I wanted to look at the strength of schedule of the two teams most likely to win the NL Central this year.  BPro has the Cards chances of winning the central at 57% and the Cubs at 37%.  My methodology was to look at the opponents' pythag record so far and then weight the remaining games against those opponents according to their pythag record.  I attempted to, but ultimately did not, include any difference because of trades, but most of the teams' transactions will only provide a marginal improvement (.5-1 WAR) for the rest of the season.  There were just too many variables like injuries and minor league call-ups that would have tainted any sort of improvement from trades.  Plus, most teams are thoroughly intact before the trade deadline.  Thus, current pythag record does a good job of assessing strength of schedule. 

My formula was to take the pythag record of teams, multiply that by 2 to get a pythag coefficient, then use the coefficient to weight the remaining games the teams have.  That gave a "weighted games remaining" where games are discounted or favored more strongly based on the strength of their opponents.  Example: A .500 pythag team like the White Sox will have a 1:1 game weighting.  A good team like the Dodgers will have a game value >1.  A team like the Padres will have a game value <1.

Here's the table:

There is a lot of overlap in the schedules, but the weighted total/actual games are the following: Cubs 0.966; Cards 0.938.  This means that according to pythag record of opponents, the Cardinals have an easier schedule from here on out than the Cubs.  If one considers that the Cards have significantly fewer games, and can maximize their top 4 starting pitchers and be better rested, the difference might be even greater.  Things look good for the Cardinals.  I welcome for your feedback/suggestions.

We have two months of data for 2009 UZR on Fangraphs.  By analyzing the Cardinals' defensive team audit page, we can see who's been giving the team some love with the glove, who's been sub-par, and what we can expect going forward.  I hope that by looking at the fielding data and overall WAR, I can reinforce a consensus opinion about the team's optimal utilization of resources.  I'm only looking at the data from players from this year.  More after the jump. 

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http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=1248

 Does anybody want to go?  I'll probably head over there during the afternoon.  

As these somewhat nasal hands sing*, it’s finally the end of tour. This Thursday, April 23, Kevin Goldstein, Will Carroll, and myself will appear at Left Bank Books (321 N 10th Street St. Louis, MO) twice, count ‘em, twice to talk everything baseball and sign anything from copies of Baseball Prospectus 2009 to fresh haddock**. The Mets play the Cardinals at 12:40 local time, and we will be bookending that game at the bookstore. We’ll first appear at Left Bank at 11 AM, then return at 7 PM for the full-on, BP Q&A/Signing Experience. On behalf of Mssrs. Goldstein and Carroll, I look forward to seeing as many of you as the store can safely accomodate. That’s (used car commercial voice) Thursday! Thursday! Thursday!

http://tiny.cc/t31t4

Tommy John surgery for this guy.  I know that his FIP and k/9 were great in Memphis last year, but he also walked like 4.75/9.  I liked the Greene trade because I suspected Worrell was an injury risk.  I wonder what Chris O'Leary will have to say...

As per this article, the Cardinals are soon to announce the PTBNL in this deal.  I wonder who that will end up being.

Perhaps one of the most lamentable consequences of the Lopez signing is that the Cardinals aren't likely to utilize Josh Phelps as the 25th man.  As I write this post, Phelps is playing in Memphis and has just hit his 27th homer, his 9th in his past seven games.  He is playing in a different solar system right now.  If you remember, at the tail end of 2007, Phelps raked during a short stint as a Pirate.  I think this guy, age 30, might be at some performance spike and deserves to be on a big league club.  Baseball Prospectus has his major league eqa at .252 (his actual eqa is .294).  Granted, Stav's eqa in Memphis was .293, but Phelps has shown bursts of actual success at the big league level.  I really don't want to see Stav up there in a pressure situation and would much rather have Phelps.  Also, with Duncan out for the season, don't the cardinals need a backup first baseman/5th outfielder?  I guess he's never really played outfield in the bigs, but he's played rf in memphis this year.

Basically, I would have liked to have seen Barton switched with Stav and then Ryan switched with Phelps.  Now, we probably won't see him until Sept.