SB Nation User Blog: Lawless

Solution to the Bullpen Dillemma...

Lawless — Sun, 27 Jul 2008 15:36:19 -0000

NEWSFLASH - The Cardinals Bullpen is in dissarray. Guess what, a better answer to the current situation is EASY. I am a qualitative first quantitative second kind of guy, but to make others happy and to drive home the point I'll reverse that trend for this fanpost... Quantitative analysis is as follows:

MAJORS	ERA	FIP	ERA+
Russ Springer	1.89	3.25	225.00
Kyle McClellan	2.84	3.70	149.00
Jason Isringhausen	6.01	5.12	71.00
Ryan Franklin	3.96	5.02	107.00

MINORS	ERA	FIP
Jason Motte	3.40	2.32
Mark Worrell	2.45	2.93
Chris Perez	3.74	3.94
Matt Scherer	3.27	3.72
Fernando Salas	3.49	3.82
Luke Gregerson	4.03	3.50

Now lets talk roles.....

Closer - If you were beamed in from another planet you would say it's got to be Russ Springer. We know, due to age, he needs to be taken care of in a way that requires he not be the closer. There is no doubt Kyle McClellan is the man here. For reference Wainright's ERA out of the bullpen in '06 was 3.12 and he had a 3.31 FIP. Yes, wainright was a marginally better option out of the pen in '06 but the difference is not as great as the brain trust in STL believes when they start talking about moving Mr. Wainright to the pen now (e.g. the difference between Wainright and McClellan is a hell of alot smaller than the difference between Wainright and Boggs/Looper/Piniero). SAVE US TIME MAKE MCCLELLAN THE CLOSER. He is not only our best option at closer this year he will likely be our best option as closer for the next several years. Lets see if we need to go out on the FA market now....

7th/8th Setup - Option 1 is Springer, Option 2 is Franklin, Option 3 is Izzy.

Wild Card - Motte should be in the bigs. Look at his FIP. He is mowing hitters down in the minors. It is unbelievable that Flores is back up with what Motte and Worrell are doing in AAA. We need to give these two a shot and we need to give them a shot now....

LOOGY - Despite what happened with Delgado last night I am still of the belief that Villone is an effective loogy. I DO NOT want to overpay for the likes of Fuentes and Mahay. Lets get the other Burnett (Sean). He could be had on the cheap, is under team control for four more years and could develop into more than a LOOGY. Any second tier prospect would do......

So in summary our bullpen would be:

Closer - McClellan

8th Inning - Option 1 Springer, Option 2 Franklin

7th Inning/ROOGY - Option 1 Izzy, Option 2 Motte

LOOGYS - Option 1 Burnett, Option 2 Villone

Long dude - Doesn't matter, Thompson, Jimenez, Parisi are all decent options

The answer is easy isn't it? I know LaRussa might fuss but this needs to be settled.....

Poll

Who should be closing for the Cards?

McClellan

54 votes

Wainright

7 votes

Franklin

2 votes

Izzy

5 votes

Perez

22 votes

For the love of god trade for someone

17 votes

107 votes | Poll has closed

The 08 Plan

Lawless — Thu, 08 Nov 2007 02:49:46 -0000

I tried to wait until the final free agent list came out to post my 2008 plan for the Cards but I just couldn't hold out any longer. So here goes. I'll break it out by:

Arbitration considerations
Free Agents
Trades
MILB Considerations
Roster
Go forward...

Click read more if you dare!

Arbitration considerations - I would try to come to some gentleman's agreement with Percival and Eckstein such that if I offer them Arb they won't accept (much like the Pads did with all their Type Bs last year). Even if I couldn't reach such an agreement I would offer both arbitration and would expect both to exit stage left...

Free agents - Lets face it, the market is weak and the guys who are going to cost big bucks simply are not worth it. Low impact signings:

Milton Bradley if he could be had for 1y/$5M
Michael Barrett if he could be had for 1y/$3M
Corry Koskie if Rolen leaves 1Y/$3M
Reggie Sanders if he could be had for 1Y/$2M

That's it. There is plenty in the way of reclamation projects and if Prior could be had for 1Y $5M with an option I would pony up, but otherwise, with Mulder, Carpenter, and Reyes we have two many projects as is...

Trades - I try to keep these as realistic as possible but I am absolutely certain that many of you will disagree to one extent or another, heck that's what makes this fun. Also, I will freely admit that some of these ideas are pure theivery from other posters (Ben Zobrist for example). What can I say, there are alot of smart people blogging round these parts. So without further ado, here goes:

Zobrist and Baldelli for Franklin and Reyes - The Rays don't need either of these guys and the Cards could use a SS and a RH OFer with upside and cost controlled. The Rays need pitching. Press the dang button already!
Rolen and Looper to SF for Zito and Sanchez - On the face of it this deal would get a huge - HUH? - but from a dig deeper perspective, the SF Giants get out of a bad contract and get an excellent defender with upside in Rolen. To get out of the horrible contract they have to take on a less horrible contract and give up a prospect. Makes sense for the Giants. From the Cards perspective, they get a tough contract, but they also get a #3ish starter that will take the ball everyday. He might average a 4 ERA over the next five years, BUT, he will not embarass you and he will take the ball. By the end of this contract it will be near market. Sanchez is the upside to the deal, he could provide a really good starter and he could be an Anthony Reyes reincarnate with LaDunc.
Finally, I would send C. Perez and pick a C+ prospect to the Indians for Josh Barfield and Andy Marte.

As for MILB, my expectation for individuals that could contribute to the big league club would be as follows:

Rasmus is up mid-year
Worrell is called up day one
Motte is up/down based on need
Hawk/Boggs/Walters/Parisi compete for a job in the middle of the year
Haerther/Stavinoha/Mather - compete for 5th 0F/RH slugger off the bench
Hoffpauir competing for a big league spot as an IF super sub

So that leaves me with a lineup as follows:

Against RHP

SS Zobrist (career MILB OBP 400+)
CF Jim Edmonds (in front of Pu cant't hurt)
1B Albert Pujols
LF Chris Duncan (hopefully he is 1st half Dunc)
RF Rick Ankiel
2B Josh Barfield/Kennedy
3B Koskie/Hoffpauir
C Molina/House

Against LHP

SS B Zobrist
2B Josh Barfield
1B Albert Pujols
CF Rocco Baldelli
C Y Molina
LF Ryan Ludwick
RF R Sanders/R Ankiel
3B J Hoffpauir/C Koskie

Starting Pitchers

Adam Wainright
Barry Zito
Mark Mulder
Joel Piniero
Jonathan Sanchez
Chris Carpenter

Relief Pitchers

Izzy
Springer
Worrell
T Johnson
R Flores
T. Wellemeyer

Bench/Interchangeable

Koskie 3B
Hoffpauir IF
Ludwick OF
Sanders OF
House C
Spezio OF/IF

Payroll - Zito/Sanchez for Rolen/Loop is a wash (in 08 at least). Baldelli would represent about $4M in accretive payroll. So my guesstimate is that you are trucking along with a payroll in the $100M neighborhood. Long term, Zito is a risk, but that's what insurance is for right? AND

Looking to 09 you would have the following core:

Carpenter
Wainright
Zito
Sanchez

Lineup

SS - Zobrist 26
1B - Pujols 28
LF - Duncan 28/29
CF - Baldelli/Rasmus
RF - Ankiel 28/29
C - Molina/Anderson
2B - Barfield
3B - Marte or Free Agent

Not to shabby from my perspective... Anywho, let me know what you think and I am prepared to be hammered for Zito, and if you are interested in hindsight take a look at my posts last year that were bombed: http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/story/2006/11/5/22346/0724 http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/story/2006/11/17/222754/93

Poll

Who gets the better end of a Rolen for Zito deal?

Giants

26 votes

Cardinals

10 votes

Win Win

3 votes

39 votes | Poll has closed

Scrap HEaps BACk ALRIGHT!

Lawless — Sat, 03 Nov 2007 21:03:07 -0000

Welcome welcome welcome,

The minor league free agent list has been posted at Baseball America and as always I feel as though I need to comb through and provide my feelings on possible hits and misses.

I wrote about this last year and would venture to say my hits and misses were as follows:

Hits!

JR House - Switching Hitting Catcher who continues to mash with an 830 OPS in AAA this last year - can you say better/cheaper than Bennett?
Cory Doyne - 12 K/9, Sub 200 BAA, Call up to Majors - Good Arm - Would have been a good use of a 40 man roster spot
Al Reyes - We all know the story --- this would have been a Grrreeeaattt pick up...

Misses

Kurt Ainsworth - didn't throw a pitch
Dewon Brazelton - 3.5 ERA with his second team... Filler at this point...
Sean Burroughs - Got a total of 12 ABs... Huh?

As for this year READ MORE and let me know your thoughts...

Interesting but no longer relevant....

Francis Beltran
Zach Day
RA Dickey
Charles Thomas
Jerome Williams
Clint Nageotte
Dewon Brazelton
Craig Wilson....

As for my picks for a flyer

C - JR House - Bring him in! A switch hitting catcher that "I think" will have an 800 OPS next year - at league minimum? Awesome!
C - JD Closser - Great OBP - Horrible AVG - 768 OPS last year - 802 against RHP - Another good backup catcher option or AAA fodder imho
SP - Jesse Foppert - 27 - 12 IP in two years - Alot like Ainsworth - Could be really good - likely flameout...
SP - Bobby Brownlie - 27 - Another washed up cubs pitcher - but had a 227 average against last year and always was thought to have a great arm... again NRI for spring training...
OF - Joe Borchard - 29 - 1162 OPS last year in AAA. Flamed out many times but always worth a flier in my eyes. Again NRI and give him a shot to hack in the OF - Ryan Ludwick type Pokemon
OF - Tim Raines Jr - 29 AAA- 888 OPS 25 SB - Not a bad fifth outfielder and leadoff hitter?

All in all, we are talking about 2nd catchers and 5th OFers? I know, not horribly important, but if you had Al Reyes last year at the trading deadline that would be worth a B level prospect from a few teams....so.....at least intersting to me.....

Proposed Trade and Other Stuff

Lawless — Sun, 26 Aug 2007 18:00:48 -0000

I am of the ilk that Tony LaRussa is one of the main factors that this team is above 500 right now. I also think that as long as Tony and Dave stay Walt will stay (and Jeff will build the farm until it gets the recognition it deserves).

That said, I think Reyes is not a pitcher who is going to stick in STL (as much as I wish he would). So hit the jump and I'll let you know what I would trade him for as well as my plan for the Cards through the rest of this year and in 2008...

My Reyes Trade:

Anthony Reyes and pick a reliever (say Mark Worrell, Dove, Thompson, Motte - hopefully not Motte, etc etc.) for

Elvis Andrus

Why the Rangers would do it - Micheal Young is signed long term and will remain at SS. My understanding is that he has 5 years remaining on his contract and effectively blocks Andrus at SS. Andrus is a bit of an enigma, but the bottom line is that he is a top 50 MILB prospect (Baseball America, Derick McKamey, and Others) who happens to play SS and is blocked. His numbers aren't outstanding this year, but the fact of the matter is that next year as a AA SS he would be expected to playing most of the season at 19 years old and I would project (for what thats worth) plus defense 350 OBP, maybe 400 SLG, 30-40 SBs. Lots of upside, but blocked for the Rangers.

Also, from the Rangers perspective they get a prospect who (from everyone's perspective) the Cards have horribly mismanaged. Reyes in my eyes is a starter with a #2 ceiling that has a decent chance to reach his potential. The downside for the Rangers is that he is a flyball pitcher, but, I don't think that in itself would preclude the Rangers from doing this deal. I say they are all over it...

Why the Cards would do it - Dunc and LaRussa are fed up with Reyes and visa versa for Reyes with Dunc and LaRussa. Elvis Andrus provides another possible solution for SS with unbelievable upside. This type of player is rarely available but in this case, he is. Andrus hasn't played above high A, so the risk with Andrus is high, but the potential reward is the best SS in the minors think Jose Reyes probably with a bit less power...

What does the group think?

Now for Random thoughts:

The Rangers would also potentially include Edison Volozquez in a deal, obviously the Cards would need to give something up, but that would be an interesting addition to the deal above (EV just doesn't seem like the kind of guy the Cards would typically target due to apparent attitude issues)
I officially hate the walk and ABSOLUTELY do not want to see Kip Wells back next year. He reminds me alot of Tomko. Great stuff, but not likely to ever realize his potential because he doesn't seem to want it bad enough..
As an aside I think the walk is why PJ is AA while Ottavino remains in High A.
Rolen isn't right - He is the key to the Cards success in the upcoming seasons. Hopefully the shoulder heals...
How hurt is Jaime Garcia?
Hawk's 2007 season reminds me quite a bit of the wagonmaker's 2004 season. Lets hope Hawk can follow in Wainright's footsteps.
Why are the Cards leaving Craig in High A? DO you think they have an interest in getting Craig a High A MVP award then moving him to Springfield for the playoffs?
How could the Cards justify not calling up Joe Mather and his 30 HRs (and lefty mashing 1000+ OPS by the way...) or Haffpauir (sp?), or Mark Worrell? These guys have thoroughly earned a call up and I will be very upset when their call up goes to the Kelly Stinnett and Miguel Cairos of the world
Other than the obvious 40 man concerns why wouldn't we call up a young CF with + speed and a 920 OPS in AA? Why wouldn't we call up Chris Perez who has blow away the competition type stuff? Do we really have enough 40 man concerns that this is an issue?
Anyone think that Tyler Greene has supersub potential? I don't think he is the SS of the future but 760 OPS in AA after his horrid 2005 ain't bad and he is athletic enough that I would guess he could play any position but pitcher and catcher and would be a great pinch runner on top of being a power bat off the bench.

OK enough of me randomly going on and on. Thanks to Valatan, Erik, Lboros for the constant posting I can barely think of one thing worth posting per week, so your constant informative posts are much appreciated. Go Cards.

Poll

Who would get the better end of a E Andrus for Anthony Reyes and Mark Worrell deal?

Win-win

10 votes

Rangers

32 votes

Cards

13 votes

55 votes | Poll has closed

Wild Trade Ideas

Lawless — Sat, 30 Jun 2007 23:17:40 -0000

Quick diary - Essentially - I think the Cards could use a trade or two (if not what else do we have talk about)... The key position I see us in need of is... SS... I also don't see us giving B Anderson a fair shot given Yadi's recent performance... so my proposed trade is:

Bryan Anderson and Jason Isringhausen

to the Angels for:

Brandon Wood and Jeff Mathis

The Angels need a catcher and if we could package Yadi instead I'd go for that, but if I were them I would want Anderson. Izzy could help the team in the playoffs (the alternative is use Izzy as a chip to pick up whatever else they want).

I'd be interested if anyone else has wild trade ideas (and yes I know Wood has been moved to 3B this year, but that is more a function of the Angels backlog at SS than his lack of ability to play there..).

By the way - has anyone seen what Cory Doyne is doing in AAA for the Os.... link... http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Cory%2520Doyne&pos=P&sid=milb& t=p_pbp&pid=449127

Poll

Who get the better end of a B. Anderson and Izzy trade from Brandon Wood and Mathis?

Angels

20 votes

Win-Win

10 votes

Cards

21 votes

51 votes | Poll has closed

A Team Worth Watching...

Lawless — Sat, 30 Jun 2007 01:49:53 -0000

I am a life long Cards fan and want to submit my view on what would make the Cards a team worthy of watching. Looking at the starting lineup on Monday vs. the Mets I thought - jeez - I can have the Cards on in the background but this lineup is absolute crap! With that in mind...

For this diary - I am going with no rules - plausible trades and anyone in AA or above can be called up - I am also not taking into consideration how "future development" might be hindered... So my new roster would be...

Lineup vs. RHP

RF - Rasmus
C - Anderson
1B - Pujols
LF - Duncan
3B - Rolen
CF - Edmonds
2B - Greene/Spezio
SS - Miles/Eckstein

Lineup vs. LHP

SS - Eckstein
3B - Rolen
1B - Pujols
LF - Stavinoha
RF - Marti/Duncan
C - Molina
CF - Rasmus
2B - Greene

OK - by my count that would be 13 position players... I've got 6 OF three middle infielders and 2 catchers... I think that's about right.

Chris Carpenter
Adam Wainright
Mike Maroth
Jaime Garcia
Anthony Reyes

Closer - Troy Percival
Setup - Chris Perez
Setup 2 - Franklin
Lefty 1 - Flores or Cate
Lefty 2 - TJ
ROOGY - Worrell or Sillman
Long Relief/Spot Start - B. Thompson

Players traded:

Encarnacion and $2M for a bag of pretzels
Bennett released
So retired suddenly
Izzy to some team for a B- prospect
Looper and Springer to some team for a C- prospect
Mulder to challenge for a spot in 08
Kennedy and $10M to the mexican league for a pink elephant pinata

I left out Ankiel for fun, but if you were to make this exercise a little more realistic you might switch Rasmus and Ankiel - still fun to watch.

I am a bit of a space cadet, but with this team on the field I wouldn't be writing a weird diary instead of watching the game...

Poll

Which team would have more wins, the one above or the Cards on the field these days?

Fantasy Cards

5 votes

Real Cards

16 votes

Lay off the crack rock!

31 votes

52 votes | Poll has closed

Dance with the one that brung ya?!

Lawless — Sat, 19 May 2007 19:27:37 -0000

To start things off, lets talk about positives from last night.

The team kept fighting
Pujols' 4/4 with a walk and opposite field blast makes one believe he might have regained his stroke
B. Looper was going to get pounded sooner or later - lets see how he bounces back
Tyler Johnson continued with his amazing season thus far. I still believe he could be an effective eighth inning guy.
Eckstein is showing signs of returning to the land of the living
At the end of the date it is only an L. Reyes is pitching great and will take it too the tigers today

On a completely different note, the attached Buster Olney quote was quite interesting to me...

"There is some speculation, within GM circles, that the Cardinals will look to trade Scott Rolen as soon as the team raises the white flag on their season, and Rolen would make sense for the Dodgers, in some respects. He would give L.A. a strong defensive presence at third base, plus some experience, and he could hit in the last four spots in the lineup and not be expected to be one of the main guys. The Cardinals clearly would have to eat a huge chunk of the salary owed to Rolen in the future -- he will make $12 million a year for each of the next three years -- but they could get a decent (but not great) prospect from the Dodgers."

link = http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=olney_buster

My thought is that if we are required to eat any of Rolen's salary AND we could only get a decent prospect for him lets keep the guy. I still am not sold that we could get a better on base man than Rolen at 3B and we sure as hell couldn't get a better defender. He WILL COME AROUND!!! Bill James, Pecota, all know what they are doing. Guys scuffle. If he gets to an 875 OPS at the break and we could eat little or no salary and trade him for a decent set of prospects then I am all for it. But a Tino Martinez fire sale is not right for Rolen...

Poll

How will Rolen finish the season?

850+ OPS

4 votes

sub 800 OPS

15 votes

800-850 OPS

12 votes

31 votes | Poll has closed

Draft Pick Swaps and Pay for Baseball Info Quickie

Lawless — Tue, 15 May 2007 02:08:15 -0000

Two completely different topics:

MLB DRAFT
I am excited to see ESPN2 will be televising the first day of the draft. With that in mind I have always wondered why MLB insists on not allowing teams to trade draft picks. I wanted to solicit the group to see if anyone has any ideas on this? Seems like a decent way to add some excitement...

SUBSCRIPTION BASEBALL INFO
I can't get enough good baseball content and am currently subscribing to ESPN Insider, Scout.com, and Baseball America. I am planning to drop Scout.com and possibly ESPN Insider, but am looking to replace the content. I was looking into baseball prospectus but wanted to see if anyone in the group had reccomendations on good baseball content.

Thanks.

Poll

Would you prefer the MLB allow teams to trade draft picks?

No

4 votes

Hell Yes! That would be awesome!

7 votes

Yes

10 votes

21 votes | Poll has closed

Rasmus - The right time for AAA?

Lawless — Sun, 13 May 2007 19:14:22 -0000

Colby is hot right now in Springfield. I am a big proponent of the Cards philosophy to take it slow with Colby, BUT in 122 ABs Colby has an OPS of 939 and a walk rate of 10% plus.

Personally, since Colby is in the middle of a prolonged hot streak I would prefer to leave him in AA until he reaches around 300 ABs and take a look at his numbers at that time, but I am interested to get the group's thoughts.

The other, more interesting question, is if he keeps up the production would you give him a September callup and start his arb clock?

Finally what does the group believe Colby's upside potential is? I thought some semi-interesting comps would be:

Johnny Damon
Gary Sheffield
Von Hayes
Will Clark (the early years - as a hitter...)
Carlos Beltran?

Anybody have other thoughts? Sorry for the unimaginative post, I am just interested in seeing what the group thinks of Colby.

Poll

Who is the best comp for Colby Rasmus?

Steve Finley

22 votes

Carlos Beltran

7 votes

Von Hayes

5 votes

Jim Edmonds

4 votes

Gary Sheffield

0 votes

JD Drew

11 votes

Johnny Damon

25 votes

74 votes | Poll has closed

Old Wounds

Lawless — Fri, 20 Apr 2007 01:01:44 -0000

Short diary today on an old and dear friend of ours. See if you can guess the friend.

Allbeit 50 abs into a long season, assuming 500 ABs his projected 2007 line is as follows:

OPS - 1.112
SB - 40
HR - 30

Last year his similar numbers for the full season were...

OPS - 942
SB - 37
HR - 33

By now I bet you have all guessed it, but I am really pulling for this guy even though he no longer wears the birds on the bat!

Who is this mystery man???

Terry Evans

Poll

What do you project for Terry Evans Future?

Cup O Coffee

8 votes

All Star at Some Point

1 votes

Starting OF

3 votes

4th OF

10 votes

22 votes | Poll has closed