SB Nation User Blog: KP Corleone

2K9 Trade Drawer, aka The "Wright" Stuff

KP Corleone — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 00:27:37 -0000

You may recall that, way back in the mid-eighties, when many of us were either in diapers or elementary school (hopefully not both), or just a gleam in our parents' eye, a ground-breaking rhymic sensation that called themselves New Kids On The Block ("NKOTB" - you may recall all the "I heart NKOTB" buttons; that was back when it was normal to wear buttons outside of TGI Fridays) released a smash hit called "You Got It (The Wright Stuff)."

It was misspelled on their album cover, unfortunately - obscuring the fact that the classic anthem was actually about potential trade prospects for the Blazers prior to the '09 trading deadline. We should've known.

Flash forward to the present. Now, the official NKOTB website has an announcement: "We're back."

All this time, the world has been waiting. And, it just so happens the best two available young players to provide some depth and rebounding at the SF/PF spots are Julian Wright and Brandan Wright.

Coincidence? No. NKOTB foresaw more than the future of pop... they foresaw that Channing Frye, Travis Outlaw, and Ike Diagu would not be the longterm answer for a young dynasty developing in PDX.

Hollinger had this to say today about Julian Wright, the young Hornets SF who looked great last year in limited minutes but can't seem to crack Byron Scott's rotation at all this season.

In looking at the non-Lakers contenders in the West, one important question is: Which teams have the pieces in place to make further upgrades to their rosters? With that in mind, here's a name to file away: Julian Wright.

Wright is a talented forward for the Hornets who can handle the ball, defend, rebound and score in transition. He's also not playing. The Hornets are big on floor spacing so that Chris Paul has plenty of room for his pick-and-roll magic, and Wright can't shoot. He's also had some difficulty remembering assignments, according to recent comments by coach Byron Scott, and that might also be affecting his playing time.

Either way, it makes him an interesting commodity as we head toward the trade deadline. The Hornets don't have large expiring contracts or other enticements to put into a deal for some much-needed frontcourt help -- if they do anything, it's with Wright as the bait. I wouldn't expect New Orleans to surrender him cheaply, but if the Hornets make any deals, he almost has to be the centerpiece.

Meanwhile, Brother Brandan (listed as a SF for some reason but really a pure PF) has been mired on the bench for much of the season in Golden State, and when he has played his PER has been through the roof at almost 20. He has also been mentioned (more directly) by the media as being on the market.

Which guy would you be interested in, if either? Would another "prospect" with "potential" be one (or two, or four) too many?

Here's a potential deal: Channing Frye (maybe plus the rights to the Finn) for Julian plus filler.

Here's another: Travis Outlaw (though they might be more interested in Sergio) for Brandan plus filler.

Poll

Which deal whets your pallet?

Blazers are now a "lock" for the playoffs, according to Hollinger's Playoff Odds You have to be...

KP Corleone — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 19:14:13 -0000

Blazers are now a "lock" for the playoffs, according to Hollinger's Playoff Odds

You have to be an espn insider to read the article, but here's what Hollinger says about P-town:

"Portland has become the fourth team to attain lock status in the Playoff Odds, improving to 100 percent after Wednesday's win over the Wizards pushed the Blazers' record to 14-6. This means that Portland makes the playoffs in at least 4,998 of our 5,000 scenarios, a welcome development after spending the past half-decade in the lottery wilderness.

Portland is also one of only four teams that project as certain to finish with a winning record. The Blazers' worst-case scenario has them at 41-41, which would match last season's mark; so between the playoff projection and the win projection, they're guaranteed to have a better season than last.

While it might seem premature to declare anyone a lock, the Blazers seem about as close as you could get. With six West teams basically eliminated already, they would have to finish behind all eight of the other contenders -- meaning none of those others teams could suffer a major setback. Additionally, the Blazers' enviable depth insulates them from a key injury in a way that few others teams can claim; at every position, they have enough backup to squeeze out at least 27 wins over the final three-quarters of the schedule."

Hollinger's Insider Gems

The W was the lipstick, and that game was a pig

KP Corleone — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 14:36:28 -0000

Worst. Win. Ever.

Look, winning games when you play terrible is a good thing. Winning home games against bad teams missing their best player when you play THAT terrible?

Ok, still a good thing. But not as good.

From Lamarcus, to Greg, to Rudy, to Travis, there were negatives all around in this one. Nobody except the vets and the all-star (Joelzilla (love that), Blake, and Roy) looked like they gave a crap. Pryz had a great game. Scrappy. He's having a heckuva season so far. Stevie did what he does. Hit open shots, played smart, went all out, and got sliced and diced on D. Roy stepped up under pressure like he always does, although I'd like to see him demand the ball more when other guys are struggling.

Other than those three guys, everybody made mental errors. Nobody REALLY hustled. Nobody consistently scrapped.

Part of it, undoubtedly, was the lack of energy in the building. It's just hard to get pumped up for Sac-town at home, minus their best player, after blowing them out in their gym two days ago. It is. The NBA scheduling team should go back to the drawing board and NOT have teams play each other twice in the same four-day span. Can't we figure that out? Is it that difficult? Completely lets the air out of the game.

But still. Come on, guys. I would be mad at a third-grade rec league team for playing that hard. You're in the NBA. I know you're a young team. You're not going to have your A game every night. But you've got to figure out a way to bust your tail anyway. The execution's not always going to be there. The effort needs to be.

Coming off the most lackadaisical effort of the year (win or loss), my question to Blazernation is this: you worried? And if so, about what?

(I'm not talking long term. Portland's embarassment of riches has been well documented. RLEC is a gold mine. All that cap space is like a scalpel - and KP is the best surgeon there is. B-Rex is in waiting, and he's going to be a stud. Oden, Rudy, and Nic will all get much better. LMA and even Roy will too. I could go on.)

But what about the immediate future? THIS year? Dallas, San Antonio, Denver... in all likelihood, one of these teams must be displaced for the Blazers to make the playoffs. Looked at first like Dallas and/or SA would finally kick the bucket, but it's not happening. The Billups trade has made Denver a legit contender for the first time. They're not going anywhere.

Notwithstanding Hollinger's crystal ball, here in the real world, the Blazers are not 97.1% likely to make the playoffs...

Poll

What will do the most to make sure they get there?

Just stay the course. Bad games happen. The season's going great.

24 votes

Improvement on D. The rain of threes will not continue. The Blazers are not making the playoffs as one of the five worst defensive teams in the league.

37 votes

Lamarcus, Lamarcus, anybody home? Once his game comes back for good, it's all downhill from there.

16 votes

The Odenator. He needs to step up THIS year on a consistent basis. We need him to change the D and make space for shooters. And a smile or two would be nice. For a couldabeen dentist, we never see his teeth.

2 votes

A healthy Martell. He improves the O. He improves the D. He's the glue.

9 votes

Brandon has to regulate. He's playing great, but when guys aren't busting their butts, B-Roy has to let them know.

11 votes

99 votes | Poll has closed

Rudy is absolutely killing it, and other premature statistical conclusions based on 8.5% of the season...

KP Corleone — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 18:25:44 -0000

Along the same lines as jksnake99's Fun with Small Sample Sizes post from a week or two back, the more numerically inclined (read: dorkier) of you might want to check out 82games.com, which just kicked off their advanced stats for 08-09.

One of the most interesting stats on 82games is efficiency differential (points scored per 100 possessions, and points allowed per 100 possessions) when a particular player is on/off the court. This is basically a more evolved version of plus/minus. As Dave and others have pointed out, stats like plus/minus are most useful over the long haul. Tendencies that have started to emerge over 7 games might just as likely reverse themselves as continue through the rest of the season. But even at this early stage of the season, some interesting patterns have started to emerge.

The stats mostly reinforce what you already know, but there are a few interesting surprises.

Rudy has been everything we hoped he would be (and more). The Blazers have been 16.6 points per 100 possessions better with Rudy on the court. That's a number comparable to what the Lebrons, Nowitzkis, Ginoblis, Nashes, and CP3s of the world posted last year. (Nobody on the Blazers had an efficiency differential of higher than 6.) That number will likely decrease over the course of the season. But it does illustrate that, so far, Rudy has taken all that ridiculous preseason/Olympic hype and somehow, some way, EXCEEDED expectations.

LMA is playing (even) better than you think. Early on, Aldridge struggled. But over the last few games he has turned things around in a BIG way. The Blazers have been 19.8 points per 100 possessions better with LMA on the court. All of this differential is on the offensive side - with LMA off the court, the Blazers have mustered only 95 points per 100 possessions (bad), but with LMA on the court, they've scored 117 (phenomenal). Again, this difference will shrink as the season progresses, but overall LMA has been the most important player on the team (except for Roy's late game heroics).

Roy has struggled early, but dominated down the stretch. B-Roy's overall struggles have been masked by dominant performances down the stretch. The Blazers have been 13.7 points per 100 possessions worse with Roy on the court. (This is a trend I would expect to reverse itself. Roy led the Blazers in efficiency differential last year.) But Roy has scored over 45 points per 48 minutes of "clutch" time (4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points). Again, not much of a surprise here.

Batum is playing well, but not necessarily on the defensive end. As others have noted, Batum's plus/minus has been strong, and his efficiency differential of +11.8 points per 100 possessions reflects this. But the interesting thing (considering his defensive stopper rep) is that, so far, he's made more of a difference on the offensive end. On D, the Blazers have given up 121 points per 100 possessions with Boom Boom on the court (terrible), versus 110 with him on the bench (still not good, but a little better). It will be interesting to see if this continues.

Trout has shot the ball well but hurt the team's rhythm. Trout has looked great in some ways - primarily shooting the three. But he appears out of sorts and out of rythm on both ends, and the numbers reflect it. The Blazers have been 16.4 points per 100 possessions worse with Trout in the game.

Just like last year, the Blazers are better with Frye on the court than Joel. With Pryz on the court, the Blazers have been 19.3 points per 100 possessions worse. With Frye on the court, the Blazers have been 11.3 points better. This is a huge difference. There could be any number of theories to explain it, but it has been consistent (though not nearly as dramatic) since last year. I attribute some of this differential to the effect Pryz has on LMA. With Pryz in the game, LMA cannot get any room to operate inside, as Pryz is a non-factor on that end. So LMA tends to drift out and toss up 22-foot bricks. Frye keeps the defense honest and LMA has more room (inside and out) with Frye on the court.

Blake has struggled defensively. This is another stat not likely to surprise many people. While the Blazers have been about 4 points per 100 possessions better on offense with Blake on the court, they've been over 11 points worse on D. Blake has consistently been beaten badly off the dribble, albeit by some very good point guards.

The Blazers best 5-man unit has been Sergio-Rudy-Trout-LMA-Frye. It's far too early to make assessments about who plays best together, but so far (including last night), this has been the Blazers most effective unit. They have scored 137 points per 100 possessions and given up less than 95. Again, however, the sample size is too small to get excited about this one.

It will be interesting to see which of these patterns hold. Hopefully, LMA and Rudy will continue to dominate, Roy will expand his phenomenal play in the clutch to the first three quarters, and Oden will make a positive impact all around. All in all, I think Blazers fans have to be ecstatic about a 4-3 start with such a difficult schedule thus far (and with injuries to two projected starters). The best is yet to come...

Even David Berri (of Wages of Wins) likes the Blazers this year

KP Corleone — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 20:09:14 -0000

Even David Berri (of Wages of Wins) likes the Blazers this year

Berri's "win score" formula is a stat that, when added for all the players on a team and controlled for defensive efficiency, tracks pretty closely with actual Ws. Berri just released his Blazers preview for this year. It's worth a quick read.

Berri attributes much of the Blazers success last year to Roy and ... wait for it ... Pryz. Some have said that the "win score" stat overvalues rebounds and undervalues shots created (or "usage rate"), so it's actually not all that surprising that Pryz would get so much love from Berri.

Berri predicts 45-50 wins this year for Portland - if Oden is productive right away - and says the hope for title contention (in years to come) is that Oden, Fernandez, Roy, and Pryz continue to develop. Not bad, considering that last year he expected a win total in the low twenties.

As an aside, the "win score" formula tends to consider LMA one of the most overrated players in the league, versus other more traditional measures like PER, NBA efficiency or points per game - because LMA's a below avg rebounder for his position and a relatively inefficient scorer. My money's on both those things things improving this year, though...

Editorial aside number two: In the argument of win score vs. PER/NBA efficiency/ppg, I think the "truth" is somewhere in the middle. For instance, PER rewards inefficient scoring (giving players credit for any shot over 33% likely to go in), and win score overvalues rebounds and requires too much efficiency (giving players no credit for a TS% less than 50). So LMA is both better than his win score, and worse than his PER, up to this point in his career. Hopefully this year, he leaves no room for doubt.

Bayless v. Rose? Choose your own adventure...

KP Corleone — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 17:42:35 -0000

Pretend you're KP. (Yes, it's pointless. No, this will never happen. Yes, this is really long. No, this is not an accurate portrayal of JP. This is just for purposes of debate. Humor me.) You just had lunch with Nelson Mandela, and he asked you for advice on how to win friends and influence people. You got back to your office and sat down to review an advanced regression analysis that projects between 6-9 championships over the next 15 years, depending on which guy(s) you're able to bring in this summer with all that cap space. Your phone rings. It's your assistant.

Assistant: Kevin, John Paxson on the phone. He sounds like he's been drinking.

You: Again? What is it, 3 'o clock Chicago time? Ok, what the heck, put him through.

You pick up the phone.

Paxson: Kevvy Boy! My man. Listen to me. Ok. So. I've got this guy I drafted. Devin Rose. He's good.

You: I know that guy. Big fan of Derrick. What about him?

Paxson: Well, I screwed up, kind of. This guy. Devin. He's from Chicago. Southside. He's got friends. Hundreds of them. Thousands.

You: I'm sure he does. He's a good kid.

Paxson: Yes. He is. But listen. These friends, they want tickets. They want loans. From Darin. From me. They're outside climbling on the Jordan statue right now. They're his posse. I'm scared of posses. It's almost happy hour. I have to do something. I've been watching this other kid you have on NBA.com. What's his name. Gerald. Gerald Bayness. He's good.

You: Yeah, Jerryd's a great kid. We really like him. He's got a chance to be special.

Paxson: That's what I think. Special. So listen. We like Gerald. He doesn't have friends. Not in Chicago. They won't climb statues. We want him.

You: I'm listening.

Paxson: I'll swap 'em. Straight up. Darin for Gerald. Plus a bottle of Jack. Sometime. Anytime. How 'bout today.

You: Well, that's an interesting offer, John. Tell you what. I want to talk it over with my people. Can I call you back?

You hang up and hit the big red button under your desk. Within seconds, four of your top guys slide down firemen's poles into your office. You give them the rundown. You ask for their thoughts.

Top Scout 1: Rose was the number one pick. Oden was the number one pick. I like number one picks. Pritchslap. Do the deal.

Top Scout 2: Rose put the other 11 players at Memphis, and Coach Cal, and Worldwide Wes, on his rather amazingly strong back and carried them kicking and screaming through the NCAA tourney. They almost won. I cried during One Shining Moment. It was magical. Do the deal.

Top Scout 3: Rose is legit. He's a pass first point guard with upside. He has nuclear athleticism. He's the next Chris Paul, with the size of LeBron James. His wingspan makes me think that, in time, he may actually learn to fly. Do the deal.

Top Scout 4: Listen. I was out drinking at lunch, too. But hear me out. Isn't it possible Rose got a little overrated during that tournament run? Weren't his stats pretty similar to Bayless's stats? Didn't he play for a much better team, with elite talent surrounding him, against mostly inferior athletes? Rose averaged 4.7 assists per game, Jerryd 4.0, with subpar teammates, in a superior conference. Jerryd had more turnovers, but he scored more.

Top Scout 1: Be quiet. You're an idiot. Go sober up.

Top Scout 4: Hold on just one second. Wasn't Jeryyd's situation at Arizona pretty much a worst case scenario? Didn't Rose look pretty ordinary in a mock NBA environment in Orlando? Didn't Jerryyd look pretty incredible in Vegas?

Top Scout 2: It's summer league!

Top Scout 3: Marco Belinelli! Nate Robinson! Marcus Banks!

Top Scout 4: I'm just saying Rose and Bayless didn't look that far apart in college. Rose was the concensus number two prospect, Jerryd the concensus number four. Jerryd slid a bit, yes, with our help. That was a windfall. But here's my point: given how close they looked in college, and how dramatically far apart they looked in summer league, doesn't that tilt the balance? Isn't Jerryd a better shooter? Won't he fit in nicely with Brandon? Are we ready to waive goodbye to the Bayless face? Is there such a thing as the Rose face? I don't want to find out. Maybe I'm insane. Don't do the deal.

Your assistant pokes her head in.

Assistant: Paxson's on the line again. He says he's going to trade Rose to an Italian league team for a Lamborghini if you don't pull the trigger right now.

You: Go ahead and put him through...

Poll

What do you tell him?

Deal! Where do I ship your whiskey?

237 votes

Thanks, but we have to pass. Call a taxi.

185 votes

422 votes | Poll has closed