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A Look at Alex Ovechkin's Season to Date, Using BtN.
by Knee high to a duck on Dec 29, 2011 9:24 PM EST
on Japers' Rink
As is usually the case when I’m looking up advanced stats, www.behindthenet.ca is an indispensable resource.
I decided that with the New Year approaching fast, this’d be a good time to look at the Caps through the lens of advanced stats, to see if I could glean anything useful or surprising from the data. I'll be doing player-by-player analysis as a series of Fanposts as I have time. I'll move through the roster by ES ATOI, as of 39 games played. First up:
Let’s get it out of the way: Alex Ovechkin, barring a near-miraculous second-half surge, is going to finish the season with his worst counting numbers in his career.
By a lot.
But what do the advanced stats say?
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Kris Letang's summer workout - this guy is a freak.
Anyone else incorporate that type of split squat into their routine regularly? Anyone else's mind blown that he's putting up multiple reps of 280 pounds on a single leg and doesn't even look like he's breathing hard? That's straight-up bananas.
*Edit* I should note that this is via @angus_j of DobberHockey *Edit*
Why Corey Perry is a better choice than Daniel Sedin
by Knee high to a duck on Apr 8, 2011 2:21 PM EDT
on Japers' Rink
This started as a comment in the Fanshot below, but I was asked to preserve it for easier referencing as a Fanpost, so here it is.
I read an article on Puck Daddy last night on why Wyshynski will be casting his PHWA MVP ballot. Here's why I think he's badly wrong, after the jump.
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Wyshynski's Mistaken Case for Sedin as MVP Over Perry
If this is why Wysh is voting for Sedin, he's dead wrong.
Neuvirth Sim
I posted this at BtN, I'll cross post it here.
I just wanted to check out the claim that Neuvirth looked like a below average goalie.
I used a program written previously to toss 522 binomial coins with a .921 probability of success (the number of ES shots that Neuvy has faced and the given NHL-average ES Sv%)
I came out with 2328 of those 10000, or a 23.28% chance that an NHL average goalie would produce a .912 Sv% or lower on 522 shots.
I read that as it's somewhere between three and four times more likely that Neuvirth is below average at this point in his development than that he's average or better. No matter what Caps' fans (myself included) might think about extenuating circumstances, the safe money looks like a bet that Neuvy doesn't provide league-average goaltending.
If anyone is interested in seeing the J code, I'll link it and the console commands I used to execute it.
Edit:.912 Sv% or lower, added to the original post in italics.
Neuvirth Sim
I just wanted to check out the claim that Neuvirth looked like a below average goalie.
I used a program written previously to toss 522 binomial coins with a .921 probability of success (the number of ES shots that Neuvy has faced and the given NHL-average ES Sv%)
I came out with 2328 of those 10000, or a 23.28% chance that an NHL average goalie would produce a .912 Sv% on 522 shots.
I read that as it's somewhere between three and four times more likely that Neuvirth is below average at this point in his development than that he's average or better. No matter what Caps' fans (myself included) might think about extenuating circumstances, the safe money looks like a bet that Neuvy doesn't provide league-average goaltending.
If anyone is interested in seeing the J code, I'll link it and the console commands I used to execute it.
Must Read: mchockey79 -- Who did Colin Campbell call "a little fake artist"?
Absolutely outstanding work from Tyler Dellow -- anyone who ever suspected Colin Campbell was a total nincompoop has a bunch of extra ammunition now.
Alex Ovechkin Scoring Simulation
by Knee high to a duck on Oct 22, 2010 4:35 PM EDT
on Japers' Rink
Inspired by this post at Russian Machine Never Breaks, I decided to do my own simulation, since a mean of 42 goals looked pretty light, given the lowest point in his data set so far is 46. Results and methodology after the jump.
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Recording Caps Scoring Chances
I recorded the chances for the 10/8/2010 game at Atlanta using timeonice.com's widget.
If anyone wants to join me in recording scoring chances this season, please feel free - Vic Ferrari and the boys have provided these tools to everyone, so it's really easy and highly informative. If we can get a few people recording the data independently, I think we'll have something valuable to reference when we want to look back at the season and see who works well together and who doesn't.
Gauging interest in a fantasy keeper league.
I'm interested in getting a fantasy keeper league going with JR folks; I really enjoyed playing the one-year league last season, but keeper seems like it adds more depth and dimensions to the considerations. Anyone know how easy or hard it is to set up an auction system for a league starting out? I'd prefer to play with ESPN, since I don't have a Yahoo! account, but that's pure laziness. If admin or participation is easier on either system, we'll go with that. If there's significant interest, we'll get this off the ground ASAP, drop me a line at the email in my profile, or leave a reply here.
The Caps by Zone Differential
by Knee high to a duck on Aug 22, 2010 4:44 PM EDT
on Japers' Rink
The boys over at The Copper & Blue created a stat called Zone Differential, based on their work with Expected Zone Finish; basically, it measures the expected ratio of times a player ends on an O-zone stoppage as opposed to the actual ratio. Our inestimable leader J.P. did something similar way back in January of '09, although the calculation is a bit different.
More explanation and tables after the jump and as always, all numbers from Behind the Net and the NHL website.
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Expected Zone Finish - Copper'n'Blue
Another way to judge which players are playing tough minutes and help to inform QCOMP with context. Great stuff, once again, from Copper'n'Blue.
Vic Ferrari does Qual Comp
For anyone interested in the QualComp debate - Vic Ferrari has a new methodology, explained in the link above. It's not perfect, but according to his calculations (which I have no reason to doubt, Vic is pretty sharp) it accounts for about 55% of the non-luck changes in Fenwick over the course of a season. Pretty snazzy.
Copper'n'Blue Shot Quantity vs. Shot Quality II
The second in the series over at the Oilers' SBN Blog. The first one was awesome, the second one equally so. If you're interested in how teams win (outshooting or outconverting), these are great, great articles to read.
Copper And Blue kills it again
This is a great look at balancing quality chances versus volume of shooting. As it turns out, outshooting your opponent may not represent the be-all-end-all of hockey dominance (although teams not named the Oilers and Lemieux Penguins usually outshoot pretty powerfully). Highly recommended read.
JRHL Playoffs Update 3/29/10
by Knee high to a duck on Mar 29, 2010 3:53 PM EDT
on Japers' Rink
After a long, school-fueled hiatus, the updates are back for the first round of the playoffs. Actual content after the jump, to keep the post size manageable on mobile browsers.
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The Odds of Canada Winning Gold
Over at BtN, Gabe takes a look at the likely winning percentage of the Olympic teams if we accept pythagorean percentage (discussed at some length in prior fanposts) and equality across years in talent.
He posits that Canada has a 50% chance of finishing out of the medals based on the pythagorean percentages. Can you imagine the wailing and gnashing of teeth from north of the border?
JRHL update, for reals this time.
by Knee high to a duck on Feb 15, 2010 1:17 PM EST
on Japers' Rink
Okay, so I promised I'd get it done last week, but something came up.
Recaps and Standings after the jump.
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1) Cam Janssen’s hit on Matt Bradley is Exhibit A of what needs to be removed from hockey. Don’t give me the excuse Bradley wasn’t looking. Why would he? He was following the play. I love hitting, but come on.
Elliote Friedman nails it in point 1 of his 30 thoughts column.
Second City Hockey reacts to today's trade
This isn't Caps specific, but if the Caps can make the Finals, then the Hawks are as likely as anyone to oppose them.
Interesting post with some info on both Kim Johnsson, Nick Leddy, and Cam Barker.
JHRL Standings and Recaps, 1/18
by Knee high to a duck on Jan 21, 2010 12:48 AM EST
on Japers' Rink
This would have been up Monday, but I was too busy mashing posts out in the PPP fundraiser GDT.
Recaps and Standings after the jump; this is my weekly entreaty for those of us who browse with a mobile device. Please make use of the jump if your post is of any substance, having to scroll through a bajillion pictures or paragraph upon paragraph isn't a happy thing.
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