SB Nation User Blog: LaoTzu

"Get Rid of Outlaw": Are You Crazy?

LaoTzu — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 08:06:50 -0000

AP (Allen, Paul "Do I own that?") -- Travis Outlaw's unconscious shooting off the bench gave the Portland Trail Blazers the big push they needed tonight to win their home opener 96-87 against the Houston Rockets.

Outlaw came into the game when Aldridge, the leading scorer to that point, had to sit with early foul trouble. With the separation Outlaw and newly acquired back-up veteran point guard Andre Miller provided in the second quarter, Portland built a lead it never relinquished in winning their home opener.

The depleted Houston Rockets showed heart in the road loss, clawing their way within six points in the fourth quarter. Outlaw's buoyed his leadership in heading the Blazers in the scoring column by opportunistic play on defense and two key rebounds late as Coach Nate McMillan kept Outlaw in the game down the stretch.

During the preseason, Portland area websites and local sports talk programs had been clogged with demands that the franchise rid itself of Outlaw. Perhaps seeking revenge for an ousting by the Rockets from last year's playoffs, "Trout" would not be denied.

Outlaw spoke with this reporter after the contest. "Travis, some folks out there questioned your ability to help this team win. Was this a statement game to set the record straight?"

"Nah. It ain't even like that. Portland fans are smart. B-Roy says they know I hit nine game winners for them last season. I keep winning games for them, Coach Nate says they gotta come round to me."

"Some question your role on this team. You have few starts in your years here in Portland. The lineup is clogged with wing players. You looked to be behind both Webster and Batum at small spot before his injury. Nate came out before the season and said you would be backing up Aldridge at power forward. But with your build you seem out of position there. Where do you see your yourself fitting with this team, at the three or the four?"

"Well, you know, I'm a scorer. I don't see myself as having so much a position except to come in and score. I guess, you know, I a sixth man type player."

Travis Outlaw is certainly a scorer. Going 9-14 from the field, hitting shots from everywhere on the floor, Outlaw led his team with 23 points in the victory. If the Blazers ever trade him, Portland fans can rest assured that young gun Portland GM Kevin Pritchard will demand someone very special in return.

Batum's Shoulder: Death of the "Units" Theory, in come the Twin Towers

LaoTzu — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 07:02:22 -0000

Batum is out. Half the season or more out. There goes the whole two units theory. Nate will be scrabbling to find groups he has confidence in. Travis will play behind Martell at SF. This leaves Howard playing big minutes. Unless ...

How about, when LMA comes out, Joel comes in and we go Twin Towers?

C and PF have 96 minutes a night. LMA gets 33, Greg might get 30 and Joel another 30, with Howard subbing in a little, more when there's foul trouble. With Batum out, the twin towers could be the answer to some lineups with tremendous interior defense. They would gobble up tons of boards. Joel won't take touches away from Greg, but he will be there on the opposite block to collect easy buckets on put backs and when GO draws the double-team.

Alternately, if Travis does see time at PF, then that opens up a spot for Rudy to play alongside Roy. Those three formed one of our most productive combinations from last season.

We might even get to see if Cunningham can play at this level (at the 3 spot, please, unless we are going small).

While Batum's injury requiring surgery is dreadful news, it should force Nate to think more creatively. I am looking forward to seeing what he comes up with.

PAX PORTLANDICUS!

Which is it, Nate? 'May the Best Man Win' or 'I'm going with the starters from last season'

LaoTzu — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 09:07:30 -0000

Sometimes people aren't very logical. Say you have a logjam at SF, your championship window is just starting to open and you decide to risk the future of the franchise going all-in for $50M on a pizza-addicted, aging guy from Turkey who would need to take the ball out of Roy's hands to have any effectiveness. Just say.

There is little doubt many decisions humans make lack logical consistency. It's been shown that the big decisions we make and the tiny decisions we make are usually equally horrible.

Studies show that people make very sound decisions when the decisions are 1) important enough for them to think about and 2) the decisions concern values they commonly deal with and are comfortable with. For instance, a corporate board commonly charged with making decisions with money ranging from $20K to $5M is usually skilled in making decisions within that range. Ask them how to spend $100 and they won't see the point in responding. More interesting, faced with a $50M decision, they won't know how to analyze the situation. They will start to dream, go on gut, or take existing data at face value. The decision isn't in their wheelhouse. If they get a hit, it will be more luck or perhaps talent than skill, though boardrooms tends to squelch talent.

But I'm not here to talk about He-dos and He-donuts. Instead, I want to talk about he saids and he saids.

It is no surprise to me that Andre Miller is confused with his role on this team. One interview quotes Nate as saying there is open competition at the 1, 3 and 5. The next time he's quoted as saying the starting unit he used last year is what he's going with this season. That kind of logical inconsistency is hard to resolve unless you understand how power works.

I am a Nate fan. I think he is great for this young team. But left with the freedom most coaches are a cult of personality naturally develops where your thoughts are right because they're your thoughts, not because they're sound, well-thought out, or based on the data. And might isn't necessarily right.

I doubt that Nate is playing Phil Jackson in this scenario. But maybe he is sending Miller a message. 'This is my team. Players on this team follow my rules. If you want to play, you have to pay your dues and earn your spot.'

This makes some sense. More sense maybe if it was a battlefield and not a basketball team. Where this sort of messaging really starts to break down is when Miller is not given credit for the dues he's already paid in a long and productive career with the league. This guy is not a rookie. He knows how to play. Early evidence suggests that he knows the Blazers offensive sets and defensive schemes better than many players who were here last year. Miller wasn't hired for his athletic dominance. He was hired for his basketball IQ.

Maybe it's time for Nate to show more flexibility and respect -- and maybe to demonstrate a better understanding regarding the power of his words. I am not saying he should necessarily start Miller. There might be sound basketball reasons to bring him off the bench. Though, like many here, I think the idea that Nate will ever platoon players like Dunleavy did is not proven out by Nate's history as a bench coach -- another logical inconsistency.

What I would like is for the team to step forward and openly support Miller as a player, a man, and for what he could mean to the franchise. I would like Nate to consider again whether his thinking is sound.

In three years, with so many great players in mid-career under longterm contracts, I don't think Nate's current approach will be the right one to lead these men. And I don't think it's fair to Miller right now.

Who would Andre Miller Start?

LaoTzu — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 20:03:43 -0000

Why ask Andre Miller who he would start? Miller is a veteran. He admittedly has as high a basketball IQ as any player on the team. He is a point guard who led a weak Philadelphia squad into the playoffs. And he led that team to a 2-and-0 record over the Blazers last season.

Andre Miller was asked if he expects to start. He said he has always started. I presume if asked whether he would start himself, he would say "Yes."

Miller would start by filling out the starting roster with our big pieces. At shooting guard, I have little doubt. He'd chose Roy. You start All-Star, Second Team NBA players. And do we have a viable option to starting LaMarcus Aldridge at power forward? (For those BEdgers who think KP's done, tell me what you do if LMA has to sit out a month.)

Miller has had a look at our small forwards. While Martell has more experience , Batum gave the Blazers equal stats last year in blocks, rebs, steals, and assists in half the minutes that Martell played in 07-08 when last he was healthy. Martell might get the nod from deep, but Nic shoots very well, too, has a game growing by leaps and bounds, and plays lock down D.

Some say that we need to stretch the court. "With Miller in there, you have got to surround him with shooters because he has trouble shooting from the outside and the opponent will clog the middle and double Roy."

I disagree. Miller is a creator on offense. Miller isn't paid because he's a lock-down defender. He's paid because he makes everyone around him a better scorer. In the starting line-up so far, you have Roy and LMA, both excellent scorers.

It's a guess, but I'm guessing Miller wants to start the overall better player here, and Miller thinks that's Batum.

"But if I start Nic, I gotta have another scorer."

And that answer is obvious. At center, Miller starts Oden. People want to blame our bigs for failing to get on the low blocks and hammer the middle. The same people probably blamed Z-Bo for being a black hole. (OK, everybody blamed Z-Bo for being a black hole.)

If I am Miller, I know I play better with Oden -- Pryzbilla can score but he will not be dominant. I know I make Oden better. I make everyone on the court a viable threat in the offense. And that is how I stretch the defense, by making every player a legitimate scorer. "If my offense is different, sorry. Will we have trouble scoring? If I thought that, I wouldn't have been pushing to come here."

Miller's Starters?

PG - Andre Miller

SG - B.Roy

SF - Batum

PF - LMA

C - Greg Oden

Why should we listen to Andre Miller? The starting lineup of Blake-Roy-Batum-LMA-Pryzbilla was one of the more efficient offense teams in the league last year. They played credible defense. And with Joel in the middle, they were a fine rebounding team. But they were the same starting five that put us in a hole coming out of the gates time and again last season. The same starting five that Nate stuck with until too late in the first round against Houston -- the team that had shooters. The Blazers had home court and were ousted in 6 -- because the first team couldn't create shot opportunities for those shooters.

Maybe we shouldn't listen to Andre Miller. The Blazers won 54 games last year without him.

But we got Miller for a reason. Because of his basketball IQ. Because he makes those around him better. I say, let him earn his money. Start these guys and see if he's right.

'77

Pick the Next Big Free Agent Here

LaoTzu — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 03:43:23 -0000

Pick the Next Big Free Agent Here

You can pick your friends, and you can pick your nose, but KP can't pick his free agent.

So pick away!

Welcome to KP's Slapfest '09

LaoTzu — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 08:31:14 -0000

People, people! All this talk and it simply does not matter. It is so cool we have one of, maybe the most savvy GM in the NBA. Draft Day is coming. KP will answer our questions in ways that will likely surprise us all. Welcome to KP's Slapfest '09.

Since we do have KP, anything stated as fact below, such as a high likelihood of having to keep such and such player, assumes that KP will not intervene with his Supernormal Powers and get the team some giant upgrade.

It is fine to talk, fun to speculate. But several factors are missing from most if not all of the analyses I have read to date.

Regarding one Trout

Travis Outlaw is a role player. He is not a back-up PF. He is not a natural starter at any position. He has too many holes in his defense. He is not reliable (goofy). Travis is hot and cold. He brings potentially unstoppable scoring and a high level of activity off the bench. He is special enough in that role to merit keeping. This is how he should be viewed. Put him on the depth chart with an asterisk, as a rover.

Regarding the Back-Up PF

Okay, yes, Channing is all but gone. (And the forgettable bigs we acquired during '08 training camp don't effect any equations. Ugh.) If we spend another year without a banger, an enforcer and defensive rebounder, who can body other bigs, and maybe present a back-to-the-basket low post threat, we will have missed the boat. This need is screaming! KP, get us a game-changer back-up to LMA!

Regarding the PG Situation

Yes, Sergio does not fit Nate's system (and he bounces the ball around way too much, reminding me of Damon's bad college-shot-clock eating habit). But Bayless as yet does not fit Nate's system either! Jerryd is not a true PG and would get posted up by most shooting guards. But he might fit with Roy. Jerryd can guard other 1's. But we need him to improve his shooting so he presents a credible threat to sink outside shots. BOTH Sergio and Bayless could go. But since Bayless still has upside here, keeping him is worth the risk of losing perceived trade value. Sergio, as many have said, has no upside under Nate. That leaves Blake, and he could go, too.

Oft villified, Steve brings a lot. He is a fine if not brilliant passer with a great Assist-to-TO ratio. He does not use much shot clock, getting the ball to the next option very quickly. He shoots the 3 VERY WELL. He is a little slight. His defense could be better. And he is not much at pushing the tempo in the open court. He reminds me of Steve Kerr, also not a jumper. If I remember right, Kerr did alright playing alongside an incredible 2-guard they had in Chicago a while back. They won some titles, right? With the 2-guard handling the ball alot on offense, especially in crunch time.

So: Whatever your analyses, if you have us selling out for a PG who needs the ball, please help us understand where that leaves BRoy. Do we trade Brandon, since he won't be having the ball much on offense? Or do we start Rudy, and bring Brandon off the bench in the sort of role his friend Travis has now? Don't just quote from FantasyBob.com. Let us know how the player fits the team, the existing personnel, and makes us better, not just different.

Besides youth, what needs fixing in this group is defense and the ability to score going full court. If Bayless is truly an upgrade at the defensive end (we should not burden our bigs, especially Greg, with picking up so much of the slack), then maybe he is the PG of the future.

Regarding the Need to Trade Now or Lose Value

This is a myth. I don't believe it. In fact, I think it could not be more untrue.

Here is why. Look at the trade posts. They try to match salaries, right? Well, the young talent we have is relatively under paid. That is the effect of the rookie salary scale. We have rights to sign these players to contracts matching their abilities. Besides the luxury tax and any reticence from PA, there is nothing stopping that. If we have Martell and Travis and Batum at the 3, and in talent level they are worth a ton, but we have to match salaries to make a trade work, we need to give someone a two- or three-for-one on the talent scale for a probable slight upgrade at one position ... think a second, does this in any way sound like a KP move? No. It does not.

What would KP do? He would wait until his chips reflected their actual value or better before trading them. He would wait for his players to get paid what they are worth before he matches salaries with other teams in trading talent. In this regard, standing pat is waiting until your security matures so you don't pay a penalty for early withdrawal.

The Likelihood of Trading Injured Blazers

Martell missed a year with multiple foot surgeries. Blake just underwent shoulder surgery. Oden is not yet 100% after micro-fracture knee surgery. How likely is it that we can get near-full-value value for these players in a trade? Please consider this is your analysis of trades involving these players before they have demonstrated a full recovery, meaning after they've played at least some pre-season games. That timing seems to be a real problem for many trade scenarios I have seen discussed.

Like everyone else, I would like to see upgrades in personnel. In KP I trust. And it is a truism that it does not matter how deep your bench is if your starters can't compete with the opposing starters. And I will entertain the idea that we should make the move now to acquire that key player so that we can get settled into the team we will become as we start our series of championship runs.

However, think about this: If we make a big move now, trading two- or three-for-one, we lose flexibility AND we lose value. We need to know if Martell will pan out. We need more time to evaluate how good Oden and LMA will get to understand what our needs will be. We need to know what holes need to be filled before we start filling them. (Please consider this when offering Joel in a trade -- I say we keep them both.) The team is closer. Fix what's broken and the maturation of your investment will give you the value you need to get any missing pieces at the least cost in talent.

Unless you are KP. Then do whatever you want.

Have a great Draft Day '09!

Chinese Cry Foul on NBA Referees

LaoTzu — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 09:06:36 -0000

Beijing -- Taking up the cry of long-suffering coach Rick Adelman, millions of Yao Ming fans moved from the Chinese blogosphere to the streets chanting pro-Yao and anti-officiating sentiments.

"Where are the calls against the Trail Blazers?" "Yao is getting mugged." "The referees always call playoffs against Rockets."

Relief!

After Game 4, the relief in Beijing was palpable. "Finally, fouls called against such crowding." "Yao still is being assaulted. Every play they should call fouls on the American Running Dogs." "Yao would hang 40 on the Blazers except for their cheating ways." And, "Yao is so much a gentleman that he does not respond with superior Chinese kung fu."

Banners still hung far low: "If Rockets not make it out of first round, Chinese people boycott the NBA!"

Stern appears in Tien Mien Square

David Stern, sensitive to the Chinese position, read a short announcement. "It is about time that Yao, that giant talent from this unbelievably huge and growth oriented market, has made it out of the first round." When reminded that Houston had to win another game, Stern said, "Well, let's call that a formality."

"You are sure the Rockets make Round 2?"

"Yes, you can quote me in your native tongue that it will be a Kobe versus Yao showdown in Round 2."

"But sir, is that not a discredit to the proud Trail Blazers franchise of Bill Walton?"

Signing off with a little wave and a crooked smile, Stern said, "Believe me, by now they're used to it."

How We Beat the Rockets!

LaoTzu — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 17:54:50 -0000

Play Blazer Basketball

Blazer basketball is sharing the ball and setting screens. It is playing the right way. Playing Blazer basketball moves defenders, creates mismatches, opens the lane and leaves our 3pt specialists open to catch and shoot with their feet under them. Efficient, classic, beautiful basketball -- play beautiful basketball, Blazers!

Staying on Yao: A Required Change

Okay, so one aspect of Blazer basketball is suspended for this series. We need to move from a team defense concept to focusing more on our man. Joel and Greg CANNOT leave Yao unguarded to go for a block. Yao will either receive an entry pass or simply jam the rebound.

This means that our perimeter players must play better man defense and not allow penetration. Or it means we use our forwards to cover penetration. Probably both. If we can't cover their quicks man-to-man, we might switch to a zone occasionally to confuse the Rockets. This is dangerous, as they have decent and willing perimeter shooters. I would only expect this from Nate when Houston's line-up includes Yao, and their primary shooters are either on the bench or have shown difficulty. How can Nate use Batum,Travis and LMA to rotate defensively to stuff the key and not leave their man open? Hmm.

Houston Responds

Houston will not let LMA and Roy wreck them in a repeat of Game 2. They will force other Blazers to make shots. So make them. Blake, Batum, Rudy and Travis have been guarded well so far with dedicated man D. Expect that to change tonight. Our shooters must be ready to respond and Roy and Aldridge must be ready to hit the open man, or at least swing the ball to the perimeter. If the shot is not open, we re-enter the ball and hopefully switching has caused lanes to open for our first two options.

Mutumbo Gone Brings More Change

Mutumbo's injury is a huge loss to Houston. They will be forced to play without a big in the middle for extended minutes the rest of the series. Oddly, those minutes are about the average playing time for one Greg Oden. While some argue for playing Greg on Yao to wear Yao down -- and certainly Greg will be needed at times to back up Joel against Yao -- the truth is that Greg is a much more dangerous offensive threat and a better offensive rebounder, which is to some degree wasted with Yao in the game.

Without an opposing shot blocker crowding the paint, the Blazers should find it easier to create driving lanes. Besides layups and dunks, it becomes easier to stop-and-pop in the key or to fingerroll the ball at the front of the rim. Greg will also be there for the put back, or the catch and jam should his man rotate for the cover.

Finally, on the defensive end, it means that our center will not be stuck on the opposing big. We can revert to playing Blazer help defense with our center rotating for shot blocks. Keep your hands up, Greg!

The Boards and Hustle

Blazer basketball is dominating the boards. We need a body on opposing players. Block out for the rebound. On offense, if we succeed in creating driving lanes and mismatches, and get Houston out of their comfort zone, this will open attacking lanes for our rebounders and make it hard for defenders to recover and put a body on us. Basically, besides using our size effectively. we need to scramble more and cause more confusion in the Rockets' rebounding scheme.

One key here is getting Yao out of the key on defense. We must make Yao move on the defensive end to slow him on offense and get him to the bench faster. We will see the high pick and roll more. Using sets to expose their illegal defense may be required early in the game. With Yao out of the middle, Blazer offensive rebounds happen.

And we need to scrap and get loose balls. We are the younger team and the team with the deeper bench. We should win more of the energy plays.

Some Minor Fixes

This is the playoffs. These young guys need to stop any bad habits they learned playing against weak teams where a possession here or there did not matter.

Aldridge needs to set up around 17 feet . Not at twenty feet. He can make the twenty footer. He is almost twice as like to make the 16 footer. Those few feet in make him alot more efficient perimeter player. So when he moves off a screen he sets and or sets up weakside waiting for the entry to feed his jumper, just set up a little closer.

Blake needs to be more careful entering the ball to Roy at the top of the key. Blake often brings up the ball then immediately feeds Roy to start the offense. Houston is waiting on that pass. They have already stole the ball for breakaways. Just something more to watch for, or maybe even to take advantage of.

Rudy needs his feet set to shoot from range. He understands this. He also likes to drive and shoot in the air ala Outlaw. Rudy's least efficient shot has been when in the air moving laterally to the basket. He can hit the shot when moving straight at the rim, but when floating to the side he is inefficient.

Our forwards need to rebound. Especially with Yao in -- given Houston's tenacity really at all times -- the Blazer forwards and guards need to be aware and ready to rebound, especially on the defensive end. Aldridge came ready in Game 2 and had a monster defensive rebounding game. We need to see more defensive rebounding from Travis and Batum.

Sergio needs to D up and play tighter. He cannot waste shot clock looking for the right entry pass against the wall that is Houston's D. Expect Nate to install more off the ball player movement when Sergio is in. Get the ball moving through more hands.

We will also see more of Bayless when Yao is in the game to cover Houston's quicks.Go Jerryd!

As a team, we need to take the open shot with confidence. Houston doesn't give you a lot of open looks. When you have your shot, be ready to hit it.

A Winnable Series

When this series started, I was convinced the Rockets were our worst draw in the West. Not unwinnable, not even necessarily unfavorable. Just the worst. Houston seemed likely to take a game at Portland while our young players got introduced to playoff basketball. That happened, the Blazers responded, and we are now in a series.

[The Leakers are better, but if we want to win the Western Conference, we have to play the lala-landers sometime anyway. Besides, we match up pretty well against them.]

Houston, however, presents serious challenges to a young team. The Rockets are experienced. They know what they want to do and do it very efficiently. They are primed to make this experience count for more than the Blazers' awesome talent level. The Rockets are ready to win ugly by making the games ugly.

The Rockets thrive on isolations. This exposes mismatches and takes away our strength which is team defense. The Rockets are also a great defensive team. They can choose where they want the ball to go in your offense and those choices will change for game to game.

As experienced as the Rockets are, this series is winnable. Roy alone will win games regardless of what they do to stop them. We will learn their weaknesses and exploit them with our overall superior talent on the offensive end. But to win this series, we need everyone to step up. Our players need to learn more about how to best harness their talent, fully commit, and join together on the court in playing beautiful and efficient Blazer basketball.

Blazers Finish Regular Season #3 in Power Ranking!

LaoTzu — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 09:18:32 -0000

Blazers Finish Regular Season #3 in Power Ranking!

Sprinting to the finish, our Portland Trail Blazers finish above Orlando and Boston, close behind the Leakers and Cleveland.

Trevor Ariza: "I Feared for My Life"

LaoTzu — Sat, 11 Apr 2009 07:39:43 -0000

(AP - Portland) Asked whether the Portland Trail Blazers crowd impacted his game, Trevor Ariza provided a heart felt response: "I feared for my life."

"Those Blazers fans were going crazy from when I was introduced. I couldn't touch the ball or guard anybody, or they were yelling for my head. I got rung up for 4 fouls in 20 minutes. That crowd was all up in the refs' ears."

Ariza was asked if he missed playing major minutes with such important playoff implications on the line. "With Kobe going off on everybody, and Odom flailing around in the key, frankly I was just glad to be hugging the bench most of the night. I'll be glad when I'm on the plane out of here."

Reporters were interested if he knew that he contributed a game worst -17 points differential. Ariza shrugged and provided no comment. When asked what he thought of Rudy's game high +18 in points differential, Ariza drew in his breath, puffed out his chest, and was interrupted by Kurt Rambis. Red-faced after stuttering into his cell phone for the past five minutes trying to get in a word edge-wise, Rambis held his hands over our microphones and said his team was leaving.

When the point differential question was asked of Rudy, he was happy to reply.

"I made Ariza, how you say ... my bitch. "Personal bitch", yes? Is right. Because my teamates play good tonight. We playing better than them, stronger men than those guys. We strong all game through to the end. My teamates, we like bulls. They, not so much. They, maybe they play as cows."

Seeing nods and smiles in the Blazers locker room, and hearing the terms "tremor" and "leakers" bantered about, the team was asked whether they had given thought to retaliation for the Odom foul last year on Roy, the attack on Oden in the first game of the season, and Trevor Ariza's recent flagrant foul on Rudy. Rudy again summed up the Blazers' sentiments: "We men. We just bigger men. So, no."

The Leakers have yet to make much of an impression on the team in Portland.