As I promised last week, here's a log5 calculator for the NCAA tournament. This one's a lot more surprising than that one, at least, I was surprised. The most likely champ by these numbers is, predictably enough, Kentucky. Log5 gives the Cats a 19.38% shot to cut down the nets in the Superdome three weeks from tonight. However, the second-most likely champion is.... Ohio State, at 19.07%. This doesn't jibe with the rankings or the seedings, but it does jibe perfectly with the Pomeroy rankings, which have the Buckeyes right behind Kentucky at the top. Also interesting is that, of the top seeds, only Michigan State and Kentucky are the log5 favorites to represent their regions in the Final Four, along with #2 seeds Ohio State and Kansas.

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These are log5 projections for next week's SEC Tournament. As expected, Kentucky is the overwhelming favorite to win the whole thing (The Wildcats are 68.53% to win the championship, a little better than 3 to 1 odds). Also unsurprisingly, Vanderbilt has the second best survival rating for the tournament at 13.36%. Tennessee somehow ended up with the two-seed but the numbers say they're the fifth-most likely to win it, although their chances (3.77%) are only marginally worse than the chances of Alabama winning four games in four days (3.94%). Pythagorean Win Percentages for the calculations are taken from Ken Pomeroy's most wonderful hoops site. If you don't know what log5 is or how it's calculated, there's a really good article and explanation here. This is the fourth year I've done the log5 calculator for the SECT, and other than the year when Georgia shocked everyone and won the thing, it's been fairly accurate. Anyway, enjoy if you're interested. I'll have one next week for the NCAA tournament.

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Here's the log5 projections for this week's SEC tournament. It's a bit surprising, but the numbers really like UK. Pythagorean Win Percentages are taken from Ken Pomeroy's site. If you don't know what log5 is or how it's calculated, there's a really good article and explanation here. This is the fourth year I've done the log5 calculator for the SECT, and other than the year when Georgia shocked everyone and won the thing, it's been fairly accurate. Keep in mind these are probabilities and not predictions. Anyway, enjoy if you're interested.

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As promised last week, here's the log5 predictor for the NCAA tourney. Pythagorean Win Percentages are again taken from Ken Pomeroy's most excellent stats site.

According to the predictor, Kentucky is roughly a 5-to-1 underdog to make the Final Four and about 25-to-1 to cut down the nets on April 5.

More following the jump.

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These are log5 projections for next week's SEC Tournament. As expected, Kentucky is the favorite to win the whole thing (The Wildcats are 42.47% to win the championship, a little better than 2.5 to 1 odds). Also unsurprisingly, Vanderbilt has the second best survival rating for the tournament at 19.22%. Pythagorean Win Percentages are taken from Ken Pomeroy's site. If you don't know what log5 is or how it's calculated, there's a really good article and explanation here. This is the third year I've done the log5 calculator for the SECT, and other than the year when Georgia shocked everyone and won the thing, it's been fairly accurate. Anyway, enjoy if you're interested. I'll have one next week for the NCAA tournament.

Pat Forde wrote what I thought was an excellent article on ESPN.com yesterday about the Calipari hire. Here's the link: http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/columns/story?columnist=forde_pat&id=4032093&sportCat=ncb

I think some of the concerns Forde discusses (especially World Wide Wes) are spot-on and the article is both thoughtful and fair, two things you often don't get from the Worldwide Cheerleader. Anyway, thought you guys might be interested.