In the last 20 years there have been 15 centers drafted in the first 5 picks.  It is fair to say that the sample group is a solid mixture of H-O-F players and total busts (pointing at you Candy Man).  Of the 15, there were 5 busts (Bradley, Battie, Candy Man, Shelden, Curry) and 2 look like they are headed that way (Oden and Thabeet), but it is way to early to write them off.  I would assume (and that’s a huge assumption) that based off DMC’s collegiate dominance that he will not fall into the group of 7 busts/potential busts.  Therefore I thought it would be interesting to see how the top 8 centers fared in there rookie season.  

1.    Shaquille O’neal

81 starts – 38 Min - 56 FG% - 23.4PPG – 13.8 REB – 1.9 AST – 3.5 BLK – 3.8TO

2.    Tim Duncan

82 starts – 39 Min – 55 FG% - 21.1 PPG – 11.9 REB – 2.7 AST – 2.5BLK -3.4TO

3.    Alonzo Mourning

78 starts – 34 Min – 51 FG% - 21 PPG – 10.3REB – 1 AST – 3.5 BLK – 3 TO

4.    Dikembe Mutombo

71 starts – 38 Min – 49 FG% - 16.6 PPG – 12.3 REB – 2.2AST – 3 BLK- 3.5TO

5.    Yao Ming

72 starts – 29 Min – 50 FG% - 13.5 PPG – 8.2 REB – 1.7 AST – 1.8 BLK – 2.1TO

6.    Dwight Howard

82 starts – 32.6 Min – 52FG% - 12 PPG – 10REB – .9 AST – 1.7BLK – 2 TO

7.    Al Horford

77 starts – 31.4 Min – 50 FG% - 10.1 PPG – 9.7 REB – 1.5 AST - .9 BLK – 1.7TO

8.    Andrew Bogut

77 starts – 28.6 Min – 53 FG% -9.4 PPG – 7 REB – 2.3 AST - .8 BLK – 1.5 TO

Based off the performances of these players DMC will have a very difficult time matching the numbers of the top 4 players, but  I feel that the numbers produced by the players in the 5-8  range are very attainable.

So here is my prediction on how DMC season will statistically look

Demarcus Cousins

55 starts – 28 Min – 53 FG% - 15 PPG – 9 REB – 1.5 AST – 1.5 BLK – 3.5 TO

A simple explanation of my predictions

55 Starts: The organization is excited about DMC, the fans are stoked off of him, and he is very talented.  This combination means that he should get a majority of the home starts.  Factoring in that most rookies hit a wall of some sort, I would not be surprised to see Dalembert and JT get roughly half of the road starts to help keep DMC fresh.  I just cant imagine that the Kings will be able to keep him out of the starting lineup if he plays to his potential.

28 Minutes:  This number is lower than the other top 5 picks for one main reason; other than TD, none of the top players had other big men to share minutes with.  As I see it, there are 96 minutes to be shared by DMC, JT, Landry, Dalembert, Brockman and Whiteside.  I see Whiteside and Brockman as being the odd men out, which means there will be 4 players seeing a majority of the minutes.  I cant see any one player getting the lions share of the minutes, which is why in year 1 I see DMC only playing about 28 minutes per.

53 FG%:  DMC has a variety of post moves, and has a very nice mid range shot.  With his playing style I don’t see why he wont have roughly the same % as every other legitamate starting center.  I didn’t want to put him in the same class as Duncan or Shaq, but I definitely feel that he is as offensively sound as Howard was in his Rookie year.

15 PPG:  Yao played 29 minutes per and averaged 13.5 points per game.  While he was successful, I can’t help but feel that the transition to American Basketball is part of the reason he didn’t average more points.  DMC is the epitome of American Basketball, and he will have no transition in terms of style.  15 points may be a little lower than most people are hoping for, but as you can see, above 15 ppg is H-O-F caliber numbers. 

9 Reb: DMC is a very good rebounder, but I think his transition to NBA rebounding will be a little rocky.  DMC has always been able to rely on his size advantage to secure rebounds at a high rate.  In the NBA, he will have to learn the tricks of the trade, and will have to work on his repetitive jumping skills if he wants to turn into an elite rebounder.  Given all of that, I still believe that in 28 minutes he will average 9 boards, and when he is playing 42 minutes I see no reason that he cant average 12-14.  But for year 1 I think he will hover right under 10 boards per game.

1.5 AST:  He is bound to see a few double teams, as soon as he learns to read and pass, he is bound to collect a few assists.  Until then, I’m sure he will make at least a few smart passes.  However Ill be the first to admit that he didn’t pass all that much in college.

1.5 BLK:  Demarcus is good at blocking shots, but he is not an elite shot blocker…YET.  1.5 per game is right under Dwight Howard, and is consistent with the other top flight centers not named SHAQ, ZO, Duncan, Mutumbo.

3.5 TO:  Adjusting to the NBA game is not easy, and most big men commit turnovers, especially early in there careers.  3.5 per 28 minutes is high, but hey, he is a rookie and he will have to adjust.

So what is the purpose of all of this hypothesizing?  Ever since Draft night I have read Fan posts about how good the Kings will be, and how great DMC will be.  I do not want to throw a wrench in the fun engine; I simply want to point out that the odds of DMC averaging Shaq like numbers are next to impossible.  There have been 4 great centers in the last 20 years and 4 very good centers.  Hopefully DMC and REKE can become the most feared inside otutside combo in the NBA, but it wont happen next year.  So lets all sit back, enjoy watching the Players develop, and hope that all of our wildest dreams come true.  Just don’t be bummed out that DMC is not averaging 23-12-3-3. The reality is 15-9 would be amazing, and would be a reason for all of us to be very excited. 

*On a side note, I have gulped up the punch and am going to summer league to see the Kings play against Detroit, LA, and the fighting Khans.

With every decision in life there are a bevy of intended and unintended outcomes.  The decision to move to the Big X (or whatever they are going to call it) will bring about many exciting new opportunities, but what else will the move bring?  I want to take a look at what I believe will be some of the unintended consequences, and I will start with the positive.

Bo Stays Forever

We will never lose Coach Bo to Ohio State, or LSU, or any other University.  I have always felt that the only job Coach would leave Nebraska for was Ohio St..  He is from Ohio, he loves Ohio, he has strong recruiting ties in the state, and he could carry on their tradition of excellence.  The biggest reason that I think he could leave is because they WILL pursue him once Tressel retires.  Now, I believe this point is moot.  I strongly believe that Bo will view OSU as his main competition on the field and on the recruiting trail.  I cannot believe that once he creates a rivalry, he would ever join the enemy.  Call me crazy but this move prevents our coach from moving.

Ohio Recruiting

Assuming the league has a rotating schedule, Nebraska will play Ohio State twice over a 4 -year period.  This is a major deal in terms of recruiting Ohio.  Secondly, now that we will be associated with the Big 10 network we will be seen regularly in Ohio.  So why is this so important, Ohio plainly put plays the 4th best H.S football in the Country.  With Major programs in Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus, Dayton, Youngstown, and Akron, the state is loaded with high caliber talent.  Couple that with Bo’s ties throughout the state, and you have a 2nd major recruiting power in the state.  This is a definite positive. 

New Rivalries

I never thought I would care about what the teams of the Big 10 did, but now we have some very natural rivalries, and some fabricated rivalries.  This excites me to no end.  To think about watching Our Huskers play in the big house, in happy valley, or at the horseshoe makes me so happy.  It will be awesome for the program, and I truly believe that playing in front of 110k people will only spread the value of our program across America.  It’s amazing to think that in a few years, we could be playing against OSU for the right to go to a National Championship.  I am more then ready to ignore the burnt orange, good riddance and good-bye (and now we can play them for the Big Trophy at the end of the season).

The Media

Its fair to say that the Media is enamored with UT football, and whenever Mizzou wins 4 straight at the start of the season they will have a top 10 ranking.  Meanwhile Nebraska has to scrap for every bit of Media exposure.  If Nebraska has the season that we all expect them to have this upcoming season, the will enter the first year of Big ten play as a top 5-7 team.  We will have all American candidates in Burkhead, and many other players up and down both lines, and at every position on the defensive side of the ball.  What does this all add up too?  In my opinion a perfect big red storm, Opening Season of Big X play+ Top 7 ranking+ All American Candidates= Media love affair, and great exposure, which all adds up to Nebraska being a media darling in the 2012 season

Super Conference Stampede

Nebraska has started the stampede and bailed out on a struggling Big 12.  I know that the term bailed is not completely accurate, however its close to the truth.  But in reality, they are the first domino to fall, soon enough 6 teams will join the PAC 10, 4 more teams will join the Big 10, the ACC will get raided.  If Nebraska had failed to align themselves with the Big 10, they would have been stuck in Limbo as the other schools left.  The school did the right thing, today we are in a position of power, if we wait we lose our power.  As far as I’m concerned, The move is awesome, and I cant wait until there are 4 or 5 super conferences.

The negative unintended consequences are worth looking at also.

Losing the fertile Texas recruiting pipeline

 Lets face it, while we will gain a larger foothold in Ohio, we will definitely miss out on many of Texas’s better players.  For the most part, Kids like to play somewhat close to home, and often time’s dream of playing for their state school.  Nebraska was however quite successful in Texas due to the fact that they played up to 3 games per year in Texas.  We will still have mild success in Texas but I believe that with no likely games in the Lone star state, and Texas being in a conference with USC, ASU, ARIZ, CAL, and UCLA, there will be very few recruits escaping the PAC 16 area.

Losing the CA pipeline

I have the same basic theory on kids in California as I do from Texas.  The goal of every school is to put up a wall around their state, and conferences attempt to do the same with kids in their region, The new PAC 16 will encompass CA, OR, WA, AZ, TX, OK, NM.  I find it hard to believe that these schools will let kids from the region have a chance to get out of there grasps.  USC has never been great at recruiting Texas, but they will become very good in the near future, and the opposite can be said about Texas.

Current Rivals

Enjoy one last go around, because we will not see some of our rivals for a very Iong time. Hopefully we can face them (OKLA, TEX, …) in the future .

Playing in the old big 10

There is no denying that the Big 10 is down.  There were two 1-7 teams, a 2-6, a 3-5 and two 4-4 teams.  It’s been 8 years since a Big 10 team has won the BCS title (OSU).  Michigan is down, and appears to be in turmoil.  At this point I would only consider PSU, OSU, Wisc, and Iowa to be quality programs.  A friend of mine told me he figured Nebraska would own the new conference. When I questioned him as to why, he responded by saying, “ You guys play fast, and they play slow”.  I would have to agree with him, The Big 10 is known for playing slow football, that is a return to yester year.  While some of you may long for three yards and a cloud of dust, that era is dead.  So why is this a problem, Nebraska will suffer from being in the third slowest conference in football, and the pundits/ voters will knock them.  Playing in the Big 10 (even with the addition of Nebraska, Mizzou, Rutgers, Notre Dame, and Iowa State, to make it a 16 team conference), will have us playing in the third worst Conference in terms of speed, rankings, and talent.

(Jon J: Bumped up from the fanposts, something not on conference expansion!) 

Coach Bo and the rest of the staff have done a masterful job closing recruits this offseason.  This clearly has a lot to do with the National Exposure we have received over the last year, but I also believe it is because the Staff has done a wonderful job identifying players that fit the Nebraska mold.  The last coach (I wont mention his name), went after players that weren’t Nebraska players, he just went after highly touted recruits.  I’m definitely thankful that he signed Big Suh, and I’m happy with a few of the other players that he signed, but more or less he didn’t sign players that loved the N. 

Continue reading this post »

Corn Nation,

Im a new member to this site an I cant help but wonder why all the talk is about hypothetical conference changing.  I am aware that there is concern about conference realignment, however the Big Red are having their best recruiting year under Bo, and nobody is mentioning it.  In the last month, the Huskers have gained verbal commitments from 3 players, and between ESPN and Rivals rankings, the Huskers have six 4-star players already (8 last year).  I know that there is concern about what the outcome of the great conference realignment will be.  Trust Dr. Osborne,  he will make the right decision.  Today it is time to relish in the players that are coming to N,  developing at N, and that are starting at N.   

As I wrote in my previous article "mOck Draft overdose", I am not a fan of MD’s and I don’t want to participate in the exercise.  So instead I will throw my uneducated, misguided, and ridiculous draft board into the circle.  The rankings I have are not new, u can see them in the articles that I have written previously.  So without further ado, my first ever

MOST POINTLESS DRAFT BOARD EVER 2010 EDITION

1.     Evan Turner:  IMO, ET is the perfect compliment to TE (its perfect symmetry for crying out loud), therefore he is on the top of my draft Board.  Evan Turner would be able to step in and start at the 2 for the next 7-10 years.  Evan Turner has numerous plusses to his game.  He shoots at a high percentage (58 TS%), he rebounds well for his position, he plays defense at a high level, and he is tough as nails.  The most important factor to me is that he doesn’t need the ball to be good.  This allows Reke to continue to run the offense. His weaknesses are that he turned the ball over a lot last year, and he is not a certified 3 point threat.  Beyond that they only other factor that I see, is that he may be close to having reached his ceiling as a player.. I like Turner a lot, and it’s to bad we will probably never get to see an Evans-Turner-Casspi trio.  While Wall may be the better player, I think Turner would fit better with the Kings.  And while I am a huge Favors Fan he is a bit raw and may never reach his full potential.

2.     With that said my 2nd player is Derrick Favors.  I love his potential, I love his attitude, and I love his work ethic.  It is not out of the realm of possibility that we could be dealing with the next Dwight Howard.  If it weren’t for his limited offensive skill set, I would definitely have ranked him #1.  I have written about Favors in previous posts so I will end with this.  Favors would not start for us next year, and may not start for 2 years.  This is not what I want from a top 5 pick, and while he may develop into Superman, I don’t see him doing that in a Kings uniform.  I truly believe he will develop into a beast playing along side Lopez in NJ, or playing with Iggy and Jrue in Philly.  Both places have huge needs at the PF position.  The reality of it is, the Kings have a good PF and a good C.  We want upgrades at both, we don’t need either.

3.     John Wall:  He is really good, and he may be the next whatever, but I don’t really want him in a Kings uniform.  He needs the ball, wants the ball, and believes that he is more suited to lead than any other player on the court.  These qualities are good if you don’t already have Reke, but we do, so Wall can go to the Bullets, and have a blast.  I would not want to move Reke to the 2, and I would not want to spend two straight top 5 picks on PG’s like the T-wolves did (GP> Khan). 

4.     Greg Monroe:  I know what I know, and I know nothing.  But what I have seen in Monroe is a player who is a solid basketball player in almost every facet of the game.  Monroe has no glaring weakness, and the areas in which he is lacking; he is more than able to improve.  His lateral quickness is not great, and he is considered un-athletic.  I would tend to believe that the reason he is given this label is because the style of offense he plays in is rather slow paced.  He is not asked to display a high level of athleticism, he is asked to show a high IQ and an ability to execute.  More of my feelings about Monroe can be found in my previous posts.  I would be very happy if the kings were able to land Monroe

5.     Demarcus Cousins:  If he cared as much about basketball as he did eating, he would be on top of this draft board.  But he doesn’t, so he has to drop to number 5.  Should the Kings select Cousins, I would happily eat my words, but the chances are, he will have eaten those too.  If you want to know more about my feelings on the Monroe vs. Cousins debate refer to my past post on the issue.

6.     Donatas Motiejunas:  Im not going to pretend to know anything about this kid.  I will simply say that he looks like a stud, and he could be an amazing addition to this roster.  Here are a couple links if you would like to read more about this 7-0 tall 19 year old (wont turn 20 till September).

http://www.nbadraft.net/players/donatas-motiejunas

http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/chicago-bulls-confidential/2010/05/2010-donatas-motiejunas-draft-profile.html

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Donatas-Motiejunas-1300/

7.     Wes Johnson:  I don’t want to take a undersized 3, and I don’t think he will be the type of player that can move to the 2 and succeed at the NBA level.  I think that he is a lot like Turner in that he has come close to maxing out his potential. The biggest reason that I don’t want Wes is because we have Casspi and Greene and I see no point in drafting a third cog in the SF rotation.

8.     Pattrick Patterson:  Patrick is the most NBA ready PF in this draft IMO.  He is an undersized PF, but he scores with ease, has an NBA body and has an NBA game.  He could come in an play every back up minute behind Landry and would provide consistent play at both ends.  While he would never be a teams first or second option, he would provide us insurance should Landry leave, and could definitely be a team’s 3rd or 4th option.

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The Mock Draft is a pundit’s favorite moment to discuss absolutely nothing.  We have the Mel Kiper’s, Chad Ford’s, and Keith Law’s of the world; we also have numerous blogs, websites, and forums in which amateur prognosticators predict away.  The reason that this exercise is so favorable is because there is no penalty for being wrong, however there is no reward for being right.  This year we will all read a bevy of mock drafts, and they will all predict whom the Kings will take with the 5th pick.  The humor in any Mock draft is that every author believes that they are completely justified in their picks.  Whether I write a MD or Chad Ford writes one, neither one of us truly have any clue whom one team or another is going to pick (especially in the 2nd rd.).  This year the players that the Kings are projected to take with the 5th pick range from Al-Farouq Aminu, DeMarcus Cousins, Wes Johnson, and Greg Monroe.  I can see the logic in taking any one of these players, but there is no skill in stating that the Kings will take one of these players.  With the 33rd pick the MD’s have named numerous players as possible candidates for this slot.  But how do they have any clue?  Every pick is dependent on the outcome of every pick previously made; therefore to attempt a 2 round mock is completely pointless.  I wont knock the system unless I have a proposal for fixing it.  I propose that pundits (amateur/paid) stick to simply writing about the players and how they could fit in with a team.  So for instance:

DeMarcus Cousins

Draft Range: 2-6

Strengths: He has a lot of them

Weaknesses: He has a few of them

How he fits in with:

1)   Philly: He’s much better than Dalembert….

2)   Nets: He does not fit well unless he can switch to PF… Not a probable pick…

3)   T-Wolves: Would fill a starters role if he could outplay Love. Darko Started, so could Cousins…

4)   Kings:  You get

5)   Warriors:  The picture

This style of forecasting is much more accurate, and is also more reliable.  There is no point in reading an updated mock draft, when in reality there is no update.  A guy that jumps out of the gym, or a guy that shoots the lights out, may move up the board into a different range, but to update that a rising prospect is going to go to a specific team based on a workout or an interview is preposterous.  At the end of the day I understand why people write and read MD’s, however I beg of the Sports Writing Community, to stop pretending that you know anything about who is getting drafted where.  The only pick that is apparently certain is J. Wall, unless he gets hurt in a work out, or has a 400lb. skeleton fall out of his closet.  The Draft is not predictable, so we should elevate our expectations and ask for better reporting and less crap.  I will now step off of my soapbox, pull out a piece of soap, and wash my hands of the situation.

StR,

After posting that I thought Landry could be replaced, I found out very quickly that a majority of StR supported Landry and was more than impressed with his potential and current skill level.  I guess my question is; do you all think Landry will resign with the Kings or will he test the free agent market?

The second question I have is: What level contract can Landry expect should he test the open market?

Carl Landry stat profile:  All stat rankings are for Pf’s who played 30+ MPG (23 total)

52%FG (49.2 Avg)

2nd amongst PF in FG% at the Rim 70.1 % (Avg 63%), 14th when assisted 54.2 % (Avg 56.6%)

20th in FG% <10 Feet 30.4% (Avg. 45%), and is 17th when assisted 41.2%(Avg 46.1%)

1st in FG% from 10-15 Feet 49% (Avg. 41%), and 15th when assisted 45.8% (Avg. 49.4)

8th in FG% from 16-23 Feet 44% (Avg. 41.2%), and 18th when assisted

12th in Offensive Rebounds 2.4 (Avg= 2.5)

21st in Defensive Rebounds 4.1 (Avg = 6.3)

20th in total Rebounds 6.5 (Avg = 8.8)

22nd in assists, 22nd in assists that lead to 3’s…Only 5.0 of his possessions end up in an assist (23rd out of 24 players).   0.9 assists per game (2.1 avg)

7th in lowest Turnover rate %

Defense Rating: 1.64 (PF Average= 1.97)

With the future of the Kings hanging greatly on the outcome of this draft, I wanted to make sure that Carl Landry was replaceable.  In 28 games Carl Landry was by far the best frontcourt player on the Kings.  Unfortunately for him, and us this isn’t really saying much.  With all the talk of whether Favors could take minutes from Landry, I figured I should research Landry’s true impact on the court.  Landry averaged 37.5 minutes with the Kings.  In those 37.5 minutes Landry averaged 18 points and 6.5 boards. As a Kings Fan I was happy to have a reliable frontcourt scorer.   A closer look into Landry’s stats point to a player who is

A) Excellent finishing at the rim

B) Horrible from within 10 feet but not at the rim

C) Great from 10-15 feet, and above average from 16-23 feet. 

The problem with Landry’s offense is that he is a below average scorer off of an assist.  This basically means the offense stops when it gets in his hands.  This is acceptable when he is at the rim, however if he is hanging around 10-15 feet and dribbling to get his shot, this is a problem. I understand that he is the best PF in the NBA at this range, but he can’t help on the boards from 10-15 feet. I just believe that there is no real need to have a PF shooting from that range unless its within the offense and coming off of a pass (such as a pick and roll).   Landry is a talented player, and can score with the best of them, but that is it.  He does not pass (0.9 per) contributing to only 5% of his possessions ending up in an assist (2nd worst).  The other shortcoming in Landry’s game is his rebounding.  Landry is an average offensive rebounder and a piss poor defensive rebounder. 

On defense Landry is a below average defender and rarely provides an impact on the defensive end.  He is a below average shot blocker, doesn’t take charges, and rarely strips the ball from opponents. 

The Breakdown

Scoring: Landry

Around the Rim: Equal

Landry averaged 4.9 attempts at the rim and converted 3.4 attempts.  This led to a 70.1% percentage at the rim.  In his rookie year he averaged 72%, with this said I would believe that the more athletic Favors could average similar around the Rim numbers.  3.4 makes equals 6.8 points per game, this accounts for a little more than a third of his points per game.

Landry: 7 points per                        Favors: 7 points per

<10 Feet: Equal, only because Landry is a 30% shooter from this range

Landry only attempts 2 shots per game from this range and makes 0.6 per game.  This is not a place on the floor that he should be shooting from.  From what I have read on Favors this area of the floor is not exactly kind, but he is showing good improvement.

Landry 1.2 points per            Favors: 2 points

10-15 feet: Landry

A capable shooter from this range, who is getting better with every passing season.  This is no mans land for Favors at this point in his career.  In a few years it may be in his repertoire, but as of right now, Landry is the much more polished shooter

Landry 1.8 points per            Favors: 0

16-23 feet: Landry

This area could best be described as Landry’s favorite spot on the floor.  Making an average of 2.1 shots (out of 4.8) per game in this range, Landry has proven himself a capable mid range threat.  Once again Favors is not ready to make shots consistently from this range.

Landry 4.2 points per            Favors: 0

Rebounding: Favors

As Section 214 pointed out there have only been 12 rookies to exceed 6 boards per game in the last 5 years.  It is not far fetched to believe that given the minutes, Favors could join this list.  With that said Landry is only averaging 6.5 boards per game.   Landry was not a good rebounder in college either; in fact he never averaged more than 7.3 as a amateur.  In my opinion the Kings would be gaining on the boards with Favors

Passing: Equal

Neither one of them pass!

Blocks: Favors

Favors is the obvious choice here.  Landry has never averaged 1 block per game in his career.  Favors is a natural shot blocker, and once he catches on to the speed of the game, he could be devastating (See last 10 games of last season).

Defense: Push

Landry simply put, barely plays defense.  He is the 8th worst defensive PF in the west, which does not bode well for us on a nightly basis.  With that said, the NBA is not easy and young players often struggle to pick up the finer points of defense for at least a couple seasons.  However, it is not out of the realm of possibility that Favors is able to use his natural athletic abilities (i.e. Josh Smith, Dwight Howard) to block shots at a decent rate.  The reason it’s a push is because Favors has always played good interior defense and Landry has not.  It should be close

Overall: Landry by a bit

Landry is a much more polished scorer than Favors, but in my eyes that is about it.  In fact, the polish really only shines when he steps away from the basket.  Basically I see us taking 7 points of the board by putting in Favors ahead of Landry.  However, I do believe that with a 1 block per game, and possibly a couple extra rebounds, the loss of those points will be mostly offset.  While Landry is the better player today, he is not so much better that we should fear starting Favors as a rookie.

If we get pick #3, I want us to take Derrick Favors.  I have taken some time and looked at his stats, and have watched probably 6 of his games, and I have come to a few conclusions, and offer a few comparisons.  Derrick Favors is arguably one of the best athletes to ever run up and down a basketball court.  Favors stands 6-9 and weighs roughly 250lbs, yet has a vertical upwards of 35 inches and have read that he has a 44-inch vertical, either way it is impressive.   When I first saw him I had flashbacks of Shawn Kemp, but I don’t think that comparison is completely accurate.  GTECH’s website claims that Favors has a 9-1 standing vertical, and his Wingspan is 7-2.  Basically, Favors is a athletic freak who happens to also play basketball.

Offensively Favors was limited by teammates on the College level, and was limited numbers wise by playing in a crowded frontcourt.  However Favors more than produced in the limited chances he was provided.  On the season Favors averaged an eye popping 61% from the floor and had an incredible 1.53PPS.  While he only averaged 12.4 points it is fair to say that he capitalized on his few opportunities.  On the offensive end his game is played above the rim for the most part, however he does posses a decent jump shot, and has the ability to make a few post moves.  Another aspect Favors provides on the offensive end is his ability to rebound.  Last year at GT he averaged 3.0 oreb per contest, and with his athletic ability, most of those O-reb end up in the basket. The one area that Derrick has to improve upon is his court vision and passing.  Like Demarcus Cousins, Derrick is a bit of a black hole on the offensive end; once you pass it in, there is no getting it back. 

Defensively Favors is competitor who can play good man to man defense as well as rotate away and block or alter shots.  He is not a great defensive rebounder, however he has all the tools to become one.  Favors is also quite skilled at blocking shots.  He averaged 5 per game as a senior in H.S. and 2.1 in his lone year at GT (over his final 10 games he increased his average to 2.5 and had games of 4-4-5 consecutively).   As the season wore on Favors was able to learn to limit his fouls and was able to stay on the court and become GT’s best player over their final 10 games.

The player that Favors reminds me of the most is Blake Griffin (the freshman version).  As a freshman, Blake and Derrick’s numbers are very similar.  I would be willing to bet that if Favors were to return to GT he would have very similar numbers to those of Blake in his Soph. year. If that were to be the case then we would be getting a #1 quality pick at slot #3

The aspect that I like most about Favors is his attitude.  I have never read a bad thing about him.  Every coach starting with his AAU and Jr. High rave about his ability and willingness to learn.  As one of the youngest players in the draft (10 months younger than Wall) he still has room to grow in size, maturity, and skill level.  While I don’t know Favors, it seems that he is a very grounded player, and one that might actually stay with the organization that drafts him.  

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There are numerous plus sides to drafting Cousins.  Cousins brings a rather advanced post game for someone of his age. He boasts a decent array of post moves, but more than anything he benefits from his massive frame.  At 6-11 and 270lbs, he is already bigger and more powerful than just about any player in the league.  A possible combination of Cousins and Landry is very intriguing.  The combination of the two could very easily combine for 36 ppg and 20 boards.  Cousins is a great rebounder, which would make up for Landry, and between the two, they would have one of the better low post repertoires in the game.  I also really like the possible inside outside two-man game Cousins and Reke could play.  Cousins is also big enough and talented enough to draw numerous double teams which would give us two players capable of drawing doubles, which would create a lot more open looks for the role players.  As one GM was quoted as saying “"Even if the guy is going half-assed, he's still got more upside than most of the players in the draft." (http://www.libertyballers.com/2010/5/5/1458650/sixers-draft-profiles-demarcus). Cousins would clearly upgrade our front court, and would be a instant threat on the offensive end of the court.

There are however some huge red flags in his game.  Over the next few weeks you will hear that per 40 min., Cousins is one of the most dominating college players ever.  There is one huge flaw in the way the information is presented, The main reason he didn’t play more minutes (he played 23.5per) is because he was constantly in foul trouble. Cousins racked up 122 fouls in 38 games.  While he only fouled out of 2 games, he was often forced to sit because of foul trouble throughout the game. In comparison to other top big men, Greg Monroe had 87 fouls and averaged 34.9 min, Cole Aldrich had 92 fouls and averaged 26.8 minutes.  Even the big time shot blockers Jarvis Varnado (88 fouls/ 31.7min) and Hassan Whiteside (82 fouls/ 26.1 min) were able to avoid the foul troubles experienced by Cousins.  This suggests a few possible explanations, 1) He is a little slow vertically and laterally causing him to reach, 2) He relies on his athletic ability instead of using Fundamentals 3) He doesn’t care enough to try on the defensive end.  .  We already have 1 hacking monster in the middle (JT stand on up), do we really want 2?  I can see it now, Cousins and Thompson manning the middle and the opposing players thinking, I’m headed straight to the lane and getting hacked. Or even worse, we start Cousins and Landry, Cousins picks up two quick fouls, Thompson is subbed in and proceeds to pick up his quick two and suddenly the Kings have HAWES…never mind you see where this is going.   All of that is obviously worse case scenario, but it is worth thinking about. One last knock that I have on Cousins then I will be done.  Once the ball gets passed to him, he does not look for open men.  Of his 38 games last season, he had 16 games with no assists and 12 with only one.  If he had been on a crappy team with no shooters, I could understand his selfishness, but he was on Kentucky.  So there is no excuse.

In talking with my friend we decided he reminded us so much of Zach Randolph its scary.  Randolph has size, skills, and is a 20-10 guy when his head is right.  That’s what we see in Cousins…and unfortunately, like Randolph we both think that he will bounce around the League and finally land somewhere and finish up his talented but underachieving career.  With that said, a 20-10 guy would be great, but I just feel like he would not be all that great for the Kings in the long term.  And I believe that the only way we keep Tyreke is if we get another young superstar who wants to be in Sacramento. 

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Jarvis Varnado MISS ST.  PF 6-9 230lbs, 7-4 wingspan

2006-07 13.5min – 5ppg – 4.2reb – 1.9blk

2007-08 28.5min – 7.9ppg – 7.8reb – 4.6blk

2008-09 28.1min – 12.9ppg – 8.8reb – 4.7blk

2009-10 31.7min – 13.8ppg – 10.3 – 4.7blk

Jarvis is as good as it gets when it comes to shot blocking in NCAA history.  Averaging 4.7 blocks per game is not only impressive it’s almost comical.  After being named the SEC defensive player of the year three times and winning the national defensive player of the year award, it should be clear that the one thing Varnando can do is play defense.  Surprisingly Varnando’s defense is actually a bit of a question.  While he has an uncanny ability to block and redirect shots, Draft Express states that he “ still underwhelms at times as a man-to-man defender, particularly with his ability to step outside of the paint, something he needs to improve upon significantly before he is considered to be anything more than a marginal NBA role-player. (DX)  While I am quite certain that Varnado possesses the tools to become a solid defender at the NBA level, I’m not quite sure if he wants to put in the commitment.  It goes back to my theory that if a player has not shown a true desire to get better in college, then why would they do it in the pros.

On offense Varnado is exactly what you would expect from a player with his size and abilities.  He is a monster around the boards especially on the offensive end (3 per) and is quite skilled at putting those boards right back in the bucket.  Most reports that I have read indicate that beyond the paint, Varnado is unable to do anything offensively.  Scouting reports indicate that he has one decent post move, and that is it.

I would be interested in bringing Varnado into this organization for two reasons.  The first reason; he would be a hell of a practice player.  The second reason is, he has potential to be a Chris Anderson type of player in a few years.  At the end of the day, I don’t think Varnado is ever going to be a devastating shot blocker in the NBA, but he could be a good spark off the bench, and he can definitely provide 6 hard fouls.

Jordan Crawford So. Xavier SG 6-4 195

2007-08 Indiana: 25.3min – 9.7ppg – 3.4reb – 2.3ast – 44%FG - 37%3Pt - 1.2pps

2008-09 Transfer: Sat out

2009-10 Xavier: 32.8min – 20.5ppg – 4.7reb – 2.9ast – 46%FG – 39%3pt – 1.28pps

Jordan Crawford would be best served to stay in School, enjoy dominating his team and the ball, and get a degree.  While nobody questions his ability to score points in bunches, most everybody questions what he will be able to do on the next level.  Most scouting reports read something like this: Must have ball in his hands to dominate, without the ball he fails to impact the offense in any positive way.  This does not bode well for him at the next level.  Aside from the scouting reports his stats point to a very selfish player.  While he did average 20.5 ppg,  it took him close to 16 shots to get this total.  That is an average of 1.28pps.  In comparison James Anderson from OSU averaged 1.29 as a Frosh and 1.49 as a JR..  Elliot Williams(so.) from Memphis averaged 1.57pps. this year.   Basically, Crawford is a ball hog.  He would be strictly a SG in the NBA and at 6’4, I doubt if he will be able to create his own shot.  He has also shown that he is not a role player who can operate without the ball.   I really don’t see him making a successful jump to the NBA.   Crawford will have to learn to be a role player, and he also has to learn that he is not a superstar, he is simply a good ball player.  Unfortunately I doubt he will figure this out. With all the hype he has created, I would advise him to return to School and then go overseas as the guy who dunked on Lebron. 

Willie Warren OKLA 6-4 PG/SG So

2008-09: 31.3 min - 14.6ppg – 2.2rpg – 3.1 APG – 47%FG – 37%3P

2009-10: 32.3 min – 16.3 – 3.3 – 4.1- 43% - 31%

Willie Warren has shown first round talent over his first two years in Norman.  Willie Warren has also regressed as a player, and at this point coupled with his off court problems, I don’t see him anywhere close to being in a Kings Uniform.  If your FG% and your 3pt% goes down and your turnovers almost double in just one season that is not a good indication of your work ethic or basketball IQ.  The main reason that I don’t think that the Kings will look at him is his attitude.  He was benched last year, and the rumors circulating in the Oklahoma Sports Blog sites are that OKLA was going to take away his scholarship for next season.  The reason for taking his scholarship was he quit on his team.  The Maloofs would never bring in a guard that would not mesh with Tyreke and could ultimately ruin what appears to be a healthy locker room

Gani Lawai GT 6-9 234 PF Jr. (7’0 Wingspan)

2007-08 17.3 min – 7.2ppg – 3.5reb – 1bpg – 57%FG

2008-09 29.6 min – 15.1ppg – 9.5reb – 1.5bpg – 56%

2009-10 25.8 min – 13.1ppg – 8.5reb – 1.4bpg- 53%

Gani Lawai is an interesting prospect that the Kings may be lucky enough to have drop to them.  A borderline 1st rounder for the last 2 years, Lawai has finally opted to stay in this years draft (as of 5/6).  Lawai basically brings what we were are attempting to find in a Brockman/ Dorsey type of player.  While Brockman had an impressive year considering his draft position, I just don’t see him as a viable backup in this league.  Lawai is the same height as Dorsey (25lbs lighter) but possesses a much better offensive skill set, and is basically equal on the defensive end.  What I really liked about Lawai was his willingness to return to school and be part of one of the most crowded front Courts in the NCAA.  4 out of 5 of GTECH’s top players were forwards led by Derrick Favors; this did not prevent Lawai from leading the team in Scoring, and Rebounding.  Another good sign is that Lawai has increased his FG% from 46.7 to 54.9 in back to the basket situations (Draft Express).  NBA Draft Net states " Offensively, his game is based on his strength under the basket with put-backs, rebounds and hook shoots (shows solid touch with his right hand) and he does a great job at holding down his position ... Good finisher around the rim.  The Kings need a big man that wants to be a big man.  Lawai has shown a willingness to play in the post, play alongside superstars, and guard whomever comes his way.  While teams are not built on second round picks, Solid bench play usually comes from players that come from the late first and early second round.  This pick would be bad for the Brockness Monster, but good for the Kings

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While the most intriguing topic is definitely what we will do with our top 6 pick, it is also important to look at what we may be able to do with our second pick.  With the 33rd pick the Kings will have a plethora of options to help improve our team.  Over the next week or so, Ill discuss about 10 players that may fall to us at 33.

Eric Bledsoe UK 6’1 195lbs PG FR.

11.3 PPG – 2.9 AST – 3.1 REB- 1.4 SPG

 Playing alongside John Wall in an unfamiliar position is the main reason that Bledsoe will not be a 1st rounder in my opinion.  While talented enough to play in the NBA, he has not had a chance to show his abilities to run the offense except on rare occasion.  In the first game of the year (Wall sat due to suspension) Bledsoe logged a 24-point -7-rebound- 4-assist game.  Granted it was against Morehead St., but it was also his first college game.  His best point totals were 24, 23, 25, and 29.  Bledsoe would only be a possibility if we draft a big man with our first pick.  Beno would continue to start, however Bledsoe would provide great 3 point shooting (39%) and solid shooting (46%) off the bench, as well as provide solid PG play off the bench.  According DX "Freshman point guard blessed with rare athletic gifts ... Combines great length with tremendous explosiveness ... Has a lightning quick first step that makes him almost impossible to stay in front of "

Best Case: Nick Van Exel minus the attitude

Worst Case: Mike Conley 

Solomon Alabi FSU 7’1 251 C Jr.

11.7 PPG – 6.2 REB - 2.3 BPG

Alabi is one of the ultimate low risk boom or bust picks in this years draft.  It appears that due to the abundance of quality big men in this year’s draft that Alabi will slip to the bottom of the 1st round or the top of the second.    Alabi has improved his offense and defense every year, however he is far from polished.  His best Scoring Games were 21, 22, and 22.  His best Rebounding games were 10, 12, 10, and 10.  This is the area that scares me, for a man that is 7-1 and 250, he should be grabbing up boards with a vengeance at the college level.  However with that said, he has grabbed more boards every year and has also learned how to help alter shots when he is unable to actually get the block.  I would take him and see if he develops, but I would prefer trading back into the first round for Daniel Orton

Best Case:  Brendan Haywood

Worst Case: Kwame Brown

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Turner:   6-7 210lbs.

10/ 31 games scored 25+ (32- season high twice)

17 /31 games 10+ rebounds (17- season high twice)

7/31 games with 8+ assists (11- season high)

Stats: 20.4 PPG- 9.2 REB-6 AST-1.7 STL

FG%: 52- FT%: 76- 3pt%: 36

Stats against top competition

1/12 @ Purdue:  40min, 32-9-3

1/23 @ W. VA:  40 min, 18-11-4

2/21 @ Mich. St.:  40 min, 20-10-6

2/17 vs. Purdue:  40min, 29-7-5

3/21 vs. GTECH:  40min 24-9-9

3/26 vs. Tenn.:  40min 31-7-5

Evan turner is possibly one of the most intriguing prospects to come down the pipe in a long time.  It wouldn’t be a mistake to call him a PG; however calling him a PG is not giving him his credit as a small forward.   When Turner took over the PG spot this year in Thad Matta’s offense, nobody truly knew what to expect.  There were high expectations for him as a basketball talent; however, nobody could have imagined the incredible leap he took. Averaging fewer minutes than as a sophomore, Turner was able to average more points/ rebounds/ assists.  Most importantly Turner showed that he could play 3 positions at a very high level.  Turner passes the ball and sees the floor well enough to play point, he shoots the 3 and has a good enough jump shot to play the 2, and his best position arguably is small forward.  More importantly, he can guard all three positions at an above average level.

How Evan Turner helps the kings next year

Evan Turner would step in right away and start at one of the guard positions and contribute in many combinations of lineups.

SF: Omri Casspi/ Turner / Greene

G: Evan Turner/ Evans/ Beno

G: Tyreke Evans/ Turner/ Beno

Drafting Turner would give the Kings 2 combo guards that are both capable of dominating on or off the ball.  It would also give the kings 2 players in their backcourt that could defend using both length and strength.  It would also give the kings arguably the best rebounding backcourt in the NBA. Drafting Turner would also allow Beno to come off the bench and log about 20 minutes per and the floor leader of the second unit.  As well as he played after the trade; the combo didn’t bring much success.  I think he could be an instant offense type player and help a major area of weakness  (bench play and 2nd unit leadership).  This move is also a form of insurance in case Casspi or Greene doesn’t pan out.  Drafting Turner also prevents the kings from gambling on a player that has to fit in at one position. The fact that Turner plays 3 positions would also give the kings an unprecedented level of freedom in the 2011 draft.  The kings would be free to draft almost any position, and know that they can move Turner to another spot on the floor.  Bottom line, there is only one player on the Kings that is a legit Star (REKE), I cant help but believe that Evan Turner will provide the Kings a second Bona fide star.

16 total PG’s taken since 2000 in the top 8

WORTH IT

Devin Harris

Chris Paul

Deron Williams

Derrick Rose

O.J. Mayo

Russell Westbrook

Tyreke Evans

Steph Curry

NOT WORTH IT

Jay Williams

DuJaun Wagner

Kirk Heinrich

T.J. Ford

Shaun Livingston

Mike Connelly

Ricky Rubio

Johnny Flynn

Taking a PG in the top 8 is basically a 50/50 proposition.  I completely understand that this is probably the case for most positions, however when a player truly possesses the skills to play 3 NBA positions, the level of risk is seriously lowered.  While I do feel that John Wall will be a solid NBA point guard, I just feel that Turner will have a much bigger impact on whichever team he goes to.  His impact will not be based on one position, it will come from his overall impact on the stat sheet and in the flexibility he gives an organization going forward. 

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Player Profile: Greg Monroe

Greg Monroe stats

08-09 (frosh) 12.7/ 6.5/ 2.5/ 1.5/ 1.57 points per possession 57% FG

09-10 (soph) 16.1 / 9.6/ 3.8/ 1.5/ 1.2 /1.43 point per 52%

Assist to turnover ration improved from 1.03 to 1.14

Greg Monroe is a 6-11 C that brings a solid all around game after two years of award winning basketball (Pete Newell Big Man Of the Year, 3rd team all America).

Why I would argue that Greg Monroe would be the best suit for the Kings if they don’t land a top 2 pick.  True size with an all around game is not common.  More importantly, Greg Monroe appears to understand the secret.  The secret is to know your role and dominate within those parameters.   This past season was supposed to be Greg Monroe’s year to dominate, and carry his Hoyas to a possible Big East Title and a deep run into the tourney.  Instead of simply dominating the paint, Monroe showed he was a team player that was willing to defer to his very talented backcourt combo (Freeman, Wright- both will be 2011 draft picks).  While most analysts faulted him for this play, I watched arguing that he would be a monster of a teammate once he got to the guard friendly NBA.  It should be recognized by now that the league has ruined the game for big men in the mold of Patrick Ewing and Alonzo Mourning.  The leagues best center is a dominating defensive player, who rebounds with a vengeance and scores basically of off pure athleticism.  Of course I’m talking about Dwight Howard, and beyond that there really only about 5-10 true centers.  What does that say; it says that to dominate you don’t need an old school post player to win in this league. 

So how does Monroe help the kings?  I would argue that Monroe would be able to step in right away for the Kings and show the tools to be one of the top 10 centers in the league within 2 years.

My top 10 centers

1.     Dwight Howard

2.     Brook Lopez

3.      Tim Duncan

4.     Yao Ming (if he returns to form)

5.     David Lee

6.     Chris Kaman

7.     Al Jefferson

8.     Andrew Bogut

9.     Andrew Bynum

10.  Andrea Bargnani

Joakim Noah, Mehemt Okur, Al Horford, Greg Oden, Marc Gasol, are all good players that will probably replace the two veterans or supplant other player.

More importantly than becoming a top ten center is the way he would help this team to their overall goal (a championship caliber team).  Monroe appears to be a great locker room guy, and a facilitating teammate on the court.  At the end of the day the kings don’t have a big man that can help Tyreke Evans and Carl Landry on a consistent basis.  While Hawes and Thompson would excel with the second unit, I just don’t see them as difference makers on a first unit. The Line up next year with Monroe would be

1st unit                

C: Monroe             

PF: Landry                

SF: Casspi               

G: Udrih                

G: Evans   

Bench Rotation

Greene

Thompson

Garcia

Hawes

Brockman             

Nocioni has no place on the floor with this team; we are young and should let the youth play.  He will be a pricey bench warmer, but that’s better than a pricey crappy player.

Monroe would basically be the passing big man that the kings have lacked for the better part of a decade.  He would allow Landry to continue to develop his scoring; he would allow Tyreke to get open more (he has run the Princeton offense for the last two years) with screens and backdoor passes.  With no true blue point guard, I would think the best scenario would be to assemble a team of skilled passers at all the positions (ala the LA Lakers). Running out a team that has 5 guys capable of 3-6 assists per game, makes the kings a very dangerous team.  Furthermore the Kings need a big man that has played in a tough college league (Big East) and showed a fair amount of toughness and success.  This team needs defense and in my opinion of players in our draft range Monroe may be the second best defensive player.  I know that there are shot blockers in the draft, but most of those players have a very limited offensive game and would be a mistake for the Kings to Draft.

The biggest reason we must take a center is because there is only 1 center in the first round of the 2011 mock draft boards.   Basically I would say that while Cousins is a very intriguing prospect, and Favors athleticism and attitude are very tempting, I believe that Monroe is the player that will truly help the kings in the long run.  If he had returned to school he would have been arguably the best player in College next year.  Monroe is a great player and I would love to see him in the purple and black next year