Does getting Beasley cure all the other ills?

Like some of what Kahn has done at the end of the bench 

Both Telfair and Ridnour have contributed. 

We haven't seen Webster yet, but I think he will be good. 

One of our "big 3" is still in Europe. 

Jury is still out on Milicic in my opinion. 

Jefferson trade didn't bring much, but haven't heard many other GM's saying they would have offered much more. It did clear playing time for Love and Beasley, which is obviously a good thing. 

Toliver and Gaines, cheap pick ups. The little I've seen them has been good. 

Now, if Flynn can have a good year and show Curry wasn't a slam dunk over him, I'll be a happy camper. 

Might Kahn have generally gotten it right? 

As in all these evaluations time will tell, but I'm much happier than I was before the big improvement in performance. 

I have NOT watched Evan Turner this season. But I look at his stats and cringe. He was supposed to be a "sure thing". [I thought so too, though I liked Johnson almost as much before the draft.] 

His PER places him 22nd among rookies. 

For comparison's sake:

#1 Wall - 18.76

#2 Griffin - 16.88

#5 Aminu - 15.45

#6 Favors - 15.19

#8 Splitter - 12.96

#9 Cousins - 12.95

#15 Paul George - 10.24

# 16 Wes Johnson - 9.96

#20 Xavier Henry - 9.34

#21 Pekovic - 8.74

#22 - Evan Turner - 8.61

Have any of the Turner fans seen him play and can they explain? [I was a fan of Turner's also, but can't comment since I haven't seen him play.] 

Must admit I'm disappointed with Johnson's & Pekovic stats also.  But Johnson seems to be learning to be a defensive stopper and I have seen improvement in Wes's game watching him play. 

Just not sure what Turner is doing. 

Thoughts?

There don't appear to be many "great" trading partners.  We might be "giving away" Jefferson. 

Boston - Yes, have expressed interest can trade Wallace contract to provide cap space. 

New Jersey - Yes, if they don't want to wait for Favors to mature 

New York - No,  Not with Amare

Philly - No, Not with Brand

Toronto - Yes, Need Bosch replacement

Chicago - No, not with Boozer signed

Cleveland - unclear what they will do with lebron gone, trade away assets [rebuild] or still try to win. 

Detroit - Yes, need  a big man, is there anything that they have that we want and need?

Indiana - maybe, but they keep saying no to Jefferson. 

Milwaukee - maybe, but can Bogut and jefferson coexist?

Atlanta - No, they are keeping their core. 

Charlotte - No, Brown is focused on defense

Miami - No! 

Orlando - Yes, they want to keep up with the Miami "arms race", but what could they give us that we want??

Washington- Maybe, but unlikely, they are going young. 

Denver - Yes, they want to upgrade to compete and keep Carmelo [he hasn't accepted the extension yet.] 

Oklahoma City - Maybe, but will they give anything up in a trade? 

Portland - No, have 4 big men - Oden, Pryzbilla, Aldridge and Camby

Utah - Maybe,  want replacement for Boozer? 

Golden State - No, they are a running team. Jefferson doesn't fit. 

LA Lakers  - No, they are set

LA Clippers - No, they have Kaman and Griffini

Phoenix - Maybe, they might want replacement for Amare, but does jefferson fit their style?

Sacramento - No, just took Cousins and Whiteside 

Dallas - No, just resigned Haywood. 

Houston -  Maybe, depends what happens to Scola and what they have to give up. 

Memphis - No, Gasol, Randolph and Thabeet. 

New Orleans - Maybe, Chris Paul wants to upgrade roster, but is there anything we want?

San Antonio - Maybe, need help for Duncan - but they hare defensive team?

I'm assuming we are NOT getting another Big Man or Point Guard. 

Best SF & SG ranked by PER for last season.  I'm assuming that Kahn believes that Wes Johnson can play SG since he pursued Rudy Gay. Also keep in mind that Deng is one of the better defenders in that group. 

SF (all of the "above average") 

1) Lebron 31.2

2) Durant 26.2

3) Carmelo 22.3

4) Maggette 20.4

5) Granger 19.6

6) Wallace 18.4

7) Kirilenko 18.3

8) Pierce 18.3

9) Batum 17.3

10) Gay 16.3

11) Deng 16.1

12) Prince 16.1

Shooting Guards with "above average" PER

1) Wade 28.1

2) Ginoboli 22.5

3) Bryant 22.0

4) Roy 21.4

5) Johnson 19.3

6) Rodrigue Beaubois 18.6

7) Crawford 18.5

8) Iguodala 17.8

9) Marcus Thornton 17.5

10) Carter 17.1

11) Martin 17.1

12) Ellis 16.7

13) Richardson 16.6

14) Terry 16.6

15) Jackson 15.7

16) Ray Allen 15.2

17) JR Smith 15.2

18) Hamilton 15.0

Who do we have a realistic chance to get?

Some say they like Iguodala, but Phllly doesn't need another PF, so I doubt they take Jefferson for him. 

Who is gettable? Kirilenko (worse contract than Deng); Prince (getting old!); Crawford (bad contract and getting old, not a good defender); Martin or Ellis (not good defenders); 

If we want to trade Al Jefferson [and I'm not sold on that], the best option available is still Luol Deng. He plays SF and Wes Johnson plays SG. We trade either Brewer or Webster. Deng is expensive for what he does, but he is still a very good player. If we get another good young player thrown in, the trade is the best option available.  

In the poll below I try to flesh out why people don't want Deng. Please answer the poll. 

Was this draft a disaster as many have said?

I don't think so. We added two talented athletic wings who can play defense and some players to stash in Europe. We still have our money available to get a free agent. We still have Rubio and Pekovic as assets. 

Might Cousins be the best talent in the draft. Maybe? But maybe not also and if he is, there will be 4 GM's with egg on their faces not just Kahn. 

Wes could be rookie of the year in my  view. He could be that good. He is also a team player with lots of maturity. Many people are upset because he is 23 and not 19 but they forget that most players came into the league after college until not too long ago. Bird was 24 when he came into the NBA.  Most players who start younger break down earlier. We are seeing that now with KG and many others. Kobe is the exception, but he also didn't play a lot in his first few years. 

Martell Webster is a good addition. He has played excellent defense at times stopping great players like Durant and Kobe . With two wings who can be defensive stoppers - Brewer, Webster, Johnson - that will be it easier for Jefferson, Love etc to stop penetration. They will have much more defensive help out on the wing. Webster is also a very good 3 point shooter. Thats why Kahn got webster, much better defender than Gomes and also an excellent 3 point shooter. 

Must admit I don't know much about our other pick ups, so I won't comment. 

But I'm guessing we didn't go after a big man because we are keeping Jefferson and Love and going to sign Pekovic and resign Darko.  

CHAD FORD'S BIG BOARD

Rk	Name	Pos.	From	Stock
1	John Wall	PG	Kentucky
This Derrick Rose clone could follow i ... More »
2	Evan Turner	SG	Ohio State
Turner declared for the 2010 NBA Draft ... More »
3	Derrick Favors	PF	Georgia Tech
Super athletic big man has the physica ... More »
4	DeMarcus Cousins	C	Kentucky
Declared for the 2010 draft on April 7 ... More »
5	Wesley Johnson	SF	Syracuse
Johnson's combination of athleticism, ... More »
6	Al-Farouq Aminu	SF	Wake Forest
Long, athletic forward in the Anthony ... More »
7	Ed Davis	PF	North Carolina
Great upside, but he's returning for h ... More »
8	Cole Aldrich	C	Kansas
Skilled big man has huge upside, but c ... More »
9	Jan Vesely	PF	Czech Republic
Plays for KK Partizan Belgrade in the ... More »
10	Greg Monroe	PF	Georgetown
Multitalented big man has shaken his s ... More »

http://espn.go.com/nba/draft

With the 2nd most ping pong balls what are the odds of us winding up in 1st, 2nd etc...?

1. - about 19.9% [wall?]
2. - about 18.8% [Turner?]
3. - about 17.1% [most project Cousins here] 
4. - about 31.9% [most project favors here] 
5. - about 12.3%

* Assuming Turner is a top 2 pick, our odds of getting him are 38.7%

* Our odds of getting a top 3 pick = 55.8%, so slightly better than half. 

* What spot are we most likely to get, 4th at 31.9%; so if I were a betting man and had to chose where we end up, its 4th. 

* So the question becomes, unless we get lucky who do we want 3rd, 4th or 5th? 
* Personally I wouldn't touch Favors with ten foot pole. 
* Cousins has tremendous talent, but is he a nut? 
* We need wings with shooting and athleticism. The best shooter who is a high pick is Wes Johnson, who is also an exceptional shot blocker for a wing. 

If you look at the players Kahn has brought into the team, I'd say his record is more bad than good. 

If you look at his efforts to provide flexibility in the roster, get another HIGH lottery pick, and other picks in a good draft, have cap space in a great free agent year, his record looks much better. But  Kahn must deliver this summer. 

)))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))

What have Kahns personnel decisions been thus far?

Flynn – 6th pick over CURRY – FAILURE in my opinion

Hollins – 3 year deal – FAILURE in my opinion

Sessions – 4 year deal – undecided, but not really used well by his coach

Rubio  5th pick- undecided - depends if he ever plays here or what we get for him [Drafting Rubio was a good risk] 

Pecherov/Jawai/Darko – testing people cheap – GOOD MOVE

Pavlovic – 1 year deal – so not big commitment, but FAILURE as a signing….

Wilkins – 1 year deal – good guy to keep, he has helped the team…..OK

Overall, so far it it NOT a good record…..but if Rubio is great and plays here or brings us a superlative talent and if good moves are made in the draft, trade and free agent markets this summer, he can makes us forget all of the bad moves like Hollins & Flynn. 

I'd say Kahn must deliver a .500 team next season. 

* He has allstar level talent in jefferson and love. 

* At least a top 5 lottery pick

* Two more 1st round picks in a great draft

* Enough free agent money to get a TOP player this summer

* Pekovic & Flynn as a trade assets

* Decent players in Darko, Brewer, Gomes, Sessions

If at the end of next season, the wolves are not at least a .500 team, barring major team injury, Kahn should be looking over his shoulder.

9. Sixth Man Of The Year Watch

1. Jamal Crawford, Hawks:Despite coming off the bench, he's one of the league leaders in fourth-quarter scoring, is the Hawks' second-leading scorer and is one of the biggest reasons for all the optimism coming out of Atlanta. (Last week: 1)

2. Manu Ginobili, Spurs: Rumors of Manu's demise have been greatly exaggerated. His all-around game has been fantastic for the past month. (Last week: 3)

3. Jason Terry, Mavs: Dallas is rolling (eight straight wins) and Terry is showing off the form that earned him last season's Sixth Man of the Year award. He made several big shots in the Mavericks' win against the Bobcats on Monday. (Last week: 4)

4. Kevin Love, Wolves: He has embraced his role of coming off the bench and is a threat to notch a double-double on a nightly basis. (Last week: NR)

5. Anderson Varejao, Cavs: His combination of energy, ability to keep the ball alive and always being in the right position is one of the keys to what the Cavs do defensively. (Last week: 5)

To read the full Awards Watch, click here.

The wolves are missing what I will call "winning character" as well as talent.  The bigger issue is talent, but I'm not sure you can win a championship without the tough mindedness shown by "winning character". 

Continue reading this post »

What stood out for me.  

* Sessions is still much much better than Flynn, if winning is the goal. 

* Ellington has really improved from the start of the year. 

* Wilkins is contributing. 

* What happened to Love and Gomes? [crazy rotations] 

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Sessions in ALL of the top 5 and 7 out of top 10 

--------------------------------

Ellington in Top 3 and 6 of top 10

---------------------------------------------

Jefferson in 4 of the top 5, including top 2. In 5 of top 10. 

--------------------------------------------------

Brewer in 4 of top 10

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wilkins in 4 of top 10 

------------------------------------

Hollins is in 4 of top 10 

--------------------------

Love in 3 of top 10 

-------------------------------

Gomes in top 1 and 3 of top 10

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Flynn in 3 of top 10

http://www.nba.com/statistics/plusminus/plusminus_sort.jsp?pcomb=5&season=22009&split=22&team=Timberwolves

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As a contrast to the data above see which individual player has had the best plus minus for the last 10 days....

Keep in mind that all of Jeffersons - minus - has been since injured in the charlotte game.... but who is at the top?

http://www.nba.com/statistics/plusminus/plusminus_sort.jsp?pcomb=1&season=22009&split=22&team=Timberwolves

Nov - 94.4 - ranked 28th; opponents 105.7 - ranked 26th = net - Minus 11.3 

Dec - 98.9 - ranked 16th; opponents 105.1 - ranked 25th = net - Minus 6.4

Jan - 102.9 - ranked 9th; opponents 110.2 - ranked 29th = net - minus 7.3

Feb - 99 - ranked 18th; opponents 103.9- ranked 25th. = net - minus 4.9 

Feb only through Heat game - 9 games....

We appear to be making some progress our net negative margin has gone from 11.3 (Nov) to 6.4 (Dec) back up to 7.3 in Jan and is now down to minus 4.9. in Feb.

If we could find a way to combine our best monthly performance on offense, which was 102.9 in Jan with our defensive performance in Feb, 103.9..... that would put us close to the middle of the pack for net margin of minus 1  in the NBA. 

Mostly we do three things. 

1) We look at the teams defense - how much is scored on the team and then "allocate the blame"

2) we use our eyes to tell us, what is happening on the floor. 

3) we use statistical techniques like plus/minus, on floor/off floor etc..... 

Do they tell always tell us the right story?

Continue reading this post »

Thought I'd try to compare jefferson to his peer group.  [I did some searches on basketball reference.com] 

Continue reading this post »

Most fans don't like him because of what he isn't - KG. Maybe we do what we did for Foye, give him another environment to play. Its clear to me that too many wolves fans will look for any excuse to say Jefferson is a bad player. Case in point!

BOTH of Jefferson's knees have been hurting him since the Charlotte game. 

Does he ask to sit, no!  He plays through it. And suddenly he is an awful player with a plus minus of MINUS 37 against the Thunder. 

Since the Charlotte game [vs. Thunder, Bulls, Pistons, Wizards]  jefferson has averaged 13 pts and 5.8 rebounds. Does that sound like a healthy Jefferson??

Did Jefferson play with Darko at all? No! 

He spent most of his time on the court with Hollins, who is arguably the most clueless player in the NBA today. Hollins defensive rotations are always wrong.  He doesn't understand the game of basketball. 

Gomes, the other player Jefferson spent much time on the floor with also had a bad game. He was 0 for 9. 

But what do most fans here see?  Bad play from Jefferson. 

Personally, I think Jefferson should sit until his (other) knee is healthy. But he cares too much about the team to do that. But, if Jefferson sits for a bunch of games because of his knee, he trade value will drop. 

I've come to the conclusion, that Jefferson should be traded by the wolves. He needs to go somewhere where he will be appreciated. Most fans here will get what they wanted pretty much since he arrived. Get to see the back of him.

Jefferson will get to play somewhere, where he isn't blamed for "causing KG to be gone" and isn't constantly compared one of the best defensive big man over  the last decade. 

My only hope for Jefferson is that he gets to play for a contender.  He is a good guy and I wish him the best. 

If I was jefferson's agent, I'd do my best to block trades to teams that don't have a chance to win - by threatening to "shoot my way out of town" if traded to a team that was't a contender. But Jefferson to this point, hasn't been selfish enough to support that type of strategy. 

It will be interesting to see who the wolves get for Jefferson. 

For all of those who want to trade jefferson, I'd get Rambis to play him more, or it will further hurt his trade value. 

The universe of "gettable" wings or big men is limited. 

I'm assuming most teams won't want to give up jefferson for a center. They'd want him to play PF and pair him with a good defensive center. 

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Wings who might be available in a Jefferson trade:

Gay, Deng, Kirilenko, Wallace, Granger, Maggette, Joe Johnson, Crawford, Iguodala, Ellis, Martin, & Jackson.

------------------------------

Big men who might be available in a Jefferson trade:

Stoudemire, Boozer, Randolph, Murphy, Brand, Beasley, Tyrus Thomas, Millsap, Kaman, Okafor, Dalembert, Haywood, Bargnani, 

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What trade would you like to see for jefferson. Keep in mind that if he keeps playing with the sore knee his stats will be lower, reducing his trade value. If he doesn't play, that could also hurt his trade value. 

What would be the "ideal trade" and what do you realistically expect to get?

This is the deal:

 Martin, Kenny Thomas, Hilton Armstrong and Sergio Rodriguez to the Rockets for McGrady, Sixth Man Award contenderCarl Landry, Joey Dorsey and an undisclosed amount of cash.

We could have sent expirings and a mid-to-late 1st round pick, or include a sessions or flynn or some combination of those things. 

it didn't take much to get Martin. I think Houston made a great trade. I wish it had been us.