SB Nation User Blog: KC Viking

I found this on a friend's blog

KC Viking — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 20:54:57 -0000

I'd sum it up for you, but you wouldn't believe me.

The Saints really made something out of less than nothing and came from behind this week, according to that graphic.

I'm a Vikings fan through and through, but I don't think that many Vikings teams could have pulled that off, although I faintly recall a game in which Sean Salisbury had seemingly done everything he could to score -1 points. I think it was this one. Losing to Tampa Bay was almost the same as playing a negative game back then.

Onto another subject...

Poll

Who do you blame most for the loss to the Cardinals?

Brett Favre for throwing those picks.
AP for not establishing an effective running game, probably because he had spent all of his angst and aggressiveness on endangering peoples' lives on the highway instead of on the field.
The OL for getting hurt and not protecting Favre.
The D line for being invisible most of the game (except when Pat Williams was in coverage, as if that could ever be a good idea).
The defensive backfield for allowing 15 catches for 241 yards and 3 TDs to Fitzgerald and Boldin alone.
Childress for being outcoached and for playing his starters late in the game.
Leslie Frazier for failing to stop the run or cover the Cardinal receivers.
Darrell Bevell for failing to take advantage of a porous Arizona D.

50 votes | Results

Week 11 Spreadsheet Power Rankings

KC Viking — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 21:05:24 -0000

This time, I ranked and awarded points (like fantasy baseball standings) in these categories: W-L%, Point Differential, W% vs. teams that are .500 or better (quality opponents) so far, % of games vs. quality opponents, and then added the # of wins vs. quality opponents. The results may surprise you.

Tm	W	L	W-L%	W% Pts	PtDif	PD Pts	QW	QL	QW-L %	Q% Pts	QG/10	QG/10 Pts	Rank Pts
1. Indianapolis Colts	10	0	100%	31.5	112	29.0	6	0	100%	31.5	60%	18.5	116.50
2. San Diego Chargers	7	3	70%	27.0	64	27.0	4	3	57%	24.5	70%	27.0	109.50
3. Cincinnati Bengals	7	3	70%	27.0	48	22.0	5	2	71%	28.0	70%	27.0	109.00
4. New Orleans Saints	10	0	100%	31.5	165	32.0	4	0	100%	31.5	40%	5.5	104.50
5. New England Patriots	7	3	70%	27.0	126	31.0	3	2	60%	26.5	50%	11.5	99.00
6. Minnesota Vikings	9	1	90%	30.0	113	30.0	3	1	75%	29.5	40%	5.5	98.00
7. Baltimore Ravens	5	5	50%	16.5	66	28.0	2	5	29%	19.0	70%	27.0	92.50
8. Denver Broncos	6	4	60%	21.5	-13	14.0	4	3	57%	24.5	70%	27.0	91.00
9. Arizona Cardinals	7	3	70%	27.0	53	23.0	3	1	75%	29.5	40%	5.5	88.00
10. Dallas Cowboys	7	3	70%	27.0	56	24.0	2	3	40%	23.0	50%	11.5	87.50
11. New York Giants	6	4	60%	21.5	31	20.0	2	4	33%	22.0	60%	18.5	84.00
12. Pittsburgh Steelers	6	4	60%	21.5	47	21.0	3	2	60%	26.5	50%	11.5	83.50
13. New York Jets	4	6	40%	12.0	24	18.0	2	5	29%	19.0	70%	27.0	78.00
14. Carolina Panthers	4	6	40%	12.0	-46	9.0	2	5	29%	19.0	70%	27.0	69.00
15. Philadelphia Eagles	6	4	60%	21.5	62	26.0	1	3	25%	15.0	40%	5.5	69.00
16. Tennessee Titans	4	6	40%	12.0	-63	8.0	2	5	29%	19.0	70%	27.0	68.00
17. Green Bay Packers	6	4	60%	21.5	59	25.0	1	3	25%	15.0	40%	5.5	68.00
18. Atlanta Falcons	5	5	50%	16.5	24	18.0	1	4	20%	13.5	50%	11.5	60.50
19. Oakland Raiders	3	7	30%	7.0	-126	4.0	2	5	29%	19.0	70%	27.0	59.00
20. San Francisco 49ers	4	6	40%	12.0	-2	15.5	1	5	17%	11.0	60%	18.5	58.00
21. Houston Texans	5	5	50%	16.5	24	18.0	1	3	25%	15.0	40%	5.5	56.00
22. Chicago Bears	4	6	40%	12.0	-19	13.0	1	5	17%	11.0	60%	18.5	55.50
23. Kansas City Chiefs	3	7	30%	7.0	-70	7.0	1	6	14%	9.5	70%	27.0	51.50
24. Seattle Seahawks	3	7	30%	7.0	-37	10.0	1	5	17%	11.0	60%	18.5	47.50
25. Miami Dolphins	5	5	50%	16.5	-2	15.5	0	5	0%	3.5	50%	11.5	47.00
26. Washington Redskins	3	7	30%	7.0	-32	12.0	1	4	20%	13.5	50%	11.5	45.00
27. TB Buccaneers	1	9	10%	2.0	-130	3.0	1	6	14%	9.5	70%	27.0	42.50
28. Jacksonville Jaguars	6	4	60%	21.5	-36	11.0	0	2	0%	3.5	20%	1.0	37.00

The bottom 4, of course, are CLE, BUF, DET, and STL which have comprised 40% of the Vikings' schedule so far. If one were to assume that these are exactly correct and that they remain in very nearly the same order at season's end, then 3/4 of the Vikings' schedule will have been vs. the lower half of the league.

It will be interesting to see if Cedric Benson is back for the Bengals by the time the Vikings play them. If not, I'll be doubly excited every time a Viking defender puts a major hurt on that low-life punk named Larry Johnson. I hope that turns out to be a good game in any case because the Vikings definitely need practice playing against a real team or two.

Many thanks to Pro-Football-Reference.com for all of its helpful and fun information.

Poll

On a scale of 1 to 5, how accurate do you think these rankings are?

1. Easily the least accurate I've ever seen.

8 votes

2. Not the worst, but these are terrible.

13 votes

3. Not the worst and more interesting than most, but c'mon.

22 votes

4. Accurate for the most part, but who cares about ___ (specify in comments, please)?

1 votes

5. A power ranking system that actually cares about strength of schedule and quality wins? It's about time!

6 votes

50 votes | Poll has closed

The Myth of the 30-something QB in decline

KC Viking — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 02:29:05 -0000

With a 39-year-old QB, it is natural to worry for his health and durability and continued effectiveness. It is also normal for some fans of teams with older QBs to develop cases of Older Quarterback Anxiety Fatigue. Symptoms of OQAF include: sleeplessness; irrational fears and nightmares of the older QB's arm falling off; irritability; wishing that potentially helpful free agents who could represent a real upgrade sign with other teams if over the age range of 26-29; living in a state of denial about the likely odds of a below-average backup becoming a future all-star; sometimes escalating to delusional magnification of the actual performance or worth of any young QB which could become associated with the team; and dysentery. Anyone who plays Madden football is familiar with the algorithm which ages players by subtracting from key attributes, but even the Madden algorithm which perpetuates much of this myth and does not subtract from accuracy or awareness (yes, I'm still on the old attributes as a PS2 user). As it turns out, Brett Favre is not the only QB to play well into his 30s, and the 30-ish dropoff is kind of a myth. There are many great examples of QBs who did their best work in their 30s, and not all of them were Hall of Famers.

(While it's not perfect, I'm going to use the NFL passer rating to determine when various QBs had their best seasons. This is not an exhaustive list by any stretch.)

Chad Pennington was 20-ish in 3 of his 6 best seasons and a 30-something in the other 3.
Tommy Kramer was 31 when he put together his only great season.
Jim Hart was 32 when he had his best campaign as a starter, and he was a Pro Bowler then.
4x Pro Bowler Norm Snead was 33 during his best season (by far).
The only 2x that Brad Johnson had a rating of 90+, he was 31 and 34, and those were his only 2 Pro Bowl years.
Jim Harbaugh was 27 when he had his first good season, but 31, 32, and 34 during his best seasons (all better than his 1990 campaign, including a Pro Bowl appearance).
John Hadl was 33 when he enjoyed his best year as a passer (by far).
Jim Plunkett was in his 30s during his 3-5 best seasons (depending on how many games qualify).
Matt Hasselbeck was 30 and 32 during his best 2 seasons so far.
Jeff George was in his 30s during his 2 best seasons.
Vinny Testaverde's first good season was at age 30, and his best season was at age 35.
Trent Green's best years were from 32-35 (peaking at 34).
Joe Theismann's best years were from age 33-35, and injury, not age, ended his career.
5/7 of Len Dawson's years with an 80+ rating were during his 30s, including 4 of the 6 years that he led the league in passer rating.
3/4 of Bob Greise's best seasons happened in his 30s, including a year in which he led the NFL in passer rating.
As good as Fran Tarkenton was in his 20s, 3/4 of his seasons with a passer rating of 89+ were accomplished as a 30-something. 4 of his 9 Pro Bowl appearances were awarded in his 30s, including 3 consecutive Pro Bowl appearances at ages 34-36.
3/4 of Kerry Collins's best seasons were in his 30s, including his first Pro Bowl appearance at age 36.
Steve DeBerg's best season came at age 36.
Both of John Brodie's 85+ ratings happened in his 30s, including his only 2 Pro Bowl appearances at ages 30 and 35.
Craig Morton posted his best rating in 1981 at age 38.

I hope this will calm some anxieties about the Vikings possibly inking a 30-something (preferably not older than 35-36 unless he's really good) in the offseason. Generally, the ones who were good already remained effective and occasionally got better. Yes, signing a Frerotte-like 30-something and expecting lightning in a bottle is a bad idea, and perhaps someone like Jeff Garcia is too old if the plan is to keep the same QB for 3-5 years. I do not believe that Chad Pennington would be a bad addition at all at his age (assuming that his arm is healed), especially since he thrives by being incredibly accurate with more poise and a quicker release than most. Were it not for his future injury risk, it would be easy to imagine that his career could last into his 40s since his game doesn't rely so much on arm strength and deep throws (which he proved that he could throw a few times last year). I'm not sure exactly what to think about Sage Rosenfels, but I'm certainly not worried about him performing poorly because of his age.

Poll

What is your OQAF status?

I've never had it. F'reals.

14 votes

I've never had it. (<----- denial!)

3 votes

I definitely had it, but I'm definitely over it.

1 votes

I definitely had it, and some of the symptoms are still lingering.

8 votes

The real question: How many days of the bye week did Cedric Griffin spend inebriated and passed out?

14 votes

40 votes | Poll has closed

How will the Vikings finish the season?

KC Viking — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 17:43:32 -0000

Remember 2006's 4-2 start and only 2 more wins the rest of the way for a 6-10 finish?
What about 2007 (a.k.a. the Tarvaris Jackson Amateur Year) when they started out 2-5 and finished 8-8?
Even 2008 seemed awful after a 3-4 start, but that team won the Division and promptly lost its only playoff game.

Fun with numbers: # of games in which the Vikings scored at least 21 points; # of games in which they scored 0 TDs:

2006: 5; 1
2007: 8; 1
2008: 7; 1
2009 through 7 games: 6; 0

The KAO appears to have arrived with Brett Favre, although the D we expected to see has been AWOL at times.

With all of that in mind, how do you expect the Vikings to finish 2009?

Poll

How will the 2009 Vikings finish the season?

13-3 or better and at least 1 playoff win.

85 votes

13-3 or better and lose their only playoff game.

3 votes

12-4 and at least 1 playoff win.

79 votes

12-4 and lose their only playoff game.

3 votes

11-5 and at least 1 playoff win.

7 votes

11-5 and lose their only playoff game.

5 votes

10-6 and at least 1 playoff win.

0 votes

10-6 and lose their only playoff game.

8 votes

Somehow worse than last year.

6 votes

196 votes | Poll has closed

How to improve the Vikings' defensive backfield?

KC Viking — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 17:37:02 -0000

Overall, the Minnesota Vikings' defense has played well so far, ranking in the top 10 in yards per attempt, least time of possession allowed, fewest 1st downs, 3rd down % allowed and several rushing categories. They are 17th in points allowed (t-20th in TD passes allowed, 1st in rushing TDs allowed), 14th in yards allowed (10th in rushing yards allowed). Aside from defensive penalty yards (228, 26th), most of their rankings are good overall, but the pass defense is still their weakness. Stats, rankings and possible suspects will be discussed after the jump.

More passing defensive stats and rankings:

Sacks: 16, 1st
Rating: 84.6, 17th
Comp%: 63%, 24.5th
TDs allowed: 21.5
Yds/Comp: 11.7, 20.5th
Yds/Att: 7.4, 22.5th
AY/A: 6.1, 14.5th
ANY/A: 4.8, 8.5th
1stD%: 32.3, 11th
PD: 18, 28.67th
20+ yd passes allowed: 13, 23rd
40+ yd passes allowed: 1, 11.5th
Opp offensive rank (pyds): 19th
Opp offensive rank (rating): 18.75th
Opp offensive rank (passing ANY/A): 21st

Overall (by these rankings): 17.5th

(Stat I wish I had: opponents' 2nd half passing attempts and production numbers.)

The fact that the Vikings have played slightly below average pass defense vs. mediocre or worse teams which have combined for a 6-10 record so far is troubling, and perhaps it's time to think about making a change or two. Which defensive backs are performing well, and who is not?

Try to guess who owns each stat line:
a) 0 INT, 0 PD, 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 Sacks
b) 1 INT, 4 PD, 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 Sacks
c) 2 INT, 2 PD, 1 FF, 0 FR, 0 Sacks
d) 0 INT, 1 PD, 0 FF, 1 FR, 1 Sack
e) 2 INT, 3 PD, 0 FF, 2 FR, 0 Sacks
f) 0 INT, 2 PD, 0 FF, 0 FR, 0 Sacks

Can you guess who did what?

Player (a) is the high-salaried veteran safety, Madieu Williams. He has fewer stats defending the pass than DT Kevin Williams (d) or the first-year starter on the other side of the field, Tyrell Johnson (f) or OLB Chad Greenway (e), who has better stats against the pass than both TW and MW put together. Player (b) is Antoine Winfield, and player (c) is Cedric Griffin. What greater sign of poor play in the Vikings' secondary could there be other than Cedric Griffin having the second-best stat line after 4 games against mediocre to awful teams?

Tyrell Johnson is young enough to improve and step up at some point, although that is not guaranteed to happen. Madieu Williams

Football Outsiders recently published DVOA rankings for defensive efficiency from the first 4 weeks. Minnesota's secondary ranked in the top 10 by the graphs I saw, but a glance at which WRs were defended well above or below average (scroll down) showed that #1 WRs were defended 5th best in the league (-50something%) while the other side was 10 points higher (bad, meaning more scoring) than the average. Whomever covered #2 WRs for the Vikings ranked 19th among those who cover #2 WRs (51st overall). I'm guessing that that guy is Cedric Griffin, who was listed as a FS in nfldraftscout.com/USAToday's 2006 draft preview.

Theoretically, it could make sense to move Cedric Griffin to FS, draw straws for Madieu Williams or Tyrell Johnson at SS, and start Asher Allen or Tyrell Johnson at CB2. What changes do you want to see in the Vikings' secondary?

Poll

What changes are necessary for the Vikings to improve their secondary?

No changes are necessary. The Football Fairy will leave the answers under Cedric Griffin's ginormous cushion while he's passed out.

21 votes

Madieu Williams should lose his job, at least for a week or two.

17 votes

Tyrell Johnson should sit for 3 years like Aaron Rodgers did. How can any NFL team expect young players to perform without coddling them for 3 years?

4 votes

I don't know, but nothing should be changed until the team is playing meaningful games.

21 votes

Surely there is someone available via trade.

27 votes

90 votes | Poll has closed

Power rankings

KC Viking — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 19:00:36 -0000

After a nail-biting last-second win vs. the 49ers (.500 over their past 20 games) and a 1-TD win vs. the Packers (losing record over their last 20 games), the Vikings are 5th (and probably will be no higher until they beat somebody good). This time I sorted by W% and then by point differential in a spreadsheet...

# by w% and point differential; ( ) by w% and points scored, if different; [ ] by w% and fewest points allowed, if different than original ranking:

1. Saints [4]
2. Broncos (5) [1]
3. Colts (4) [2]
4. Giants (3) [3]
5. Vikings (2)
6. 49ers (8)
7. Ravens (6) [11]
8. Bears (7) [10]
9. Jets (11) [7]
10. Patriots (9) [8]
11. Bengals (10) [9]
12. Eagles [13]
13. Falcons [12]
14. Cowboys (17) [15]
15. Packers (14) [19]
16. Jaguars [17]

Underrated by this ranking system: PIT [16th by W% and PA], SD (15th by W% and PF) and WAS [14th by W% and PA] could replace JAX and GB and perhaps someone else.

Super sleepers: ARI (top 10 in fewest points allowed, and that offense will heat up again), MIA (finally won this week, only losing team with a positive point differential) , SEA (Hasselbeck to Houshmandzadeh should become more common as the season wears on). At least 2 of these teams could play significantly better than they have been.

Bottom line? The Jacksonville Jaguars are absolutely mediocre.

The first great game of the season in numbers

KC Viking — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 15:12:48 -0000

In the first 2 weeks, we saw the Vikings struggle and come from behind against some bad teams. Few thought of the 49ers as a powerhouse going into week 3, and after doing everything they could to lose this one, the Vikings came from behind again, but this time in such a miraculous fashion that my dad and probably thousands of others had already shut off the teevee in disgust. The numbers suggest that this win was not only because of one pass...

3: This is the number of times the Vikings have trailed at halftime in as many games.

2/8 + 2: Favre threw at least one deep pass per quarter, five by halftime, and of course that miracle winner to Greg Lewis to end it all. Favre had also thrown an incomplete deep pass to Shank which resulted in a 5-yd penalty and first down and another to Sidney Rice which was ruled an illegal forward pass. These 10 deep passes resulted in 1 first down, 2 TD, 1 INT, 62 yards and a win. This game had more deep passing attempts than in the first 2 games combined.

1: It seems like Childress-coached Vikings teams have a tradition of allowing at least one opponent per year the luxury of turning a blocked punt or FG into a touchdown for them. Let's hope that that tradition has been satisfied and that we'll see no more of these throughout the year. This effectively nullified Percy Harvin's spectacular 101-yard kickoff return. Let us never speak of such things again.

1.53: AP's average gain on the 15 carries that didn't go for 7-35 yards.

2: The number of times that an opponent WR has run the wrong route and given Cedric Griffin a fairly easy INT.

27: The Vikings have scored at least that many points in all 3 games so far. In 2008, that only happened 7x. In 2007, only 6x. In 2006, only 3x.

94.6: Shaun Hill's passer rating vs. the Vikings' defense. His rating for the season and for his career are around 90.

96: The number of yards gained by TE Vernon Davis for a career high. His 2 TD passes were another career high, and he has only caught 7 passes in 1 game on 1 other occasion.

ELEVENTY: The number of drops that Bernard Berrian seemed to have.

Poll

Who will have the better game next Monday night?

Brett Favre

31 votes

Aaron Rodgers

10 votes

41 votes | Poll has closed

The top 10 mobile QBs of all time (by NFL Network)

KC Viking — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 01:25:11 -0000

There has probably been a post about this already, but I don't recall one about the entire list. After the jump, there is a poll, a summary of the list, and more...

1. Fran Tarkenton
2. Steve Young
3. Randall Cunningham
4. Michael Vick
5. Bobby Douglass
6. Roger Staubach
7. Dan Marino
8. Jim Zorn
9. Doug Flutie
10. Donovan McNabb

NOT included: Kordell Stewart, Daunte Culpepper, Rich Gannon, John Elway...and even Jim Harbaugh or Rodney Peete may have moved around more than some of those guys. I'll bet that Ray Lucas, the Jets QB who was brought in to run the option, was more mobile than some of those.

They must have had some minimum number of games started or career yards rushing or something. Who else am I forgetting who at least deserved an honorable mention if Marino deserved his spot at all?

Poll

The list of the 10 most mobile NFL QBs...

...is perfect!

9 votes

...is right about the first 4 or 5, but gets ridiculous after that.

17 votes

...shows a clear bias toward east coast slow white guys like Marino.

3 votes

...is just another example of The Man trying to keep McNabb down.

0 votes

...would be fine were it Kordell and Elway instead of Zorn and Marino.

7 votes

...would be fine were it Kordell and Culpepper instead of Zorn and Marino.

10 votes

46 votes | Poll has closed

The 9/20/09 Game in Numbers

KC Viking — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 15:01:47 -0000

Here are some of the key numbers which explained why things happened as they did, illustrated what was done well and/or poorly and may be harbingers of what is to come.

11/28: This is how many times the Vikings passed on first downs. It's almost exactly the same as last week (11/27). Does this mean that the Vikings' coaches were equally afraid of Cleveland's and Detroit's secondaries?

0/3: This is how Favre and his receivers fared on deep passes. This is one fewer attempt than last week which could mean that the coaches are really babying Favre's surgically repaired arm or that they aren't creative or imaginitive to play the Browns and Lions any differently. The first attempt was made early in the 2nd quarter, and the next 2 attempts were back-to-back in the 3rd quarter. The last one was called back due to a 5-yard defensive penalty. WIthout a doubt, the Vikings need to throw deep more often than this in order to keep defenses off the LOS and in the box to stop the run. Even though AP is capable of breaking several tackles per game, if we want to see him play this well for many more years to come, it would be wise to use the passing game to reduce the number of potentially damaging hits on our favorite running back.

2: This is the number of Copycat plays and the number of yards gained on those plays (unless I misinterpreted a play on the play-by-play which didn't seem to add up...then it would be 1 play for 1 yard, yay). It's also the number of interceptions by Chad Greenway and the number of penalties called on RT Phil Loadholt.

3/11: The Vikings' 3rd down conversion % against an absolutely putrid team (4/11 if penalties count) Only 2 were thrown short of the 1st down marker without gaining the needed amount of yards (in bold).

3-3 (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short middle to 87-B.Berrian to DET 48 for 11 yards
3-14 (3:49) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short middle to 29-C.Taylor to MIN 36 for 9 yards
3-1 28-A.Peterson left tackle to DET 48 for -1 yards
3-14 (10:13) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete deep middle to 81-V.Shiancoe.
3-5 (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short left to 12-P.Harvin to DET 39 for 10 yards (26-L.Delmas).
3-7 (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short middle to 12-P.Harvin to DET 34 for 10 yards
3-5 4-B.Favre pass incomplete short left to 81-V.Shiancoe
3-8 (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass incomplete deep left to 81-V.Shiancoe. PENALTY on DET-40-M.Manuel, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at DET 32 - No Play.
3-13 (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre sacked at MIN 20 for -6 yards
3-8-DET 35 (10:44) (Shotgun) 4-B.Favre pass short left to 12-P.Harvin to DET 28 for 7 yards
3-2 29-C.Taylor left tackle to DET 25 for no gain

4: He was 23/27 with 2 TDs and no interceptions. The other 3 bright spots were Chad Greenway, Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin.

How do you regard Detroit Lions fans?

KC Viking — Sat, 19 Sep 2009 21:09:29 -0000

After the jump, there is a poll. Feel free to comment about your predictions about tomorrow's game and for the Lions' losing streak and all other appropriate things related to the Lions and Vikings.

In the meantime, I must get to seventy-five words. Some say that the Lions are cursed after not appreciating Barry Sanders (mostly at the end of his career) for losing so many yards. For those who don't remember him so well (and for those who do and enjoy watching him again), you may see him run here (I recommend muting the sound, though).

Poll

How do you regard Detroit Lions fans?

I pity the fools.

19 votes

I relish every opportunity to give them grief all the way to 0-30 and beyond.

12 votes

Better them than us. The Vikings would be on a losing streak without AP, after all.

10 votes

They are definitely loyal to a fault

20 votes

At least some of them are getting what they deserve for not appreciating Barry Sanders.

7 votes

68 votes | Poll has closed