Before you read any further,  I will use the following disclaimer on this fanpost:

I do not intend to step on anybodys toes by giving my personal top 30 list for Mariners prospects.  The biggest reason I am doing this is not to draw any attention to myself or make myself look like I'm an expert or smarter than Jay or Jason Churchill.  As a matter of fact, most of what I know comes from Mariners Minors, Prospect Insider, USS Mariner, and John Sickels along with Baseball America to a small extent and the rest comes from my daily scouring of the minor league box scores. 

What follows is a personal opinion, compiled for a variety of reasons.  I have become more obsessed this season with the minor league players than the major league ones for one reason or another.  Not simply because the Mariners have failed to live up to expectations this year, because this obsession with the "future" stars of baseball started some time last year.  Not just with the Mariners, but with as many prospects in baseball as I could find or could care about.  Perhaps fantasy baseball was some key to it, consistently missing out on players like Ryan Braun because I just didn't know enough about the young players outside of our organization.  That naturally led to an obsession on our own farm system, which wasn't hard to do after having selected Dustin Ackley 2nd overall last year, clearly the best draft-day talent we've had since Alex Rodriguez.  (By that I mean, regardless off what Ackley does in the future, on draft day he's the most talented looking hitter we've drafted in the last 15 years) 

The organization had reason to be excited for its farm, with Ackley and the myriad of other young players Jack Zduriencik brought in so far as General Manager.  There has been an influx of new talent and I wanted to get to know them as well as I could, and as many as I could.  I admit that I am not familiar with every single name in the organization up to this point, but I think I'm aware of all of the names I should know and a few more.

My criteria for this list is as follows:

1. The Scouts Take.  Basically, where does this guy rank according to people who are a lot smarter than me?  What do they say about him, what do they like about him, what do they hate about him, is he ranked for them?

2. The Numbers.  What do the numbers say about him?  Often the numbers and the scouts take don't match up, but I don't think that means numbers don't matter.  What's he doing and how long has been doing it, is there marked improvement at each level?

3. Age Relative to League.  One thing that I've definitely learned along the way is that this number (age) is almost as important as any other.  And it is one of my most important criteria. 

4. Injury history.  All the talent in the world but you can't stay healthy could still give you a career as long as Bucky Jacobson.

5. Personal Opinion.  This is a personal list and my opinion and bias will show.  Who do I like?  Who do I need to follow everyday because I am a fan of his?  When someone from BA or another site is deciding between prospect #88 and prospect #89, he doesn't use some personal opinion and put a certain guy higher because he knows his reputation is at stake of one fails and one succeeds?  Some names are here because I believe in them, some aren't because I don't. 

What you will not see here: Scouting reports.  I don't know everything about these players.  I don't know everything that Michael Pineda throws or at what speeds.  I don't know how good Johermyn Chavez is at defense.  This is what makes it a fanshot and not an article on my highly popular Minor League website that is blowing Baseball America away in terms of daily views. 

I'm doing this mostly because I want a forum today that will allow us to discuss prospects as much as we want and as freely as we want.  That being said, I have to open myself up to criticism for this list and I am aware of that.  For me, it's not about the list or the order or myself, its about the players.  We need hope somewhere along the line and it can't just come from the Ackleys and the Saunders.  It has to also come from the little nuggets of gold we see in these young hitters and pray for that little miracle that turns a grade C prospect into a grade A prospect over the course of one great season.  We've got way more of those than we do of sure-things, so let me list them for you as I see them. 

And thanks for reading.

1. Dustin Ackley - On top for obvious reasons, he's got a high probability to be an above-average major league baseball player for a long time and at an important position.  He's got a good probability to be a star.  An injury history does exist, but it doesn't seem to be of any concern anymore since he's not a pitcher and it's Tommy John.  Struggled to start the year but I still saw it in the box scores as a better struggle than most as his 19:19 k:bb ratio is very impressive to me in 26 games.  He's finally hitting Mendoza this season with 8 hits, 1 double, 1 home run, 6 RBI and 4 walks in his last 4 games (small sample size be damned, I'm happy to see him hitting again)  I've heard a lot of comparisons but for some reason I've never heard a Dustin Pedroia comparison and that seems most obvious to me.  Pedroia got off to a hotter start in the minors I think, but I feel if Ackley is a future 20-20 threat with a .300 average and high OBP.. that's Pedroia.  And that would be fine by me.

2. Michael Pineda - My favorite pitcher in the organization since 2008, which is why 2009 was so sad for me.  After pitching 47 innings last year, he seems to be back on top, capping off the start of the year with 11 k's and 1 bb in 7 innings in his last start, good for a 1.27 ERA on the year in 5 starts.  (Sorry, I am not on top of where to get all the minor league FIP and xFIP numbers for 2010 season)  It appears his groundball to flyball ratio isn't good at this point, but he's shown great control and command for a 21 year old in AA (average age of the West Tenn staff is 24) and I am a full believer in Pineda.

3. Alex Liddi - I am not a full believer in Liddi, and this is why the list gets very questionable at this point because you've got guys with high probabilities to make the majors as role players and guys like Liddi who don't have as great of a shot to be a major league regular but have very high ceilings.  Love the average (.345 last year, .307 this year) and power potential (72 XBH last year in the High Desert) and that his hitting is coming around at the next level (last 10 games, .432/.488/.676, with 4 walks and 4 strikeouts)  If he can maintain those kinds of strikeout and walk numbers, it will take him to the next level to join the two players ahead of him at a very premium position.

4. Michael Saunders - Not much to say here that hasn't already been said.  My opinion of Saunders is that he's a good, not great prospect.  Maybe I'm bitter because he's the closest to major league ready (obviously) and maybe that's not fair to him but I just don't see him as major league ready.  It's the Sweeney situation.. having him on the team looks a lot worse when Griffey is also on the team.  Doesn't really bother you if he's the only useless DH.  Saunders good be a very, very good player some day and his home run yesterday showed what kind of power he has.  And to have a power hitter at this point would be something far greater than awesome.  Still, he doesn't look like a 40-homer threat, so... I guess its just wait and see at this point.

5. Maikel Cleto - DL This is probably far too high at this point and considering the DL stint and everything else, Cleto is probably a few steps below this and could see a good drop when I update this.  We have seen limited numbers from him, he's hurt, and his numbers last year weren't spectacular, even in only 26 innings.  But I love this kid and I like what I heard from spring training, and he's just going to be a personal favorite of mine.

6. Carlos Triunfel - I'm gonna make a bold prediction, and yes I feel its bold because of how things went for Carlos last year: Carlos Triunfel is going to make it.  I can't say for sure if he's going to be a star, but I feel that he will be a very good player in the major leagues.  Before next season he'll be back on all the top 100 rankings.  Even after missing a year he's still the youngest player on the team, and even though he's not dominating in any sense of the word, he's holding his own.  And that's important for me to see for a player his age in AA.  Next year in Tacoma he should be a budding star in my eyes.  Not ranked higher because of those injury/position issues.

7. Nick Franklin - So who is your favorite hot prospect: Franklin or Peguero?  For me, its Franklin.  Plays an important position, switch hits, dominating at a young age.  It's always important to be wary of early season numbers but I can tell you this; what has he done to HURT his stock?  Nothing.  He's moving up in the world and that's great to see.  Can't wait to see how this whole season pans out for him.

8. Mauricio Robles - Young.  Good numbers.  K/9 is above 9.  K/BB is almost 3:1.  20 hits in 30 innings.  More groundballs than flyballs.  Just waiting to see more of it for a long period of time.

9. Rich Poythress - Draft day 2009.  "What we draft a power hitting 1st baseman relatively early?"  It's easy to see why I immediately became a favorite of Poythress. 

 
10. Greg Halman - DL - I won't give Halman the Triunfel treatment, but I will say that I like him more than most people at this point.  I felt like we were seeing slight improvement from Halman before he got hurt.  I'm still holding out hope.  He's still young and he's in AAA.  Maybe its the boost he needs, maybe not.  But I can't deny I'm rooting for him as much as any other player.

The rest:
11. Dennis Raben
12. Gabriel Noriega
13. Carlos Peguero
14. Kyle Seager
15. Ezequial Carrera
16. Steve Baron
17. Nick Hill - DL
18. Erasmo Ramirez
19. Brian Moran
20. Josh Fields
21. Mike Carp
22. Johermyn Chavez
23. Nate Tenbrink
24. Luke French
25. James Jones
26. Bobby LaFromboise
27. Edward Parades
28. Denny Almonte
29. Dan Cortes
30. Steven Hensley

The following are a list of players that just did not make my top 30 but could some day or were as of last week.  By the way 11-30, the rankings are hardly the most meaningful thing in the world.  Is there a difference in my opinion between Erasmo and Cortes?  Yes.  Erasmo and Moran?  Not really.  They are different pitchers but I like them about the same.  Erasmo would get the edge because I liked him more that day slightly. 

Watch List -
Matt Mangini
Kuo Hui Lo
Jonathan Hesketh
Joe Dunigan
Aaron Jensen
Chris Sorce
Anthony Varvaro
Blake Nation
Tyler Blandford
James Gillheeney
Brandon Josselyn
Tyler Stanton
Mario Martinez
Kenn Kasperek
Kalian Sams

If I have severely overlooked anyone, please let me know.  I'm sure it has happened.  If I have any names on here that are an absolute joke - feel free to speak your mind.  Most of all, let's have fun and talk about some M's future stuff.  Thanks for letting me come on here and share one of my favorite things, I hope the following thread can help me to learn more about the players on the list and for me to share my thoughts and maybe for everyone to learn a little bit more about the guys listed and more. 

Thanks again.

Link to story of the more likely possibility he will not sign.

There is a scenario in which the Mariners could get Stephen Strasburg and I'm not sure if I've seen it discussed yet.

The Mariners should know by the time they sign Dustin Ackley if the Nationals failed to sign Stephen Strasburg, since they both share Scott Boras as an agent and many believe that Ackley won't sign until the Strasburg decision is final - though I'm sure the M's aren't waiting til the final hour to have a deal ready in place.  Still, it's interesting how the draft is working out this season because of Boras and Strasburg. 

Let's say the M's know that Strasburg, maybe the greatest pitching prospect ever, will not sign with the Nationals.  In this case, they could seriously lowball Ackley to a deal they know he wouldn't sign.  Then what would the order of next years draft be?

Unless I'm mistaken it would be 1. Washington, 2. Washington, 3. Seattle.

Since the Nats can't draft Strasburg under league rules unless he signs a pre-draft agreement (which is as unlikely as the Nationals drafting him twice, especially with Bryce Harper most likely getting the richest position player bonus ever) then he would be available to the team picking third.  Seattle. 

However, I also must caution myself.  The rules of the draft seem clear to me, however this is an unusual hypothetical situation.  If a team fails to sign a pick they get the same pick the next season plus one.  So since the Mariners wouldn't sign the number 2 pick, theoretically they should get the number 3 pick.  However, what happens in this case when the Nats are getting the compensatory number 2 pick and already pushing back the draft by 1?  Does the team with the 2nd worst record get the 4th pick in this situation? 

I also must say that I was a little bit pleased to see the Mariners not get Strasburg this season.  Look at what's happening, I was happy for them to get an easier to sign bat, than a tough to sign starting pitcher.  However, it must be noted that if Strasburg lives up to the hype, or even comes close to it, he'd be a stellar arm to have that could be in the rotation by next fall.  It would seem much likelier that he would sign right away if he already misses one season.

I also think that Strasburg would be stupid not to sign with the Nats.  When you consider that he's pushing back his free agency, when the really big contract comes, he's losing money rather than making it by asking for a few million more off the bat.

I hope the Mariners have Ackley signed on Monday.  But if they don't, the 2010 draft just got a lot more interesting.

So I've just heard some news from my friend who works at FSN that tonight is the debut of a new show that he's working on.  Maybe I'm the last one to know this, probably because I live in Los Angeles and haven't watched pre-game anything this year, but just a reminder that the show debuts tonight with Larry Stone as the first guest ever.

Also, my friend was in charge of putting up some sabermetrics on the bottom-of-the-screen ticker.  These numbers will be for the top 6 or 7 players in the AL in categories like: RZR, OOZ, FIP, and RC. 

This seems to be a step in the right direction.

This is my first fanpost, so please forgive me if I do or say anything improperly.  (Like my first line there.)

I read the SweetSpot from Rob Neyer on a semi-regular basis and he seems to have kept a keen interest in the Mariners.  Today he referenced a recent Larry Stone post about the Mariners needing a bat and he'd be willing to trade Jeff Clement or Greg Halman or Brandon Morrow in order to get one, so long as it's not a rent-a-player. 

Rob Neyer thinks the M's need to look no further than Mike Carp over Griffey and Michael Saunders over Langerhans. 

Which writer would you tend to side with?  I'm sure the popular answer would be not Larry Stone, but honestly I couldn't make a judgment unless Stone or somebody told me who we were getting in return for those prospects.  And Neyer doesn't mention our problems at SS, because he probably knows we have no internal solution for that.

I don't think Jack Z is going to trade any of our own prospects unless he's getting a long-term impact bat in return, and are any available?

Rob Neyer SweetSpot