I heard Qadry Ismail talking to Soren Petro (a really good local sports broadcaster) about the Ravens on Friday. When asked about the impact of adding McKinnie to the team, the Missile had nothing but praise. Not only had McKinnie protected Flacco well this year, he had allowed the team to move Michael Oher to RT where he was more effective. He also pointed out that McKinnie had been a major part of their offensive plan starting with the first offensive play of the year--a run to the left tackle for a big gain (Q knew the yardage, but I've since forgotten it).

The Vikings clearly underestimated how much McKinnie had left in him, just like the Chiefs did with Jared Gaither (who went on to play well for the division rival Chargers after the Chiefs cut him). That begs a poll question:

I thought that  this article by Michael Lombardi was a great read, so I thought I'd share.

A few things that impressed me:

1. He says that a QB's throwing motion is no big deal.  Every QB has a different one, and only the results matter.  That's exactly the opposite viewpoint as guys like Brad Childress.

2. He says that only a few people are really qualified to evaluate QBs, so the larger the draft committee, the greater the odds of making a really bad mistake.  For the Vikings, I think this means that Bill Musgrave is possibly the only one who can evaluate the position well enough, and I hope that he was the driving force behind drafting Ponder rather than Frazier or someone else.

3. This is only tangentially related to the article, but I've seen Brian Billick spouting off about QB evaluations.  I suppose that he may have learned from his mistakes, but he failed to coach a couple of hand-picked QBs well enough in his time.  He's no Dennis Green.

5. In a roundabout way, Lombardi says that arm strength is important, but accuracy is critical.  Thankfully, the Vikings drafted a guy wiho is supposedly accurate despite lacking ideal arm strength.  I don't love this pick, but at least the potential seems to be there, along with a scary injury history.  And there were definitely impact players still on the board, 2-3 of whom had been ranked in the top five by one or more scouting services.

Thanks to this article from pro-football-reference.com, we can all learn a few things about how quarterbacks have performed in NFL playoff games.  Based on degrees of standard deviation (of rushing, OL and defensive support), some circumstances were Impossible for any QB (Dan Marino won the most nearly impossible game in which the opposing team had gained more than 150 yards more than the Dolphins did on the ground).  Some were Gimmes that any QB could have celebrated a win with his teammates.  The rest were Difficult (in which QBs won 9% of such games), Neutral (50%) or Easy (92%).  In case you haven't read the article linked in the first sentence of this paragraph, go ahead and read it now.

Taking those ideas one step further, I wondered how the lot would stack up based on actual win% - expected w%:

Former NFL QB Bill Musgrave has interviewed for the Browns' and Vikings' offensive coordinator positions.

Full uncut text:

The Minnesota Vikings, St. Louis Rams, Oakland Raiders and Cleveland Browns are among the teams still looking for an offensive coordinator after the Miami Dolphins agreed to terms with Brian Daboll and the Carolina Panthers hired Rob Chudzinski for those positions, league sources said Tuesday.

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Current offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell hasn't been let go, but the Vikings already have interviewed Josh McDaniels for the position. Atlanta Falcons quarterbacks coach Bill Musgrave will arrive in Minnesota tonight to interview, according to a league source. Musgrave will arrive in Minnesota from Cleveland, where he is interviewing for their coordinator job, the source said.

McDaniels was the first candidate interviewed by the Rams for their opening, but those talks have hit a snag, and the Rams could end up talking to Musgrave and former Vikings coach Brad Childress for their opening. League sources said it isn't out of the question that McDaniels will and with the Rams, but there are some hurdles to overcome for that to happen.

Baltimore Ravens consultant Al Saunders is a candidate to handle the Raiders' coordinating duties, with Hue Jackson now promoted to head coach. Ravens officials expect that move to happen.

NFL Network insider Michael Lombardi reported Monday that Daboll, who was Eric Mangini's offensive coordinator with the Browns, is headed to the Dolphins.

The Panthers hired Chudzinski, also a former Browns offensive coordinator. Chudzinski spent this past season as tight ends coach/assistant head coach in San Diego, where he worked with new Panthers coach Ron Rivera, who was the Chargers' defensive coordinator.

Uncut from NFL.com:

Vikings coach Leslie Frazier is determined to find Minnesota's franchise quarterback of the future this offseason, according to the Minneapolis Star Tribune on Monday.

With Brett Favre out of the picture, Frazier sees the Vikings' NFC North rivals set at quarterback, with Matthew Stafford in Detroit, and Jay Cutler's Chicago Bears set to host Aaron Rodgers' Green Bay Packers in this Sunday's NFC Championship Game.

"We've got to find a quarterback," Frazier told the newspaper. "You look at the playoff teams and none of them really have an issue at quarterback, they have their starting quarterback and most likely for years to come. We've got to find us a quarterback that we can build our franchise around, and if we do, it's going to stabilize a lot of things for our team and our organization."

Frazier sees the Bears-Packers game as indication that "we've got a lot of work ahead of us to get back to being NFC North champs. That would be two years in a row you'd have someone from the NFC North playing in the championship game."

Frazier told the Star Tribune that he has nearly finalized his coaching staff.

"We're getting close to getting some things done," he said. "I feel real good about the direction where we are and hope to have an announcement here really soon.

"We have a number of guys on our staff that are going to be with us next season that have been with us in the past, but we are going to add a few new faces at certain places. I think it'll be good for our team."

Jason La Canfora reported Sunday that former San Francisco 49ers head coach Mike Singletary is expected to reach a deal to become the Vikings' linebackers coach, according to a source who says the likelihood of Singletary joining Minnesota's staff "looks good."

* * *

The argument could also be made that the Vikings need a strong pass defense to play against the other QBs in the NFC North.  That would seem like the logical thing for a former DB as head coach to do since he has no expertise in bringing along a young QB.

NFL.com is reporting that former 49ers head coach Mike Singletary is being considered for the Vikings' linebackers coach.

Uncut text of the article:

Linebackers coach Richard Smith is following former Panthers coach John Fox to Denver, a league source said Sunday.

San Francisco 49ers coach Mike Singletary could land a job with the Carolina Panthers or Minnesota Vikings." />
Former San Francisco 49ers coach Mike Singletary could land a job with the Carolina Panthers or Minnesota Vikings. (Jeff Roberson/Associated Press)

In the mix to replace Smith in Carolina is Mike Singletary, another source indicated, although the Minnesota Vikings also are targeting the former 49ers head coach for their linebackers coach vacancy.

Singletary, a Hall of Fame linebacker, played with Vikings coach Leslie Frazier and Panthers coach Ron Rivera, and both first-time NFL coaches would like their former Chicago Bears teammate to join their staffs.

Singletary coached inside linebackers for the Baltimore Ravens in 2003 and 2004 before going to the San Francisco 49ers as an assistant coach. He became the 49ers' interim coach in 2008 after Mike Nolan was fired, then he received the full-time job after a 5-4 finish to the season.

Singletary's 49ers went 8-8 in 2009, then slumped to 5-10 this past season before the coach was fired.

* * *

(Sorry for mislabeling it the first time.  It seems like quite a step down from HC to a positional coaching job.)

Based on the top 120 single season performances by passer rating index (a.k.a. RATE+), the Vikings should not worry too much about drafting a quarterback in the first round.

Here are the top 120 seasons by NFL quarterbacks in terms of passer rating index (120 = 20% better than the average QB's passer rating that year; 115 = 15% better than the average QB's passer rating that year, and so on) from 2000 to 2009:

41 different quarterbacks produced these 120 single seasons.  41 single seasons were at least 20% better than the average passer rating in those respective years, and the other 79 were 6-19% better than average.

Overall:
41 QBs produced these 120 seasons.
56 were by QBs drafted by that team; 40 were by free agents; 24 were by trade acquisitions.
51 were at least 30 years old; 51 were 26-29 years old; only 18 were 25 or younger.
48 were first round picks, a minority.
30 played on teams that allowed more sacks than the average team (sack% index < 100).

Of the top 41:
21 QBs produced these top 41 seasons.
21 were by first round picks; 15 were by later picks; 5 were by undrafted free agents.
17 were at least 30 years old; 17 were 26-29; 7 were by QBs 25 and under.
8 played on teams that allowed more sacks than the average team.

Of the lower 79 (42nd-120th):
27 were by first round picks.
34 were at least 30 years old; 34 were 26-29; 11 were by QBs 25 and younger.
22 played on teams that had a below average sack index.

By these numbers (and not even exploring the bust rate of first round QBs), it is clear that the safer way to solve the Vikings' QB void is to acquire an existing NFL QB, either by free agency or via trade.  A majority (53%) of the top 120 were produced by a free agent or trade acquisition.  First round picks produced a minority of the top 120 QB seasons in the past 10 years.  Most telling, the veteran age groups produced the most, not some tenderfoot rookie.  The actual performance of the QB matters more than how the QB is acquired or hyped by the media, and good to excellent QBs are more likely to be found via trade and/or free agency.  Of course, we can also look at this list with some sadness as Vikings fans and see that we did have a very remarkable franchise QB not too long ago who might still be dominating today had he gotten some protection from his line and no championship or SB appearance to show for it.

Of course, there is no reason not to sign or trade for a veteran and also draft another QB.  That makes the most sense of all.

I know some are going to wonder about Super Bowl championships.  A good quarterback is only part of a Super Bowl championship.  Few would argue that Ben Roethlisberger is a franchise QB, but one of the Steelers' championships actually happened during his worst year so far.  Eli Manning has one season in the top 120, but it is not from his SB championship year.  Kurt Warner's championship was in 1999, just before the cutoff, and Favre's was in 1997, or else they would make the short list also.  Compared to an all things being equal scenario in the NFL (1 would win out of 32 exactly equal teams, or about 3%, or about a 6% chance of competing in a SB), having a QB performing at these levels greatly increases the odds of getting there to at least 10%.

May this Christmas day post bring you wisdom and peace, especially about the Vikings' QB quandary.

Although the Vikes may have a top ten draft pick in the offseason, it will not necessarily be high enough to draft a franchise QB.  Assuming that nobody falls to them and no teams are offering a trade up, which of these QBs would you like to see in Minnesota in 2011?  Unlike a draftee, these guys could start in 2011.

(Drumroll please...the list of QBs and a poll after the jump)

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With the firing of Josh McDaniels and Brad Childress behind us, I wondered if they were similar situations.  In some ways, they were not.  Brad Childress was in his 5th year while McDaniels was only in his 2nd year.  The Vikings had won a playoff game (and lost two others) during his tenure while McDaniels had not coached a playoff game in Denver (but perhaps he could have given 4+ years to do so).  Childress brought in more yes men than McDaniels, and Childress had more premium free agents and better defensive players on the roster.

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Without a doubt, the outlook is bleak.  Favre is literally limping through his last season in the NFL.  Tarvaris Jackson didn't even appear to target Randy Moss in a 2-minute drill, slid rather than run out of bounds and seemed to believe that a dump-off pass to Toby Gerhart was going to result in a touchdown with enough time left to go for an onside kick and field goal.  I guess we should be happy that he was able to identify the open guys even though they were intentionally left open because it benefitted the Patriots to do so.  The team is 2-5 and must proceed without either a star WR or a terrible coach (which may result in more power to another ineffective coach on the staff).

But there is still hope.  Learn why after the jump:

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With all of the (righfully) negative talk about the past two games and the outlook from an 0-2 start, now seems like a good time to explain how I feel about it all in the long-term since others have tried to speak for me and anyone else who might be dissatisfied and uninspired by the team's recent performance.

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How should a personnel dept. and coaching staff build a perennial playoff team in the current era?  Is it better to be run-oriented or pass happy?  Is it better to stop the run, stop the pass, or be balanced on defense?  Let's look at some data from the past 5 years of conference championship games and Super Bowls after the jump.

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If I had to narrow down my biggest complaint vs. Childress and Bevell (and Frazier to a slightly lesser extent), it would be that the Vikings' coaches seem to live in a time capsule and strategize as though the NFL were a run-heavy league.  It is not a run-heavy league.  It is a pass-heavy league, mostly due to rule changes in the past 6-10 years.  In 2009, the 2 most dominant teams were the Saints and Colts, and both were pass-happy teams.  8 of the teams with the 12 best pass defenses by passer rating allowed were playoff teams, and 2 of the top 3 advanced as far as the conference championship games.  Conversely, only 6 of the top 12 rushing teams from 2009 played in the postseason.  The Vikings were 13th in rushing yards and 8th in passing yards in 2009--a possible sign that the coaches had finally learned something--and with so many clear signs in front of them that a run-heavy offense and a run-stopping defense was not likely to win a Super Bowl in today's NFL, I had high hopes for this season.

The Saints' first play was a pass from the shotgun formation, a crystal clear sign that they understand that the NFL is a pass-heavy league.  4 plays later (including only 1 incomplete pass and 1 rushing play), the Saints were in the end zone.  I told myself that there was plenty of time left, as many other fans did.

"Surely the Vikings will pass at least once on this series, " I said to my brother.  Nope: Run RT for 3; Run RT for 5; Run LG for -1 when it was 3rd and 2.  That script must have been borrowed from 2006 when the Vikings must have had some of the worst playcalling in the history of the NFL.

Here are some relevant stats:
+ In 2009, the Vikings produced 5 more runs of 10+ yards than they did runs of 0 or negative yards.
- Last night, the Vikings produced only 2 runs of 10+ yards and 5 runs of 0 or negative yards, or -8 worse than 2009.
- Last year, the Vikings "only" allowed a passer rating of 92.5 (good for 27th).
- Last night, the Vikings allowed a passer rating of 101.3 (would have ranked 31st).
- The Vikings ran the ball about as often as the Saints, who were protecting a lead most of the game.

Kevin Siefert cited several more key stats in today's article.  To sum them up:
+ The Saints had never scored so few points under Sean Payton (although the Saints had nearly scored 6-17 more points and intercepted Favre more than once).
- The Vikings went 3-and-out (or 3 plays and an INT) on 5 of their 10 possessions (3 of the 3-and-outs were in the 5 2nd half possessions).
- Favre's passer rating was twice as bad as it had been in last year's NFCCG.
- Peterson produced what he did vs. favorable defensive fronts.
- The Saints made an adjustment that limited Shank to only 2 passes his way and no catches in the 2nd half (not to mention holding the Vikings scoreless in the 2nd half).
- The Vikings do not have the cupcake schedule that they had last season.

Sure, the Vikings may have merely been rusty in a few spots, but the coaches appeared to have learned nothing.  They will still be in charge after the rust falls off.

The Arizona Cardinals cut Matt Leinart today in the wake of Leinart's public frustration about being a backup again, especially to Derek Anderson.  While it's true that Leinart's career passer rating is better than Derek Anderson's, Leinart has done little else to suggest he's a starter...unless he were to sign with Minnesota, learn this year, and replace Favre next year.

Why Minnesota?

PROS: In this preseason, Leinart has completed 70% of his passes.  SEVENTY percent!  We've all heard Chilly talk about how high-percentage passes are the key to the much fabled KAO, and I presume that he meant something closer to 70% than 57%.  Some would say that Leinart is a proven winner who just needs a chance, so give that as much or little credit as you will.  Leinart is also a lefty, which means that he is supposedly tapping into the creative side of his brain more often than most.  It would mean that McKinnie and Hutchinson could continue to be the run side of the line while upgrading the RG to more of a pass pro position and hoping that Loadholt can stop of the premier pass rushers.

CONS: His preseason yards per attempt is about 4, often behind the line of scrimmage.  OK, the first part of that is a con, but the second half is a pro to Chilly and Bevell, who believe that the answer is always to throw short of the 1st down marker on 3rd downs at least 80% of the time.  And anyone who has failed to beat former Pro Bowler Derek Anderson for a starting job may be able to beat TJ, but do we really want that?

This originally appeared on the Vikings' official site (By Mike Wobschall, vikings.com Posted Aug 20, 2010):

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From the day that Sidney Rice was drafted with a second round pick to a team that badly needed help at wide receiver, expectations have been high.  He didn't get off to a great start, though.  In his first two seasons, he caught 46 passes for 537 yards.  Even Todd Pinkston surpassed those receptions or yardage totals in 4 consecutive individual seasons.  Worse yet, Rice's production had fallen off along a downward trend.

Then Brett Favre arrived in town.  Guns were slung, games were won and suddenly Sidney was skyrocketing into the top tier of NFL wide receivers.  Despite his relatively high average yards per reception, he rarely had much separation from the defender(s) on any of the 83 receptions.  

What will come of Sidney Rice after Favre retires?  Will he still be unsung and for real, or a one-and-done deal?

Peter Schrager has posted a new feature on Fox Sports with his ranking of the top 100 players for 2010.  No Seahawks, Chiefs, Bills or Buccaneers made that list.

Pro-Football-Reference.com's ranking of the top 100 players in 2009 by Approximate Value can be viewed here for comparison. 

Schrager didn't list Vikings OT Bryant McKinnie in his top 100.  He was one of the honorable mentions.  McKinnie was 58th on the AV list, two spots behind Percy Harvin, who barely made Schrager's list.  A total of 8 Vikings made the AV list.

How Adrian L. Peterson compares to Darrelle Revis

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In my last post, I examined second year quarterbacks' Approximate Values (and explained and linked to other sources about AV).  I had arbitrarily set a standard of 10 AV for a good season.  Was that standard too high?  This post will take a look at which QBs have had 4 or more 10 AV seasons and whether a rookie can do it.

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2007 was a uniquely exciting time to be a fan of both the Minnesota Vikings (I'm a native Minnesotan) and the Kansas City Chiefs (where I've resided for the past decade plus).  Tarvaris Jackson, hailed as the next Donovan McNabb by Vikings coach Brad Childress, became the Vikings' starting QB while Brodie Croyle, the top-rated QB in the nation coming out of high school who had put together a fine senior season after finally staying healthy, was poised to take over the starting role for the Chiefs.  Of course, we all know how that worked out.  Jackson only started 12 games due to injury, and Croyle managed to start half as many games.  Both posted unspectacular passer ratings right around 70, and neither has started 10+ games in a season since.  Ever since that year, I have wondered how other second year starting quarterbacks had fared, what percent of second year quarterbacks went on to produce at least one good or better season as a starter and what percentage of second year starting QBs who produced later started off similarly or worse or better than Tarvaris Jackson.  The rest of this post will compare the Approximate Values of 114 second year starting QBs in three tiers, partly to see how closely AV correlates with quality and partly to gain some perspective into the question of whether Tarvaris Jackson is likely to become a quality starter and when, if so, based on similarities to his peers over the years.

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I was pleased to see that the Vikings considered CB enough of an area of need to draft one with their first pick, but of course they let the guy with the best man-to-man skills go in the process.  In the meantime, teams with great pass defenses like the Jets had gobbled up the last really good CBs on the board.  I was sure that the Vikings were going to shore up the position with 2 CBs and the future with a QB like Tony Pike, but that didn't happen, either.

Here are some trends during the Childress era worth thinking about:

Passer rating allowed rank:
2006: 5th
2007: 23rd
2008: 16th
2009: 27th

Defensive turnovers rank:
2006: 3rd
2007: 9th
2008: 15th
2009: 23rd

Passing yards allowed:
2006: 31st
2007: 32nd
2008: 18th
2009: 19th

Playoff games:
2006: none
2007: none
2008: 0-1
2009: 1-1
total: 1-2 (roughly equivalent to 5-11)

The truth is that the team hasn’t had anything resembling an all-around good to great D since Mike Tomlin was employed (except for yards allowed, which we'll look at more closely soon).  A better D vs. the pass in the past 2 years could have meant a winning record in the playoffs, including a SB win.

How much do those trends matter?  How does passer rating allowed matter compared to defensive turnovers or passing yards?  Let's look at the last 2 years of playoff games.

In the last 22 playoff games, defensive turnovers were the best predictors of the victors while the better rated passer won a little more than 3/4 of the time.  The team with the most passing yards won only half the time which is to say that passing yardage is completely irrelevant.

Chris Cook had better be good.  Not just better than Cedric Griffin good, but really, really good.

According to Yahoo, star RB LaDainian Tomlinson left the Vikings without a deal and will visit the Jets today.

(Full article after the jump)

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First of all, let me be clear that I don't hold this opinion because the Vikings lost in the NFC Championship game, but because of how and why they lost.  Truly great NFL coaches do not preside over games like this one.

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This was the 2nd game out of the last 3 that the Vikings lost badly to teams who were in the playoffs last year.

What do the Minnesota Vikings need?  I don't know the entire answer, but it probably ends with something like this:

...
5 golden linemen
4 defensive backs
3 field goals
2 quarterbacks
...and new coaches from a different tree.

But in all seriousness, when will this organization wake up and realize that their guys in the secondary can't cover anybody?  Does it get worse than Matt Moore torching the team to the tune of a 120+ rating with 3 TDs and 0 INTs (his INT% had been unbelievably high in his career before last night's game).

I know there are lots of Chilly lovers and Chilly apologists out there, but further denial about the state of the secondary will become a firable offense, and the inability to game plan against Matt Moore is already a big strike against him.  He couldn't take Favre out of the game after he had decided to do it, so who IS coaching this team?

Brad Childress is probably better as a stewardess than as a Santa because he gave Vikings fans a lump of coal for the week of Christmas.  Thankfully, there could be a win in January instead, but given how few games the Panthers had won this year and how little @ss The Great Matt Moore had kicked in his career until he met Childress's, Frazier's and Bevell's Vikings, I will mail in my interest in the team until the playoffs.  I can't say for certain whether the coaches are doing all-time worst jobs or if the players are apparently mailing in the end of the season, but nothing points to a competent coaching staff.  Most of their wins should have happened based on the crappiness of the competition with any somewhat competent coaching staff.  I can't really think of one great win which was won by a wiley move by the coaching staff, and I'd love to be wrong about that.

I'd sum it up for you, but you wouldn't believe me.

The Saints really made something out of less than nothing and came from behind this week, according to that graphic.

I'm a Vikings fan through and through, but I don't think that many Vikings teams could have pulled that off, although I faintly recall a game in which Sean Salisbury had seemingly done everything he could to score -1 points.  I think it was this one.  Losing to Tampa Bay was almost the same as playing a negative game back then.

Onto another subject...

This time, I ranked and awarded points (like fantasy baseball standings) in these categories: W-L%, Point Differential, W% vs. teams that are .500 or better (quality opponents) so far, % of games vs. quality opponents, and then added the # of wins vs. quality opponents.  The results may surprise you.

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