SB Nation User Blog: Kevin HD

Michigan State Game Set for 3:30 On ABC

Kevin HD — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 17:25:14 -0000

Michigan State Game Set for 3:30 On ABC

Ohio State at Michigan and Minnesota at Iowa are both noon kickoffs.

The Familiar Fallout: Poll Drops, BCS Position, Next Week's Lines

Kevin HD — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 03:07:30 -0000

Yeah, it wasn't pretty. But it's time to take stock and look forward.

Polls. Penn State will end the season with just two ranked teams on the schedule - Wisconsin is on a two year break - and for the second time Paterno & Co. played too safe for their own good.

The Iowa game could be rationalized as an anomaly, the weather and blocked punt weren't expected or advantageous, but getting dominated by an Ohio State defense means this coping mechanism from the Iowa game is now much more truth and much less fun:

(Okay, but still a lot of fun.)

Now with a little more reality to go on, the polls were pretty punishing. The Coaches' say 17th. That puts Penn State behind fellow two-lossers OSU, USC, LSU, Miami and Oregon. It's a similar story from the Harris.

Random bullets:

The humans seem to have overreacted to Iowa's Stanziless loss. If Oklahoma was allowed to stay ranked for no reason simply because they lost their quarterback, I don't understand why the Hawkeyes shouldn't get the same treatment. They are 12 and 13 with the humans, but still 9th in the computers.
Probably a similar over-reaction for Ohio State, but obviously in the opposite direction. They jump all the way up to 8 in the polls but stay outside the BCS top 10 because of a T-13 computer ranking.
Both these last two points are extremely temporary, though, because they'll shift mightily depending on the outcome of next week's game.
And if you want proof that timing and reputation are way more important than records: USC is 10 in the human polls with two losses, Oregon is 14 and 16 with the same record. Not only did Oregon beat USC like no one else in the last 5 years, but they also have essentially the same exact resume: one win over a top 15 team, one loss to a top 15 team, and one inexcusable defeat to a Pac-10 mediocre squad. Nice, right?

BCS. Fugimaster runs down the BCS rankings and has your poll positions for the final BCS at-larges:

I think we can pretty confidently move TCU and Alabama into the "safe" column, and LSU would be eliminated by the 2 teams per conference rule (Thanks IcersGuy) so that leaves USC, Miami, Boise, and us for the final 2 at-larges. Is it a long shot? Probably, but stranger things have happened. I'm not giving up hope until December 5.

So there you have it, with the big assumption that Penn State wins out, of course. I suspect the reaction to this for a lot of you is "OMG BCS? STFU!" but let's keep things in perspective. Winning out is in the cards and anything can happen in a bowl game.

Lines. Vegas sent out the opens tonight as usual. Penn State is favored by 22 next week against Indiana, a line 70% of the betters think is too high. This lends credibility to the Pateroism that you're never as bad as they say you are after a loss. Plus it's still Indiana, although they've played Wisconsin, Iowa, Northwestern and Michigan all extremely tough.

Some other lines of note:

Wisconsin is a 9.5 point favorite against Michigan
Illinois is finally favored in a game again, -4 against Northwestern
Ohio State is a 13.5 point favorite against Iowa

And by the way, that OSU-Iowa game is one of only two contests between ranked opponents this week. The other one is an underwhelming Utah vs. TCU. The higher ranked school is favored by 18 points in that one.

Nitt Picks Is Asking "What Streak?"

Kevin HD — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 16:57:25 -0000

More photos » by Pat Little - AP

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At least it's not a pizza bowl. The Big Ten is officially in Texas to stay. It's the Dallas Football Classic in the recently rejected Cotton Bowl (Stadium):

Following is the four-year schedule (selection placement shown for the Big Ten and Big 12 excludes BCS selections):

January 1, 2011 - Big 12 (#7) vs. Big Ten (#6)
January 1, 2012 - Conference USA vs. Big Ten (#6)
January 1, 2013 - Big 12 (#7) vs. Big Ten (#6)
January 1, 2014 - Conference USA vs. Big Ten (#6)

(Should an "at-large" selection be required, Conference USA will provide a back-up team in years 2011 and 2013, and the Big 12 will provide a back-up team in years 2012 and 2014.)

Why aren't bowls doing more of this? Alternating with CUSA isn't much of a draw, but it would be a lot more fun to see the Capital One Bowl rotate the #2's around, and we might finally get to see a regularly scheduled decent matchup in a bowl game with someone other than the SEC or Southern Cal.

The (fake) streak is on the line. 11W wrote an entire post about Penn State ~~without making a joke about soiled pants. Congrats guys~~ (never mind, I missed the photo caption) (better luck next year):

If the Buckeyes want any shot of making the Rose Bowl and winning a fifth straight Big Ten title...[LOLZ -ed]

If you are not a fan of Tressel punting on 4th and 1 from the opponent 37 yard line, you will not be happy in the coming weeks. If JT was conservative with his play calling when Aaron Pettrey was healthy, imagine what it will be like this week with either an inexperienced Barclay or Buchanan at the helm.

You've seen it in the stats: this game is likely to mirror the offense hating ways of the 2008 contest. A year ago, scoring went like this: a QB sneak for a touchdown and field goals of 31, 41, 26 and 25 yards. That's it. Not the kind of game you want to break a kicker in on. Especially if he was one for three in last weeks exhibition.

Stop it. I feel like I've been hard on Rittenberg lately, I think he does a good job, but give it a rest already:

When scanning the BCS standings, it's pretty easy to formulate a one-sentence summary for each team to this point in the season.

Examples: [...]

Then you get to No. 11 Penn State. What do we really know about this team?

What do we know about a team with this schedule: LA-Monroe, Wyoming, Texas Tech, UTEP, Colorado, Oklahoma, Missouri, Oklahoma State?

Or this one: Rutgers, SE Missouri St., Oregon State, Fresno State, Miami Ohio, South Florida, Louisville, Syracuse?

The schedules are so watered down anymore, only teams with preconceived "identities" can really "prove" anything. See: Texas, Florida and Alabama as the only three teams anyone cares about even though they aren't the only undefeateds.

Even if Penn State wins this weekend, which is no guarantee, what will we know then? Will a home win over a (then) three-loss Ohio State team change the rhetoric? Probably not.

There is still some question. He might not be around to see it, he admits as much, but Wanny had a little chat with Joe Paterno about renewing the rivalry and told a reporter his thoughts on the reality of the situation:

Do you want to play Penn State every year?

"We [Pitt, obviously] need to be playing Penn State. I was on the job about a month and I talked to Coach Paterno about it. It probably won't happen until he retires and I understand that. It's his prerogative. But it'll happen. Maybe I won't even be here, either [when it happens]. We should play each other. It's a great, great national [emphasis HIS. -ed] in-state rivalry. We should be playing each other. There is no question about that. There probably isn't anyone who would disagree with that."

In scores of other games. Some in-house stuff, DA Madeira gets Pwned!...In Defense of Statistics is back...and maybe this is a little much.

Wrap-Up: STANZIBALL STANZIBALL STANZIBALL

Kevin HD — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 12:19:25 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

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Ohio State 45, New Mexico State 0

I would normally leave this game out, but seeing as it's Hate Week (BSD: Where It's Always Hate Week (R)), this seems like a good place to start.

The Vegas outcome of this game is hilarious: OSU was favored by 44 points with the total set at 48.5. Any time the spread is 70-80% of the total, you're going to get a lot of parlays. This was over 90%. Yet the strategy would have failed miserable.

Defense continues to prove Ohio State's strength. They gave up just 62 yards of offense and 2 first downs, although to a team that hasn't scored over 20 points all season even against WAC defenses. The Buckeyes rank 2nd in just about every major defensive category, right behind Penn State.

Even for a blowout, some Buckeye fans weren't feeling the kind of comfort these types of games are supposed to provide:

Truth is it is difficult to get any kind of feel from this game because there was really no offensive rhythm established. Ohio State made lots of big plays due to their superior athleticism, but didn't look that efficient on offense, despite winding up with 559 yards. Pryor was able to turn some broken plays into long runs in the first half, but hit less than 50% of his passes, and nearly threw a couple pick sixes.

And then there is this little bit of research from G-M in the fanposts:

In yesterday's EPIC SHOWDOWN of two of college football's elite, Ohio State's starting place kicker Aaron Pettrey suffered a knee injury, causing him to most likely miss the rest of the season. The back-up, a former MLS (What?, oh yeah, major league soccer) player Devin Barcley stepped in, going 1-3, making his only kick from 29, and missing from 36 and 47. With two of the Big Ten's top defenses meeting next week, a kicking matchup may decide the game. Oh yeah, and Toilet Paper got pulled at half time too, with him being described as "banged up". He was seen limping, and most likely has a lower body injury. Just saying..

Also: Tressel called an onside kick in the 2nd quarter. Just saying...

Iowa 42, Indiana 24

Ah yes, this game. You've seen the replay 1,000 times so I'll spare you the details, but somehow Indiana was unable to capitalize on six turnovers or overcome one of the most pathetic applications of instant replay I've ever seen. They go home blown out, not even covering the spread, on a day that should have been one for the Hoosier history books. The final score made it look easy.

The fear of Iowa getting away with three quarters of struggle and five Stanziballs never would materialize, though. It's been on constant replay from the WWL and likely makes permanent the idea that Iowa won't be able to jump Texas of Florabama if the three end undefeated.

Oh, and the disrespect:

But ask yourself this: Is there any doubt which team is better, has played better, and has played better competition? If Iowa were to meet Oregon on a neutral field next week, who would be a double-digit favorite?

Considering Oregon is a 5 point favorite against freaking Stanford this week, I'll suggest that maybe you rephrase the question.

Illinois 38, Michigan 13

The ultra-start of Tate Forcier has officially come to a crashing halt with the entrance of Big Ten defenses not named Indiana. His QB ratings since that game (not counting Del. St.): 126, 73, 76, 150. While the 150 against Illinois looks good, and he did vastly improve on his sliding completion percentage, he also gave the ball away twice and was 0-3 on 4th down conversions.

Forcier did, however, break his streak of throwing at least one interception in every Big Ten game.

And look! Good Juice! Eight for 11, 123 yards, 1 TD, zero picks, and 97 yards rushing.

Predictably, there is total meltdown. Mgo put up some type of point restriction yesterday in an effort to keep only the upber-addicts talking, and MnB, well:

First off, apologies for the deleted threads, basically there was nothing of value being stated in the most recent one, and the game thread had digressed to caps-lock explicatives from yours truly, and really, there's just not much to gleam from that is there?

Which is both kinda of sad but also hilarious. Having to delete posts on your own site because of your own comments is...uncomfortable.

Minnesota 42, Michigan State 34

I can't pretend to have watched a second of this game, but I'll start the recap with a question: Michigan State, how do you give up 42 points to a team that (even with these stats) ranks in the 100s in total point and total yards offensively?

The Only Colors has your Monday morning rant, and draws this conclusion:

So it's not as if the coaching staff didn't have sufficient evidence going into Saturday's game that running the ball up the middle in short-yardage situations wasn't likely to be a successful endeavor.

Apparently they tried anyway. Sounds fun.

Adam Webber, with Decker unavailable, threw for 416 yards and four touchdowns.

My favorite stat? The two teams combined for 230 yards in penalties.

Wisconsin 37, Purdue 0

With an offense as dysfunctional as Ohio State's it was only a matter of time before they dropped one to a lesser team. How Purdue was able to be on the better end of that, though, I don't understand. Purdue's two passers combined for a 2.5 ypa average (!!!). They were 2 for 16 on third downs and had three turnovers.

And the things is: Wisconsin hasn't exactly played the cream of the offensive crop, and they still rank in the 40s and 50s nationally in major defensive categories.

Penn State Polls And Vegas Lines

Kevin HD — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 02:25:51 -0000

Penn State jumped two spots to #11 in this weeks BCS rankings and holds the same spot in the irrelevant poll. The computers peg the team anywhere from 10 to 13.

Iowa loses some computer love to Florida and now sits with the second best 1/0 average. That hurts their chances of jumping Texas if it came down to picking between several undefreateds.

Vegas has opened most of this week's lines as well. Through Penn State's loss to Iowa, Ohio State falling to USC and their inexcusable stumble against Purdue, the related lines seemed to suggest the two teams are nothing but equal.

For example: Penn State was a 3-point favorite in the preseason "Games of the Year" odds; both were 17-point home favorites against Minnesota; there was a 6.5 point difference between the lines against Illinois, however adjusted for home field (three point swing either direction from "neutral"), and it's within half a point.

It looks tonight to be settling right around Penn State -3.5, or put another way, with Penn State maybe a half point better but holding home field advantage.

It Was A Slow Turning Engine: Penn State 34, Northwestern 13

Kevin HD — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 18:56:37 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y. Huh - AP

11 days ago: Northwestern quarterback Mike Kafka, right, fumbles the ball during the first quarter of an NCAA college football game against Penn State's Jack Crawford in Evanston, Ill., Saturday, Oct. 31, 2009.(AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

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It was an easy start for Northwestern against a BBDS defense that came out in its softest form. Poor tackling and bad angles helped with Wildcats score early and easily with six and ten-yard gains all the way down the field. Before being injured, Kafka was taking the easy slant routes and running successfully when the zone defense spread out too thin.

A lot of the game wrap-ups today cite Kafka's injury as the setback Northwestern would never overcome, but I'm not sure he would have maintained his early consistency. The veteran quarterback was also completing 77% of his passes, 10 points higher than the season average he has posted against lesser defenses. I suspect we would have seen some regression to the mean.

Northwestern was winning the game by working long drives that kept the ball away from Daryll Clark. They ended up in 19 third down situations against Penn State's defense, the most any team has totaled all season, and converted early. Combine that with the free downs (we'll get to that in a second), and the best defense was a slow, clock eating offense.

The turnover stat in the second half read Penn State 0, Northwestern 1; as often happens in football, the stats fail us here.

Three times the defense forced a punt, only to see possession slip away through mistakes. A late hit turned a 4th and short into a first down. The punt return team had an illegal substitution that allowed the Wildcats to keep the ball. Finally, and most painfully, was the fumbled snap on a Northwestern punt that they somehow back-yard-balled into a first down that could have ended with Penn State ball inside the red zone.

Northwestern ran the kind of "you'll have to throw to win" defense we saw a lot of earlier in the year, yet Penn State was too stubborn to counter it. Corey Wootton, who played as well as expected, led a blowing-up of the Penn State o-line that never allowed Royster to get any momentum.

It wasn't until almost 25 minutes into the game that the offensive brain trust did the obvious: five passes, two QB runs (one a busted play), zero Royster carries, and the first Penn State touchdown.

In the end Clark finished with 274 yards and a QB rating a couple points above his average. Royster had 118 yards, but just a 3.3 average excluding his 69-yard TD run.

The defense fixed the holes and posted a second half shutout, but they'll have to play a complete game next week if they want to beat Ohio State.

BSD Staff Predictions: Northwestern Wildcats

Kevin HD — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 15:05:39 -0000

More photos » by Terry Gilliam - AP

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Your staff preview of this season's "let's get overly concerned" sandwich game...

Mike Says...

Evanston has been a place where Penn State can never seem to get an easy win. They have a 4-2 all time record there, but three of those wins have come by less than five points. Even the 2005 team needed a miracle pass from Michael Robinson to Isaac Smolko on 4th and 15 to pull out the win. So it's tempting to say this is going to be a difficult win for Penn State. But I'm just not seeing it.

The game in 2005 came a week before Penn State put it all together against Minnesota. This Penn State team has already played itself into a weapon of mass destruction. Northwestern has nothing that scares me on offense. And the defense is starting the waterboy and two managers in the secondary. This is not Northwestern circa 1995. Bring on the Buckeyes.

Penn State 35, Northwestern 17

Kevin Says...

They asked Pat Fitzgerald what he thought of the 2009 Penn State football team and his basic response was, "Man those guys are good." He's mostly right. The offense is first in the league in total yards, second in total points, and seems to have finally picked up an identity.

And I expect nothing less than proverbial bloodshed while Northwestern has the ball. Lee practiced all week and should be available to help defend against the short passing game Kafka brings. You've got what might be the very best defense in the country (1st nationally in points allowed, 4th in total yards) against a Northwestern team that ranks 60 to 100+ in most major offensive categories.

I expect 2005-Illinoisish chaos. In a good way.

Penn State 52, Northwestern 7

Ruts Says...

No reason to worry here. Northwestern's severely hampered by injuries in the secondary, so Penn State should be able to move the ball at will. Oh, and Northwestern can't run the ball. If this is any less than a mauling, I'll be disappointed.

Penn State 44, Northwestern 14

Daryll Clark Posts 395.57 Passer Rating In Practice

Kevin HD — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 12:21:05 -0000

Clark is getting some press this week of the "he's not getting any press" variety:

ESPN has a video asking: so why can't he win the Heisman? (Answer in the form of a question: Who cares about the Heisman?)

Disrespect on paper: Clark didn't make the cut on the simis list.

Bill Kline is beginning to see a trend in Paterno's cryptic pressers:

This is how Paterno normally begins his campaigns for his players. He did the same with Courtney Brown, Larry Johnson and Michael Robinson, noting in October that each was the best player at his position in the country, which wasn't paying any attention.

Remember "former Nit Devlin"? Of course you do...and you thought the debate was over when he transferred:

"[Devlin is] more of a poised quarterback [than Clark], he's better in the pocket, he has good mobility," [scout.com draft analyst Chris Steuber] said. "Clark has good mobility, as well, but Devlin just gives you the presence you want out of a quarterback. "Devlin, to me, just has better arm strength, he has better awareness in the pocket, delivers the ball on time. More of a complete quarterback at this time. I think when you look at Devlin, you see upside. I think when you see Clark, you see a project."

Yeah, so so much for respect.

Thoughts? Northwestern previews out shortly...

Nitts Picks Is Peaking At The Wrong Time

Kevin HD — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 17:06:37 -0000

Exercise in apathy. For those of you worried about a fierce Northwestern crowd:

[T]his 4:30 pm et start time, which was cemented at the beginning of the season has been the home treat of the schedule. This summer, fans dreamed of NU being 7-0 or a "realistic worse case scenario" of entering 6-2. The current 5-3 was inconceivable. Regardless, you were excited because it promised our best home atmosphere of an otherwise pathetic home atmosphere season. There is one problem. It is Halloween night.

That's LTP and he goes on to explain that, in the twisted world of NW athletic support, an 11 a.m. local time start is preferred. It's way sadder over there than I realized.

Also of concern for those in purple: Northwestern's secondary isn't exactly healthy.

Oh contrare. Rittenburg has an untypical fluff piece about how Penn State is (per the title) "peaking at the right time."

Uh, no they aren't. Penn State is certainly better today than they were on the Wednesday before the Iowa game -- shoot you might even be able to call the team "peaking" -- but it's certainly not happening at the right time. You want to peak against the best competition on the schedule, not Northwestern.

We'll hopefully finish strong, smart money says we do, but having one loss through eight and a 2% chance at the Rose Bowl means you didn't do anything at the right time, and that's why Paterno's best realistic scenario right now is a BCS at-large against someone uninspiring like TCU.

Someone isn't understanding the point of an "unofficial visit." In what has become rare bad news about the upcoming recruiting class, Sharrif Floyd announced a top-5 in some type of journal on SI and left Penn State off the list. What's strange, though, is that he wants to make a visit for the Penn State-Ohio State game:

Next weekend, I [as in Floyd --ed] might head to Penn State for an unofficial visit. The Nittany Lions play the Buckeyes and it should be a crazy game and a full white-out. And I want to end with this with my top five.

Can I have a drum roll please? In no particular order, they are: Florida, Ohio State, North Carolina, South Carolina and USC.

For starters: someone isn't reading their daily-Daily Collegian. Ohio State isn't "a full white-out," and not even a fun alternative like "stupid tie-die shirt you bought at the FCL for $8 day."

Also, are you allowed to make a visit to a school to see another team play? Someone ask the caring is creepy experts.

The schools failed him. Taylor Mays did something dirty in USC's game against Oregon State, and the Pac-10 has decided that the best way to handle this is suspend the referee who missed the penalty. Because when you steal and get away with it, really the cop should go to jail.

A week after exonerating USC safety Taylor Mays for a penalty that was called against him at Notre Dame, the Pacific 10 Conference on Monday suspended an official for not calling a facemask penalty against the two-time All-American.

[...]

"We have taken this action in light of the blatant and dangerous nature of the missed call," Pac-10 Commissioner Larry Scott said in a statement. "We have full confidence in our highly trained and qualified staff of football officials, but they, like the coaches and players [O Rly? --ed], are accountable and must meet the high expectations placed upon them."

The call in question:

So, yeah, stupid ref, what were you thinking. This is clearly all your fault, as Mays obviously isn't in need of cleaning up his own work.

Oh yeah, never mind.

In score of other games. Decker is done, so you can now call Iowa's remaining schedule that much more manageable...but then again they've just lost running back Adam Robinson for the year...Wrestling coach Cael Sanderson is making some questionable redshirt moves...Penn State continues to feel the hate in the Mumme Poll as a very distant 12...Iowa's SOS is several 1's and 0's better than yours.

Wrap-Up: And Then There Were Three

Kevin HD — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 01:32:09 -0000

More photos » by Al Goldis - AP

James Vandenberg whispering sweet nothings to Ricky Stanzi. (AP Photo/Al Goldis)

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Iowa 15, Michigan State 13

Penn State's chances of sole possession of the Big Ten crown (or as we've been calling it since 2005: actually winning the conference) fell well below 1% last night when Ricky Stanzi threw a game winning touchdown pass with just 2 seconds on the clock.

It was a true defensive slugfest for over 50 minutes. Up until the drive that gave Iowa a 9-6 lead, the two teams combined for just one drive over 70 yards, just two drives over 50 yards.

And I can't find out why this happened: after Iowa scored the winning touchdown with no time on the clock, they were forced to "attempt" the extra point. They did the obvious thing and took a knee, but since when do they require this? The only thing I can think of, and I'm all speculation here (none of the beat stories I've found address this): Dantonio demanded it. Score another one for the sore loser?

Iowa will finish with Indiana, Northwestern, Ohio State and Minnesota. The chances of them falling twice in those four games is low; Iowa fans can officially begin to worry about being shut out if Texas and Floribama win out.

Ohio State 38, Minnesota 7

The sky was falling in the state of Ohio last week and everyone was ready to send super-recruit Pryor back to wherever he came from.

But the preseason offensive player of the year rebounded from his four-turnover performance against Purdue to demolish a Gopher team that is heading 100 MPH towards the bottom of the Big Ten standings. It didn't help UM moral when the only standout on the team, Eric Decker, went out early in the game with an ankle injury.

It was a slow start for the Buckeyes but they finished strong -- over 500 yards of offense, 5.5 yard per rush and a 4-1 turnover ratio. Pryor led the team in rushing with over 100 yards and had another 239 through the air to wide-frickin-open receivers.

The Ohio State defense is the real deal, however, and they have been most of the season.

Ohio State is very much still in control of their destiny...winning out puts them in the Rose Bowl and they get Iowa at home.

Northwestern 29, Indiana 28

Indiana reaches a new painful low. Up 28-3 with 7:31 to go in the 1st half, they gave up 26 unanswered points until they were faced with 21 seconds on the clock and a 59-yard field goal for the win. What really hurts is that they almost made it, the kick was solid and on line, but fell three or four yards short.

But my favorite part of the game? Definitely Pat Fitzgerald's post game interview in which he enlightened us with something like, "There are three kinds of people in the world," and then went right along and explained to us what none of them are. I love when football gets philosophical.

The Hoosiers went 3-1 with a softer non-con schedule than Penn State (including a blowout loss to hapless Virginia) but now have their second heartbreaking loss of the Big Ten schedule.

They need two more wins against Wisconsin, Penn State and Purdue or it's nothing but Rotel for December.

Northwestern now holds five wins but faces a brutal final stretch: Penn State, Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin.

Purdue 24, Illinois 14

Two teams with four wins between them faced off in a game that was forgettable and difficult to watch. Purdue jumped out to an early lead, outgained Illinois by 60 yards and avoided a letdown after the big win last week against Ohio State.

I'm now kicking myself every week for thinking Illinois would be competent this season. Williams went 9 for 18 with a pick, rushed for just 38 yards on 14 carries, and ended up getting benched for someone named Jacob Charest.

They've lost five in a row and haven't scored over 17 points all season. I don't know how Zook can keep his job (update: but he will).

What we know.

The standings look like this:

Iowa has already bested MSU and Wisconsin, so only if the Hawkeyes somehow fall three times in the next four weeks do those teams have a chance. In other words, they don't have a chance.

So it's now a three-horse race, although only Iowa and Ohio State control their own destinies. Penn State can win a Buckeye Crown(R) with a win against Ohio State and a Hawkeye loss to Tressel the following week.