SB Nation User Blog: Law Buckeye

Ranking the Big Ten Bowls by Difficulty

Law Buckeye — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 13:21:07 -0000

It appears the mainstream consensus is that the Big Ten will suffer another disastrous bowl season. Just yesterday, ESPN's Pat Forde predicted we would match last year's 1-6 performance. A single win is a long way away from the four wins necessary to escape with a winning record. That got me thinking, just how high of a mountain do we have to climb? Let's look at how the seven bowls stack up against each other in degree of difficulty (easiest to hardest), and the likelihood of a Big Ten win in each one.

Don't forget to go back and submit your Bowl Prediction sheet for another chance to win a prize. For winning the regular season OPC, Seattle Hawkeye won...a hat. You may win...something cooler. Hardest bowls to pick so far are Stanford-Oklahoma and PSU-LSU.

7. Insight Bowl (Minnesota v. Iowa State) December 31st, Tempe, AZ

It's hard to get excited about two 6-6 squads going mano a mano on the NFL Network. It's also hard for Minnesota fans to shake the stigma that Purdue would have been a better Big Ten representative on the national stage. Although the Golden Gopher's offense is sometimes been less visible than the Emperor's New Clothes, Iowa State is the epitome of mediocre. It ranked 8th in the Big 12 in total offense, and 11th in total defense during the regular season. Minnesota ranked last in the Big 10 in total offense, but finished sixth in defense. Sadly, I think this is the Big Ten's "easiest" matchup.

Big Ten's Chances of a Win: 70%

6. Champs Sports Bowl (Wisconsin v. Miami) December 29th, Orlando, FL

Four games into the season it looked the "The U" had restored its swagger and was predestined to win the ACC. The Canes held Georgia Tech to 95 rushing yards, before giving up 287 to Virginia Tech. Wisconsin's offense is beautifully balanced (206 ypg rushing, 209 ypg passing), which makes me think they can do to Miami what they couldn't do to Florida State last year: sustain consistent drives. The potential for John Clay to run downhill makes this game the second most manageable for the Big Ten.

Big Ten's Chances of a Win: 55%

5. Capital One Bowl (Penn State v. LSU) January 1st, Orlando, FL

Although neither team has a quality win, I have to give a slight edge to Penn State here because of its defense. On the other hand, LSU has swapped helmet paint with a tougher slate of opponents, and might be battle tested. It's clear that Les Miles has had issues focusing this team, and the pressure on him to win might compromise his preparations.

Big Ten's Chances of a Win: 52%

4. Outback Bowl (Northwestern v. Auburn) January 1st, Tampa, FL

Northwestern's defense has had plenty of opportunities to prepare for the spread. They also have a more than functional offense, and a coach that's as meticulous as anyone in his preparations. Auburn's defense has been MIA since August. Still, the Tigers led No. 1 Alabama for three and a half quarters, and if their performance in the Outback Bowl comes anywhere close to matching that effort, Northwestern gets bruised.

Big Ten's Chances of a Win: 45%

3. Fed Ex Orange Bowl (Iowa v. Georgia Tech) January 5th, Miami, FL

Some people might be surprised to see me place a BCS bowl in the middle of the rankings, but I think Iowa matches up nicely against the Yellow Jackets. If the Hawk's come up with a defense that contends with Tech's vaunted triple option (and that's a big "if"), the physicality of Iowa's offensive line can steal the show. I've got faith in you, Norm Parker.

Big Ten's Chances of a Win: 44%

2. Rose Bowl Game Presented by Citi (Ohio State v. Oregon) January 1st, Pasadena, CA

All eyes will be on Pasadena when the unstoppable Oregon Ducks meet the immovable Ohio State Buckeyes. But beneath the strength-versus-strength storyline there's the reality that Ohio State might not be able to finish drives against a surprisingly fast Oregon defense. So, the Buckeyes move the ball 60 yards and stall. What about Oregon? They'll be forced to to punt or settle for field goals through three and a half quarters. The difference here, is Oregon's quick-strike capability A few missed tackles in space and the Ducks can put the game out of reach. Moreover they score on any play. Ohio State can't.

Big Ten's Chances of a Win: 40%

1. Valero Alamo Bowl (Michigan State v. Texas Tech) January 2nd, San Antonio, TX

Michigan State's porous secondary spelled disaster against the Red Air-Raiders, and that was before Mark Dantonio suspended eight players. Without receivers Mark Dell and B.J. Cunningham, and defensive back Chris L. Rucker, the deck is stacked against the Spartans.

Big Ten's Chances of a Win: 25%

Ohio State/Oregon: A Series History

Law Buckeye — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 13:12:48 -0000

Winston Churchill famously said that "Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it." In the case of Ohio State/Oregon that's just fine with me. After all, the Buckeyes lead the overall series 7-0, earning wins in 1958, 1961, 1962, 1967, 1968, 1983, and 1987. But before you declare that ignorance is bliss, light up a Montecristo No. 4, and go for an afternoon walk down New Bond Street in London's West End, consider another kind of history: bowl history.

Looking for a bit more contemporary coverage?
Check out my early preview of the Rose Bowl Game.

Ohio State is currently the paper tiger of the BCS, having dropped three marquee games in a row. Along with its infamous softness against premiere competition, the Bucks have barely broken even (6-6) in the Grandaddy of Em' All.

Superstitions aside, Before the Bucks and the Ducks meet for the eighth time on January 1st, let's look at a lopsided series history, and see what we can learn from it.

Oregon's Frank Kremblas blocks for Don Clark

January 1st, 1958 (@ Pasadena, CA)

Although the No. 1 Buckeyes beat Oregon 10-7 in the 1958 Rose Bowl, it was the later who carried their coach, Len Casanova, off the field. After all, Oregon entered the game as a 19 point underdog to the No. 1 Buckeyes, and stood up to the scarlet, ending the game with more yards of offense, and more first downs. Oregon never punted. Ultimately, the difference in the game was two turnovers, and two kicks from 34 yards — a miss, by Oregon’s Jack Morris, and a make, early in the fourth quarter, by Ohio State’s Don Sutherin. As the Los Angeles Examiner noted, "Ohio State won the football game, but scrappy little Oregon won all the other honors in yesterday’s thrilling Rose Bowl classic, including the lasting respect of those who came to scoff."

Ohio State, of course, was voted National Champions by the FWAA, UPI, and AP polls.

November 18th, 1961 (@ Columbus, OH)

Astonishingly little information exists about the 1961 matchup, except for the final score (OSU 22, OU 12), the team rosters, and the above photograph. What we do know is that the Buckeyes were offensive juggernauts in 1961, led by quarterback Joe Sparma (who was later a pitcher for the Detroit Tigers), fullback Bob Ferguson, Maxwell Award winner and Heisman runner-up to Ernie Davis, and the sophomore halfback tandem of Paul Warfield and Matt Snell. Two first-round NFL picks (Bob Vogel and Darryl Sanders) led the offensive line at tackle. As one historian reports, "The defense wasn't as heralded as the offense, but it was fast, aggressive, and smart, led by linebacker Gary Moeller, later the head coach at the University of Michigan."

Ohio State's victory was of little surprise since it had already strong-armed eventual Pacific Eight Conference Champion UCLA. Interestingly, this was the season that the Ohio State University faculty council voted to turn down the Rose Bowl invitation. The faculty was concerned, "that football was becoming too big at Ohio State; that it was superseding the true mission of the school, and something had to be done to put the program in its proper place."

Yeah, that worked.

November 17, 1962 (@ Columbus, OH)

The following year saw Oregon again travel to the Horseshoe in late-November to face the Buckeyes. The fact that the Ducks were forced to make the trip across the country two years in a row, without a reciprocal requirement for Ohio State to travel to Eugene, shows the historical disparity in influence between the programs. The scarlet won in an even more convincing fashion than the previous year, coasting to a 26-7 victory in front of the home town crowd.

October 7, 1967 (@ Eugene, OR)

Although Oregon earned home field advantage in game four, the results were predictably patronizing. Coming off a loss to Arizona, the Buckeyes -- led by future NFLer Dick Himes -- rolled at Autzen 30-0.

October 5, 1968 (@ Columbus, OH)

The series returned home the following season, where arguably the finest team in Ohio State history dominated Oregon 21-6. The Buckeyes boasted 11 All Americans and 6 first round NFL draft picks. Quarterback Rex Kern and running back Jim Otis would go on to lead the undefeated Buckeyes to a come-from-behind 27-16 Rose Bowl victory over the USC Trojans and the national title.

It would be fifteen years before the programs met again.

September 10, 1983 (@ Columbus, OH)

A low powered Oregon offense again suffered a commanding 31-6 loss to the scarlet, who went on to beat Pitt in the Fiesta Bowl.

September 19, 1987 (@ Columbus, OH)

The most recent game in the series is marked by a third quarter Ohio State rally that saw Vince Workman rush for 162 yards and a touchdown, and quarterback Tom Tupa pass for two touchdowns in one minute fourteen seconds. Ohio State pounded Oregon on the ground, racking up 201 yards rushing, and 435 total yards in a 24-14 victory.

Which brings us back to the present...

What can we learn from seven, largely uncompetitive matchups? Well, first, it's clear that Ohio State has been the favorite in every game before this one. That's no surprise. After all, Oregon hasn't had the most storied football tradition until recently. Throw in the fact that five of the seven games were played during the two most dominant decades (1950s, 1960s) in Ohio State history, and that Oregon twice lined up against future national champions, and it's no surprise we've seen a lame duck series.

Each of Ohio State's predecessors have brought a solid offense to the table. With the exception of the 1958 Rose Bowl, Oregon did not. How bad were these Oregon offenses? Well, in 1983 the Ducks famously tied their in-state rivals (Oregon State) 0-0 in the Civil War. It was the last time an NCAA Division 1 game ended in a scoreless tie.

Sure, Oregon only kept things competitive twice, in 1958, and 1987. But the one time they showed up with a unique attack -- the aforementioned Rose Bowl -- they caught Ohio State off guard.

If history tells us one thing it's just how close this Rose Bowl Game will be. The 2009 Buckeyes lack the high powered attack the 1967, 1968, 1983, and 1987 teams took for granted. They do however, have a line that can dominate like the 1961 team's did -- when our boys come to play. Oregon, meanwhile, will bring the fireworks this time around.

Is it finally the Duck's turn to light up the scoreboard?

The Obligatory Predictions Competition - Bowl Edition

Law Buckeye — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 19:44:05 -0000

Welcome to the second annual Obligatory Predictions Competition - Bowl Edition. As the holidays beckon, and the last remaining vestiges of fall become frozen in impenetrable permafrost, it's time we Midwesterners fly south for the season. Pull out your plaid swimming trunks, Hawaiian Tropic bronzer, and sear sucker shorts -- it's time to go bowling.

Yes, teams from the Big Ten will soon be dispatched on fair weather flyways to Miami, Orlando, Phoenix, and Los Angeles and if you have half a brain you'll be going with them. But before bidding bon voyage, take a second to tell us how you think all 34 bowl games will turn out. Your predictions will be scored against one another, and our resident "experts."

Wanna play? Here's how to get in on the action:

Step 1: Download the official OPC Bowl Bracket.

Step 2: Fill in a winner and margin of victory for all 34 bowls.

Step 3: Save the document as your SB Nation User ID (e.g. "Law Buckeye.doc").

Step 4: E-Mail your bracket to Franz.50@osu.edu no later than Saturday, December 19th at 12:00 p.m. (EST).

Your picks will be scored as follows:

One (1) point is earned for a correctly picking the winning team.
If you pick the winning team, earn an additional two (2) points for correctly identifying the winning spread by seven points or less.
If you pick the winning team, earn an additional two (2) points for picking a perfect spread (i.e. The PATERNOSGRANDDAUGHTER Bonus).
Two (2) bonus points are awarded for the "upset pick" -- an upset being defined as predicting: 1. Any AP/BCS Top 25 ranked team to defeat any opponent of higher rank, which in fact does occur, or 2. Any non-ranked AP/BCS Top 25 team to defeat any ranked opponent, which in fact does occur.

We'll release score updates throughout bowl season, so you can check your stock. In the meantime, safe travels. And don't forget to get your picks in by this Saturday (December 19th).

Good luck!

The Obligatory Predictions Competition - Final Scoreboard

Law Buckeye — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 16:38:30 -0000

After 14 weeks, and 70 picks the winner of the Regular Season Obligatory Predictions Competition with 148 points is...

SeattleHawkeye

As a small token of our appreciation, Seattle gets this sweet Nike Orange Bowl Bound cap from the SB Nation Fan Shop, perfect for rainy morning walks in the Emerald City.

(Seattle, please e-mail me at Franz.50@osu.edu with your mailing address, and we'll get the goods to you).

As for the rest of us, the final season scoreboard is below. Honorable mentions go to our very own hmlee (Runner Up, 135 points), and Lakeeriemonstar (Third Place, 133 points).

Think you can do better? Want to go double or nothing? Lucky for you, we're just getting started. Stay tuned for the Obligatory Predictions Competition - Bowl Edition. Starting Monday you'll have the chance to pick all 34 bowls at once, in a comprehensive winner-take-all melee. We hope to see you back on the wagon.

Thanks to everyone for making this year's competition the biggest we've had!

Season Rank	User ID	Week 14 Total Points	Week 14 Rank	Season Total Points
1	Seattle Hawkeye	13	T-1	148
2	hmlee	13	T-1	136
3	Lakeeriemonstar	10	3	133
4	Law Buckeye	8	T-5	128
5	Grahamfiller10	8	T-5	127
6	Chitownhawkeye	8	T-5	125
7	Burncrusin	5	8	121
8	Bama Hawkeye	11	T-2	118
9	txhawkeye	9	T-4	114
T-10	PaternosGrandaughter	8	T-5	113
T-10	ChiSpartan	11	T-2	113
11	Imadirtyoldman	11	T-2	111
12	SpartanDan	6	T-7	102
13	Recoveringfratguy	6	T-7	95
14	RossWB	7	6	89
15	Estrada	9	T-4	87
16	Hoosierdaddynow	0	N/A	86
17	Wad	0	N/A	79
18	Bstylin Hawkye	6	T-7	6

From Out of the Ashes

Law Buckeye — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 04:25:05 -0000

Dear Readers,

Let me apologize for my absence on the front page. Oh, you hadn't noticed? Well, for what it's worth, I just ran the gauntlet of semester finals. In the last 30 hours I tried a civil case, and sat for a 3 1/2 hour Wills, Trusts, & Estates exam. The hardwood floor in my apartment is currently littered with highlighter caps, crumpled depositions, ties, cuff links, and textbooks -- stacked three feet high.

My reward for running with the bulls? I'm now the proud owner of a 32 day vacation, courtesy of the semester system.

I know quite a few of you are waiting to get the final season results for the Obligatory Predictions Competition, and I'd planned full well to come back today after the exam and hammer them out. But when I walked out of the Journal suite this afternoon for the last time this year, I was struck by the sudden impulse that this day would be best spent doing nothing at all.

I walked to my favorite sushi restaurant, pounded two plates of raw fish, drank four beers, and spent the remainder of the afternoon watching Mythbusters re-runs on my antique Flapper sofa. Later, I pulled a copy of F. Scott Fitzgerald's The Last Tycoon off the bookshelf, lit a fat Camacho cigar, and breezed through 300 pages.

For my money, it doesn't get much better.

I'll have the competition scored and the final results up Saturday. The Bowl Edition bracket will be up Monday.

Thanks to Graham, Bama, Jeremy, and the rest of the gang for picking up the slack.

And thanks to you all, for understanding.

P.S. The jury came back 5-3 in our favor. It's been a hell of a ride.

An Early Look at the Rose Bowl

Law Buckeye — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 17:57:27 -0000

Hey Ducks Fans,

Congratulations on a great win! I'm one of the writers over the The Rivalry, Esq., SB Nation's Big Ten Conference Blog. I just put up an early preview of The Rose Bowl Game.

Here are a few choice excerpts:

I stayed late at a local Grandview pub to watch the game, and after three Bells winter white ales, my buddy turned to me and declared: "I like this matchup. It pits strength against strength." He's referring, of course, to Oregon's spectacular run-spread attack against Ohio State's rock solid 3-4 defense. I agreed, with slight reservation. The Buckeye's struggles against the spread offense are well documented. Oregon State, which boasted the best rushing defense in the Pac 10 coming into the Civil War, gave up 288 yards on the ground to the Ducks. (They gave up less to Stanford, and its almost-certain-to-be-a-Heisman-finalist tailback Toby Gerhard).

The fact that Ohio State's defense, a unit that's adept at swallowing Big Ten power rushers, will be forced to de-stack the box, and dispatch into space to track a multifaceted (misdirectional) option attack should be cause for concern in Columbus. Last night, Oregon employed motion Pistol, two-back, and spread sweep sets, along with the bread-and-butter zone read to perfection against the Beavers.

But before you panic, remember, success begins and ends at the line of scrimmage. To compensate for the strength and depth of Ohio State's defensive line, Oregon will have to count numbers in the box, and hope for favorable blocking angles. When they get them, they can move on anyone like a hot knife through butter (see versus USC). When they can't, their attack is as flat as Kansas (see versus Boise State). If Ohio State's DT's can jam the middle and blow Oregon off the line early, they'll be sitting ducks.

The full preview is here.

The Rose Bowl Game - An Early Look

Law Buckeye — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 17:41:54 -0000

Although the majority of selections won't be made until Sunday, it's officially bowl season on The Rivalry, Esq.

Let's inaugurate the fair-weather festivities with an introductory look at The Granddaddy of 'Em All, the 96th Rose Bowl Game. Having saved its best quarter of play for last, the Oregon Ducks captured the Pac 10 Conference Championship in the cold confines of Autzen Stadium last night, 37-33 over Oregon State. That means Eugene can finally take its seat at the table with Ohio State, who's been waiting patiently for almost three weeks to learn the name of its adversary.

Strength against Strength? Oregon's Offense versus Ohio State' Defense

I stayed late at a local Grandview pub to watch the game, and after three Bells winter white ales, my buddy turned to me and declared: "I like this matchup. It pits strength against strength." He's referring, of course, to Oregon's spectacular run-spread attack against Ohio State's rock solid 3-4 defense. I agreed, with slight reservation. The Buckeye's struggles against the spread offense are well documented. Oregon State, which boasted the best rushing defense in the Pac 10 coming into the Civil War, gave up 288 yards on the ground to the Ducks. (They gave up less to Stanford, and its almost-certain-to-be-a-Heisman-finalist tailback Toby Gerhart).

Make sure to go back and submit your picks for Week 14 of the Obligatory Predictions Contest. Weekly winners get a chance to write 500 words on the site.

The fact that Ohio State's defense, a unit that's adept at swallowing Big Ten power rushers, will be forced to de-stack the box, and dispatch into space to track a multifaceted (misdirectional) option attack should be cause for concern in Columbus. Last night, Oregon employed motion Pistol, two-back, and spread sweep sets, along with the bread-and-butter zone read to perfection against the Beavers.

But before you panic, remember, success begins and ends at the line of scrimmage. To compensate for the strength and depth of Ohio State's defensive line, Oregon will have to count numbers in the box, and hope for favorable blocking angles. When they get them, they can move on anyone like a hot knife through butter (see versus USC). When they can't, their attack is as flat as Kansas (see versus Boise State). If Ohio State's DT's can jam the middle and blow Oregon off the line early, they'll be sitting ducks.

But what about Oregon's lateral speed? Let me say this. While the Ducks appear to be sprightly at the receiver, and tailback positions, Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli isn't nearly the speedster that say, Terrelle Pryor is. Perhaps ironically, (like Oregon State did last night) Ohio State will try to force Masoli outside to limit the damage his powerful size can do north to south, while Oregon will try to force Terrelle Pryor inside to prevent him from skating to 12 yards a carry.

Thanks to the sideline-to-sideline speed injection we've received from Linebacker Brian Rolle, Ohio State is more than capable of keying Masoli and running him down on the edge. I'm more worried about bottling things up between the tackles.

How Bend But Not Break Comes into Play

Anyone who fears the return of Slow-Hi-O against the spread should remember the job Jim Heacock did against the Texas Longhorns in last year's Fiesta Bowl. A Longhorn team that was averaging some 43.9 points a game coming into Glendale was held to just 3 in the first half, and 24 overall. But the final total disguises the fact the Colt McCoy walked away from the game with his usual prodigious stats (41 of 59 for 414 yards).

Magic? Nope. Bend and not break.

Expect to see Oregon rack up a pile of yards on quick outs, and quick slants early on in drives as they march unimpeded down the field. But the closer they get to the goal, the tighter our corners cover, and a pass that Masoli could comfortably place three downs before, is suddenly jumped for a Pick 6. Ohio State has three players (Kurt Coleman, Ross Homan, and Anderson Russel) that rank in the Top 10 in conference for interceptions. Expect them to single-handedly mitigate big Oregon drives.

Thus, the early keys to the game:

Oregon Offense

Stunt to achieve favorable blocking angles.
Don't worry about going down the field early, keep the passing game short
Finish what you start.

Ohio State Defense

Win at the line.
Flush Masoil outside.
Bend, but don't break.

Poll

Who Wins the 2009 Rose Bowl Game?

Ohio State

248 votes

Oregon

648 votes

896 votes | Poll has closed

The Obligatory Predictions Competition - Week 14

Law Buckeye — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 16:08:03 -0000

So, it all comes down to this. Seattle Hawkeye leads by a comfortable 12 points. Like Charlie Weis's late game instructions to his defense to let Stanford score the go ahead touchdown so that the Irish could get the ball back with time on the clock, the smart thing to do here is to go for upset points and hope for the impossible. If Pitt upsets Cincinnati, Alabama upsets Florida, Clemson upsets Georgia Tech and Seattle Hawkeye does what I expect him to do, and gets more conservative than Jim Tressel with a two touchdown lead, you just might pull it off.

Then again, perhaps you'd rather stick to your gut, and play for second or third place. After all, if this season continues its annoying upsetless ways, your "balls to the wall" ballot might blow up in your face, dropping you to the second tier of the standings.

On the other hand, what if Seattle Hawkeye anticipates the upset strategy, and hedges his bets by picking an upset or two, and buttoning things up the rest of the way? Then, it would appear, you're better off following Vegas and playing straight probabilities, hoping his upsets don't materialize and you catch a lucky break in the form of a perfect margin of victory.

For that matter, when should you enter your picks? Are you brazen enough to show your cards right away, or rather, will you try to snipe the contest eBay-style, publishing your picks mere minutes before Saturday's 11:00 a.m. (EST) deadline? It's certainly to Seattle Hawkeye's advantage to do so. But, then (of course) there's the risk of an unforeseen complication (internet outage, memory lapse, alarm clock failure etc.) that results in you missing the deadline.

I can think of at least seven people that wouldn't be too broken up if Seattle Hawkeye didn't show up at all this week.

The winner of the regular season Obligatory Predictions Competition will be announced next week.

Choose wisely.

1. No. 5 CINCINNATI at No. 15 PITTSBURGH, 12:00 p.m. EST (12/5), ABC

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts CINCINNATI by 10

Cinci sports a monster passing game with a defensive unit shaped like a sieve. Pitt has a two headed monster for a run game, with the turnover prone Bill Stull at quarterback. During the Pitt-WVU game, ESPN showed the Stull family standing on their own private porch about 200 yards from the field of play - according to Lisa Salters, the family was sick of the constant barrage of insults directed at Stull from the Pitt faithful. That doesn't sound like home field advantage to me.

LAW BUCKEYE predicts CINCINNATI by 10

On December 1st, 2007 No. 2 West Virginia faced unranked Pittsburgh as 28 point favorites, with a bid to the national championship game on the line. Pat White injured his thumb, the Panthers ran the ball out the back of their own endzone (taking the clock with it), and two weeks later Rich Rodriguez belonged to Michigan. True, even with a victory, Cincinnati wil need some unlikely assistance to climb unto the BCS National Championship Game. But the stakes in this one feel errily similar to that cold December night in Morgantown.

Pittsburgh revealed some schematic chinks in its armor in last's week's loss to West Virginia, particularly quarterback Bill Stull's overall decision making. The Panther's rushing attack, led by Freshman Dion Lewis, finds success early, but the long, laborious marching is overshadowed out by a simple truth: no one has figured out how to slow Cincinnati down on offense.

2. FRESNO STATE vs. ILLINOIS, 12:30 p.m. EST (12/5), Big Ten Network

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts FRESNO STATE by 7

Balanced Bulldogs versus revitalized Juice Williams in his final game. This game has points written all over it. FSU gets an early lead behind their balanced attack and hangs on.

LAW BUCKEYE predicts ILLINOIS by 10

It took 9 weeks, but the Illini finally found an offense against Cincinnati. Nice going Ron. Keep it up!

2. THE SEC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME, No. 1 FLORIDA vs. No. 2 ALABAMA, 4:00 p.m. EST (12/5), CBS

GRAHAMFILLER 10 predicts FLORIDA by 7

The two best defenses in the country match up while CBS explodes into little bitty pieces out of sheer excitement. Verne Lundquist climaxes 13 times before kickoff before smoking a cigarette and taking a nap through the first half. Tebow leads a FG drive early, using his superpowers to gain the skills of Bo Jackson from Tecmo bowl, Jesus, and Tweeter from Varsity Blues. Alabama comes back quickly with a field goal, their players feeling relaxed from not attending a single class the entire semester. Urban Meyer's ingenious playcalling peaks with a triple reverse touchdown run by Demps, who gets three key blocks from Brandon Spikes, and by blocks I mean he literally kills three Alabama tacklers using broken beer bottles and a whipsaw. Lundquist wakes up again, sees the blood and excitement, climaxes again and falls asleep. Florida leads by 7 with a minute remaining but the game is canceled because, in a shocker, Nick Saban takes the Notre Dame head coaching position, stating that "42 million a year is what it's all about, not championships, or golden buildings."

LAW BUCKEYE predicts ALABAMA by 7

The "re-match" quality of the game of the regular season, does a disservice to the Crimson Tide who are a heck of a lot better now than they were a year ago. Sure, Auburn played them close. How many teams did that to Florida? (Tennessee, LSU, Arkansas, Mississippi State...)

As if suspended DE Carlos Dunlap needed another reason not to drive drink, it's the one he'll learn standing on the sidelines watching Greg McElroy take advantage of the precious extra seconds he gains in the pocket to find Julio Jones on deep routes. Jones, a Freshman force who slipped off the radar for parts of this season, is peaking at just the right time.

But what about Tebow? I think he plays marvelous, but just like his scripted hero "jump pass" that fell incomplete last week in Gainesville, a career full of superlatives falls short just once. Everyone's human, after all.

3. DR. PEPPER BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME, No. 3 TEXAS vs. No. 22 NEBRASKA, 8:00 p.m. EST (12/5), ABC

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts TEXAS by 17

Nebraska's surprisingly stout defense (4th in the nation in scoring defense) does a great job stopping the run. Texas, with their uber-effective passing offense, will sacrifice the run and settle for 400 yards passing and a trip to the title game.

LAW BUCKEYE predicts TEXAS by 17

Move on folks, nothing to see here. To the extent it's been said at length, I won't make this entire blurb about how the Big Twelve North is a spineless aberration. I will say that we've seen the Longhorns struggle for the last time -- on Thanksgiving night against Texas A&M -- on their way into the clubhouse. Nebraska's interior line might give Colt McCoy a few close shaves, but that won't help the Huskers run or pass against a refreshingly unsinkable Big Twelve Defense.

5. DR. PEPPER ACC FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP, No. 10 GEORGIA TECH vs. CLEMSON, 8:00 p.m. EST (12/5), ESPN

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts GEORGIA TECH by 10

Vegas has no idea what's going to happen here, as these two teams played basically to a draw way back in September. We know Clemson is streaky, we know CJ Spiller is faster than God...but we don't know if the triple option can be slowed. Last time they played, GT rolled out a bunch of long runs early, Clemson adjusted and began stopping the pitch, GT adjusted to QB keepers on almost every play...And eventually the Jellow Yackets came away with a win. This is the 2nd best game of the weekend, no question.

LAW BUCKEYE predicts GEORGIA TECH by 10

There's a reason why this game is airing at 8:00 p.m. and not 3:30 p.m., and it has nothing to do with prominence. Both teams suffered humilitating losses last week to in-state underlings. Georgia Tech re-establishes its offensive cohesiveness, and sticks with what works: the run.

The Obligatory Predictions Competition - Week 13 Scoreboard

Law Buckeye — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 14:50:18 -0000

Here are the results down the stretch. Please congratulate Week 13 winner RossWB, who returned from exile with a vengence. Remember, this upcoming week represents the final picks for the regular season. We'll have the games up tomorrow morning.

Season Rank	User ID	Week 13 Total Points	Week 13 Rank	Season Total Points
1	Seattle Hawkeye	12	T-2	135
T-2	hmlee	12	T-2	123
T-2	Lakeeriemonstar	12	T-2	123
3	Law Buckeye	12	T-2	120
4	Grahamfiller10	10	T-4	119
5	Chitownhawkeye	12	T-2	117
6	Burncrusin	12	T-2	116
7	Bama Hawkeye	9	5	107
T-8	txhawkeye	8	4	105
T-8	PaternosGrandaughter	12	T-2	105
9	ChiSpartan	8	T-6	102
10	Imadirtyoldman	8	T-6	100
11	SpartanDan	11	3	96
12	Recoveringfratguy	6	7	89
13	Hoosierdaddynow	0	N/A	86
14	RossWB	14	1	82
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18	Mil Card Fan	0	N/A	4

Out of Our League - Why Two in the BCS Does the Big Ten No Favors

Law Buckeye — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 03:11:50 -0000

More photos » by Sue Ogrocki - AP

21 days ago: Oklahoma wide receiver Ryan Broyles, left, moves past Oklahoma State linebacker Justin Gent, right, at the start of his 87-yard punt return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter of an NCAA college football game in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Nov. 28, 2009. (AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki)

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Some pundits were quick to declare the Big Ten the big winner, after Oklahoma State was slain Saturday at the hands of in state rival Oklahoma. And why not? The Cowboy's loss all but guarantees the league will place a second at large team in the BCS, netting the conference an extra $4.5 million bonus atop its usual $17.5 million dollar championship series payout. Bowl proceeds are split evenly amongst the 11 member institutions, meaning athletic directors from Madison to Bloomington can rejoice at the prospect of an extra $409,000 allowance.

The problem is there's no free lunch. By winning the earnings battle, we're losing the war of national respect. How so? Even if the Big Ten wins both its presumptive BCS bowls (Rose, Fiesta) in 2009, the conference is still likely to have a losing (3-4) bowl season. We could just as easily go 1-6 in bowls for the second year in a row.

On the other hand, if the Big Ten had just one BCS bowl participant (like most other conferences), the same teams would have a great chance of going (5-2) in bowls. How is that possible? Read on.

It's Lonely on Top

Since the inception of the BCS in 1998, The Big Ten has had two representatives in BCS bowls eight times in eleven seasons. By comparsion, the SEC has done it six times, the Big 12 five times, and the Pac 10 just once. Neither the ACC or the Big East have ever sent two teams to the BCS.

Read that again. Add in the unparalleled revenues from its own television network, and it's no surprise that the Big Ten remains the richest, most powerful conference college football has ever known.

But the bottom line isn't the only line in a competitive context. Fans care a lot more about the goal line. In that department, the league's struggles are well documented. Of the eight seasons the Big Ten has sent two teams to the big dance, both have won just three times.

While that might not be so bad by itself, there's another consequence to double dipping: our non-BCS bowl matchups suffer.

Dating Up Is No Fun in Football

Imagine that you're a competitive, but young Big Ten program. You win the games you're supposed to win, and lose the games you're supposed to lose, ending the conference season at 8-4 (5-3). Your record earns you third place in conference behind Slow-hi-O State 10-2 (7-1), and Past itS prime U 10-2 (6-2). Ordinarily, you'd be headed to the Outback Bowl to play the third selection from the SEC.

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But wait. The Fiesta Bowl has extended an at-large bid to Past itS prime U. Suddenly, you're "dating up," as the Capital One bowl has little choice but to select you from the Big Ten basket. Good news for you, right?

Wrong. In the other corner is LucklesS U 9-3 (6-2), the SEC's No. 2 selection. Even worse, BestWestern 8-4 (5-3), the conference's fourth contestant, will have to face the SEC's third selection Sad Carolina 9-3 (5-3) in the Outback bowl.

And so it goes.

In at least six of the past 10 years, the Big Ten representative has come into the Capital One Bowl ranked lower than its SEC counterpart.

1-6 Versus 6-1. You pick.

If you think that's negligable, consider how this year's bowl lineup will be affected if No. 9 Iowa or No. 11 Penn State earns a BCS at large. If it happens, the odd man out will will go to the Capital One Bowl to face LSU (5-3 in conference). That might not seem so bad. Neither does Wisconsin (5-3 in conference) getting bumped up to play Tennessee (4-4 in conference) in the Outback. But what about Northwestern (5-3 in conference) against Clemson (6-2 in conference) in the Champs Sports? Or Michigan State (4-4 in conference) against Oklahoma (5-3 in conference) in the Alamo? If you think that's scary, don't even consider Minnesota (3-5 in conference) lining up against Missouri (4-4 in conference) in the Insight Bowl.

Mark Dantonio after Oklahoma scores to go ahead 35-3.

Even if the Big Ten wins both its BCS bowls (Rose, Fiesta), the conference is still likely to have a losing bowl season (3-4), with almost guaranteed losses in the Capital One, Champs Sports, Alamo, and Insight Bowls. And that's giving the Big Ten two hardly certain victories against higher-ranked BCS adversaries (likely No. 7 Oregon, and No. 6 Boise State). The conference could just as easily go 1-6 in bowls for the second year in a row.

But we deserve it, right? We suck.

Not so fast. Look at the difference an at-large bid makes: If neither Penn State nor Iowa is selected to go to the BCS, the bowl lineup suddenly becomes dramatically more manageable. Iowa plays LSU in the Capital One. Penn State gets Tennessee in the Outback. Wisky takes on Clemson in the Champs Sports. Northwestern gets Oklahoma in the Alamo. Michigan State gets Missouri in the Insight. And Minnesota is relegated to the Little Caesar's to play Ohio.

Suddenly, the Big Ten can lose in the BCS, and still have an overwhelmingly positive (5-2) bowl showing, with its only other loss in the Alamo. If Ohio State wins in the Rose Bowl, the Big Ten could literally reserve its bowl fate with a 6-1 finish.

So the next time your uncle from San Francisco brags about the Pac 10's bowl record, remind him that his great league is dating down. And if he persists, tell him his real beef isn't with the Big Ten, it's with the Pac 10's round-robin scheduling format that results in an extra, cannibalizing conference game.

And tell Jim Delany to quit laughing all the way to the bank.