As everyone knows, the Cardinals traded Colby Rasmus for a couple of players who will be free agents and likely generate draft pick compensation (Edwin Jackson and Octavio Dotel). They also had possible Free Agents who would also generate more draft picks in Albert Pujols and Lance Berkman. Mo was able to bring Berkman back, but now the team is looking at 4 draft picks due to compensation, the 1st and 2nd round picks we already have, as well as a possible extra pick somewhere at the end of the first or second round due to the small market/lousy team lottery. That is 7 total picks available next June in the first 2.5 rounds.

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With the upcoming big contract that could hinder the ability of the organization to build the team through free agency, a greater emphasis has to be placed on the future from within the organization.  This has peaked my interest in reviewing the Farm System and the players that we currently have in the system (reviewing both the good and the players who haven't lived up to once high expectations).

As always when talking season stats in May, small sample sizes.

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As I was just being curious about the farm with the recent call-ups of Jon Jay and Tyler Greene, I decided to review some stats from the Baby Birds.  I know, I know, these are all small sample sizes, but they can give a glimpse of the future, although it may be a fuzzy one.

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MLB Trade Rumors just posted a link to a list that ranks all of the players as of 7-30-09 as Type A, Type B, or none.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/07/elias-rankings-2.html#comments

After reviewing the list, there are some surprises and some intriguing decisions for the Front Office based on the current rankings of players (the rankings will change as the season progresses).  Let's review some of the decisions and possible outcomes of the pending FA on the Cardinals Roster, their classification, and what the FO should do.

1B OF 

Matt Holliday:  Type A Free Agent.  This is a no brainer to offer Arbitration to Holliday.  This guarantees at least 2 free draft picks if he bolts for another team. 

Rick Ankiel:  Type B Free Agent.  Currently listed at the bottom of the Type B's, so depending on how well he plays the rest of the season could determine his status.  If Ankiel remains a Type B throughout the season, I think the Cardinals would offer arbitration for a few reasons: 1)  The story of Ankiel and the Cardinals  2)  Insurance for injuries or other FA departures (Holliday)   3)  Rick could increase his trade value and still be moved next season.  By offering Arbitration, the Cardinals would receive a sandwich pick (between 1st and 2nd rounds of the draft) if Ankiel left, and I think with the other reasons with that, the FO would offer Arb because his current salary is 2.85 M and I can't see him being awarded a whole lot more than that.

(an interesting note from this group is that Skip Schumaker would be considered a high Type B 3.18 points away from Type A status and as an infielder he would be just 1.26 points away from Type A status)

2B, 3B, SS

Troy Glaus:  Type A Free Agent.  This is a difficult decision for a couple of reasons.  The Cardinals don't have a definite replacement at 3B, and the injury to Glaus questions his ability to play 3B.  One thing you have to look at when offering arbitration is the likelihood that the player will sign somewhere else and the other team knowing they will give up their 1st/2nd round draft pick to make the acquisition.  In Glaus' case, I think he will end up in the same situation as Orlando Cabrera did last season where a lot of teams refused to sign him due to his Type A status.  Combine that with doubts that he can play 3rd base, and his current salary (11.25M), the Cardinals will decline to offer Arb and search for a 3B replacement.

Mark Derosa:  Type A Free Agent.  This one also seems to be a no brainer for the Cardinals in my opinion.  By offering Arbitration, the Cardinals have a couple of things working for them.  The Cardinals would receive two draft picks in return which could help lessen the blow of losing Jess Todd if Derosa were to sign elsewhere.  Second, the Cardinals would have someone to put at 3B next season and not have to search the FA market.  If Derosa were to decline Arbitration, I can see teams being wary to sign him due to his free agent status and the offseason surgery on the wrist.  It wouldn't be as wary as signing Glaus, but it could become an issue.  This thought would give the Cardinals some leverage in re-signing Derosa because you never know how the market will shape up, so a known offer may be appealing.  Derosa currently makes 5.5M this year.

Khalil Greene:  Neither Type A or Type B.  The Cardinals should decline to offer Arb to Greene.  He is currently vastly overpaid and would net nothing in return for draft picks.

Starting Pitchers.

Joel Pineiro:  Type B Free Agent.  This could be the toughest decision the FO has to make if Pineiro remains a Type B Free Agent (currently 5th from the bottom, but Oliver Perez and Todd Wellemeyer are still Type B's below him).  There are some questions about the ability of Pineiro to continue pitching like he has this season, and the cost of re-signing Pineiro makes it difficult as well (currently makes 7.5M).  I think that this decision will have a lot to do with the progression of Mitchell Boggs and Blake Hawksworth over the remainder of the season.  If both of them show they are able to retire hitters at the major league level and will be solid contributors in the rotation next season, Pineiro will not be offered Arbitration.  If there is doubt about 1 or both of them, the FO will offer Arbitration and cross their fingers that Pineiro continues to pitch like he has this season. 

Todd Wellemeyer: Type B Free Agent.  Todd's recent demotion to the bullpen and his 4M dollar salary this season makes it a no brainer for the Cards to just cut ties.  I doubt that by the end of the year Wellemeyer is still a Type B anyway, unless he turns things around quick.  As Joe Blanton, Clayton Kershaw, Yovanni Gallardo, and Chris Carpenter continue to pitch well, Wellemeyer will be pushed out of the Type B category.

Relief Pitchers.

Ryan Franklin:  Type A Free Agent.  The Cardinals don't have to worry about arbitration with Fraklin because he has a 2.75M option for next season that the FO will pick up after this season.

Trever Miller:  Type B Free Agent.  Miller has pitched exceptionally well this year vs. lefties this season.  He is getting close to garnering Type A status.  Either way, the Cards should definitely offer arbitration to Miller and hope he reaches Type A status by the end of the year to increase his value if he signs elsewhere.  He would fall into the Juan Cruz category of last season where teams wanted to sign him but didn't want to lose the draft pick.  I think it would increase the Cards' chances of getting a deal done.

This completes the list of Type A and B Free Agents the Cardinals will have at the end of the season.  If the Cardinals were to offer Arb and have all of the players sign elsewhere, we would end up with 12 picks in the top rounds of the draft (talk about a way to restock the farm).

Recently I noticed that the Cardinals were really struggling against former starters and their new teams (Marquis, Looper, and Suppan).  I thought I would take a look back and review the performances of those 3 players against the Birds since they have not been extended. 

First off, Jason Marquis.  In 2007, Marquis went 3-1 against us with a 3.60 ERA while pitching for the Cubs.  He threw 25 innings against us that year and allowed 10 earned runs while walking 9 and striking out 10.  Nothing spectacular, but still effective.  In 2008, Marquis only threw in 1 game (took the loss), and we hit him pretty hard, 5 earned runs, 5 walks, and 4 strikeouts in 5.1 innings pitched.  This year, Marquis is 1-0, 8 ip, 0 earned runs, 4 walks and 6 strikeouts.  That brings Marquis' line for the 3 years to 4-2, 38.1 ip, 15 earned runs while sporting a 3.52 ERA.

We will then move to Braden Looper, who has just the 1 start against the Cardinals this season.  In that game he picked up the W while throwing 6 innings, giving up 1 run, 2 walks and 0 strikeouts, and a 1.50 ERA.  Once again small sample size.

Finally, lets take a look at Jeff Suppan.  In 2007, Suppan was 3-0 with 1 complete game.  He threw 23.1 innings allowing 4 earned runs, walked 4 and struck out 14.  He sported a 1.54 ERA for that year.  In 2008, Suppan went 1-0 in 2 games started, throwing 14 innings, giving up 4 earned runs walking 7 and striking out 7.  He still carried a 2.57 ERA for that year.  So far this year, Suppan has pitched twice against the Cardinals going 1-1, 10.2 innings pitched, 5 earned runs allowed, 3 walks, and 4 strikeouts.  He is carrying a 4.22 ERA for the year against the Cards.  Over the 3 years away from the Cardinals, Suppan has been 5-1 in 7 games started, throwing 48 innings, allowing 13 earned runs, 14 walks and 25 strikeouts while sporting a spiffy 2.43 ERA.

The compiled totals for these 3 is a record of 10-3, with 92.1 innings pitched, allowing 29 earned runs, handing out 34 walks, striking out 29, and sporting a sickening 2.83 ERA (sickening because our former 4th & 5th starters are being that effective against us). 

My biggest question about this is, why don't we have the best scouting reports on these pitchers?  They pitched for us for years, we let them go, and they are effective against us (and they are not even lh).  Why isn't our lineup prepared to know exactly what they are going to do against us?  Why hasn't anyone found a tip to what pitch is coming?

After seeing Felipe Lopez hit extremely well (.372 avg .413 obp) in his time in St. Louis, I feel the Cardinals have found their 2nd baseman for 2009.  Mo should act now and re-sign Lopez.  He is 28 years old, so he should be hitting his prime right now.  I feel that having him hit in the 2nd spot would give him the best chance to succeed. I don't expect him to hit .372 all of 2009, but I would expect him to hit .300+, steal 20 bases, drive in 60 runs, and be an asset to the middle infield.  I could easily see him scoring 100 runs while batting ahead of Albert.

The second move Mo needs to make is to trade Ludwick while the value is high.  The Cardinals have a surplus of OFs in their system.  With Rasmus coming up, Jon Jay and Daryl Jones having great years, this is an area that the Cardinals need to turn into pieces to help in other areas.  I would love to see the Cardinals trade Ludwick, Duncan (as a throw-in, not the centerpiece of the deal), Freese (expendable because of Glaus/Craig/Wallace in the system), and Pineiro (plus some salary relief) to the Giants for Matt Cain.  The Giants need some bats in their lineup, especially on the corner infield spots.  Ludwick could be the power bat they need, and Freese could be their 3B for the future.  If Duncan returns to form, he could be a solid 1B option for the Giants.  By including Pineiro and some salary, the Giants will have an arm to use in the rotation for cheap to help fill Cain's void.  If the Giants are interested, send Kennedy and salary relief too just to get him out of STL.  If this is not enough to land Cain, then throw in another prospect (Mather) just to get a good, cost controlled pitcher (and don't bring up the Mulder deal because Cain and Mulder are 2 different people).

With Josh Kinney coming back healthy, Russ Springer likely being offered arbitration, Motte, Perez, Franklin (not in the setup role), Brad Thompson (long reliever/spot starter) coming back, the Cardinals need to add a lefty in the Bullpen.  Brian Fuentes is a free agent and the BOB need to spend some money to get him.  He has closing experience in case Motte/Perez show they can't close, and provides a lefty the Cardinals need.  If the Cards want a backup lefty option, then re-sign Villone and use him against lefties only.

The bullpen being setup this way allows for Kyle McClellan to be moved to the rotation (and if he fails, move Thompson in and K-Mac back to the pen).  The rotation would be Waino, Cain, Wellemeyer, McClellan, and Carpenter (hopefully) or  FA pitcher (Looper, Lohse if he accepts arb, Ben Sheets on a 1 year deal, Pavano?)/young arm from minors if Carp can't go.

These moves would minimize the money needed to spend on free agents (5-6 million for Lopez, 6-7 million for Fuentes).  This also allows for the Cardinals to spend some extra money for a quality SS (Orlando Cabrera or Furcal), but if they can't, re-sign Izturis to be the SS and get him to stop being a switch hitter and just bat right handed.

By including the salary dumps, FA spending, and signing a SS, the payroll will be 5-15 million less than last season, depending on the shortstop you sign.  That still leaves a nice chunk of money that can be used to make a big payroll move late in the season if need be, or to spend on draft picks in June.

After sluggish starts, it seems that the Cardinals 3B on each level (STL through Palm Beach) are really tearing it up of late (stats from month of July).

Troy Glaus .362 / 7 / 16 / .443 / .783 / 1.226 (AVG/HR/RBI/OBP/SLG/OPS)

David Freese .361 / 4 / 12 / .409 / .623 / 1.032

Allen Craig .404 / 7 / 19 / .448 / .742 / 1.190

Tony Cruz .333 / 1 / 10 / .352 / .529 / .881

Looks to me like the corners of the infield are in good shape for a while (when you include El Hombre and Mr. Wallace on the other side). Do we potentially have a surplus of good 3B talent in the system?

I know it is only 1 month of stats, but for the season their numbers are still looking solid.

Glaus .284 / 18 / 66 / .382 / .517 / .899

Freese .283 / 16 / 54 / .337 / .497 / .834

Craig  .303 / 18 / 70 / .368 / .501 / .869

Cruz .279 / 8 / 58 / .316 / .427 / .743

I also want to note that Cruz isn't really a prospect, but just a coincidence he's also been hot in July?

Dan Uggla should not be pursued by the Cardinals.  From what I saw, he was putting a lot of pressure on himself and he just didn't make the plays.  It makes me wonder what kind of response he would have in a playoff situation where the pressure really mounts?

Russell Martin is a FAR better defensive catcher than I had previously given him credit.  He made some great plays from behind the plate, but none that I wouldn't expect Yadi to make.  The only thing I saw Martin do wrong, turned out okay.  On his sacrifice bunt, he punched at the ball instead of deadening it off of the bat.  That bunt could have been popped up/caught, but it didn't really matter because the next guys failed to drive Ludwick in anyway.

Aaron Cook made some nice pitches with his back against the wall.  I never felt worried that he was going to walk in the winning run.  He just went out and made his pitches to induce ground balls and get the NL out of a jam.

Fukudome played as if he were an average mlb player...Oh wait, he IS just an average player.

All-Star rosters should be expanded to include a couple more pitchers that are emergency only (can't play in the game unless it goes to extra innings).

In the extra frames, some of the worst defense was followed up with some of the best defense to bail his team out of trouble.  The most exciting all-star game I have ever seen.

Are the Cardinals looking to extend Ankiel and have him locked up for a while?  I know he is a Boras client, and Boras likes to go year to year, but it seems to make sense that the Cardinals try to extend Ankiel for an extended period of time.  Ankiel is a fan favorite in St. Louis.  I know I will be disappointed if he bolts for another city.  Does Ankiel feel that he owes the organization a discount considering they stuck with him through his transition?  What kind of extension should he be signed to (years/amount)? 

What more does Ankiel have to prove to earn an extension?

what would it take to acquire Mark Ellis?  The Cardinals definitely need to upgrade one of the middle infield spots.  Since the Cubs just sent the A's the replacement for Ellis, the Cards would not need to send a MI back (none of ours have value).

After thinking about this today, I recall the A's also trying to move Huston Street earlier in the year.  He is a young (25), proven closer who could solidify the closer role for the next few years (by giving him an extension).  Alan Embree could also help the left side of the pen as well (option for '09 at 3 million) even though his splits say differently for this year.

The Package:  Obviously, Reyes needs to be traded.  I can see Beane taking a chance on Reyes as part of the package.  With Street being part of the deal, I believe that makes Chris Perez expendable in the deal also (big plus for Billy since he is under club control for a while).  One area of need for Oakland is at 3B, where the Cardinals could send Freese or Craig, whichever Billy prefers (most likely Craig due to power and OBP).  Since Billy likes the high OBP guys, then Jon Jay or Daryl Jones (huge upside with only 1 good season of pro-ball) could close out the deal.

So, would a package of Reyes, Chris Perez, Allen Craig, and Daryl Jones/Jon Jay (the more I think about this, the Cards may be getting hosed?) for Mark Ellis, Huston Street and Alan Embree work?  What are your thoughts?

Since the National League has not won the All-Star game since 1996, I have wondered why this has occurred.

Could it just be that there are better players in the AL?

Could it be that since there are only 14 teams in the AL, they get to add 2 players who are having better years out of the entire AL group of teams while the National League has to take those two players from specific teams?

Could realigning the divisions cause this somehow?

Just some thoughts I have and want to know other opinions/reasons.

I understand that Jorge Cantu and Wes Helms are playing 3B fairly well, but did you forget about Dallas McPherson at AAA?  He has 21 home runs this season and a .400+ OBP.  I'm sure that Cantu could play some corner outfield if necessary?

Is Ross Wolf going to get called up soon?  Sure, it has been only 10 innings since coming off of the DL, but a 1.03 whip and a 1.69 era this season...Pretty impressive thus far.  He doesn't walk people so that's a plus as well.  He competes on every pitch and won't give in.

And I think Maybin should be forgotten until September...He's only in AA...What's the rush?

Every year throughout the season I look at other teams' rosters and try to match up a good fit for the Cardinals.  I have been doing the same this season, and while reading VEB, I have taken a new train of thought on what the Cardinals should do to improve this team not only for this year but for years to come...

If the team decides to do only one thing this season at the deadline, they need a LH Relief Pitcher who THROWS STRIKES!!!  There is nothing worse than sending your specialist to the mound to face 2 lefties and walking both of them.  Anyone on the roster could have done that.  It is a need that the Cardinals need to address (with the Reds having some solid lefties and Prince Fielder for the Brewers, Phillies at playoff time (think positive)).  It may be difficult to deal with the Pirates who seem to have the most available lefty specialists since they are within the division, so you have to look other places such as Colorado (Fuentes) or Baltimore (Sherrill) or Kansas City (Mahay).  Just pick up one of these guys, please.

I am also a big advocate of going out and trading for Placido Polanco and helping Adam Kennedy pack his bags and leave this team.  If/when this happens, it is as if the Cardinals are getting a solid defensive second baseman who gets on base, makes contact, and hits above .300 for 8 mil/year (includes Kennedy's pay).  I believe this is a bargain for the Cardinals for this and next year.

These moves could be relatively cheap in terms of prospects and would still allow the Cardinals to compete this season without literally betting the farm on this season's success, after all, we are in a rebuilding year.

And a glimpse of what these moves do for next season...

Allows the Cards to sign Orlando Cabrera, get bullpen help, and possibly go after an elite starting pitcher (15 mil+/year)?

With all of the disappointment oozing from Detroit this season, there are rumors of possibly trading some of their talent.  The only one that interests me greatly is a guy by the name of Placido Polanco.

He is solid defensively and hits for a decent average.  He is a high contact hitter (opens up the hit and run as an offensive option without much risk, 17K through 222 ABs this season).  He would be  a great fit for the 2nd spot in the order and is not that costly 4.6 million and is signed through '09.  I would even say that by throwing Kennedy's dfa'd salary on top of that and Polanco would still be a value, IMO.  He will be 33 in October so after '09, it would be a good time to get out before the major decline begins.

What would it take to get Polanco?  Motte?  Motte +1 Prospect?  Reyes?

I was just checking out Rasmus' stats from the last 10 games and it looks like he is starting to heat up (.410, 16-39, 4 2b, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 9 BB, 9 SO however) and has spread it out over the 10 games (no 0-fers).  Hopefully he stays hot and gets called up and performs like Jay Bruce...  What a nice addition that would be... Too bad Mo will need to trade some people to open a spot for him.

After last night's performance, and his previous 3, I think it is time the Cardinals to look internally for another SP to replace him.  Do you call up Anthony Reyes and try to build some trade value since you are not gaining a whole lot by having Looper start?  Do you let Mike Parisi get his shot at the rotation in order to build for the future? 

On a side note...I believe Lohse brings more value to the Cardinals in a deadline trade than he does actually being on the staff.  The way the pitchers who have been called up have performed this season, I think we should continue to look to build the rotation from within and save the money for draft pick signings.

I know that we already have a roster full of OF's, but if the Rockies make Matt Holliday available, can we really pass up making a run at him?

From 2005-2007, his stats away from Coors field are the following:

AVG: .281         OBP: .343            SLG: .466            HR: 30         RBI: 126      2B: 54

3B: 7          AB: 854            H: 240         Games Played: 214       BB: 73      K: 168

The closest road splits for that time frame that I noticed was Jimmy Rollins who had more SB and 3B, but less runs scored and a slightly lower AVG and OBP.

I know the production is down from what it has been at home, but you would assume that wherever he calls home he would produce better than on the road.

Who would the Cards need to give up outside of Rasmus, or is the deal not possible without Rasmus?

Holliday's bat would provide protection for Albert that he hasn't seen since Edmonds was in his prime...

Lately, I have been contemplating whether the Cardinals should try to lock up Kyle Lohse for an extended term and plan on declining the options of Mulder and Clement?

From 2005-2007, Lohse has normally not produced well in the months of April-June (era's over 5 in each of those months, op ba over .300 each month).  Is this season a fluke, or has working with Duncan enhanced the value of another SP (2.36 era, .248 op ba)?

As the weather heats up, so does Lohse (July & Aug. 2005-2007- 3.89, 3.36 era, .276, .255 respectively).  Should we expect great things from him this year?  If so, then we should lock him up now before Boras makes him even greedier and with leverage this upcoming offseason.

Last offseason, Lohse was looking to get a 4 yr/40 million dollar contract.  I believe the Cardinals should go ahead and decline the options on Clement and Mulder (declining would cost the Cardinals 1.75 million, but picking up Mulder's 11 million or Clements 8.75 million would be worse) and begin investing in a 29 year old pitcher who has never been on the DL and can provide quality starts.

My recommendation would be to try to lock Lohse in for 4 years at 8 million/year with incentives that if achieved would put him slightly over the 40 million he sought last offseason.

I just got back to the hotel from going to the game at PNC Park tonight.  I heard some rumblings from some of the Pittsburgh fans a few rows back (not next to me because there were only a few under 10,000 at the game) talking about how much TLR would be upset batting his pitcher 8th with 1 out and a runner on 3rd.  It really started the wheels turning about how that is not really much of an issue the way the rest of the lineup is set up.

How often will Yadier Molina be on 3rd base with 1 out or less.  He's not going to hit a triple.  He's not going to tag up from 2nd to advance on a fly ball to right.  TLR is not going to bunt the 7th hitter (unless Wagon Maker is pitching-possibly in a 1 run situation).  If there are 0 outs in the inning, it's not that big of a deal because we still have 9 and 1 to drive him in (most likely a double would present that situation-I doubt Yadi goes 1st to 3rd too often).  I really like having the pitcher bat 8th the more I think about it.

Does anyone else see any major faults with this?

Also, there were some fantastic defensive plays (Pineiro's kick save, Ryan's stop, spin and throw).

Final note:  If you want to go see a ball game and not spend a ton of money, PNC Park is where to go.  It's a spectacular stadium.  I walked up to the stadium without having bought tickets prior to going, and ended up paying $26 for seats on the field level 6 rows from the field down the 3rd base line, and beer is only $7/ 16 oz.

With all of the theories of what should happen when pitchers come back, why hasn't Wellenmeyer been discussed as an option to be the setup man?  I know the walks could be very problematic, but he throws hard and did pitch well out of the pen last season (1+ era I think).  He seems like the logical choice.  I don't think Franklin is a setup man or should be in that role much longer.  Last season was a fluke and TLR should make a change soon before it becomes a big problem in the W/L column.

Another thought:  Who should the Cardinals make sure they keep off limits (in the event we are in this near the deadline)?  I think Perez, Motte, McClellan and Garcia should all be off limits along with the Wonderboy Rasmus. 

Another thought:  If we are in this near the deadline, do you even consider making a move?  This is our rebuilding year, and should be playing for the future.  Do you continue the path that was started at the beginning of the season, or do you shift gears and sell the future for a win now scenario?  I believe the only way you do a win now is in the situation that it keeps the Cubs out of the playoffs.

If anyone caught the Cubs-Brewers game today where both closers gave up 3 runs in the 9th, did anyone else get the impression that the bullpen is a major problem for those 2 teams?  I got the sudden feeling that the door for the top of the NL Central just opened up a bit more for teams like the Cards and Reds.  Today was the first time in a LONG time that I was actually glad to have a closer like Izzy.  I feel more confident in him than I would if Wood or Gagne were my closer.

Anyone else get this impression?

Marcus Giles anyone?

He's one of those veteran players that TLR loves, and he's not been good lately.  5 years ago I would have loved to have him on the Cards, but now I'm so so.  Could he possibly be worse than Kennedy?

Should the Cardinals use the Designated Hitter for one of the middle infielders during road interleague games that Waino will pitch in?  Or any pitcher for that matter?  Just a thought...

Horacio Ramirez, the southpaw who used to pitch for the Braves, was just released by the Seattle Mariners.

Horacio has a career GO/AO ratio of 1.76.  He struggled last season in Seattle, but was okay as a Brave in the NL.  He won 7 games last year despite his 7+ era.  Seems to struggle on the road...

He has spent some time on the DL, however, it was not due to his arm (finger, hamstring).

If the scouts looked at Ponson, why not at least look at Ramirez...  He should be cheap.