With Cincinnati and Denver both winning this week, and Buffalo losing, the Bills are currently in 4th, but still alive for the 2nd overall pick. Carolina, of course, has locked up the first pick in the draft. If the Bills win next week, they could drop as low as 9th; I don't think they could be any better than 6th, but the calculations for a win are much more complicated since there are so many teams at 5-9 or 5-10 right now.

Continue reading this post »

One of the goals of the Bills going into the year was converting on third down and stopping opponents from converting. So far, the Bills are first in the league in 3rd down conversion defense! They've allowed just 7 first downs on 39 attempts (18%), leading the league. On offense, they're converting 38% of the time - not great, but not horrible either.

Worst in the league? Next week's opponent, the Rams - allowing a mind-boggling 51% conversion rate on 3rd down. They're also worst at 3rd down conversions on offense, converting just 22% of the time. The Rams are also #31 on offense and #32 on defense (yards and points allowed) - and don't even make up for it on special teams (longest kick/punt return was 30 yards). However, the Rams do lead the league in gross punt yardage - I imagine giving their punter so many chances helps.

After the New England win last night, the Bills draft scenarios have changed slightly. I've run all 16,384 possibilities on my computer and have determined that the Bills will have a draft pick between 11th and 14th with a loss today, and between 15th (tied with Minnesota) and 19th with a win.

Here's the breakdown:
For the Bills to have the #11 pick, they need to lose, of course, and have Arizona, Carolina, Denver, Jacksonville, and Kansas City win.
The other 9 games don't matter - except in a complicated scenario: if Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Miami, Seattle, and Washington all win, the Bills would be tied with Carolina and subject to a coin toss for the 11th pick.

For the Bills to have the #15 pick after a win, it's rather difficult: they need Atlanta, Cincinnati, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Houston, Kansas City, New Orleans, San Fransisco, and Tampa Bay to win. They'll still be tied with the Vikings, so they also need to win the coin toss.

So, what's the most likely scenario? The Bills will probably end up 12 or 13 with a loss; 17 or 18 with a win. I'll update this after the first group of games and in the evening for more details.
Update [2007-12-30 18:30:28 by Krenn]:
With the loss, the Bills are guaranteed to pick in the top 13 - somewhere between 11 and 13, now. It depends on the Cardinals and Broncos; if both teams win, the Bills pick 11th. If they both lose, they pick 13th, and if just one team wins, they pick 12th.

There is also the possibility that they can end up tied with Denver in record and strength of schedule - but after re-reading the NFL tie-breaking procedures, conference tiebreakers do appear to matter, so the head-to-head loss would give the Bills the better selection.

So - let's go Cardinals and Broncos!