a week removed from forcing the league-leading ball-controllers into a -4 performance -- but nobody could’ve imagined that all three of their turnovers would occur in the red zone.

PLAYER OF THE WEEK: In Friday's post, I talked about Fitzgerald was the best WR in the league at going up for a ball in traffic, and how the Cards would need a big day from him to compete. Against the Panthers, Fitzgerald showed the same dominant skills, coming up with another circus catch in traffic on a jump ball, and continually getting wide open. For the game, he had 166 yards receiving -- of Warner’s 220 passing (83%) -- including a 29-yard TD. Everyone knew Fitzgerald was Arizona’s main threat through the air, especially with Boldin out. When he began to tear their secondary apart, Daryl Johnston and every Panthers fan in Bank of America Stadium (a name so unmemorable I had to look it up) was begging them to double-team, or even triple-team -- if not pull an outright “sweep the leg” tactic.

But Panther defensive coordinator Mike Trgovac appeared to have less idea how to stop Fitzgerald than he has vowels in his last name. On Friday, I also warned that " sometimes someone just goes Anthony Carter all over your ass". On Saturday, Fitzgerald was that someone, and the Panthers were that ass.

GOAT OF THE WEEK: Fitzgerald wasn’t enough to beat Carolina single-handedly. But the Cards got a whole lot of help from another player. And although Eli Manning played like crap, can there really be any doubt who had the most damaging performance for their own team? Delhomme was just supposed to be a game manager. About what his 15 TD/12 INT for the season would make you expect. -- a caretaker for a running-and-defense team, as he was for the Panthers Super Bowl team in 2003. But against Arizona, on his 34th birthday no less, he threw five (5) picks, and had a very costly fumble (more on that in a moment). And it wasn’t like the running game was stuffed and he had to force things (5.0 YPC) -- he just forced things all on his own. Delhomme’s performance was so bad, we may hear about Carolina looking for another QB this off-season.

TURNING POINT #2: Speaking of that Delhomme fumble... The Cards had just tied the game, and the Panthers took over on their own 20. The first play was a pass -- or at least, that’s how they drew it up. Arizona DL Antonio Smith, who last week sacked Falcons QB Matt Ryan for a safety, again broke free into the backfield. Smith stripped Delhomme of the ball, and recovered it himself for a huge turnover. The Cards scored two plays later and suddenly it was 14-7 Arizona. That huge momentum swing -- two TD’s and a fumble in less than a minute of game time -- seemed to stun the Panthers, and they never seemed to fully recover (especially after Delhomme threw another pick in the red zone less than two minutes later).

BY THE NUMBERS: A few quick hits from the Steelers 35-24 win over San Diego:

-- The Steelers out-rushed the Chargers 165-15. Those 15 yards are the sixth-least in NFL playoff history.

-- That ridiculously low total is due in part to the fact San Diego ran all of one offensive play in the 3rd quarter -- and that was an interception.

-- On Pittsburgh's first four drives, they ran 21 plays for 72 yards and 0 points. On their next eight drives, they ran 49 plays for 270 yards and 28 points.

-- Even after Pittsburgh's win, teams coming off a bye are just 5-7 in the last three years.

TURNING POINT #3: The Ravens were off to a slow start in Tennessee. They had just allowed a frighteningly easy-looking TD drive to the Titans, and the vaunted Baltimore D appeared a step slow. The Raven were also looking shaky on offense -- five total yards on two drives. The crowd was into it, and the game was in danger of getting away from Baltimore -- down 7-0 on the road in a hostile environment, playing the #1 seed, and facing a 3rd and 18 in their own territory -- when rookie QB Joe Flacco came up big.

After an encroachment penalty on Titans DE Kyle Vanden Bosch made it 3rd and 13 at the Titans 47, Flacco dropped back, and heaved the ball deep on a low line drive (an impressive throw which was reminiscent of a young Favre or Elway) to a streaking WR Derrick Mason, who hauled it in for a huge TD. The Ravens had tied the game just three minutes after Tennessee had taken the lead, and stemmed the tide of emotion. The game then assumed the tenor we all expected -- a tough, low-scoring defensive battle -- with neither team scoring for more than 32 minutes of game time. The Ravens D bent, but didn’t break, and you have to wonder if they could’ve maintained that stance had their offense not given them some early reason to believe.

COACHING MOVE OF WEEK: Rookie coach Jim Harbaugh has looked like anything but this season. He’s fallen in the shadow of Mike Smith and Tony Sparano because conventional wisdom says he was blessed with more talent, but in the playoffs he’s stepped to the front of the stage. While the other rookie coaches were one-and-done, Harbaugh is 2-0, and I thought one if his moves on Saturday was the best of the weekend.

The score was 7-7 early in the 3rd quarter when a catch by Titans TE Bo Scaife which set up a 46-yard FG attempt for Bironas. But Harbaugh (or more likely his people in the booth upstairs) spotted something everyone else -- refs, announcers, me -- missed: Scaife bobbled the ball on his way out of bounds. Whoever saw it, the credit should go to Harbaugh -- setting up a good replay system with able assistants is a big part of being a head coach in the NFL (just ask Mike Nolan -- actually, on second thought, don’t).

Harbaugh quickly challenged before the snap, and the play was overturned. The incomplete pass left the ball just five yards further back, but made for a much tougher, 51-yard attempt for Bironas. He pulled his kick just wide to the left, and the game remained tied. In the end, the difference in the kick may have been the challenge, and those three points may have been the difference in the game.

PUTTING THE “O” IN JOE: Flacco not only became the first rookie QB ever to win back-to-back playoff games, but he’s done it without throwing any interceptions or being sacked a single time. He may not put up fancy, new-fangled passing statistics, but a lot can be said about just taking what the defense gives you, not making any mistakes, and letting your running game and defense do the heavy lifting. If you don’t believe me, just ask the Panthers.

TURNING POINT #4: As the Chargers/Steelers game started, things had to be tense in Pittsburgh. All the home teams had lost, and their Steelers were about to take on a red-hot San Diego, who had not only won five straight must-win games, and beaten Indy last week, but also gave Pittsburgh all they could handle earlier this year. Then the game starts, and the Chargers rip off big plays to TE Antonio Gates and RB Darren Sproles, followed by Philip Rivers deep ball to DUI Boy himself, Vincent Jackson, who makes a highlight reel TD with his arm hooked by the defender. Suddenly, it was 7-0 Chargers, and you could probably cut the tension in Pittsburgh with a knife. (Also: vehicular criminals were having a very good game.)

But then a funny thing happened -- the Steelers took advantage of the area of the game where they were supposed to be at a disadvantage: the punting game. Or, more precisely, The Mike Scifres Game. Only on this day, the Steelers had Kryptonite for the punting superman -- in the form of PR Santonio Holmes, who took his first punt bank 67 yards for a TD to tie the game. Along the way, he avoided Scifres and leapt over WR Legedu Naanee, who made a pretty weak dive at his knees instead of just shoving him out (when Jim Nantz basically calls you out for being a pussy, that's what you are). The big play released the pressure and got the Heinz Field crowd back into it. Although the Chargers added the next points on a FG, the Steelers then ripped off 21 points and marched on to a relatively easy win.

JUST ENGAGE: When a team’s leading receiver has just 651 yards, and is going against one of the best defenses in the NFL, you don’t expect him to have a breakout game. But that’s just what Tennessee’s WR Justin Gage did vs. the Ravens, catching 10 balls for 135 yards, including huge conversions on 3rd and 9 and 3rd and 11 on one 4th quarter drive alone (before TE Alge Crumpler fumbled in the red zone). But he couldn’t get in the end zone, and that was the story of the day for Tennessee. But lost amongst their disappointment in the abrupt end to their season, Titans fans have to hope that's a taste of what they' might see from Gage down the road.

ANY GIVEN FRIDAY: Bye, Bye

Josh from Hollywood — Fri, 09 Jan 2009 02:10:14 -0000

Welcome to ‘Any Given Friday’, where the divisional round of the playoffs is traditionally our favorite week of the season, where we can’t understand how a guy who just got fired from the Jets has a new job already while a guy who just interviewed for the Jets opening has been fired already, and where we were tempted to take each of the four road dogs this weekend (yes, even Arizona).

There’s nothing worse than earning the bye, waiting for a week, and then getting kicked in the teeth at home by some wild card team on a roll. Actually, getting kicked in the teeth is a more pleasant experience than watching the Vikings beat the 13-2 #1 seed Niners in this debacle at The Stick in January of '88. The 49ers seemed flawless during the regular season, but had two rookie CB's (Don Griffin and Tim McKyer) seeing significant time. Anthony Carter exploited that to have one of the all-time great post-season performances -- 10 catches, 227 yards, and two circus catches which would make Jerry Rice blush (while Rice was held to three catches for 28 yards). That was bad enough, but seeing Joe Montana throw a pick-6 and then get benched for Steve Young (in his first year with the team) was like a knife to the gut.

I was so bummed out after that game, I laid on my bed in the dark for hours. I wouldn't even take calls from my friends. That’s all I could really do -- I was a kid, and liquor had yet to enter my life. Unfortunately, when the defending world champion Niners lost at home after a bye to the Packers in this disaster in January of '96, liquor was a key component in me splintering my coffee table with an aluminum bat. I was enraged when the Niners first play from scrimmage went to FB Adam Walker, who had a cast on one hand and had struggled to hold on to anything late in the year. Walker fumbled, and it was returned for a TD by CB Craig Newsome. I only got angrier (and drunker) as both Green Bay’s TE’s Mark Chmura and Keith Jackson caught TD’s on obvious pick plays that had Niners SS Tim McDonald in the ref’s faces). That year, McDonald had increasingly been a target for passers, as he'd lost a step off of what was never great speed -- Favre and his receivers exploited that.

The point is, this is the weekend where those small flaws get exploited, where a sluggish start can spell a quick finish for even the greatest of seasons. That’s what all the fans of this weekend’s home teams are worrying about right now. Will they be rusty? What if they come out flat, and the road dog takes the lead early? How will they respond to adversity?

Sometimes the matchups just don’t go your way. Other times it might be a key injury. And sometimes someone just goes Anthony Carter all over your ass. Either way, both top seeds don’t usually end up the conference title games. The question is, who will be the top seed staying home? Here are my rankings -- from most likely to win to most likely to be upset:

Carolina -- Arizona played them very tough in Week 8, the focus and film study will be better, Arizona hasn’t beaten a non-NFC West team on the road this year, Boldin’s injury is a major question mark for the Cards. You get the idea.

New York -- They may be playing a division rival for the third time -- always tough, as they know from last year’s divisional round upset at Dallas -- and they may have lost to them only five weeks ago at home, but I think they are probably still the best overall team in football.

Pittsburgh -- The Chargers have already played the Steelers tough in Pittsburgh once this season, losing that infamous 11-10 game. And despite their injuries, San Diego has been great in the playoffs under Turner, even playing well on the road -- including a win in this round last year at Indy, also without LT.

Tennessee -- This isn’t a slam on the team, but they have several the things you look for in a potential upset victim -- 1) non-dominant offense (if they fall behind, they’ll be in trouble), 2) questionable QB (think of Collins trying to throw to win late against Ed Reed), 3) a previous game against the same opponent where they almost lost -- and won due to a bad call.

Arizona (10-7) at Carolina (12-4)

BACK FROM THE EDGE: In one mildly successful week, RB Edgerrin James went from the back of the milk carton to the front of the sports section. Seriously, I’ve never seen so many people so excited about a guy getting 73 yards on 16 carries with no TD’s. But such is the state of James’ career, and the Cards’ running game. But when the chips were down and Arizona badly needed a couple of 1st downs to “run” out the clock, they showed they know which side their bread is buttered on, throwing on most downs.

Up 30-24, with just 2:17 left, the Cards needed to convert a 3rd and 16 to ice the game, and QB Kurt Warner threw to little-used backup TE Stephen Spach for 23 yards. Passing to Spach, who only had two catches all year and nine in his three-year career, with the game on the line? Now, that’s illogical (Get it? ‘Cuz Spach is pronounced “Spock”. The Vulcan in ‘Star Trek’, who always thought logically... Nevermind.)

YOU'RE THE BEST... AROUND: One of my pet peeves are receivers who don't catch the ball at its highest point, waiting for it to get to their chest, and thereby allowing a defender to knock it -- or them -- away. Last week against the Falcons, WR Larry Fitzgerald showed why he's the best receiver in the game at catching a jump ball.

Less than five minutes in, the Cards called a flea-flicker and Warner perfectly lofted a deep ball to give him a good shot (another pet peeve: QB's who don't put enough air under deep balls. see: Smith, Alex). Fitzgerald timed his leap perfectly, and went up in traffic to make the grab -- just as he always seems to. For the Cards to have any chance Saturday, he and Warner will probably have to hook up on at least one big play like that.

INJURY UPDATE: Cards WR Anquan Boldin pulled a hammy in last week's win over Atlanta and didn't practice all week. He'll try to test the injury on Saturday, but whether or not he plays, I'm highly doubtful he'll be anywhere near 100%.

ANCIENT HISTORY: In Week 8, the Cards jumped out to a 10-0 in Carolina, and led 17-3 more than halfway through the 3rd quarter. After the Panthers stormed back to tie the game at 17-17, Arizona again took the lead, 23-17 (after missing the PAT). The Cards held that lead for 56 seconds before Steve Smith hauled in a 65-yard TD from Jake Delhomme, and Carolina never looked back, winning 27-23.

BY THE NUMBERS: In that Week 8 tilt, Warner had himself quite a day against the Panther secondary 35/49, 381 yards and 2 TD’s. He did throw a pick, to LB Jon Beason.

THE VERDICT: I think this game is going to be better than most people think. Carolina isn’t exactly Chicago when it comes to weather, and the temperature is forecast in the mid-50’s on Sunday, so the Cards might not suffer much from the elements. But as I mentioned up top, the playoffs are different than the regular season, both in terms of preparation and intensity. Even if the Cards are able to get it going through the air without a healthy Boldin, I believe at some point in the second half, the Panthers RB duo of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart will take over, and the defense will make (at least) one big play.

The pick: PANTHERS 27, CARDINALS 17

San Diego (9-8) at Pittsburgh (12-4)

RIGHT PLACE, RIGHT TIME: Chargers LB Tim Dobbins didn’t have a sack in the regular season. He didn’t have one last year, either. As a matter of fact, he’s never had one in his three year career. Until Saturday, that is. After failing to sack Manning for 58 minutes, and needing a stop to have any chance to win the game, defensive coordinator Ron Rivera sent Dobbins on a well-disguised blitz. Dobbins sacked Manning at his 1-yard line, forcing the Colts to punt out of the back of their end zone. Needing to concentrate on just getting the punt off, the Colts allowed a 26 yard return, and San Diego started their game-tying drive on Indy’s 38 needing just a FG.

San Diego’s defense has been better of late -- many point to Rivera as the reason --and looked good against Indy. They’ll need to keep that up -- and the score down -- if they expect to beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh.

BY THE NUMBERS: This stat is so amazing, so surprising, so counter-intuitive, it has to be our Stat O’ The Week: As head coach in San Diego, Norv Turner is 12-1 in December and January.

INJURY REPORT: Whenever you have a torn groin, that’s not good. If your job is to run real fast and get pummeled by large men, that’s really not good. I think it's safe to say Tomlinson won't play a big role in this game.

ANCIENT HISTORY: In January 1995, these teams hooked up in Pittsburgh for the AFC Championship -- and, as it turned out, the right to get their asses kicked by the Niners in the Super Bowl. The Chargers won 17-13 after the Steelers’ last gasp -- a pass from QB Neil O’Donnell to RB Barry Foster -- fell incomplete at the goal line.

(NOT SO) ANCIENT HISTORY: The above mentioned 11-10 game in Week 11, was of course, the only in league history. San Diego led 7-5 at halftime, and 10-8 until the final seconds. Looking at the numbers, it’s hard to figure out why -- Philip Rivers had just 164 yards passing, no TD’s, and two INT’s, and LT had only 57 yards on the ground, while Ben Roethlisberger had 308 yards passing, and Willie Parker had 115 rushing.

THE VERDICT: I really want to take the Chargers here. I think they’ll play them tough, and if Tomlinson was healthy, I’d probably go that way. But with his injury, and Sproles performance last week it’s an exceptionally tough game to pick. But I don’t think Sproles can do that against the Steelers D (only one 300+ yard game allowed all season), especially on that field -- double-especially since they have rain and snow forecast from now until gameday. It’s supposed to clear Sunday, but with a high of 26 and in the winds of Hines field, I’ll take Big Ben and Hines Ward over Rivers and DUI Boy.

The pick: STEELERS 20, CHARGERS 16

Baltimore (12-5) at Tennessee (13-3)

REST OR RUST: It's the age-old question: What does three weeks rest do for a team? Will head coach Jeff Fisher's decision to rest his starters in Indy during a season-ending blowout loss be hailed as a gutsy maverick move as the Titans come out fresh and strong, or will it be criticized as a dumb move after Tennessee comes out flat and mistake-prone? Those are your only options, really.

JOE VS. THE HISTORY BOOKS: Last week, Ravens Joe Flacco became the first rookie QB to win on the road in the playoffs since the merger (After Matt Ryan had run their record to 0-4 the day before). Flacco and Roethlisberger are the only QB’s starting their first playoff games to win in the last 13 tries (Ryan and Tarvaris Jackson both fell victim to that). It’s not like Flacco played all that well -- 9/13, 135 yards -- but he avoided turnovers and let his defense and running game win it for him.

BY THE NUMBERS: I touched on this point last week, but it bears repeating -- Good news: All five of Baltimore’s losses are to playoff teams. Bad news: They are 0-3 vs. Pittsburgh and Tennessee -- the teams likely standing between them and the Super Bowl (though none by more than four points).

BY THE NUMBERS 2: I mentioned on Monday that Ravens S Ed Reed has two INT’s in an amazing three straight games, but after further review, it’s even more amazing -- he’s also done it in five of the last seven games.

BY THE (MADE UP) NUMBERS: I don’t know if Vegas runs odds on how many turnovers Reed will have, or where to find them if they do, but the Any Given Friday Sportsbook puts it at .9. Even against the conservative Titans, I’m taking the over.

ANCIENT HISTORY: The Ravens visited the Titans under similar circumstances eight years ago this week, also in the divisional round of the playoffs. The Titans were division winners at 13-3, as they are this year. The Ravens were tough luck losers both year -- then to the Titans in the old AFC Central at 12-4, this year to the Steelers in AFC North at 11-5. The Ravens beat the Titans to advance to the AFC Title game.

(NOT SO) ANCIENT HISTORY: In Week 5, these teams went at it in a typically tough, defensive struggle, featuring several shoving matches. Flacco threw two picks, and the Titans won, 13-10, but only after scoring the last 10 points, including a late TD following a very iffy rough the passer call on Terrell Suggs.

THE VERDICT: I keep wanting to rate the Ravens higher than I do, but I hold off because of Joe Flacco. It hasn’t hurt them yet, but I think this might be the week. He didn’t beat them last week, but he didn’t provide much help, either. On the other side, injuries to DT Albert Haynesworth and C Kevin Mawae could weaken both of Tennessee’s lines -- against Baltimore, that could be very bad. So this game is very even, as the teams were during the season (both teams had identical +141 point differentials). Their regular season was even, and this one is probably a coin flip. Since I don’t have a coin on me, I’ll just take the team without the injury questions.

The pick: RAVENS 2, TITANS 0

Philadelphia (10-6-1) at NY Giants (12-4)

MISUNDERSTOOD EAGLES: Philly’s record and their inconsistent offensive efforts have painted them as mediocre team (see: them finishing a distant third in Monday’s poll). But their overall scoring numbers for the year paint a different picture. They not only out-scored their opponents by 127 points for the season, but managed to out-score them in each of the four quarters. Sure, they’ve hit their rough patches, scoring three points at Washington, seven at Baltimore, and 13 at Cincinnati, but two of those teams have very good defenses, and Philly’s D stepped up to keep two of those games close. Only the Baltimore game was a blowout loss.

The point is, looking at the Eagles as a whole -- as one should for statistical purposes -- they were among the best teams in the league. The Giants were only six points ahead of them in point differential (+133), while Pittsburgh (+124) was just behind, and Carolina (+85) was well behind.

BY THE NUMBERS: The Eagles are 1-5-1 in contests decided by a TD or less.

BY THE NUMBERS 2: Since Donovan McNabb’s benching, he has thrown 10 TD’s and only two INT’s. Meanwhile, the team has gone 5-1.

BY THE NUMBERS 3: CB Asante Samuel’s fourth career playoff pick-6 last week didn’t just give him the NFL postseason record, but also as many playoff TD’s as he has non-playoff TD’s.

ANCIENT HISTORY: The Eagles and Giants split two close games this year -- each road team winning -- Philly out-scoring New York by one, 51-50. Not only did the Eagles come within a 4th and 1 conversion from a shot at sweeping the Giants, but they’re also the only team to beat the Giants at home this season.

BURNING QUESTION: Will Andy Reid's notorious game management problems, on display again last week at Minnesota, be the Achilles heel which does Philly in?

THE VERDICT: First, let’s get a couple of things straight -- 1) During the regular season, the Giants were the best team in football, 2) After their impressive run through the playoffs and Super Bowl last year, they have to be this year’s favorite. That being said, I think this is a matchup they didn’t want. In fact, I think it’s almost a little unfair -- if the Giants are the top seed, shouldn’t they play the worst other team still alive in their conference? The Cards have the worst record, play much worse on the road, and isn’t as hot right now. (Maybe it would be more fair to allow top seeds to have their choice of opponent?) As it is, the Eagles are healthy, hot, and confident coming into New York, and I think this comes down to a late FG. So will they pull the upset? I say no -- because Reid uses all his challenges and/or timeouts and a blatantly missed call just before the two minute warning stands, killing their last gasp drive.

The pick: GIANTS 23, EAGLES 20

LAST WEEK: 3-1

Poll

Of this weekend’s home teams, which is the most likely to lose?

Carolina

5 votes

New York

15 votes

Pittsburgh

23 votes

Tennessee

54 votes

97 votes | Poll has closed

AFTER FURTHER REVIEW...: The Colt Killers

Josh from Hollywood — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 06:50:52 -0000

Welcome to 'After Further Review...', where we watched every minute of every playoff game this weekend and have the couch sores to prove it, where we don't understand why nobody's talking about the fact the Colts got screwed by the refs Saturday night, and where we think the battle of minds between Andy Reid and Brad Childress in the last minute of the first half in Minnesota was a great clinic for coaches -- on what not to do.

We'll get to the rest of the odds, ends and trends around the Wild Card round of the NFL playoffs in a second, but first the moment you've all been waiting for...

SAFETYWATCH '08 '09: Yes folks, you can't keep a good fad down. And safeties are a good fad, maybe the best of fads. Not only did Arizona get one safety when DE Antonio Smith got credit for a sack in the end zone when QB Matt Ryan was ruled "in the grasp", despite getting the ball off -- and completing it -- but they should've had another. DE Bertrand Berry was clearly held by Cards T Sam Baker in the end zone, but the refs missed the call.

There were several other near misses as well -- Donovan McNabb in Minnesota and Philip Rivers against Indy. Mark my words, the safety will strike again. And we'll be there when it does. Stay tuned...

THE PLAYER OF THE WEEK: If you had asked me before this weekend if it was even possible that a punter could be the most important player in a playoff weekend, I would’ve said, "no way", or "get away from me". But it’s not often a punter plays the deciding role in a game -- at least, in a non-Niners game -- and Chargers P Mike Scifres went above and beyond the call of duty Saturday night, putting on a display even Andy Lee would be proud of. Hell, I’ve never seen Lee -- or any punter, for that matter -- have a game like Scifres did against the Colts. And I saw Ray Guy play.

Scifres had six punts -- all pinned Indy’s 20-yard line (the first time in playoff history a punter has had that many), five were at or inside their 10-yard line, three inside the 5. Three of the five inside the 10 were directly converted into Colt punts followed by Charger points -- resulting in all 17 points they scored in regulation. What’s more, Scifres averaged 52.7 yards a punt, third best in playoff history. That’s amazing distance coupled with extremely precise placement. That’s unbeatable.

You could make the argument, he was their best offensive player due to the points he caused, though RB Darren Sproles would have something to say about that (see below). But there’s almost no doubt in my mind that he was their best defensive player. The Colts, like most teams, were conservative in the shadow of their goal line, and the Colts don’t do conservative very well. They weren’t a good running team during the season, and that didn’t change Saturday. But they passed well when they had the ball in good field position. Thanks to Mike Scifres, that wasn’t very often.

THE "DARREN SPROLES X-FACTOR AWARD" GOES TO...: If you didn't seen this going to Chargers RB/KR/PR/Colt Killer Darren Sproles, then you're not paying attention. Sproles went off Saturday night, subbing for starter LaDainian Tomlinson (again), who was injured (again), and killing the Colts (again). The 5'6", 181-pounder had 328 total yards, third-most in NFL playoff history (Ed Podolak KC - 350, Keith Lincoln, SD - 329), and scored two TD's -- including the game-winner in OT. He had 105 yards rushing, 45 receiving, 106 on kick returns, and 72 more on punts.

This isn't the first time Sproles has has helped the Charger beat Indy -- it's the third time in two years. Last year in the regular season, Sproles didn't get a single touch on offense in the Chargers 23-21 win, but still managed to be his team's best scoring weapon. He took back the opening kickoff 89 yards for a TD, and ran back a punt 45 yards for another score less than 10 minutes later as San Diego jumped out to a 23-0 1st half lead. In the playoffs last year at Indy, Sproles only got two touches on offense in the Chargers 28-24 win, but took one of them 56 yards for the go-ahead TD on the last play of the 3rd quarter to help escort the Colts form the post-season.

The only game in the last two years where he didn't do major damage against Indy was earlier this season, when he only got four touches on offense. Sproles is a free agent after the season, but if he stays with San Diego, the Chargers might want to consider using him more against the Colts -- even if Tomlinson is healthy. In fact, the Colts might want to think about signing him just to keep him from ending their seasons every year.

THE MULLIGAN: As a whole, we as a community pretty much screwed the pooch on our poll last week. An overwhelming percentage picked Indy -- myself included (though the numbers are skewed due to some late arrivals picking after Indy lost). In our defense, Vegas saw it the same way. In my defense, I stated my fears right out front about how the Chargers always gave the Colts a hard time. Either way, a whole lot changed over the weekend, so I thought I'd give us all a second chance to make a first impression. Knowing what you know now, who is the best bet of the weekend's winners to make it to the Super Bowl?

Here's my re-re-seeding: 1. Philly, 2. Baltimore, 3. San Diego, 4. Arizona

TOOTING MY OWN HORN: In my Friday column, I characterized the Dolphins/Ravens matchup as a battle of the turnover machine that is Ed Reed against the best team at holding onto the ball. In my prediction, I wrote:

“I think Ed Reed takes part in a turnover, the Ravens D stops the Miami run game, and Baltimore wins a close one.”

What I really meant to say was, “Ed Reed will take part in two picks for the third straight game and take one to the house on a crazy return, the Ravens D stops the Miami run game, and Baltimore wins a blowout.”

Reed had two of Baltimore’s four picks (three within seven passes) off QB Chad Pennington, who only had seven INT’s all year. The Ravens, who led the league in forcing turnovers during the year, forced five from a team which had just 13 (a league record) during the regular season. They also held the Dolphins run game to just 52 yards and a 2.5 average on their way to a 27-9 win.

In my preview of the Eagles/Vikes preview, I said:

"I think Jim Johnson blitzes Tarvaris Jackson into oblivion, and while the Eagles can’t stop Adrian Peterson, they are able to contain him. Westbrook doesn’t get much going on the ground, but McNabb does enough to win."

I'm happy to stick with that. "Play Action" Jackson went 15/35 for 164 yards while being hounded all day, and threw a killer pick-6 to Asante Samuel (giving him four in the postseason, an NFL record) as he was being hit by the rush (and was then smoked by DE Chris Clemons on a block at the goal line). Peterson had two TD's, including a great 40-yarder, but was held to 43 yards on his other 19 carries (a 2.3 average). Westbrook had only 38 yards on 20 carries (a 1.9 average), but caught a back-breaking 71 yard TD on a screen pass from McNabb, who went 23/34 for 300 yards.

THE FALCONS ARE WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE: I really liked the Falcons, and I struggled with the decision to pick against them. I wasn’t surprised when they lost, but I couldn’t help but be a little bummed. I also had this incredible feeling of deja vu. It took me a while, but I finally figured out what it was: This is exactly what I wrote would happen in my first 'Any Given Friday' column way back before Week 12 when I realized how much better the Falcons home stats were:

“If Atlanta makes the playoffs, they’ll likely draw a road game, and a loss”

But the context of that point was that the Falcons are a great young team, and will only learn from this experience. The future looks very bright in Atlanta. Speaking of which...

HELLO, GOODBYE: Matt Ryan came into the league this year with a bang. His first pass went for a 62 yard TD to Michael Jenkins, and he went on to win Rookie of the Year, and led his team to 11 wins. His debut in the playoffs didn't go as smoothly. His first pass was picked off, and he went on to throw another (after only having 11 all year), as his team lost their first round playoff game to Arizona, 30-24.

OBVIOUS ANNOUNCING OF THE WEEK, DAY 1: Jerome Bettis on NBC between the two Saturday games: “I said the Cardinals would need to stop Michael Turner to win, and they did. I’m a psychic!” Yeah, Jerome, and you need to breathe to live. I’m a psychic, too!

OBVIOUS ANNOUNCING OF THE WEEK, DAY 2: FOX’s Pam Oliver characterizing Philly’s mind-set after squeaking into the playoffs last week: “Coming back from the dead has given the Eagles new life.” You don’t say? That’s great, Pam. ‘Cuz what’s the point of coming back from the dead, if you don’t get given new life?

ZEBRAS VS. COLTS: As I wrote in the open, the fact that every close call went to San Diego doesn't seem to be getting much press, and that seems odd to me -- especially in light of HochuliGate. I'm not saying there was anything nefarious going on there, but it was a little odd that the Chargers got two very close calls on measurements down the stretch -- not to mention a couple of ticky-tack calls, while the blatant hold by Chargers FB Jacob Hester on a Sproles' first TD was missed -- and Colts RB Joseph Addai was clearly robbed of a crucial 1st down on a spot in the 3rd quarter when the Colts were trying to re-take the lead.

As Addai went out of bounds after catching a pass, he stretched out, clearly getting past the marker at the San Diego 33-yard line. But there was no referee there to get an accurate spot. It took the side judge forever to get in position and he gave Addai a horrible spot -- back at the 33. Dungy didn't challenge because he'd already lost one and there was almost an entire half left to play. It was the second time that happened -- Chris Chambers pretty clearly was out of bounds on a big Charger 1st down which led to a TD in the 1st half -- and led to a 3rd and 1 which the Colts couldn't convert. Dungy decided to go for it on 4th and 1 rather than attempt a 51-yard FG, Manning threw incomplete, and the Colts missed a chance a score.

THAT’S WHY THEY PLAY THE GAMES: During the regular season, the Colts were the masters of the close game, and the Chargers were the team which couldn’t close out a tight win. Late in the game, NBC showed the following stat:

IN GAMES DECIDED BY EIGHT POINTS OR LESS -- COLTS: 8-1, CHARGERS: 2-7

BEST ANTICIPATORY BROADCASTING: NBC’s late game crew came back from commercial with 3:15 left in the 4th quarter of the Colts/Chargers game with a split-screen shot of Indy DE’s Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney. With the Colts leading 17-14, and San Diego facing a 3rd and 10, Al Michaels discussed how important it would be for the Charger O-line to block Mathis and Freeney, who had three sacks between them (one and two, respectively). At the snap, Mathis beat the tackle, got free around the end, and sacked Rivers again to force a punt.

IS THAT YOUR FINAL ANSWER?: There was more great preparation/anticipation on NBC and Michaels’ part just a few minutes later. At the end of regulation, Al Michaels mentioned that they’d asked Tony Dungy about the overtime rule and if he thought both teams should have a chance to touch the ball. Dungy said he liked the overtime rules as they are. A chuckling Michaels added: “We’ll find out in a couple of minutes if he still likes it the way it is.”

Again, Michaels proved prophetic, as mere moments later Dungy’s Colts lost the toss, kicked off the ball, and never got it back, losing the game on defense while Peyton Manning could only watch helplessly from the sidelines.

STAT O’ THE WEEK: The Colts had their nine game regular season winning streak snapped in their first playoff game. That might seem unlikely, rare even. Not so much. Take a look at the wild card teams which entered the postseason on the longest winning streaks:

Team (Streak) -- Result

2008 Colts (9) -- Lost

1987 Saints (9) -- Lost

2000 Ravens (7) -- Won

1995 Lions (7) -- Lost

1994 Patriots (7) -- Lost

BEST END ZONE CELEBRATION: I don’t normally take requests, but for The Blogfather, I can make an exception. Besides, Antrel Rolle’s celebration in the end zone after his scoop and score on a fumbled exchange from Ryan to Turner to give the Cards the lead early in the 2nd half was just too good. Before his teamates could mob him, Rolle busted out Atlanta’s trademark dance move from the 1998 season -- "The Dirty Bird".

SORE LOSER: Nobody’s happy to lose in the playoffs, especially in OT. But Indy LB Clint Session took the Colts loss a little harder than the rest. Session didn’t play well against the Chargers, repeatedly missing opportunities to tackle Sproles. But it was in OT -- and after -- where he really stepped inot the spotlight, and not in a good way.

On the game’s final drive, as the Chargers got near FG territory, Session stopped Sproles for no gain at the Colts 35, but clearly grabbed and twisted his facemask (when it appeared he could’ve easily let go and still had the tackle). Session was animated and seemed angry, but the call was clearly good. The 15-yard penalty put the ball at the Indy 20, where Session shot into the backfield on the next play to knock Sproles for a 2-yard loss. But on the very next play, Session was mauled by TE Brandon Manumaleuna, who knocked him past a streaking Sproles on his way to the winning score.

Moments later, as NBC’s cameras caught players leaving the field, one came upon Session, who angrily yelled something at the cameraman and made a move toward him. Thankfully, Session thought better of it, and just jogged off.

Poll

Which of the weekend's winners has the best chance to make it to the Super Bowl?

Arizona

2 votes

Baltimore

92 votes

Philly

46 votes

San Diego

70 votes

210 votes | Poll has closed

ANY GIVEN FRIDAY: Re-seeding the Lower 8

Josh from Hollywood — Thu, 01 Jan 2009 20:36:29 -0000

Welcome to ‘Any Given Friday’, where we find it hard to believe Eric Mangini went from “Mangenius” to fired in the span of two years (especially since the last was a winning one), where we can’t remember any playoff week before where all the road teams were favored, and where the NFL postseason gives us tingly feelings in places we don't feel comfortable talking about in public.

If there was ever a week to show us the seedings in the NFL playoffs mean nothing, this is it. With smaller divisions, the odds go up that mediocre teams can win bad divisions (see: Arizona and San Diego), while better teams are wild cards because they happen to reside in the same division as a conference power (see: Indy, Baltimore, and Atlanta). That's how you get a week when three of the four road teams have better records than the teams hosting them (Baltimore and Miami have the same record). The lower eight seeds are as jumbled as ever.

In recent years, we’ve seen lesser seeds which played on wild card weekend go on runs to win the Super Bowl -- Pittsburgh, Indy, and the Giants. The question is, if one of the lower eight seeds goes on such a run, which is the most likely? To find out, I've re-seeded the teams -- not according to who has had the best year, or even who is the best team overall, but who has the best chance to advance in the specific conditions set forth in this year's playoffs. Here’s my list, please feel free to leave your own in the comments section:

1. Indy -- The funny thing is, I’m not even sure they’ll get through Saturday’s matchup -- the Chargers have played the Colts exceptionally tough over the past three seasons (more on this below). In fact, the Colts go against everything you usually look for this time of year -- the ability to run and stop the run. But nine wins in a row is still nine in a row. And they couldn't stop the run before the playoffs in 2006, but got healthy and rounded into shape at the right time of year. They may be doing it again, and just about every key player on the team already has a ring, so they know the way. If RB Joseph Addai and the O-line are back near 100%, and they manage to get through this week, they could be trouble.

2. Philly -- The Eagles are a team nobody wants to play. Defensive coordinator Jim Johnson’s blitz pac kages give play callers nightmares, and when QB Donovan McNabb and RB Brian Westbrook are on their game, they can lay 35+ on somebody. Of course, they’re also capable of struggling to get double-digits. The Eagles are a gambler’s nightmare, mainly because you just don’t know which offense will show up. But their D has allowed a n average of just 10 points over the last quarter of the season. If they keep up their improved play, they’re a good bet to keep advancing.

3. Atlanta -- My pet second team has a lot of the elements which can carry teams in the playoffs -- a dominant running game, a good QB who doesn’t turn the ball over, and a great pass rusher. However, they're also a dome team, with a defense in the bottom third against both the run and pass -- that could bite them down the road. Also, there’s not much of track record of success among rookie QB’s (or rookie head coaches) in the NFL playoffs. Still, they're terrific front-runners with their ability to control the clock with RB Michael Turner, and rush the passer with DE John Abraham.

4. Baltimore -- Anytime you can play defense like the Ravens can, you have a chance. Because of a reliance on the running game with RB's Willis McGahee and LeRon McClain, Flacco hasn’t really been exposed yet, but falling behind on the road in the playoffs has a funny way of doing that. I think before it's all said and done, he'll need to show a little more than he already has. Two reasons they're not higher: 1) They are 0-3 vs. Pittsburgh and Tennessee, two teams between them and the Super Bowl, and 2) See: above note about rookie coaches and QB’s in the playoffs.

5. San Diego -- QB Philip Rivers led the NFL in passer rating (by a lot -- 105.5 to Chad Pennington’s 97.4), threw for over 4,000 yards and 34 TD’s, and carried the team for much of the season. If they continue to allow teams to throw on them at will, he'll need to stay every bit as hot in the playoffs (possibly without TE Antonio Gates). But if RB LaDainian Tomlinson can overcome his injuries and can run again like he ran last week vs. Denver, this team can go deep. Unfortunately, that’s no sure bet.

6. Miami -- Not turning the ball over and playing good defense can go a long way in the playoffs. So can running the ball and stopping the run. Miami does both, so their game should be able to travel pretty well to the northeast. They are every bit the typical, old-school built-for-the-playoffs team the Colts aren't. So why are they #6 while the Colts are #1: They lack the offensive fire power to shoot it out with the big boys. However, as long as they can keep the scores down, they have a shot.

7. Minnesota -- With RB Adrian Peterson and an All-Star defensive line capable of both rushing the passer and stuffing the run, you’d think the Vikings might be a little higher on this list. With Tarvaris Jackson at QB and Brad Childress at head coach, you wouldn’t. It's a tough trade-off, because Peterson is always capable of carrying them on his back if the D does its job, but I just don't see it.

8. Arizona -- As long as Arizona is at home (6-2 record), or another dome (1-0), or on the west coast (2-0), their fine. But put them on the east coast, or in some weather, and they fall part quicker than Dick Vermeil watching 'Brian's Song'.

Atlanta (11-5) at Arizona (9-7)

THE ROOKIE: Since QB Matt Ryan's first pass went for a 62-yard TD to Michael Jenkins, he's taken to the NFL like a 10-year vet. To no one’s surprise, Ryan was named NFL Rookie of the Year by the Associated Press this week. He also set the record for the least INT’s for a rookie QB starting 16 games. The previous record was Rick Mirer with 17. This year, Ryan finished with 11, and fellow rookie Joe Flacco had 12.

THE OLD MAN: As poorly as QB Kurt Warner played at the end of the season -- especially on the road -- his numbers are still very good: 67.1% completions, 4583 yards, 30 TD's/14 INT's, 96.9 rating. Not surprisingly, his home numbers are significantly better: 70.5%, 17 TD's/5 INT's, 105.5 rating. I believe a big reason for this is Warner's seeming allergy to anything less than perfect field conditions. So if Arizona is lucky enough to beat the Falcons and have to head up to New York next weekend, Kurt better pray for good weather. (Don't count him out -- I hear he's tight with the lord.)

RUNNING ON EMPTY: I mentioned earlier that the Falcons are among the worst teams in the league at stopping the run this year. That could and probably will lead to their eventual downfall, but this week that might not be a bad flaw to have -- the Cardinals are the worst running team in all of football. Still, you have to worry about a defense that allowed 408 yards to the Rams in Week 17 (more than St. Louis had gained in their previous 19 games), including 202 on the ground -- the Rams most since Week 16 of the 2004 season, 64 games ago.

Meanwhile, you might say, "Yeah, but the Falcons are the team that can really run, and the Cards D isn't so hot, either." To that, I say, "Shut up! I'm the one writing this column!" Also: Arizona's D actually held nine different teams to less than 90 yards rushing, and bottled up the vaunted Giants running game for just 87 yards on 27 carries. Only Pittsburgh and Dallas held the Giants to fewer yards on the ground during the regular season. Also: Michael Turner's road stats aren't so hot.

ANCIENT HISTORY: This is the first playoff game since 1998, when Jake Plummer was their QB. It’s their first home playoff game since 1947, when their home was Chicago, and their QB was Paul Christman (but you already knew that).

BY THE NUMBERS: Usually the teams you see playing this time of year are ahead in turnover differential, so but not so in this game. Arizona broke even this season, and more shockingly, the Falcons were -3.

BY THE NUMBERS II: The Arizona defense struggles to keep teams out of the red zone, allowing 55 trips this year, behind only KC, Detroit, New Orleans, Denver, Dallas and the Jets -- none of whom made the playoffs. To make matters worse, once teams reached the red zone, the Cards had a hard time keeping them out of the end zone -- they allowed TD's on 63.4% of red zone trips, fifth-worst in the NFL.

THE VERDICT: I’ve made it clear how much I like Atlanta, but I have kind of a bad feeling about this game. It’s all set up -- everybody knows the Falcons are for real, and (cliche alert) nobody respects the Cardinals. But the Cards were the second most prolific passing offense this year, they play well at home, and the Falcons aren't great on the road (4-4). Plus, I just can’t take all four road teams. (Whoops, did I just give away my other picks?)

The pick: CARDINALS 31, FALCONS 27

Indianapolis (12-4) at San Diego (8-8)

INJURY/UNIFORM UPDATE: Both Gates and Tomlinson are sitting out practice for the Chargers while they nurse injuries. LT says he has decided not to push his injury in practice because he did last year and regretted it. Also in that link: The Chargers will wear their alternate powder blue jerseys on Saturday night, after stealing them back from a charity auction they had been donated to. My question: The Chargers only have one set of these jerseys? I would think they’d have the funds to have another set made.

(NOT SO) ANCIENT HISTORY: The Colts and Chargers will face off for the fourth time in the last two seasons -- once in each regular season, and once in each postseason. Both regular season matchups have occurred in San Diego and come down to an Adam Vinateri game-winning FG attempt.

This year, Vinatieri made his kick to win in it 23-20, after Norv Turner mismanaged the clock to give Peyton Manning time to march down the field after the Chargers appeared to force OT with a late FG. Last season, Vinatieri missed a chip shot to give the Bolts the win in the regular season tilt, 23-21, after they picked off six Manning passes and got two kick return TD’s from Darren Sproles. But the most impressive aspect of that game might’ve been the way Manning bounced back from the picks, and brought the Colts back from a 23-0 deficit without his top WR’s or TE Dallas Clark to have an opportunity to win.

And of course, we all remember last year’s playoff matchup, when the Chargers upset the Colts in Indy, 28-24, despite injuries to their best three offensive weapons (Rivers, Tomlinson, and Gates). Rivers still had a big game, but had to leave after re-aggravating his knee injury, and the Bolts got some help from backup QB Billy Volek, and another long TD from Sproles (this time on a 56-yard catch and run) on their way to the win.

BY THE NUMBERS: Using the Pythagorean method of determining team’s projected records, the Chargers were one of the most unlucky teams in the league. They scored 439 points and only allowed 347, but only went 8-8 because of several close losses (two losses by 1 point, one by 2 points, one by 3, and one by 5).

BY THE NUMBERS II: San Diego may have suffered several close losses, and bounced by from an ugly start to become the first 4-8 team ever to make the playoffs, but not all the numbers paint such an optimistic picture. For instance, including their loss to the Colts, the Chargers were 0-5 against playoff teams during the regular season.

THE VERDICT: It’s close call -- games between these teams always seem to be -- and if Tomlinson hadn’t been hurt on Sunday, I might consider the Chargers here. But the Colts are playing well to end the season and I think it’s a good sign Manning feels comfortable enough about his knee to give up scary details about his surgeries in a sit-down with Tom Jackson.

The pick: COLTS 27, CHARGERS 24

Baltimore (11-5) at Miami (11-5)

THE TURNOVER MACHINE ON DEFENSE MEETS THE TURNOVER-PROOF OFFENSE: With all the early talk about DT's Albert Haynesworth and Kris Jenkins making their cases as darkhorse MVP candidates, and the hype surrounding sackmasters Joey Porter and DeMarcus Ware, in my opinion it was a DB who ended the year playing the best defense in the league. Noted ballhawk S Ed Reed notched two INT's Sunday to lead the NFL with nine. He also recovered two fumbles, giving him four for the season. Reed doesn't have eye-popping sack or tackle numbers, so he may not win any awards this season (though he did win the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year in 2004), but the Ravens rely heavily on their D, and that D depends heavily on Reed's big play abilities.

This week, he’ll go up against the team that turned the ball over less than any team ever, and had a +17 turnover margin (The Ravens had a +13). QB Chad Pennington had only seven INT’s all year, but one was a pick-6 to Baltimore’s Terrell Suggs in the team’s first matchup. For his efforts, Pennington was named Comeback Player of the Year for the second time in three years (Is that a good thing, or a bad thing?)

PREVIOUS MEETING: In Week 7, Baltimore beat the Dolphins in Miami, 27-13 on the strength of a stout run defense (71 yards allowed) and RB Willis McGahee’s 105 yards on the ground. On the bright side for Miami, Pennington threw for 295 yards.

ANCIENT HISTORY: The last playoff game Miami played was, coincidentally enough, also at home vs. Baltimore in 2001. The Ravens, who were defending champs at the time, won behind Elvis Grbac, 24-17 over the Jay Fiedler-led Dolphins.

BY THE NUMBERS: Using the Pythagorean, the 1-15 Dolphins were actually lucky last year. They scored 267 and allowed 437, which, while ugly, should've netted them more than one win. St. Louis, for instance, scored fewer points and allowed more, but had three wins. Atlanta also had similar numbers and still managed to win four games. Miami lost by exactly three points six times in '07, including three games against playoff foes -- Pittsburgh, Washington, and eventual world champ, New York. This year, Miami's luck has changed 180 degrees: They were the luckiest team in the league this year by Pythagorean, scoring 345, allowing 317, yet still going 11-5.

THE VERDICT: I can’t believe I’m taking a rookie QB on the road in the playoffs over a team which turns the ball over less than any team ever, but I am. I must be crazy. But I think Ed Reed takes part in a turnover, the Ravens D stops the Miami run game, and Baltimore wins a close one.

The pick: RAVENS 20, DOLPHINS 17

Philadelphia (9-6-1) at Minnesota (10-6)

GOOD PHILLY, BAD PHILLY: The Eagles are 6-2 at home and 3-4-1 on the road, including stinkers at Washington (3 points), Cincy (13 points in five quarters), and Baltimore (7 points). Considering they’ll be on the road throughout the playoffs, that could be a problem.

UNHAPPY CAMPERS: Vikes fans aren’t particularly found of head coach Brad Childress. There, they believe in "Minnesota Nice", and Childress is so prickly, and tight-lipped and sour with the media, he make Bill Belichick look like Steve Mariucci. Or maybe it’s just because of his poor clock management. Last week at home against the Giants, he almost cost them that division-winning FG when he mismanaged the final minute, turning a 1st down at the Giant 30 with :38 left into a 50-yard FG with no time remaining.

INJURY UPDATE: Vikings RB Adrian Peterson says his ankle feels “pretty good” and that he’s been nursing the injury for three weeks now. Peterson , who led the NFL with 1,760 rushing yards, and was second to only Chicago’s Matt Forte with 49% of his team’s total offense.

ANCIENT HISTORY: This is Minnesota’s first playoff game since they lost at the Super Bowl-bound Eagles in the divisional round in 2004.

BY THE NUMBERS: With two stout run defenses on display, and two QB’s who aren’t known for handling the rush particularly well, this game could come down to who can best rush the passer. Both teams showed they’re capable during the regular season -- Philly was third in the NFL in sacks with 48, Minnesota was fourth in the league.

BY THE NUMBERS II: If Minnesota is going to win, they’ll likely need to get a big play in the passing game. WR Bernard Berrian is their best candidate for such a play -- Berrian was the league leader in YPR among players with 800+ receiving yards (20.1).

THE VERDICT: I think Jim Johnson blitzes Tarvaris Jackson into oblivion, and while the Eagles can’t stop Adrian Peterson, they are able to contain him. Westbrook doesn’t get much going on the ground, but McNabb does enough to win.

The pick: EAGLES 24, VIKINGS 17

LAST WEEK: 12-4

Poll

Which team playing this weekend has the best chance of making a Super Bowl run?

Indy

48 votes

San Diego

8 votes

Arizona

1 votes

Atlanta

3 votes

Miami

2 votes

Baltimore

16 votes

Philly

20 votes

Minnesota

2 votes

100 votes | Poll has closed