Dear Readers,

Let me apologize for my absence on the front page.  Oh, you hadn't noticed?  Well, for what it's worth, I just ran the gauntlet of semester finals.  In the last 30 hours I tried a civil case, and sat for a 3 1/2 hour Wills, Trusts, & Estates exam.  The hardwood floor in my apartment is currently littered with highlighter caps, crumpled depositions, ties, cuff links, and textbooks -- stacked three feet high.

My reward for running with the bulls?  I'm now the proud owner of a 32 day vacation, courtesy of the semester system.

I know quite a few of you are waiting to get the final season results for the Obligatory Predictions Competition, and I'd planned full well to come back today after the exam and hammer them out.  But when I walked out of the Journal suite this afternoon for the last time this year, I was struck by the sudden impulse that this day would be best spent doing nothing at all.

I walked to my favorite sushi restaurant, pounded two plates of raw fish, drank four beers, and spent the remainder of the afternoon watching Mythbusters re-runs on my antique Flapper sofa.  Later, I pulled a copy of F. Scott Fitzgerald's The Last Tycoon off the bookshelf, lit a fat Camacho cigar, and breezed through 300 pages.

For my money, it doesn't get much better.

I'll have the competition scored and the final results up Saturday.  The Bowl Edition bracket will be up Monday.

Thanks to Graham, Bama, Jeremy, and the rest of the gang for picking up the slack.

And thanks to you all, for understanding.

P.S. The jury came back 5-3 in our favor.  It's been a hell of a ride.

Hey Ducks Fans,

Congratulations on a great win!  I'm one of the writers over the The Rivalry, Esq., SB Nation's Big Ten Conference Blog.  I just put up an early preview of The Rose Bowl Game.

Here are a few choice excerpts: 

I stayed late at a local Grandview pub to watch the game, and after three Bells winter white ales, my buddy turned to me and declared: "I like this matchup.  It pits strength against strength."  He's referring, of course, to Oregon's spectacular run-spread attack against Ohio State's rock solid 3-4 defense.  I agreed, with slight reservation.  The Buckeye's struggles against the spread offense are well documented.  Oregon State, which boasted the best rushing defense in the Pac 10 coming into the Civil War, gave up 288 yards on the ground to the Ducks.  (They gave up less to Stanford, and its almost-certain-to-be-a-Heisman-finalist tailback Toby Gerhard).

The fact that Ohio State's defense, a unit that's adept at swallowing Big Ten power rushers, will be forced to de-stack the box, and dispatch into space to track a multifaceted (misdirectional) option attack should be cause for concern in Columbus.  Last night, Oregon employed motion Pistol, two-back, and spread sweep sets, along with the bread-and-butter zone read to perfection against the Beavers.

But before you panic, remember, success begins and ends at the line of scrimmage.  To compensate for the strength and depth of Ohio State's defensive line, Oregon will have to count numbers in the box, and hope for favorable blocking angles.  When they get them, they can move on anyone like a hot knife through butter (see versus USC).  When they can't, their attack is as flat as Kansas (see versus Boise State).  If Ohio State's DT's can jam the middle and blow Oregon off the line early, they'll be sitting ducks.

The full preview is here.

Although the majority of selections won't be made until Sunday, it's officially bowl season on The Rivalry, Esq.

Let's inaugurate the fair-weather festivities with an introductory look at The Granddaddy of 'Em All, the 96th Rose Bowl Game.  Having saved its best quarter of play for last, the Oregon Ducks captured the Pac 10 Conference Championship in the cold confines of Autzen Stadium last night, 37-33 over Oregon State.  That means Eugene can finally take its seat at the table with Ohio State, who's been waiting patiently for almost three weeks to learn the name of its adversary.

Strength against Strength? Oregon's Offense versus Ohio State' Defense

I stayed late at a local Grandview pub to watch the game, and after three Bells winter white ales, my buddy turned to me and declared: "I like this matchup.  It pits strength against strength."  He's referring, of course, to Oregon's spectacular run-spread attack against Ohio State's rock solid 3-4 defense.  I agreed, with slight reservation.  The Buckeye's struggles against the spread offense are well documented.  Oregon State, which boasted the best rushing defense in the Pac 10 coming into the Civil War, gave up 288 yards on the ground to the Ducks.  (They gave up less to Stanford, and its almost-certain-to-be-a-Heisman-finalist tailback Toby Gerhart).

Make sure to go back and submit your picks for Week 14 of the Obligatory Predictions Contest. Weekly winners get a chance to write 500 words on the site.

The fact that Ohio State's defense, a unit that's adept at swallowing Big Ten power rushers, will be forced to de-stack the box, and dispatch into space to track a multifaceted (misdirectional) option attack should be cause for concern in Columbus.  Last night, Oregon employed motion Pistol, two-back, and spread sweep sets, along with the bread-and-butter zone read to perfection against the Beavers.

But before you panic, remember, success begins and ends at the line of scrimmage.  To compensate for the strength and depth of Ohio State's defensive line, Oregon will have to count numbers in the box, and hope for favorable blocking angles.  When they get them, they can move on anyone like a hot knife through butter (see versus USC).  When they can't, their attack is as flat as Kansas (see versus Boise State).  If Ohio State's DT's can jam the middle and blow Oregon off the line early, they'll be sitting ducks.

But what about Oregon's lateral speed?  Let me say this.  While the Ducks appear to be sprightly at the receiver, and tailback positions, Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli isn't nearly the speedster that say, Terrelle Pryor is.  Perhaps ironically, (like Oregon State did last night) Ohio State will try to force Masoli outside to limit the damage his powerful size can do north to south, while Oregon will try to force Terrelle Pryor inside to prevent him from skating to 12 yards a carry.

Thanks to the sideline-to-sideline speed injection we've received from Linebacker Brian Rolle, Ohio State is more than capable of keying Masoli and running him down on the edge.  I'm more worried about bottling things up between the tackles.

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So, it all comes down to this.  Seattle Hawkeye leads by a comfortable 12 points.  Like Charlie Weis's late game instructions to his defense to let Stanford score the go ahead touchdown so that the Irish could get the ball back with time on the clock, the smart thing to do here is to go for upset points and hope for the impossible.  If Pitt upsets Cincinnati, Alabama upsets Florida, Clemson upsets Georgia Tech and Seattle Hawkeye does what I expect him to do, and gets more conservative than Jim Tressel with a two touchdown lead, you just might pull it off.

Then again, perhaps you'd rather stick to your gut, and play for second or third place.  After all, if this season continues its annoying upsetless ways, your "balls to the wall" ballot might blow up in your face, dropping you to the second tier of the standings.

On the other hand, what if Seattle Hawkeye anticipates the upset strategy, and hedges his bets by picking an upset or two, and buttoning things up the rest of the way?  Then, it would appear, you're better off following Vegas and playing straight probabilities, hoping his upsets don't materialize and you catch a lucky break in the form of a perfect margin of victory.

For that matter, when should you enter your picks?  Are you brazen enough to show your cards right away, or rather, will you try to snipe the contest eBay-style, publishing your picks mere minutes before Saturday's 11:00 a.m. (EST) deadline?  It's certainly to Seattle Hawkeye's advantage to do so.  But, then (of course) there's the risk of an unforeseen complication (internet outage, memory lapse, alarm clock failure etc.) that results in you missing the deadline.

I can think of at least seven people that wouldn't be too broken up if Seattle Hawkeye didn't show up at all this week.

The winner of the regular season Obligatory Predictions Competition will be announced next week. 

Choose wisely.

1. No. 5 CINCINNATI at No. 15 PITTSBURGH, 12:00 p.m. EST (12/5), ABC

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts CINCINNATI by 10

Cinci sports a monster passing game with a defensive unit shaped like a sieve. Pitt has a two headed monster for a run game, with the turnover prone Bill Stull at quarterback. During the Pitt-WVU game, ESPN showed the Stull family standing on their own private porch about 200 yards from the field of play - according to Lisa Salters, the family was sick of the constant barrage of insults directed at Stull from the Pitt faithful. That doesn't sound like home field advantage to me.

LAW BUCKEYE predicts CINCINNATI by 10

On December 1st, 2007 No. 2 West Virginia faced unranked Pittsburgh as 28 point favorites, with a bid to the national championship game on the line.  Pat White injured his thumb, the Panthers ran the ball out the back of their own endzone (taking the clock with it), and two weeks later Rich Rodriguez belonged to Michigan.  True, even with a victory, Cincinnati wil need some unlikely assistance to climb unto the BCS National Championship Game.  But the stakes in this one feel errily similar to that cold December night in Morgantown.

Pittsburgh revealed some schematic chinks in its armor in last's week's loss to West Virginia, particularly quarterback Bill Stull's overall decision making.  The Panther's rushing attack, led by Freshman Dion Lewis, finds success early, but the long, laborious marching is overshadowed out by a simple truth: no one has figured out how to slow Cincinnati down on offense.

2. FRESNO STATE vs. ILLINOIS, 12:30 p.m. EST (12/5), Big Ten Network

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts FRESNO STATE by 7

Balanced Bulldogs versus revitalized Juice Williams in his final game. This game has points written all over it. FSU gets an early lead behind their balanced attack and hangs on.

LAW BUCKEYE predicts ILLINOIS by 10

It took 9 weeks, but the Illini finally found an offense against Cincinnati.  Nice going Ron.  Keep it up!

Continue reading this post »

Here are the results down the stretch. Please congratulate Week 13 winner RossWB, who returned from exile with a vengence.  Remember, this upcoming week represents the final picks for the regular season.  We'll have the games up tomorrow morning.

More photos » by Sue Ogrocki - AP

13 days ago: Oklahoma wide receiver Ryan Broyles, left, moves past Oklahoma State linebacker Justin Gent, right, at the start of his 87-yard punt return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter of an NCAA college football game in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Nov. 28, 2009. (AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki)

Browse more photos »

Some pundits were quick to declare the Big Ten the big winner, after Oklahoma State was slain Saturday at the hands of in state rival Oklahoma.  And why not?  The Cowboy's loss all but guarantees the league will place a second at large team in the BCS, netting the conference an extra $4.5 million bonus atop its usual $17.5 million dollar championship series payout.  Bowl proceeds are split evenly amongst the 11 member institutions, meaning athletic directors from Madison to Bloomington can rejoice at the prospect of an extra $409,000 allowance.

The problem is there's no free lunch.  By winning the earnings battle, we're losing the war of national respect.  How so?  Even if the Big Ten wins both its presumptive BCS bowls (Rose, Fiesta) in 2009, the conference is still likely to have a losing (3-4) bowl season.  We could just as easily go 1-6 in bowls for the second year in a row. 

On the other hand, if the Big Ten had just one BCS bowl participant (like most other conferences), the same teams would have a great chance of going (5-2) in bowls.  How is that possible?  Read on.

It's Lonely on Top

Since the inception of the BCS in 1998, The Big Ten has had two representatives in BCS bowls eight times in eleven seasons.  By comparsion, the SEC has done it six times, the Big 12 five times, and the Pac 10 just once.  Neither the ACC or the Big East have ever sent two teams to the BCS.

Read that again.  Add in the unparalleled revenues from its own television network, and it's no surprise that the Big Ten remains the richest, most powerful conference college football has ever known.

But the bottom line isn't the only line in a competitive context.  Fans care a lot more about the goal line.  In that department, the league's struggles are well documented.  Of the eight seasons the Big Ten has sent two teams to the big dance, both have won just three times.

While that might not be so bad by itself, there's another consequence to double dipping: our non-BCS bowl matchups suffer.

Continue reading this post »

(Editor's Note: Never ones to welch, we present for your approval the musings of a real winner.  Having defeated us as our own predictions play this fan has earned the right to hijack the main page of The Rivalry, Esq. for his own purposes: in 500 words or less.  Want to be our next guest contributor?  Stay tuned for our Week 13 Obligatory Predictions Competition.)

The Big Tent Conference: Fixing the Big Ten's Image Problem Via Expansion

By LAKEERIEMONSTAR

Week 11 Obligatory Predictions Winner and Special Guest Contributor to The Rivalry, Esq.

As a Buckeye fan sitting in the Michigan alumni section for Saturday's hatefest between these two traditional Big Ten powers, you can imagine some of the colorful things I heard (Graham wrote about a few of them here). One in particular got me thinking, though: as the seconds ticked away on Ohio State's 6th consecutive victory over Michigan and 5th straight Big Ten title, a Michigan fan turned to me and sneered, "Have fun getting your butt kicked by the Pac-10 and embarrassing us in the BCS again."

This Week's Articles

JerDogg finally admits that Minnesota just ain't that good.

Graham ranks the Big Ten quarterbacks for their 2009 performance.

Greg discusses the future of Tate Forcier and moving Denard Robinson to WR.

LB argues that two BCS teams from the Big Ten will doom our conference rep again.

It's no secret that Ohio State's recent struggles against Top Five opponents and the slide of the Michigan program into mediocrity have damaged the image of our beloved conference nationally. What's more surprising is the "little man syndrome" we seem to be experiencing internally: while we talk a big game, too often it feels like our conference pride is overcompensating for something.

Fortunately for us, there's a way out, a way to return our national reputation to the halcyon days of Woody and Bo, JoePa and Nile Kinnick.

We can expand the Big Ten.

Clearly, this isn't a revolutionary thought. According to the always trustworthy Wikipedia, no less than 12 teams have recently been discussed in the press or amongst fans as potential additions (including the laughable prospect of a Big Ten-Nebraska alliance). TRE has looked at expansion, and SBN partner Crimson Quarry has gone into great depth on the topic.

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After much adieu, here is your Week 12 Scoreboard, current through November 21st.  Congratulations to back-to-back weekly winner Lakeeriemonstar who moves into second place with a second-consecutive triumph.  

This week's (Week 13) predictions will be scored on schedule, by the middle of next week.  Thanks for your patience.

Welcome to our Thanksgiving holiday edition of the OPC.  Turkey, cranberry sauce, and corn muffins won't be the only things you stuff your face with over the next several days.  This weekend is positively jammed packed with college games.  Loosen your belt, sink into a soft recliner, and load up on these historic, hot button matchups.

Before we get started, one quick note.  This week, and next week will be the final editions of our regular season predictions.  After the championship games on December 5th, we'll crown a season winner.  But don't fret.  The following week we'll start anew, with The Obligatory Predictions Competition Bowl Edition.  You'll have the chance to pick all 35 bowls at once, in a winner take all format.  So if you didn't wipe the floor with your season picks, consider this a second chance.

Remember to get your picks in by 11:00 a.m. Friday!

1. ILLINOIS at No. 5 CINCINNATI, 12:00 p.m. EST (11/27), ABC

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts CINCINNATI by 17

This game is a referendum on one coach's ability to create a successful offensive gameplan…and one coach's inability to draw any cohesiveness from his offensive squad. Hot Seat Coach in this game: Zook!

LAW BUCKEYE predicts CINCINNATI by 14

Yes, there's a small part of me that thinks the Illini might get a landmark upset that salvages their shipwrecked season.  I thought the same thing before Illinois met Missouri in St. Louis for the season opener in 2008.  Not even close.  The Illini will overplay the pass, allowing Cincinnati to showcase its ability to run.  Tony Pike struggles early, but rebounds to slice and dice the 89th worse defense in the FBS.  My bet is this game is bad enough by 2:30 p.m. that you'll be ready to turn the dial to:

2. No. 2 ALABAMA at AUBURN, 2:30 p.m. EST (11/27), CBS

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts ALABAMA by 14

A lack of good offensives in the SEC plus a stingy ‘Bama D equals 10 ppg allowed. ‘Bama hasn’t seen an offense like Auburn’s, but I doubt that these NFL-caliber defenders will lose sleep over Chizik’s misdirection.

LAW BUCKEYE predicts ALABAMA by 7

It's easy to forget in the wake of last year's 36-0 Alabama win, that the modern Iron Bowl has belonged to Auburn.  Prior to being embarassed last year, the Tigers had seized the in-state showdown six years in a row.  I like the physical chemistry of this matchup: Alabama's brute force against Auburn's speedy spread.  The nation's No. 1 (Alabama's Mark Ingram) and No. 3 (Auburn's Ben Tate) rushers will be on display Saturday in a game that I suspect will lock up early.  Alabama pushes and pulls its way to Atlanta with a perfect record.

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