SB Nation User Blog: King Richard

The Case for Daric Barton

King Richard — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 05:10:43 -0000

I'm back to continue my series of making the case for the future of various A's players with Daric Barton.

I'm going to warn my readers now that this will be a fairly math-involved fanpost, but I assure you, it is not to put off those who are wary of the old number, but rather to prove a point. Moreover, my data comes from before tonight in which Barton had quite a good game, getting on base a few times, and stroking a double.

This post will tie in as well to Nico's excellent luck/skill debate on BABIP on the front page.

Without further ado, I give you Daric Barton's rate stats from 2009 in 114 PAs.

BB: 14.3%

K: 17.7%

ISO: .156

BABIP: .237

Other useful information: Barton's career BABIP in the majors is: .278, and he has hit 3 HRs in 114 PAs so far this year.

Join me after the jump as I use these numbers to predict a full season of Daric Barton based on what appears to be his skill level right now.

For the purposes of this fanpost we are going to assume that these rate stats are indeed Barton's current ability level. Small sample size applies of course, but the numbers are not far from his career stats, they are in line with his minor league track record, and are for the most part not unreasonable.

I'm writing this fanpost for a few reasons, but the most prominent is that as I've watched Barton this year since being called back up I've been struck by how good he's looked at the plate. His pitch selection is excellent and he seems to be driving the ball well and making excellent contact. The basic stats have obviously not shown it, so I want to see what a full season of this, where his BABIP evens out, would look like.

So here we go:

A full season would contain roughly 600 PAs. With a 14.3% walk rate, this projects Barton to walk 86 times. This leaves 514 ABs (disregarding sacrifice flies, because I don't know how to project sacrifice fly rates and I forgot to try) coupled with a 17.7% K rate, giving him 91 Ks.

Barton has hit 3 HRs in 114 PAs so far, and for the sake of this study that will be extrapolated as HR/PA over the full season, for a 16 HR year.

Now we begin adjusting the stats with his BABIP. Barton's career BABIP is .278 and this is also the BABIP that ZIPS projects for him from here on out. With 514 ABs, -16 HRs, -91Ks, he has 407 ABs in which he puts the ball in play. Of these, 27.8% will fall for hits, giving him 113 non-HR hits. Add back in the 16 HRs and he has 129 hits in a full season. This would give him a .251 BA, with the BB rate, a .358 OBP, and with the ISO a .407 slugging %. This is a triple slash of .251/.358/.407. This is very reasonable, a .765 OPS which is OBP heavy which is good, making him a slightly above-average hitter.

I think this is a fairly reasonable estimate of his skill-set right now.

However, his career major league BABIP is very low. Now, it is possible it is just a skill that he doesn't have. But he has a minor-league track record of having relatively high BABIPs. So let's assume that as Barton gets more comfortable in the majors, his BABIP will rise to about the low end of major-league average at .290.

If 29% of his 407 ball-in-play ABs for fall hits, that gives him 118 non-HR hits, +16 HRs for a total of 134 hits and a .261 average. His OBP goes up to .367 (134 hits + 86BB / 600 PAs), and his slugging % goes up to .417, giving him a triple slash of .261/.367/.417 and an OPS of .784.

Thus with a conservative upgrade in BABIP to the low-end of league average, Barton become arguably the best hitter on the A's.

But let's go one further, just for the sake of analyzing Barton's potential, or maybe just because it's fun.

Barton's career BABIP in AAA is .305. Let's assume that eventually he settles into the majors and his BABIP reverts to his AAA career number. It's not unreasonably high at all, and in fact in 2007 Barton's BABIP was .324 in AAA. So I wouldn't call this a moonshot.

This BABIP gives him 124 non-HR hits, 140 total hits, a .272 BA, a .377 OBP, and a .428 slugging %. That's an OPS of .805, with his excellent first-base defense, making him a very good player right now, with just his current skill set and an optimistic but not over-the-top increase in BABIP.

So, A's front office. Give Daric Barton another chance next year. It's much too early to give up. Barton only just turned 24, he still has lots of room to improve, and with just a little bit of luck he could be a very good player right now.

I hope you've enjoyed the musings, and I hope Brett Wallace can stick at 3B so we don't have to decide between the two of them.

Rajai Davis — to be or not to be?

King Richard — Sat, 05 Sep 2009 00:00:10 -0000

I'm back to discuss another of our current outfielders, and once again to make the case for his extended reign over the green grasses of the Coliseum.

Yes, this has been discussed before. But it needs to be discussed again.

Here's the question: should Rajai Davis be the starting center fielder on the A's in 2010, and the deeper question, does Rajai Davis deserve to be a starter on a good team...? (Hopefully these questions will be one and the same because the A's will be a good contending team next year! Right...? hopefully...? I'm always optimistic)

Obviously, the reason I'm writing this fanpost is that I think the answer to both questions should be an unequivocal yes.

Join me after the jump for statistical evidence to back up my bold thesis!

According to Fangraphs, Rajai Davis has accrued 3.3 Wins Above Replacement so far this year, in 298 PA.

His defense has been worth 14.4 runs and his offense has been worth 8.3 runs. Plus, he plays centerfield, one of the hardest positions on the diamond.

3.3 WAR in 298 PAs! That's ridiculous. Over 600 PAs, which if healthy, a leadoff-style hitter like Rajai should get in a year, that is 6.6 WAR! Yes, you read that right. 6.6 WAR is very high. An average all-star will be worth about 4 WAR in a season. For some context, Evan Longoria this year, with his stats extrapolated over 600 PAs will be worth about 6 WAR. Yes, Rajai Davis has been arguably more valuable per PA this year than Evan Longoria, and he's no schmuck.

Now the obvious argument is that Rajai Davis cannot maintain this kind of production. This is an understandable argument, and one which I could personally go either way on. So in fact, assuming that Rajai Davis regresses to his 2007 stats between the Pirates and the Giants, let's take a look at his numbers from that year.

In 219 PAs in 2007, Rajai Davis was worth 1 WAR. This extrapolates to a 2.7 WAR full season. Not all-star worthy, but definitely above average, and cheap... But when one looks at Davis' numbers from 2007, something stands out. He was worth only 0.4 fielding runs. His range, according to UZR, was negative. This could be chalked up to small sample size, or it's quite possible that he has drastically improved his routes in the outfield since then, making him a plus-plus defender. Either way, if one is to assume that he won't lose his outfielding abilities, and plugs in his career outfield numbers, in his 379 innings from 2007, he would be worth 4.8 fielding runs. This adjustment makes his 2007 numbers (w/ altered fielding) worth about 1.4 WAR. Once again, over 600 PAs, Davis is worth about 3.8 WAR. A borderline all-star.

So really, the only question is: Is 2008 his real skill level? Because Rajai Davis was not a very good hitter in 2008. He was worth -6.8 offensive runs last year. Pretty bad. His defense, however, was worth 4.9 runs, and with the CF adjustment, he was still 0.6 wins above replacement in 2008. If his 226 PAs are extrapolated over the entire season, he would accrue roughly 1.6 WAR. Below average, but not terrible and still worth more than $7million on the free agent market.

So, as I see it, Rajai Davis in two of his three seasons as a major leaguer has been an all-star or better. In the other season, he was below average, but still a bargain. I personally think his true offensive skill level is probably more along the lines of his 2007, but it's possible that's not actually the case. His ISO has gradually gone up each year in the majors, and in his last year in AAA his offensive output was similar to this year's, with an even higher ISO.

So, AN, what do you think?

Does Raj Davis have what it takes?

The Case For Ryan Sweeney

King Richard — Sat, 01 Aug 2009 21:13:14 -0000

I am going to try to make the case that Ryan Sweeney could be the future of CF for the Oakland A's, an argument which, though of course debatable, I think is long overdue.

Let me first make clear that this is not a conclusion I had ever expected to come to. Since we first got Ryan Sweeney, I have felt that he was drastically overrated and just can't imagine him ever honing his swing so that those batting practice moon shots will happen during the game. I've always wanted Travis Buck given the shot over Sweeney in RF and think that those people who say "Sweeney is our best hitter!!!!111" are crazy...

Moreover, there has always been the thought that while Sweeney is a great RF, he is a subpar CF because of his bad routes taken to the ball.

But according to UZR, Sweeney has been an exceptional CF this year.

Now, UZR is known for its fluctuations in relatively small sample sizes, however it is also known for noticing and showing when players make improvements in their defensive skills and ability.

I think it is safe to say that Sweeney does indeed look much better in CF this year, obviously making the spectacular plays, but also he seems to be getting to balls he didn't get to last year.

UZR shows his range being worth 4.3 runs above average so far this year, up from -1.6 last year.

In total, 13.9 RAA / 150 games in CF, which rates him as one of the best defensive center fielders in the league.

Ryan Sweeney this year is on pace to be a roughly league average center fielder. Considering that he's cost controlled for a while longer, Sweeney is a valuable commodity in center field.

The point here is that what we really should be looking for in Sweeney's development is his continued progress on his defense in center field. Because as long as he keeps fielding like this, it doesn't matter whether he ever hits for power.

Brett Hunter Strikes Out 8 in 2.2 innings...

King Richard — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 07:00:33 -0000

Brett Hunter Strikes Out 8 in 2.2 innings...

This is the box score of the Kane County game from tonight.

Notice that Brett Hunter came in out of the bullpen and pitched 2 and 2/3rds, striking out 8, for every out he recorded...

His last outing he struck out 4 in 2 innings and also gave up no runs, so perhaps he's finally turned a corner...

Best Pitches of the Year

King Richard — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 06:29:58 -0000

Best Pitches of the Year

Continuing with my ongoing persuasion that Dallas Braden has more potential than anyone else will give him credit for...

This link, Baseball Analysts' Best Pitches of the Year So Far states that in fact, Dallas Braden's changeup has been the best changeup in baseball so far...

Just thought it was worth a look...

This is a fun little thing to look at also.

Dallas Braden: The Expectation Gap

King Richard — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 05:29:33 -0000

Dallas Braden, in my opinion, is going to be a star.

Before I go on to backup my opinion with controversial evidence, I would like to explain, for what it's worth, that I've held this belief since the very first time I saw Braden pitch in 2007 and am only using the opportunity of one of his most successful major league starts to espouse my optimistic projections, not merely jumping on his bandwagon after one good start.

Firstly, there seems to be absolutely no contingent of ANers, Scouts, Bloggers, or even fans who agrees with me. Even the most optimistic projections I've seen have claimed that Braden can be a good #3 starter.

Before the year started, there were a fair amount of people that believed Braden would eventually end up in the bullpen, and most figured that he didn't enter into the A's plans after 2010 with the affluence of young pitching about to break through.

So, why you ask, will Braden be a legitimate star major league pitcher, an ace in a major league rotation, a guy who can throw 200 innings with a sub-3 ERA?

For a few reasons. In the first place, he has excellent command. Often you hear about pitchers who "throw strikes," which is sometimes code for "well, he can get it over the plate, hopefully his movement will do the rest..." Braden does not simply throw it over the plate, Braden hits targets. He has all the way through the minors with impeccable BB/9 rates, and he has from his very first hitter who he struck out looking with a 3-2 fastball right on the inside corner.
In fact, one of the few balls that's been hit hard off of Braden so far this year, the Youkilis homerun, was on a fastball right on the inside corner. The pitch was with two strikes and was a bad call by Suzuki, as Braden had gotten two called fastball strikes on Youkilis in the at-bat, and he would have been dead on a changeup as he was in the sixth inning.

Next, Braden's changeup is one of the best pitches I've ever seen. A 15 mph difference (87.2-72.8 avg speeds, according to Fangraphs) is devastating, and Braden generates a ridiculous amount of swinging strikes on the pitch. In fact, he appears to use swinging strikes more to keep hitters off balance and later induce weak flyouts a la Justin Duchscherer rather than to generate strikeouts, a remarkably intelligent strategy which will ultimately help him limit his pitch count (like today) and go deep in ballgames. With the amount of swinging strikes that Braden gets, he easily has the ability to be a high strikeout pitcher, but it would be a waste of pitch count, and Braden isn't playing for the scouts or the projection systems, he's playing to win.

This is one of the reasons I think that Braden hasn't gotten the projections that he deserves. His minor league career is second to none. His K/9 numbers throughout the minor leagues were 15.43, 11.77, 5.40, 9.75, 10.41, 9.11, with the 5.40 being a single start in AA in 2006.

Dallas Braden has not just pitched well, but ultimately dominated every level he has reached, and he is showing no signs of letting up in the Major leagues, steadily improving, start by start.

I am not here to convince everyone that Dallas Braden will necessarily be a legitimate ace. But I am here to add that possibility to the conversation.

Too long have scouts written off players because of 87.2 mph average fastballs.

Dallas Braden reminds me a lot of Tom Glavine (though the similarities do not extend to personality), another lefty whose fastball averaged about 85mph throughout his career.
In fact, their minor league numbers are fairly similar:

Braden ERA: 3.30
Glavine ERA: 3.61
Braden H/9: 8.05
Glavine H/9: 8.31
Braden HR/9: 0.75
Glavine HR/9: 0.81
Braden K/9: 10.13
Glavine K/9: 6.08
Braden BB/9: 2.39
Glavine BB/9: 4.01

Again, I'm not saying that Braden will win over 300 games and be a probable hall of famer like Tom Glavine, but I'm saying that his fastball is faster, his minor league numbers are better, and there's no reason to write off an optimistic possibility.

Also, I really love Dallas Braden... he's fun to watch...

All those 2 game series...

King Richard — Fri, 04 May 2007 03:53:37 -0000

Every year, the schedule changes. Sometimes, from our perspective, this is good, sometimes it's bad. The people behind the scenes in the MLB keep working it and working it, in a seeming constant search for perfection. Interleague play, Bay Bridge Series, Unbalanced schedule... These are some different types of innovations that are used to try and, hopefully, achieve balance in all schedules.

However, one thing which is often overlooked by the casual refridgerator-magnet-peerer is the frequency of 4 game series, the frequency of 3 game series, and now 2 game series. I am a personal fan of the four game series, at which you can really feel like you have achieved something if you win, and even more so if you sweep. Still the three game series provides a thrill with the sweep, and a pleasant feeling of accomplishment with a 2 out of 3. But the 2 game series...
The 2 game series is a different matter. If you get swept, you've been swept. There's no concillation there. You've played a team, and you've lost.
A split then feels just indecisive. In a four game series, if you split, you can say to yourself, "well, I think we're pretty evenly matched teams", or "darn, it's too bad Harden was injured", but if you split a two game series, no conclusive results can be found whatsoever, except perhaps, "well, we'll see what happens when we play them more times"...
And then, there's the problem with sweeping a two game series. A sweep of a 2 game series? That's not even a winning streak. Sure, you beat the other team! All... 2 times.
My questions are these: Why have there been so many 2 game series so far in this 2007 season, and what does everybody else think of the Two Gamers?

Poll

What's the Best Amount of Games in a Series?

I used to be indecisive, but now I'm not so sure.

0 votes

1: Love those rainout make-up games.

0 votes

2: With only two games, people will think our offense just must be slumping.

3 votes

3: The good ol' 3 gamer.

35 votes

4: Gimme a good dose of them, and see what happens.

7 votes

5: I'm a Yankees fan.

1 votes

5: I'm insulted by your thinking that just because I like a good 5 game series, I'm a Yankees fan.

3 votes

49 votes | Poll has closed