Lawless
Apr 12, 2008 Feb 15, 2012 23 390
29 Year old happily married lifelong cardinal fan living in Round Rock, TX. CPA!
a fan of
St. Louis Cardinals
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Solution to the Bullpen Dillemma...
by Lawless on Jul 27, 2008 1:07 PM EDT
on Viva El Birdos
NEWSFLASH - The Cardinals Bullpen is in dissarray. Guess what, a better answer to the current situation is EASY. I am a qualitative first quantitative second kind of guy, but to make others happy and to drive home the point I'll reverse that trend for this fanpost... Quantitative analysis is as follows:
| MAJORS | ERA | FIP | ERA+ |
| Russ Springer | 1.89 | 3.25 | 225.00 |
| Kyle McClellan | 2.84 | 3.70 | 149.00 |
| Jason Isringhausen | 6.01 | 5.12 | 71.00 |
| Ryan Franklin | 3.96 | 5.02 | 107.00 |
| MINORS | ERA | FIP |
| Jason Motte | 3.40 | 2.32 |
| Mark Worrell | 2.45 | 2.93 |
| Chris Perez | 3.74 | 3.94 |
| Matt Scherer | 3.27 | 3.72 |
| Fernando Salas | 3.49 | 3.82 |
| Luke Gregerson | 4.03 | 3.50 |
Now lets talk roles.....
Closer - If you were beamed in from another planet you would say it's got to be Russ Springer. We know, due to age, he needs to be taken care of in a way that requires he not be the closer. There is no doubt Kyle McClellan is the man here. For reference Wainright's ERA out of the bullpen in '06 was 3.12 and he had a 3.31 FIP. Yes, wainright was a marginally better option out of the pen in '06 but the difference is not as great as the brain trust in STL believes when they start talking about moving Mr. Wainright to the pen now (e.g. the difference between Wainright and McClellan is a hell of alot smaller than the difference between Wainright and Boggs/Looper/Piniero). SAVE US TIME MAKE MCCLELLAN THE CLOSER. He is not only our best option at closer this year he will likely be our best option as closer for the next several years. Lets see if we need to go out on the FA market now....
7th/8th Setup - Option 1 is Springer, Option 2 is Franklin, Option 3 is Izzy.
Wild Card - Motte should be in the bigs. Look at his FIP. He is mowing hitters down in the minors. It is unbelievable that Flores is back up with what Motte and Worrell are doing in AAA. We need to give these two a shot and we need to give them a shot now....
LOOGY - Despite what happened with Delgado last night I am still of the belief that Villone is an effective loogy. I DO NOT want to overpay for the likes of Fuentes and Mahay. Lets get the other Burnett (Sean). He could be had on the cheap, is under team control for four more years and could develop into more than a LOOGY. Any second tier prospect would do......
So in summary our bullpen would be:
Closer - McClellan
8th Inning - Option 1 Springer, Option 2 Franklin
7th Inning/ROOGY - Option 1 Izzy, Option 2 Motte
LOOGYS - Option 1 Burnett, Option 2 Villone
Long dude - Doesn't matter, Thompson, Jimenez, Parisi are all decent options
The answer is easy isn't it? I know LaRussa might fuss but this needs to be settled.....
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The 08 Plan
by Lawless on Nov 7, 2007 9:49 PM EST
on Viva El Birdos
I tried to wait until the final free agent list came out to post my 2008 plan for the Cards but I just couldn't hold out any longer. So here goes. I'll break it out by:
- Arbitration considerations
- Free Agents
- Trades
- MILB Considerations
- Roster
- Go forward...
Scrap HEaps BACk ALRIGHT!
by Lawless on Nov 3, 2007 5:03 PM EDT
on Viva El Birdos
Welcome welcome welcome,
The minor league free agent list has been posted at Baseball America and as always I feel as though I need to comb through and provide my feelings on possible hits and misses.
I wrote about this last year and would venture to say my hits and misses were as follows:
Hits!
- JR House - Switching Hitting Catcher who continues to mash with an 830 OPS in AAA this last year - can you say better/cheaper than Bennett?
- Cory Doyne - 12 K/9, Sub 200 BAA, Call up to Majors - Good Arm - Would have been a good use of a 40 man roster spot
- Al Reyes - We all know the story --- this would have been a Grrreeeaattt pick up...
- Kurt Ainsworth - didn't throw a pitch
- Dewon Brazelton - 3.5 ERA with his second team... Filler at this point...
- Sean Burroughs - Got a total of 12 ABs... Huh?
Proposed Trade and Other Stuff
by Lawless on Aug 26, 2007 2:00 PM EDT
on Viva El Birdos
I am of the ilk that Tony LaRussa is one of the main factors that this team is above 500 right now. I also think that as long as Tony and Dave stay Walt will stay (and Jeff will build the farm until it gets the recognition it deserves).
That said, I think Reyes is not a pitcher who is going to stick in STL (as much as I wish he would). So hit the jump and I'll let you know what I would trade him for as well as my plan for the Cards through the rest of this year and in 2008...
Wild Trade Ideas
by Lawless on Jun 30, 2007 7:17 PM EDT
on Viva El Birdos
Quick diary - Essentially - I think the Cards could use a trade or two (if not what else do we have talk about)... The key position I see us in need of is... SS... I also don't see us giving B Anderson a fair shot given Yadi's recent performance... so my proposed trade is:
Bryan Anderson and Jason Isringhausen
to the Angels for:
Brandon Wood and Jeff Mathis
The Angels need a catcher and if we could package Yadi instead I'd go for that, but if I were them I would want Anderson. Izzy could help the team in the playoffs (the alternative is use Izzy as a chip to pick up whatever else they want).
I'd be interested if anyone else has wild trade ideas (and yes I know Wood has been moved to 3B this year, but that is more a function of the Angels backlog at SS than his lack of ability to play there..).
By the way - has anyone seen what Cory Doyne is doing in AAA for the Os.... link... http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Cory%2520Doyne&pos=P&sid=milb& t=p_pbp&pid=449127
A Team Worth Watching...
by Lawless on Jun 29, 2007 9:49 PM EDT
on Viva El Birdos
I am a life long Cards fan and want to submit my view on what would make the Cards a team worthy of watching. Looking at the starting lineup on Monday vs. the Mets I thought - jeez - I can have the Cards on in the background but this lineup is absolute crap! With that in mind...
For this diary - I am going with no rules - plausible trades and anyone in AA or above can be called up - I am also not taking into consideration how "future development" might be hindered... So my new roster would be...
Dance with the one that brung ya?!
by Lawless on May 19, 2007 3:27 PM EDT
on Viva El Birdos
To start things off, lets talk about positives from last night.
- The team kept fighting
- Pujols' 4/4 with a walk and opposite field blast makes one believe he might have regained his stroke
- B. Looper was going to get pounded sooner or later - lets see how he bounces back
- Tyler Johnson continued with his amazing season thus far. I still believe he could be an effective eighth inning guy.
- Eckstein is showing signs of returning to the land of the living
- At the end of the date it is only an L. Reyes is pitching great and will take it too the tigers today
"There is some speculation, within GM circles, that the Cardinals will look to trade Scott Rolen as soon as the team raises the white flag on their season, and Rolen would make sense for the Dodgers, in some respects. He would give L.A. a strong defensive presence at third base, plus some experience, and he could hit in the last four spots in the lineup and not be expected to be one of the main guys. The Cardinals clearly would have to eat a huge chunk of the salary owed to Rolen in the future -- he will make $12 million a year for each of the next three years -- but they could get a decent (but not great) prospect from the Dodgers."
link = http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=olney_buster
My thought is that if we are required to eat any of Rolen's salary AND we could only get a decent prospect for him lets keep the guy. I still am not sold that we could get a better on base man than Rolen at 3B and we sure as hell couldn't get a better defender. He WILL COME AROUND!!! Bill James, Pecota, all know what they are doing. Guys scuffle. If he gets to an 875 OPS at the break and we could eat little or no salary and trade him for a decent set of prospects then I am all for it. But a Tino Martinez fire sale is not right for Rolen...
Draft Pick Swaps and Pay for Baseball Info Quickie
by Lawless on May 14, 2007 10:08 PM EDT
on Viva El Birdos
Two completely different topics:
MLB DRAFT
I am excited to see ESPN2 will be televising the first day of the draft. With that in mind I have always wondered why MLB insists on not allowing teams to trade draft picks. I wanted to solicit the group to see if anyone has any ideas on this? Seems like a decent way to add some excitement...
SUBSCRIPTION BASEBALL INFO
I can't get enough good baseball content and am currently subscribing to ESPN Insider, Scout.com, and Baseball America. I am planning to drop Scout.com and possibly ESPN Insider, but am looking to replace the content. I was looking into baseball prospectus but wanted to see if anyone in the group had reccomendations on good baseball content.
Thanks.
Rasmus - The right time for AAA?
by Lawless on May 13, 2007 3:14 PM EDT
on Viva El Birdos
Colby is hot right now in Springfield. I am a big proponent of the Cards philosophy to take it slow with Colby, BUT in 122 ABs Colby has an OPS of 939 and a walk rate of 10% plus.
Personally, since Colby is in the middle of a prolonged hot streak I would prefer to leave him in AA until he reaches around 300 ABs and take a look at his numbers at that time, but I am interested to get the group's thoughts.
The other, more interesting question, is if he keeps up the production would you give him a September callup and start his arb clock?
Finally what does the group believe Colby's upside potential is? I thought some semi-interesting comps would be:
- Johnny Damon
- Gary Sheffield
- Von Hayes
- Will Clark (the early years - as a hitter...)
- Carlos Beltran?
Old Wounds
by Lawless on Apr 19, 2007 9:01 PM EDT
on Viva El Birdos
Short diary today on an old and dear friend of ours. See if you can guess the friend.
Allbeit 50 abs into a long season, assuming 500 ABs his projected 2007 line is as follows:
OPS - 1.112
SB - 40
HR - 30
Last year his similar numbers for the full season were...
OPS - 942
SB - 37
HR - 33
By now I bet you have all guessed it, but I am really pulling for this guy even though he no longer wears the birds on the bat!
Who is this mystery man???
DOH! Moments
by Lawless on Apr 14, 2007 1:29 AM EDT
on Viva El Birdos
Sometimes I get in arguments with my wife and I swear I am right, drum my chest, and think so for days on end then shortly thereafter figure out I am completely wrong. On a slow Friday night I thought I would throw out some completely off base baseball ideas I have had over the years and see if anyone else has some other thoughts...
- 2001 - JD Drew for Curt Schilling - I knew Drew was going to turn it around and Schilling was like 34 - OBVIOUSLY - on the downhill slide right?
- 12/05 - Robinson Cano and Chien Ming Wang for Jim Edmonds - NO WAY
- 3/05 - ...We should lock up Mulder with the same contract the Braves gave Hudson...
- 1999 - Rick Ankiel will be the pitcher of my generation...
- Larry Bigbie will turn things around with the Birds on the Bat...
- 12/05 - We should sign Ugueth Urbina!
- 2005 - If Adam Wainright hasn't developed the killer instinct now he never will..
- 1988 - Tom Brunansky will probably be just as good as Jack Clark??!!
- 1987 - I don't mind losing Mike Lavallierre (Sp?) and Andy Van Slyke, but Mike Dunne for Tony Pena?!
- 2001 - We are giving up alot for Scott Rolen, Bud Smith could be the next Tom Glavine
- 2000/Every Year - The Cardinals are cheap! Why can't they sign Mike Hampton/Darren Dreifort/Jason Giambi?
The Dupes....
by Lawless on Apr 6, 2007 4:54 PM EDT
on Viva El Birdos
I'd like to start this post off making reference to my "made" philosophy. Given the upcoming "final" season of the Sopranos I thought I would make reference to my "made man" baseball theory.
Read on it gets better
The IPQ
by Lawless on Mar 25, 2007 9:48 PM EDT
on Viva El Birdos
I'm sure someone has wrote of it before, but I think innings pitched in the minor leagues has a direct effect as to the success (or time to attain the success) that follows for MLB pitchers.
I mention this b/c of a few factors, but I will start with an example. Mike Pelfrey is being tabbed as the #5 starter for the Mets (he has less than 100 Milb IP). I have to think that is going to stunt Pelfrey's progress b/c he hasn't developed his secondary pitches (if he was a RP I might buy into it... ala Nick Webber).
Hit read more if you are interested in getting to the point!
Another Scrapheap Special
by Lawless on Mar 1, 2007 10:40 PM EST
on Viva El Birdos
I am infatuated with the scrap heap so after some light reading over at baseball america I came across yet another scrap heap special --- See if you can guess who this "out of options" player is:
Hints:
- BA #35 overall prospect in 2004
- Utility position (OF/2B/3B)
- RH batter
- Career minor league OPS 950+
- Combined 2005/2006 AAA OPS 990 (600 ABs)
- MLB ABs in 2005/2006 - 35
Strange Addiction.....
by Lawless on Feb 20, 2007 9:57 PM EST
on Viva El Birdos
I'm a numbers guy (CPA) and baseball is a numbers game. I have every BA prospect handbook from 2001-2007 and Deric McKamey's minor league baseball analyst. I enjoy vivaelbirdos and have found myself reading futureredbirds often as well. Sucker for numbers and like nothing better than watching a dominant pitcher (circa Rick Ankiel in Y2K).
With than in mind what I find most interesting in Spring Training is watching all of the guys who are out of options that could be had on the "reallllyyyy" cheap b/c the alternative is losing them for nothing. With that in mind a 25 year old starting pitcher "prospect" is out of options this year. Interesting tidbits about this guy:
- In BA prospect handbook every year since it inception (01-07). I don't think there is another player that can "boast" that. (He just turned 25)
- Fastball that peaked at 101 out of high school and pitches typically at 94/95 now while peaking at 96
- Three plus pitches
- 2006 AAA #s - 2.33 ERA, 209 BA Against, 8+K/IP
- Self-nicknamed the "Real Deal"
Another Trade Proposal....
by Lawless on Jan 3, 2007 6:46 PM EST
on Viva El Birdos
If any of you are like me, you have been hurting for some good hot stove talk for the last few weeks. Since its obvious we have no shot at Randy Johnson and there isn't anything that isn't a clear white flag on the SP free agent market I have another idea...
Marlins Needs: RP (preferably closer), CF
Marlins Surplus: AAA SPs
Cardinals Needs: SP
Cardinals Surplus: $s (if you consider the projected $100M payroll accurate)
Proposed Trade:
Encarnacion
Looper (or Kinney) and
Cash - $6M-$8M (could also include Narveson if necessary)
For
Yusmerio Petit and
Renyel Pinto
I would be fully willing to include Kinney in the deal above and might consider some incarnation including Chris Duncan. Read below for my thoughts (fully supplemented by the BA prospect handbook and current stats on Petit and Pinto)
1st Round DP Value and My Solution to our Off-Season
by Lawless on Dec 21, 2006 8:22 PM EST
on Viva El Birdos
Reading through today's post got me thinking about how much a first round draft pick is worth (i.e. theoretically we would pay two first round picks less than fair value for Soup as that is our compensation if he signs elsewhere).
My crude calculation is based on Cards first round picks from 1991-1999 (I used historical years as we don't know how much Lambert, Rasmus, Barton, etc. are "worth" at this point). Based on my crude calculations a first round pick is worth on average $4M more than signing costs. As such, it makes it even less likely that the Cards would sign a guy like Soup (or someone like Loretta for that matter who is a type A, yet not worth the theoretical $4M pick you are giving up).
With that in mind I have to believe that a great solution for us would be as follows:
- Sign Aubrey Huff 2Y $14M
- Trade Rolen for Ervin Santana and pick a prospect
- Trade Wainright for Randy Johnson (believe it or not after considering salaries I think this would be a fairly even trade)
- Trade Reyes to the DRays for BJ Upton and E Dukes
- Sign Crain Wilson 1Y $6M
- Trade Enca to the Marlins (to play CF) for a bag of balls
SP
- C. Carpenter
- Randy Johnson
- Ervin Santana
- K. Wells
- Hawk/Narvie/Brazelton/Ainsworth (I would sit this person anytime there was an extra day off, which would make these guys end up with a collective 15-20 start remeber Matty Mo a few years ago...)
- RF BJ Upton
- LF C. Duncan
- 1B A. Pujols
- CF J. Edmonds
- 3B A. Huff
- 2B A Kennedy
- SS A Kennedy
- C Y Molina
- SS D. Eckstein
- 3B A. Huff
- 1B A. Pujols
- LF C. Wilson
- RF BJ Upton
- C Y. Molina
- 2B A. Kennedy
- CF Skip?
-K
Bill James Fun - Pitchers
by Lawless on Dec 2, 2006 4:47 PM EST
on Viva El Birdos
I am a Bill James believer, so I thought I'd throw out some information I found interesting while perusing his book today (much reccomended by the way - $15 at Amazon.com...
Intriguing possibile available starters with a sub 4 ERA projection:
- Juan Cruz - 28 - 3.90 (in Coors light)
- Tom Gorzelanny - 24 - 3.49
- Clay Hensley - 27 - 3.28
- Rich Hill - 27 - 3.4
- Chuck James - 25 - 3.53
- Greg Maddux - 41 - 3.63
- John Patterson - 29 - 3.87
- Jon Papelbon - 26 - 2.98
- Ervin Santana - 24 - 3.84
- Jason Schmidt - 34 - 3.34
- John Smoltz - 40 - 3.17
- David Wells - 44 - 3.98
- Tim Hudson - 31 - 3.75
Do the Drew?
by Lawless on Nov 25, 2006 5:09 PM EST
on Viva El Birdos
1000 Career OPS against RHP!
I will be the first to admit that in general I have been anti-David Jonathan. I will say, however, that given the #s and Yrs required to sign him in this market he is a bargain.
J.D. could back up Edmonds and play an adequate defense in Right (Juan E). More importantly he could bat either #2 or #4 against RHP (#4 makes alot of sense given his 3YR OPS against RHP of 1.000). His career OBP is 393.
J.D.'s effort could be questioned (and is), his ability to play through pain could be questioned (and is), but if you look at the last three year his only significant playing time missed was a result of an attempted diving catch (which I believe Cards fans will forgive any time). He is the best on the market and reportedly could be had at 5Y/55M. Why wouldn't the Cards pull the trigger when when you can easily say he is as good or better risk that Alfonso and Carlos at half the cost.
Essentially I would offer 90% of the Red Sox up to 12 per for a five year deal and 13 per for a three year deal. He is an elite player at not elite pricing and his mug sells in STL.
I think JD was happy in STL and think he would give a slight hometown discount to play for the Cards. In reality I know what Tony said in Three Nights in August and I know there would be friction there, but in my mind is there any more than with Rolen or Enca? I think not...
My old posts would prove I am not a big JD supporter and I have yelled at my TV many a time, but with Boston as the only competition, he might be had in this market at half the commitment of ALF or Carlos and he certainly is not half the player (i.e. you could sign him for Pierre/Mathews money!). Let the throttling begin!
One more time 1000 OPS against RHP!
The "Other" Scrap Heap
by Lawless on Nov 24, 2006 5:10 PM EST
on Viva El Birdos
Happy Thanksgiving everyone. In our family it is the "man" holiday of the year. Watched TV all day on the HD I bought last weekend (Best Buy sells them with full warranty at half off if the box has been opened - much reccomended).
I digress. The Cards are a team that looks for a deal. Nothing wrong with that. Given that and given the latest baseball america's inclusion of minor league free agents by team I thought I would introduce everyone to a few things I found interesting:
First, here are the names I found interesting enough to write about:
- J. R. House - C
- Kurt Ainsworth - SP
- Dewon Brazelton - SP
- Cory Doyne - RP
- Sean Burroughs - 3B/2B
- Ruben Rivera (Better "prospect" thn Derek J!)
- Carlos Hernandez (Electric stuff 3 yrs ago)
- Dee Brown (836 OPS in AA)
- Bud Smith (2.7 ERA in indy league)
- Aaron Herr (nepotism and an 800 OPS last year - Miles like?)
- Al Reyes (no significant action)
- D. Tank (potential #5?)
- Tim Raines Jr
- Juan Gonzalez?
- Jim Magrane!
- Edgardo Alfonzo
Carpenter Trade!!!
by Lawless on Nov 17, 2006 10:27 PM EST
on Viva El Birdos
While we consider crazy trade ideas how about this one:
Carpenter and Eckstein to the Mets for....
Jose Reyes Mike Pelfrey and Philip Humber
Why the Mets would do it.....
The Mets obviously need an ace starting pitcher next year for their title run (no Pedro, possibly no Glavine). Carpenter is being underpaid at this point by ~ $12M over the next two years (i.e. in the current market he would be worth 2Yrs/$40M in IMO). This deal would also free up enough money to ensure the Mets signing of Zito. Obviously the Cards most marketable contract..... My first offer would include asking for Lastings Milledge instead of Humber, but ultimately I would go down to this deal.
Why the Cards should do it....
Carpenter's value will never be higher. Carp is entering his age 32 season. The Cards have him in an unbelievably favorable contract for 2 more years (2007 and a no brainer option for 2008) and regression to the mean has to be expected. No way we can duplicate this contract in the long term.
Jose Reyes - He will be 23 entering next season, is signed through 2011 at ~ $25-$30M (a definite Bargain). He is the most exciting player to watch and would remind us all of our 80s Cards. IMO the most exciting baseball player to watch day in and day out. Nuff said?
Mike Pelfrey - 93-97MPH fastball which baseball america states is as notable for its sink as its velo. Possible #1 who blew away AA and AAA batters last year, but expendable from the Mets perspective for a proven entity like Carp. He has two plus offerings and an average change. Thats enough when you throw 97 with movement.
Philip Humber - AA pitcher who throws three above average pitchers. Think Anthony Reyes. Lots of injury risk, but #2 ceiling.
The Cards do this deal b/c we got lucky last year plain and simple (we were unlucky in 04 and other years so its all to the good IMHO). We are on a downward run. Next year with the team we could have in place through free agency we are an 85-90 win team. I would rather retool now. With the excess payroll I'd trade for Brian Giles, sign Weaver, sign Ted Lilly and give Blake H a chance for the 5th spot in the rotation. Think 2005 A's.
Short and Sweet
by Lawless on Nov 13, 2006 9:32 PM EST
on Viva El Birdos
Juan Enc for Matt Clement
or
Braden Looper for Matt Clement
Clement's last three years in the NL (at wrigley no less) he had a sub 700 OPS against.
Straight up. I'd do it now. What do you think? Good idea from Lboros related to Juan Cruz. Great defensive replacement for dunc and HR power off the bench.
My Less Crazy 07 Plan for the Cards
by Lawless on Nov 5, 2006 10:03 PM EST
on Viva El Birdos
All. My favorite part of this portion of the offseason is to throw my thoughts out there and decide "what I would do." In case anyone ever actually cares enough to read this, and you care about one thing more than another here is the way I am setting this sucker up:
- Arbitration Decisions
- Untouchables/Cornerstones
- Trade Proposals (iffy vs. must)
- Free Agends to sign
- Minor Leagues to bring up
- My roster??!!
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