SB Nation User Blog: Ken Pomeroy

John Wall Goes to Court Next Friday (29 May 2009)

Ken Pomeroy — Fri, 22 May 2009 05:08:02 -0000

If you want to keep an eye on John Wall's Breaking & Entering charges a little more closely than you are likely to get via spotty journalists' reports, try going to this link at the North Carolina Administrative Office of the Courts:

http://www1.aoc.state.nc.us/www/calendars.Offense.do?submit=submit&case=9102009031372&court=CR&defendant=WALL,JONATHAN,HILDRED&courtDate=05/29/2009&county=WAKE&session=NC&courtRoom=001A

It will give you the charge, the citation number (via which you can obtain the arrest report/charging documents), the court docket number, the courtroom assignment, and the court date. You will also be able to follow any updates there.

North Carolina's courts are open and public under our state constitution, so anyone can attend the hearings and trials that may take place (John is not a minor). For that matter, anyone can also view the entire court file, which I will do the next time I'm in Raleigh.

Do not expect high drama on this first court date, however. It is very likely that as a young man with no record, John will already have received permission from the D.A.'s office to participate in Wake County's Deferred Prosecution Program, pursuant to which he will be assigned certain civic minded penalties (read "community service hours") in exchange for a promise from the D.A.'s office to dismiss the charges upon his successful completion of the agreed-upon activities.

Forward Darnell Dodson also follows Calipari to UK

Ken Pomeroy — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 13:57:58 -0000

Miami Dade JUCO small forward Darnell Dodson has asked to be released from his Memphis LOI, and has told the UK staff he will play at UK next year.

Dodson was rated a "95" out of 100 initially as a college recruit, which made him a borderline 4/5-star. He signed originally with Pittsburg, but was academically ineligible, and so went to play JUCO ball for a year, only to find that some conference regulation made him ineligible to return to Pittsburg, although not to play elsewhere in the NCAA.

He redshirted one year and played another, so he will have three years of eligibility at UK. His numbers this past season were phenomenal, and he shoots the ball very well from 3.

This would appear to mean that somebody who presently holds a UK scholarship will not be doing so at this point next year. Oh well....

QUICK & DIRTY for those who MISSED the PRESS CONFERENCE

Ken Pomeroy — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 15:26:55 -0000

[PARAPHRASES ALL]

Said, “I wanted to be like Kyle Macy back in the day.”

I came in with UMass in ’92 and couldn’t believe the atmosphere in Rupp. That’s when I said, “I want to be the coach here someday.”

When the job was open two years ago, I called my wife every day for six days asking, “Did they call?” But I was her second or third choice, too, and that has worked out okay.

Put to rest absurd rumors about his alleged split with Ricky Pitino, but twice Cal said, “THIS is the Commonwealth’s Team.” The point was well made.

Said Bill Keightly used to hug his neck and treat him as though he were part of the program, and he never understood why, but knows that he signed his contract with UK on the first anniversary of Bill’s passing. Asked whether Jane was present yet.

Told Hurley Rupp that The Old Man was going to roll over in his grave when he sees some of what will go on with the dribble drive offense he is going to bring in.

“Kids want to play for me, but really they want to play the style I play.” Said every guy needs to be able to take his man, or “it will be hard to play him.” Said he will discuss that with each UK player and see where they stand.

Can’t contact anyone who signed with Memphis already per NCAA rules, but it’s too early too see who might change plans and follow him to UK. Certainly did not shut the door on pursuing other Memphis recruits, but said this has been a whirlwind three days, and it’s too early to answer questions about recruits.

Wants to involve all of the great players who have passed through the doors, and had already heard from Rex, Kyle, Tayshaun, Nazr, and others.

Said UK takes care of its own. Noted with amusement that “Richie Farmer used to hit baskets, now he’s going to be governor!”

Said his ancestors on both sides were dirt poor West Virginians who worked in the mines and lived on dandelion soup. Said he’s common folk, too, and that some will wonder whether he can do this job.

Said it’s not about the money, as he would have made more at Memphis “next year” if he had stayed.

Wants to double the number of championship banners (“that’s all they hang here”), but program will be disciplined, and kids will graduate. Turn around will be long term, not next year. We will reach a point where we are contending for the national championship every year. The hard part is winning them.

Seemed genuine when he said this is about the student, whom his staff is here to serve.

Knows he will be second-guessed on every move that doesn’t wind up with a victory, but that no longer bothers him.

Said Cutler (reporter who chased BCG) is crazy, and will not bother him. Singled Cutler out and mocked him somewhat. Said they go way back to when they both had holes in their shoes.

Said he will not open mail that has no return address, but will answer, usually by hand, letters with a return address. (Good luck with that one, Coach!)

This was really a marvelous performance from a guy who said all the right things and dropped names like crazy from Goose Givens and Dan Issel on up the line.

NOTRE DAME vs. UK on PAPER: WHAT POMEROY SHOWS

Ken Pomeroy — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 16:43:24 -0000

Yet again we have to play a team that lives on three-point shooting, which does not play to our strengths. Notre Dame shoots 39.0% from three, which is scary good. Pomeroy’s computer says Notre Dame is the 38th best team in the country (to our 46th place ranking), and that the Irish should beat us by 5 points on their home court.

Computer gives us a 31% chance of victory. Said another way, the Irish would probably beat us two out of every three if we play them in East Bend. Let’s hope that Wednesday is that third game.

ND is the opposite of Creighton in terms of bench minutes. Whereas Creighton played the bench all game long (3rd in the country in bench minutes), Notre Dame sticks with the starting five (8th in the country at the opposite extreme). Part of the reason for that is that the team the Irish put on the court is the 6th most experienced squad in the country. They will be well-conditioned and very experienced.

That may or may not make a difference in how our guys respond.

On the other hand, there are things about this match-up that are very interesting. For one, while our problems with turnovers are well documented, Notre Dame is curiously the worst team in all of Division 1 at getting the other team to turn the ball over.

They get almost no steals or blocks, and have a mediocre defense. That is very ironic, because their offense is second best in the country at NOT turning the ball over. In short, they control the ball well, but also let the other team do so.

If you take from our offense its propensity to give the ball away, it’s pretty darned good. We shoot a high per centage and make our free throws.

On the other hand, our problems with turnovers are not always instigated by great defense on the other side. If Liggins wants to try to get on the highlight reel, or Perry has too much butter before the game (et cetera), it doesn’t really matter whom we’re playing – the ball is going to wind up in the second row. The turnover stat is, however, a very interesting circumstance between these two ball clubs.

Another wild card in this game is that it pits our very solid defense (21st overall) against their very solid offense (also 21st overall), and our offense (made mediocre by turnovers – 81st in the country) against Notre Dame’s mediocre defense (87th in the country). Our strengths against theirs, and our weaknesses against theirs should make for an interesting and unpredictable game.

Patterson vs. Harangody will be fun to watch. Pat has a real chance to show whether he can handle NBA material.

Konner Tucker Interview Highlights and Stats

Ken Pomeroy — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 04:25:47 -0000

I listened to an interview with Konner Tucker, and drew these highlights therefrom:

“You know, they want me to come in here [UK] and play a little bit of the Point Guard position and play on the wing just like I have in high school and at Lon Morris -- just whatever happens throughout the game. They didn’t promise me any starting position.”

He conceded that some fans considered him unworthy of a UK offer, but said he would just work hard and show them they are wrong.

“I definitely have no doubt that I’ll be playing next year.”

He was asked to describe himself, and said, “I feel like I’m a point guard [who] can score. I look to make good decisions.”

He also said he had the impression that both Meeks and Patterson were returning from what he could tell, and that everyone expected big things from the team once the new folks got shuffled in.

He seemed like he was tired, or on a sedative, or perhaps just not too glib. This is no Jeff Sheppard, but does seem much more mature than a Ramel Bradley. He did seem to be a very confident, almost cocky guy, which would jive with his high school coach’s claim that he is very aggressive with a very competitive nature.

This past season at Lon Morris College Konner shot 83.5% from the free throw line and got there an awful lot (111 out of 133). He also shot 42.4% from the three-point zone (hitting 73 out of 172). His 72 assists against 57 turnovers is not that impressive, although I'm told he has played a lot at the wing, rather than the point. His team roster shows another guard (a Brian Wanamaker) averaging 4.2 assists per game. I assume that guy’s getting a lot of time at the point as well, inasmuch as Tucker is a freshman, after all.

Tucker has 27 steals but apparently no blocks on the year.

WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT CREIGHTON

Ken Pomeroy — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 02:44:19 -0000

Creighton is a short team that plays at a slightly faster pace than we are used to, and that uses more bench than anyone in the country except Northwestern State and Pepperdine.

The good news is that Creighton is ranked below us in the Pomeroy computer rankings (65 vs. 48), and their only quality win of the season came in the opening game, where they played and beat New Mexico, which is currently ranked at 36 (all rankings hereinafter are Pomeroy’s).

Since that game, Creighton has not played a single team ranked higher than 62nd. That team is Illinois State, which took 2 out of 3 away from Creighton over the stretch of the season. The only other games Creighton played against teams in the Pomeroy Top 100 were their wins over Northern Iowa (82), Dayton (83), Oral Roberts (87), and George Mason (89), and a two-point loss to Nebraska (73) at Nebraska. These teams would seem to compare roughly to the likes of Vandy (77) and Mississippi (95) in the Pomeroy rankings.

Not super-tough opposition, but they did clearly take care of business at this level.

Creighton has several bad losses, including a double-digit loss to Drake (144) at home, and losses to Arkansas Little Rock (158) and Wichita State (126).

Before you get too excited about that news, remember our HOME losses to VMI (175) and Georgia (201) were worse.

We did have one common opponent this season: Mississippi Valley State, whom Creighton beat by 24 points in Omaha on 2 December 2008, and whom we beat at Rupp by 23 points five days later.

The bad news is that Creighton is yet another team that matches up favorably with us in that it relies heavily on and is successful at taking the three-point shot. Creighton ranks in the top 30 in the country in 3pt field goal percentage, and also shoots very well from the charity stripe (20th in the country in FT %). They also do not normally turn the ball over (43rd in the country in hanging on to the ball), but remember they haven’t generally played against defenses of our caliber.

Creighton does not rebound well and their defense generally sucks, except that they are the 20th best team in the country at getting the other team to turn the ball over (top 40 in steals). How freakishly scary is that? The only good thing they can do on defense is the thing that has bedeviled us all year! If they played at a faster pace, it would be VMI redux.

Let us hope that our superior height, superior defense, better rebounding, and much better inside game, coupled with our 21 games against teams in the top 100, will be enough to overcome the heavy turnovers we are likely to commit, and what is likely to be Creighton’s great perimeter shooting.

YOUTH and INEXPERIENCE a MUCH BIGGER PART of UK's/SEC's PROBLEMS THAN MANY REALIZE

Ken Pomeroy — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 15:54:19 -0000

Several recent comments here at ASOB have led me to believe that some of the readers/posters don't fully appreciate just how young this UK team is (in terms of who is actually on the floor playing), and just how young/inexperienced the entire SEC is by that same measure. There is no question that much of our present mediocrity can be blamed on that very deficit of leadership and experience, not just at UK, but indeed across the conference.

(With all of the recriminations swirling around the BBN, it is refreshing to note that this is the type of "fault" or "blame" that belongs neither to coach or to player -- it is simply a fact that having been there before helps a player do things better, as does having more time under any given coach. Our profound turnover issues are just one symptom of that circumstance. The older you get, the better you protect the ball, and the fewer stupid mistakes you make. Age brings wisdom.)

Those are my assertions; here is my argument.

At "KenPom.com" Ken Pomeroy tracks the experience level (not age) of the players who actually get floor time across the whole of Division 1 basketball. Out of the 344 teams tracked, 262 Division 1 schools play an older, more experienced team than UK does.

Let me put that another way: three-fourths of the country plays a more experienced roster than we do. That goes way beyond "just no seniors".

In fact, that experience differential is clearly one of the main reasons the SEC is "down" this year. Tennessee and Florida both play rosters that are even less experienced than Kentucky's, and the seven youngest teams in the country include Vanderbilt (338), Arkansas (340), and at 344th and DEAD LAST in the country in experience is Mississippi.

That means six of the SEC's teams, and its four most venerable basketball programs (UK, UT, UF, and Ark.) are in the bottom quartile in the country in the field of experience.

The most experienced team in the SEC? That would be LSU, which, as we all know, happens to have finished at the very top of the conference heap.

Sure, there are many variables that affect success, coaching prowess and talent being two important ones, but the bottom line is that this year the most experienced team won the conference by a mile, and the conference bottom-feeder (Arkansas) was 340th in the country in that same category. The correlation is more than incidental.

Georgia is a bit of an anomaly, but experience is also why Georgia, the second oldest team in the conference, has been able to weather the coaching storm and salvage some pride in the last part of the season by beating Kentucky, Florida, and Vanderbilt.

From a conference perspective, it is interesting to note that no SEC team is in the top 20 in the country in terms of experience (LSU is 22nd in experience). Should we be surprised that no SEC team besides LSU is regarded as Top 20 material?

Experience matters.

Good planning in recruiting can alleviate some of these experience gaps, but in an era of the easy transfer, the NBA defection, and the coaching migration, there are times when you just have to say, "We're just really young right now," and be patient. This is one of those times.

Stop fretting and looking for scapegoats, BBN. Better days are coming for our school and our conference.

Our SEC brethren have their troubles, too.

Ken Pomeroy — Sat, 20 Dec 2008 02:55:26 -0000

The opening loss to VMI hurts a bit less when you take a peek at some of the trouble our conference mates have been having so far this season.

The best records in the conference belong to the undefeated LSU Tigers, and the one-loss Arkansas Razorbacks and South Carolina Gamecocks. In addition to belonging to the “One or Fewer Losses Club,” these three programs have something else in common – they comprise 50% of the six weakest schedules in the entire country.

That’s right – of the 344 rated schedules, Arkansas’ schedule is rated 339th toughest, South Carolina’s is rated the 341st toughest, and the LSU Tigers are 344th and dead last in the country.

That’s one way to do it. (Don’t brag just yet – only one SEC team is in the top 100 in Strength of Schedule.: UT 17, Mississippi 102, UK 144, Vandy 197, Florida 211.)

As easy as these three schedules have been, LSU’s eight quality wins include an impressive six-point home blow-out of Centenary (Pomeroy Ranking 320). Arkansas has already lost to Missouri State and beat South Alabama by a whopping two points (Pomeroy Ranking 182). South Carolina has lost to the College of Charleston (Pomeroy Ranking 125).

Tennessee has lost to Temple and Gonzaga, and Florida has lost to both Florida State and Syracuse, and beaten Washington State by a pair of free throws.

Everyone else in the conference has as many losses as Kentucky does, or more.

Vandy’s three losses include a 19-point home loss to Illinois Chicago.

Alabama’s three losses include the season opening loss to Mercer (Pomeroy Ranking 212), and a 23-point beating at the hands of Oregon (Pomeroy Ranking 101).

Loyola Chicago (Pomeroy Ranking 224) beat Georgia by 21.

Mississippi (Strength of Schedule 301st) has four losses, including a 33-point whoopin’ at the hands of New Mexico (103-70).

Also with four losses, Auburn has lost to both Mercer (at home) and Northern Iowa (Pomeroy Ranking 225).

Mississippi State’s four losses include a home loss to the 3-6 UNC-Charlotte 49ers.

Against this background, our three losses don’t seem quite so hideous. We lost to the highest scoring team in the country on opening night, to the best team in the country on our second night, and to a top 25 team on a night when our guards missed 21 of 23 shots from beyond the three-point arc, and our starting point guard played with ten stitches in his head.

Pomeroy puts us presently at number 32 in the country with the best defense in the SEC and the 13th best defense in the country. Tennessee, Florida, and Mississippi are all rated as having top twenty offenses (at 12th, 15th, and 20th, respectively). We are fourth in the SEC in overall offensive efficiency; we would rank much higher in this category were it not for our high incidence of turnovers.

The www.KenPom.com site generates predictions for future games based on a team’s year-to-date performances. According to those computer-generated predictions, the University of Kentucky is specifically predicted to lose only three more games during the coming regular season – to Louisville, and the away games at Florida and Tennessee.

CAVEAT: the away games with Vandy and South Carolina are predicted to be very close, and the home victory over Tennessee far from certain (all three are predicted to be two-point wins).

Taking into account the vicissitudes of fortune (and the observable fact that teams do not win every game they are “supposed” to win), the computer generated end of regular season record predicted for UK is 23-8, with a predicted SEC record of 12-4.

This does not include any tournament games, and would mark a significant (6-game) improvement over last year’s pre-tourney experience.

SAGARIN and POMEROY Say CATS are TOP 25

Ken Pomeroy — Fri, 05 Dec 2008 07:29:22 -0000

[Promoted from the diaries --ed.]

After seven games the Pomeroy rankings have us as the 18th best team in the country, and we are starting to be far enough into the season where these rankings are becoming meaningful and more reliable. (The Pomeroy rankings are completely scientific/statistical, in that they take no subjective considerations into account – performance only.) Please remember, however, that most of the top teams are still getting their stats against cupcake competition.

The Sagarin ratings corroborate the legitimacy of that assessment, ranking us at 19th in the Predictor category and 24th in the mixed category, which averages Predictor with pure Won/Lost record, taking no cognizance of margin of victory.

Pomeroy now rates our defense the 6th best in the country, with Louisville’s coming in above us at 3rd, and Mississippi State’s coming in at 29th. L.S.U.’s is 45th, and South Carolina’s 48th.

UK is 10th in the country at denying the assist (Louisville is 1st).

UK is 12th in per centage of opponents’ shots blocked (Tubby’s Gophers are 6th).

UK is 23rd in defending the 2-pt. shot, holding opponents to 39.6% (Vandy is 4th, Murray State 24th, UNC 26th, and Louisville 31st).

Florida is Number 1 in getting steals. VMI is 7th, and Tubby’s Gophers are 17th.

This does not look like the year of the three pointer in the SEC. At 82nd, Florida is the only SEC team in the top 100 nationally in the per centage of its shots taken being from 3 (although Vandy is 101st). VMI is 5th, and Louisville is 30th. As our three-point defense is not good, that suggests that to some extent Florida and especially Louisville could be the tougher games for us this year, as the VMI game was.

Offensively, we do not rank highly in terms of overall efficiency, because we are a turnover machine. As a for instance, whereas Louisville is 3rd in the country at protecting the ball against the steal, we rank 287th.

On the other hand, there are several categories where we do rank nationally, and actually but for the turnovers, I am sure we would see a pretty good offensive efficiency rating.

UK is 10th in the country at converting the 2-pt. shot, @ 58.6%. (Florida is 19th.)

We are 33rd nationally at converting free throws, @ 76.3%. Murray State is 4th, Mississippi is 5th, VMI 9th, and Vandy 29th in that category.

We do not rank in the top 100 at converting the three, but Eastern Kentucky is 19th, South Carolina is 26th, and UNC is 34th.

An interesting stat that is available is the per centage of the scoring total generated by reason of an assist. Presumably, the top of this category would be populated by teams that have a smooth offensive flow with polished plays that generally work, whereas the bottom of this category would be populated with teams whose points are generated either out of the mad scramble, or by reason of having productive scoring out of players adept at “getting their own shot.”

One sees good teams on both ends of this category: Louisville is 3rd in the country, and Alabama is dead last. Vandy, UK, and UNC are grouped together at 64th, 65th, and 70th respectively, but Duke is 251st, and UCLA is 272nd. I still think it is better to be on the top side of this category. Most plays are drawn up to achieve scoring from the assist, not from a Shot-Clock-At-Five-Seconds clear-out. If your plays are correctly designed for the team you are playing and properly executed, you would expect to be on the top side of this category. (On the other hand, despite being 272nd in this category, Duke is 24th nationally in offensive efficiency, maybe because they get to the foul line so much, which eliminates the assist being credited.)

SAGARIN, POMEROY, and RPI Ratings after 6 Games

Ken Pomeroy — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 19:54:12 -0000

For those who are interested, Kentucky’s current Sagarin and Pomeroy rankings, even with the losses to VMI and UNC, are higher than they were at any time last year.

Sagarin puts us at 34 in the country; we ended last year at 55 in his rankings.

Pomeroy puts us at 45; we ended last year at 55 in the Pomeroy as well.

The same is not true of the present RPI, where we are presently ranked at 62, having finished last year at 57. This out of kilter RPI ranking is most likely because the year is so fresh and the RPI is so statistically rigid that the numbers just haven’t “gelled” yet. For instance, Evansville is ranked 7th in the country with a record of 2-1, whereas Duke is ranked 16th at 7-0, and Louisville is ranked 129th at 2-0. That will straighten out in a couple more weeks of games (but the RPI remains an inferior analytical and predictive tool).

Our RPI suffers from a Strength of Schedule ranking of 79, which will probably get worse before it gets better. (Of course, starting the season 0-2 didn't help.)

RPI Power Ratings have us at 57.