The thing that I have yet to hear mentioned through these early stages of Linsanity is that he is currently playing on a league minimum contract with no guarantee for next season.

If he keeps up his play, and the situation isn't exactly prime when Melo comes back, it seems likely that Lin could play elsewhere next season. It's too early to start discussing how much money he'll command, or what the Magic's roster/payroll will look like by the end of this season.

But unless things work out swimmingly in New York when Melo returns, Lin could be up for grabs at the end of this season.

And whether or not Dwight stays home, the Magic should do whatever they can to bring Lin aboard.

Seems like the people here are divided between believing Dwight Howard is open to staying in Orlando, and believing his mind is well made up, that he is essentially gone already. I fall into the latter category. There is too much smoke (or, in my opinion, fire) to suggest he's quit on Orlando.

But for those who disagree, I ask: are you confident enough to risk letting him walk away for nothing, just like Shaq did fifteen years ago? Because if the Magic don't trade Howard before the trade deadline, the risk of this happening is overwhelming.

Here are some things to consider.

1) Howard has no incentive to sign an extension. Even if he had every intention of staying in Orlando, he stands to make considerably more money by signing a new contract after the season. Thus, there would be no guarantee, even if he were adamant in the press and with the Magic brass about returning. The Magic would still assume considerable risk.

2) Even if you believe Howard does mean it when he says he wants to stay in Orlando, it doesn't change the fact that his behavior and rhetoric has been all over the place. If Howard isn't traded right away, and the Magic start winning games, perhaps a lot of games, it will be easy for Magic fans (myself included) to get swept up in the momentum. I wouldn't rule out Howard getting swept up in it too. Orlando may not be favored to win the East, but by the trade deadline it is entirely possible that we will be #1 in the conference.

So, best case scenario by the trade deadline, Howard wouldn't have signed an extension and the Magic could be on fire going into the post season.

Here's the thing.

What happens if we don't win a Championship? It's extremely unlikely with this team, as assembled. And don't kid yourselves, bringing in Andre Iguodala or Gerald Wallace or Chauncey Billups does not immediately propel us into contender status.

So then, how far do we have to go to convince Howard? Lose the Finals in seven games? What about six? What if we lose the Conference Finals in seven hard fought games? Or what if we lose in six to a team that's clearly superior, like we did to the Celtics in 2010?

Or what if we lose inexplicably in the first or second round to a clearly inferior team, all over again?

There are very few scenarios, arguably only one, in which all that regular season momentum isn't gone in the blink of an eye.

And then Howard can simply walk, just like Shaq.

Are you willing to take this risk? Because I seriously doubt Alex Martins is. Losing two Hall of Fame centers is tragic, but losing both of them for nothing is borderline irredeemable. And if the Magic don't trade Howard before the deadline, that's the barrel they'll be staring down.

Howard's story seems to change daily. So it's really not a question of whether or not Howard "could" be convinced to stay, or "how" he could be convinced. But when he's convinced. And for how long. Because if the Magic choose not to trade him, and he isn't convinced when the season comes to a close, he'll be gone.

To be clear: I'm not saying the Magic should rush into a trade. Dwight Howard playing the 2012 All Star Game wearing another team's uniform would be catastrophic for Orlando's fan base.

But I am saying fans should try to stay realistic about Howard's future in Orlando, especially if the Magic jump out to a fast start in the regular season.

The past week has been perhaps the greatest emotional roller coaster in Orlando Magic franchise history. Leading with former CEO Bob Vander Weide's late night phone call to Dwight Howard, and subsequent resignation, the remainder of the week pingponged between rumors that Howard requested a trade, or that Howard wanted to stay in Orlando.

Then on Saturday, Howard went before the press to admit that both are true. He'd love to stay in Orlando, but he wants to move on.

How can this be, you might ask? Perhaps it has to do with Howard's later admission that he has "no relationship" with Magic GM Otis Smith. Or that he feels the franchise hasn't included him at all when making major personnel decisions.

Today, Howard again alluded to Smith's past decisions by saying that you're either "Bar-B-Que" or "Mildew" and he wants to be Bar-B-Que.

If anything resembled mildew, it was the Magic losing in six games to the Atlanta Hawks. A playoff exit that came only months after Smith made two "blockbuster" trades, intending to provide a boost to Orlando's stagnant offense.

Stagnation really seems to be the key word. I think Howard feels like the Magic have been stagnating since their 2009 NBA Finals run.

And I couldn't agree more. I also agree that Otis Smith has a lot to do with it.

Here's why.

Otis Smith vs. Stan Van Gundy

I've had a sense since the failed '09 Finals appearance that Otis Smith and Stan Van Gundy simply do not agree on what makes a great basketball team. Unfortunately I can't find anything concrete on the web, but I seem to recall some conflict between them over SVG's 4 out/1 in offense, which emphasized Howard drawing double teams inside, then kicking the ball out to the perimeter for an open 3.

Many of the players Otis Smith has brought in since then haven't necessarily fit in with SVG's system. Two of the biggest acquisitions for the 2010 season, Brandon Bass and Vince Carter, were far better suited to a traditional offense.

Since then the decline has only continued, as everyone well knows. Smith has made several FA acquisitions and trades, including the "blockbuster" trades last winter, none of which have improved our team.

Again, I'm not sure what the relationship is between SVG and Otis. But I did find it pretty telling when SVG voiced his frustration during the Atlanta series at "not having a Jamal Crawford" type player.

As Dwight has expressed frustration with Otis Smith at not listening to him about personnel, I wonder if SVG receives the same treatment.

Otis Smith vs. Dwight Howard

In addition to moving away from SVG's signature offense, Otis Smith simply broke up the 2009 finals team, a move which apparently hurt Dwight a lot. The Magic lost Courtney Lee in the trade, a promising young talent with whom Howard had built a strong friendship.

That really seems to be a big part of the problem. Howard keeps losing his buddies.

Not to delve too much deeper into arm chair psychology, but from what I've seen over the past year or so, I think the problem is simply this: Dwight doesn't trust Otis. He doesn't trust him to build an effective team around him, and doesn't trust him not to ship his buddies across the country without so much as a heads up.

If the Magic were winning, Dwight would probably suck it up and accept that Otis knows what he's doing. But since 2009, the Magic have steadily gotten worse, and Howard has seen more and more of his buddies shipped off.

Meanwhile, the Magic GM seems pretty non-plussed about the whole thing, certainly about Howard's feelings. And this approach might work with a guy like Lebron James. But, as far as I can tell, Dwight Howard is not at all like Lebron James. He's a genuine guy with a big heart.

He may not know what it takes to build a championship team, and may suggest some flawed personnel moves, but that really doesn't seem to be the issue. The issue seems to be relationship. Howard has needs, apparently emotional needs, which are not being met. And Otis Smith seems unwilling to meet them, even if it means Howard leaves Orlando.

Bottom Line

You've got one of, if not the winningest head coach in the NBA over the past four years, and arguably the best player in the NBA, frustrated with a GM whose track record since 2009 is a train wreck.

And, let's be honest, his entire track record as GM has not been impressive.

I'm increasingly convinced the Magic's success in 2009 stemmed from Stan Van Gundy coaching the way he wanted to, and Dwight Howard feeling confident enough to really step into a leadership role, as part of a team he loved.

In fact, my money says the last big trade of 2009, that brought Rafer Alston to the Magic, was all Stan Van Gundy. I think Otis went to SVG and said, what and/or who do you need? And then he went out and got him.

After that, I think Otis felt ready to start tinkering. He was going into his third year as GM, the Magic were on the cusp of a Championship. It was time for Otis Smith to shine. To build the team HE wanted, the team HE felt could beat the Lakers. And so he tinkered without regard for Van Gundy's system, or Howard's feelings.

Otis Smith took a championship-caliber Orlando Magic team and ran it into the ground.

The change in Howard's demeanor after meeting with Alex Martins could have to do with a sense that things might be different going forward. Fresh blood. I know Martins is an impressive guy who exudes confidence and optimism. The kind of guy Howard is likely to respond to.

Hard to believe a change-up at GM wouldn't build on these results.

Martins needs to bring in someone new, and someone proven. Someone who can build the relationship with Howard that Otis couldn't, or wouldn't, and give him confidence that the Magic are headed in a new, far better direction: from mildew to bar-b-que.

If this is true, it will reveal a whole lot about Dwight Howard's character, and perhaps what really happened in the discussions between Howard and Magic GM Otis Smith on Monday. It could explain some of Smith's posturing during the Vander Weide press conference, particularly with regard to not placating to Howard's desires.

I also can't help but think about how Smith and new Magic CEO Alex Martins both emphasized that Howard's potential departure would be entirely "on him", rather than the Magic's decision.

Looking back, could they have known what was coming? Could all the press about Howard wanting to stay, wanting to finish his career in Orlando and just wanting help, could it all have been an effort to manipulate him in the press? To make him look like an even bigger traitor than Lebron in 2010?

Coming on the heels of Vander Weide's alleged "drunk dial" and subsequent retirement, perhaps the pieces are falling into place at last. Bob probably didn't have the energy to stare down the barrel of a rebuilding decade. But Martins may have to.

This is all conjecture, sure, but Broussard is right more often than I think most Magic fans want to admit. He was the first to report that Lebron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh would be teaming up in Miami.

Granted, as out-of-control as this NBA pre-season has been, even if Broussard is correct it doesn't necessarily mean Howard will be traded to New Jersey.

But I'm nonetheless concerned. If Dwight Howard does in fact request a trade, it will mean either he has misrepresented himself to the Orlando Magic front office, or that the Orlando Magic front office has misrepresented itself to the fans, or both.

Coming literally hours after the Chris Paul to LA Lakers trade fell through, the implications are staggering. It would likely mean that Howard had every intention of joining Paul in LA and, in lieu of this, will opt to join Williams in New Jersey. Either way, he would have had no intention of staying in Orlando.

According to Broussard, the Nets are also pursuing Nene "in case the Howard deals fall through." But if anything this only reinforces the argument that Howard is in fact looking to leave Orlando, despite what we've all been told.

Hopefully there is no fire, but the smoke is certainly beginning to rise.

FSU's offensive line has taken a lot of criticism this season, and most of it has been deserved. Though a number of injuries put the team in a bind, it also reminded us of the recruiting whiffs of 2009 and 2010, and the hole they've put us in.

Enter the 2011 OL class.

FSU arguably put together the best OL class in the nation last year. Unfortunately, most OL prospects aren't remotely ready to contribute as freshmen, and require years of development before they can make an impact. Ideally, they get these years before they even see the field.

But that's not where we're at. We're starting a seventeen year old.

As much as it upsets me to realize Bobby Hart will be turning 20 years old as a senior, and to think about what he could've done in the long run with a RS season under his belt, the situation is what it is.

Going into 2012, FSU will lose: Zebrie Sanders, David Spurlock, and possibly Andrew Datko (either to graduation or injury, or both.)

We're left with:

Senior: Jacob Fahrenkrug

Juniors: Bryan Stork, Henry Orelus, Garrett Faircloth

Sophomores: Bobby Hart, Dan Foose

And then I'm unclear about who got a RS but, either RS Fr or Soph: Josue Matias, Ruben Carter, Sterling Lovelady, Trey Pettis, Austin Barron

Here are the things I'd like to get some discussion on:

1) Will Jacob Fahrenkrug turn the corner as a senior? He has all the physical gifts to be playing on Sunday, and be a dominant college lineman. He has improved steadily this season, but has yet to live up to the hype. What can we expect from him going forward?

2) Will we get any quality play out of Stork, Orelus and Faircloth?  It seems like all three of them haven't really been more than servicable, and Orelus/Faircloth have been so injury prone. I'm not convinced they'll be able to stay healthy long enough to make an impact, much less hold off the talented youngsters.

3) Who will step up from the 2010/2011 classes? I'm really curious to see if we'll get anything out of Dan Foose. He's a physical specimen, 6'6" 310, but I haven't heard one word about him since NSD 2010. But then there are guys like Matias, Jackson, Carter, Pettis, Lovelady...there's a lot of talent there.

Whose name will we be hearing this spring, and who could we see starting come fall? Does anybody have any way-too-early predictions for who the starting 5 will be?

I've been watching FSU football for as long as I can remember, which puts my memories somewhere in the general area of the 1993 National Championship.

Never in my life have I seen worse officiating in a college football game than I did tonight in the FSU vs. Miami contest.

MIami's last drive, in which they received back-to-back roughing the passer calls, not to mention Nigel Bradham's ejection on a perfectly legal tackle...I mean...I have few, of any, words to express myself.

There were many other ridiculous calls, including Terrence Brooks' "roughing the kicker" call on the punt, which was even more blatant than Clemson's.

I'm hoping Bud et al addresses all of the calls in their tape review, but man...I had to vent.

The ejection of Nigel Bradham really, really upset me. But those two TDs that were called back early in the game...I was having a hard time not blacking out from anger.

The Miami WR caught it and made a football move, then had the ball jarred loose. Recovered by Joyner for a TD. The end. 

As for the punt recovered by FSU (after Miami touched it) for a TD, I mean...I've been watching football, and playing Madden/NCAA for as long as I can remember. Once the ball is touched it is a live ball, period. Telvin Smith recovered it and ran it back for a touchdown. The end. Period. End of story.

I was wrong here. How about Karlos Williams' return that was called back on a hold against James Wilder? 

I don't know if Nevin Shapiro was writing checks from behind bars, or what. And of course the officiating this season has been among the worst in ACC history, as far as FSU is concerned. But this game really hurt. This game had some of the worst, most egregious calls I have ever seen.

A win is a win, yes. And after some of the calls/no calls we've seen from the ACC this season, it's far too much to hope they'll hold these officials accountable. But as FSU fans we have to acknowledge when things are clearly working against us, especially the officials.

Lastly, congratulations to Nigel Bradham for one of the best, nastiest, most legal tackles I've seen all year. Well done, sir. 

Edited now that I better understand the rules.

Just got my latest issue of Esquire last night and read a pretty startling interview with Dwight Howard. He sat down with Scott Raab and discussed many things, including his future in Orlando.

This portion of the interview was, to me, the most heartbreaking:

 

SR: Do you think that the drive to represent, on an iconic level, will be a factor in your free agency? Do you see yourself in a much larger market?

DH: There's more you can do in a bigger place. I'm stuck in a tough position because I feel like right now, where I'm at, I've done so much. And I just don't know what else I can do. I can't live for everybody else. I don't know what decision I'm gonna make as of right now. It's been crazy. Everybody wants me to come here, come play here, come to our team, do this. It's a great feeling, though, to be wanted.

SR: You're gone. I can feel it.

DH: The toughest part for me is the city — the people. They've got burgers named after me in Orlando, they've got a Web site saying, "Please stay." I love the people in the city. I've literally sat on the bench with a towel on my head crying, because I feel the passion in the stands. I just think about what's going to be best for what I want to accomplish in my life. And I don't want that door to close on me, wherever that door is. I don't want it to close.

SR: Just don't do it as an hour-long ESPN special. Please.

DH: That's not me.

Assuming the 2012 season is lost, and he has no intention of staying in Orlando, it makes sense that Howard would start looking to the future now. And it seems his future is in a bigger market. All this talk about doors closing, and not knowing what else he can do, says a lot about his opinion of our city and our team. It also says a lot about the future of our city and our team.

Any thoughts on this? I apologize if it has been covered elsewhere, but I think it's pretty relevant to tomorrow.

I'm particularly surprised by Shaw not being simply "Out". A week after a concussion it seems like he'd be held out as a precaution, even if he seemed fine.

Was it officially ruled a concussion? Or was he just KO'd temporarily, with a few concussion-like symptoms?

I also didn't expect Greg Reid to be on this list. I guess all the talk about EJ overshadowed the rest.

Has Bert Reed been practicing in full pads, running routes, etc? How likely is it we'll see him out there?

At this point I believe EJ is a legitimate GTD. If he's feeling really good tomorrow afternoon, I imagine it'll be hard for Jimbo to keep him on the sidelines. Maybe he starts Trickett but has Manuel ready to go if things start to decline?

Pretty anxious to see how this all plays out. But, man, if Shaw and Reed see the field I'll feel a whole lot better.

 

After barely running the football against ULM and Charleston Southern I was convinced it was gamesmanship from Jimbo Fisher, protecting our run schemes from Oklahoma's coaching staff. Surely we're holding back, protecting our looks (and our running backs) to unload on Oklahoma.

Except that, well, we didn't run tonight either. 26 carries total, half of which belonged to scrambling EJ and running-for-his-life Clint Trickett.

So what gives here? 

I realize Fahrenkrug and Stork are relatively new and need time to adjust. But now we've played two cupcakes and an elite team and haven't successfully run the football against any of them. It seems pretty obvious there is a problem.

The young receiver corps is looking outstanding, and the line did a pretty great job tonight (all things considered) protecting EJ and Clint in the pass game. Early on we did a good job using the tight ends, too.

But the run...I mean...why can't we run?

Watching Wisconsin last night, I was floored (pancaked, if you will) by the dominant play of their offensive line. Before the snap, their advantage was obvious -- they towered over the smaller, skinnier UNLV defense. And as soon as Wilson took the ball, there were holes you could've driven a [insert large vehicle] through for their backs to explode through.

Which, of course, they did.

FSU's line has been under the tutelage of Rick Trickett for years, and there has been obvious growth in terms of footwork, flexibility, decision-making, etc.

But I'm looking for another kind of growth.

This is year two of the Vic Viloria Era, the Jimbo Fisher "Grown Ass Men" era. Watching Wisconsin it was so obvious to me that he's right: games are won and lost up front. Despite some major losses on the o-line (Hudson, McMahon) we still have some veteran beasts (Datko, Sanders) and, as far as I can tell, everyone (them included) has grown physically.

They're becoming Grown Ass Men. And I'm wondering if tomorrow, and throughout the year, we'll see the rewards of this. Do we expect our line to bully defenses more this year than last, and open up wider holes for our stable of running backs to run through? Extended protection for EJ Manuel to run through his progression, or take off and pick up an extra thirty yards?

I'm also curious what we'll see out of our rotation of monsters at defensive tackle, and our big boys coming off the end. I guess I've never really paid attention to the Xs and Os of football before, in particular the essential value of success up front.

But last night, the entire defensive burden was placed on UNLV's linebackers and, more often than not, secondary. Because their d-line was getting swallowed on every snap. I mean, you couldn't even see them anymore. Nothing but red jerseys and huge chunks of vacant field.

Obviously this kind of mismatch is not the norm. But in years past, FSU has struggled up front in these kinds of games.

We know Brandon Jenkins and Bjoern Werner are monsters. We know our tackle rotation is almost embarrassing to talk about. But will this translate on the field? Are we going to be suffocating offenses, stuffing runs in the backfield, getting more than just coverage sacks?

Are we going to intimidate up front again?

I'm curious to see what kind of leap we make on our respective lines in year 2 under Jimbo. Against a far inferior opponent like UL-M, I think we will get some indication.

And I'm hoping it isn't unlike what I saw last night from Wisconsin.

I was curious to see how he's performing, and so far McNabb and Webb are the only Minnesota QBs to play. Thought the debate over QB1 revolved around McNabb and Ponder, not this Webb character.

Is Ponder still rehabbing? What's the deal??

At least it's nice to see Lorenzo Booker is getting some snaps. Maybe he'll finally earn a quality spot behind Purple Jesus.

I need seven more words to publish.

There.

I'm assuming a lot of you guys play NCAA Football 2012, and I'm wondering if any of you have experienced the same issue I've been having. Which is this: occasionally, seemingly without cause or reason, a team I should beat easily gives me obscene competition.

Right now I've had to restart the game against Duke about five times. Because, I'm sorry, their C+ defense should not be giving me the kind of trouble they are. Not to mention their offense is playing better than Oklahoma did. 

My last attempt against Duke, they sacked EJ six times. He threw 3 INTs, most of which were inexplicably off course, or read by the safeties as though God Himself were directing them (i.e. they'll be covering one receiver and magically drift off before I've even made the throw to cover my targeted receiver).

I'm playing on All-American difficulty, which is basically what I'm stuck with. In Heisman I get annihilated, or in Varsity I annihilate. But, I'm sorry, if I was able to basically shut down Oklahoma and win 50-28, I should not be eeking out a win against Duke, taking six sacks and throwing three picks. 

Anyway. NCAA Football has always gotten me through the July/August gap until kickoff, and I love it this year as much as I have for the past ten. But this is getting on my nerves, severely.

I also wondered if any of you have noticed that sometimes, regardless of opponent, you can pretty much spot a scoring drive. They'll magically complete every pass, or fight for that extra yard to get a first down. Usually on the first or second play I can tell that the CPU is going to score no matter what I do. This was true against UL-Monroe as much as it was against Oklahoma.

Is there anyone here (Evan?) with a decent grip on the Magic's financial situation? I'm not talking about salary, but about how much revenue the team is generating as a whole.

The Magic are not afraid to spend money. Maintaining one of the fattest payrolls in the league and a brand new state-of-the-art arena suggest there is plenty to go around. But then, when I remember how many teams are hemmorhaging money, and how revenue has declined steadily across the league since 2008, it gives me pause.

Are the Magic simply not effected? Did the 2009 Finals, and opening the Amway Center soon thereafter, do enough to keep fans spending?

I've only been to one game at the new arena, a November match-up against Cleveland, and was stuck up in the peasant-level. And even though I was too busy enjoying the game to notice, I'm pretty sure all of the luxury suites were full because the Amway Center was brand new.

But I recall reading or hearing something, even just a few months later, that said the money was drying up. Suites were empty on game night. Concession and merchandise sales were down. And so on.

And it makes me wonder: Are the Magic in the black?

The impending lockout should be pretty interesting. It'll be guys like Gilbert Arenas who force the players union to fold. He can't keep buying third world children to throw into his shark tank if there's no income.

I hesitantly admit that, after the Gilbert Arenas trade, I sloppily prophesied that Orlando would end up losing Dwight Howard and the Magic franchise over it. Sounds pretty nuts, I know.

However...

The Magic's financial viability is the main factor. Without Dwight Howard (for the sake of avoiding a comments section riddled with trade/free agency talk, I'm going to suggest that in this hypothetical, we lose Dwight Howard because he pulls a Dave Chappelle, folds under scrutiny and runs off to Africa to run free with the antelope) and any immediate big name acquisitions, the Magic are in serious trouble, are they not?

We talk about using the Amnesty Clause everyone is praying and sacrificing goats for on Gilbert. But even if we do this, he still gets paid. Big time. And we still need to go out and get new players. And they are going to cost money.

There's just so much money to consider!

And if Dwight goes to run with the antelope, and the Magic still have to spend $20+ million a year to pay off Gilbert Arenas, well...

We don't have Penny Hardaway this time. There will be little for fans to get excited about, other than potential lottery picks, possibly for years.

And as the sheen continues to wear off of the Amway Center, I seriously doubt Orlando's best and brightest are going to fork over big bucks to be seen at Magic games. Why bother?

So where is the money going to come from?

Are there not sizeable debt obligations tied to the Amway Center? If the Magic take a big financial dive in the coming seasons, could there not be serious consequences?

I don't mean this as a Dooms Day post. Really, I just wanted to stir up some conversation about the Magic's financial situation because, frankly, the numbers are driving the league right now. A lot of teams are sucking serious air, and even though the Magic don't seem to be among them, it's unclear where they stand.

And I'm growing very curious.

There has been a lot of trade talk here, attempts to improve the Magic's immediate hopes by way of an acquisition. But I think the hard truth is that this simply will not happen. We do not have the trade assets necessary, period.

That said, should Otis Smith not focus his attention entirely on the summer of 2012? 

Magic fans need to keep in mind that the first round match-up against Atlanta was arguably the least favorable for Orlando in the entire conference. Including Miami. But this doesn't mean the Magic are a bad team, or even out of the conversation to win the Eastern Conference again next season.

Hedo Turkoglu should play better. Same for Gilbert Arenas, Chris Duhon and Quentin Richardson. Even moderate improvements from the latter three would help the Magic a lot.

JJ Redick likely will not tear his abdomen again.

Depending on the summer he has, Daniel Orton may be able to carry some weight in the post in short minutes behind Dwight Howard.

The point is, a shocking first round dismissal from the Playoffs does not make the Magic an immediate lottery team. There is still plenty of talent (even if most is isolated in Howard) and Stan Van Gundy is going to maximize it, as he has from day 1.

With all of this in mind, Otis Smith and the rest of the Magic front office need to acknowledge that they are more than one or two pieces away from winning an NBA Championship. And these pieces are not going to come by way of a trade.

The Magic, to me, seem to be in that dreaded position Dallas was in for the latter half of the last decade. Perpetual runners up.

Should Smith pull a Pat Riley and try to clear room enough to sign a franchise point guard in the offseason, at the expense of the Magic's immediate success?

If he can somehow move Jameer Nelson and Hedo Turkoglu for little or nothing in return, other than the 19 million dollars coming off the payroll, should he do it?

Of course, there's still Gilbert Arenas and his morbidly obese contract.

Let us bow our heads and pray for an Amnesty Clause.

Would Howard be willing to stay on the promise of a massive rebuilding next summer, in the face of a contained implosion in the meantime?

And as much as I hate to say it, a contained implosion now would likely give us a head start in the event that Howard departs.

If the Magic are not realistic Championship contenders now, and are unlikely to become contenders by making any available trades, I'm not sure I see a smarter alternative than trimming the fat now and praying Howard can be sold on a brighter future with a better Orlando Magic team.

Does anyone know if Phoenix is planning to waive Vince Carter? Assuming they do, rather than swallow his 18.3 million dollar 2011/2012 season, should the Magic try to sign him for the league minimum?

JJ Redick may not be a star, but when healthy he's a serviceable starter. Why not start him and try to sign Vince as a backup? He is certainly declining, but he might be able to provide some cheap scoring off the bench.

If the Magic avoid trying to bring on a comparable replacement for Jason Richardson, of which there seems to be none available, and can exercise the anticipated amnesty clause to waive Gilbert Arenas, we will have plenty of cap space in the offseason to lure Chris Paul or Deron Williams.

Not to mention if Washington uses amnesty to waive Rashard Lewis, we could likely sign him back on for the league minimum.

I mean, why not continue the trend of bring back old players? Especially if it frees up the necessary funds to make a splash in offseason free agency.

The Knicks were swept in the first round.

The Heat defeated soundly in six games.

For the former, there is maybe some question of needing time for Melo and Amare to gel. As for the Big Three, they've had all season. Not to mention their time together on Team USA. I'm not sure what more we can expect from the Heat.

They'll need some luck, for sure. But didn't they get it this year? After an uninspired performance against the Sixers, they steamrolled through an old, injury-riddled Boston Celtics team whose best player, Rondo, was playing essentially one-armed.

They crushed the wildly-overrated Chicago Bulls, and then drew another old, injury-riddled team in the Dallas Mavericks.

It's almost like the media forgot that the Mavericks lost their second best player, Caron Butler, back in January, a blow that put the Mavericks in one of the worst slumps in franchise history. Then in the beginning of the Miami series they lose their only legit back-up center, Brendon Haywood.

Dirk dislocated his finger. Then he got a sinus infection and had to play through a 102 degree fever.

I mean...will there ever be an easier path to an NBA Championship?

And yet...

With the lockout looming, it's nice to know Dwight Howard will have these Super Team flops to think on. Not to mention Dirk's success, the lone star in Dallas (no pun intended) winning a championship for his city. Dallas is Dirk's town, now and forever. Legend status: forged in iron.

Howard could have this and he knows it. He has a lot to think about this offseason.

I find the debate regarding a hypothetical trade for Monta Ellis pretty interesting. On one hand you have some eager Magic fans, who are drawn by Ellis' aggressiveness and scoring ability. On the other, you have Evan and others (myself included) who are quick to point out Ellis' high volume, sloppy play. He would not fit smoothly into Stan Van Gundy's offense.

My question is, who would?

Ever since the NBA Finals run of 2009, Otis Smith has worked to fill an apparent hole at two guard; more specifically, a hole in the offense, the lack of a dynamic scoring option. He traded for Vince Carter, then traded Carter for Jason Richardson.

As Evan has pointed out, on paper Richardson fit in great. He's a historically great perimeter shooter who can, when necessary, attack the basket. Unfortunately he never really became the player we thought he would.

And holding on the Carter likely wouldn't have paid off either, as his decline in Phoenix suggests.

But who, then, is the guy? A better question is: what do the Magic need (short of cap room to sign Chris Paul) to curb two straight years of decline?

What would be a prototypical two guard be able to do in Stan Van Gundy's systems, and who in the NBA comes closest?

Even if he is a bit of a reach (and someone who has been mentioned on these boards a lot ) I think Andre Iguodala might be the best fit. His perimeter shooting could stand to improve, but he's a dynamic scorer who can rebound, move the ball and defend very, very well. He may not be Dwyane Wade, but he can certainly create his own shot. 

Assuming we can't pull Iggy, who is the closest comparison? And who comes after that? Name names.

And if Iguodala isn't a good fit for SVG's system, who is and why?

Last night, watching the Celtics fall to the Heat, it really hit home for me that the NBA as we know it is gone. The Western Conference is in ruins, and the East, with one obvious exception, isn't far behind.

I'm afraid that the Miami Heat will dominate the league for the next few seasons by simple default. Even with a one-armed point guard, no legitimate center and their three best players more than halfway to collecting Social Security, the Boston Celtics competed in this series. Because they are/were an exceeding well-built, well-coached team.

The fact that the Miami Heat did not sweep this series with extreme prejudice is a testament to this.

But now Boston is done. LA will be done (assuming Howard doesn't end up there this off-season), San Antonio is done. After this season it's safe to assume Dallas will soon be done.

Who can possibly stop the Miami Heat?

It really makes me sad. This Miami Heat team would have been swept easily by the 2008 Celtics. Probably even the 2009 and 2010 Celtics. And yet after winning a series that had no business being nearly as competitive as it was, Lebron is crying, people are again singing his praises (even though without Wade's inhuman first half performance the Heat would've likely lost game 5).

And yet I don't think James will ever reach his potential. He won't have to. Wade will continue to play better basketball and get half the credit he deserves. Bosh will become less emotionally-overwhelmed because it's going to get a lot easier. Which apparently is how they all prefer it.

Last summer, what the Heat did was unthinkable. But if they manage to win a title this year, the only year they might have had real competition, how does it not set a precedent for stars and GMs going forward?

I don't know if teams will ever have the time or vision to build traditional championship teams like the Spurs in their prime, the '04-05 Pistons, the '00-01 Lakers, or even necessarily serious contenders like this year's Mavericks. In a post-Heat NBA, why on earth would Dirk have stuck it out like he has?

What do you guys think? What does the NBA look like in the next 2-3 seasons?

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=3fcxf76

Hear me out.

We clear Turkoglu, who is declining badly, and bring in two low risk/potentially high reward players in Bynum and Odom.

If Bynum doesn't work out, his contract can be terminated at the end of the season. Odom's contract also essentially expires at the end of the season.

Trade bait and/or we clear some space before CP3 and Deron Williams become unrestricted free agents.

If we can waive Arenas after the new CBA (assuming the sleeping giant does not awaken) we could be in serious business.

 

Thoughts? 

Back in February, after the Magic lost to the Miami Heat on national television, I wrote a pretty hostile FanPost where I was critical of the Magic players and staff, particularly Otis Smith and the transactions he has made since the 2009 Finals.

"An era is over, Magic fans," I said. "The Dwight Howard era that began so promisingly in 2004 is over. We are witnessing the death rattle."

I went on to say, rather prophetically: "My money says the Hawks finally send us home in the postseason."

Believe me, I'm happy to admit that I didn't mean this when I said it. I intended it as a jab, a mean-spirited joke.

Life is funny, though, isn't it?

I'm ashamed of this Orlando Magic team. I'm ashamed of the players, of Stan Van Gundy and, of course, Otis Smith. Smith's relentless manipulation of the Magic roster since July, 2009, have driven this franchise into the ground.

And I don't know whether to blame Stan Van Gundy, the players, or both, but the team we saw tonight was not the team we saw on Tuesday night. They did not execute even similarly. They continued to force the ball inside to Howard, and/or to take ill-advised shots, to turn the ball over. It was shameful.

And I am ashamed.

I am going to work very hard in the coming week not to watch the Chicago Bulls sweep the Hawks.

I still believe Stan Van Gundy is a championship-level coach. And, like Doc Rivers, I have a terrible feeling that he will move on and win an NBA title elsewhere.

What does the future hold for this Magic team? Otis Smith "likes this team", a team that couldn't make it beyond the first round against a team we have dominated the past two seasons, with prejudice. Stan Van Gundy apparently can't motivate this team to play their best when it counts; at least, not anymore.

We're locked in with Hedo Turkoglu for three years. A guy who looked so out of place this series, I found him unrecognizeable, and wondered whether or not he'd ever played basketball in his life. At his age, he will only decline.

And he's ours to the bitter, bitter end.

Just like Gilbert Arenas, the guy who wanted to keep piranhas in his house and guns in his locker, the guy with the surgically reconstructed knee, the guy who this season, like Turk, has often looked like a guy who has never played organized basketball in his life. He showed flashes of his ability, at times, sure. But is that even close to enough? Is he worth even half of his salary? Is he a guy who, teamed up with Dwight Howard, can take the Orlando Magic to (at the very f***ing least) the second round of the playoffs?

Apparently not. And next season he turns 30 years old. With three years left on his ungodly contract.

I'm very afraid as a Magic fan, a lifelong Magic fan, that we are entering another dark age. Maybe the worst in franchise history.

At least when Shaq left we had Penny.

I'm afraid that the Dwight Howard era, as I predicted, is over, and that our financials are so foolishly, so recklessly encumbered that it'll be years before we can even start thinking about picking up the pieces. And who can we trust to do so? Otis Smith?

Really?

REALLY?!

Like I said in my February post, what are the odds that we get the number one pick in the NBA Draft? And that another future Hall of Fame center happens to be there?

Maybe we'll blow it on a promising player overseas who never crosses the Atlantic. It has, after all, happened before.

I'm a heartbroken fan, and I'm sure I'm not alone. And what hurts the most is knowing that this is probably just the beginning.

Never thought I'd find myself hoping for a lockout. But I'm not sure I can face a 2011/12 season.

I think I've brought this up before, but I'm more curious now than ever: what is the relationship like between these two?

I remember after losing to the Lakers in 2009, Otis Smith being somewhat critical of Stan's 1 in/4 out perimeter game, wanting to play more "traditional" ball. Obviously the Magic's offensive strategy hasn't changed much, as they continue to shoot boatloads of threes.

But the roster changes Otis Smith has made the past two seasons don't seem to support this. Or anything else I can discern. At this point, I don't really understand what the Magic are trying to do.

We trade away Rashard Lewis, struggling yes, but a great fit for SVG's system with his length and perimeter shooting, for Gilbert Arenas. A guy who has no apparent place in our offense, or anyone's defense.

Ok.

Then we trade our best perimeter defender and streaky three point shooter, Pietrus, along with our only back-up center, Gortat, for the declining Turkoglu, and unproven Earl Clark.

(The Carter/Richardson swap was basically zero sum.)

Going back to the off-season, I kind of get the Quentin Richardson signing. He'd played for Stan before, he's historically a good perimeter shooter and defender, even if he has lost a step.

But Duhon? For four years? What was the rationale there?

What's the rationale for the Orlando Magic team we currently have? I don't have a clue what Otis Smith is trying to do, but I can't imagine it falls in line with Stan Van Gundy's vision for the Magic. For two years we've endured a lot of transactions, all of which have taken us further and further away from the team that got us to the Finals in 2009. They didn't seem to improve that formula, but change it, inexplicably. Smith brought guys in who just didn't seem to fit the gameplan.

And I wonder: What does Stan Van Gundy's ideal Magic team look like? He has the coaching pedigree. He knows what he's doing. I refuse to believe he intends for our sluggish pace and almost total lack of transition offense, our inability to create shots off the dribble, our insistence on taking ill-advised three pointers.

I also refuse to believe that Otis Smith wants this, either. But I'm seriously beginning to doubt they want the same things. This looks like a team pulled apart, spread thin.

Howard wants to be in LA -- why does it have to be the Lakers? Now is the time for the Clippers to try and shift the balance of power, with Kobe's best years behind him and Phil Jackson ready to retire (again). You have to think the Clippers would jump at this trade. As explosive as Blake Griffin has been, his upside doesn't guarantee he'll ever be on Howard's level, which continues to rise.

I've heard wild trade rumors like Howard for Andrew Bynum, or for Kris Humphries and Brook Lopez. Statistically, the latter trade may seem to make some kind of ridiculous sense (Humphries/Lopez, combined, almost put up Howard's numbers? Maybe?)

And I guess you could argue that Bynum is still young. Maybe he'll stop hurting himself and start to tap his potential.

But Griffin might just be the ying to Howard's yang. His raw offensive ability is like a photographic negative of Howard's defensive power in his early years. The kid is a monster. Just not quite the monster Dwight Howard is.

No big man, or combination of bigs, would the Magic with the equity they'd give up by trading Howard. But Griffin might give us the best shot to break even, relatively speaking, in the long run. And he could bring some excitement to Orlando. After what is likely to transpire in the coming months, we're going to need it.

So: Howard for Griffin. Yay or nay?

I couldn't believe what I was seeing or hearing, but Bayless sat opposite Chris Broussard this morning on ESPN's First Take and agreed with his assessment that Howard is playing with "unparalleled dominance" (minus the turnovers). But then he upped the ante, disagreeing with Broussard's prediction that Orlando would lose to the Bulls in the second round.

Bayless said not only did he think Orlando would beat the Bulls with greater ease than they will the Hawks, but that Boston (with Shaq) will defeat the Heat, and Orlando will then defeat Boston.

Broussard said, stunned, "Then you're picking Orlando to make the Finals."

"I am," said Bayless.

As great as it was to hear Dwight's biggest antagonist in the sports media speak so highly of him and the Magic, this still feels like a bad omen. Mainly because Bayless is often so wildly wrong, as though he intends to be, confusing true contrarianism with spouting utter nonsense. I don't like him on our side.

Not that his opinions, good or bad, have any impact on anything. Certainly not the successes and failures of the Orlando Magic.

Do you guys agree with him? He did say if the Conference Finals comes down to the Heat and Magic, he likes the Heat. So it wasn't an absolute Magic/Howard lovefest. But he said even with the Heat, if the Magic are hitting 3s, anything can happen.

As difficult as it has looked for the Magic to pull even with the Atlanta Hawks, I remain skeptical, but hopeful.

What do you guys think?

Brutal commentary on Howard in his latest column. Simmons suggests Howard holds something back "every night" and I hate to admit it, but, I agree with more of what he says than I'd like to.

I disagree that Howard holds back, but I do think he's reckless when it comes to picking up cheap fouls -- especially technicals.

I'm curious what you all make of the comparison between Howard and other great centers: Shaq in his prime, Hakeem, David Robinson. Simmons suggests that because the Center position has essentially died and become something else. Arguably, Howard should be destroying everyone on both ends of the ball.

But isn't he? How much more should be be producing?

Bill Simmons: The Contenders.

See: #7 The Enigma for his write-up on the Magic.

I cannot wait to see what Dwight Howard looks like after a few weeks of not shaving, assuming anything grows in. I also hope the Magic front office has the wisdom and foresight to capitalize on this homegrown movement. Maybe game 1 of the playoff can be Beard Night at the Amway Center, free beards to the first 5000 fans (assuming they can find a distributor outside of China).

It's a far superior idea to "Code Blue" from a few years ago, which is hospital code for someone whose heart just stopped. A beard, on the other hand, brings to mind great men like King Leonidas (as played by Gerard Butler), Zach Galfianakis, Michael McDonald, Pre-UFC Kimbo Slice, or the Magic's very own: PAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAUL PORTEEEEER-ER-ER-er-er-er....!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Who wants to join the Magic on this epic journey of manliness and selective grooming? Henceforth I will not shave until the Magic win the NBA Championship, or go home, left wanting.

I have to admit, since the abyssmal loss to the Kings sans Tyreke Evans, the Orlando Magic have given me hope. It's easy to take for granted that the Magic have been a playoff staple for four straight seasons, and serious championship contenders the last two. And in the face of Otis Smith's constant, at times questionable tinkering with the roster, it's hard not to worry that our success will come undone. After all, how can we expect the same (or superior) results with different players year after year?

I'm still not convinced the Magic are a championship-caliber team, but I'm becoming a lot more open-minded. Here are some things I'll be watching out for in the coming weeks, things that I think could mean big things for us come April.

Note: This is all in addition to Dwight Howard's MVP-caliber play. Take that as a given.

5) Turkoglu and Arenas check out early

One thing I'm convinced will happen -- and would love to be wrong about -- is a disappearing act from Turkoglu and Gilbert Arenas. Turkoglu came up big for the Magic in 2009, but the spark seems to be gone. It was a contract year for him, his last chance to pull in some big money, and he certainly did.

But he just doesn't seem to care anymore. His arrogance last night, resulting in an ejection (and SVG literally pulling him off the bench to vacate the court) seemed pretty telling. It's sad to see, as he still has the size and skill to provide a great mismatch on the wing. And he did make a gorgeous lob to Howard for an alley-oop last night.

Still, I'm not convinced he can be counted on down the stretch for much more than his average production -- which, admittedly isn't 'bad', it just isn't going to give the Magic any kind of edge.

As for Arenas, it really isn't worth talking about. He will finish the season the highest paid third string player in the history of professional sports worldwide.

4) Quentin Richardson

Where did this guy come from? If he can maintain the intensity he showed last night for the remainder of the season, the Magic can expect to win a lot of games. Richardson played incredible defense last night on Carmelo Anthony, effectively taking him out of the game. I'm very curious to see how he plays against LeBron tomorrow night, not to mention Paul Pierce and Luol Deng.

Not to mention his scoring. Richardson was a beast scoring in the post last night (and ripped 5 boards) while knocking down a clutch 3.

He's the kind of player who can come in off the bench and wear out opposing starters (with the obvious exception of LeBron) and hit a few big shots, which is exactly what the Magic have been missing.

Can't help but wonder why we haven't seen him since December.

3) Ryan Anderson

At times, it almost feels like Rashard Lewis never left. Last night Anderson gave Stoudemire fits on the perimeter, locking him into a steady game of pickle between him on the perimeter and Howard on the low block. If Turkoglu steps up, these two could seemingly fill the roles Turkoglu and Lewis did in 2009. Considering Howard's offensive evolution, it stands to reason that this strategy would pay off huge.

The best part is, Anderson is just 22 years old. He's still developing as a player, getting stronger inside, boxing out. He's quickly turning into a special player, and I'm interested to see what he's capable of with a bigger role in the playoffs.

Will he reclaim the starting role from Bass?

Side Note: I'm not really sure how Bass fits in. He's way undersized to play center, or to provide much real help to Howard inside. His best game is the mid-range jumper, which doesn't really fit into the 4 out/1 in scheme. If it were up to me I'd start Anderson and bring Bass in off the bench to score some points. Last night he only took three shots, one of which was a tip-in dunk.

This is a guy whom Mark Cuban called the "best midrange shooter in the NBA". Why not take better advantage of his best asset? 

2) Jason Richardson

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Do not count out Jason Richardson. He's only 29 years old, and just last year he frequently outscored Amare Stoudemire to keep the Phoenix Suns in the playoffs.

If you need a little boost in confidence, check out these highlights from Richardson's 42 point outing against the Trailblazers in round 1. He shot 13/19, including 8/12 from 3.

Despite what we've seen from him so far, it would be foolish to assume he somehow lost his scoring talent. If there is a "sleeping giant" on the Orlando Magic, it's Jason Richardson. I can't wait to see what he does come playoff time.

1) Jameer Nelson

Last night we finally saw the All Star point guard the Magic have missed since 2009. What can we expect from him down the stretch? Obviously his quickness off the dribble won't have the same impact against Derrick Rose and Rajon Rondo that it did last night against Old Man Billups. But ever since his days at St. Joseph's, Jameer Nelson has been a scorer first, a game manager second.

In 2009 he found a balance in Orlando, running the offense efficiently while finding his shot. Last night he was all scorer, but it was nice to see someone in a Magic uniform take over a game in the clutch. How long has it been since we've seen that?

I wan't to believe last night was the beginning of Nelson's return to All Star form. In addition to his explosive scoring, I'd like to see him tighten up the pick and roll game with Howard. That could be downright scary.

Another thing to keep an eye on: I think we all heard the collective cry of horror from Magic fans when Nelson came down on Billups' ankle. It seems like every time he gets it going he ends up hurt. Can he stay healthy the remainder of this year? Can he finish strong?

I had a funny conversation with a fellow Magic fan shortly before last season. Reviewing our offseason transactions, we both came to the exact same conclusion: the Magic were stacked. Re-signing Gortat, bringing in Vince Carter and Brandon Bass, a promising young big in Ryan Anderson, Championship-tested veteran Jason Williams. Compared to the '08-'09 team, this one looked like even more of a contender.

Look at the decline. Last season was a step down, and this season is looking much worse. But what happened?

What did the Magic have two seasons ago that they don't anymore?

What's odd is the marked improvement of Dwight Howard. His game has evolved considerably since the Magic's championship run.

But what are we missing?

Here are my thoughts, but I'd love to hear yours.

1) Perpetual Mismatch in Rashard Lewis/Hedo Turkoglu

Facing a pair of dynamic 6'10" players at the 3 and 4 is a nightmare scenario for just about any team. Especially when both of them can knock down 3s. These two drew interior defenders out to the perimeter and allowed Stan Van Gundy's 1 in/4 out offensive scheme to thrive, even with Howard's lesser offensive skillset.

2) Rashard MFing Lewis

I don't want to step on Evan's toes, as he has been an outstanding advocate for Rashard, but Rashard Lewis was the cornerstone of that championship run. He led the team in scoring more often than not, and hit more than a few big shots in the clutch.  He elevated his performance in the post-season, which is the sign of a true competitor, and without him we may have lost in the first round to the 76ers. Think on that.

3) Marcin Gortat

Marcin Gortat was hungry. Does anyone else remember his Game 6 performance against Philadelphia in Howard's absence? 11 points, 15 boards. I can't recall many specific games off the top of my head, but I remember seeing several great performances from Gortat throughout the season, mainly rebounding and blocking shots. But he had a decent offensive touch, too. It seemed clear he'd see increased playing time in 09-10 and further develop his game, but it just did not happen. Gortat never looked more promising than he did that season.

4) Jameer Nelson, then Rafer Alston

 I hear it just about once a game from NBA2K11 -- "Jameer Nelson had that breakout year in 2009 when he made the All Star team, but has been mired in injury and never reclaimed that level of play."

Agreed. And why hasn't he? Nelson is just 29 years old -- prime NBA years. Thinking about him torching Derek Fisher and the Lakers in the 08-09 regular season makes me straight up nostalgic. He knew when to move the ball and when to cut to the hole, or spot up for a quick 3. However briefly, Nelson was one of the best point guards in the NBA .

And when he went down, Rafer Alston came in ready to be whoever the Magic needed him to be. Like Gortat, Alston came in hungry. He had something to prove. Past experience playing under SVG certainly helped, but there was something remarkable about Alston's ability to blend in seamlessly, and allow SVG's offense to function at nearly full-capacity,  in such a short period of time.

In the 2009 offseason I was convinced Otis Smith was building a dynasty in Orlando, not unlike the Spurs of the past decade. I know this is what he had in mind, a strong, unselfish  team built on leadership -- and the best center in the NBA. But it is becoming increasingly apparent that he doesn't know how this is done. The December trades proved it.

Unfortunately, I'm convinced we were just another team that stumbled into the right place at the right time, a "Magic formula" if you will -- something we see in a lot of One And Done NBA Champions (Detroit Pistons in '05, Miami Heat in '06) and most NBA Finals losers ('03 New Jersey Nets come to mind).

Because Turk was (and arguably is) gone. Rashard Lewis never rose to that same level of play, and he's gone too. Gortat rotted on the bench, and on the floor in his fleeting minutes. Also gone. Alston is gone, and Jameer Nelson's All Star game is MIA -- which makes me think that it was also the result of the Magic Formula.

What do you guys think? What did we have two seasons ago that we have been losing ever since?

I'm chalking it up to adapting to Stan Van Gundy's offense philosophy, but this once dynamic scorer (see: 2010 Playoffs) has apparently shut down.

This is a guy who outscored Stoudemire regularly in the post-season, dropping 42 against Portland in game 3 (and averaged at least 20ppg). He hit shots, drove, spent a lot of time on the free throw line.

It's not like he got old overnight. He just turned 30, so he should still be riding the tail end of his prime productivity. What is going on here? I expected him to put on a clinic matched up with Ray Allen today, and he has been a virtual no show.

As exciting as it is to see Dwight Howard absolutely destroying Boston in the post, I can't help but remember there has been a pretty stable inverse relationship between Howard scoring big and the Magic winning. The man-child needs some help and when he doesn't get it the team suffers.

Is this a result of SVG's perimeter strategy? Does he not know what to do with himself in this system? Did we not trade for him and Arenas to provide us with some instant offense? Of course, Arenas is a whole other issue, but, I mean, WTF?