SB Nation User Blog: Law Buckeye

The Obligatory Predictions Competition - Week 10 Scoreboard

Law Buckeye — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 15:21:06 -0000

For the second-consecutive week in a row, no one broke into double digits. In fact, this week's picks were so bad that 1 point was good enough for a Top 5 finish. Going 3 for 5 gave txhawkeye the win. On the other hand I'm obligated to gloat about being one of only two people to pick Ohio State to shut down Penn State on the road. And sorry Hillary, we're still tied.

Season Rank	User ID	Week 10 Total Points	Week 10 Rank	Season Total Points
1	Seattle Hawkeye	3	T-4	101
T-2	Chitownhawkeye	1	T-5	88
T-2	Grahamfiller10	3	T-4	88
T-2	Law Buckeye	6	T-2	88
T-2	hmlee	6	T-2	88
T-3	Burncruisin	3	T-4	87
T-3	txhawkeye	9	1	87
4	imadirtyoldman	4	T-3	84
5	Bama Hawkeye	1	T-5	82
6	Lakeeriemonstar	4	T-3	79
7	ChiSpartan	3	T-4	75
T-8	JRose	1	T-5	73
T-8	PaternosGrandaughter	3	T-4	73
T-9	HookMania	1	T-5	70
T-9	Hoosierdaddynow	4	T-3	70
10	Pete Rossman	0	N/A	69
11	RossWB	0	N/A	68
12	DMAN2303	0	N/A	67
13	Recoveringfratguy	4	T-3	66
T-14	Gophersports	0	N/A	65
T-14	Wad	1	T-5	65
15	SpartanDan	1	T-5	63
16	Estrada	4	T-3	61
17	Jerdogg1	0	N/A	57
18	Steel Hawkeye	0	N/A	11
19	Yabbs	4	T-3	4

Linebacker Who?

Law Buckeye — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 04:54:02 -0000

On Saturday, I left the creature comforts of the village by the Olentangy with friends and a fiance in toe, to head to State College for Ohio State's showdown with Penn State. What follows is a brief re-count of our trip to Penn's Woods.

11:46 a.m.: We leave Columbus late after sitting for the morning MPRE exam. Things started an hour and four minutes behind schedule, resulting in a stressful change of vehicle in front of M's carriage house. She greets us with a box of fresh pastries from a local French bakery. I change into my uniform: the Nike "Tressel" sweater-vest, complete with a Brooks Brother's undershirt and grab a cranberry scone. We point the navigation to State College, PA, and learn that our projected arrival time is 5:04 p.m., some ninety minutes after kickoff. We're down, but we're not out. We've got a perfectly good second half to live for.

12:45 p.m.: Barreling down I-70, we learn -- first over the radio, and later from a phone call from Graham, that Iowa's Ricky Stanzi has gone down whilst rolling out on a naked bootleg against Northwestern. The prognosis is negative.

3:01 p.m.: The sky is blue as we bolt through a tunnel into downtown Pittsburgh. There's an unexpected commotion near Heinz Field, and we remember that there's another team in Pennsylvania that owns a one-loss record. Alas, we have bigger fish to fry.

3:34 p.m.: With kickoff looming we scan the AM dial desperately for some resemblance of a broadcast. Finally, we hit an undulating signal from a local Happy Valley station. The signal rate drops in and out, replaced by a unrelated jazz overture. Ohio State returns the opening kickoff to the 25 and it's on.

3:49 p.m.: Terrelle Pryor skips through a fold in the pressure and burns Navarro Bowman for a 7 yard rushing touchdown. I smack my knuckles on the sunroof in jubilation. After the Buckeyes force Penn State to another 3 and out, I declare to my passengers that we've come to play. We're weaving through orange foothills and soft mountains, the open landscape punctuated by power lines. It sounds like Ohio State's defensive front is having a field day with the Nittany Lions, a fact that makes me swell with hope. An embarrassingly partisan radio announcer admits another Ohio State 12 yard gain.

4:14 p.m.: Graham Zug knifes through the Ohio State secondary for a 31-yard gain setting up a goalline standoff that ends when Daryll Clark holds the ball across the hash on fourth down. I get a text immediately from a friend's girlfriend that the score is suspect. We hold our breath, as the announcer concedes that "It's a close call." The ruling on the field is confirmed. It's a tie game, and I immediately second guess Tressel's decision to punt from the 29.

4:59 p.m.: With less than 3:00 minutes to play in the second half, and the Goodyear Blimp hovering like a winged seraph on the horizon, M announces that she has to pee. We swing into a local Outback Steakhouse to do the deed. The hostess comments on our choice attire, but lets us in. Ohio State forces a Jeremy Boone punt with approximately 2:10 left. I put my hands in my pockets, convinced we're headed to half up by three.

5:11 p.m.: Just off the exit we get our first glimpse of Beaver Stadium, a spaceship-like fortress nestled in a pastoral embankment beside the interstate. The sun is glancing off the mountains, painting the landscape in a brilliant orange halo. We swing into a non-permit space in the grass beside a local Hospital and bundle up as the clock expires on the first half. We march off through farm land for the quarter-mile walk to the stadium.

5:19 p.m.: We check in on the north end and are greeted by a labyrinth of steel buttresses and concrete. The sounds of the marching band move through the portals as we shuffle for the ramp to head to the upper deck. I'm trying to be objective here, but I've got to say, the traffic management of this stadium sucks. We've forced to zig-zag back and forth through the packed concourse, smashed between iron girders and chain link safety fences. The air is sweet and stale with sweat and hot dog buns. We earn our way to Section NKU, and finally, break out into the open space. Beaver Stadium is alive with madness, a white brimmed monster of hollow sound and fury. We climb up to the 92nd row and are greeted by the familiar faces of friends. I survey the twin-press boxes, and the natural grass surface. A colleague hands me a Camel Pak filled with rum and tells me to "Bite and Suck." I do, and am warmed to the core. The steel bleachers move with the swell of anxiousness.

5:39 p.m.: The second half kicks off and it's us against the whiteout. We hold the Nittany Lions on another series and I comment to a friend about the play of linebacker Brian Rolle. "He's everywhere," my friend responds. Ohio State gets the ball back and after a string of rushes and an incomplete pass pins Penn State at their own 13. "Ten points," says my buddy "won't be enough to win this." I agree without hesitation. Turns out, we were both wrong.

6:17 p.m.: Pryor steps up in the pocket, turns his shoulders and heaves a "Hail Mary" up into the sky. I immediately go numb -- wasn't it Woody Hayes that said only three things can happen when you throw the ball and two of them are bad? The long ball floats and bobs, as a free safety and cornerback close on the left side of the field. DeVier Posey waits and STEALS THE PASS AT THE LAST SECOND, I jump with estranged joy as Posey darts through the secondary and INTO THE ENDZONE. We roar from the high decks, trading high fives and singing low taunts of elation. We're up 10 points, and for the first time I think we just might have the game. The thought is electric. Our D is back on the field and they're playing off the momentum, dancing jigs behind the line of scrimmage. Beaver Stadium belongs to us.

Happy Valley Indeed...

6:27 p.m.: And just like that Ray Small blows through another leaky Nittany Lion coverage scheme for 45 yards back to the Penn State 47. Jeremy Boone makes a killer knee-cap tackle that saves the touchdown. Pryor takes the reins again, and after a short handoff and incomplete pass we're facing 3rd and 11. The student section is re-energized after the Buckeyes call a timeout, and I let doubt eclipse my mind for a brief second as we line up 4 wide. Pryor moves forward on the keep, and as he charts the open space to the left hash I see an outside linebacker is keyed in on the play. Pryor glides, flashing his trademark motionless moonwalk, and beats the defender to the sideline for the first down. Seven plays later we're in the endzone, after Pryor dishes the ball to a leaping Brandon Saine. It's right in front of the visitor's section, and we go nuts as Penn State fans fill the aisles. Confident in the seventeen point lead I throw out a few hypothetical titles for this article to a friend, including the admittedly insensitive: "You Are...Losers."

Ultimately, "Linebacker Who?" sticks.

7:01 p.m.: After an Ohio State interception, and the usual clock-killing pleasantries, I wait for the clock to hit zero before snapping the iconic scoreboard photograph.

That would be this one...

7:25 p.m.: We file out of the stadium, singing "We don't give a damn for the whole state of Michigan." (Love it or hate it, Ohio State is probably the only fan base that would rip Rival A, after beating Rival B). With the advice of a few helpful locals we wonder over to College Avenue, the backbone of a handsome New England downtown with shops, restaurants, and (of course) bars. We wait in line for a table at Bill Pickles Tap Room, a game day oasis with tudor-stylings, plentiful LCD feeds, and craft-beer by the pitcher. I drink a Leinenkugel's, and scarf down a soft pretzel, while we draw envious stares. The locals are friendly, even concilatory, and it's clear everyone is all in for the Big Ten.

11:48 p.m.: With designated driver M at the helm, we hop into the car and head east to Altoona -- the nearest available lodging. We buy a six-pack of Yuengling from a bowling-alley bar, and settle down at a local inn, strangely complacent with the Big Ten championship just a week away.

The Obligatory Predictions Competition - Week 10

Law Buckeye — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 21:09:04 -0000

In the next 48 hours I have to sit for the Multistate Professional Responsibility Exam, and make my way from Columbus to State College for the OSU/PSU game. Needless to say, I'm a bit crunched for time, so I'll keep my explanations short this week. Don't worry though, the predictions remain spot on. Or not.

1. No. 21 WISCONSIN at INDIANA, 12:00 p.m. EST (11/7), Big Ten Network

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts WISCONSIN by 10

Two choices here and I think you'll agree. Wisconsin by 17 - Their defense is peaking and Indiana won't be able to get up for this game after last weeks heartbreaker. Wisconsin by 7 - The talented wide receivers of Indiana have stepped up big all season and Tolzien has folded against big time rushers like Middleton and Kirlew. I'll cut it somewhere in the middle - Wisky has an effective downhill run game that's only been stopped by Ohio State and Iowa, but Bill Lynch's fiery personality drives his team to overperform against the Badgers

LAW BUCKEYE predicts WISCONSIN by 10

There's a reason Indiana keeps giving away big leads: while respectable, they're not a complete team. Meanwhile, the Badgers have an honest shot at a 10-2 season.

2. PURDUE at MICHIGAN, 12:00 p.m. EST (11/7), Big Ten Network

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts MICHIGAN by 10

The hardest game to pick this week. Purdue looks like the better team of late...oh besides the shellacking v. Wisky when the team all but gave up by the 3rd quarter. Michigan is supposedly improved at quarterback...oh besides the three game struggle that Forcier is going through. Last year, Michigan's swoon looked to be ended in West Lafayette, until (former?) Boiler Justin Siller went nuts on the weak UM defense.

Let's look at the matchup. Has Purdue faced a spread run game like RichRods? Oregon ran for 193 yards at Autzen, actually sort of a low number, but the Boilers played inspired ball. Michigan has seen four teams with a large number of shotgun packages - and hasn't stopped a single one of them. But Cissoko is gone, their heavily toasted cornerback, so maybe we'll see improvement?

This from MGo -

As for Purdue, they picked up 140 yards last week, so there's a chance if we catch them on one of their bad Boiler days, but this is an offense designed to tear up the middle of the field with short passes and Michigan is uniquely positioned to not stop this sort of offense. The defense will remain terrible until 2010.

Be honest though - this game is all about cognitive dissonance. Your brain tells you that Michigan can't miss a bowl again or the world will implode. It implores you that the Wolverines are just a year away from 10-2. Well I'll be damned (music swells) if I just follow my head and heart here.

LAW BUCKEYE predicts MICHIGAN by 7

Just because the Wolverines struggled in October doesn't mean they can't re-gain their September swagger. It won't be a perfect finale, but I think Michigan does what it needs to do down the stretch.

3. ILLINOIS at MINNESOTA, 12:00 p.m. EST (11/7), Big Ten Network

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts MINNESOTA by 14

Picking this game comes down to your confidence in last weeks bizarre results. Did Minnesota turn a corner offensively in their MSU victory? Will the Gophers line continue to pass block so well against an Illinois team that runs a similar 4-3 scheme as the Spartans? Was the Juice read option reborn against Michigan? Will the running holes show up for a second straight week?

I imagine the Illini going after Weber, bent on destroying whatever confidence he gained back from last weeks 416 yard performance. I see MarQueis Gray continuing to serve as a change of pace, giving balance and toughness to the Gophers offense. And I don't see Juice being able to run the ball like last week.

LAW BUCKEYE predicts MINNESOTA by 7

Yes, the Illini won big against the Wolverines last weekend. What most forget is that they were an upheld review away from being in the hole 20-9. Minnesota made some big strides last week in the offensive department. If the Eric Weber that shows up Saturday looks anything like the Eric Weber that obliterated Michigan State, this one goes down smooth for the Golden Gophers.

4. NORTHWESTERN at No. 4 IOWA, 12:00 p.m. EST (11/7), ESPN

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts IOWA by 10

Bizarro Ricky Stanzi versus the talented Mr. Kafka. Although Northwestern has rolled up a huge number of yards behind the versatile Kafka, they cannot translate that success to points. I think you the reader should have two thoughts here - Should I view last weeks clusterf*** against Indiana as the wake up call that rallies the Hawkeyes? Or was it just another close game where Iowa proved it's inadequacy as a complete football team?

Pat Fitzgerald runs a spread that asks for quick passes and screens - Iowa will eat those up all day, as their zone pass defense only struggles against deeper routes like Indiana was running.

LAW BUCKEYE predicts IOWA by 14

Everyone wants to talk about how Iowa was down 24-14 heading into the fourth quarter of its latest lucky comeback. I want to talk about how these Hawkeyes are good enough to overcome 5 interceptions, to put a team away late. One of these weeks, Bama Hawkeye won't need a defibrillator. This game is as good as any...

5. No. 16 OHIO STATE at No. 11 PENN STATE, 3:30 p.m. EST (11/7), ABC

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts PENN STATE by 7

Simple game to pick, deep analysis be damned. OSU doesn't have a big time run game nor do they have an intermediate passing game. They have Terrelle Pryor, who's struggled mightily and succeeded wildly...And you expect this talented conundrum to succeed in Happy Valley in the biggest game of his career?

LAW BUCKEYE predicts OHIO STATE by 7

Everything in my head tells me that the Buckeye offense will get snowplowed by the Penn State front 7. A springy Sean Lee will play a game of "I Spy" with Terrelle Pryor, and the only reason this one stays close is the Buckeye defense locks the Nittany Lions down through two quarters.

Ohio State can't pass. Ohio State can't kick. But, what the hell. Terrelle Pryor makes a statement on homecoming, and the youngest and hottest rivalry in the Big Ten gets that much more contentious.

The Obligatory Predictions Competition - Week 9 Scoreboard

Law Buckeye — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 19:01:28 -0000

There's something wrong when 3 points gets you fourth place.

Yet, with outcomes like Illinois over Michigan, Minnesota over Michigan State, and Oregon over USC -- and margins of victory like 18, 25, 27, and 37 points, it's no surprise that no one broke double digits. As I looked at the results, it became clear that whoever picked the Golden Gophers would carry the day. It turns out, just one person did: our own Jerdogg1. This is proof that being a homer isn't always a bad thing. Please congratulate Mr. Minneapolis on the win.

Season Rank	User ID	Week 9 Total Points	Week 9 Rank	Season Total Points
1	Seattle Hawkeye	5	T-2	98
2	Chitownhawkeye	4	T-3	87
3	Grahamfiller10	5	T-2	85
4	Burncruisin	5	T-2	84
T-5	Law Buckeye	2	T-5	82
T-5	Hmlee	5	T-2	82
6	Bama Hawkeye	1	T-6	81
7	Imadirtyoldman	4	T-3	80
8	txhawkeye	5	T-2	78
9	Lakeeriemonstar	1	T-6	75
T-10	JRose	2	T-5	72
T-10	ChiSpartan	5	T-2	72
11	PaternosGrandaughter	5	T-2	70
T-12	HookMania	2	T-5	69
T-12	Pete Rossman	0	N/A	69
13	RossWB	5	T-2	68
14	DMAN2303	5	T-2	67
15	Hoosierdaddynow	4	T-3	66
16	Gophersports	5	T-2	65
17	Wad	4	T-3	64
T-18	Recoveringfratguy	5	T-2	62
T-18	SpartanDan	5	T-2	62
T-19	Estrada	1	T-6	57
T-19	Jerdogg1	8	1	57
20	Steel Hawkeye	3	4	11

The Big Ten This Year Versus The Big Ten Last Year

Law Buckeye — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 04:13:52 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

11 days ago: Indiana coach Bill Lynch pleads for a spot with an official during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Iowa, Saturday, Oct. 31, 2009, in Iowa City, Iowa. Iowa won 42-24. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Browse more photos »

In this era of holistic conference comparisons, few leagues get raked over the coals like our beloved Big Ten. This year in particular, we've seen an shift in national parity as defenses dominate and offenses evaporate. A lot has been said about the respective top-to-bottom strengths and weaknesses of even the most powerful mainstays. Have you heard?

1. The SEC is so top heavy it's like a 120 story skyscraper with vacancies on the first ninety floors. Still, it's hard to deny that Florida, Alabama, and LSU continue to enjoy spectacular views from the top of the world.

2. The Big 12 South -- once a lawless, gun totin' terror -- is suddenly less wild west, and more law and order as sheriff Texas holds down the fort. The Big 12 North is a ghost town by comparsion.

3. The Pac 10 monarchy recently underwent a violent overthrow. The old King (USC) is dead. The new Emperor resides in Eugene.

4. The ACC continues its cannibalistic ways, as Georgia Tech swallowed Virginia Tech who feasted on Miami right as it stepped out of the Bobby Bowden buffet line. There's a ton of hungry teams (North Carolina), and all can plan to watch the BCS National Championship game from the comfort of their own living rooms, with store-bought peel n' eat shrimp rings and cocktail sauce.

5. Last, but ~~not~~ least, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh have replaced the elder barons (WVU, Rutgers, Louisville) of the Big East.

Then there's us. It's hard to ignore the moans and groans of the national press. In the almost two years since Ohio State made its last slaughterhouse appearence in a national championship game, the envious mockery has reached boiling point, spewing anti-Midwestern sentiments, and spilling doubt into online forums, Saturday Night Football broadcasts, and Associated Press pollings. True, we did go 1-6 in bowl games last year. Sure, Michigan is softer than a three-week old carved pumpkin. And yes, we haven't won in Pasadena since 2000.

Still, I believe the Big Ten is headed in the right direction.

Look at a comparsion of this year's league to last year's league. We'll use a subjective model, assigning each team in the conference a ranking from 1-10, with 10 being representative of the best team in all of the BCS Conferences in 2008 (i.e. Florida), and 1 being representative of the worst team in all of the BCS Conferences in 2008 (i.e. Washington). In other words, no Big Ten team in the 2008 or 2009 season (or portion thereof) will receive either a 1 or a 10. The scale analogs are simply there as reference points.

Here's how I rate the Big Ten as it existed at the end of the 2008 season:

Team	W-L	Point Rating
1. Penn State	7-1	8
2. Ohio State	7-1	8
3. Michigan State	6-2	6
4. Iowa	5-3	6
5. Northwestern	5-3	5
6. Minnesota	3-5	3
7. Wisconsin	3-5	3
8. Illinois	3-5	2
9. Purdue	2-6	2
10. Michigan	2-6	2
11. Indiana	1-7	2

Averaged, that comes to a conference-wide rating of 4.273. That mark would put the Big Ten in the middle of/slightly below the BCS Conference pack. This makes sense, considering it's hard to argue that the conference fared better at the end of 2008 than the SEC, Big 12, and Pac 10. Yet, at the same time, colorable arguments can be made that the league finished slightly ahead of, or even with the ACC, and Big East as they existed at the time.

Let's transition to the present using the standings as they exist 75% of the way through the 2009 regular season:

Team	W-L	Point Rating
1. Iowa	5-0	8
2. Penn State	4-1	7
3. Ohio State	4-1	7
4. Wisconsin	3-2	6
5. Minnesota	3-3	5
6. Michigan State	3-5	4
7. Northwestern	3-3	4
8. Purdue	2-3	4
9. Michigan	1-4	4
10. Indiana	1-4	4
11. Illinois	1-5	2

Averaged, that's a straight rating of 5.000, an 8.5% increase from last year's group.

Now, I know what you're thinking: subjective ratings lack empirical legitimacy. True. Try as I might to be impartial, these metrics inevitably reflect unintentional double standards.

To try to get the statistical margin of error down to an acceptable level let's create and average low, median, and high data clusters. Using the above two models as "middle" points, I'll now intentially adjust each set of ratings, giving fence teams the benefit of the doubt in one set, and rounding down in the other.

Here's 2008, adjusted:

Team	W-L	Low/Middle/High
1. Penn State	7-1	7/8/8
2. Ohio State	7-1	7/8/8
3. Michigan State	6-2	5/6/7
4. Iowa	5-3	6/6/7
5. Northwestern	5-3	5/5/6
6. Minnesota	3-5	3/3/4
7. Wisconsin	3-5	3/3/4
8. Illinois	3-5	2/2/3
9. Purdue	2-6	2/2/2
10. Michigan	2-6	2/2/3
11. Indiana	1-7	2/2/2

This averages out to: 4 (low), 4.273 (middle), and 4.909 (high) point ratings. Counting each cluster as 1/3, this gives us a final adjusted 2008 team average of 4.394.

Now, let's do 2009:

Team	W-L	Low/Middle/High
1. Iowa	5-0	7/8/9
2. Penn State	4-1	7/7/8
3. Ohio State	4-1	6/7/8
4. Wisconsin	3-2	6/6/7
5. Minnesota	3-3	4/5/5
6. Michigan State	3-5	3/4/5
7. Northwestern	3-3	3/4/4
8. Purdue	2-3	4/4/5
9. Michigan	1-4	3/4/5
10. Indiana	1-4	4/4/5
11. Illinois	1-5	2/2/3

This average gives us: 4.45 (low), 5 (middle), and 5.818 (high) point ratings. Counting each cluster as 1/3, this gives us a final adjusted 2009 team average of 5.089, an 8.6% increase over the adjusted 2008 models.

No, it's not hard science, but we can learn a few things from this exercise:

The Top 1/3 of the conference in 2009 (Iowa, Penn State, Ohio State, Wisconsin) seems to be similar to last year's Top 1/3 (Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa). This shouldn't come as much of a surprise. Each cluster averaged a team rating of exactly 7. Both groups featured/feature a potential national championship contender (2008 = Penn State, 2009 = Iowa), and a runner up who earned/has a chance to earn an at large bid to the BCS (2008 = Ohio State 2009 = Iowa, Penn State, Ohio State).
The strength of this year's Big Ten, relative to last year, is easily the middle of the conference (Nos. 5-8) which has an average team score of 5.25 compared to 3.25 in 2008.
It's also clear that the floor has been raised in 2009. The bottom dwellers (Nos. 9-11) average 3.33 this year, compared to a paltry 2 in 2008.

So while our ceiling might not be as high as other high-profile leagues, the Big Ten is building where it counts: from the bottom up. This is promising for the future.

Expect a far more thorough and objective review at the end of the season.

The Obligatory Predictions Competition - Week 9

Law Buckeye — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 21:59:17 -0000

This is a scary week for the site managers. We're deadlocked in a three way tie. Someone's bound to get buried...

1. PURDUE at WISCONSIN, 12:00 p.m. EST (10/31), ESPN 2

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts WISCONSIN by 7

It is officially "Road Favorites" week. You've got an intriguing decision to make here: Do you listen to Vegas and pick Wisky by a touch, believing the improved Boilers can keep this game close on the road? Do you have faith that Joey Elliot and his three big time playmakers (Bolden, Smith, Valentin) will dial up enough firepower to make this game come down to the fourth quarter? Or should Vegas be disregarded with the thought that Camp Randall and a greatly improved Badger defense will just be too much for Purdue? Will you disregard Purdue's 0 turnover performance v. OSU as an aberration, knowing the Boilermakers will be back to their old ways? I'll follow Vegas here; Purdue's O-Line has been excellent of late, but Wisconsin truly brings speed (Schofield) and smash mouth (everyone else) together for the win.

LAW BUCKEYE predicts WISCONSIN by 7

This game comes down to who can establish the run. Sure, Purdue needs the kind of spacial passing scheme it employed against Ohio State to sustain drives on the Badgers, but what the Boilermakers really want to do here is bleed the clock on a Wisconsin offense that's not exactly quick strike. To that end, Ralph Bolden is quietly putting together a 1,000 yard season for the Boilermakers. That being said, Purdue has to deal with a power I-Form back in John Clay, something Ohio State didn't have. I think Clay moves the chains, wearing down Purdue's defense, and a few inopportune turnovers keep a well-rested Badger's team in the driver's seat.

2. MICHIGAN at ILLINOIS, 3:30 p.m. EST (10/31), ABC

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts MICHIGAN by 10

Will people actually pick Illinois here? If they do, it speaks volumes about the struggling Wolverines. In our annual power poll, Michigan is #6, a sad referendum on the Big Ten frankly...I had them at #8 in my individual list. MSU and PSU quickly found out how to slow Michigan (make them throw!), but Illinois has had a tough time making any Big Ten offenses uncomfortable. It's not a lack of effort - the defense showed guts against MSU and Purdue. It's more of a momentum/talent issue. When a season is so obviously done, younger players get playing time, coaches run odd substitution patterns, and the focus is less on winning games than having "good game experiences." Combine this with the injuries and the quarterback carousel, and you know why picking against the Illini big is never a bad deal, even at home.

LAW BUCKEYE predicts MICHIGAN by 10

Sure, Michigan was held to 10 points last week -- but they were up against a Penn State defense that's getting more and more in sync as the year develops. It's also clear that injuries are taking their toll on the small-framed athletes that play Wolverine skill positions. The groan you hear is the Michigan faithful, recognizing that despite being light years from 2008's rubber rodents, this team is still one of the worst the school has fielded in four decades. They need a boost in morale, and having this no-confidence Illini club on the schedule is just what the doctor ordered.

3. MICHIGAN STATE at MINNESOTA, 8:00 p.m. EST (10/31), Big Ten Network

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts MICHIGAN STATE by 14

The Spartans are rightfully downtrodden after last weeks near upset. Will they come out fired up or slothful? I don't think it matters. Simple schematic analysis of the Mini Offense versus the Spartan Defense says everything you need to know. Mini cannot throw the ball effectively against anyone, so they revert to the run game. This tendency will be even more pronounced with the loss of Eric Decker. On the opposite site of the ball, the Spartans can stop almost any run game, thanks to a solid LB corps and a hard working front four. You see where this is going?

LAW BUCKEYE predicts MICHIGAN STATE by 10

For 58 minutes last week the Spartans showed they can hold down the fort. Their reward for giving up the game with 2 seconds left? They get to play a Minnesota team that is without an identity behind center and is without its top wide receiver (Eric Decker). Whether or not MarQueis Gray sees the field en mass, I think Greg jones, and a fiery Michigan State mid-field contain a pop-rocks Minnesota offense. And while there's almost certainly no Big Ten title in the Spartan's immediate future, they can prove that they're an upper tier team. Minnesota, not so much.

4. No. 3 TEXAS at No. 14 OKLAHOMA STATE, 8:00 p.m. EST (10/31), ABC

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts TEXAS by 10

Vegas loves Texas on the road, giving the Longhorns 10 points. I don't believe in this Texas team, they aren't dominating with the same panache as last year, plus The Great Golden Calf (get it? Colt? has a pick in each game this year. But the defense has been dominant, with athletes flying all over the place. So my choice is between: 1) Ignore Vegas by picking a 14 point margin, knowing that Mack Brown will gameplan effectively on defense (just like Oklahoma) and find ways to score enough to pull away in the third quarter. 2) Play this close to the vest, picking Texas by 7 and believing that Zac Robinson, spurred on by his home crowd, can scare up a couple touchdown drives to keep the suspense going late. I'll cut it in the middle - it's still Texas and T. Boone Pickens can only do so much to slow McCoy and Sergio Kindle.

LAW BUCKEYE predicts TEXAS by 10

While Texas is far from perfect, the Longhorns showed that they can score fast and at will against Missouri. My opinion of Oklahoma State is still stained by their inexplicable loss to Houston, and the suspension of Dez Bryant. This game comes down to which first half Texas team shows up: the one that slow danced with Wyoming, Colorado, and Oklahoma, or the one that piledrove the Tigers last week. If Colt and Co. let the Cowboy defense get set, and the crowd stay in the game this one could turn out like Texas Tech last year. Then again, when have we actually gotten what we wanted this season?

5. No. 5 USC at No. 10 OREGON, 8:00 p.m. EST (10/31), ABC

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts OREGON by 7

Spread v. SoCal Toughness. Autzen v. Barkley's Sanity. One Pac 10 title on the line. Why would you bet against Oregon at home? Why have you bought into the Pete Carroll myth so easily?

I'm going to tell you something. When I pick these games each week, I do two things. First, I decide how everyone else will pick the game. Second, I close my eyes and imagine how this game should go. So here goes: I think you all fear USC's toughness and athleticism, so I think people will go with USC by 7 probably across the board. With this in mind, I try to imagine a situation where USC could lose this game. That's easily done - Oregon scores early on a quick strike drive, USC counters with a methodical drive, and this becomes a classic tit for tat showdown.

LAW BUCKEYE predicts USC by 10

Upsets are about as common this year as Ohio State touchdown drives. But, if there were ever a game I'd love to be wrong about, it's this one. It's no secret: I'm sick of seeing cardinal and gold in the Rose Bowl. I'm sick of seeing a Pac 10 race flatter than a two day old open Miller Lite. I'm sick of seeing conference minnows (Stanford, UCLA, Oregon State, Washington) nibble at Pete Carroll's dynasty, while the so-called warriors (Cal, Oregon, Arizona State) wet the bed. Still, I can't erase the memory of watching a disoriented Oregon team get disemboweled on the blue turf. All the echoes of Autzen won't bury that doubt. No matter how many times you change your uniform, you're still sitting ducks...

The Obligatory Predictions Competition - Week 8 Scoreboard

Law Buckeye — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 21:07:38 -0000

Here are your Week 8 results. Congratulations to our weekly winner, Chitownhawkeye. Stay tuned for Week 9...

Season Rank	User ID	Week 8 Total Points	Week 8 Rank	Season Total Points
1	Seattle Hawkeye	11	T-2	93
2	Chitownhawkeye	13	1	83
T-3	Bama Hawkeye	6	T-7	80
T-3	Grahamfiller10	8	T-5	80
T-3	Law Buckeye	11	T-2	80
4	Burncruisin	8	T-5	79
5	hmlee	8	T-5	77
6	imadirtyoldman	6	T-7	76
7	lakeeriemonstar	11	T-2	74
8	txhawkeye	8	T-5	73
9	JRose	6	T-7	70
10	Pete Rossman	5	T-8	69
T-11	HookMania	9	4	67
T-11	ChiSpartan	10	3	67
12	PaternosGrandaughter	5	T-8	65
13	RossWB	7	T-6	63
T-14	Hoosierdaddynow	0	N/A	62
T-14	DMAN2303	7	T-6	62
T-15	Wad	5	T-8	60
T-15	Gophersports	11	T-2	60
T-16	Recoveringfratguy	0	N/A	57
T-16	SpartanDan	8	T-5	57
17	Estrada	7	T-6	56
18	Jerdogg1	8	T-5	49
19	Steel Hawkeye	8	T-6	8

D'entre les Morts - Is Iowa Ohio State 2002, Reincarnate?

Law Buckeye — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 00:36:53 -0000

About the time Ricky Stanzi sealed Iowa's daring victory Saturday by taking a knee on a lame-duck P.A.T., I got a text message from my cousin Steve. It read: "Iowa is a reincarnation of the 2002 bucks."

It's a flattering comparison for the Hawkeyes. After all, the 2002 Buckeyes are the first and only team to go 14-0 in the history of our sport. They were the epitome of everything that's right -- and wrong -- with the Big Ten; a plodding, plain, and immediately likable rough and tumble crop of underdogs that refused to lose. After a season of nailbiters, and overtime triumphs, the Bucks faced a a defending national champion Hurricane squad with a Heisman finalist quarterback, a Heisman finalist running back and a 34 game winning streak.

Four bone-crushing quarters, and two mesmerizing overtimes later, the scarlet came out on top: 31-24. The win brought the Big Ten its 34th -- and most recent -- National Championship.

That was seven years ago.

Since then the Big Ten is 3-8 in BCS bowls (0-2 in the BCS National Championship). A crown gem in the early part of the decade, the conference has slipped into a funk, as the great giants of the sport fell asleep at the wheel. Strange shifts in parity have substituted crisp autumn leaves and cool November snaps for sweat, julips, and electric September nights in the swamp. Bruising brutes and bloody-noses have been replaced with soft-zones and slow pokes. Or so they would have us believe.

Still, there are signs everywhere that college football's most esteemed conference is on its way back, not the least of which are these Hawkeyes. A powerful Iowa joins perennial patriarchs Ohio State and Penn State at the top of a league that with Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Michigan in the wings just might be the deepest in the country. Sure, our ceiling might be just a bit lower than the spires atop the Pac 10, Big 12, and SEC. But none of those leagues are as hotly contested six floors down.

Is Iowa predestined to earn a spot in the BCS National Championship Game? Consider these striking similarities between the Hawkeyes and the 2002 Buckeyes.

Ohio State faced two out of conference BCS opponents in 2002. One from the Big 12 (Texas Tech) and one from the Pac 10 (Washington State). Iowa faced two out of conference BCS opponents this year. One from the Big 12 (Iowa State) and one from the Pac 10 (Arizona).
Ohio State rebounded from a 5-3 Big Ten Season in 2001. Iowa is rebounding from a 5-3 Big Ten Season in 2008.
Ohio State played South Carolina in the Outback Bowl in 2001. Iowa played South Carolina in the Outback Bowl in 2008.
Ohio State had two more returning starters on defense (7) than offense (5) in 2002. Iowa has two more returning starters on defense (8) than offense (6) in 2009.
Ohio State returned three veteran offensive linemen (Shane Olivea, Adrien Clark, and Bryce Bishop) in 2002. Iowa returned three veteran offensive linemen (Julian Vandervelde, Kyle Calloway, and Bryan Bulaga) in 2009.
Ohio State ultimately started a Freshman running back (Maurice Clarett) in 2002. Iowa ultimately started a Freshman running back (Adam Robinson) in 2009.
The strength of both teams was/is defense.
Both quarterbacks (Ohio State's Craig Krenzel and Iowa's Ricky Stanzi) had/have comparably modest completion percentages (59.4/57.1).
Ohio State was ranked Fourth in the BCS Standings heading into Week 9 in 2002. Iowa is ranked Fourth in the BCS Standings heading into Week 9 this season.
Ohio State won six games by 7 points or less in 2002. Iowa has already won four games by 7 points or less.
Ohio State came into the BCS National Championship as an underdog in 2002, facing the defending National Champions. If Iowa makes the 2009 BCS National Championship, it would be as an underdog, likely against the defending National Champions.

Now, don't get me wrong. There are plenty of significant diferences between the teams. While both were/are defensive stalwarts, Ohio State's strength in 2002 was the defensive line, and weakness was at cornerback, while Iowa came into the season with holes at defensive tackle, but loaded in the midfield and the secondary.

Furthermore, Iowa's Ricky Stanzi has thrown more interceptions (8) eight games into the season, than Craig Krenzel did in all of 2002 (7). These turnovers could ultimately be the difference between an undefeated and a two loss Iowa.

Ohio State faced its biggest challenge in 2002 in late-November with a visit from No. 12 Michigan. Iowa will have to go on the road in mid-November to face a (presumably) top 15 Ohio State team.

If they can do the impossible, they just might have the credibility in the computers to jump Texas, and meet the winner of the SEC Championship in Pasadena.

But does a Big Ten team really deserve to play for the title against the best the speedy South has to offer? Ask Ohio State, circa 2002, what it has to say about that.

TRE Appears on Gopher Football Blog Podcast

Law Buckeye — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 21:28:29 -0000

Looking for a way to kill an hour at your desk on a Friday morning?

Each week the Gopher Football Blog broadcasts an excellent podcast covering Minnesota football. This week they invited me on to talk about the Gopher's upcoming date with Ohio State. You can check out the coverage here:

Heading to the Shoe

Gopher Football Blog Podcast

(Note: My segment starts at the 14:50 mark)

Thanks to our own Jerdogg1 for the opportunity.

The Obligatory Predictions Competition - Week 8

Law Buckeye — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 16:00:24 -0000

1. INDIANA at NORTHWESTERN, 12:00 p.m. EST (10/24), Big Ten Network

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts NORTHWESTERN by 7

Wildcat mania has taken a backseat to the overall mediocrity of this Northwestern team. Mike Kafka has done everything he’s been asked to do, but the 34-47, 290 yard performances aren’t leading to any points. With all that said, the Wildcats defense has vastly improved and Vegas (NW -6) seems to believe Ryan Field will be friendly to Pat Fitzgerald this weekend. I’m trusting Vegas here in a close one

LAW BUCKEYE predicts NORTHWESTERN by 7

From a motivational standpoint this could be the best game of the week. Both Indiana and Northwestern need two wins to become bowl eligible and both Indiana and Northwestern only have two "winnable" games left on their schedule. Would you be surprised if I told you that Saturday was one of them? I believe the winner of this game will go bowling and the loser will stay home. Everything else being equal, I like the Wildcats to slow down the pistol offense. Mike Kafka and Zeke Markshausen can take over from there. Still, don't expect anyone to lay down and die with the season on the line.

2. ILLINOIS at PURDUE, 12:00 p.m. EST (10/24), ESPN 2

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts PURDUE by 14

At the beginning of this season, this reads "blowout, Illinois." Now? I don’t think any readers will pick Illinois on the road. And I’m inclined to agree at first glance. My defining factor is confined to Illinois’ inability to play a complete game. 400 yards of total offense against Indiana…led to 14 Illini points. A great defensive gameplan against Mizzou…helped hold the Tigers to 37 points when the defense wore out under the offensive’s immense ineptitude.

Things working in Purdue’s favor – Cohesive passing offense and three legitimate playmaking wide receivers (Carlos, Smith, Valentin)…Home crowd freshly excited from rushing the field against Ohio State…Playing against Juice Williams…

LAW BUCKEYE predicts PURDUE by 10

Picking the Illini to beat Indiana last week was my last olive branch. It's time to send the black sheep of the conferene to reform school. Before Purdue smashed Ohio State, I called them the best 1-5 team in the history of college football. It's finally time to call them what they are: a force on the rise. If Purdue can win the turnover battle they take this one without breaking a sweat. Expect Ryan Kerrigan to have another big day.

3. No. 13 PENN STATE at MICHIGAN, 3:30 p.m. EST (10/24), ABC

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts MICHIGAN by 7

Most of you will pick Penn State because you believe the Michigan defense is soft. Most of you believe Michigan may gash some runs early, but won’t be able to continue their success as the game wears on against Odrick and Josh Hill. Most of you believe, at least for this year, Michigan is no better than a 7-5 team which shows flashes of brilliance. Oh, and most of you think Tate Forcier is too small to survive another murderous defense akin to Penn State’s.

I’m inclined to agree with most those statements. But I think the Wolverine’s can get up for this one, plus I’m going to need some upset points, ala two weeks ago and Miami/Oklahoma. Penn State hasn’t 1) seen a spread run offense and 2) hasn’t played a team with the speed of Michigan. The Wolverines are healthy and rested – I don’t believe in this pick, but oh hell, let’s see what the Run Spread can do against the monster 4-3 of PSU.

LAW BUCKEYE predicts PENN STATE by 10

I think how you pick this one is more of a reflection on Michigan than Penn State. Do the Wolverines -- whose September 18th 1-point triumph against then No. 18 Notre Dame seems like a long time ago -- have another upset left in the tank? If they do, who gets the bequest? Is it a Nittany Lion team they always seem to frustrate? (Joe Pa hasn't won at the Big House since 1996). Or, are they saving something special for their good buddies in the Buckeye state? Don't get me wrong, I think Michigan's program is on the right track, but I see a statement game coming saturday for a team whose national discussion always seems to get prefaced with, "we don't really know how good they are." Daryll Clark might be the only quarterback in the Big Ten. A steadily improving Nittany Lion offensive line paves the way for a big day for Evan Royster. Penn State has four receivers with 20 or more catches. UM has none. Clark goes to the air early and often and -- with the help of WR Derek Moye -- puts this game out of reach by the mid-point of the third quarter.

4. No. 6 IOWA at MICHIGAN STATE, 7:30 p.m. EST (10/24), Big Ten Network

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts IOWA by 10

Most important game of the weekend, no question, but that’s because every game Iowa plays while undefeated is #1 on the Big Ten’s radar. Iowa has slowed two good offenses in their home stadiums, which is exactly what they’ll do in East Lansing. Scott Tolzien was on FIRE, until he met the Iowa pass defense zone…and wilted. Same goes for the rattled Daryll Clark. Kirk Cousins is just as good as both of them and probably has better wide receivers. Vegas says pick ‘em, but it doesn’t matter. I won’t bet against this Iowa defense until I have to.

On a side note, Iowa’s wide receivers have been spectacular of late. Trey Stross made a couple Adam Decker-esque catches against Wisconsin, while DJK and Tony Moeaki made big plays in Madison and two weeks ago versus UM.

LAW BUCKEYE predicts IOWA by 14

Come on. You know you want to pick the Spartans. Iowa has lost the last four times they've played in East Lansing. Michigan State has rebounded from a 1-3 start to be staring down the barrel of the Big Ten race. Greg Jones is everywhere. If there's one thing these Hawkeyes haven't done is win big. I think it all clicks Saturday night under the lights as Stanzi plays smart, takes care of the football, and Tight End Tony Moeaki does the rest. Just like that, Iowa is off to its first 8-0 start, ever.

5. No. 8 TCU at No. 16 BYU, 7:30 p.m. EST (10/24)

GRAHAMFILLER10 predicts TCU by 10

Great article in SI a couple weeks ago about how TCU takes 3 star running backs and converts them to defensive players. Apparently they recruit these 200 lb athletes and add 50 lbs, then sit back and watch as these players turn into All-Americans. Not a bad idea – in fact it’s led Texas Christian to the brink of the BCS Top 8. I hitched my star to BYU this year and was rewarded with a 5 touchdown thrashing at the hands of Florida State. What does FSU and TCU have in common? Mmm speed. The Horned Frogs ran into a perfect storm last year, losing to two of the top three teams in the nation, Utah and Oklahoma. This victory in Provo will spur them closer to a BCS berth.

LAW BUCKEYE predicts TCU by 10

Want to tune in for this mid-major marathon? Me too. Too bad it won't be covered on network television. The best of the Mountain West come together in Provo Saturday. Last year the Horned Frogs snapped the Cougars 16 game winning streak in conference. Senior BYU Quarterback Max Hall will try to avoid the warts of last year's 2-interception performance against the number four defense in the country. Sure, BYU shocked then No. 3 Oklahoma in their season opener. But who hasn't? I think TCU's ~~horny~~, ahem, thorny defense suffocates BYU in the thin night mountain air on its way to the BCS.

SB Nation User Blog: Law Buckeye

The Obligatory Predictions Competition - Week 10 Scoreboard

Season Rank

User ID

Week 10 Total Points

Week 10 Rank

Season Total Points

Linebacker Who?

The Obligatory Predictions Competition - Week 10

1. No. 21 WISCONSIN at INDIANA, 12:00 p.m. EST (11/7), Big Ten Network

2. PURDUE at MICHIGAN, 12:00 p.m. EST (11/7), Big Ten Network

3. ILLINOIS at MINNESOTA, 12:00 p.m. EST (11/7), Big Ten Network

4. NORTHWESTERN at No. 4 IOWA, 12:00 p.m. EST (11/7), ESPN

5. No. 16 OHIO STATE at No. 11 PENN STATE, 3:30 p.m. EST (11/7), ABC

The Obligatory Predictions Competition - Week 9 Scoreboard

Season Rank

User ID

Week 9 Total Points

Week 9 Rank

Season Total Points

The Big Ten This Year Versus The Big Ten Last Year

The Obligatory Predictions Competition - Week 9

1. PURDUE at WISCONSIN, 12:00 p.m. EST (10/31), ESPN 2

2. MICHIGAN at ILLINOIS, 3:30 p.m. EST (10/31), ABC

3. MICHIGAN STATE at MINNESOTA, 8:00 p.m. EST (10/31), Big Ten Network

4. No. 3 TEXAS at No. 14 OKLAHOMA STATE, 8:00 p.m. EST (10/31), ABC

5. No. 5 USC at No. 10 OREGON, 8:00 p.m. EST (10/31), ABC

The Obligatory Predictions Competition - Week 8 Scoreboard

Season Rank

User ID

Week 8 Total Points

Week 8 Rank

Season Total Points

D'entre les Morts - Is Iowa Ohio State 2002, Reincarnate?

TRE Appears on Gopher Football Blog Podcast

The Obligatory Predictions Competition - Week 8

1. INDIANA at NORTHWESTERN, 12:00 p.m. EST (10/24), Big Ten Network

2. ILLINOIS at PURDUE, 12:00 p.m. EST (10/24), ESPN 2

3. No. 13 PENN STATE at MICHIGAN, 3:30 p.m. EST (10/24), ABC

4. No. 6 IOWA at MICHIGAN STATE, 7:30 p.m. EST (10/24), Big Ten Network

5. No. 8 TCU at No. 16 BYU, 7:30 p.m. EST (10/24)