On August 8th, 2008, Graham made an excellent post titled Biomechanics and You. It was aimed - more or less - at amateur "biomechanical" analysis done by writers like... well, me.

The point is really that I'm not convinced we can just take all the injury predictions that analysts are throwing up online at face value. I don't think I could come anywhere near injury predictions within the next few years, and I'm supposed to be an expert on it. Maybe I'm just stupid, but I'd say it's more likely that we should all be taking commentary on pitching mechanics and their relationship to injury with a boulder of salt.

I enjoyed the article and even linked to it on my now-defunct SB Nation blog, Driveline Mechanics. A healthy dose of skepticism is a very good thing. I tried to make it clear that my thoughts on pitching mechanics were unscientific thoughts with what I thought were interesting theories about pitching based on my knowledge of exercise science and kinesiology. However, that didn't stop a lot of people from taking my word as gospel (despite repeated statements from me spelling out the opposite), and I grew uncomfortable with my blog and the fuzzy mission statement that came with it. So, I stopped blogging, and eventually the blog was moved offline by SBN superiors.

Even prior to Graham's post, I had been working on building a low-cost biomechanical analysis laboratory in Seattle. For those unaware, high-speed cameras were basically unavailable at reasonable price points in 2008 until the Casio Exilim EX-F1 came out for $1000. Even then, these cameras weren't enough to do the advanced biomechanical analysis required to even shine a light on the "mechanics" of throwing a baseball. It would require multiple cameras, off-the-shelf software that could solve for kinematics/kinetics (and provide a digitization solution), custom algorithms that could solve the synchronization issue between these consumer-grade cameras (commercial ones do this automatically), and a precisely measured control object.

Commercial packages are available, but cost $15-17k for a two-camera setup that is not sufficient for working with movements that occur in all three planes so rapidly - like baseball pitching. You're looking at $25-30k at the bare minimum with off-the-shelf packages, plus customization and training.

Well, I don't have that kind of money, so I took the former route. For the last three years, I've been developing a low-cost solution with a research assistant from the University of Washington (plus two more Mathematics and Kinesiology interns/assistants from local schools on the way). Matthew Wagshol and I have been spending much of our free time scouring texts from the UW library, doing tons of trial filming (most of it fruitless), and building weird PVC structures inside the Home Depot on Aurora Ave:

via farm2.static.flickr.com

We managed to assemble this thing at our Lake City facility. We precisely measured it, taking about 6 hours to do so. And... we had to cut it down and remeasure it a few weeks later because it was too large.

via farm2.static.flickr.com

We started filming trials using the control object and two cameras as a test. And... we got some pretty interesting results that matched the commercial labs out there!

via i.imgur.com

Now, it's not perfect, but we're getting closer with every trial we shoot. We've added a third camera and some better processes on how to digitize these files in our software. (Think 1 click on each body segment per frame, 22 body segments, 120 frames per video, 3 cameras...) And kinematic values like Maximum Shoulder External Rotation Angular Velocity and solving for Maximum Shoulder Horizontal Abduction/Adduction static values has been done. Kinetics are up next - the joint loads on the shoulder and elbow, specifically. This poses another set of interesting problems, but I'm already going on and on about an esoteric subject.

Before I made this post, I emailed Jeff to see if the readers might find this type of stuff interesting - and based on the popularity of Graham's post (and my former blog), it seems like there is some interest. So, I wanted to share with everyone what work I've been doing that you could actually call biomechanical analysis. No, I don't have an undergraduate degree in kinesiology, biomechanics, or even a hard science degree (I studied Computer Science and Economics), but I've read at least 10 full academic texts on biomechanics/kinesiology and more research papers on the subject that I care to count (at least 50, probably far more). I've talked to the subject matter experts (Dr. Murray Maitland and Dr. Kevin McQuade at the University of Washington's Human Motion Analysis Laboratory, Dr. Glenn Fleisig and Dave Fortenbaugh at American Sports Medicine Institute, and various other biomechanists/kinesiologists out there) to learn more about the industry and the best practices for performing research. My research assistant worked in the University of Florida's biomechanics lab, so he brings some practical experience with him.

But the truth is that what we're doing is much more difficult than buying a commercial product and simply doing some basic research. We're trying to bring true three-dimensional biomechanical analysis services to the public at low costs - and not just the service, but the product itself. Coaches and trainers out there should have access to this valuable technology, and at its current price point, it is simply impossible to afford. Our dream is to set up a reliable laboratory for under $1,000, and I strongly believe this is possible given the plunge in prices for consumer-grade high-speed cameras (you can get the Casio Exilim EX-F10 for $100 today). 

And we want people to get excited about it. We're operating at a huge loss - which is fine - and we don't expect to get rich off this. But it's something that's always interested me, dating back to my arm injuries and pain as a youth athlete with no real answers to it. So if you're in the Seattle area and want to drop by to check it out, please shoot me an email (kyle@drivelinebaseball.com). We're open most weekday nights and almost anytime on the weekends, and we'd love to show you around. It's just the basement of a warehouse with a few batting cages and a training facility, but it's our home - or it might as well be, given how much time I spend there.

Thanks. I'd love to answer any questions or comments you might have.

EDIT: Interestingly enough, the linked post about Tim Tebow's work in a lab at UF is the same lab Matthew worked at.

Assuming the trade is for Greg Smith, Carlos Gonzalez, and Huston Street, here’s my writeup:

-Greg Smith: 190.1 IP, 111 SO, 87 BB, 21 HR, 34.2% GB rate, 5.36 xFIP. This guy is literally at best a league average starter - his k/bb ratio is LOL and he gives up way too many flyballs to be effective in Coors. His BABIP was a bit low as well; probably due to Oakland’s defense.
-Huston Street: A reliever. A good one, but a reliever nonetheless. He also has arm trouble.
-Carlos Gonzalez: Exactly what about these minor league numbers screams to you “the next big thing?” (Remember to discount them for playing in Arizona’s minor league parks.) His ceiling was Hanley Ramirez-esque; “tools play” and all that other hyped-up bull****. If he learns how to control the strike zone, he could be a terror, but most players never learn to do this.

Oakland already has a bunch of tweener-type OF’s who are being overlooked due to injury - Ryan Sweeney, Chris Denorfia, Travis Buck, and Rajai Davis. A lot of people are forgetting that Denorfia is a very possible Carlos Quentin-type rebound player - coming off an arm injury and having a bad 2008 year, he could be poised to have a big 2009 year. Take a look at his minor league numbers. Travis Buck was hurt all year and has continually put up great secondary numbers - patience at the plate and a bunch of pop.

Don’t forget we have this stat-guy’s wet dream, too - Aaron Cunningham. He does everything slightly better than average but nothing extremely well, and scouts dislike him for that. Whatever.

-Matt Holliday: These are the numbers that scares everyone, and rightfully so. A career line of .280/.348/.455 away from Coors field is definitely nothing special. However, there exists evidence that Holliday is learning to produce away from Coors - check his three year progression away from Coors:

2006 - .280/.333/.485
2007 - .301/.374/.485
2008 - .308/.405/.486

It would appear that he is becoming more patient and learning what he can and cannot do away from Coors (where he has ludicrous BABIP numbers).

.308/.405/.486 sounds like a pretty damn good hitter to me.

Now, the scenarios:

1) Holliday is traded before the season starts. This seems somewhat likely to me, coming in around 20%. The A’s can flip him for a better package; it’s possible that Dan O’Dowd is playing the same character as Omar Minaya in Moneyball - he’s not getting enough value for Holliday and Beane knows it.

2) Holliday plays and is traded at the deadline. This seems like the most possible scenario to me (50%), since there will be plenty of teams that need an impact bat at the deadline for the playoff push and will overpay for one. See also: Ramirez, Manny and the Los Angeles Dodgers.

3) Holliday plays the season through and becomes a free agent. Assuming the A’s do not make the playoffs, this is the “worst-case” scenario (30%), which involves losing Greg Smith, Carlos Gonzalez, and Huston Street for two high draft picks. Considering the writeups I did at the top of this post regarding my thoughts on those players, I think this is not terrible.

4) Holliday re-signs with the Oakland Athletics. LOL

Anyway, I like the deal a lot for those players. I would hate it if Brett Anderson was included in the deal. I’m not sure I would like it if it was Brett Anderson for Matt Holliday straight up. Actually, that’s a lie, that would be great. Basically Brett Anderson + Greg Smith would be fine; Brett Anderson + Gonzalez or Street would absolutely suck.

Ed. Note:  The writeup below includes an advance release of the 2009 projections from The Bill James Handbook 2009, which are used with the permission of the book's publisher, Acta Sports.  The book will be available on Nov. 1 and can be pre-ordered direct from the publisher by clicking this link.  We're not affiliated and aren't making a commission, just giving credit where credit is due.  Everybody knows that Bill James rocks.  [Jay]

I got an advance copy of Bill James's 2009 projections (as did Jay, I think). Here they are for Cleveland Indians hitters (AVG / OBP / SLG / OPS):  

Hafner,Travis	0.270	0.384	0.496	0.880
Sizemore,Grady	0.277	0.374	0.500	0.874
Martinez,Victor	0.300	0.374	0.463	0.837
Choo,Shin-Soo	0.282	0.365	0.452	0.816
Shoppach,Kelly	0.256	0.328	0.485	0.813
Garko,Ryan	0.282	0.358	0.449	0.807
Peralta,Jhonny	0.274	0.341	0.461	0.802
LaPorta,Matt	0.252	0.324	0.446	0.771
Francisco,Ben	0.271	0.334	0.428	0.762
Gutierrez,Fran	0.271	0.329	0.428	0.757
Cabrera,Asdr	0.277	0.349	0.404	0.753
Dellucci,David	0.241	0.329	0.409	0.738
Marte,Andy	0.248	0.314	0.408	0.722
Carroll,Jamey	0.260	0.340	0.329	0.669

And pitchers (IP / BB / SO / ERA):

Betanc,Rafael	72	18	70	3.19
Mujica,Edward	45	11	39	3.93
Lee,Cliff	194	42	146	3.90
Perez,Rafael	77	23	71	3.32
Kobayashi,Masa	51	14	37	4.31
Lewis,Jensen	70	27	70	3.84
Reyes,Anthony	168	53	135	3.88
Rincon,Juan	56	23	50	4.01
Laffey,Aaron	121	37	72	4.36
Sowers,Jeremy	83	24	45	4.28
Westbrook,Jake	64	20	35	4.14
Carmona,Fausto	141	53	88	4.17

Some early thoughts:

• Asdrubal's numbers are perfectly acceptable... if they let him play as an elite defensive shortstop. As a second baseman, they are marginal at best. Moving Asdrubal to SS, Peralta to 3b, and trade (and negotiate an extension) for Brian Roberts would be very ideal IMO. The Orioles need a bunch of filler and league-average players. We have a lot of those.
• We need to trade Kelly Shoppach. His value will never be higher when you combine his work in 2008 plus the fact that this year's free agent catchers have a bunch of 35+ year olds on the list who can't hack it anymore (Varitek et. al.). Yes, it would be great to have him catch 100 games while Victor catches 62, reducing the load on both, but that kind of luxury is reserved for teams that aren't the Indians. Like BPro said, "it's hard to find a backup catcher this good. Hell, it's hard to find a starting catcher this good."
• Shin-Soo Choo
• I am hoping for better upside from LaPorta, but who knows.
• Our pitching is thin.

Payroll considerations on the next page ...

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