SB Nation User Blog: KevinV

The Marlins: A good fit for a trade?

KevinV — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 18:42:16 -0000

Going in to the 2008 off season the Indians find them selves is need of another infielder. The Marlins find them selves with infielders Dan Uggla and Jorge Cantu in their arbitration years and have internal options waiting in the wings to replace them. The Marlins will not keep both, if either of them.

Dan Uggla, 2B:

Service Time Estimate: 3.000 Years

Fielding: Awful. Lowest rated 2B according to the 2007 Fielding Bible at -19 plays above an average 2B. Embarassed himself at the All Star game this year, committing 3 errors.

Hitting: He would would be an impact bat. He has 30+HR power. A free swinger, he struck out 123/167/171 over the last 3 years but his OPS+ was still 112/108/121 over that same time. He had a very strong .260/.360/.514 line in 2008.

Overall: I think that despite his flaws, he would a piece to build around for the next 3 years. If they could stomach Jhonny at 3B and Uggla at 2B defensively, we would get very solid production from our infield.

Price: High. He would probably cost a lot to acquire. He is under club control for another 3 years, is an All Star impact bat and is in his prime (age 28). Lots of teams would like a player like that. I think FLA is really willing to move him though, as they want to have a more defensive focus next year and probably will not want to pay his arbitration adjusted salary.

Jorge Cantu 2B/3B:

Service Time Estimate: 4.036 Years

Fielding: 2B: Well below average 2004-2006

3B: Below Average, but not a disaster in 2008.

Hitting: A career OPS+ of 110. Decent Power. Poor plate discipline. Doesn't walk very much and strikes out a high rate. He would probably give us Blake like production with a little more power.

Overall: He would be at least a solid stop gap at 3B. We would get passable defense with good production. I've given up on the Marte project for the moment, at least as far as starting goes. We need to contend now and we need production from 3B to contend. Cantu could provide a lot more production than Marte at this point.

Blake is our best FA 3B option and Cantu is clearly a better choice, being younger, having more power and costing much less both in years and dollars per year.

Price: More affordable than Uggla. He is also due for a pay bump, but is only under club control for another 2 years instead of 3.

Florida's wants:

Improve defensively.
OF's with speed.
Young Pitching

So what do we have that they might want?

First off, our biggest chip, Shoppach doesn't match with FLA at all. They have a good youngish catcher in Baker. Shoppach is also entering his arbitration years and will cost some actual currency to employ so we can forget about anything that involves him.

Gutz seems like a good fit, at least a piece in a trade. He had a disappointing year offensively last year, but is a defensive stud.

Trevor Crowe might also work. Speedy, young, & under club control. He came back solidly last year.

Pitching: We have a variety of young pitchers that they would want.

Prospects: We have reloaded our farm system nicely. I could see us moving some of our guys if we can next an everyday player.

Actual Trade Ideas:

It's hard to guess what players would be involved in a swap, especially when the Marlins would probably be at least partially looking for prospects. They might be willing to go pretty far down in the system for people one might not consider at first. But I might as well take a guess.

For Uggla:

I think there will be a lot of competition for him with the FA market being so thin. Would Gutz/Crowe + Sowers/Laffey + Meloan get it done? I'm hesitant to trade young controlled pitching, but if we can flip Shoppach for a starter, I'd be fine dealing one of our lefties. I might even include Atom Miller instead of Meloan if really pressed.

For Cantu:

I'm less enthusiastic about Cantu as a player, but I think the demand for him might also be lower. I think Gutz/Crowe + 2 lower level pitchers gets it done.

That's all I have at this point. I think acquiring either of these guys would be a good move for us. It's just a matter of how much FLA is asking.

Paul Byrd projected to be a Type B Free Agent

KevinV — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 18:43:34 -0000

Paul Byrd projected to be a Type B Free Agent

I hope the possible PTBNL is at least decent prospect. Otherwise the Indians probably didn't get enough for Byrd. I think a compensatory draft pick (probably in the #50 to #70 range) is worth more than the $2M salary savings.

LaPorta beaned in USA-China game

KevinV — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 16:15:18 -0000

LaPorta beaned in USA-China game

LaPorta was hit IN THE HEAD by a pitch in the top of the 7th inning of the 9-1 US win over China today. He seems like he is OK and was able to leave the field under his own power. The beaning was in retaliation for a home plate collision that he had with the Chinese catcher that knocked the catcher out of the game with a knee injury. LaPorta was one of five US players to be hit by a pitch.

The lone Chinese run in the game came on a solo HR where the hitter kept his right arm raised in the air the entire time he circled the bases.

Lefebvre really put together a class act organization over there. Nice job.

UPDATE: Hoynes is reporting that LaPorta suffered a concussion but apparently nothing more serious, based on a CAT scan and other tests. (Hat-tip to palcal.) It's not clear if he'll play again in these Olympics, but without him, Team USA wold be down to just one bench player. My guess is that he'll sit out the next game but will play in the medal round if we advance.

I also cleaned up the wording to clarify that China did not "bean" five different players, since "bean" means "hit in the head." [Jay]

Stephen Strasburg: 2009 #1 Overall Pick? Future Indian?

KevinV — Thu, 10 Jul 2008 02:59:05 -0000

Stephen Strasburg: 2009 #1 Overall Pick? Future Indian?

This guy looks pretty phenomenal so far. He'll probably be represented by Boras and everything. I really hope that wouldn't deter Shapiro.

Here's hoping our epic failure is enough to get him.

Race to the Bottom: "Why Losing is not Bad" or "How I Learned to Love the Bombing"

KevinV — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 02:32:28 -0000

Obviously all teams want to win every game they play and Shapiro and Wedge would tell you that they wan to win as many games as possible this year. But with the Indians officially in retooling mode for 2008, the team priority changes from maximizing 2008 wins to player development. But beyond that there is in fact a real incentive to lose as many games as possible for the remainder of the year, 2009 Draft position.

Being very high in the draft gives a team a shot at much higher ceiling guys. A good illustration of this is In the 2007 draft, we got Beau Mills at #13 but LaPorta could have been had at #7. Shapiro himself mentioned the fact that the Indians have only gotten to pick in the top 10 of the draft once in the past 10 years (2004 #6 Jeremy Sowers) and haven't picked in the top 5 during the CC press conference. He contended that the lack of high picks has left a dearth of "ceiling"/"impact" type players in an otherwise solid farm system.

If that weren't incentive enough to lose, having a top 15 pick also shields us from losing our #1 as a compensatory pick if we were to sign a type A free agent. This could be handy considering the cash we will have to play with this off season. According to Cots Contracts we have 8 guys owed raises next year, to a tune of $13.6M. But if we can unload Dellucci, we will have freed up a total of $35.5M for 2009. That gives us $21.9M to play with with out even increasing the payroll. We could easily make a run at someone like Brian Fuentes with that kind of cash available. Not having to give up our 1st round pick makes it much more palatable.

Those are some reasons why losing in 2008 is good. Now let's look at how many games we would need to lose.

Shapiro drew a distinction between top 5 picks and all others, so I used being a top 5 pick as the objective. Over the last 10 years the average number of losses required to be the #5 pick in the draft was 93.7, I'll round that up to an even 94. The good news is that's the number of games we are on pace to lose at our current .420 clip.

But can we keep up this torrid pace? I think it is pretty obvious that we can. There is no telling how bad we can be after the trades. My hope is that Shapiro cuts quickly and deeply to maximize our losing over the next month or so while our core guys heal. I think the ideal situation is total ineptitude for the remainder of July, say 5-14, followed by a bad but better August, 11-17, and ending the season with a gloriously mediocre September at 15-13.

That would give us a solid 95 losses and a little bit of positive momentum going in to 2009. So in summary, I hope it gets really bad in the short term to make things better in the long term. We are already bad, we might as well be really bad and get the most out of an off year.

Rosenthal: After Sabathia, the Indians' player drawing the most trade interest is third baseman...

KevinV — Fri, 27 Jun 2008 20:21:58 -0000

Rosenthal:
After Sabathia, the Indians' player drawing the most trade interest is third baseman Casey Blake, who leads the majors with a 1.281 OPS with runners in scoring position.

Blake, who turns 35 on Aug. 23, is coveted because of his ability to play first base and both outfield corners as well as third; he would be a good fit for teams such as the Dodgers, Mets and A's. Class AA third baseman Wes Hodges projects as the long-term replacement for Blake, who is a free agent at the end of the season.

Official 2008 Indians Sweet Surrender Photoshop Thread

KevinV — Fri, 13 Jun 2008 00:38:17 -0000

The last photoshop thread we had on here, started by the inimitable emd2k3, really helped me vent my frustration over the whole Blake/Wedge situation. So what better way to lament our latest and greatest additions to the DL (Victor and Barfield) and the subsequent loss of all hope for the 2008 season than with another photoshop thread?

With that in mind, here's my first attempt at capturing the current mood...

Lets go Tribe!

Would Shapiro pony up for Huston Street?

KevinV — Fri, 04 Jan 2008 19:43:42 -0000

With the Oakland rebuilding firesale in full swing I think it makes sense for us to take a shot at getting Huston Street.

He's a legitmate shutdown closer and is under club control for the next 3 years. The only slight down side to him is the elbow injury he had last year that knocked him out for 6 weeks or so. He was extremely effective after coming back though so I'd personally disregard it.

I would of course be nervous about making any sort of deal with Beane, with him possibly being Marginally better at bargaining than Satan himself. But to get something this perfect for our 2008 team, I would definately pay a lot to help us win now. But after the Swisher deal I am not optimistic about prying a piece like Street away at a price that won't cause a major long term damage.

How much do you think Beane would demand? Do you think Shapiro would pay Beane's price?

Personally I don't know what it would cost but doubt Shapiro has the stomach for any sort of impact trade like this. We have been playing with notions like this all off season with Rios, Haren, Bay and others. Shapiro isn't going to make any sort of "win in 2008" move if it much impacts 2009+.

Minaya on shaky ground? We could capatalize...

KevinV — Mon, 03 Dec 2007 14:40:36 -0000

Ken Rosenthal said the following in his latest article:

Mets general manager Omar Minaya always takes a high-energy approach, but it would be understandable if he was even more motivated this off-season.

The pressure on him is growing.
Minaya, signed through 2009, has been thwarted in his attempts to land a contract extension, according to major league sources.

His job, in the wake of the Mets' late-season collapse, is less secure than it was a year ago, when the team was coming off an appearance in the NL Championship Series.

His recent trade of outfielder Lastings Milledge, 22, for catcher Brian Schneider, 31, and outfielder Ryan Church, 29, reflected the Mets' desire to satisfy short-term goals.

Minaya's principal objective this off-season is adding a top-of-the-rotation starter. It will be difficult for him, rival executives say, because the Mets' top prospects aren't as attractive as other clubs'.

Minaya has been the Mets' general manager since Sept. 2004.

I'm not too familiar with the Mets farm system, but this could be a good opportunity to replenish the farm system a bit.

BONUS
Cliff Lee is a former Expo. That fits in with Manaya's Expo fetish.

A $653,400,000 off season.

KevinV — Sun, 02 Dec 2007 01:36:36 -0000

This is purely speculative at this point. But based on the way things are going, this seems to be how things might fall out. The NYY could spend more or a little less, but this should be in the ballpark.

AROD: $280M/10 + $30M+ in HR boni.
Rivera: $45M/3
Possada: $52.4M/4
Petite: $16M/1
Santana: $150M/6
Rowand: $60M/5
Wang: $4M in arb (not sure about this one)
2 Relievers: $12/3 + $8/2 (guess)

That's $653,400,000. Yikes.

That should give them a $123.5M starting line up, complete with a $13M 4th outfielder.

That will go nicely with their relative bargain of a $56.4M starting rotation and $28M or so bullpen.

Add on another $4M or so for the rest of the bench and you are looking at a payroll of around:

$225,000,000

There's your NYY tradition.