A few weeks ago, in the comment section to one the 188 Peyton Manning posts, I made some comments about the Chiefs spendthrift ways.

I pointed out that KC ranked last in payroll spending over the last 4 seasons and had spent $119 million less than the average team, and $69 million less than the 30th place Bengals, meaning that 29 of the other 31 teams were closer to the average than we were to 30th place. I also compared their spending to our division rivals. I received many replies, some defending Clark Hunt and one that asked me to show a correlation between spending and winning.

This intrigued me, so I decided to do some research to find the relationship between spending and winning. The results after the jump!

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I think we are all excited about the Royal's future the next couple of years.  We look forward to ending many seasons of  non relevance in the pennant race.  This is my pie in the sky dream of how to hasten the day this team is relevant again.   On the surface, it seems impossible, as the basis for the entire plan rests on the thin hope that David Glass saved salary the last two years so that the team had money to make the moves we need to make now.

What better to time to roll the dice and be bold than now, with the all star game next season?  My plan is after the jump.

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Baseball people will tell you that a 19-1 loss is the same as a 1-0 loss.  It only counts as one loss in the standings.

Sabermetricians know that, statistically, this is a fallacy.  A team's record in blowout (5+ run) wins and losses is a serious indicator of that team's overall skill.  Much more than any other such split, a very bad or very good record in these games coincides with a very bad or very good team.

The good news here is that the Royals are still 6-5 in these games, even after the 19-1 drubbing.  They were 14-30 last year.

In 2010, the 6 teams with the worst winning percentage in blowout games won an average of about 66 games overall.  The best 6 teams won an average of about 93, with the top 5 being playoff teams.  Those with a blowout winning percentage between .450 and .550 won an average of 82 games, and all had between 75 and 88 wins. 

I am on record as saying that this team has no chance of a playoff run this year, and I stand by that.  The Indians are for real, and the chance of a wildcard is miniscule.  However, for those hoping merely to be respectable this year, as a jumping off point for the future, the 6-5 record in these games is a positive indicator for that possibility.  For those (including myself) with dire preseason predictions, be a little happy to be wrong, and sit back and enjoy mediocrity.

In Joe Posnanski's blog today, there was an article about how the Royals are 22-24 in Zack's last 46 starts.  I was a bit taken aback by this, so I decided to look a little deeper into it.  What I found was shocking even for someone who has watched it.

It's not as if Zack performed poorly in the losses.  He averaged 6.39 innings per start with a 3.05 ERA. He gave up more than 3 earned runs in only 6 of the 24 losses, and his ERA was 3.05. That's 0-12, 12 no decisions 3.05 ERA.

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I wrote the following in response to Yankees fans who claim that tremendous baseball acumen, rather than a limitless supply of money, makes the Yankees great.

They often point out that the Royals spend their money badly as an example.  I can't argue with that, but the money is the main difference.

My response is below the jump:

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Hi guys!  This review with predictions has become popular among  several Royals fans who are friends. I thought that some of you might enjoy it as well.  Here we go-

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This is my somewhat late review and rant about the first half of the season.

A statistical caveat:  The #'s used are my own adaptation of Runs created per 27 outs (or in pitchers cases, runs allowed)  I  include some baserunning in the hitters #'s, and of course the pitching #'s include some purely pitching stats.  AL average for batters in my system is 4.82, for pitchers it is 4.72.  This difference is largely because AL batters scored a lot more runs against the NL than AL pitchers gave up.  All #'s are at the break, and they are figured for 27 outs Because I don't want to see how long the average game is and it makes the batter and pitcher #'s more comparable.

An attitude caveat: The recent play of the team, the recent trade, and some of the things I have heard about the trade deadline may cause me to be a little caustic in some of my comments.

That being said let's get started.  Offensively the yanks are best at 5.68 (I have to put yanks because my spellcheck automatically capitalizes Yankees-the evil empire strikes again.)  The A's save us from last place at 3.92, we are at 3.97.

Caveat #3:  I started this at the break and got delayed by life.  Some things were written well before the losing streak, It slips into some of the pitcher comments.  Obviously even in a week or so there have been new developments.

Alberto Callaspo- 5.35:  Yes, that's correct.  Bert is your best offensive player this year.  That is itself a problem as the best hitters on the other 13 teams average about 7.5.  Callaspo would be a godsend if he could field even close to average, but he is a butcher.  Early this year when Bert was REALLY playing well, the Royals decided to try hitting him in the 2 hole.  He had a little slump so Trey has decided that he cannot handle the "Pressure" of hitting high in the lineup.  Besides, Trey says he is more comfortable hitting 8th, and why would you want to overuse your best hitter by giving him another hundred plate appearances?  That would be unsportsmanlike!   We could give those to people like  Mike Aviles, Mitch Maier, Luis Hernandez, Ryan Freel, and Tony Pena Jr.  Yeah, THAT'S going to be better.  I can't wait to see if Betancourt hits #2 the first time Bloomie is not playing.  I will probably throw up in my mouth a little.   Callaspo would definitely be hitting 2nd for me.

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I like comparing Zack to AL DH era pitchers  (comparing him to Juan Marichal  while impressive, is apples to oranges with the higher mound and no DH.)

With his last start, Zack has 10 consecutive appearances allowing 2 runs or less to start the season.  The old record was 8 (Mike Norris, Kirk Mcaskill).

He has 12 consecutive including last year, also a record.  The old record was 11 (Roger Clemens, Gaylord Perry, Justin Duchschere).

The record for 2 earned runs was also 8 to start the season, Clemens has the overall record at 21, but the only others ahead of Zack are Gaylord and Pedro.

He has 16 games giving up 3 or less runs.  the Record is Pedro with 23, but the only others ahead are Johann Santana, and Pedro's 2nd best.

  The record to start the season is 15 by Jimmy Key and Ron Guidry.  Former Royal Kevin Appier had 12 in 1992, and somehow Jeremy Guthrie managed to have 11, averaging over 7 innings per start, with 7 no decisions in 2007.

The record for 3 or less earned runs is also 23.  (Zack has 18)  Clemens joins Pedro at the top, and Johann, Ken Holtzman and Jack Morris also need to be passed. 

The record to start the season is 17.  (Justin Duchschere and Tim Wakefield)

The League is hitting .203 against Zack this year with an OPS of .506, and while that is impressive, I have his earned ERA at 1.49.  So why is it less? 3 reasons:

 1) The fact that he has given up 0 Homers.  (As mentioned in an excellent recent post.

2) Zack takes a little while to get going.  OPS in first 3 innings: a pedestrian .690.  Innings 4-6:  a much better .400.  7-9: .339.

3)  Zack seems to toy with hitters until he is threatened. Hitters against him with runners in scoring position:

AB       H      2B       3B       HR       BB       K       SB       CS       HBP      SH       SF       GIDP       AVE       OBP       SLG

52       7        0          0          0          2        21       1           0           0           2         1              5             .135        .164       .135 

With 57 actual plate PA's, 45.61% of the hitters facing him either strikeout or ground into a double play!  He turns everyone into the NL pitchers spot!

I have noticed that this post rambles a little bit, but with the Royals getting their ass handed to them tonight, my Greinke obsession ran rampant.

 

 

Zack became only the 9th pitcher in the AL/DH era to win 9 consecutive starts, giving up 3 earned runs or less in each start.

 

 

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Lost amid the euphoria of DT's long overdue induction was the name of Bob Hayes former Cowboy receiver. It had occured to me that though they had different styles (Hayes was a burner, and Otis a punishing possession receiver) they seemed very similar to me. A quick check at football reference showed just how similar they are, and gave me renewed hope for Otis Taylor to join the Hall of Fame.

Hayes & Taylor both played from 1965 to 1975, and were among the most feared receivers of their day, in a time that was heavily geared towards the run and spreading the ball around.

Hayes played 132 games, Taylor 130.

Hayes had 371 receptions to Taylor's 410.

Hayes had 7414 receiving yards to Taylor's 7306.

Hayes did lead in career TD's 73-60

Hayes had 23 100 yard games, Otis had 20.

Both had 3 pro bowls and were named first team All Pro twice.

Hayes played in 10 playoff games, catching 27 passes for 427 yards & 2 touchdowns. He was in 2 super Bowls but had only a combined total of 3 receptions for 64 yards in those games. Dallas went 1-1.

In only 5 career playoff games, Otis had 17 catches for 343 yards and a touchdown. The Chiefs also went 1-1 in the Super Bowl, but Otis had a combined total of 10 catches for 138 yards and a famous, game changing touchdown.

If Bob Hayes is in, why not Otis?

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First Post: A Royal's wrap-up written in October

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