Sergio Romo (San Francisco Giants) was demoted/out of options today.  Meaning, he can be acquired by any team.  25 year old RHP.

His statistics before his brief MLB appearances this year (4.41 ERA, 16 K/16 IP)

2008 -- AA, 27 IP, 30/7 K/BB, 4.00 ERA, 1.07 WHIP

2007-- A+, 66.1 IP, 106/15 K/BB, 1.36 ERA, 0.75 WHIP

Can we have him, please?  Perfect addition to the bull-pen.  Incredible strike out ratios.

I've been noodling on this the last couple of days.

It's an insane idea that would cause an outcry among a LOT of fans on here.  It would be an extremely gutsy move for a new GM like Mo and it would frustrate a lot of people.

But I'm not so sure it's a bad idea.

Here's how I look at it:

Pujols will be 29 next year -- meaning we are probably coming to the end of his best years between the ages of 26 and 30 pretty soon.  Furthermore, I'm inclined to think that with Pujols' nagging injuries, that he's one of those guys that has a tendency to age a bit faster than other ballplayers.

He's an incredible offensive threat, but he is not completely irreplaceable.  He plays a position that has 3 players in the NLwho can put up the similar numbers (Howard, Berkman, Fielder.)

 There's no denying that he's a fan favorite, and we are all blinded by the great moments he's had -- Lidge HR, game-winning HRs, etc. etc.

There are about 5 teams that would be willing to trade for Pujols -- Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, Angels or Dodgers. 

Our glaring needs are 2 middle infielders, MAYBE an SP, and a reliever. 

How about a trade scenario like this: Pujols to the Dodgers for SP Clayton Kershaw, CP Jonathan Broxton, SS Chin-Lung Hu.

We instantly have the BEST pitching prospect in the league, an incredible closer, and a glove-first middle infielder who is miles ahead of Ryan, Izturis, etc.

Mo would then not have to worry about signing a pitcher in the off-season, and go with Carp, Wainwright, Wells, Garcia, Pineiro/Boggs/Todd, then we could let Lohse walk, and not have to worry about throwing 8-9 mil. for a starting pitcher. 

That means we could sign Mark Teixeira in the off-season, who is the same age as Pujols, and is a damn good 1st baseman.

Your 09 line-up is something like this:

C Molina, 1B Teixeira, 2B Miles/Ryan , 3B Glaus, SS Hu/Ryan , LF Ludwick, CF Rasmus, RF Ankiel

Your rotation:

SP Carpenter, SP Wainwright, SP Wellemeyer, SP Kershaw, SP Looper/Pineiro/Garcia

Now you can trade one of Looper, Pineiro, and Garcia, for a 2nd baseman.

Your bullpen features 3 excellent relievers -- 7th inning McClellan, 8th inning Perez, 9th inning Broxton.  The trauma caused by Franklin/Izzy is nowhere to be seen.

Baseball is a business -- while we love Pujols, we can greatly improve the program at this point by trading him.

Available here.

Here were the Cardinals:

#3 Colby Rasmus (ETA May 2009)

#55 Jess Todd (ETA Sept 2008)

#58 Bryan Anderson (ETA 2010)

#91 Clayton Mortensen (ETA Aug 2009)

#115 Adam Ottavino (ETA Aug 2009)

It also says that the ineligable players Jaime Garcia and Brett Wallace WOULD have ranked #35 and #90 respectively.

There were a couple of screwy ones in there.. guys like Brandon Wood, Neftali Perez, Taylor Teagarden, and Elvis Andrus were extremely overrated

I’m a Cardinals fan.  I enjoy watching the Cardinals.  I support them if they win or lose.  But right now, they’re just being stupid.  With the Cardinals about to fall into 3rd place in the division, it is becoming increasingly unlikely that the Cardinals will make the playoffs. 

 

Yes, after 2 months, the Cardinals looked sharp.   Ryan Ludwick seemed to emerge from a cloud of unknown AAAA wash-ups, and seemed ready to be the best outfielder in the NL.

 

Unfortunately for us, the shine wore off. 

 

Chris Duncan struggled to hit over the Mendoza line.  I think a lot of people (including myself, look back through my posts) could see a drop-off was imminent. 

His 2006 SLG % was .589.

His 2007 SLG % was .480.

In 2006 he was striking out ¼ at-bats

In 2007 it was down to 1/3 at-bats.

Now his slugging percentage is .333.

 

Frankly, Chris Duncan is not a very good baseball player.  He simply has no value for us anymore.  Aside from a glowing 2006 break-out season, and a fairly mediocre 2007 season, he has never been considered a special player.  He was never a top prospect or anything like that.  He’s destined to be a all-hit, no field corner outfielder who bounces between AAA and the ML for the rest of his career. 

 

Drop him for whatever we can get.  

 

On to Ryan Ludwick.  He put up absolutely tremendous numbers this season.  Unfortunately, he’s 5 for his last 37.  He was playing WAAAY over his head.  In his career, he’s probably going to be a fairly consistent player to hit .250-.260 with 20-25 HRs each year.  He clearly could not keep this rate up.

 

Trade him at the deadline for whatever we can get.

 

I’m not even going to mention Mulder and Carpenter.  I don’t think anyone had realistic expectations for any pitcher to come back from a surgery which takes 1-2 years to heal, and lead the team in the middle of the season.  Wishful thinking.

 

On to Kyle Lohse.  Why would the Cardinals keep a guy, who simply doesn’t miss enough bats to be productive?  As he falls back to his norm of league average pitcher, can the Cardinals even THINK about giving this guy 12 mil. in the off-season?  We can get a very good prospect right now for him.  It’s crazy to keep him around. 

 

Don’t forget about Braden Looper.  There’s nothing that lead anyone to believe he’d have an ERA near 4.00 at this point.

 

Todd Wellemeyer.  I don’t really see any arguments against him.  He came out of nowhere and has performed very well, but he has better K/9 numbers than Lohse, and has anchored the staff w/ Wainwright.  I would expect him to be more of a 4.25-4.50 ERA guy next year, but he could be a slightly above average SP for a few years.

 

So who does that leave for 2009?

 

C – Yadier Molina

1B – Albert Pujols

2B -- ???

SS – Cesar Izturis

3B – Troy Glaus

LF – Rick Ankiel

CF – Colby Rasmus

RF – Skip Schumaker

 

Reserve C – Bryan Anderson

Reserve IF – Brendan Ryan

Reserve IF – Aaron Miles

Reserve OF – Brian Barton

Reserve OF – Joe Mather

 

SP – Adam Wainwright

SP2 – Todd Wellemeyer

SP3 – Braden Looper

SP4 – Jaime Garcia

SP5 – (tentatively Chris Carpenter)

Alternate: Mitch Boggs

LRP: Ryan Franklin

LRP: Brad Thompson

MRP: Tyler Johnson

SU: Kyle McClellan

CP: Chris Perez

 

That means, by 2009, we have cut or traded:

Adam Kennedy

Joel Pineiro

Mark Mulder

Jason LaRue

Kelvin Jimenez

Randy Flores

Ron Villone

Jason Isringhausen

Anthony Reyes

Kyle Lohse

Ryan Ludwick

Chris Duncan

 

That leaves the Cardinals with only a couple of needs.  Most importantly, a corner outfielder who can hit with power, and hopefully, a 2B by that some point who isn’t an absolute filler.

 

So, what exactly are the Cardinals trying to achieve right now?  Yes, the Cardinals WERE impressive in their first 2 ½ months of the season, but they have been playing over their heads for the whole year.  Even if they got to the play-offs, does anyone expect them to hold up through 3 rounds of the best teams, with a bullpen that is 7-18?!  It would be a heart-wrenching defeat.  Bottom line was: Not only were the stars (Pujols, Wainwright, Molina, etc) producing, but the perceived mediocre fillers and wash-ups were performing, too.  There is/was no way the Cardinals could have expected this type of projection out of the Cardinals.  By the end of the season, expect Lohse’s ERA to be 4.50, Welle’s to be 4.00, Ludwick to be batting .250, and Ankiel to be batting .240.  It’s nice that Lohse has been productive, Ludwick was an All-Star candidate, and Ankiel was a Cinderella story, but this is a business.  lefty fan was right, it’s time to rebalance the portfolio.

i wrote this during the evening, and figured i would post it here for some feedback and thoughts.  for my overall grade, i took into consideration the player's ability and ceiling/organizational needs/other talent on board.  i did not take into consideration the cash the players they were looking for.

1. tb ss tim beckham, hs -- in a year that lacked a consensus #1 pick, rays fans will quickly make comparisons to bj upton, drafted w/ the 2nd pick of the 02 draft, who also came up as a shortstop.  beckham isn't quite up to par with bj, (or for that matter, upton,) and he probably won't be in the mlb when he's 19 like the uptons.  he brings an interesting skill set of all 5 tools to the table, and has the highest ceiling among all position players.  the rays do not need any additional help in the infield, but any pitcher here would have been a big reach.  grade: b

2. pit 3b pedro alvarez, vandy -- thought to be the #1 overall pick since 2007, alvarez slumped in his jr. year with a hand injury.  however, he has the most advanced college bat of the 08 class, and he will be able to contribute in pitt. very quickly.  he gives the pirates a power-bat that the buccs desperately need.  grade: a-

3. kc 1b eric hosmer, hs -- extremely solid-around first baseman.  he doesn't quite have the power of smoak in my eyes, but he is an advanced hs hitter and the royals will push him.  1b might not have been the biggest need in kc with billy butler there, but he adds a much needed bat to their lineup.  grade: b-

4.  bal lhp brian matusz, usd -- he is considered the best pitching prospect in the draft, but i do not like his arm action at all. seems to be that he brings his arm extremely far behind his body and it looks like he puts a ton of stress on his shoulder.  its no surprise that he went this far, but he looks like a tremendous risk to me.  i have a feeling he'll follow in the footsteps of bullington, gruler, loewen, sleeth, stauffer, etc.  big name picks who tank.  grade: c-

5.  sf c buster posey, fsu -- not a fan of this pick with smoak on the board.  giants need hitting and posey could provide is a good candidate to hit .300 with 15-20 hrs a year, but this isn't the hitter they want.  i think posey is an extremely solid all-around hitter, but this isn't the right choice.  grade: b-

6. fla c kyle skipworth, hs -- this kid looks to be the real deal with the bat -- extremely smooth swing that reminds me of another lh hs player the marlins drafted -- hermida.  there's always the concern that he won't be able to stay behind the plate, but skipworth is the real deal with the bat. grade: b+

7. cin 1b yonder alonso, miami -- first poor reach of the draft.  this pick makes no sense to me.  alonso is a big, lumbering 1b who can develop power but has no other tools.  the reds already have joey votto at 1b, anyhow.  he's not even the best 1b still on the board.  this pick addresses no needs.  grade: d+

8. chw ss gordon beckham, georgia -- i'm not really sure what to make of this pick.  beckham has been absolutely outstanding w/ wooden bats at the cape, and he's put up eye-popping numbers.  it seems to me that his scouting videos reveal some problems (doesn't use his lower body, extremely upright when he swings.)  i'm guessing that he rolled over a lot of balls in college but an aluminum bat combined with very good athletic ability turned outs in the milb into hits in college.  i have a feeling he'll end up being a 2b in the long run.  sox get an important need with a potent bat.  he's an interesting pick here -- not a ton of projectibility, and i'll be interested to see how he performs this year.  for now.. grade: b-

9. was rhp aaron crow, mizz -- the first thing i noticed was that he has the dreaded "inverted w" w/ his arm action.  i remembered i read the term somewhere on the internet, and i found it on this guy's page:

http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/Baseball/Pitching/RethinkingPitching/Essays/DeathToTheInvertedW.html

so i found it interesting when i typed "aaron crow + injury" on google, i found this page, as i had him confused with scheppers for some reason.

http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/Baseball/Pitching/ProfessionalPitcherAnalyses/AaronCrow.html

same problem as mark prior, etc. he'll be out of baseball with that injury.  college pitcher is a good pick for the nationals, but this guy is a dud.  grade: d

10. hou c jason castro, stanford -- another early reach of the draft.  castro was supposed to fall to the 2nd half of the first rd.  this pick puzzles me; the astros have towles already, and catching is not the biggest of their needs.  however, castro has a smooth swing, and has the athletic ability to play elsewhere (corner if.)  he doesn't have a ton of power, but he strikes me as a player who can hit .290-15 each year and provide solid defense wherever he goes.  grade: c

11. tex 1b justin smoak, usc (carolina) -- best pick of the day.  smoak has the most powerful bat in the draft, and he will move extremely quickly.  that's really all that needs to be said; he should have been drafted within the first 5 picks.  texas gets an absolute steal with a switch hitter who has the ability to be a #4 hitter for years. grade: a

12. oak 2b jemile weeks, miami -- this is an intriguing pick.  most mock drafts had weeks going in the late 1st rd.  he's destined to be a lead-off batter, and i don't think he'll have any power as he has absolutely no load in his swing.  i don't think this is the place that you want to take weeks, though.  he's about as maxed out physically as he's ever going to be and there isn't a lot of potential for power.  grade: c-

13. stl 3b brett wallace, az st -- the cardinals didn't have a ton to work with at this pick, but they took the best hitter available in the draft.  he's got a very short left-handed swing with the ability to hit a ton of line drives, and he demonstrates great discipline.  good candidate to move very quickly in the draft.  he's not as bad of an athlete as his body may lend people to believe, but his arm is going to lead to a lot of throwing errors, and in a perfect world, he would be suited for 1b.  cardinals are drafting him solely for the bat.  grade: b-

14. min cf aaron hicks, hs -- hicks is a very good athlete with speed to burn, but he has a looooong swing.  this pick is entirely on projectibility right now, and i really don't like it.  twins have a bunch of cfs like gomez, bankston, span, and hicks is a very long ways away from making an impact.  i don't think he's going to be very successful in the pros with such a long swing, but there's plenty of time to tool around with it. grade: c

15. lad rhp ethan martin, hs -- overdraft at 15 as a pitcher, but i love this guy as a hitter, so im surprised that he'll be pitching.  he looks to be more like a thrower than a pitcher right now -- he just rears back and fires.  i haven't been able to get a more than brief glipse at his mechanics.  more to follow on this guy. grade: d+ as a pitcher, b as a hitter

picks #16-30 will be published tomorrow pm.  get ready for overdrafts! (cashner, fields,  perry, hewitt, chisenhall, gutierrez!) and one steal (friedrich!)

There's been a ton of talk (obviously) about who the Cardinals should take next week.  I think we need a poll just to get everyone's opinion on who the 13th overall pick of the draft should be.  The players I mentioned in the poll are the ones that have been talked about the most on VEB.  Feel free to write-in a different player if you deem it needed.  Almost all of these guys should be available by the #13 pick.  Friedrich might go 11th or 12th overall, but I think everyone else will be available.

Here's a quick breakdown:

Jake Odorizzi: Local RHP who has a very good fastball, clean mechanics.  Chance he's still around at the 37th pick.

Tim Melville: Local RHP with a very good fastball.  Needs to work on developing his secondary offerings.  Has the potential to be a dominant power pitcher.

Shooter Hunt: More of a power pitcher than Friedrich.  Right-hander features a low-90s FB with a strong curve.  Struggles with command at times.

Christian Friedrich: Strong left-hander with an average fastball, but a great 12-6 curveball.  Has average command.

Brett Lawrie: Raw RH catcher who's bat is much farther ahead of his defensive skills.  He has flown up the draft charts in the last couple of weeks.

Aaron Hicks: Left-handed, athletic outfielder with good speed and the ability to hit for power.  He has the potential to be a 5-tool player, but he's a long ways away from cracking the majors. 

 

 

 

Poll

Who should the Cardinals draft with their 13th overall pick?

13%

Jake Odorizzi (HS P)

17 votes

33%

Tim Melville (HS P)

43 votes

8%

Shooter Hunt (3YR P)

11 votes

20%

Christian Friedrich (3 YR P)

27 votes

4%

Brett Lawrie (HS C)

6 votes

9%

Aaron Hicks (HS OF)

12 votes

10%

Different guy (write-in)

13 votes

129 votes | Poll has closed

Colby Rasmus is currently hitting .183 and slugging .250 with Memphis.  2 XBH in 60 ABs no es bueno, but he does have a decent BB/K rate.  I'd expect him to come around very soon.  He's had 6 0-fers in his last 10 games though.. that can't be much fun.  Jarrett Hoffpauir is playing exactly like a lot of people predicted.  Hitting .333 so far with 4 XBH. 

AA

Bryan Anderson is having a good time in though.  The Springfielders won 20-5 last night.  He went 4-6 with a HR.  Brendan Ryan, who, apparently, isn't good enough to be in AAA, had the same line.  Allen Craig finally had a two-hit game.  I'm hoping 2007 wasn't a fluke for him -- he's only hitting .184 on the year.  Jaime Garcia has been carving guys up in AA -- 19 Ks in 15 IP.  P.J. Walters has been filthy -- he has a 1.59 ERA with 19 Ks in 17 IP, too. 

A

Jess Todd has been pitching very well -- he doesn't have the prototypical pitcher's build, but he has been very solid.  The biggest surprise has to be Daryl Jones though.  He has shown a great amount of athletic ability since he was drafted, but none of it translated into baseball skill until this year.  So far, he's hitting .302 with 4 XBH.

Low-A

Peter Kozma, first rd. pick from 2007, has .444 OBP through 53 plate appearances.

The last time the Cardinals had a draft pick selection within the top 10 was in 1998, when the Cardinals used the #5 pick on J.D. Drew.  If the Cardinals finish with a mediocre 80-82 record, I guess it could be considered a success by some means, but if we finish 70-92, chances are we'll have a draft pick in the top 5 selections.  Either way, there's a good chance the Cardinals have a very high draft selection in 2009.  I think that's something to get excited about.

So what do you think of the Cardinals pick in the 2009 draft?  I know it's an incredibly long period of time away, but we have the chance to get a really solid prospect.  The only guy I really know about for the draft class is C Robert Stock from USC, who's been on the prospect radar since his early teens.

Maybe we look at a college shortstop like Troy Tulowitzki (drafted 7th overall in 2005) or a young stud pitcher (Andrew Miller, drafted 6th in 2006.)  I would actually prefer that the Cardinals do not gamble on a pitcher -- there are way too many Tim Stauffers that are huge risks for injuries.  I'd kind of like to see us take a college outfielder (like Nick Markakis, 6th overall, 2003.)

What do we do?  

Would you do this trade?  Would the Rays do this trade?

C Bryan Anderson (DOB: 12/16/86)
6'0, 190 lb, Bats: L Throws: R

2006 (High A)
381 AB, .302 AVG, 42 BB, 66 K, .417 SLG, .794 OPS
2007 (AA)
389 AB, .298 AVG, 32 BB, 77 K, .388 SLG, .738 OPS

Anderson played in the Future's Game (and for those that haven't seen him before, he looked sharp behind the plate.)  Obviously, he is expendable.

SS Reid Brignac (DOB: 1/16/86)
6'3, 170 lb, Bats: L Throws R

2006 (High A)
411 AB, .300 AVG, 35 BB, 82 K, .560 SLG, .944 OPS
2007 (AA)
527 AB, .260 AVG, 55 BB, 94 K, .433 SLG, .761 OPS

As you can see, Brignac dropped off considerable in 2007.  The Rays only hole prospect-wise is at catcher, and everyone anticipates them to take Pedro Alvarez (a 3B) first overall in the 08 draft.  If Alvarez was groomed to be their third baseman, and Evan Longoria moved over to shortstop, Brignac would be the odd man out.  

Does this trade make sense?

I know this isn't entirely realistic, and a lot of people will argue that this is only possible in a video game, but I think these are fair trades that should draw some interest.

The following things would have had to happen by the end of the 2008 season:

Trade C Yadier Molina and SP/RP Ryan Franklin to the Rays (who desperately need a catcher) for SP James Shields.   Shields is a 26 year old righthander who put up a 3.85 ERA last year, and the Rays could use Franklin as a stopgap either in their bullpen (which is horrid) or the back of the rotation.  With Wade Davis, Jacob McGee, David Price, Jeremy Hellickson, etc. along with Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza, Shields is expendable to the Rays.  Bring up C Bryan Anderson to replace Yadier Molina.
Anderson hit nearly .300 (without much power, though) as a 20 yr. old in AA.  He is a very solid defensive catcher, and there is not as big a difference between his arm and Yadier's arm as some people think.

Bring up Jarrett Hoffpauir to play 2nd base.  Between AA and AAA, the 24 year old hit .324 with a .407 OBP and a .473 SLG.  He had a spectacular 55 BB to only 39 K.  Although he doesn't have more than average speed, Hoffpauir's on-base skills are tremendous.  

Colby Rasmus would be the starting centerfielder.  There's not much to say about him except I think he's possibly a Grady Sizemore type player.  

Now, trade utility IF Brendan Ryan and Scott Rolen for 3B Andy LaRoche.  The trade talks for LaRoche have been on and off for quite some time, and he's been wasting away in AAA for the last 2 years.  As a 24 year old, he slugged nearly .600 in AAA last season.

Now your needs in the field are a SS and 2 corner outfielders.  I would keep Cesar Izturis around, since LaRoche isn't a good fielder, and I can't imagine Hoffpauir's range is spectacular.

Next, trade Chris Duncan to the Indians for SP Jake Westbrook.  The Indians have a glut of mediocre outfielders (Delucci, Shin-Soo Choo, Michaels, Franklin Gutierrez) and aside from Grady Sizemore, the Indians don't have a lot of stability here.  Westbrook seems like a pitcher the Cardinals would be interested in.  I imagine with Edmonds and Rolen coming off the books, that the Cardinals could pick up some of this salary.  

When the 2008 FY Player Draft rolls around, we'll have the #13 pick along with a compensation pick (somewhere around 40th overall) for losing Troy Percival.  It's far too early to pick out a specific player, but I think that I'd be looking for a college pitcher with the #13 pick, a high school corner outfielder with the supplemental pick, and another college pitcher with the 2nd rd. pick.  I could see the Cardinals selecting Tyson Ross from UCalifornia (a command guy ranked #17 on Brewerfan.net,) but I would prefer to take LHP Christian Friedrich from Eastern Kentucky or RHP Jacob Thompson from Virginia.  Friedrich is more impressive in my opinion - a lefty with a huge curveball and great arm action.  

Hopefully Friedrich could progress through the system quickly - it's possible that he could be in the majors by 2010.

I'd keep backup catcher Jason LaRue around (no reason to change.)

If David Freese made progress in AA, he would probably be my backup 1B/3B by 2009-2010.  For now, Scott Spiezio will stay put.

As bad as Adam Kennedy is, he couldn't get any worse.  He would by my backup 2B in 2008.  

One problem would be dividing up the playing time in LF and RF between Ryan Ludwick, Skip Schumaker and Rick Ankiel.  Spring training would play a huge factor, and these guys would have some type of platoon going in 2008.

The biggest questions for the beginning of 2008 are who will play where in the OF.  I would let Brian Barton start in CF at the beginning of the year, and hopefully hand the job over to Rasmus in the second half.

The hitting portion of the team would look like this by the offseason of 2008-2009.  

RF Skip Schumaker (predict a -280-10-50 season)
2B Jarrett Hoffpauir (predict a -290-10-60 season)
CF Colby Rasmus (if he played the entire year, a .275-25-90 season)
1B Albert Pujols (.310-40-100 season)
3B Andy LaRoche (hopefully a -290-20-90 season)
LF Rick Ankiel/Ryan Ludwick (-265-25-90 season)
C Bryan Anderson (-270-10-50 season)
SS Cesar Izturis (-250-5-40 season)

The bench:
C Jason LaRue
2B Adam Kennedy
3B Scott Spiezio
OF Brian Barton
OF Ryan Ludwick/Rick Ankiel

I would imagine this team could hit somewhere around 160 home runs on the optimistic side of things.  Any way you cut it, 2008 is going to be a rough year.

I wouldn't try to do anything to drastic in the beginning of 2008 pitching wise.  However, by the end of 2008, the rotation would hopefully look like this:

SP Adam Wainwright
SP James Shields
SP Jake Westbrook
SP Joel Piniero
SP Braden Looper

I don't expect Mulder to be anything near what's considered effective, and I assume Carpenter won't be playing until the start of 2009.  I don't have a lot of faith in either of them, so I left them off.  It Mulder did come back strong, He would bump the 5th starter off.

Jaime Garcia solidified himself as the best Cardinals pitching prospect last year, and I really think he could be a dominating lefty.  He's only 21, and I'd see how he does in AAA next season.  He'd replace the odd man out.

Here's the bullpen:

The bullpen would consist of Tyler Johnson and Randy Flores as the two lefties, Brad Thompson as the spot starter/long reliever, Russ Springer as the SU, and Jason Isringhausen.  A combination of Parisi/Motte/Wellemeyer/Worrell would fill out the rest of the bullpen.  I would REALLY push for Chris Perez to be the closer for 2009, making Jason Isringhausen expendable.  

Hopefully, RHP Mitchell Boggs (who had a solid year in AA last season) would progress toward AAA.  Perhaps by 2009 he would be fighting for a back of the rotation job.  

At the end of 2008, I imagine Carl Crawford would be a free agent.  I would do whatever it took to put Crawford in a Cardinals uniform.  I would let Mark Mulder walk for $1.5 mil.

I would trade Isringhausen to a contending team that needed a closer (since his contract is up at the end of the year, anyway.)  Last year, Scott Linebrink netted the Padres Will Inman (whom I think a comparable comp. would be Jaime Garcia) at the break.  Perhaps the Indians would be in contention and would need help.  One player that I would definitely trade Isringhausen for is OF Nick Weglarz.  He hit .276 with 23 HRs and an 82/129 BB/K ratio last year with Low A Lake County as a 19 year old.  

So now, you're looking at this type of team for 2009:

C Bryan Anderson
1B Albert Pujols
2B Jarrett Hoffpauir
3B Andy LaRoche
LF Carl Crawford
CF Colby Rasmus
RF Skip Schumaker

Bench:
C ------ (whoever)
SS Tyler Greene
3B Brian Barden
LF Rick Ankiel
CF Brian Barton

SP Chris Carpenter
SP Adam Wainwright
SP James Shields
SP Jake Westbrook
SP Jaime Garcia
Spot Starter/LRP Mitchell Boggs
RP Mark Worrell
RP Tyler Johnson
RP Randy Flores
RP ----
RP ----
SU Russ Springer
CP Chris Perez

Keep in mind, you could potentially have Adam Ottavino, Tyler Herron, Nick Weglarz, Christian Friedrich as your top 4 prospects in the minor leagues, so you still have a fairly decent system to fall back on.

Former Rockies/D-Rays/Blue Jays/Athletics left-handed pitcher Joe Kennedy passed away today (apparently from a brain aneurysm).  Very sad news, similar to DK.  Even worse was that he had a son who was 1 year old.

Joe Kennedy -- ESPN

Prayers go out to you, Joe.  Don't really have much to add in order to make this 300 characters.

The Kansas City Royals left Chris Lubanski available to be taken for either $25k or $50k.  Here are his stats:

Chris Lubanski in BaseballCube

5th overall pick in 2003, athletic outfielder, displayed a ton of power in 2005, displayed the ability to take walks in 2006, and made it to AAA in 2007 at the age of 22.

If we acquired Lubanski, I think he would easily be the #4 prospect in the system.

Thoughts? (And I think everyone will agree that the Royals are crazy for letting him go!)

With the shortstop position up in the air, what do the members here think of Tyler Greene's potential in 2008 and (especially) 2009?

Greene was drafted 30th overall in 2005 out of Georgia Tech.  The first thing that jumped out of me was that he had an UGLY swing.

Greene's swing

(I don't know how to post links)

He has a handsy swing lacking support from his lower half and doesn't build any kind of balance.  Even at GT, pitchers were able to exploit his weaknesses (69/139 BB/K ratio between his sophomore and junior seasons).  For arguments sake, Jed Lowrie was drafted 40th overall out of Stanford, and had more BB than K in his college career.  You can almost think of Peter Kozma as the opposite of Greene -- Kozma, a polished, fairly low ceiling high schooler, and Greene being a raw, high ceiling college hitter.
 Things haven't gone well for Greene since he was drafted, with a .253 career BA and a 85/282 BB KK ratio over 3 MILB seasons.  It's disappointing that he can't walk more than 10% of the time, because when you have his kind of natural athletic ability (more importantly, speed), you can make life hell for the opposing team.  In 2006 he had 33 SB and 3 CS.  In a way, this makes his hitting ability look worse, because a hundful of the weak grounders that he rolled over on were probably beaten out because of his speed.  Greene is one of the few true leadoff hitters that the Cardinals have in their system.    

Optimistically...
If Greene DOES have a breakout season in '08 and hit's .280-.375-.450ish, the Cardinals will have a pretty exciting core for their lineup in a couple of years.. Bryan Anderson, Rasmus, Pujols, Greene, Duncan (if he stays there).

Sooo.. where does Greene fit into the fray?  Does anyone have confidence in Greene and think it's silly to have Ryan and think about trading for a young shortstop (like Asdrubal Cabrera?)

I was thinking about possible prospects we could deal for the other day, and two names that came to mind were Neil Walker from the Pirates and Brent Lillbridge from Atlanta.

Here is the breakdown:

3B Neil Walker b. 9/10/85 (@ Altoona AA)
431 AB, .288 AVG, .362 OBP, .462 SLG, 46 XBH, 53/74 BB/K ratio.
This was Walker's first season as a 3B -- he was drafted as a catcher in the first rd. of the 04 draft by the Pirates.  The Pirates discovered a fairly adequate 3B in Jose Bautista this year, which I assume could make Walker movable.  The Pirates might be interested in Bryan Anderson (their current catcher, Ronny Paulino isn't too shabby, though).  

SS Brent Lillibridge b. 9/18/83 (@ AAA Richmond)
321 AB, .287 AVG, .331 OPS, .436 SLG, 26 XBH, 20/59 BB/K ratio, and 28/5 SB/CS ratio.
Brent was drafted in the 4th rd. by the Pirates in 05, and was subsequently traded with Mike Gonzalez to the Braves for Adam LaRoche.  Lillibridge's range would fit perfectly with the Cardinals philosophies, and he would be the top of the order type of hitter that the Cardinals really need -- He had 42 SB last year between AA and AAA.  Lillibridge is kind of lost in the shuffle with Yunel Escobar, and I suppose he could be expendable by the Braves.   The problem is, I don't see any big holes on the Braves' side that we could fill.  They have an abundance of outfield prospects like Brandon Jones, Jordan Schafer, Gorkys Hernandez and Jason Haywerd to go with Francoeur.  I would imagine that we would have an easier time trying to acquire one of these guys if we ended up trading Chris Duncan.  I really can't see any way to acquire Lillibridge because of the depth that the Braves have at every position.  
So my questions to you are: What position is more important to fill -- shortstop or third base? I'm not sold on Brendan Ryan being a starter in our lineup, and if I were Tony, I would have Hoffpauir penciled in at second base on opening day. I assume that Eckstein will be gone (I don't know all the logistics of his plans), and Rolen will be gone to the Twins for some kind of pitching prospect. Uhh, guys, that means our infield will look like this on opening day: Pujols/Hoffpauir/Ryan/Barden or Spiezio. That's.. not good.

Poll

If Rolen is gone and we're looking to trade for a rookie, which position needs more help?

50%

Shortstop

15 votes

50%

Third Base

15 votes

30 votes | Poll has closed

I was thinking about this on the way home from school today.

The Cardinals #1 priority appears to be a front-of-the-rotation starter with dominating stuff.  I think that going after anyone except perhaps a corner outfielder position player wise could be a waste of cash.

This is the first time in years that the Cardinals have had this numbers of players who could produce in the major leagues.

CF Colby Rasmus -- this guy is going to jump up the prospect charts this offseason.  He is still relatively unnoticed compared to Jay Bruce.  

SS Allen Craig -- A 6'2 190 lb shortstop, he was 22/23 years old in High A, but he put up absolutely dominating numbers.  He hit .312, 21 HRs, 35/79 BB/K ratio, .530 slg and .899 OPS.  He doesn't seem to have incredible speed (8 SB), but Craig will be in AA next year, maybe AAA by the end of the year.  The A+ to AA jump is the most difficult, but I think he has a ton of potential.

C Bryan Anderson -- Offensive minded player with developing defensive skills.  One of the top 3 catchers in the minors in the fray with Hank Conger, Matt Wieters, Jeff Clement, etc.

2B Jarrett Hoffpauir.  We know he has a fairly limited ceiling, and he's kind of in the Aaron Miles mold, but he's a MUCH better hitter than Miles.  If I were TLR, I'd have him batting 8th on opening day.

SS Jose Martinez -- I really don't know a whole lot about Jose.  He's 21 years old in AA, and I think that he may be the future second baseman or shortstop.  5'11, 180 with below average speed, advanced hitting skills for his age and good plate discipline.  It doesn't look like he walks too much, but a 21 year old who hits .300 in AA stands out.

There are a bunch of other guys who are a couple notches below the listed players and can't be considered true prospects (Mather, Stavinoha), but it seems that they could be valuable off the bench.

By 2009, we could have trimmed Rolen, Edmonds, Molina, Ryan, Eckstein, Miles, Encarnacion if he recovers, Taguchi and Ludwick for salary room or pitching help.  Focus on 2008 as a REBUILDING year, and don't worry about dealing our prospects for a rental player on July 31, 2008.  During the next two off-seasons, spend some serious money on a top of the rotation starter (Think Jake Peavy, Scott Kazmir) and a middle-top of the rotation starter (Joe Blanton, Dustin McGowan).  Target a college third baseman, the best college pitcher available, and a high school corner outfielder in the 08 draft.  We have the #13 pick in the draft, and I assume we'll have a couple of compensation picks in the 30s-50s.  Hell, Tony should try Jason Jennings as his next project.
Bottom line:
If we give it a year or two, don't get panicky about an offensive situation, and let these players develop, we could have a very solid young offense.  Sure, things never go as planned, but this could be a possibility for the opening day lineup in 2009:

C: Bryan Anderson
1B: Pujols
2B: Hoffpauir
SS: Martinez
3B: Craig
LF: Duncan
CF: Rasmus
RF: Ankiel

Well, we all know this is a bad year, so let's look ahead to next season.

Let's get rid of Yadier or Bryan Anderson, call up Hoffpauir to play second base.  Sorry Jim Edmonds, but you are killing our team.  If the season were to end tomorrow, we would have the #12 pick in the draft.  I'd love to see the Cardinals draft a college third baseman next summer.  During the last few years, the following college third basemen were drafted between the 12th and 30th picks:
2003
19th pick -- Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks
26th pick -- Brian Snyder, Athletics
2004:
18th pick -- Josh Fields, White Sox
2006:
17th pick -- Matt Antonelli, Padres (this guy appears to be the second coming of Jesus Christ)
3 of the 4 are having a lot of success in the minors or majors.  That's a small, but solid sample size.
Of course, in a perfect world, I'd like to have a reliable shortstop.  Maybe we could package a deal together including some of the following: Blake Hawksworth, David Eckstein, Yadier Molina, Brendan Ryan and cash.  We could attempt to get  Reid Brignac, Asdrubal Cabrera, etc.  Don't forget that we could try to dump Scott Rolen somewhere.  Our infield would be revamped, talented and most importantly, young!  Our third baseman, shortstop, second baseman and catcher would all be between 23 and 27 years old.  Don't forget that Colby Rasmus would start in centerfield.  He's much better than Evan Longoria (Tampa Bay's #1 prospect) right now, in my opinion.  Rasmus had identical statistics as Longoria in AA this year.  The only differences?  Rasmus is a year younger, plays the premium position, and had more stolen bases.  Throw in Chris Duncan in left field, and the only hole we have is in right field.  Surely, some combination of Rick Ankiel, Joe Mather, Ryan Ludwick, Preston Wilson, Skip Schumaker would be able to plug in league average stats.

However, would you like to see the Cardinals go after Kosuke Fukudome?  I won't go into detail about him, but he's the next in line after Hideki Matsui and Akinori Iwamura, and wants to play in the MLB next year.

By 2009 and 2010, I think the lineup could look something like this.
The lineup?

1. SS Reid Brignac, Asdrubal Cabrera, etc.
   
2. CF Colby Rasmus
   
3. 3B College player we drafted in 08
   
4. 1B Albert Pujols
   
5. LF Chris Duncan
   
6. C Bryan Anderson
   
7. RF Rick Ankiel/Joe Mather/FA agent pickup
   
8. 2B Jarrett Hoffpauir

The pitching rotation is a bit tricker.  Next year, we will have to scrape by with Wainwright, Reyes, Looper, and of course, the scrap pile that is Kip Wells, Mike Maroth, Mark Mulder, and Joel Pineiro.  While Carpenter will be back in 2009, it's pretty evident that we need to pick up a #1-2 starter in the free agency pile this winter.  Unfortunately, the pitching crop is terrible this winter.  The only player I think we should have any interest in is Livan Hernandez.  A solid, #2 innings eater, who should put up 4.3-4.5 ERA.

That would leave us with:

1. Adam Wainwright
   
2. Livan Hernandez
   
3. Braden Looper
   
4. Anthony Reyes

We still need a 5th starter, of course, and I'd like to have someone we can rely on from own system.  I'm getting tired of trying to scrap together a different rotation every week, particularly involving Tomo Ohka and Todd Wellemeyer.
Most of our pitching talent will be in A+ to AA next year (Brad Furnish, Adam Ottavino, Tyler Herron.)  The only legitimate shot at the 5th slot is probably Jaime Garcia.  I believe he was #2 on the Cardinals prospect list.  He had a 3.45 ERA with 103 IP, 97/45 K/BB and a .245 AVG against. VERY solid -- he was 20 year old for most of the season.

The Giants signed #10 pick Madison Bumgarner and there are still 8 more 1st round picks that haven't signed (including 4 or 5 of the first 5.)
Pleaaaaase sign Kyle Russell.  Why would you draft someone just because he was still around in the 4th round?  Could have drafted a 50th rounder and still come out ahead.

And he's only asking for 900,000!

The deadline is approaching to sign Kyle Russell, the Texas outfield we drafted in the 4th round.

I've heard he wants around 900k, (late 1st rd., early supp. money.)

All I have to say is I will be INCREDIBLY furious if the Cardinals cannot sign this guy.

Where is the logic in drafting a player who they don't expect to sign/waste a pick THAT high in the draft?  

Then I realize that we've paid MUCH more than that for:

Joel Pineiro
Tagg Bozied
Mike Maroth
Tomo Ohka
Todd Wellemeyer

I cannot express how furious I will be if they let Kyle Russell walk.  If the Cardinals cannot sign a player of his caliber, they don't deserve to win.

Poll

Will Russell sign by the Aug. 15 deadline?

28%

Yep

17 votes

71%

No

43 votes

60 votes | Poll has closed

I thought I would post this as a couple of weeks ago, several Cardinals fans were interested in acquiring Scott Linebrink.  He'll be a FA at the end of the season.

The Padres traded Linebrink for 3 minor league pitchers from the Brewers, including Will Inman.  Inman was the Brewers third best prospect behind Yovani Gallardo and Ryan Braun this spring.  Inman is a 20 year old in AA.

My thoughts.. the Brewers were HOSED.

Yes, it's 10 months away, but looks at next year's draft.

The Cardinals will probably have a much higher draft choice than they have in the past.

If the draft were to take place tomorrow, we would have the 11th overall pick.  

If Isringhausen would leave to free agency, I would imagine he would be worth a class-A prospect and another supplemental pick.  That means whoever signed him would relinquish their 1st round pick to us.

If Cardinals fans are starting to view 2008-2009 as rebuilding eras with Carpenter out and veterans retiring soon, what type of player would you look for with your picks?

Personally, I'd go for a college third baseman with my 11th pick.  If Izzy left, I would look for a college pitcher with more upside than former picks.

If Kyle Russell didn't sign this year (he's $900,000, come on) I might look toward a corner outfield prospect.  An outfield with Colby Rasmus and a Jason Heyward type player (the Braves 11th pick this year, compared to Fred McGriff) would be a very impressive but young outfield.

Your thoughts?

Esposito and another Marlins minor leaguer were arrested.  Here is the story:
http://www.commercialappeal.com/mca/redbirds/article/0,2673,MCA_22116_5620146,00.html

This kind of stuff shouldn't even be a problem.  

Maybe he is just taking out his anger -- he's batting .162 this year AAA.  

Pretty embarrasing.

Ouch with Chris Carpenter, by the way.  1.1 IP, 5 R (3 ER), 5 H

I thought I would share a couple of surprises, disappointments and such from various prospects in the Cardinals organization so far this year.

SP Jaime Garcia -- nothing spectacular, but definitely holding his own in AA.  His 3-8 record is misleading, he has a 4.21 ERA and opposing hitters are batting .250 off of him.  Still needs to cut down on the walks: 79 K/36 BB in 83 IP.

RP Christopher Perez -- has been spectacular in AA.  Batters are hitting a miniscule .167 and he has 54 Ks in 33 IP.  Unreal numbers.  He walks too many guys right now, though (24 BB).

C Bryan Anderson -- has put up great numbers as a C in AA.  Still needs to work on defense, but his power should start to progress, soon.

1B Mike Ferris -- was supposed to have huge power potential when drafted in 04 and has been a bust so far.  Very little power in AA this year.

SS Tyler Greene -- Low OBP but has put up fairly good power numbers in AA.  Needs to cut down on the K's, but things might be looking up.

CF Jon Jay -- obviously rushed to AA, but since being demoted as been putting up solid numbers with PB.

CF Colby Rasmus -- his average has taken a large dip, but his power is definitely arriving and he is slugging close to .500.  Has good K/BB numbers and has 12 SB and no CS this year.

SP Gary Daley -- has been disapponting in High-A.  Another 2006 pick with "pitchability." Had a ton of walks, too.

SP Eddie Degerman -- was promoted and was old for QC.  He did put up eye-popping numbers, there, though.

3B Allen Craig -- came out of nowhere to hit .330 with 17 homers and slug .564.  He's hit .487 in his last 37 ABs.  Promote him!

OF Shane Robinson -- has been disappointing with High A.  He looks to be no more than a 4th or 5th outfielder at this point.

SP Brad Furnish -- he has 22 and in low A, but has put up great numbers to date.  Hitters are batting .207 of the southpaw and he has as many strikeouts as innings pitched.

SP Tyler Herron -- 20 year old from the 06 class.  3.06 ERA, 79 K, 13 BB in 79 IP, .222 BA against and has only allowed one home run the entire year.  I'm thinking he could move quickly?

OF Daryl Jones -- Terrible numbers so far.  Former high school wideout has not developed the tools to go with his athleticism.

I think you will be able to listen to it on milb.com audio.  I'm really not sure.

He's rehabbing with Palm Beach, and they are playing the Brevard County Manatees, high-A affiliate of the Brewers.

Manatees seem to have a fairly decent offense for the league.

The Palm Beach team includes Jon Jay, Brandon Yarbrough and everyone's favorite, Allen Craig.

All the best for Carpenter!

With the MLB draft coming up on June 7th (and it will be televised), I've been thinking about the Cardinals options.
The Cardinals have the 18th OVRL pick in the 1st round and the 36th pick OVRL in the supplemental part of the draft

David Price (Vandy LHP), Matt Wieters (GA C), Josh Vitters (HS 3B) with probably round out the top 3 picks.

I really like Mike Moustakas, a HS 3B, but he will probably be picked in the 6th-10th picks.

Josh Smoker might be available when we pick.  He is an excellent high school LHP.

Matt Dominguez also plays 3B-1B on the same team as Moustakas.  He might be available, too.  He's about the 4th best hitting high school player in the nationa.

Blake Beaven is another excellent high school righthander who might still be around by the 18th pick.

Jason Heyward is an excellent corner outfielder who played in the AFLAC game.  He has a LOT of potential to be a very powerful outfielder.  I'd really like to see the Cardinals take him but I doubt he'd still be around.

The draft is relatively weak in middle infielders.  Josh Horton (SS, NC) would probably be around in the supplemental round.  He's one of the best out there.

Thoughts on the draft?

Cardinals were ranked #23 in the majors.

#1 Rasmus
#2 Garcia
#3 Chris Perez
#4 Blake Hawksworth
#5 Jon Jay
#6 Bryan Anderson
#7 Adam Ottavino
#8 Mark McCormick
#9 Josh Kinney
#10 Darryl Jones
#11 Mitch Boggs
#12 Brendan Ryan
#13 Mark Hamilton
#14 Chris Lambert
#15 Chris Narveson
#16 Cody Haerther
#17 Tyler Greene
#18 Tyler Herron
#19 Tyler Johnson (see a pattern?)
#20 Nick Stavinoha
#21 Trey Hearne
#22 Tommy Pham
#23 Brad Furnish
#24 Mark Worrell
#25 Dennis Dove
#26 Mike Sillman
#27 Jon Edwards
#28 Shane Robinson
#29 Skip Schumaker
#30 Amaury Marti

Jay is predicted to be the 2010 left fielder.. 2010 starters are predicted to be Carp, Wainwright, Reyes, Garcia, Hawksworth.. Perez in the pen.

How will this affect our moves this off-season? Surely if we win it all, it will definately help us in the free-agent pool and the cash department. Will we have a much bigger budget as opposed to what the Cardinals were expecting to spend this summer? Won't players be interested in playing for a proving winner.

Cory Lidle (NYY Pitcher) was killed today in a plane crash in NYC. He was among four that were killed. Cory was piloting the plane.
You don't have to be a Yankees fan to understand what they are going through right now.
I'm sure Lidle is in a happier place now. I pray for his family.
I remember when we felt the same way about Darryl Kile. This really is terrible for any fan/team to have to go through.