I just want to say upfront that the best run franchises in the league such as the Spurs and Thunder control their own destiny and don't rely on outside influences to help build their teams. Good teams are not short sighted. They have a vision and a plan to execute that vision. The Magic unfortunately have not shown the characteristics of a well run team. I will hopefully address these issues and how the magic can make corrections.

What is the vision of this magic team?

Lets talk about the identity for the product on the court. The 4-1 scheme has been in my opinion a success. With a rare talent such as Dwight I feel like the 4-1 offensive scheme maximizes Dwight's influence on the court offensively. However, the Lewis for Arenas trade actually went against the 4-1 scheme. Why not see if Turk and Lewis can replicate the chemistry that had in 09? The arenas trade would be there, NO ONE else would have traded for him. Not only that you can evaluate Arenas with more games underneath his belt to see if there was any signs of recovery with his bum knee. All this to say that for Dwight to stay, Richardson needs to shoot to his career #'s  , have Bass get back into his jump shooting groove, and Arenas needs to show signs of explosiveness that made him a special player. The last of these being the least likely. So the verdict is to keep the 4-1 offensive scheme. 

So the problem is the front office. Otis Smith seems to have no real long term plan to build a young championship core around Dwight Howard. If you are trying to win now then why not keep hedo AND trade for vince? ultimately, this lead to the magic trading away gortat and MP, two of the magics best defensive players and our 2012 #1 draft pick.

okay this would be the lineup for the magic, nelson, carter, turk, lewis, and howard  with MP, Gortat, JJ, and bass coming off the bench. we would still be in the same salary cap situation except with alot of assets and depth. if this didn't work out then you would have carter's expiring, gortat, a #1 pick, and bass/anderson to trade for another piece. 

If otis thought turk was too old and the plan was to blow up the finals team the best option would be to develop lee as our starting shooting guard and bass as a mid range stretch 4. Nothing having anderson would suck but the lineup would be young and in my opinion promising  with nelson, lee, mp, lewis, and dwight.  bass,  JJ , gortat on the bench.

Yes, i'm living in hypothetical world here. the point is i don't think Otis really had a consistent plan. they hedged and now the team is stuck in the middle, not going to win now and with no flexiblity to do anythign about, and no realistic future aspirations.

The solution is to hire Kevin Pritchard and go into full rebuilding mode. He has a strong track record of having good drafts and identifying  young talent. He is ideal because whether Dwight is staying or not the team needs to rebuild with young talent.  Trade pieces such as bass, jj, anderson, and nelson if necessary.

I don't know if dwight told the FO that they need to win now to keep him, if he did then the FO shouldve told him the best thing is to take a few steps back so that they can make the leap forward. Maybe the pressure came from above, Mr Devos is old and he might be itching to win a title ASAP. Maybe the pressure was from the city officials that wants a title in the brand new building they built for political reasons. But i don't think any of these circumstances are any different around the league. We had no vision and no plan, now we are nowhere.

Chandler, Gallo, Felton, Mozgov and a first round pick in 2014

OR

Nelson, Richardson, Bass(or anderson), JJ redick, clark and a first round pick in 2013

Since the market has been set for a "super star," i think the magic has a comparable assets to make a trade. It would be gutting the team for sure but it would be worth it to pair dwight with a Cp3 or Dwill.  

This of course is in a vaccum, CP3 and Dwill are not pushing for a trade like carmelo. I don't think it would be worth it unless it was for one of these two players.

any other player you think is worth gutting the team for (realistically)?

Which package is better magics or knicks?

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=24by9os

The magic get nene and j.r. smith.. obviously we get an additional inside presence with nene and a sharpshooter in smith. Losing richardson hurts because smith is a down grade but the additional inside presence might be a necessity with Bass hurt and gortat gone.

The knicks get carmelo.they give young talent in chandler, douglas and gallinari but they get the pairing of melo and amare. You might ask why would they do that if they know they could get him next summer. I would say Melo might be anxious to get his extension before the CBA.

Denver blows up their team but acquires really nice young pieces, not potential superstar piece but solid. They would also pick up a draft pick or two from the knicks. THey would also shed  25 millions off their books next year.

Who says no?

I was extremely distressed when I first heard about the blockbuster trades this past weekend. It seemed like Otis Smith made a panic move and in doing so gave up any kind of financial flexibility for the next four years. Compounded with the sudden Dwight to lakers talk after 2012 my outlook for the magic was dimmed to say the least. Although the potential for this years team is unreached and the Magic can still make a run for a championship I have resorted to one last hope for the magic; the next CBA.  

The best thing for the magic might be a CBA where contracts will be partially guaranteed and that teams with bird rights will have even more advantages in keep their own players. In this scenario, Arenas' contract could be voided or only partially guaranteed. 

What are battle fronts for the next CBA? Will there be a hard cap?

Here we go.. Lets say Denver decides to trade melo so they wont be left empty handed when he leaves over the summer. He obviously has alot more leverage then CP3. If that is the case, then Billups would be a pretty expensive piece for a team that wont make it past the first round.  This is where the magic come in, two first round draft picks over the next three years, Jameer Nelson ( saves DEN 13 million over the next two years, Gortat ( on a great contract for a starting center), and Vince Carters ( expiring contract so that Denver still has flexibility next summer and this trade deadline). The magic would pick up Melo and Billups.

Starting lineups

Billups, Reddick/ Q-rich, Melo, Lewis, Howard

Discuss.

who says NO first?

lets say PHO bombs by mid season would you guys trade jameer for nash? straight up... Although I love Jameer i think this would be an interesting scenario.. I'll admit that it would be a short term decision but what if we realize the Heat are ripe for the taking this year, it might be worth it to go for it. I think Nash is a clear upgrade as a shooter and passer. Defensively speaking.. im not sure how much better Jameer might be.. what do you guys think?

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=2dp2lvk

four team trade

orl gets cp3, battier, posey

hou- okafor, granger, hansborugh

indy- nelson, gortat, west, ariza

no- yao, vc, mike dunleavy (the thre combined about 50 mill off the books!!!) lance stephenson, jordan hill, 3 mill cash from orlando, 2011 and 2013 1st rd  picks from orlando 2012 first rd pick from Hou( that used to be NYK). and daniel orton.

why i think this works.. for orlando you get cp3 without picking up okafor and bodies to throw at wade and lbj, Indy gets nelson, gortat, west and ariza at  bargain prices with alot of flexibility to move forward, with danny granger they were always going to be an "almost good team" but never better.. they re start and gets alot of players in return that can be flipped.  Houston gets granger a scorer they need badly and a solid center.

NO, gets almost 50 million dollars off the books the after the first year, two solid pieces in stephenson, and hill as well as three first round picks, one from the knicks that can be a lottery pick. They would be setup to make free agent signings next summer and build through the draft which is what Demps learned from SA. according to hollinger, everything would gain atleast two wins except for NO.

why it doesnt work... that is ALOT of parts moving around. HOU might not want to pick up okafor even though they would get granger. Indy might not want to blow it up yet either and would like to keep granger around.

WHo says no first?

Three way trade between the bobcats, No, and orl

orl- posey, paul, and okafor

bobcats- jameer, gortat or bass

No- VC, Diaw, MOhammed

Orl- gets size and of course cp3

Cha- gets jameer to replace felton, and cheap size

NO- gets about 34 million off the books next year and saves about 70 million bucks total

Im sure there is variations of this trade that is possible that includes draft picks.

Who says no first?

Orlando- paul, battier (duke reunion tour continues), okafor

NO- vince carter, trevor ariza, jordan hill

Houston- tyson chandler, ryan anderson, brandon bass

Cha- jameer, gortat

Orlando gets paul, i dont really need to explain that part, we get battier to defend james, and okafor to give us a defensive and rebounding presence next to d12.

NO- gets cap relief and two young players at a cheap price (still might not be enough...i know, we just have to hope the owner gets desperate and paul gets more vocal)

HOuston get chandler the player they covet next to yao, and two young fours

Cha get a cheap big and jameer to replace felton,

discuss, who says no? would it be enough for the magic?

Who says no first? why?

BEAT THE HEAT!!

NO, Memphis, Magic

NO- OJ Mayo, VC expiring contract, D arthur, orton

Memphis- Jameer

Magic- Paul, Posey, and okafor

Magic gets the best pg/c combo, size, and postseason veteran

NO- gets a young asset in mayo, and expiring contract in VC, a young big in orton, and LOTS of money off the contract

Memphis- gets the point guard they need at a bargain price

Discuss. Maybe too much for memphis to give up? who walks away from this deal first?

Here is what we should do-

Step one- sign salmons for the MLE if he gets a richer deal then sign Mike Miller for the MLE.

Step two- trade Gortat/VC/orton and jammer for CP3/Posey/okafor and whatever filler that makes the salaries work

Step Three- match JJ redicks contract

Starting five

cp3, d12, shard, miller or salmons and jj redick

bench

okafor, pietrus, bass, posey,

bigger, stronger, versatile, and with posey championship leadership.