My theory goes like this: 

    Contador has a pecking order of loyalty that he pulls from.  For most riders, its solely based on team orders, but for a rider of Bert's dominance, the boundaries stretch further.   J-Rod and he obviously have a bond with some history - likely more than we realize.  The Moorish influence is in his DNA - shady, cut-throat, underhanded alliances with unexpected, backstabbing consequences!  A bit too much drama? Totally, maybe.  I remind you that while he was passing J-Rod during the initial move to get up the road toward Vino, he paused momentarily and looked over to Rodriguez to his right, to to be sure that he saw him (AC).  It reeked of a pre-arranged "deal".  Vino was nearly an insignificant afterthought, except for the fact that it coincidentally played nicely into the plan which stood to benefit by the added element of surprise.   Andy underestimated Contador's ability to betray a team member.  That kind of crap would never have happened on Saxo.  Andy made the mistake of feeling safe as long as Vino was up the road. As we know, the ethical black and white is less prominent at Astana.

 
So onto the essence of my theory:   AC gifted the stage to J-Rod, a price he was willing to pay to have J-Rod's support in the Pyrenees.  I don't think he feels Vino will be able to provide him with the same level of assistance as his savvy countryman.  Bert proved today that at the end of the tour, he'd enjoy no significant satisfaction in merely knowing he'd helped Vinokourov win a stage. I guess I see his point though.  J-Rod would not have won without AC taking the initiative. I also think that AC could have ridden past J-Rod and opened a gap that would never have been closed if he'd wanted to.   

   There were some impressive thespian moments today too as they headed into the last mile or so.  Contador has really developed his acting to nearly Lance's level.   There was: The Headshake - it'll go down in the annals of the sport, oh!  And then there was...The Mystery Look(s) Back, debated by critics and fans alike - was he looking to see when J-Rod would sprint,  to avoid any gap that could compromise "S.T." status with Rodriguez?  Or was he looking back to a flailing Vino?  Checking the distance to Andy??  Oooooh!  Heee'll never tell!  And lastly, my favorite, his masterful Feigned look of Disappointment as he "lost" the sprint.  In fairness though, if he practiced the karate-chop to the handlebar move that we saw Vino display as Katusha took the stage, he'd be even more convincing!  I don't really like Contador, but I'm respecting his ability to read a race and the clever stratagizing that accompanies it more and more - he's really is the whole package (but I'm still dreading the inevitable "Pistolero" gunshot we've yet to be treated to . . . ho-hum).

MERRY CHRISTMAS PdC

Given the usual over-abundance of doping related stories this time of year, I figured I'd post on a subject a bit more positive, though-provoking, and suitable to constructive analysis and hopefully, debate.   After Lance Armstrong's comments apprx. two weeks ago to Alberto Contador regarding the "dregs" he'd left Alberto with at Astana, I got to thinking...could this really be a fair analysis, or just trash talking?

First off, to keep this rivalry interesting, the scales would need to tip in Armstrong's favor in all aspects outside of actual physical ability.  Clearly, last year's tour made it pretty clear that all things being equal,  Contador is a better grand tour rider, at least at this point in his career.  I wont attempt to just rehash recent posts that address the individual advantages of all the factors that go into any successful rider's victories, no point in doing that.  I began thinking instead, about the legitimacy of Lance's statement.

Continue reading this post »

I received a Yahoo! alert today (from the trusty folks at Yahoo cycling) suggesting that Washington DC was making some sort of bid to host a 2012 Giro kick-off.  After confirming that today indeed wasn't April 1st, and that the source was legit, I began thinking.  I am told that DC's mayor owns a running store in the city, and that he's an avid cyclist with a family history that dipped its toes in racing.  I suppose if I found myself in posession of a stack of business cards sporting my name and "MAYOR - Washington, DC" in black ink underneath, I might attempt to use that status to bring me a bit closer to a sport, and more specifically, an event that I hold so dear to my heart.  Aside from admiring his ability to find a way to be proud of city so wrought with poverty, corruption and crime, I can't help but wonder what he believes DC could contribute to a race like the Giro.  I have no doubt that the available merits hinge squarely on the course being routed past as many of the monuments and landmarks as possible.  That being the case, could he actually believe that DC will somehow "WOW" the Italians with the "magnificent" Greek and Romanesque architecture that studs our fine nation's capital?  Imagine how fortunate the European continent will feel to be exposed to such beauty, as they view from Europe, itself  so "starved" of history and architecture!!  Are we as Americans really so arrogant to believe that the positives outweigh the negatives?  I'm sure the chance to ride past the Lincoln Memorial is well worth  the 10 hour redeye on a cramped 747 a few hours after the podium presentation, only to arrive in Italy hours before clipping in for another long hard stage, right? 

There was a referance to the Versus element of the Astana fiasco in a comment by Katiek on Chris' "Astana:What a Mess" thread.  I submit that the Versus focus is another brick in the PR wall that the master mason Johan Bruyneel is building.  Look at the facts:  1.He's fed up with the shakey, flakey  Kazak big biz style of diplomacy. Truth is, he's used the budget to build the best super team since Bernard Tapie's/ Paul Koechli's La Vie Claire, all to be left holding a bag of unsigned paychecks and an absurd accusation (offensive even) that he's "mismanagaed the budget".
2. His real leverage comes from the media goldmine that exists in the form of LA's participation.   Both Johan and Versus most certainly expect that Lance will self-destruct and disappoint across the board, but business is business and the replacement sponsors (when astana bails as a result of the Vino excuse) will have already signed on the dotted line to be a part of the LA TdF global mainstream headline (subsequently cashing in on looking like the big hero for keeping LA's "cancer crusade season" alive - lol). The disappointment that the  public will experience as a result of lance's TdF failure will rest squarely on LA solely.  Johan and Versus are just fine with that, Johan wins (the GC with Bert), not to mention the fact that whether Astana finally fronts the bill or another sponsor steps in, its win-win for Johan. As for Versus, pitching advertising sponsors on the prospective revenue furnished from a Contador victory  is a tough sell to say the least.  No CEO wants to hear that.  LA's household name secures the big audience, mostly non-cyclists, or at least not serious ones.  So....wrapping this up with my initial point...Johan has orchestrated a PR strategy by having Contador build up this  pseudo tension or intra-team rivalry, lending "credit" to any pipe-dream that an American may win the tour.  This PR spin creates tender juicy flesh for the wolves (future sponsors and advertisers) to sink their greedy teeth into.  Those versus ads pitching LA's return to TdF dominance  have such an undeniable,  pathetically dark, shameful undertone - like a shiester 19th century, fly-by-night, traveling salesman's "medicine show",  rolling into small towns, slinging a "elixer" that's a sure cure for what ails ya!  In the end, contador will make everyone feel silly for second guessing what we all (the real cycling fans that get our headlines from VeloNews rather than USA Today) know deep down - he's the only one with the legs to deliver.  Even Armstrong himself isn't convincing with his bad acting job, you know, the one where he acts like he's just a regular guy, crusading for the "awareness" of cancer, (like somehow losing the tour and letting down the hopes of millions world-wide will somehow save lives (wtf?)). The Livestrong "behind the scenes" team bus vids are nothing more than his clever way of avoiding the reporter's daily demands for explanations for another lousy stage performance.  The Giro's "LA snubs The Media" nonsense was nothing more than a tactical shake-down excercise for dodging the embarassment  of awkward interviews and excessive excuse fabrication.  Just reference his excuse for getting distanced on the Galibier several years back.  Even my favorite politically correct  media puppet Phil Ligget called BS on Lance's claim that on the slopes of the high mtn, he "smelled something burning" ! ! !  then continued,  "Then I said to Johan, I said, Johan, I have good news and bad news...the rear brake has been rubbing..." for the whole stage.  Wow! It rubbed so much it was smoking!!  Yeah, that's the ticket.  As if you could smell smoke eminating from a REAR brake whilst riding in a forward direction in the first place.  Nevermind that he can detect the difference a few grams makes in how the bike bke feels, yet he can ride 70 miles in the alpes without detecting the rear brake being engaged???  Clearly he's not comfortable keeping it "real" when the tough questions highlight his vulnerability.  Sponsors wont want to hear that he won't do interviews, afterall, he's a lot of people's bread and butter (Johan, Versus, Trek, The American Cancer Society, and all the sponsors that want their moneys worth), so the Livestrong bus cam is the best solution: high visibility with no reporters putting him on the spot.  The only winners of the 2009 tour will be Johan Bruyneel and Bert Contador.