Early in Sunday's 1-0 victory for Arsenal over Manchester City, Alex Song went down in a crumbled heap after City striker and general headcase Mario Balotelli decided to aerate Song's knee for him. You may have heard about it happening. It was every bit as disgusting and dangerous as the tackles which have, on numerous occasions, ended with a broken leg and a lengthy spell on the sidelines for the victim. Twitter exploded with outrage, and announcing crews and pundits the football world over took Balotelli to task for his reckless behavior. Even his own manager hoped that the incident would be looked at, and that Balotelli would be forced to sit out.

Asked if the authorities should examine the incident with Song that referee Martin Atkinson and assistant Peter Kirkup took no action over, Mancini said "I hope so'' and admitted the striker deserved a lengthy ban.

Mancini would also claim in the same interview that Balotelli would not suit up for Manchester City again this season, and would likely be sold in the offseason. Granted, it's not that big of a limb to go out on to say you won't again field a player who everyone is sure will be suspended for the remainder of the year, but at least he was willing to take the moral stand and state, without any ambiguity, that the actions of his player were despicable and should be harshly punished.

Then, of course, the FA went and FA'ed it. On the same day they decided that gently grazing an offside player was the kind of error that can not be excused they also decided that a concentrated effort to deliver a potentially career-threatening injury is okay. Justice was thoroughly not done, but the infallibility of the FA's on-field officials was upheld, and that's all that really matters. With no further punishment handed down for Balotelli beyond the bare minimum three games he received for the red card he actually received in the game, he would be eligible to play for City's final three games of the season. Fortunately, with Mancini already stating his player deserved a lengthy ban, he certainly did the right thing and made it clear the club would still be sitting Balotelli, right?

What? No. Of course not.

Continue reading this post »

(Reblogged from JustBlogGuy)

Mixed Martial Arts is still a man’s game, and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. I mean, sure, the casual MMA fan will lower himself down to watching a women’s MMA fight, just as long as one of the participants is a knockout aesthetically as a primary trait, and capable of delivering one as a distant second priority. Because after all, if a woman athlete isn’t sexy, what’s even the point? Sure, this is a horribly embarrassing truth of the average view of women involved with MMA, but if you think it’s wrong you’re fooling yourself.

In the past I’ve discussed the absolutely horrific treatment of Maggie Hendricks on nearly any article she posts, as well as Bloody Elbow’s Brent Brookhouse who had the audacity as a male writer to not think demeaning women is the bee’s knees. This week, two of MMA’s most popular personalities are here to drive home the point that misogynistic attitudes are still accepted, even praised as hilarious, by an embarrassingly large percentage of the MMA community.

First on the docket is Rampage, who has far from the greatest track record of treating women like actual people as opposed to simply objects on which he can rub his groin. Whether it was dry humping a female reporter mid-interview or pretending to motorboat Karyn Bryant, Rampage has proven more than once that acting sexually aggressive towards a woman while he is supposed to be giving a professional interview is the highest of comedy. So, it’s really saying something to note that his latest offering is offensive by the standards he has already set out. Have a gander at this lovely little piece on the finer points of picking up a woman using chloroform and zip-ties.

Now wasn’t that just the funniest thing you’ve ever seen. I mean, it has all of the funniest things you could ask for. Making light of rape? Check. Insulting the transgender community? Check. Labeling the only disgusting in it that Rampage had to be close to another penis? Check. A trifecta of deplorable behavior. The response from the UFC to Jackson can only be deemed appropriate with his release. Some are arguing it’s what Rampage wants, and made the video for that sole purpose, to which I say who cares? Mixed martial arts is a sport whose fans argue tooth and nail that the sport we love is no worse or corrupting on its viewers than the big four, and if we want anyone to take that seriously than we have to hold companies in it to the same bare-minimum standards we’d expect of any major company. I think “don’t make videos which ‘jokingly’ tell people how to rape women in empty parking lots with no surveillance,’ is a pretty good bare-minimum ethics requirement. If it’s what Jackson wanted all along, well good for him, all he had to do was prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that he is a classless, gross person to get it. The thought of making him hang around to fulfill his contract as a punishment, and earn another seven-figure payday in the process, is absurd. The only response should be immediate termination. Sadly, history says it’s an outside shot he’ll get more than a slap on the wrist.

One would hope that response from fans would be one of unanimous disgust, but of course that’s wishful thinking. Instead, opinions are split between those who don’t believe in letting PC go mad, and the uptight, no-fun killjoys who can’t take a joke. And don’t try to point out that we live in a society which helps to enable rape, in no small part due to attitudes such as those who claim that saying “creating a ‘humorous’ blue print of how to rape women isn’t funny,” just proves that people need to lighten up. Rape and sexual assault is a disgustingly under-reported crime. A society that continues to make light of it, and continues to blame victims for totally asking for it with their short skirts and cleavage is to blame. Stopping bullshit like this video is one admittedly-small step towards rectifying that and making things just a little less terrible.

Continue reading this post »

(Reblogged from JustBlogGuy)

Mixed Martial Arts is still a man’s game, and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. I mean, sure, the casual MMA fan will lower himself down to watching a women’s MMA fight, just as long as one of the participants is a knockout aesthetically as a primary trait, and capable of delivering one as a distant second priority. Because after all, if a woman athlete isn’t sexy, what’s even the point? Sure, this is a horribly embarrassing truth of the average view of women involved with MMA, but if you think it’s wrong you’re fooling yourself.

In the past I’ve discussed the absolutely horrific treatment of Maggie Hendricks on nearly any article she posts, as well as Bloody Elbow’s Brent Brookhouse who had the audacity as a male writer to not think demeaning women is the bee’s knees. This week, two of MMA’s most popular personalities are here to drive home the point that misogynistic attitudes are still accepted, even praised as hilarious, by an embarrassingly large percentage of the MMA community.

First on the docket is Rampage, who has far from the greatest track record of treating women like actual people as opposed to simply objects on which he can rub his groin. Whether it was dry humping a female reporter mid-interview or pretending to motorboat Karyn Bryant, Rampage has proven more than once that acting sexually aggressive towards a woman while he is supposed to be giving a professional interview is the highest of comedy. So, it’s really saying something to note that his latest offering is offensive by the standards he has already set out. Have a gander at this lovely little piece on the finer points of picking up a woman using chloroform and zip-ties.

Now wasn’t that just the funniest thing you’ve ever seen. I mean, it has all of the funniest things you could ask for. Making light of rape? Check. Insulting the transgender community? Check. Labeling the only disgusting in it that Rampage had to be close to another penis? Check. A trifecta of deplorable behavior. The response from the UFC to Jackson can only be deemed appropriate with his release. Some are arguing it’s what Rampage wants, and made the video for that sole purpose, to which I say who cares? Mixed martial arts is a sport whose fans argue tooth and nail that the sport we love is no worse or corrupting on its viewers than the big four, and if we want anyone to take that seriously than we have to hold companies in it to the same bare-minimum standards we’d expect of any major company. I think “don’t make videos which ‘jokingly’ tell people how to rape women in empty parking lots with no surveillance,’ is a pretty good bare-minimum ethics requirement. If it’s what Jackson wanted all along, well good for him, all he had to do was prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that he is a classless, gross person to get it. The thought of making him hang around to fulfill his contract as a punishment, and earn another seven-figure payday in the process, is absurd. The only response should be immediate termination. Sadly, history says it’s an outside shot he’ll get more than a slap on the wrist.

One would hope that response from fans would be one of unanimous disgust, but of course that’s wishful thinking. Instead, opinions are split between those who don’t believe in letting PC go mad, and the uptight, no-fun killjoys who can’t take a joke. And don’t try to point out that we live in a society which helps to enable rape, in no small part due to attitudes such as those who claim that saying “creating a ‘humorous’ blue print of how to rape women isn’t funny,” just proves that people need to lighten up. Rape and sexual assault is a disgustingly under-reported crime. A society that continues to make light of it, and continues to blame victims for totally asking for it with their short skirts and cleavage is to blame. Stopping bullshit like this video is one admittedly-small step towards rectifying that and making things just a little less terrible.

Continue reading this post »

(Reblogged from JustBlogGuy)

Mixed Martial Arts is still a man’s game, and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. I mean, sure, the casual MMA fan will lower himself down to watching a women’s MMA fight, just as long as one of the participants is a knockout aesthetically as a primary trait, and capable of delivering one as a distant second priority. Because after all, if a woman athlete isn’t sexy, what’s even the point? Sure, this is a horribly embarrassing truth of the average view of women involved with MMA, but if you think it’s wrong you’re fooling yourself.

In the past I’ve discussed the absolutely horrific treatment of Maggie Hendricks on nearly any article she posts, as well as Bloody Elbow’s Brent Brookhouse who had the audacity as a male writer to not think demeaning women is the bee’s knees. This week, two of MMA’s most popular personalities are here to drive home the point that misogynistic attitudes are still accepted, even praised as hilarious, by an embarrassingly large percentage of the MMA community.

First on the docket is Rampage, who has far from the greatest track record of treating women like actual people as opposed to simply objects on which he can rub his groin. Whether it was dry humping a female reporter mid-interview or pretending to motorboat Karyn Bryant, Rampage has proven more than once that acting sexually aggressive towards a woman while he is supposed to be giving a professional interview is the highest of comedy. So, it’s really saying something to note that his latest offering is offensive by the standards he has already set out. Have a gander at this lovely little piece on the finer points of picking up a woman using chloroform and zip-ties.

Now wasn’t that just the funniest thing you’ve ever seen. I mean, it has all of the funniest things you could ask for. Making light of rape? Check. Insulting the transgender community? Check. Labeling the only disgusting in it that Rampage had to be close to another penis? Check. A trifecta of deplorable behavior. The response from the UFC to Jackson can only be deemed appropriate with his release. Some are arguing it’s what Rampage wants, and made the video for that sole purpose, to which I say who cares? Mixed martial arts is a sport whose fans argue tooth and nail that the sport we love is no worse or corrupting on its viewers than the big four, and if we want anyone to take that seriously than we have to hold companies in it to the same bare-minimum standards we’d expect of any major company. I think "don’t make videos which ‘jokingly’ tell people how to rape women in empty parking lots with no surveillance,’ is a pretty good bare-minimum ethics requirement. If it’s what Jackson wanted all along, well good for him, all he had to do was prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that he is a classless, gross person to get it. The thought of making him hang around to fulfill his contract as a punishment, and earn another seven-figure payday in the process, is absurd. The only response should be immediate termination. Sadly, history says it’s an outside shot he’ll get more than a slap on the wrist.

One would hope that response from fans would be one of unanimous disgust, but of course that’s wishful thinking. Instead, opinions are split between those who don’t believe in letting PC go mad, and the uptight, no-fun killjoys who can’t take a joke. And don’t try to point out that we live in a society which helps to enable rape, in no small part due to attitudes such as those who claim that saying "creating a ‘humorous’ blue print of how to rape women isn’t funny," just proves that people need to lighten up. Rape and sexual assault is a disgustingly under-reported crime. A society that continues to make light of it, and continues to blame victims for totally asking for it with their short skirts and cleavage is to blame. Stopping bullshit like this video is one admittedly-small step towards rectifying that and making things just a little less terrible.

Continue reading this post »

As we draw closer to the UFC's historic return to Japan it's hard to hold back the excitement. From top to bottom this card is stacked with fights that promise to be barn burners. As always, Ben and myself are here to look at the main event, top locks, best 'dogs and, tonight, the most intriguing fight outside of the two feature bouts.

Who you got in the Main Event?

Ben: As a fellow guy named "Ben" I will be quite pleased should Ben Henderson win the UFC Lightweight title at UFC 144. That said, Edgar should win, and probably with more ease than his previous title defenses against B.J. Penn and Gray Maynard. Edgar has beaten better strikers (Penn) and better wrestlers (Maynard, Sean Sherk of 2009), so it is hard to see how Henderson gets the advantage on the champ. Edgar was rocked pretty badly by Maynard in round one of both fights, yet I cannot recall Ben Henderson rocking a high-caliber opponent with strikes during his UFC and WEC run. Ben Henderson is a well rounded fighter and will probably hang for the full five rounds, so for me the pick is Frankie Edgar by decision, with medium confidence.

Bobby: When in doubt (though, honestly, I never really was) I like to err on the side of trading on insider information by asking people who know more than me. Jim Miller has faced both men in his career, having fought Henderson last year and Edgar in the early years of their careers while also training with the champion from time to time. Jim said Edgar was trickier to deal with physically during their healthy rolling sessions than Henderson, who he unknowingly fought with a kidney infection and mono. If Hendo really can't offer more of a grappling threat against a weakened opponent than Edgar can to the same guy at full strength, this is a terrible match-up for "Smooth" because Frankie's speed on the feet is likely too much for Bendo to overcome without forcing a ground battle.

What under-the-radar fight absolutely can not be missed?

Ben: A pink slip derby on the main card is pretty interesting schadenfreude. Basically the loser of Akiyama vs. Shields is getting cut from the UFC. Yoshihiro Akiyama has lost three straight UFC fights at middleweight, so he is dropping weight 15 pounds and making his welterweight debut. Jake Shields has lost two fights in a row (albeit to the champ GSP, and to a top contender in Jake Ellenberger) and a trip overseas seems like a tough way for Shields to pickup that comeback win. I like Shields to get a decision win here, although I have very low confidence in his ability to do so.

Bobby: While the footie fan in me is instantly more intrigued by anything described as a derby (particularly on the eve of my beloved Arsenal's London derby tomorrow) I'm paying my extra attention to Bart Palaszewski and Hatsu Hioki. Hioki is the #2 ranked featherweight in the world, the highest rank for any Japanese fighter in any class, and winning a title shot before the home crowd would be a sight to see. That said, don't count out Palaszewski who has fantastic submission escapes and dangerous striking. This fight strikes me as one that's going the distance without a boring moment.

Continue reading this post »

This opinion piece is reblogged from Just Blog Guy

As Frankie Edgar gets ready to defend his belt for the fourth time, a feat which would set a new UFC record for successful defenses of the lightweight title, it has led to speculation about where another win would put him relative to BJ Penn as the GOAT of the UFC's lightweight division. How many more wins does the current champ need to pass "The Prodigy" on the all-time leaderboard?

None, as far as I'm concerned.

So many articles have been written about how underrated Edgar and his accomplishments are in the past year that you'd think it couldn't possibly still be the case. After all, there's only so many times you can be called underrated before it starts to seem like everyone agrees you're pretty damn good. I'm a Pittsburgh Steeler fan with an undying man-love for Hines Ward, but even I have to admit that there came a point when all the "most underrated wide receiver in football" talk was laughable. And yet, in the MMA community on the whole, it doesn't take much reading around to find many people once again willing to discredit the champion and his accomplishments despite all the experts falling over themselves to point out people really ought to stop doing it. What many point to in continuing to crown Penn as the best there's ever been is the dominance with which he battered all of his opponents. Well, all of his opponents until Edgar, at least. Unfortunately for those pointing to that argument, not all opponents are created equal. For example, I have it on good authority that the guy Edgar beat to win the title, and the guy he beat in his first title defense, would beat the pants off of anyone that Penn fought for the title. Call it a hunch..

Simply put, Edgar has faced a substantially higher level of competition in his title fights than Penn. Put Gray Maynard in the cage with Penn and he is likely to, at worst, fare better than any of Penn's three defense opponents did. Put Edgar in there with Stevenson and even the most ardent Penn-backer would have to admit that a one-sided fight is in store for "Joe Daddy." Similarly, Sanchez and Florian face a very similar problem in Edgar that Penn posed - an opponent with the grappling to keep things standing, and the striking to pick them apart. When Edgar faced Sean Sherk, he dominated from bell to bell.

When you get right down to the brass tacks of it, here's how their records as UFC lightweights stack up against each other:

Penn is 10-3-1, with a 4-3 record in title fights. He got half his wins in the early days of the sport when the level of competition was not as high. One of the three losses is avenged.

Edgar is 9-1-1. with a 3-0-1 record in title fights. He also has a win over the man responsible for the only loss and only draw on that record and fought in a time when the level of competition was higher. For the kicker, he holds a 2-0 record over Penn.

Now, has Edgar accomplished more than Penn in the sport? No. On the great theoretical totem pole of MMA accomplishments, Penn has a higher rung (for now) thanks to his work outside the UFC and most of all to his successful challenge for the UFC welterweight title. But none of that has any bearing on who the best UFC lightweight to date is. Take the names off, and as a result lose the influence of accomplishments outside the UFC's lightweight division. Just look at the records from an unbiased perspective and it's hard to see how Edgar is not already the owner of the best record in UFC lightweight history.

This opinion piece is reblogged from Just Blog Guy

As Frankie Edgar gets ready to defend his belt for the fourth time, a feat which would set a new UFC record for successful defenses of the lightweight title, it has led to speculation about where another win would put him relative to BJ Penn as the GOAT of the UFC's lightweight division. How many more wins does the current champ need to pass "The Prodigy" on the all-time leaderboard?

None, as far as I'm concerned.

So many articles have been written about how underrated Edgar and his accomplishments are in the past year that you'd think it couldn't possibly still be the case. After all, there's only so many times you can be called underrated before it starts to seem like everyone agrees you're pretty damn good. I'm a Pittsburgh Steeler fan with an undying man-love for Hines Ward, but even I have to admit that there came a point when all the "most underrated wide receiver in football" talk was laughable. And yet, in the MMA community on the whole, it doesn't take much reading around to find many people once again willing to discredit the champion and his accomplishments despite all the experts falling over themselves to point out people really ought to stop doing it. What many point to in continuing to crown Penn as the best there's ever been is the dominance with which he battered all of his opponents. Well, all of his opponents until Edgar, at least. Unfortunately for those pointing to that argument, not all opponents are created equal. For example, I have it on good authority that the guy Edgar beat to win the title, and the guy he beat in his first title defense, would beat the pants off of anyone that Penn fought for the title. Call it a hunch..

Simply put, Edgar has faced a substantially higher level of competition in his title fights than Penn. Put Gray Maynard in the cage with Penn and he is likely to, at worst, fare better than any of Penn's three defense opponents did. Put Edgar in there with Stevenson and even the most ardent Penn-backer would have to admit that a one-sided fight is in store for "Joe Daddy." Similarly, Sanchez and Florian face a very similar problem in Edgar that Penn posed - an opponent with the grappling to keep things standing, and the striking to pick them apart. When Edgar faced Sean Sherk, he dominated from bell to bell.

When you get right down to the brass tacks of it, here's how their records as UFC lightweights stack up against each other:

Penn is 10-3-1, with a 4-3 record in title fights. He got half his wins in the early days of the sport when the level of competition was not as high. One of the three losses is avenged.

Edgar is 9-1-1. with a 3-0-1 record in title fights. He also has a win over the man responsible for the only loss and only draw on that record and fought in a time when the level of competition was higher. For the kicker, he holds a 2-0 record over Penn.

Now, has Edgar accomplished more than Penn in the sport? No. On the great theoretical totem pole of MMA accomplishments, Penn has a higher rung (for now) thanks to his work outside the UFC and most of all to his successful challenge for the UFC welterweight title. But none of that has any bearing on who the best UFC lightweight to date is. Take the names off, and as a result lose the influence of accomplishments outside the UFC's lightweight division. Just look at the records from an unbiased perspective and it's hard to see how Edgar is not already the owner of the best record in UFC lightweight history.

The main event of the evening tonight promises to be a fast-paced thriller as current UFC lightweight champion defends his belt for the fourth time against former WEC champion Benson Henderson. A successful defense for Edgar would see him take sole possession of the record for most successful defenses of the UFC lightweight title.

Frankie Edgar

Edgar is called underrated by sports writers so frequently that you'd think it had to be untrue by now, and yet somehow, still never seems to get the love he deserves from a healthy portion of the MMA world. As recently as this very bout pros have gone on the record as saying they still consider Penn, a man Edgar beat then thoroughly dominated beyond a shadow of a doubt, is still the best lightweight in the world. With another win Edgar will likely still have his doubters, but perhaps they will at least be fewer in number.

Recent Fights

Edgar earned his title shot on a modest three fight winning streak, and while it included a win over former champion Sean Sherk, culminated with a win over Matt Veach, leaving many to question if he deserved a shot at the lightweight GOAT. Edgar responded convincingly to those questions by defeating Penn, then when fans clamored for a re-match, sure that the upset victory was a fluke, Edgar came back and did it again in resounding fashion. For his next defense Edgar was paired with the only man to ever beat him, Gray Maynard. Edgar was nearly finished multiple times in the fight before roaring back to earn a split draw and another rematch. Deja vu set in as again Maynard had Edgar badly hurt, and yet again Edgar made it back to his stool and came out from the second on like the savage beating had never occurred. By the fourth round Edgar had completely taken over and, ultimately, found Maynard's off switch with strikes.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Edgar came into the sport as a wrestler who used his speed and grappling experience to wear away on opponents. After years of working his boxing with Mark Henry, however, Edgar has developed into a dominant striker which was never more on display than in picking apart Penn, long considered the division's best striker at the top of the division. Edgar uses his speed to pop in and out of range, hitting his opponents then exiting the pocket before there is any time for counter-fire. The biggest flaw Edgar has experienced in his time on the feet is a tendency to drop his hands at times when circling, leading to the troubling times in both Maynard fights. Although Edgar has not used his wrestling offensively much of late, he remains the only man to ever take Penn down at lightweight, and scored takedowns on Maynard as well, while defending shots from the latter. Many view Edgar's size as a disadvantage in grappling, however in fighting a massive Maynard it showed little sign of serving as a detriment.

Fantasy Impact

Although the fantasy books are more or less in line with the Vegas odds here, I love a play on Edgar who continues to be undervalued in my opinion. The big concern for Edgar is dealing with the size of Henderson when the fighters clinch up, that being if Henderson is able to force a clinch. While Edgar is the smaller man, his grappling strength is off the charts and he's proven they hold up even against much bigger men. The speed edge for Edgar on the feet will ultimately be the difference in the fight as he continually picks Henderson apart from range until Henderson is too worn out to take anymore in the third round.

Ben Henderson analysis after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

The co-main event of the UFC 144 broadcast Saturday night may well be the main attraction for the locals in attendance, as former pride hero Quinton "Rampage" Jackson returns to Japan to take on TUF winner Ryan Bader. The bout was originally targeted for inclusion on the UFC's first full Fox card, however Jackson was adamant about fighting in Japan ever since the card was announced, and insisted it be moved to UFC 144.

Quinton Jackson

A former UFC light heavyweight champion who battered his way to the top with thundering punches, Jackson began his big-stage career in PRIDE where he used his grappling to score knock outs. Most notably in a bout with Ricardo Arona, Jackson was caught in a triangle choke by the Brazilian and countered by calmly getting to his feet, lifting Arona, triangle-intact, over his head, and powerbombing the BJJ black belt unconscious.

Recent Fights

After losing his title to Forrest Griffin, Jackson was paired up with Wanderlei Silva in a rematch of two brutal defeats for Jackson under the PRIDE banner, and quickly scored the KO vindication. Although his follow-up decision over Keith Jardine was a bit lackluster at times, it set up a season opposite Rashad Evans as coaches on The Ultimate Fighter. The season ended with a fight against Evans, where Jackson dropped a decision after being positionally dominated. Jackson was then paired with another former champion, Lyoto Machida, winning a controversial decision and with a second straight win by way of Matt Hamill was given a shot to regain his title against Jon Jones. Like Jones' prior challengers, however, the fight ended with the young champion still very much entrenched as the division's best after locking on a rear naked choke on a turtling Jackson.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Jackson has a base in wrestling however he has rarely used it in an offensive manner to take fights from the feet to the mat, and has struggled against younger wrestlers who have managed to get in on Jackson and deposit "Rampage" on his back. On the feet Jackson uses a predominantly upper-body attack, and hits hard when he lands clean. His biggest weakness on the feet is one which has often been exploited inside the Octagon, namely that he fights with heavy legs, rarely employing effective checks to prevent opponents from chipping away at his base with leg kicks. What "Rampage" is most well known for, however, is his strength when he can get a solid hold of opponents, sending them up then down in devastating slams. Although it remains a first thought in many fans minds, however, the slam has become an increasingly less-utilized aspect of Jackson's game as time has worn on.

Fantasy Impact

Jackson's preferred style of fighting appears to be one which aligns well with the weaknesses in Bader's game. The younger fighter lacks technical polish on the feet and there are questions about his ability to take a punch. Jackson has not had the best finishing records in recent years, but the longer this fight goes the more of an even match-up it becomes, so take Jackson with a first round KO. For fantasy betting, Jackson has a -400 line that is not worth any kind of play.

Ryan Bader analysis after the jump.

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Former UFC middleweight title challenger Yushin Okami will look to rebound from his loss to Anderson Silva by handing Tim Boetsch his first ever middleweight defeat. For his part, Boetsch knows that a victory over the #3 middleweight in the world will lend instant credibility to his 2-0 record since making the drop from light heavyweight.

Yushin Okami

Okami is the most-tenured Japanese fighter on the current UFC roster, with nearly half of his 32-fight career having taken place in the UFC since joining in in 2006. With just three losses in his UFC career, to champion Anderson Silva and in a pair of #1 contender bouts, Okami is one of the best there is at 185 pounds.

Recent Fights

After twice having fallen in bouts which would have earned a shot at Anderson Silva's belt, first dropping a decision to former champion Rich Franklin then again coming up short against Chael Sonnen, Okami finally got over the bar and earned his shot at the title. A TKO of Lucio Linhares was followed up by decisions over Mark Munoz and Nate Marquardt, setting up a rematch with Silva, who Okami holds a win over from a Rumble on the Rock bout when Silva was disqualified for head kicking Okami while the Japanese fighter was in his guard. The rematch also ended with Okami battered and unable to defend himself, and unfortunately for Okami the blows were all legal this time.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Okami's style inside the cage is not always the most crowd-pleasing, but he remains one of the most effective fighters in the sport at forcing his game plan onto an opponent. Although his striking at range has improved, and he should hold an edge in this fight in that phase, it remains the weakest aspect of his game. Where Okami prefers to be is in tight. He has good offense from in the clinch, with both strikes and throws, and once on the mat he possesses a smothering top game which he uses to earn TKO's or dominant decisions.

Fantasy Impact

Okami is giving a +2 underdog bonus to his opponent in fantasy picking, which is usually the surest sign that you want to be picking somebody to win a fight. Okami has a much more proven record at the upper end of the sport, and should take the bout comfortably. The question becomes whether or not Okami can finish Boetsch, and while he has struggled with being decision-heavy in his UFC career, he has also spent much of it against top-end opposition, and this bout seems like another chance like the Linhares fight to pick up a TKO win in the middle frame.

Tim Boetsch analysis after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

The third bout on Saturday's fight-packed UFC 144 broadcast features two fighters on losing streaks at the hands of some of the UFC's best fighters as Jake Shields fights Yoshihiro Akiyama. For the winner another shot at a fringe top-ten fighter likely awaits, while the loser may well find himself out of a job.

Yoshihiro Akiyama

Akiyama's addition to the UFC's middleweight division was met with great anticipation by fight fans, as Sexyama was considered to be one of the best fighters outside of the world's top promotion. Since moving over to the UFCAkiyama has struggled greatly, though has curiously seemed to fail upward in prior bouts, seeing a steady improvement of opponent ranking in each of his prior four bouts.

Recent Fights

Akiyama entered the UFC on a three fight winning streak, which followed a string of three fights in which he saw both a win and a loss turned into no contests as a result of illegal actions. For his debut fight Akiyama took on Alan Belcher as a strong favorite. Akiyama struggled with the American, however, escaping with a contentious split decision. In his next bout Akiyama faded late in a fight with Chris Leben, getting submitted by a triangle choke, then was paired with Michael Bisping where he dropped a unanimous decision. Riding a two fight losing streak, Akiyama was still paired up with Vitor Belfort, who one fight prior was vying for the UFC middleweight title. Belfort made short work of Akiyama, handing Akiyama his third straight loss and prompting a drop in weight.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Akiyama has struggled to truly establish his winning style for the upper level of the sport since signing with the UFC. On both the feet and on the mat Akiyama is a serviceable opponent, and has multiple finishes by both TKO and by submission, however his UFC tenure has been marked by two large problems -- lack of potency in his attack and woeful cardio issues. Although Akiyama showed toughness in his bouts prior to the Belfort fight, continuing to press forward through brutal fights, the proven ability to press on necessitates that your style has also left you open to taking a lot of damage. Taking punishment can also be one of the most draining aspects of the sport, and accordingly Akiyama has shown a trend of fights getting progressively harder for him as the fight drags on into the later rounds.

Fantasy Impact

Akiyama is the big betting underdog, and also carries with him a +2 bonus for successfully picking him in the pick 'em game. This is with good reason. Although Shields himself is a flawed fighter, the holes in Akiyama's game match up dangerously with Shields' strengths. If Akiyama is to win it will likely be with an early knockout, however you are better suited staying away altogether, as it is more likely that Akiyama fails to put Shields away and, when the fight grinds on and Akiyama wears out, he finds himself on the wrong side of Shields' top game.

Jake Shields analysis after the jump.

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The second bout of the UFC 144 broadcast may well see the featherweight division's new #1 contender crowned as world #2 featherweight Hatsu Hioko takes on Bart Palszewski. The Japanese crowd will be hoping to see Hioki earn a shot at his third major featherweight title, while the seasoned veteran Palaszewski tries to play spoiler.

Hatsu Hioki

The addition of Hioki to the UFC's featherweight division was one of the most anticipated signings of 2011, as it brought over the highest ranked fighter who was previously outside of the Zuffa umbrella. With a great deal of hype comes high expectations, however, and as one of the UFC's most recognizable faces in Japanese fighting the pressure will be extra high in the UFC's return to Asia.

Recent Fights

Hioki is on a five-fight winning streak since suffering a loss to Michihiro Omigawa, going uneaten in that time frame. The run has seen Hioki win the two biggest featherweight crowns in Japan, first claiming the Shooto title and then the Sengoku strap, and now needs only the biggest prize of them all, the UFC featherweight title, to complete his collection. Hioki's UFC debut came against George Roop, and while Hioki was the prohibitive favorite coming in, Roop gave Hioki everything he had leaving the Japanese fighter to barely escape with a split decision victory.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Although neither fighter is incapable in their less-favored area of work inside the cage, this fight will likely break down into a style-vs-style pairing as the fight wears on. Although sound on the feet, Hioki is on a different level on the mat, where he has racked up a dozen submission victories in his career. Hioki is aggressive on the mat and won't stop hunting for the opening to improve his position or snatch a limb from Palaszewski if the American fighter gets caught out of position.

Fantasy Impact

Despite an unexpectedly difficult debut in the UFC, Hioki is still a strong favorite in this bout. The fantasy odds beg to differ, however, with the Japanese fighter available for just -120. Place a straight bet on Hioki for a relatively safe but modest return, and include the submission fighter in your parlay. Although a submission is possible, Palaszewski has been submitted just once in the past seven years and that was a technical stoppage which he disputed, so go with Hioki to positionally earn a unanimous decision.

Bart Palaszewski analysis after the jump.

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Saturday's UFC 144 broadcast features a modern record of seven scheduled fights on the Pay Per View portion of the card. While most of the bouts on the main card feature Japanese fighters or combatants who made their name in the PRIDE FC organization, the card is bookended by a pair of lightweight scraps with no ties to Japan, but which promise nothing if not high-intensity action. Kicking off the card is a bout between Anthony Pettis and Joe Lauzon which, along with the night's main event and a May bout between Jim Miller and Nate Diaz, will likely decide the next UFC lightweight title fight.

Joe Lauzon

Lauzon emerged on the scene with a splash as he was plucked from obscurity to take on former UFC lightweight champion Jens Pulver in Pulver's return to the UFC. Expected to be an easy re-entry bout for Pulver, Lauzon stunned fans by taking less than a minute to knock Pulver out. From there Lauzon moved on to The Ultimate Fighter 5 cast where he was a season favorite, only to fall in the semifinals to Manny Gamburyan. Since the show, Lauzon has maintained an exciting fighting style which has made him a fan favorite.

Recent Fights

Lauzon's past six fights have ended with the Massachusetts native leaving with some extra of-the-night change in his pocket, either in the form of a fight bonus for a loss or a submission bonus for a win. After submitting Jeremy Stephens with an armbar as the main event of UFC Fight Night 17 Lauzon was out of the Octagon for nearly a year with a knee injury. After a strong start in his return bout, Lauzon wilted late in losing a decision to Sam Stout. After thrashing Gabe Ruediger with another armbar, Lauzon again fell after a strong start, this time by TKO to George Sotiropoulos. Another quick win over Curt Warburton earned a shot against Melvin Guillard where Lauzon was a heavy underdog, but Lauzon dropped Guillard early and quickly took the back of the favorite and sunk in a fight-ending rear naked choke.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Lauzon's bread and butter is his grappling game and the pace with which he brings it early in a fight. Lauzon has a go-go-go style on the mat, constantly working to improve his position, rain down damage to soften up defenses or latch on a submission, which he then chains effortlessly until opponents are overwhelmed and succumb. While he is not the most technical striker, he fights with a similar high pace early, and as shown against Guillard and Pulver, Lauzon packs some power when he lands. Unfortunately for Lauzon, his fast pace is also his biggest weakness. In the past three years, Lauzon is 4-0 in fights lasting 2:01 or less, and just 1-3 in fights extending beyond the 2:01 mark, with a similar pattern in all three defeats of Lauzon taking the early stages of the fight, only to tire out and be battered for the remainder of the bout.

Fantasy Impact

Lauzon goes off as a bigger underdog on MMA Playground's betting game than in any major online book, and at +235 is an appealing option as a straight play who is not wrongly an underdog, but is still undervalued and as such worth a look. For straight picking there is also an added appeal that, if Lauzon is to win, you can be fairly confident of the method. His strength in submissions and weakness in cardio means that if you hit on the 5 points for picking the right fighter, there's a good chance you will get at least a bonus 3 for either round or method, and likely the full 11 point score for a perfect selection. In eight wins, picking Lauzon by round one submission would be good for at least 8 points in all but one bout, and hit a full bingo four times for 73 of a possible 88 points (83-percent of possible points.)

Anthony Pettis analysis after the jump.

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With the recent announcement that Nick Diaz had failed a post-fight drug test at UFC 143, and already important UFC on Fuel was just given even more weight. With Diaz on the sideline and GSP’s knee injury suddenly feeling a lot worse as soon as a he lost the chance to fight Diaz, the need for an interim title defense by champion Carlos Condit has grown, and the winner of this fight may well find himself in prime position to be the man to challenge for the strap.

Jake Ellenberger

Ellenberger is a veteran of the IFL, Bodog and Bellator prior to signing on with the UFC, and despite clawing his way into the top ten has remained outside of discussions for fighters at the top of the division looking for a title shot. With his only loss in his last ten coming by way of a split decision to newly crowned interim welterweight champion Condit, adding another big name to his trophy case could be just what Ellenberger needs.

Recent Fights

Since the split decision loss to Condit, Ellenberger has won five straight fights in 2010 and 2011, failing to get the finish only once. Ellenberger stopped Mike Pyle in the second round in his first bounce-back fight, then blew up John Howard’s eye like a beach ball to force the doctor’s hand. Carlos Eduardo Rocha’s tricky ground game offered some threat to Ellenberger, but the American showed equally game escapes and punished his way to a split decision win. Ellenberger began voicing his wish to take on a big name, but was forced to settle for a bout with Sean Pierson at UFC 129, where a quick KO there set up a fight with Jake Shields. Shields was dismissive of Ellenberger before the fight, but certainly not after when Ellenberger needed just :53 seconds to claim the undisputed Jake Welterweight Championship Title.

Strengths and Weaknesses

As is a popular trend on this fight card, Ellenberger is a wrestler who often prefers to use his pedigree to keep the fight upright, rather than to set up opportunities to hammer away from on top. Ellenberger is a technically sound striker and he hits with great power. What’s more, Ellenberger is effective both at range and in tight, making any time on the feet with him a dangerous proposition. Where Ellenberger is most likely to be in trouble with Sanchez is if the Jackson MMA fighter manages to put him on his back, however Ellenberger’s wrestling should be strong enough to prevent that.

Fantasy Impact

Ellenberger is providing some of the best value on the card, with a -250 line despite sports books favoring Ellenberger as high as -400. For players with a high bankroll, invest some safe money in Ellenberger for solid return, while players looking for big scores should consider Ellenberger with a pair of moderate dogs in a parlay. For fantasy picking, Sanchez is durable but the end seems inevitable, so take Ellenberger by TKO in round two.

Diego Sanchez analysis after the jump.

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The night's co-main event is a heavyweight scrap between Stefan Struve and Dave "Peewee" Herman. Just a few years ago both were considered bright prospects in the always-thin heavyweight division, and while Struve has fallen against top tier competition, Herman remains untested at the top of the sport, and will look to catapult from this win into just such a test.

Stefan Struve

Struve is the tallest fighter in the UFC, and after debuting just two days after his 21^st birthday was one of the youngest debuting fighters ever in the promotion. Struve’s relatively-slight build for a heavyweight, combined with his long limbs, makes a unique match-up for any opponent he is paired with.

Recent Fights

Struve is on an impressive 6-2 run in the UFC since dropping his debut to Junior Dos Santos, however the Dutch giant has been unable to string together a long chain of victories in his UFC tenure to-date. His three fight winning streak was snapped by a Roy Nelson TKO, and after scoring TKO wins over Christian Morecraft and Sean McCorkle, Struve was again stopped early, this time by Travis Browne. Struve managed to avoid his first ever consecutive losses by trading blows in a tight first round against Pat Barry, then locking on a fight-ending triangle and surviving a Barry slam which only tightened the hold in the second round.

Strengths and Weaknesses

The long and relatively-lean frame of Struve provides both his greatest strengths and weaknesses inside the cage. On the mat Struve’s long limbs make it easier for him to catch opponents with submissions, and he has finished half his wins with taps. His reach allows Struve to keep opponents on the outside of their own range when Struve is properly working his jab and straight punches. On the other hand, when opponents are able to get inside on Struve, he is often outmuscled and able to be battered by tight punches, which cost Struve dearly in losses to Nelson and dos Santos, and nearly did in his bout with Paul Buentello.

Fantasy Impact

I strongly dislike this match-up for Struve. While Herman didn’t dazzle in his debut, he doesn’t have a history of breaking easily, and has lots of power in his hands which makes me doubtful Struve can last 15 minutes against him. If Struve is to win, it will likely come by way of an early submission so take him in round one with the tap. In fantasy betting Struve is a +100, slightly less payoff than the Vegas books, and I’d advise against playing on the Dutchman in any form.

Dave Herman analysis after the jump.

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The fourth bout of the UFC on Fuel TV debut broadcast sees Aaron Simpson welcoming Ronny Markes to the middleweight division after the Brazilian was victorious in his debut with the UFC at light heavyweight.

Aaron Simpson

A former Division-I wrestler at Arizona State University, Simpson is a member of the Power MMA Team, alongside fellow ASU wrestling alum C.B. Dolloway and Ryan Bader. A former WEC middleweight, Simpson is one of the rare upper weight class fighters still hanging around from the blue cage days.

Recent Fights

Simpson entered the UFC at 5-0, and quickly strung together three straight wins on the big stage. Simpson appeared on the verge of cracking the top of the division as he easily won the first round of his fourth UFC fight against Chris Leben before tiring in the second and losing by TKO. In his next fight Simpson dropped a unanimous decision to Mark Munoz and suddenly found himself fighting for his UFC job. With his back against the wall Simpson has rebounded with three straight victories and is now in position to again make a run for the top of the division.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Simpson was a two-time All-American at Arizona State, and as such is a very talented wrestler who has adapted those skills for use inside the Octagon. As with Miocic in the bout before this, Simpson uses his wrestling primarily as a defensive tool. While Simpson isn’t a pure boxer, he is more than capable of landing more than he is hit on the feet, and has power in his fists, having earned six of his victories by way of knock out. Simpson also showed in his victory over Brad Tavares that he will not hesitate to switch to a grinding style if he feels his opponent poses a threat on the feet.

Fantasy Impact

Neither fighter has odds prohibitively high, or chances prohibitively low, to discourage placing some fantasy coin down on them if you favor them to win. For Simpson on a straight-picking front, the American will most likely be hoping to stay at range and throw bombs until he puts Markes away, so take a second round TKO victory.

Ronny Markes analysis after the jump.

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The third bout on the UFC on Fuel debut show is an old-school style vs. style pairing, as a pair of undefeated heavyweights throw down. Who will come out on top, the golden gloves boxer with a wrestling pedigree, Stipe Miocic, or the submission-savvy Phil de Fries?

Stipe Miocic

Miocic is an undefeated prospect who has shown a great deal of finishing ability, which means in a sparse division like heavyweight is only a few strong showings away from finding himself at the top of the division. With a chance on the main card, even on a Fuel show, Miocic is being given the opportunity to take another step along that path.

Recent Fights

Miocic began his career with a run of five consecutive knockout victories, three of which came in the first round and all which were finished within the opening seven minutes of the bout. Miocic's sixth win, his fifth under the NAAFS banner, came by way of a submission, but given that submission was a result of his opponent deciding "enough of this crap," when Miocic insisted on repeatedly kicking him in the leg, it was yet another example of his dangerous stand-up. For his octagon debut Miocic faced off with the durable Joey Beltran and after a brutal fifteen minute slugfest had his hand raised for a unanimous decision victory.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Miocic is a fighter who employs the old school wrestle boxing style of fighting. A former Division-I wrestler, Miocic was nationally ranked during his time at Cleveland State. In addition to his wrestling, Miocic is a golden gloves boxer, and as a result likes to employ his wrestling defensively, forcing his opponents to stay on the feet where Miocic is more than happy and capable of dealing devastating offense. Against Beltran, however, he also showed he could mix in offensive wrestling if the fight merits it, though against de Fries this is unlikely. Miocic's submission defense has not been tested in his career, however, and facing a strong submission grappler he will likely be hoping his wrestling is strong enough that the same can be said after the fight as well.

Fantasy Impact

If Miocic is able to keep this fight on the feet for any extended period of time, it's going to be lights out for de Fries. Count on Miocic's wrestling to be superior and take Miocic to win by a first round knock out of de Fries. On the fantasy betting side, Miocic is a -240. while the line is much better than what the sports books offer, unless you already have a massive roll at mid-season and are looking for steady growth, you're unlikely to be pouring much money into a -240 fighter due to the "go big or go home" nature of fantasy betting in a season format.

Philip de Fries analysis after the jump.

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Reblogged from JustBlogGuy.

The main event of XFC 16 saw a pair of Zuffa-veteran lightweights both looking to take another step back toward the big leagues as Drew Fickett took on Jamie Varner. The bout held extra intrigue as Varner began his career training with Fickett before the relationship soured, culminating with a series of videos by Fickett which mocked Varner in the lead up to the fight.

Fickett came to the cage with permanent marker stars, a play on Varner’s star tattoos, still on his chest, however it was Varner who had the last laugh as a straight right dropped Fickett just seconds into the bout. Fickett tried to fight on but Varner was relentless, soliciting a tap to strikes at the forty second mark.

After the fight, the two embraced, and HDNet microphones picked up Varner telling Fickett, "I wouldn’t be here if it wasn’t for you."

Varner remained thankful after the fight as he spoke with Pate Miletich.

"Drew Fickett is the guy that got me into this sport," Varner said. "I was a junior in college and I went to a fight [of Drew’s], and he was a wrestler who was well rounded and had all this heart. I looked up to him even before I knew him.

"He took me under his wing and introduced me to Trevor Lally. I love the guy and I wouldn’t be here if it wasn’t for him."

Although Varner entered the bout confident, it did not come without butterflies.

"I was scared," Varner said. "He was my teacher. Even though I thought I was better than him – I knew I was better – he taught me.

"The right hand was the gameplan. It was a combination of timing, opportunity and luck, and I took it."

The win improved Varner to 19-6-1, while dropping Fickett’s record to 41-17.

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With the recent addition of a sixth fight to the Fuel broadcast, this bout between TJ Dillashaw and Walel Watson is no longer the first ever main card fight on Fuel, but the stakes for the fighters outside of being the first ever Fuel winner remain the same as both men look to bounce back from difficult defeats in their last outings.

TJ Dillashaw

Dillashaw came into the UFC by way of The Ultimate Fighter 14 where he was picked to be a member of Team Bisping. Training out of the Alpha Male Fight Team, perhaps the strongest camp in the world for lighter weight fighters, Dillashaw is looking to follow in the footsteps of teammates Urijah Faber, Chad Mendes and Joseph Benevidez and prove he is among the best in the business.

Recent Fights

Dillashaw has only five official bouts in his professional career, having wrung up a 4-0 record with three stoppages prior to entering The Ultimate Fighter house. Although Dillshaw was pegged as an early favorite, he rubbed many of his housemates the wrong way when he seemed to do his best to get the easiest possible route to the finale. While a smart way to approach the taxing process of moving through the six-week-long, sixteen fighter bracket, his teammates saw it as ducking. None-the-less, Dillashaw lived up to the hype by racking up three straight wins to earn his spot in the final. Unfortunately for Dillashaw, in the final he took on John Dodson, the man he was accused of dodging, and despite a size advantage over the now-flyweight, Dillashaw was knocked out in under two minutes.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Like many of his Alpha Male counterparts, Dillashaw has a base in wrestling, having attended Division-I Cal. State Fullerton. By getting hitched to such a talented camp, Dillashaw has put himself in prime position to round out the rest of his game, however he is still a work in progress. Although Dillashaw showed the ability in his early fights and his time in the house to outwork and finish lesser opponents, against more skill opposition his best route to victory still remains in dragging his foe to the ground and grinding away to a dominant decision.

Fantasy Impact

Dillashaw will most likely be looking to take this fight to the mat early and often. Once there, Watson has seven submission wins and hasn't been tapped since his debut, so don't look for the American to hit him with anything he hasn't seen on that front. Instead, bank on three rounds of Dillashaw sitting on top of Watson and throwing elbows and punches to earn the unanimous decision. As a -210 favorite, Dillashaw is the type of fighter that is hard to provide any fantasy betting value beyond potentially the lone safe play in a parlay with two large underdogs.

Walel Watson analysis after the jump.

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Reblogged from JustBlogGuy

In the main event of UFC 143, Nick Diaz spent 25 minutes walking down Carlos Condit, who spent the majority of those minutes circling off the cage, then landing more strikes than Diaz when the action was in the center of the cage. While just looking at stats alone does not tell the story of a fight, one look at the FightMetric numbers shows that Condit landed more strikes than Diaz in four of five rounds in a fight which only saw ground fighting in the final minute. Naturally when the decision came down in Diaz’s favor, fans were treated to the most predictable of outcomes. Diaz was irate at the decision, and used his mic time to point out Carlos didn’t fight and the sport of MMA is a joke, before letting it be known he was taking his ball and going home forever.

The reaction from Diaz at the end of the fight was as sure as a sunrise, and unfortunately so too was the interview Cesar Gracie gave to Ariel Helwani in which he steadfastly asserted that Diaz won and everyone knows it but the corrupt judges.

[All the judges] had him losing the first round, and two of the judges had him losing the second round. At that point there’s nothing we can do. If Nick would have had the same fight — if he’d fought like the first round the whole way through he still would have lost. If you think about that, that’s amazing.

…

I think they think he is disrespectful and they are going to find a way to judge against him. I don’t think Nick can get a fair fight in Las Vegas. I think that, in my opinion, the judges there don’t like Nick. He talks in the ring. At one point Carlos was running and he slapped in the face and said "quit running."

That is a problem. A few weeks ago I discussed Anthony Johnson and how he refuses to learn from his mistakes when it comes to making weight, both by repeatedly making the error then continuing to blow off the mistakes like they are no big deal. In the case of the Diaz brothers it’s the same story, just with a slightly different title. Time and time again Nate and Nick run through opponents who play into their "we come to fight" game, and time and time again the first time somebody doesn’t oblige by standing in the pocket and letting the damage absorbed slowly pile up it’s because they’re a coward who came to play points, not fight like men, and the game is a bunch of horse shit. And you know what, that’s a perfectly acceptable attitude for a fighter to have, just as long as he’s content never being a champion. But the Diaz brothers want to be the best, and aren’t shy of letting it out they think that they are, and if either ever wants to truly be able to make that claim it’s become clear at this point somebody from without the duo needs to drive home that just coming to fight won’t always be enough. MMA isn’t a barfight, it’s a sport, and every sport has rules. The rules of MMA say that if your opponent can put you on your back and punch you from on top, or can stay outside your range, hammer your legs, and throw more strikes while landing with a higher accuracy than you, you are not going to win that round. Lose more rounds than you win and you lost the fight. Sorry, but "look at his face," isn’t a recognized scoring method. Gracie could not conceive of a way the judges had scored the first round for Condit beyond fraud, despite the fact many, many, many, many, many MMA experts saw the round the exact same way the judges did.

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Reblogged from JustBlogGuy

In the main event of UFC 143, Nick Diaz spent 25 minutes walking down Carlos Condit, who spent the majority of those minutes circling off the cage, then landing more strikes than Diaz when the action was in the center of the cage. While just looking at stats alone does not tell the story of a fight, one look at the FightMetric numbers shows that Condit landed more strikes than Diaz in four of five rounds in a fight which only saw ground fighting in the final minute. Naturally when the decision came down in Diaz’s favor, fans were treated to the most predictable of outcomes. Diaz was irate at the decision, and used his mic time to point out Carlos didn’t fight and the sport of MMA is a joke, before letting it be known he was taking his ball and going home forever.

The reaction from Diaz at the end of the fight was as sure as a sunrise, and unfortunately so too was the interview Cesar Gracie gave to Ariel Helwani in which he steadfastly asserted that Diaz won and everyone knows it but the corrupt judges.

[All the judges] had him losing the first round, and two of the judges had him losing the second round. At that point there’s nothing we can do. If Nick would have had the same fight — if he’d fought like the first round the whole way through he still would have lost. If you think about that, that’s amazing.

…

I think they think he is disrespectful and they are going to find a way to judge against him. I don’t think Nick can get a fair fight in Las Vegas. I think that, in my opinion, the judges there don’t like Nick. He talks in the ring. At one point Carlos was running and he slapped in the face and said "quit running."

That is a problem. A few weeks ago I discussed Anthony Johnson and how he refuses to learn from his mistakes when it comes to making weight, both by repeatedly making the error then continuing to blow off the mistakes like they are no big deal. In the case of the Diaz brothers it’s the same story, just with a slightly different title. Time and time again Nate and Nick run through opponents who play into their "we come to fight" game, and time and time again the first time somebody doesn’t oblige by standing in the pocket and letting the damage absorbed slowly pile up it’s because they’re a coward who came to play points, not fight like men, and the game is a bunch of horse shit. And you know what, that’s a perfectly acceptable attitude for a fighter to have, just as long as he’s content never being a champion. But the Diaz brothers want to be the best, and aren’t shy of letting it out they think that they are, and if either ever wants to truly be able to make that claim it’s become clear at this point somebody from without the duo needs to drive home that just coming to fight won’t always be enough. MMA isn’t a barfight, it’s a sport, and every sport has rules. The rules of MMA say that if your opponent can put you on your back and punch you from on top, or can stay outside your range, hammer your legs, and throw more strikes while landing with a higher accuracy than you, you are not going to win that round. Lose more rounds than you win and you lost the fight. Sorry, but "look at his face," isn’t a recognized scoring method. Gracie could not conceive of a way the judges had scored the first round for Condit beyond fraud, despite the fact many, many, many, many, many MMA experts saw the round the exact same way the judges did.

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UFC 143 is live on Pay-Per-View tonight, and with picks locking at 2 PM EST, it's getting close to lock-in time. As usual, Ben and myself are here to offer you are last-minute looks at the main event, the best underdog options and the safest plays on the card.

Who you taking in the main event?

Ben: Nick Diaz and Carlos Condit locked inside a cage for twenty-five minutes should be a main event for the ages. But what if it’s not? A referee screw job or early doctor stoppage would certainly dampen the consensus expectations that this will be a fight of the year candidate. Both Diaz and Condit are known for their superhuman ability to rally after eating damaging shots. With Steve Mazzagatti refereeing anything is possible, just ask Brock Lesnar. Let’s get serious, the likelihood of either scenario happening is slim to none, and slim just left town, so we should be able to enjoy an epic UFC main event on Saturday.

Both fighters are highly experienced while still relatively young and entering their athletic prime at ages 27 and 28 for Condit and Diaz respectively. Diaz is the moderate favorite and the fighter almost everyone wants to see fight Georges St. Pierre down the road. Carlos Condit is looking to spoil the UFC’s good fortunes and book his own date with "Rush".

While I am a huge Carlos Condit fan, I think Diaz takes this fight. Since underwhelming me with his pedestrian five-round fight against KJ Noons in October 2010, Nick Diaz has really put together his MMA game with impressive wins over "Cyborg", "Semtex", and "The Prodigy." Diaz can throw a hundred punches a round and not get tired—that’s pretty nuts. And if Condit gets tired of being punched and looks for a takedown, Diaz off his back is equally skilled and capbale of finishing the fight even against a stud like Condit.

Ben’s pick: Nick Diaz by decision as he lands 375 strikes.

Bobby: Ever since this fight was announced I knew that Diaz would be a betting favorite, and that he possesses both the better jiu jitsu and a set of striking skills which will see him almost certainly land more strikes than Condit. And yet, since this fight was announced, I just can't shake the thought that Condit is going to take this fight. Part of Diaz's boxing prowess in MMA is the ability to stand his ground and fire off his barrage of punches, knowing that he possesses a chin which requires a button shot to rock it, and quick recovery skills when the button is found. This has done Diaz well of late, however it is a risky proposition when fighting an opponent of Condit's caliber. "The Natural Born Killer" is a dangerous striker who has shut off the lights of his last three opponents with everything from an accumulated beating to a single devastating hook, and finally a flying knee. Condit will likely begin to wear down in the championship rounds, but he will have plenty of time before then to put Diaz on queer street, and if he does, Condit is not one to allow an opponent any time to get his wits about him.

Bobby's pick: Carlos Condit by TKO.

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The main-event of Saturday's UFC 143 card sees Nick Diaz and Carlos Condit vying for the interim UFC welterweight title. Both men have been scheduled to face Georges St. Pierre for the proper welterweight strap, twice so for Diaz, but injuries to the champ have left the belt on the sideline and brought about the interim belt, with St. Pierre even going so far as to say he is no longer the true champion and that no man can be until he fights the interim holder to unify.

Nick Diaz

Diaz is one of the most uniquely entertaining personalities in the sport. A fighter with admitted anxiety problems, Diaz is prone to all kinds of interesting foibles, ranging from skipping out on pressers, to taking part in post fight brawls to talking about respect for his opponent and a complete lack of respect for his opponent all within the same paragraph. Inside the cage, Diaz lives up to his entertaining out-of-cage antics, having won titles in multiple second tier organizations.

Recent Fights

Diaz is on an eleven fight winning streak, with the majority of those victories coming in Strikeforce. Diaz knocked out Marius Zaromskis to win the Strikeforce welterweight title, and after a one-fight detour in Dream, decisioned KJ Noons to avenge his last defeat, then earned consecutive stoppages over Cyborg Santos and Paul Daley. With GSP having run short of challengers in the UFC, Diaz's belt was vacated and he was slotted to fight GSP to find the world's true #1. Then Diaz decided a mandatory press conference was optional. Then he did so again. That proved one too many times, and Condit was moved up to take his place, while Diaz was then pegged to replace Condit in the co-main event against BJ Penn. When St. Pierre was then injured, Diaz and Penn became the main event, and Diaz dominated Penn in the last two rounds to take a unanimous decision.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Diaz is one of the most versatile fighters in the sport, capable of overwhelming his opponents on the feet or on the ground with a constant-attack style. On the mat, Diaz is a black belt in Cesar Gracie jiu jitsu, having most-famously used his skills to submit Takanori Gomi with a gogoplata. Primarily Diaz's jiu jitsu often serves as a deterrent to going to the ground for his opponent, allowing Diaz to stay upright despite not having great takedown defense. On the feet Diaz is tough as nails, allowing him to stay in the pocket and keep throwing punches at an incredibly high rate. Rather than digging hard into his blows, Diaz prefers to constantly pepper his opponent with less-tiring blows while picking and choosing the occasional hard dig, wearing down his opponent while remaining fresh to keep throwing for the entire fight.

Fantasy Impact

Despite his top-level grappling skills, Diaz is unlikely to be looking to take this fight to the ground. Instead, look for Diaz to remain on the feet and keep peppering Condit with punches in an effort of wearing his opponent down to a TKO victory. Diaz is at a power disadvantage, but if he can drag the fight into the late rounds, his accumulation should do its job with a fourth round TKO. Diaz's odds of -170 are getting a bit on the high side to be finding big money value on, but if you are going for the high-risk parlay of Starks-Pierce-Safe then Diaz is an excellent safe pick, and can also be used for a lower-risk parlay with a couple other fighters from the close fights if you already have a large fantasy bankroll and are looking to simply steadily increase it.

Carlos Condit analysis after the jump.

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The co-main event of Saturday's UFC 143 features Fabricio Werdum returning to the UFC and attempting to secure his place in the division at the expense of Roy Nelson. Both men are capable in both phases of the game, meaning this fight could be over quickly.

Roy Nelson

Nelson is the third TUF-alum to make an appearance on the main card of UFC 143, but despite high expectations of both Josh Koscheck and Ed Herman on their seasons, was the only one of the three to claim the giant glass trophy. Nelson is perhaps most famous for his look, with a large gut that Nelson is adamant is both useful and does not harm his cardio in any way, "Big Country" often celebrates his victories by giving that big belly a good rubbing.

Recent Fights

After claiming the International Fight League heavyweight title, Nelson was given a spot on The Ultimate Fighter 10, most famous as the season with Kimbo Slice. Nelson dominated Kimbo on his path to the finals, where he knocked out Brandon Schaub to claim the TUF crown. Nelson followed up by knocking out Stefan Struve in a fight which saw the fighters spending more time standing in the cage with the lights out due to a power loss than time spent fighting each other. The wins earned Nelson consecutive bouts against current champion Junior Dos Santos, then former champion Frank Mir, and while Nelson showed impressive durability, both were dominant defeats. Nelson got back on the good side of .500 with a third round TKO of Mirko Filipovic in his most recent fight.

Strengths and Weaknesses

While Nelson appears at first glance to be your run-of-the-mill rolly-polly heavyweight who is around more for his durability than his skill set, the big man proves looks can be deceiving. Although Nelson is no doubt able to withstand a pounding without saying uncle, he also possesses dangerous skills to threaten those outside of the division's elite. On the feet, while not a threat to chain together combinations for fifteen minutes, Nelson hits hard and can shut off an opponent's lights quite capably when he finds the button. On the mat Nelson is a dangerous grappler, adept at using his large body to provide pressure and make things difficult when working from on top.

Fantasy Impact

Although Nelson is an accomplished grappler in his own right, Werdum is an ADCC world champion. While the recent Frank Mir vs. Big Nog showdown proved you can never say never in MMA, it's a safe bet that if Big Country is taking this fight it will be because of his work on the feet. Werdum is hard to knock out, but Nelson hits hard, so if you're backing the underdog, take a knockout victory early in the fight. In two of this week's prior entries I mentioned the value of the card's seven close fights (where no fighter is more than +/- 170) particularly in parlays. This is one such fight, though Big Country is offering slightly worse odds at the books as, though still a dog at -105, the pros put the gap wide enough that Nelson has a plus-sign before his number.

Fabricio Werdum analysis after the jump.

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The swing bout on the UFC 143 broadcast sees perennial contender Josh Koscheck taking on Mike Pierce, a fighter who has often knocked on the door to elite status but has not yet been granted access. Koscheck will be extra motivated by the prospect of the interim belt made in champion Georges St. Pierre's absence, as a shot at GSP's belt is much less likely than a crack at the interim strap.

Josh Koscheck

One of the most divisive fighters in the UFC, Koscheck is a firm believer in "love me or hate me, as long as you watch me." Due to a stint on the inaugural season of The Ultimate Fighter in which Koscheck was one of the prime villains, most notably setting off Chris Leben's melt down by soaking Leben with a hose when the latter had elected to sleep outside to avoid confrontation that night, most fans fall on the "hate me" side of the spectrum.

Recent Fights

Koscheck sits at 4-1 in his last five fights, rebounding from a 1-2 run, unfortunately for Koscheck that one loss came to the champion and not in a way that has the afro'ed one overly close to a title shot for Georges St. Pierre's belt when the champion is healthy and unites with the interim champion. Koscheck won three straight bouts to earn his title shot, knocking out Frank Trigg, submitting Anthony Johnson and decisioning Paul Daley. After a season as coaches on The Ultimate Fighter, Kos and GSP fought before a partisan Canadian crowd, and Koscheck became intimately familiar with GSP's lead jab. After a long injury layoff to allow his broken orbital to heal, Kos returned against former champion Matt Hughes, earning the TKO win late in the first round.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Like his AKA teammate Jon Fitch, Koscheck's primary weapon is his wrestling, and he debuted on the big stage as a one-dimensional fighter looking to take every fight to the canvas as soon as possible. In recent years Kos has worked hard on his striking, occasionally to his detriment as his last three losses have all come about with Koscheck being beaten on the feet, including a crushing KO loss to Paulo Thiago. When Koscheck is looking to get the fight to the ground, there remain few fighters in the division better at getting in on an opponent and forcing the issue. Kos has not shown an overly dynamic submission grappling game, with his only wins by submission holds coming with rear naked chokes against ground-challenged or generally overmatched opposition.

Fantasy Impact

Make no mistake about it, this fight is much closer than the fantasy odds would have you believe. At -600 in fantasy betting, Koscheck is simply unplayable in any form. Don't waste your money on it. For fantasy picking, Koscheck is however still a rightful favorite. If Koscheck's striking is more on point than Pierce's on Saturday, he has proven he has the ability to hit hard and finish a fight, so take Koscheck to win by a second round TKO.

Mike Pierce analysis after the jump.

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Although it's usually the opening bout on a pay-per-view where you see a pair of exciting lighter weight fighters squaring up, for UFC 143 it's the two-hole that sees a match up of bantamweights that is sure to deliver fast-paced action. Renan Barão puts one of the longest winning streaks in the world on the line against Scott Jorgensen, with the winner of the fight potentially finding themselves just one or two wins from a shot at the winner of Dominick Cruz and Urijah Faber's UFC bantamweight title fight.

Renan Barão

Like many of the UFC's lighter weight fighters, Barão was once a WEC fighter. Though not as tenured as his opponent within the organization, Barão has quickly made a mark on the division and now the Nova União fighter knows he is not far from having the chance to bring a second UFC belt home to his gym, to display alongside that of Featherweight champion Jose Aldo.

Recent Fights

After tasting the oh-so-close pain of losing a split decision in his professional debut, Barão has gone 28 consecutive fights without having to again come to grips with defeat. Barão has fought for Zuffa four times, with a pair of wins in both the WEC and Zuffa. Barão's UFC debut came against Cole Escovedo, and Barão handed in a dominant performance in winning the fight by unanimous decision. For a follow up act, Barão faced Brad Pickett at UFC 138 in Birmingham. While the British crowd was strongly pro-Pickett, Barão played spoiler by choking out the Brit in the final minute of the opening stanza.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Barão is a Brazilian jiu jitsu blackbelt, and has the submissions on his record to prove it. Just shy of half the men who have stepped into the cage to face Barão have left after finding their neck or a limb pulled in a new and exciting direction by the Brazilian. In addition to his dangerous grappling game, however, Barão is also a very capable striker. While many expected Barão to have the grappling edge against Pickett, it was on the feet that Barão did the majority of his work, outstriking the striker before dropping his opponent to get the fight to the mat and set up the decisive choke.

Fantasy Impact

Barão is the favorite in this fight, and for good reason. No matter where the fight goes, he will be a handful for Jorgensen. While he has the more distinct advantage on the feet, Barão is the type of fighter who won't hesitate to hurt you on the feet as a set-up to a submission, locking a hold on his wounded foe. Jorgensen is a game fighter, but take Barão to win by a second round submission after hurting Jorgensen standing. Barão is also a fantastic option in your parlays, or as a small return bet who will stop just shy of doubling your money for a straight wager. While lack of familiarity with Barão by the casual fan has this line close in the fantasy game, Barão is favored nearly as much as Ed Herman and Josh Koscheck on the Vegas books, both of whom are more than -400 favorites on MMA Playground.

Scott Jorgensen analysis after the jump.

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The opening bout of Saturday's UFC 143 pay-per-view sees The Ultimate Fighter 3 runner-up Ed Herman looking to continue his winning return from a knee injury as he takes on Arizona Combat Sports wrestler Clifford Starks. With a third straight win Herman can put himself on the cusp of the upper tier, while Starks can firmly establish himself in the UFC by defeating the seasoned veteran.

Ed Herman

Recent Fights

Herman hit a rough patch in his UFC career beginning with a submission loss to Demian Maia (remember him? He was a guy who used to do jiu jitsu!) and a decision to Alan Belcher. After bouncing back with a win over David Loiseau, any momentum left over from the defeat of "The Crow" was out the window when Herman blew out his knee against Aaron Simpson. After a layoff of nearly two years following the injury, many wondered what to expect of Herman in his return. Herman has looked great, however, scoring a quick KO of Tim Credeur, and following up with a brutal heel hook against Kyle Noke.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Herman is an interesting fighter in that the majority of his wins and the majority of his losses have both come by way of submissions. While at first blush that reeks of a risky ground fighter, equally adept at catching an opponent in a scramble as he is at getting caught, a closer look tells a more accurate story. All of Herman's submission losses have come to very strong submission grapplers. Herman is a dangerous fighter on the ground when not facing a top-level grappler, and with no submissions since his debut, Starks is unlikely to scare Herman from a submission perspective.

Fantasy Impact

Herman is the more complete fighter in this bout and also the more likely fighter to get a finish against his opponent. While Starks' striking against Jacoby didn't show much that will have Herman shaking in his boots, the former Arizona State wrestler was able to score a takedown and control the fight on the mat in all three rounds, meaning Herman may need to fight off his back for a submission or sweep to take control. Take Herman with a round two submission victory. On the fantasy betting side of the game stay away from Herman. At -400 he is too pricey to pay off to any worthwhile degree, and is laying far too heavy of odds to be worth betting on in a fight where being out-wrestled for three rounds remains a real possibility.

Clifford Starks analysis after the jump.

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Headlining the UFC's proper debut on broadcast television is a fight between Rashad Evans and Phil Davis which holds major ramifications for the light heavyweight title picture. If Evans is victorious and healthy he will have the next shot at Jon Jones, finally granting some closure to the saga of Evans vs. Jones. Should Davis end the broadcast with his hand raised, or if Evans wins but suffers an injury which would prevent an early summer fight, the title shot will instead be granted to Dan Henderson.

Rashad Evans

A former UFC Light Heavyweight champion, Evans became only the second non-veterans season TUF competitor to win a UFC title, having taken the belt off of the first TUF-champ turned UFC champion, Forrest Griffin. Like many of the big names to emerge from the show, Evans draws strong reactions from the fans, often of the negative variety with Evans serving as a guy people will always tune in to watch, usually in the hopes he will be defeated.

Recent Fights

While Evans is well-removed from his short reign as UFC light heavyweight champion, having won the belt more than three years ago and never defending successfully, he has had only three fights since losing the belt to Lyoto Machida. Through a combination of his own injuries and attempting to wait out injuries of the champion, Evans fought just twice in 2010 and once in 2011. After decisions over Thiago Silva and Rampage Jackson he was expected to earn a title shot with Shogun Rua, who was injured. Evans waited for the champ, only to find himself injured when the fight was finally booked. Semi-teammate Jon Jones stepped up instead to smash Rua, starting a he-said-he-said soap opera that has persisted ever since. The two were set to settle things late in 2011, however a Jones injury saw a bout with Davis booked instead. When Davis was then injured, Tito Ortiz stepped in, and Evans made short work of the former champ.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Rashad first came to prominence in the UFC as the heavyweight winner of The Ultimate Fighter 2 as a relatively one-dimensional wrestler who could take down and control opponents but wasn't wowing spectators. Evans worked hard on his striking however, eventually earning highlight reel knock outs of Sean Salmon, Chuck Liddell and Forrest Griffin, however after being made to do the stanky leg by Machida, as Rampage Jackson put it, Evans has reverted back to utilizing his primary wrestling strength more in recent bouts.

Fantasy Impact

Rashad should be the superior striker in this match-up, and while he isn't as decorated a collegiate wrestler as Davis, in the world of MMA he has shown a greater ability to use his striking to set-up the take downs. Look for Evans to try to keep the fight standing where he has the edge and work toward a TKO victory in the second round, finally setting up his grudge match with Jon Jones. As with Sonnen in the event's co-main event, while Evans seems like a relatively safe bet, at -265 the odds don't leave much room for profit.

Phil Davis analysis after the jump.

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The first fight on the UFC's official debut as a network broadcasting property features a pair of ground specialists on the fringe of the top tier of fighters looking to put their name into title talks. While Demian Maia was originally scheduled to face Michael Bisping, when Bisping was promoted to face Chael Sonnen in the broadcast's second bout, UFC matchmaker Joe Silva went to an old stand-by and dialed up a fighter from the Renzo Gracie family of schools to step in with a short camp to save the bout.

Demian Maia

A former UFC Middleweight Title challenger, Maia is a fighter who is most well known for something he hasn't fully managed to implement in almost three years. Once known as a one-dimensional fighter who was helpless on his feet, Maia's worked hard on his striking game, only to find that the submission well has dried up of late in the process.

Recent Fights

Maia made a name for himself inside the UFC by using his world-class BJJ to strangle anybody the UFC put in front of him, winning four submission of the night bonuses in five fights, however since being handed his first loss in the UFC by Nate Marquardt, Maia has yet to have a fight end early. With a record of 3-1 since losing in his title bid against Anderson Silva, Maia has taken victories over Mario Miranda, Kendall Grove and Jorge Santiago, with a loss to Mark Munoz, and has begun to show more-and-more willingness to keep fights standing and forgoing any urgency to take advantage of his grappling wizardy.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Everybody knows what Maia's primary strength in the Octagon is, even if he hasn't actually submitted an opponent in almost three years. When debating the best offensive grappler in the division, it's a very short list of defensible positions, and Maia is one of those guys. What is underrated about Maia is his ability to get the fight to the ground. In addition to a variety of tricky guard pulls, Maia's fantastic mounted triangle of Chael Sonnen was set up by tossing the division's best wrestler and landing already in position to cinch up the triangle. While striking was once considered the major hole in Maia's game, and is certainly still his weaker area, he has shown great strides in the stand-up arts, and surprised Munoz when they fought by dominating the stand up in the first frame.

Fantasy Impact

While Maia is a master on the ground, Weidman is no joke there himself. The American will have the wrestling edge, so unless Maia scores a throw or uses strikes to set up a shot it's likely any ground play will begin with Maia on his back. He is certainly talented enough to submit anyone from that position, however as fighters like Dan Miller and Mario Miranda showed, it is possible for a high-level grappler to survive on the ground with Maia, so pick the Unanimous Decision. Maia is a -100 in Playground's fantasy betting game, however he is a Vegas dog, and rightfully so, in my opinion. Maia can be used as a quick way to double your parlay value, but just isn't providing enough value for a straight bet unless you are quite positive he will win, which would make you in an extreme minority.

Chris Weidman analysis after the jump.

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