SB Nation User Blog: KennyWang

Busch II farewell videos

KennyWang — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 02:06:33 -0000

Busch II farewell videos

I occasionally get wistful and search for the 2004 NLCS Game 6 HR by Edmonds, but I always have difficulty locating it. I decided I should just post it up here. There are some other good moments on this page, too.

Disco Hayes is my favorite pitcher

KennyWang — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 18:20:29 -0000

Disco Hayes is my favorite pitcher

OK, OK. I know he's not in the Cards' system, but check this guy out. Here's his blog talking about bad luck and BABIP. He's the new Brian Bannister, but with even junkier stuff.

They call him disco 'cause he throws in the 70s...mph that is. Crazy submariner reliever in AAA Omaha. Check out his peripherals. Let's get on the disco bandwagon.

Cards vs. Cubs Strength of Schedule for Remainder of Season

KennyWang — Sat, 01 Aug 2009 21:38:34 -0000

I wanted to look at the strength of schedule of the two teams most likely to win the NL Central this year. BPro has the Cards chances of winning the central at 57% and the Cubs at 37%. My methodology was to look at the opponents' pythag record so far and then weight the remaining games against those opponents according to their pythag record. I attempted to, but ultimately did not, include any difference because of trades, but most of the teams' transactions will only provide a marginal improvement (.5-1 WAR) for the rest of the season. There were just too many variables like injuries and minor league call-ups that would have tainted any sort of improvement from trades. Plus, most teams are thoroughly intact before the trade deadline. Thus, current pythag record does a good job of assessing strength of schedule.

My formula was to take the pythag record of teams, multiply that by 2 to get a pythag coefficient, then use the coefficient to weight the remaining games the teams have. That gave a "weighted games remaining" where games are discounted or favored more strongly based on the strength of their opponents. Example: A .500 pythag team like the White Sox will have a 1:1 game weighting. A good team like the Dodgers will have a game value >1. A team like the Padres will have a game value <1.

Here's the table:

Cards Opponents	Games	Pythag Record Dif. as of 8/1	Pythag %	Weighted Remaining Games
NYM	2	-4	0.48	1.92
PIT	6	-6	0.47	5.64
LAD	3	21	0.6	3.6
SD	7	-26	0.38	5.32
HOU	5	-11	0.45	4.5
WSH	3	-21	0.4	2.4
MIL	6	-3	0.49	5.88
ATL	3	7	0.53	3.18
FLA	3	-3	0.49	2.94
CHC	3	7	0.53	3.18
COL	3	11	0.55	3.3
CIN	6	-12	0.42	5.04
	Total			Weighted total
	50			46.9	Weighted Total/Actual=.938
Cubs Opponents
FLA	2	-3	0.49	1.96
CIN	6	-12	0.42	5.04
COL	3	11	0.55	3.3
PHI	3	15	0.57	3.42
PIT	9	-6	0.47	8.46
SD	3	-26	0.38	2.28
LAD	4	21	0.6	4.8
WSH	3	-21	0.4	2.4
NYM	6	-4	0.48	5.76
HOU	3	-11	0.45	2.7
CHS	1	0	0.5	1
MIL	7	-3	0.49	6.72
STL	3	6	0.53	3.18
SFG	3	7	0.53	3.18
ARI	3	-7	0.47	2.82
	Total			Weighted Total
	59			57.02	Weighted Total/Actual=0.966

There is a lot of overlap in the schedules, but the weighted total/actual games are the following: Cubs 0.966; Cards 0.938. This means that according to pythag record of opponents, the Cardinals have an easier schedule from here on out than the Cubs. If one considers that the Cards have significantly fewer games, and can maximize their top 4 starting pitchers and be better rested, the difference might be even greater. Things look good for the Cardinals. I welcome for your feedback/suggestions.

How bout a little STL love for Buerhle

KennyWang — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 04:25:11 -0000

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G9XoAJl0PQE&feature=player_embedded

How bout a little STL love for Buerhle

Cardinals Individual UZR, overall WAR, and positional value optimization

KennyWang — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 22:07:21 -0000

We have two months of data for 2009 UZR on Fangraphs. By analyzing the Cardinals' defensive team audit page, we can see who's been giving the team some love with the glove, who's been sub-par, and what we can expect going forward. I hope that by looking at the fielding data and overall WAR, I can reinforce a consensus opinion about the team's optimal utilization of resources. I'm only looking at the data from players from this year. More after the jump.

Name	Pos	G	Inn.	UZR	UZR/150	Car. Innings	Car. UZR/150	BRAA	ZiPS ROS BRAA/(600 PA)
Rick Ankiel	LF	2	14.0	0.8	63.0	161.0	-32.7	-0.2	7.8
Rick Ankiel	CF	26	215.2	-0.1	3.5	1119.0	-6.5
Rick Ankiel	RF	7	49.0	-0.1	11.9	248.2	14.8
Albert Pujols	1B	59	522.0	-1.7	-3.8	7804.0	6.4	23.8	61
Ryan Ludwick	LF					686.2	7.4	-1.0	18.2
Ryan Ludwick	CF					269.2	5.1
Ryan Ludwick	RF	39	315.1	2.0	-2.6	1899	8.3
Khalil Greene	SS	29	238.1	-5.9	-26.3	5939.2	-3.9	-6.4	-7.8
Chris Duncan	1B	2	9.0	0.4	53.4	246.1	-0.5	-1.0	4.8
Chris Duncan	LF	51	396.1	-1.0	-4.6	1792.0	-7.9
Skip Schumaker	CF	2	10.0	1.1	52.9	664.1	-10.3	-1.8	-2.2
Skip Schumaker	RF	8	21.1	-0.1	-3.5	423.1	-8.7
Skip Schumaker	LF	22	45.2	-3.1	-68.9	592.0	3.1
Skip Schumaker	2B	48	349.0	-8.6	-26.3	349.0	-26.3
Nick Stavinoha	RF	9	60.1	0.0	-0.9	80.1	5.0	-1.9	-14.6
Nick Stavinoha	LF	6	27.0	-0.6	-87.1	80.0	0.1
Shane Robinson	CF	2	2.2	-0.2	3.0	-	-	-2.1	-29.2
Shane Robinson	RF	6	41.1	-1.0	-35.1	-	-
Shane Robinson	LF	1	2.0			-	-
Brian Barden	3B	44	203.2	2.2	13.5	232.2	13.9	-2.3	-14.6
Brian Barden	SS	4	27.0	-0.2	-5.7	-	-
Brian Barden	2B	1	7.0	-0.4	0.0	-	-
Tyler Greene	SS	12	92.2	1.4	19.8	-	-	1.8	-20.8
Tyler Greene	3B	6	32.0	-0.9	-128.3	-	-
Tyler Greene	2B	4	6.1	-0.9	-145.7	-	-
Brendan Ryan	SS	23	176.0	5.9	42.5	595.0	21.9	1.4	-16.8
Brendan Ryan	2B	15	84.2	1.7	24.5	358.2	1.9
Brendan Ryan	3B					169.1	-4.1
Joe Thurston	2B	29	87.0	2.2	30.3	133.2	13.0	0.0	-5.8
Joe Thurston	3B	38	268.0	-3.3	-12.4	268.0	-12.4
David Freese	3B	5	30.1	0.4	12.0	-	-		-2
Colby Rasmus	CF	40	305.2	10.3	38.2	-	-	2.6	0
Colby Rasmus	RF	6	46.2	1.3	83.3	-	-
Colby Rasmus	LF	7	40.0	0.1	-10.6	-	-

Here are a few assumptions behind this chart:

1) I am including each player's 2009 UZR fielding data and their career data for each position. Any player who only has 2009 data has a dash in their career columns. This should help overcome some sample-size issues, but by doing so I also introduce into the sample any improvement or deterioration of defensive skills.

2) I am using the ZiPS Rest of Season projections to predict a players wOBA from here on out. I am then converting that wOBA to to BRAA (batting runs above average) over 600 PAs by using the formula (wOBA-.330)xPAs/1.15.

3) I didn't try to monetize value or introduce any positional adjustment because I'm solely concerned with the current roster and absolute performance...not any sort of replacement, trade or free-agent win computing exercize.

4) I also didn't include any minor league fielding data, primarily because I didn't know where to look and I wanted to stick with UZR, which I am most familiar with. Be cautious of the small samples generated for some of the players.

5) Mather and Glaus probably deserve to be on there, but I got lazy and I'm only looking at folks who have played this year.

Positional Analysis

C: Catching is a difficult position to capture through any metric, so I didn't even bother putting it on there. Yadi's defensive prowess is almost universally praised.

1B: Albert

2B: The first position where there is controversy. Schumaker: has gotten the bulk of playing time at 2B, but has cost the team 8.6 runs below an average second baseman according to UZR. According to the data on fangraphs, his biggest liability has been a lack of range (-9.5 range runs) and his average sure-handedness doesn't make up for it. Among qualified second basemen, Skip is the worst second baseman in baseball, 1.6 runs behind Dan Uggla. His bat is pretty much league average, and this year he's hitting RHP only slightly better than LHP (which is a commendable improvement for the Schu Man) but still. His reputation for defense saves in LF hasn't born fruit, either, since he's -3.1 runs this year and merely a career 3.1 runs average in the Dunn Siberia. Barring any sort of breakthrough in his defense, It might be time to stick a fork in this turkey of an experiment.

Thurston: Over 88 innings at 2B this year, Joe has contributed above-average defense and his career fielding data is in the +13 runs/150 games range. His offensive skills are ok according to wOBA and is only a few runs below average from here on out...should be about a league average-ish second baseman from here on out based on his ZiPS ROS wOBA and positive defense at 2B. He's always deserved a starting role, but has been blocked by elite 2B talent at LAN PHI and BOS

Ryan: Another good 2B, although not as good as Thurston. His career UZR/150 at 2B is only 1.9 RAA. He's been above average with the bat this year and is stinging the ball at a 23.7% LD rate, but that and his .376 BABIP should regress. ZiPS ROS is skeptical of his success this year.

T. Greene: Too early to say anything about his second base skills, but he's a SS. ZiPS is also skeptical of his success thus far. More later.

Barden: Not enough data, but he's likely a better 3B.

3B: Again, there are many suitors for this position on the Cardinals. I'll start with Barden who has been playing a very good defensive 3B so far this year. Over his major league career he's like 13 runs above average at the hot corner. ZiPS hates his bat for the rest of the season, though. Despite his whopping 3HRs this year, he's kind of like Cesar Izturis of the 3B.

Ryan: He hasn't played any 3B this year, but he's been -4.1 runs/150 games below average for his career.

Thurston: UZR really doesn't like Joe at 3B. -3.3 UZR runs this year. Pales in comparison to his 2B defense.

T. Greene: Too early to draw any conclusions about his D at 3B.

Freese: He's injured now (woe is the Future Redbirds reader), but Freese posted good numbers defensively. Furthermore, I remember reading somewhere that his minor league defense was in the vecinity of like +13 runs defensively. ZiPS also loves his offense, projecting him to be only 1 run below average for the rest of the year. If he hit like ZiPS called for him to over an entire season, he might be worth 2-3 wins. Nice asset.

SS: Controversy continues here.

Ryan: UZR loves Brendan Ryan at SS. Based on the data, he's 21 defensive runs above an average SS over 150 games. He's also been an above average offensive player this year, primarily based on his %23 LD rate and high BABIP. He does have a Expect that to regress, somewhat, but even if he hits 8 runs below average from here on out (like ZiPS calls for) he's still a great talent.

T. Greene: Tyler "First Round Pick" Greene has also been very good with the glove and has displayed some nice power and increased plate discipline this year in very limited playing time. ZiPS is skeptical of his performance from here on out, but I think his offensive performance might be legit due to his career .180 ISO. Lets hope he keeps getting fastballs.

K. Greene: I hate to suggest this, but it might be time to cut ties with K. Greene. His has not performed defensively or offensively this year and I'm not excited about his defensive rebound potential. Indeed, his career UZR is -3.9/150 games. ZiPS thinks he'll cost the Cardinals ~4 more runs below average from here on out, only about 4 more than Ryan, but that's assuming that he gets back into playing shape. I like Khalil, but still... I'll take the vacuuming Ryan and his LD-enhanced BABIP than K. Greene at this point.

This get a little bit more clear in the OF and I'm getting a little verbose:

LF: Ryan Ludwick: Ludwick has performed admirably in LF throughout his entire career even though his defense is a run or two better throughout the whole year in RF (and isn't bad in CF for his career). ZiPS likes his bat going forward. He makes the most sense in Left given our other options.

Ankiel: Ankiel gets better defensively as the numbers increase from LF-RF. He's actually not a bad CF, but he doesn't have a huge sample size in LF to base performance off of. I also like his man-cannon arm out in the right side of the outfield. ZiPS likes his bat despite the slow start this year.

Duncan. Meh. His defense is below average, but not terrible, and his offense only projects to be ~5 runs above average for the whole year. I'm not sure what a replacement level LF is this year, but Duncan is probably only 1 or 1.5 wins above that.

Schuman: Probably a little bit more valuable in LF than Duncan, but he's kind of a 4th OF, imo.

Shane & Stav: Kind of fun to look at, but I am sick and tired of having Aaron Miles in the OF. At this point they're both replacement. I'm not sure about Shane's ceiling, however.

Colby: Colby has a great glove, but rules CF.

CF: Like I said before...Colby. He's been worth one win with his glove, alone, and should provide league average-ish offense from here on out. All hail Colby. Ank actually isn't that bad CF.

RF: While Ludwick is probably the better RF and Ankiel only has 250 innings to support this: I like Ankiel in RF. Career UZR numbers are best there, and his bat is more RF than LF.

Not really surprising, but here's what I've supposed to be the optimal line-up factoring defense and offense:

2B: Thurston--the best defensive 2B and has close to league-average bat. Ryan next.

SS: Ryan--Crazy UZR/150 numbers combined with a career high LD% make him a valuable asset this year. He did hit 4HRs in 2007. T Greene is close, but his offensive success is more of a question mark due to high K%...does posses a nice career ISO mark.

3B: Murkier, due to organizational injury and depth, but I'll give you a WAR order: Glaus>Freese>Barden>T Greene One caveat is whether or not Greene becomes a plus defender at 3B. If T Greene be a +7 run defender at 3B and wOBA near league average, then I'd take him over Barden.

LF: Ludwick, due to Ankiel's prowess in RF. Ludwick is still a plus defender in LF, although his bat is relatively weaker due to the Manny-factor.

CF: Rasmus. ZOMG

RF: Ankiel: better than Juan Encarnacion. It also might be worth it to see Mather thrown in there on a semi-regular basis.

Schu: 4th outfielder, no business at 2B.

Duncan: DH

Steven Goldman, Will Carroll and Kevin Goldstein at Left Bank Books 4/23

KennyWang — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 16:39:40 -0000

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=1248

Does anybody want to go? I'll probably head over there during the afternoon.

As these somewhat nasal hands sing*, it’s finally the end of tour. This Thursday, April 23, Kevin Goldstein, Will Carroll, and myself will appear at Left Bank Books (321 N 10th Street St. Louis, MO) twice, count ‘em, twice to talk everything baseball and sign anything from copies of Baseball Prospectus 2009 to fresh haddock**. The Mets play the Cardinals at 12:40 local time, and we will be bookending that game at the bookstore. We’ll first appear at Left Bank at 11 AM, then return at 7 PM for the full-on, BP Q&A/Signing Experience. On behalf of Mssrs. Goldstein and Carroll, I look forward to seeing as many of you as the store can safely accomodate. That’s (used car commercial voice) Thursday! Thursday! Thursday!

Mark Worrell's delivery gets the best of him

KennyWang — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 21:34:39 -0000

http://tiny.cc/t31t4

Tommy John surgery for this guy. I know that his FIP and k/9 were great in Memphis last year, but he also walked like 4.75/9. I liked the Greene trade because I suspected Worrell was an injury risk. I wonder what Chris O'Leary will have to say...

As per this article, the Cardinals are soon to announce the PTBNL in this deal. I wonder who that will end up being.

2009 Bill James Projections on Fangraphs

KennyWang — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 16:32:53 -0000

2009 Bill James Projections on Fangraphs

Bill James projections for 2009 are now included on most individual player's page. Teaser: I'm way excited about KMac and the Birds' offense next year.

Fangraphs analysis of Ellis/2B

KennyWang — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 15:32:22 -0000

Fangraphs analysis of Ellis/2B

Considering that Adam Kennedy's offensive and defensive skill set is very similar to that of Ellis, this analysis provides further support to the argument that Kennedy should be our starting 2B or at the very least have him be part of a strict platoon against RHP.

Give me a Ph(elps)

KennyWang — Wed, 06 Aug 2008 20:01:25 -0000

Perhaps one of the most lamentable consequences of the Lopez signing is that the Cardinals aren't likely to utilize Josh Phelps as the 25th man. As I write this post, Phelps is playing in Memphis and has just hit his 27th homer, his 9th in his past seven games. He is playing in a different solar system right now. If you remember, at the tail end of 2007, Phelps raked during a short stint as a Pirate. I think this guy, age 30, might be at some performance spike and deserves to be on a big league club. Baseball Prospectus has his major league eqa at .252 (his actual eqa is .294). Granted, Stav's eqa in Memphis was .293, but Phelps has shown bursts of actual success at the big league level. I really don't want to see Stav up there in a pressure situation and would much rather have Phelps. Also, with Duncan out for the season, don't the cardinals need a backup first baseman/5th outfielder? I guess he's never really played outfield in the bigs, but he's played rf in memphis this year.

Basically, I would have liked to have seen Barton switched with Stav and then Ryan switched with Phelps. Now, we probably won't see him until Sept.