SB Nation User Blog: KLSnow

Fall/Winter League Update for 11/11/2009

KLSnow — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 12:45:17 -0000

In Arizona: On Monday, Mark Rogers pitched two scoreless innings, allowing one hit and striking out one in the Javelinas' 4-3 win over Phoenix. Lorenzo Cain went 1-for-3 with a double and a walk, stole a base and scored a run. Jonathan Lucroy went 2-for-4 with a double and drove in two runs, and Taylor Green went 0-for-4 with two strikeouts.

Last night, Lucroy went 1-for-4 with a double, drove in a run and scored one in the Javelinas' 9-5 win over the Saguaros. Lorenzo Cain went 1-for-5 with a double, but also struck out twice. The Javelinas overcame yet another rough outing from Josh Butler, who allowed four runs on five hits and two walks in just two innings.

In Venezuela:

Alcides Escobar went 1-for-3 with a stolen base, two RBI and a run scored for Lara last night.
Hernan Iribarren went 2-for-5 with a double, stole a base, drove in a run and scored twice for Lara.
Brendan Katin went 1-for-3 for Zulia.

In the Dominican Republic: From Sunday and Monday's action.

Erick Almonte went 2-for-6 with two walks. His .416 OBP is the eighth highest in the DWL.
Juan Sandoval allowed three runs (one earned) on three hits without retiring a batter on Sunday.

How about a game thread for a Brewer replay?

KLSnow — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 23:57:14 -0000

How about a game thread for a Brewer replay?

FS Wisconsin is replaying the September 6 Brewers-Giants game tonight. If you've forgotten the game, I won't spoil it for you, but be on the lookout for multiples of three and shock waves.

Looking back at community projections: Third Basemen

KLSnow — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 19:22:38 -0000

by Morry Gash - AP

Casey McGehee pictured here hitting a grand slam, was an afterthought for most of us before the season.

View full size photo »

Sometimes a tornado blows through and leaves everything exactly how it was. That's kind of how third base went for the Brewers this season: Nothing went exactly how we projected, but the end result was about the same.

Projections:

Bill Hall
Projected: .262/.329/.454
Actual: .201/.265/.341

Mat Gamel
Projected: .274/.334/.442
Actual: .242/.338/.422

Craig Counsell
Projected: .231/.322/.332
Actual: .285/.357/.408

Before the season we were pretty optimistic about Bill Hall, with six of the nine projectors giving him an OPS of .780 or above. Instead, he played his way off the team and got to the point where the Brewers ate most of his salary and traded him to Seattle for a low level pitching prospect.

Worth noting: Mat Gamel's 2009 numbers don't really tell the whole story regarding his performance: Gamel hit .274/.340/.524 in 94 plate appearances as a third baseman, and went just 8-for-44 (.182) as a DH and pinch hitter.

Playing time:

Player	Projected %	Actual %	Diff
Bill Hall	41.6%	30%	-11.6%
Mike Lamb	32.3%	0%	-32.3%
Mat Gamel	24.5%	13.4%	-11.1%
Craig Counsell	1.6%	19.1%	+17.5%
Casey McGehee	0%	37.4%	+37.4%

Obviously, we completely whiffed on Casey McGehee. When we made the projections, many of us expected Mike Lamb to take his place on the roster: Instead, Lamb declined an assignment to the minors at the end of spring training and didn't appear in the majors this season.

Meanwhile, Craig Counsell had a very good season for him, but the fact that he received 50% more playing time than Mat Gamel is puzzling at best.

Overall:

	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Projected	.263	.330	.431	.762
Actual	.267	.330	.440	.770
Difference	+.004	Even	+.009	+.008

Looking back at community projections: Shortstops

KLSnow — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 18:15:07 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Alcides Escobar, seen here leaping over Delwyn Young, also leapfrogged J.J. Hardy this season en route to cementing himself as the shortstop of the future.

Browse more photos »

Let's continue to work our way around the diamond with a look at another very disappointing position: shortstops.

Projections:

J.J. Hardy
Projected: .281/.347/.455
Actual: .229/.302/.357

Alcides Escobar
Projected: .263/.308/.359
Actual: .304/.333/.368

Craig Counsell
Projected: .231/.322/.332
Actual: .285/.357/.408

If you've just now noticed that J.J. Hardy had a disappointing season, I'm sorry. Hardy underachieved our expectations by 143 OPS points. possibly the single largest gap between expectations and reality on the 2009 Brewers.

Meanwhile, the sample size is small, but Alcides Escobar exceeded our expectations in all three slash lines, and cemented his status as the Opening Day shortstop for 2010.

Speaking of small sample sizes: There's probably nothing too this, but check out Craig Counsell's splits by defensive position in 2009:

Pos.	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
as 2B	206	.266	.322	.408	.739
as 3B	134	.333	.410	,470	.881
as SS	94	.253	.290	.333	.624
as PH	25	.313	.542	.375	.917

Counsell had a career year in 2009, and his numbers were good at second, great at third and incredible (in a small sample) as a pinch hitter. Yet somehow he was terrible as a shortstop. I'm not sure if that's relevant or just a small sample size quirk, but I thought I'd share it and let you decide for yourself.

Playing Time

Player	Projected %	Actual %	Diff
J.J. Hardy	87.9%	67.1%	-20.8%
Craig Counsell	6.9%	13.6%	+6.7%
Alcides Escobar	5.3%	19.3%	+14%

Clearly, Hardy's underwhelming performance had something to do with him getting significantly less playing time, although his service time may also have had something to do with it. Escobar didn't play as much as many of us thought he should when Hardy was back in September, but still contributed nearly four times as often as we expected him to.

Again, when these projections were made Craig Counsell had yet to re-sign with the Crew. Many of us projected him to play anyway, but he likely would have gotten a larger share of the projection if we'd been sure he'd be back.

Overall:

	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Projected	.277	.344	.442	.785
Actual	.247	.306	.356	.662
Difference	-.030	-.038	-.086	-.123

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 14:57:13 -0000

by Ann Heisenfelt - AP

Carlos Gomez makes the wrong kind of contact.

View full size photo »

Some things to read while realizing you left your credit card in your other armor.

Thanks to Dan, Tyler and Rubie for filling in for me last week while I took a quick break to experience life in New York for a few days. Writing the Mug is no small feat, and all three of them did admirable work in my place, so be sure to stop by their sites today to thank them. It's good to be home. With that said, I'm going in for oral surgery in roughly an hour so I'm off again tomorrow, and I've lined up another of my favorite Brewer bloggers to fill in. I'm hoping to return on Wednesday but that will depend on how I bounce back and how coherent I am on Vicodin.

The Brewers, of course, saw fit to ruin a perfectly good day of my vacation by trading J.J. Hardy for Carlos Gomez. If you weren't around the site this weekend, you missed a lot of great content on the trade: Jordan weighed in with his disappointment, Jeff made the case for keeping Mike Cameron anyway, and Noah, writing his first weekend roundup, had a great collection of thoughts on the deal from around the web. With that said, there's still a bunch more out there:

The Transaction Oracle compared Gomez to Tom Goodwin and said, "Gomez's version of selectivity is staring blankly at a random pitch and then flailing at the next one."
Tom Powers of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press called Gomez "clueless" and said he "has the baseball instincts of an Icelandic grade-schooler." (h/t BBTF)
The Grand National Championships called Gomez "a Juan Pierre without all that incessant singles hitting."
TheJay has a look at the career paths of players who have made as many PAs as Gomez has at such a young age with such a low OBP. Not exceptionally pretty.
Aaron Gleeman says Gomez has gotten a bum rap, but also likes the deal for the Twins.
Miller Park Drunk has a roundup of other things people are saying about Gomez.
Meanwhile, despite Jeff's objections, Doug Melvin confirmed that the Brewers' decision to acquire Gomez means they won't make a push to retain Mike Cameron for 2010.
Nick's Twins Blog has an overview of the deal, including my scouting report for Hardy.
Twinkie Town has some questions about Hardy's defense (based largely on the comments of some frequent BCB'ers), and whether or not it's as good as advertised.
FanGraphs has a look at Hardy's defense, and rated him the third most valuable defensive player in baseball since 2007.
Along with the Red Sox (and presumably some others), the Reds confirmed interest in Hardy. Melvin didn't want to deal Hardy in the division, so he was forced to accept less from someone else.
The Ghost of Moonlight Graham called the deal a steal for the Twins.
Rubie Q called the deal "worst nightmare stuff."
Baseball-Intellect says the Twins got Hardy for "pennies on the dollar."
Sabernomics is having a hard time choosing a winner in the deal.
Jorge Says No! says this deal has the potential to be win-win.

As of this writing, 54% of voters in the poll on your right think the Twins won the trade, with just 13% picking the Brewers. Gomez is walking in the door with a large portion of the fans believing he's not worth much, and it can be tough to overcome that when you're carrying a sub-.300 OBP. This could be the deal that sinks Doug Melvin.

Now, the Brewers have to find a way to wisely spend the financial windfall. MLB Trade Rumors has the likely landing spots for this winter's top 50 free agents, and lists both Doug Davis and Jarrod Washburn as likely Brewers, and also lists the Crew as a potential interested party regarding Jon Garland. Meanwhile, they have Felipe Lopez as a Dodger, Mike Cameron as a Padre and Ben Sheets as a Ranger.

Beyond that, there's not a lot of Brewer news, unless you wanted to talk about the decision to decline David Weathers' option.

Around baseball:

D-Backs: Exercised Brandon Webb's option for 2010.
Dodgers: Declined Jon Garland's option for 2010.
Nationals: Declined Austin Kearns' option for 2010.
Phillies: Exercised Cliff Lee's option for 2010 and declined Pedro Feliz's.
Pirates: Designated pitchers Virgil Vazquez and Eric Hacker and catcher Steve Lerud for assignment.
Red Sox: Declined their option for 2010 on Alex Gonzalez.
Reds: Outrighted outfielder Danny Richar and first baseman Kevin Barker to AAA. Both will be minor league free agents.
Rockies: Declined options on catcher Yorvit Torrealba and Alan Embree.
Royals: Declined 2010 options for Coco Crisp, Miguel Olivo and Yasuhiko Yabuta.
Tigers: Removed outfielder Marcus Thames and catcher Matt Treanor from their 40-man roster.
White Sox: Bought out the final year of Jermaine Dye's contract.

I'm going to wrap this up quickly, because my pre-surgery meds are starting to kick in:

Miguel Olivo has been mentioned as a potential option for the Brewers next season. Beyond the Box Score has a comprehensive list of things he does well.
Phil Birnbaum looks at the possibility that younger umpires have more accurate strike zones.
Baseball Reference wants your thoughts to help improve their site.
Seventeen congressmen voted no on a resolution congratulating the Yankees for winning the World Series. One of them was Wisconsin rep Jim Sensenbrenner. (h/t Baseball Musings)

On this day in 1982, Robin Yount was the unanimous choice to win the AL MVP after leading the AL in hits, doubles, slugging, OPS, OPS+ and total bases, while playing shortstop for the AL Champion Brewers.

It's also a big day for Brewer birthdays:

Dave Bush turns 30.
Angel Miranda, who appeared in 116 games as a Brewer between 1993 and 1997, turns 40.
Dion James, who was the Brewers' first round pick in the 1980 draft, turns 47.
Teddy Higuera, arguably the greatest pitcher in Brewer history, turns 51. You should celebrate his birthday by purchasing the sponsorship on his Bref page, which is available for $10.

Drink up.

Fall/Winter League Update for 11/9/2009

KLSnow — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 12:31:54 -0000

It's been a week since I did one of these, so all stats are from November 2-8, unless otherwise noted.

In Arizona:

Lorenzo Cain went 5-for-12 with two walks, scored twice, drove in two runs and stole three bases, raising his AFL line to .259/.403/.296. He still has just two extra base hits in 66 PAs.
Taylor Green went 1-for-3 with a walk and scored a run. He's hitting .200/.364/.200 in 43 PAs.
Jonathan Lucroy went 2-for-7 with a double and drove in two runs. He's hitting .364/.371/.576 in 34 PAs.
Omar Aguilar pitched an inning last Monday and two more on Thursday, allowing three earned runs on five hits and three walks, striking out two. He's posted a 7.84 ERA in 10.1 AFL innings, with a 10:6 K:BB ratio.
Zach Braddock pitched perfect innings on Monday and Friday, striking out one in each outing. Braddock has posted a 0.93 ERA in 9.2 innings, and hasn't allowed a hit or walk in his last four innings.
Josh Butler had a nice bounce back outing Tuesday, pitching three scoreless innings, allowing two hits, two walks and striking out four. He's now carrying a 10.13 ERA in 10.2 innings, and has walked 7 and struck out 11. Opposing batters are still hitting .420 off of him.
Mark Rogers got roughed up on Wednesday, allowing five runs on five hits (including two home runs) and a walk while lasting just .1 innings. Rogers has posted a 17.61 ERA in 7.2 AFL innings, walking nine and striking out five.
Rob Wooten pitched 1.2 innings Wednesday and another inning Friday, and allowed no runs on a hit and no walks, striking out three. That lowered his ERA to 4.76 in 5.2 innings, with one walk and seven strikeouts.

In Venezuela:

Alcides Escobar went 5-for-19 with two walks, scored twice, drove in two runs and stole two bases for Lara. Overall, he's hitting .281/.324/.281 in his first 34 VWL PAs.
Adam Heether hasn't played for Caracas since November 1 and I'm not sure why. With that said, as always, translations of Venezuelan articles on the matter are unintentionally hilarious:

Then, the eighth straight bat connects Estrada and sent it to the street. Eduardo Perez to Jose Castillo, Melian by Jose Duarte and Mario Lisson heethen Adam was the newness in hairy toletería through Hudgens wants to give opportunity to all its players.

Sounds like Heether is being held out to give someone else a shot. No mention of him being hurt, at least.

Hernan Iribarren went 6-for-15 with a triple and a walk, drove in three runs and scored twice for Lara. He's hitting .304/.360/.446 in 99 PAs.
Brendan Katin went 6-for-16 with three doubles, a triple, six walks, two stolen bases, four runs scored and two RBI. He's hitting .254/.395/.458 in 69 PAs.
Ryan Houston made his first appearance Thursday since having two disastrous blown saves in his first two outings. He pitched a perfect inning, picking up his first save.

In Mexico: David Welch picked up a win Thursday, allowing two runs on six hits in six innings of work, walking none and striking out seven. He's posted a 3.54 ERA in 20.1 LMP innings, striking out 23 and walking just seven.

In the Dominican Republic: All stats are from Sunday-Saturday:

Erick Almonte went 7-for-19 for Cibao, with two walks, a double and a home run, scoring twice and driving in two runs. He's hitting .305/.406/.441 in 68 DWL PAs.
Sam Narron started on Friday for Cibao, and allowed three earned runs on seven hits in just 3.1 innings, walking none and striking out one. He's posted a 4.50 ERA in 18 innings, walking six and striking out seven.
Juan Sandoval pitched 4.1 innings over three outings, allowing two runs on three hits and a walk, striking out three. He has a 2.89 ERA in 9.1 innings of work.

Please welcome our new weekend editors!

KLSnow — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 18:29:05 -0000

Last week I asked for applicants for a new Weekend Editor position here at BCB, and today I'm proud to announce that three weekend editors have been brought on board.

If you've visited the comments section, you're probably familiar with NoahJ, Morineko and Fatter than Joey. Starting tomorrow, the three of them will be responsible for weekend content here on the site, working on a rotation. NoahJ will debut tomorrow, with Morineko and FTJ making their debuts in the weeks to come.

Please join me in welcoming them on board!

Looking back at community projections: Second basemen

KLSnow — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 02:38:40 -0000

More photos » by Jim Prisching - AP

Rickie Weeks tosses his bat to one of the five other Brewers to play his position in 2009. The bat was later stolen by Prince Fielder, who used it to win the Home Run Derby, if I recall correctly.

Browse more photos »

Ok, after a day off for The Thinker, let's jump back into this with a look at second basemen:

Take a moment to think, once again, about what happened at second base for the Brewers, and the somewhat miraculous results. Early in the season, Rickie Weeks went down for the year and the Brewers were left with turmoil at the top of the order and at second base. Six players played second at one point or another for the Brewers, yet somehow the position was one of the team's most productive.

Projections:

Rickie Weeks
Projected: .257/.362/.425
Actual: .272/.340/.517

Craig Counsell
Projected: .231/.322/.332
Actual: .285/.357/.408

Casey McGehee
Projected: ..279/.334/.393
Actual: .301/.360/.499

TheJay, while refusing to predict exactly who would end up playing in Weeks' place, nearly nailed a 2009 prediction for Weeks, saying: "Hey, someone has to figure he’ll both bash up his wrist again and hit about what he’s done so far in his career." Wekks was ahead of his career numbers at the time, but sure enough, a wrist injury ended his season significantly early.

Craig Counsell's playing time projection at this and the other infield positions will probably seem low, but keep in mind, Counsell wasn't actually re-signed for 2009 yet when we made these projections.

Finally, there's probably not a single player at any position we missed on more than Casey McGehee. Back in January, we collectively projected him to get roughly two and a half percent of the plate appearances at second base, and didn't project him to play third at all.

Playing time:

Player	Projected %	Actual %	Diff
Rickie Weeks	80.2%	21.2%	-59%
Jason Bourgeois	6.1%	0%	-6.1%
Hernan Iribarren	5.6%	.4%	-5.2%
Alcides Escobar	2.7%	0%	-2.7%
Casey McGehee	2.7%	12.1%	+9.4%
Craig Counsell	2.2%	27.1%	+24.9%
Bill Hall	.5%	0%	-.5%
Felipe Lopez	0%	38.6%	+38.6%
Frank Catalanotto	0%	.5%	+.5%

Wow, look at that mess. I didn't even know how to sort this table to appropriately display the chaos. And yet somehow, it worked.

At this point in January, Jason Bourgeois had just wrapped up a long hitting streak in Mexico, and if you had told me the Brewers would use six second basemen in 2009 and he wouldn't be one of them, I would have been shocked. In a world where Craig Counsell had yet to re-sign, Bourgeois projected to be Weeks' top backup. Instead, he spent most of the season patrolling the outfield in Nashville.

Overall:

	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Projected	.258	.354	.413	.767
Actual	.302	.378	.475	.852
Difference	+.044	+.024	+.062	+.085

The Thursday Thinker: Thinking about Ben Sheets

KLSnow — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 18:59:51 -0000

In 2004, Ben Sheets had one of the best pitching seasons in Brewer history. How many Brewers with comparable seasons can you name? Photo via fullcountpitch.com

View full size photo »

Before I left on vacation, we had a couple of extended conversations about Ben Sheets and his value. Sheets had the best season of his career in 2004, going 12-14 with a 2.70 ERA in 237 innings, striking out 264.

Only six pitchers in Brewer history, including Sheets, have ever finished a season with a sub-3.00 ERA and over 200 innings pitched. How many can you name in five minutes?

Again, here are the rules: Post your score in the comments, but don't comment on any specific answer until after 6 pm Central time, so everyone gets a chance to try it out without having it spoiled for them. And, of course, there's no reason to cheat here, because there's no prizes.

Since there are only six answers, odds are someone will get a perfect score. If you manage to get them all, post your time along with your score in the comments. With that said, don't be too embarrassed if you forget a couple (I wouldn't have gotten them all).

Have fun, and don't forget to post your score in the comments!

Looking Back at Community Projections: First Basemen

KLSnow — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 21:00:23 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Curry - AP

Prince Fielder's 2009 numbers look even better when compared to what we expected.

Browse more photos »

Projections:

Prince Fielder
Projected: .284/.380/.547
Actual: .299/.412/.602

Obviously, we all got significantly more than we bargained for from Fielder this season. Not only did he start all 162 games and pick every Brewer at bat at first base, he slugged over .600, a full 25 points above the most optimistic of the 13 projections, and surpassed our OBP expectations by 32 points as well.

Playing time:

Player	Projected %	Actual %	Diff
Prince Fielder	93%	100%	+7%
Brad Nelson	3.5%	0%	-3.5%
Mike Lamb	2.2%	0%	-2.2%
Mike Rivera	1.3%	0%	-1.3%

I'd say this is pretty self-explanatory. While all of us expected Fielder to play close to full time, none of us expected him to take every plate appearance by a Brewer first baseman this season. Brad Nelson was off the roster early, Mike Lamb didn't even make the team out of spring training and Mike Rivera never saw time at first. Casey McGehee was the only other Brewer to play there this season: He played four innings defensively and did not bat.

Overall:

	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Projected	.282	.376	.538	.927
Actual	.299	.412	.602	1.014
Difference	+.017	+.036	+.066	+.087