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JpR-dc

  • joined Feb 05, 2013
  • last login Apr 18, 2014
  • posts 32
  • comments 257
User Blog
FanPost

A short note on the Burns "experiment": what about his 2010-2012 numbers?

Let me open by stating that I love Brent Burns as a forward. Great style of play and very effective. I absolutely buy Neutral’s argument that the "experiment" was a success. However, I think two...

FanPost

A closer look at the value of "scoring chances" (semi-response to Elvis)

There's a million things about this game and this team that I'd love to unpack, but earlier today I posted a question in the comments of Scoring Chances: Game 30, and then Elvis added his own set...

FanPost

A quick hit on "good" shot-blocking teams

There was a good comment earlier saying something to the effect of: teams that block a lot of shots aren't necessarily good shot-blocking teams. This made me get on the data horse and gather up...

FanPost

How often do we see Stuart-Hannan?

I wanted to put up some data to provide context to the possibility of a long-term Stuart-Hannan pairing. Is this just a fling or something special? Man, I don't think it's a great idea (and many...

FanPost

Do puck possession teams lag in hitting (and does it appear to matter)?

Recently, there has been a good amount of talk about the Toronto Maple Leafs with regard to some emerging statistical tools. One article (e.g. here) went so far to call the team’s season a...

FanPost

Team > Code (a different way to read all this stuff re: Hertl's 4th goal)

I was going to write something in the comments section, but it got way too long. I did not watch the Sharks vs NYR game live, so you can imagine my spit-take when reading the Extra Skater box score...

FanPost

From the anatomy of shot suppression to a 2x2 response matrix

This is a follow-up on the phenomenon of "shot suppression". Weak stomach? Turn away. This might get a little gory. I started with a precision cut and ended up with splattered guts everywhere. The...

FanPost

Total tangent: does greater Corsi For lead to fewer Corsi against (i.e. shot suppression)?

It's getting close. Oh man, it's getting close. It's so close I went to watch a Capitals-Flyers rookie game where Peter Laviolette was having a good look at his guys. Saw Paul Holmgren in his suit....

FanPost

Forward pairings 2012-2013 (plus Tyler Kennedy's usage chart)

There is nothing like line speculation to get people excited for hockey. I started a forward pairing sheet of CF% (Corsi For %) when the season ended (via stats.hockeyanalysis.com), and I can't...

FanPost

I still can't quit thinking about goalies

In a comment elsewhere, I tossed out the idea of a graph of game-to-game (individual game) SV% of all goalies just to show how the distribution was quite similar; i.e. to paraphrase holidaypark:...

FanPost

NHL.com's use of "shot attempts" (2007-2012)

Something a little bit different. I did the initial data gather on this earlier in the month, but the delay has made for good timing given the recent use of "Corsi" in the Boston Globe (and the...

FanPost

Counting Zone Entries: so, what's that like?

(NB: I was going to post this much earlier, but even a few weeks late, I think there's enough here worth sharing.) There is some emerging statistical work being on zone entries (e.g. the MIT Sloan...

FanPost

Temporary end to the goalie conversation

This is an attempt to leave behind the question of goalie variation (for now!). Some points: 1) Man, I need to learn more before I go further. Pretty clear.2) In the meantime, I did produce goalie...

FanPost

Come and get your random samples! (just a slice of SV% deviation data)

Ok. I did some stuff and now I'm going to attempt to make a coherent claim out of some of it. Pointing out obvious and maybe not so obvious mistakes: more than welcome. The question. How much...

FanPost

A couple ideas on SV% variation (response to holiday park)

Let me start by saying that the idea of variation in SV% IS an interesting topic to explore. Holiday park has started this, so let's keep it going. I'm going to have a quick stab at "Evaluating...

FanPost

Need a distraction? (wtf Game 2) Come follow.

It is probably true that anything to do with numbers is the last thing most people will want to read after the first two games of this series. It might go something like this: A: Man, we...

FanPost

Unpacking score effects (i.e. dangitquick)

Preface: The notion of "score effects" comes into the conversation when we see one team outshooting another by a significant margin, yet losing. Say a 2-0 loss where the losing team outshoots...

FanPost

An exercise to flatten fluctuations in optimism: historical cases of below-average goalie performance, yet winning the Cup

Just finished watching ANA-DET and got caught up in thinking about two things that have been topics of discussion here and elsewhere recently. The first is goalie performance in the playoffs and...

FanPost

Sharks vs. Sharks: A glance at the numbers (and a case for Niemi-inspired optimism)

Something I did during the lockout was start to read (and catch up on) all the work statistical work that was being done on hockey. There's way more out there than I had initially thought. Like...

Fenwick and Playoffs

I missed this. Of interest to ppl wanting to know association b/w Fenwick and Playoffs.

FanPost

Response to PDOfrock: Comparing streaks (test case of shots in sets of 7)

Recent Fanpost on compiled shot data from the homestand by PDOfrock led me to think about the idea of comparing compiled shot data. What looks the same and different? Is there value in comparing...

FanPost

Douglas Murray: regardez le nombres

If there's one thing many people have agreed on it's that Douglas Murray 2012-2013 is killing our perception of Douglas Murray prior to 2012-2013. (We can let Douglas Murray 2011-2012 have his...

FanPost

For each FenwickClose% increase/decrease = what increase/decrease in Fenwick+?

We need some distractions. Let’s get distracted for a minute... The Sharks Fenwick numbers have taken a nose dive since around game 17, as noted here. But, what does FenwickClose% mean...

Shot location search tool (yup)

What the link title says... shots, goals, and, location. Don't know if you guys heard of it, but it was featured in a Japers article. I hadn't seen it until today.

FanPost

Distractions: measuring individual player penalty-kill talent (UPDATED to suck less)

… so I know Zus and Burish have been getting flak for their general inability to pick up points (combined 4 points in 50 games played... just in case you had forgotten, player points is like real...

Link on NHL Dmen with TOI and Caphit variables

Per a Japers Fanpost. If you want the Excel spreadsheet, which has the data he compiled, it's in the comments. Might of interest in terms of thinking about Dmen and value.

FanPost

Will SJ 12-13 be NJ 07-08 (99 points) or NJ 10-11 (81 points)? (a response to ievans)

ievans made a great suggestion in one of the comment threads: "The frustration on my part here is that we’ll watch the PDO for, say, the Kings suffer for most of the year, then...

Game theory Fanpost over at Japers

A great Fanpost on dump-ins using game theory. So good I had to comment on it. ... Since I live in DC, I also watch Caps and read JP... it happens.

FanPost

Comparing the underlying numbers between the current Tampa Bay and San Jose losing streaks, or: Ok, dude, when do we press the panic button?

(Note: This was written before TB's game vs. FLA.)Oh man. Was sitting around last night. Doing a lot of sitting. Sittin’ and starin’. Starin’ at NHL standings. . Even though the S...

FanPost

Awcrapgottooinvolved: Corsi+/scoring+ ratio and a possibly stupid prediction

A couple ideas from the recent posts (Mike Chen, Preds numbers) have spurred some thoughts. (I started writing two comments and then decided oh god sunk costs so heavy do fan post.) One of the...

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