I threw together a back-of-the-napkin Pujols re-sign analysis.  I had to scramble because I've already read about a lot of player moves today and wanted to publish before anything happened.  Article after the jump.

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I wanted to look at the strength of schedule of the two teams most likely to win the NL Central this year.  BPro has the Cards chances of winning the central at 57% and the Cubs at 37%.  My methodology was to look at the opponents' pythag record so far and then weight the remaining games against those opponents according to their pythag record.  I attempted to, but ultimately did not, include any difference because of trades, but most of the teams' transactions will only provide a marginal improvement (.5-1 WAR) for the rest of the season.  There were just too many variables like injuries and minor league call-ups that would have tainted any sort of improvement from trades.  Plus, most teams are thoroughly intact before the trade deadline.  Thus, current pythag record does a good job of assessing strength of schedule. 

My formula was to take the pythag record of teams, multiply that by 2 to get a pythag coefficient, then use the coefficient to weight the remaining games the teams have.  That gave a "weighted games remaining" where games are discounted or favored more strongly based on the strength of their opponents.  Example: A .500 pythag team like the White Sox will have a 1:1 game weighting.  A good team like the Dodgers will have a game value >1.  A team like the Padres will have a game value <1.

Here's the table:

There is a lot of overlap in the schedules, but the weighted total/actual games are the following: Cubs 0.966; Cards 0.938.  This means that according to pythag record of opponents, the Cardinals have an easier schedule from here on out than the Cubs.  If one considers that the Cards have significantly fewer games, and can maximize their top 4 starting pitchers and be better rested, the difference might be even greater.  Things look good for the Cardinals.  I welcome for your feedback/suggestions.

We have two months of data for 2009 UZR on Fangraphs.  By analyzing the Cardinals' defensive team audit page, we can see who's been giving the team some love with the glove, who's been sub-par, and what we can expect going forward.  I hope that by looking at the fielding data and overall WAR, I can reinforce a consensus opinion about the team's optimal utilization of resources.  I'm only looking at the data from players from this year.  More after the jump. 

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http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=1248

 Does anybody want to go?  I'll probably head over there during the afternoon.  

As these somewhat nasal hands sing*, it’s finally the end of tour. This Thursday, April 23, Kevin Goldstein, Will Carroll, and myself will appear at Left Bank Books (321 N 10th Street St. Louis, MO) twice, count ‘em, twice to talk everything baseball and sign anything from copies of Baseball Prospectus 2009 to fresh haddock**. The Mets play the Cardinals at 12:40 local time, and we will be bookending that game at the bookstore. We’ll first appear at Left Bank at 11 AM, then return at 7 PM for the full-on, BP Q&A/Signing Experience. On behalf of Mssrs. Goldstein and Carroll, I look forward to seeing as many of you as the store can safely accomodate. That’s (used car commercial voice) Thursday! Thursday! Thursday!

http://tiny.cc/t31t4

Tommy John surgery for this guy.  I know that his FIP and k/9 were great in Memphis last year, but he also walked like 4.75/9.  I liked the Greene trade because I suspected Worrell was an injury risk.  I wonder what Chris O'Leary will have to say...

As per this article, the Cardinals are soon to announce the PTBNL in this deal.  I wonder who that will end up being.

Perhaps one of the most lamentable consequences of the Lopez signing is that the Cardinals aren't likely to utilize Josh Phelps as the 25th man.  As I write this post, Phelps is playing in Memphis and has just hit his 27th homer, his 9th in his past seven games.  He is playing in a different solar system right now.  If you remember, at the tail end of 2007, Phelps raked during a short stint as a Pirate.  I think this guy, age 30, might be at some performance spike and deserves to be on a big league club.  Baseball Prospectus has his major league eqa at .252 (his actual eqa is .294).  Granted, Stav's eqa in Memphis was .293, but Phelps has shown bursts of actual success at the big league level.  I really don't want to see Stav up there in a pressure situation and would much rather have Phelps.  Also, with Duncan out for the season, don't the cardinals need a backup first baseman/5th outfielder?  I guess he's never really played outfield in the bigs, but he's played rf in memphis this year.

Basically, I would have liked to have seen Barton switched with Stav and then Ryan switched with Phelps.  Now, we probably won't see him until Sept.

Here's some footage of AAA hecklers witnessing Ank's struggles cerca 2001:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=I3GnaUBKXtI

Obviously, Rick has become a valuable offensive weapon, but this video reminds us just how much he had to overcome mentally.   I rather like his offense as a centerfielder, but Rasmus is probably  better defender at this point and will take over whenever he is ready.  I definitely wouldn't mind having Rick play rf for us in the future. 

As I type this post, I am watching the NCAA Super regional with AZ St and Fresno and getting a couple of looks at the Cards #1 draft choice.  A few things: first, this kid is an intimidating presence in the box, man.  He has these tree trunks sewn to his pelvis.  These must be his generator of awesome power.   Second, I think this guy might be able to play a league average third base.  Some scouting reports I've read mention that he can run fairly well given his badonkadonk (several steals here and there) and has sure feet.  Third, this guy is NOT fat.  I caught this interview on 1380am with Wallace wherein he said that he was down to 9.5% body fat--he's packing some serious muscles in them saddle bags.   My hunch on his defensive capacity was somewhat seconded by a great play he made at 3rd in the 8th inning; Wallace ventures into foul territory to stop sure run-scoring, ground-ball double and throws across his body to get the speedy college player at first, giving AZst a chance in the top of the 8th. 

I dunno.  Maybe the scouts are right and he won't stick, but he'll give 3rd base a worthy try.  He also said on the radio interview that he can play LF.  Or maybe the Cards will be forced to look elsewhere when Albert's contract expires in the next decade.  Wallace will be that guy.  

Finlally, the 1380 interview also revealed that Wallace liked how the wooden bats handled in the Cape league.  I'm getting excited.

Almost lost in the discussion about the last game was subject of the pinch runner for Glaus in the 9th inning.  My fantasy update says that he has a stiff back.  Is able to play tonight?  Or is he going to be on the bench

BTW, did Barton say/do something that drew the ire of La Russa?  Why did Miles pinch hit earlier in that game and not Barton?  Let's see what BB does tonight.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=crasnick_jerry&id=2871894&lpos=spotlig ht&lid=tab5pos1

Check out this article rating the various free agent pitchers from last off-season.  We really could have held onto Suppan, he's much better than Wells.  Even when Carp was healthy, the GM and ownership could have ponied up some more money.

I was just watching the WS 2006 celebration video and I saw Mr. Weaver.  Who thinks we should bring him back for, say, 6/year+ incentives?  I'd like him over a 10/year Suppan.  I know that the market has inflated guys' values to a large extent, no more so than the Jason Marquis signing.  Nevertheless, I think Dave could work with Jeff a little bit more, get him back to top form for Weaver.  Your thoughts?