SBNation.com User Blog: LawrenceS

Sorry, who's an idiot? VanSummeren?

LawrenceS — Tue, 16 Apr 2013 22:22:30 -0000

Sorry, who's an idiot? VanSummeren?

I'm amazed when I read this kind of ignorace. We were just chatting about similar prejudice with Quitana.

Yeah, you won much respect with Roubaix, but one shouldn't forget how quickly it can be lost.

Re: Astarloza going alone with 40km remaining in Amstel:

"He [Astarloza] is such an idiot" ..."Well, he is a Spaniard. It's not for nothing that they have great economic crisis. It's what happens when you don't use your head."

2013 Movistar Kit

LawrenceS — Thu, 20 Dec 2012 02:23:41 -0000

2013 Movistar Kit

All blue with the neon "blobject - M" Movistar logo.

No white at all as far as I can tell from the pics in the store.

I preferred it with the white sides as it looked more traditional (except the weird asymmetrical shoulder treatment).

This is very minimal. Not bad, but I liked the White.

Don't Mess with Miguel... Mr. Indurain can still crush it at 46

LawrenceS — Thu, 16 Aug 2012 03:54:01 -0000

Miguel Indurain was asked to participate in a study looking into age related fitness declines and the effects of detraining. Well, no worries, he can still smash it. Even though he's 46, collects tractors and now weighs 92.2kg vs his riding low of 78kg he can hammer out 450W and 4.8W/kg (450W is 5.77W/kg at his riding low of 78 in 1995). His oxygen uptake is still a massive 5.29 l.min-1 (57.4 ml.kg-1.min-1),(*Avg human not training is about 37ml/kg/min) all at a threshold heartrate of 192.

Indurain was long seen as a physical specimen like few, or perhaps unlike any other; his massive power output took advantage of the thick TT years of the early 90's when there were, on average 200km of time trialing in each Tour de France. His dominance in the discipline allowed him the advantage of being able to protect in the mountains and diesel up the big climbs with modest outputs as low as 4.9 W/kg up Alpe d'Huez. (http://www.sportsscientists.com/2009/07/tour-de-france-2009-power-estimates.html)

Good to see he can still spin the rings.

This article details the findings: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22868823

The abstract reads:

"Age-related fitness declines in athletes can be due to both aging and detraining. Very little is known about the physiological and performance decline of professional cyclists after retirement from competition. To gain some insight into the aging and detraining process of elite cyclists, 5-time Tour de France winner and Olympic Champion Miguel Indurain performed a progressive cycle ergometer test to exhaustion 14 years after retirement from professional cycling (age 46 yrs; body mass 92.2 kg). His maximal values were: oxygen uptake 5.29 l.min-1 (57.4 ml.kg-1.min-1), aerobic power output 450 W (4.88 W.kg-1), heart rate 191 bpm, blood lactate 11.2 mM. Values at the individual lactate threshold (ILT): 4.28 l.min-1 (46.4 ml.kg-1.min-1), 329 W (3.57 W.kg-1), 159 bpm, 2.4 mM. Values at the 4 mM onset of blood lactate accumulation (OBLA): 4.68 l.min-1 (50.8 ml.kg-1.min-1), 369 W (4.00 W.kg-1), 170 bpm. Average cycling gross efficiency between 100 and 350 W was 20.1%, with a peak value of 22.3% at 350 W. Delta efficiency was 27.04%. Absolute maximal oxygen uptake and aerobic power output declined by 12.4 and 15.2% per decade, whereas power output at ILT and OBLA declined by 19.8 and 19.2%. Larger declines in maximal and submaximal values relative to body mass (19.4-26.1%) indicate that body composition changed more than aerobic characteristics. Nevertheless, Indurain's absolute maximal and submaximal oxygen uptake and power output values still compare favorably with those exhibited by active professional cyclists."

Good to see he can still spin the rings.

This article details the findings: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22868823

The abstract reads:

Paris Roubaix Tees

LawrenceS — Fri, 06 Apr 2012 17:28:25 -0000

Paris Roubaix Tees

I've seen some art and such for sale before, so I hope it's cool to post these on here. I've been working on a Tee design for Roubaix and this is what I came up with. We're going to print a small run if people wanna get in on them.

We'll be donating $2 of every shirt sold to Les Amis de Roubaix cause they keep the cobbles going.

Any Feedback is appreciated, and thanks for checking them out!

Alejandro Valverde and the 2012 Movistar Team jersey will appear on Tuesday at Telefonica's Flagship store in Madrid

LawrenceS — Sat, 12 Nov 2011 16:14:53 -0000

Alejandro Valverde and the 2012 Movistar Team jersey will appear on Tuesday at Telefonica's Flagship store in Madrid

done.

Win Wool Cycling Wear with just a $10 donation to MS!

LawrenceS — Wed, 14 Sep 2011 19:22:39 -0000

Cima Coppi, handmade wool cycling wear from East Vancouver, Canada, is participating in a fundraising ride for Multiple Sclerosis. MS affects more women and North American women than anywhere else in the world!

Someone(s) will walk away with a Wool Jersey, Wool Cap or the Cima Coppi Track jacket (the grand prize!) for just $10!

Please support the team and make a small donation toward a great cause!

Cima Coppi Blog: http://cimacoppirides.wordpress.com/2011/09/14/multiple-sclerosis-fundraiser-win-a-cima-coppi-wool-track-jacket-for-10/

Cima Coppi MS Team Page: http://mssoc.convio.net/site/TR/BikeTour/General?team_id=1501&pg=team&fr_id=1052

Cima Coppi: http://cimacoppi.ca

Thanks gals and guys!

Someone(s) will walk away with a Wool Jersey, Wool Cap or the Cima Coppi Track jacket (the grand prize!) for just $10!

Please support the team and make a small donation toward a great cause!

Cima Coppi Blog: http://cimacoppirides.wordpress.com/2011/09/14/multiple-sclerosis-fundraiser-win-a-cima-coppi-wool-track-jacket-for-10/

Cima Coppi MS Team Page: http://mssoc.convio.net/site/TR/BikeTour/General?team_id=1501&pg=team&fr_id=1052

Cima Coppi: http://cimacoppi.ca

Thanks gals and guys!

Alejandro Valverde officially returns with Movistar in 2012

LawrenceS — Sun, 11 Sep 2011 19:07:54 -0000

I was away on vacation for a week so perhaps this has already been discussed, (but a quick search turned up nothing). It appears official, now, that Valverde will return with Movistar for 2012.

http://noticiasdenavarra.com/2011/09/04/deportes/ciclismo/unzue-confirma-el-retorno-de-valverde-y-niega-que-este-hecho-el-de-karpets

It comes as little surprise considering Valverde has been riding and unofficially training with friends and Movistar riders in Spain to keep in shape. It's no secret that Unzue has a soft spot for the Murcian. This to me makes Movistar a team more capable of racking up the wins next year if Valverde can hold his previous form, but there will also be many questions about that until he hits the road.

Maybe the biggest question is: How much will Valverde be in the 2012 VDS? 2? 14? 16? 20? 28?

UPDATE: More details coming out on the Valverde signing. The Murcian paper linked below states that Valverde signed with Movistar for 2 years with an option on the third for almost 2million euros per year.

Further, that he was offered more money by both Radioshack/L-T !?!?!? and Quickstep, but not significantly more @ a reported 2.1million per. A drop from his former 3million per, but likely because his WT points won't count for 2 years. Valverde perhaps prefers the leadership role he will be given, and familiarity at Movistar vs the log-jam of riders at LT-Shack and Quickstep?

http://www.laopiniondemurcia.es/deportes/2011/09/13/valverde-mantiene-estatus/350059.html

I was away on vacation for a week so perhaps this has already been discussed, (but a quick search turned up nothing). It appears official, now, that Valverde will return with Movistar for 2012.

http://noticiasdenavarra.com/2011/09/04/deportes/ciclismo/unzue-confirma-el-retorno-de-valverde-y-niega-que-este-hecho-el-de-karpets

Maybe the biggest question is: How much will Valverde be in the 2012 VDS? 2? 14? 16? 20? 28?

http://www.laopiniondemurcia.es/deportes/2011/09/13/valverde-mantiene-estatus/350059.html

I don't understand how you can feel that way about Lance, or why.

LawrenceS — Wed, 25 May 2011 18:10:24 -0000

There has been a lot of talk about Lance lately, understandably. To me, this is further confirmation of something that I have suspected for a number of years and leaves me feeling somewhat sane. Lance doped to win. I once thought that I was the only person in the world who thought his story was too-good-to-be-true, and then over time, more and more people moved from that believer camp to, what I thought was, reality.

Now, that the majority seem to have accepted that Lance did in fact dope to win the Tour. Yet, I'm completed confused by the response in the media to the allegations and evidence that is unfolding. I feel that there are four primary 'personalities' trying to make sense of it all.

1. The Hater - Lance was a cheat, is a cheat and doesn't deserve and recognition for what he's done. He should have all of his wins revoked, and may in fact go to jail for perjury, which is what he deserves. There is no proof everyone was cheating, so he's as despicable as any of the other cheaters we've hated on or worse, cause he was the leader of them all.

2. The Patroit - Lance may have cheated, but so did everyone else. He is still the best Tour Champ in history cause all the others were cheaters too. He is America's champ and he was a extremely talented rider who beat dopers just as he would have beat them if everyone were clean. It sucks he cheated, but he's still the best of that time.

3. The Sympathetic - There are two Lance's here. Lance the rider, who cheated and Lance the person who has done so much for cancer research through philanthropic causes. Leave him alone. It's history, and now we're learning it's not so great history, but, who cares? Let's move on. The guy has done enough good to equal out the bad. Look, the guy didn't invent cheating, he just perfected it and beat everyone else on a level doped playing field.

4. The Believer - Testimony doesn't count as proof, at least not enough proof. I still think he was clean. He is the best Tour de France champ in history, and that's not going to change until someone comes along and beats him fair and square.

Edit: 5. The Indifferent - Don't care, and are done with it. Maybe are interested, kinda like a car-crash, but really, really, just want it to be over, and to be history. (Is that fair?)

I'll admit. Of those four, and I'm sure there are many more, I'm mostly a hater. So sue me. I don't understand why the same people who can hate on "Contadoper", Di Luca, Landis, "Valv Piti", Ricco, Rasmussen, Vino etc. etc. can not feel an even greater disappointment/frustration toward Lance.

I see him as a guy who has the worst possible claims of cheating against him including corruption at the highest level as he should have been suspended for two-years for both the Cortisteroid in 1999 and the Tour de Suisse positive that was "paid-away." That would have changed his history entirely had the sport held Lance to the same standards as everyone else. He actively encouraged doping and was exemplary of what we want out of the sport and it could be argued that although it existed, everyone else just had to keep up to Lance, both on the road and with the drugs.

So, I don't get why people don't feel the same way, and why the media overall, has seemed relatively forgiving.

Why do you feel how you do? Does it change how you feel about other "dopers"?

Edit: 5. The Indifferent - Don't care, and are done with it. Maybe are interested, kinda like a car-crash, but really, really, just want it to be over, and to be history. (Is that fair?)

So, I don't get why people don't feel the same way, and why the media overall, has seemed relatively forgiving.

Why do you feel how you do? Does it change how you feel about other "dopers"?

Six, err Four Day Racing in Burnaby, Canada

LawrenceS — Tue, 21 Dec 2010 17:07:02 -0000

Six, err Four Day Racing in Burnaby, Canada

Tyler Farrar and Svein Tuft in attendance. Should be rad.

Nice event for the Burnaby Velodrome.

WADA praises UCI. Suggest more testing...at night.

LawrenceS — Thu, 28 Oct 2010 17:43:47 -0000

Apparently, WADA and the UCI are trying to repair the marriage. WADA praised the UCI for it's comprehensive testing during the Tour in this article. WADA continues to say that the UCI should consider testing atheletes in the middle of the night to "seriously consider removing the informal knowledge and comfort all riders have in knowing they will not be tested [in the middle of the night.]"

Night testing. hmmm.

I wonder how the riders will feel about being woken after a grueling mountain stage...or before one. Should we care?

Is it reasonable that it comes with the territory of being a professional cyclist that you will be interrupted during sleep to be drug tested?

Are WADA and potentially the UCI going too far?

Bettini, what thinks you?

Night testing. hmmm.

I wonder how the riders will feel about being woken after a grueling mountain stage...or before one. Should we care?

Is it reasonable that it comes with the territory of being a professional cyclist that you will be interrupted during sleep to be drug tested?

Are WADA and potentially the UCI going too far?

Bettini, what thinks you?

Feedback Please - European cycle tour.

LawrenceS — Fri, 21 May 2010 22:31:48 -0000

Ok, I'm off to Europe again to ride, ride, ride my bike and since it's so heavy around here with all the Landis-HHSNBN business, I figured I'd talk about something that makes me happier than that. AND, I'm hoping you people will be game to help out if you can with all your worldly knowledge.

Here's what going down. Each year I do a little tour with my company Cima Coppi, which first was only me, and now will be two and hopefully in the future will be more people who want to join. It's our chance to play 'sponsored rider' for one-three weeks and enjoy the best part about bikes...the riding.

I'll be going to Spain this year, leaving July 10th and Returning Aug.15th. I plan to rider for 2.5-3 weeks of that time. One from July 18th-23rd and then Aug.1ish-Aug 13th or so. I've set up the first week which can be seen on the Cima Coppi Blog right now and I'm looking for feedback on my route from those who have done parts or all of said route.

Also, any suggestions outside of the actual ride prep, which I'm pretty comforatable with, would be very welcomed. So, if you know that there is a better road than one I've chosen, a landmark I absolutely cannot miss, or a tunnel I can't go through, cause you've been there before. Let me hear it. Then, follow the blog as I ride the route if you're down with that kind of thing.

Then, I'll owe you all big time when I'm in a place to include more peeps who want to join in this and hook you up! (mini five year plan hinted at there.)

Awesome thanks!

Lawrence

PS, Other suggestions for the period of Aug1-Aug 13 are also something I would love to hear cause I haven't really planned that out yet. I do know that the Clásica de San Sebastián is on July 31 (so I might ride the route the next day), and the Vuelta a Burgos is on from Aug.4th.

Then, I'll owe you all big time when I'm in a place to include more peeps who want to join in this and hook you up! (mini five year plan hinted at there.)

Awesome thanks!

Lawrence

Only 20 riders in the peloton are doping! (???)

LawrenceS — Thu, 13 May 2010 14:41:03 -0000

"The riders tell me that cycling has never been as clean as now, but according to them there are still about 20 riders in the bunch that are especially 'prepared.'" -- Peter Janssen, former pro team doctor and author of a book called "Bloedvorm" [Blood Form], in which he discusses the dangers of various performance-enhancing substances and methods.

Can this be true? I have a hard time believeing that this statement isn't just a marketing device to sell books, but I'm intrigued by the claim. If so, I would think that riding "clean" would have long reached the tipping point and the supposed 20 (or about 10% of a Grand Tour peloton) could easily be vanquished from the group. That would represent about 1 rider per team. I'm calling a big BS on this statement. Thoughts?

NOTE: PLEASE, out of respect of a focused conversation can we avoid making a "speculative" list of who the supposed 20 riders are, as I think that will be extremely pointless and lead to a nasty conversation. Thanks.

Poll

Do you think it's likely that only 20 or so riders (~10%) are especially 'prepared' within the current peloton?

No way, it's more likely that only 20 are clean

5 votes

Nope, the majority are 'prepared' to win ( >60%)

20 votes

Maybe 10% are rule breakers, but 80%+ are 'prepared' within legal limits

17 votes

It may not be that low, but I think it's the minority ( <40%)

30 votes

Sure, sounds about right to me. I think we're very close to a clean peloton

7 votes

Who cares?!!! Arggh, I'm so sick of talking about doping....unless it's the happenings of the Magic Bus tour

16 votes

95 votes | Poll has closed

Win a Cima Coppi cycling cap

LawrenceS — Fri, 07 May 2010 15:25:44 -0000

Win a Cima Coppi cycling cap

Thursday's contest took a while, but tons of responses and we got a winner. Your second chance is today. Friday's trivia question is up!

Win free swag for the Giro D'Italia!

LawrenceS — Tue, 04 May 2010 16:46:34 -0000

Cima Coppi is having a cycling cap trivia contest in celebration of the 93rd Giro d’Italia because the Giro is awesome and we love it! The first competitions will happen this Thursday May 6th and Friday May 7th at 8:00 PST (15:00 GMT, 17:00 CET) sharp.

The Prize: One free Cima Coppi recycled wool Giro Cycling Cap (MSRP – $35cdn) and applicable shipping fees for each of the Thursday trivia and the Friday trivia. Contest winners will be announced immediately following the podium presentation of the Giro D’Italia prologue stage on Saturday, May 8th.

Check the blog for more details and good luck!

...and check back often because there is likely to be at least one other competition on one of the days of the Giro, but you'll just have to guess which one.

Check the blog for more details and good luck!

...and check back often because there is likely to be at least one other competition on one of the days of the Giro, but you'll just have to guess which one.

Iginla willing to waive no-trade clause

LawrenceS — Thu, 15 Apr 2010 01:04:25 -0000

Iginla willing to waive no-trade clause

"If they don’t want me here and they want to move in a direction or rebuild or believed they could do better, I would look at it," the Calgary Flames captain said Wednesday as the players packed up their belongings at the Pengrowth Saddledome. "Absolutely. You want to play where you’re wanted and have people believe in you."

Trade Iginla...the times, they are a' changing

LawrenceS — Mon, 29 Mar 2010 21:33:16 -0000

Call me a fatalist, if you will, for feeling that the fate of the Flames is already determined to be on the golfcourse...but I'm in looking forward mode. Never shy to step into controversy, or as some might feel, neck deep in my own bullsh*t, I'm of the opinion the the 2010/2011 Calgary Flames should be an Iginla-less team.

Now, it's been long the observation of the frequent contributors to this blog that Iginla seems to be a little Schizo these past two - three years. Some days the Jarome of old (usually beating the heads in of the lesser likes of the league) and with increasing frequency - Jarmoe - his evil alter ego. If you have a hard time remembering Jarmoe, just think of most games against Vancouver, Detroit, or any of the elite teams in the league. At this point, I would even be willing to accept Jarome on some nights and Jarmore on others, but I seem to see the worst of him with growing frequency.

Now, I'm not going to go into rehashing too many of the details of the Jarome/Jarmoe puzzle as it's been well documented, but I would like to address the 'change of times' we are witnessing with the Calgary Flames. In the 2012/2013 season, the league will be facing the last year of Iginla's current contract. Yet, who do we have signed until 2015/16? - Rene Bourque and when I think of Iginla's future it's Bourque instead who interests me the most.

Rene Bourque, is in my mind, the core of the Calgary Flames heading into next season. Around him you can add Kiprusoff, Bouwmeester, and Regehr. Beyond that, Giordano, who is in need of a new contract. It can be easily debated that considering both finances and performance, these players are not even the compliments to the solid core that we once thought we had. Jarome Iginla doesn't make matters any more stable in my mind either.

Consider this. Rene Bourque makes 20 million dollars through 2015/16 at a cap hit of 3.333 million bucks and he's 28 years old. He's a player on the rise, increasing his role and responsibility each of the last two years with the Flames. His average ice-time has gone up from 15:16/game (with Chi) to 16:05/game to 18:14/game. He has set career bests in points and goals in each of the last two years. His zone start is pretty much the same as Iginla's (52.9 vs 51.8) so the advanced stats are a pretty fair comparision:

Bourque: CorsiRel: + 2.8, CorsiRelQoC: 1.287, SAON/60: 24.8, Pts/60: 2.52, TOI/60: 13.72

Iginla: CorsiRel: -4.0, CorsiRelQoC: 0.870, SAON/60: 28.0, Pts/60: 2.25, TOI/60: 16.37

Bourque's advanced stats are significantly superior to Iginla's and his basic counting stats at 24G 30A and 54Pts in 67 games line up quite nicely against Iginla's 32G, 37A, 69Pts in 76. Had Bourque played 76 games this year, he would have ~ 61pts, only 9 less than Iginla all for less than half the cap hit per year going forward. In fact, you could almost buy two MORE Bourque's and a league minimum player next year for one Iginla. The lower number of games played does highlight Bourque tendancy for injury, the one big knock against him...but if you had two of him (or equivalent difference makers), or even three? As well, Jarome may play nearly every game for the Flames in a season, but you'd be kidding yourself to think he's not a liability in a quarter of them, and perhaps not even a difference maker in half.

You can take the comparison further by noting that Bourque almost has double the goals, and the counting numbers of Langkow (if the same # of games are played) for 3/4 the cap hit.

It's true that the Flames have more pressing cap concerns/needs than Iginla. Think Staios, Kotalik, Sarich etc., but Iginla's stardom may provide ways out, with a two-player package being a possibility. It will be tough to move those players on their own merits.

It's my opinion that the value of Iginla is no longer relative to his contract, and the divide is only growing. He's an aging player in decline and although the prospect of having two or three Rene Bourque's seems not only unrealistic, but also unlikely, the man has been locked up at extremely good value for 6 more years, and if it were possible, I wouldn't hesitate to make that exchange. It's time to start building around Bourque, and to turn Iginla's high market value into good returns, and a couple of compliments for Bourque, for a younger, faster more competitive playoff team next year.

Poll

Should we trade Jarome Iginla this off-season?

Yes, definitely.

54 votes

Yes, if we could get true difference makers in return

97 votes

No, he's still an elite player

32 votes

No WAY! He IS the Calgary Flames

119 votes

302 votes | Poll has closed

Now the Canucks have given us reason to worry.

LawrenceS — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 17:55:09 -0000

Canucks sign Luongo to another one of these magic 12 year deals. I wonder what Brian Burke is gonna say about this one? Reportedly 64 million over 12 years....so, a cap hit of 5.3 million until he is 42 years old!

Ouch. I'm thinking Luo has no plans to play until he is 42, and then by Burke and his convincing argument on contract law...it's illegal to structure a contract with no plans to fulfill it. I unfortunately can't find that artical, but there is another one here. The thing is, if the Canucks can get Luo for 5.3 cap hit, that's bad news for the Flames, as it frees up about 1.5-2 million from their salary cap woes versus what he is likely though to be worth (~7 mil/season). The initial reports out here in Vancouver were 4 years @ 28 million, which was quite wrong, BUT if we assume that it was true about the first 4 years then the contract could likely look like this:

7.0, 7.0, 7.0, 7.0, 6.5, 6.5, 6.5, 6.5, 4.0, 3.0, 2.0, 1.0 - 5.3 mil cap. hit (contract to age 42)

or maybe like this:

7.9, 7.9, 7.9, 7.9, 7.9, 7.9, 7.9, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, .750, .750 - 5.23 mil cap. hit (contract to age 42)

Oh, whoops....that's the Marian Hossa contract.

So, it looks like the Flames will have to be facing Luongo for this year and another 8 after that, until he's 38-39 when he'll likely retire and commit 'contractual fraud' according to the ever entertaining Brian Burke. Although, when the new collective bargaining agreement is negotiated, this could all come back to bite the 'nucks in the nutz. We'll see. It's certain though that they are announcing that they plan to pay to win the cup now and borrow against 'the later.' Who is that Rick....Di....something something out in New York?

So bad news for the NHL, who will likely be adding Luongo to the names Hossa and Chris Pronger as investigation cases...

and bad news for Flames fans who will have years and years of being stymied by Roberto Luongo.

At least they have a year to plan for it.

Will the Olympics ruin the Flames?

LawrenceS — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 21:08:57 -0000

As it stands, the Calgary Flames are in an interesting predicament. This is something we hear every time the Olympics rears its head - How will it impact the players who play and their specific regular season teams? The reason why I single out the Flames more than anyone else is for two reasons: First, the Flames are the team I am interested in and see the Olympics as a serious threat to the success of the franchise this year. Second, no other team, as it now stands, has the potential to have such an effect on one Olympic team position (defense) as the Flames.

With Jay Bouwmeester and Robyn Regehr as likely starters and Dion Phaneuf a good bet, team Canada could have half of their top 6 defensive group manned by current Calgary Flames. Now, don't get me wrong, Olympic hockey is exciting hockey, I love watching it and certainly cheering the boys in Red and White. My concern is this: injuries and fatigue.

Beginning Monday, Camp Canada is under way. With questions already circulating the internet on the respective health of both Phaneuf and Regehr do Flames fans have reason to be concerned? Add to this, Jay Bouwmeester , Jarome Iginla and, perhaps somewhat less likely, Miikka Kiprusoff as candidates to play some intense mid-season tournament hockey, does the Flames franchise stand the most to lose by participating in the Olympics?

Considering the NHL regular season schedule is interrupted just prior to the stretch drive to the playoffs and the NHL trade deadline, the games following the Olympic break could make for some interesting personnel changes and team health concerns. So, while we all cross our fingers and hope for a good Olympic camp showing by our Flames contingent, lets hope the guys, at the very least, come to our training camp no worse for wear. And let's also hope that luck extends right through to the closing ceremonies. Go team Calgary...er, Canada.

"I really don’t care how many one-way contracts we have. … I think there’s six kids in (the summer d...

LawrenceS — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 15:22:05 -0000

"I really don’t care how many one-way contracts we have. … I think there’s six kids in (the summer development) camp who are going to knock the (crap) out of some guys for jobs, and I love it. That’s the way it works. Simple. And I don’t have any problem with that. That’s part of being a really good hockey team. The kids have pushed to the point where someone, who everybody thinks is on our team, is not on our team."—GM Darryl Sutter, talking with the Calgary Herald about his team’s makeup for the coming season.

Kipper and the silver lining

LawrenceS — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 21:42:43 -0000

So, I have been working on some detailed calculations regarding goaltending, and a goalie's metric,which I hope to complete before the seasons beginning but I thought I would start with this: Why I still have slight hope for Miikka Kiprusoff.

Now, before I get into the numbers, I would like to state that I believe and have always believed that the goaltenders position is subject to many team and coaching factors which cannot be captured when looking at sv%, even strength sv%, or even sv%n. I also do agree that when looking for a quick metric to rate goaltenders by sv% is the most fitting. However, as you will see in the example below, there is often misleading information hidden in the years end sv%. I think that although Miikka's performance has dropped off the last couple of years, the "what have you done for me lately?" mentality, and the idea that Kiprusoff is a below average goalie is not considering the whole picture.

I am here to say that Miikka Kiprusoff's ceiling is not his record last season, which was this:

GP - 76, W - 45, L - 24, OTL - 5, SO - 4, GA - 209, SA - 2155, SV% - .903, GAA - 2.84, MP - 4418

But instead, should look more like this, or slightly better:

GP - 76, W - 45, L - 24, OTL - 5, SO - 4, GA - 189, SA - 2155, SV% - .912, GAA - 2.57, MP - 4418

Here is why I assert this claim: The stinky 7 games from last season which sunk Kipper's season:

Oct.9 Loss - 6-0 Van (Kipper 6GA) 23 shots – 0 ppga - 60min

Oct.11 Loss - 5-4 Van (Kipper 5GA) 34 shots – 0 ppga - 60min

Nov.6 Win - 7-6 NSH (Kipper 6GA) 29 shots – 2ppga 2shga - 60min

Nov. 9 Loss - 6-1 Chi (Kipper 6GA) 27 shots – 2 ppg - 60min

Nov. 13 Loss - 6-1 SJ (Kipper 4GA) 46shots – 4 ppg - 20min

Mar 1st Loss - 8-6 TB (Kipper 6 GA) 32 shots – 3ppga - 40min

Mar14th Loss - 8-6 Tor (Kipper 6 GA )30shots – 2 ppga - 42min

In these 7 games Miikka was slaughtered, as was the entire Flames team, giving up an average of 31.58 SA, 45 goals (of which Kipper surrendered 39) 15 special teams goals against and both goalies had a save percentage of a stomach turning .796!

The one thing that you will notice is Mike Keenan's tendency to stick with Kiprusoff regardless of how he was playing. In the seven games he was pulled only 3 times. On four occasions he played the entire game even though he allowed 23 goals in those four games. Was their no faith in the backup? Was there a grudge being exercised? Who knows? The point is this, Kipper and the team were being sent a message early in season. Only once did Keenan pull Kiprusoff prior to 5 goals against, and in most cases 6 was his magic number, which I doubt will be the case under Brent Sutter. I would point this out as a serious mis-handling of the goaltender on Keenans part at the very least, and very likely a team implosion - of which Kiprusoff should not be singled out for.

Two scenarios interest me from this:

Had Kipper kept his season's statistical performances in those 7 games (which was not steller) his season's record would look like this: (this has recalculated his stats @ .903 sv% in those 7 games vs an ~ .796)

GP - 76, W - 45+?, L - 19+?, OTL - 5, SO - 4, GA - 189, SA - 2155, SV% - .912, GAA - 2.57, MP - 4418

And had he not played those 7 games at all, his season's stats appear like this:

GP - 69, W - 44, L - 19, OTL - 5, SO - 4, GA - 170, SA - 1979, SV% - .914, GAA - 2.21, MP - 4076

I believe this raises an interesting question: How well could have Miikka Kiprusoff played had he been managed better by Mike Keenan? Now, I fully understand that if you went through the league and took the worst games any goalie played off the books, it would be very favourable for that goalie. I do think though, this is an extreme example where the Flames played 6 or 7 games by my memory where they were terrible and goaltending was not to be forgiven, but hardly to be blamed.

Side note - Keenan is also a coach who has a long standing reputation for destroying goaltenders. Roberto Luongo, who many believe is the best in the league, had some of his worst years under Keenan in 01-02 and 02-03 with a huge turn around in 03-04 after Keenan resigned. He has publicly stated that he hated playing for Keenan.

What this means, is that outside of these seven games and including all other high scoring affairs against the Flames, Kiprusoff faired quite well. A .914 sv% is just one-one thousandth less than Steve Mason's vezina finalist .915% or good for about 20th in the league, where .918 is good for 8th. A 2.21 GAA would be good for second in the league behind only Thomas @ 2.10 and ahead of Mason @ 2.29. He also would have continued to easily lead the league in wins if these seven games were stricken from the record, (which makes sense because they were mostly horrific blow-outs.)

In conclusion, a more appropraitely managed Miikka Kiprusoff shows the potential to perhaps return to Vezina candidate form given the right circumstances. Will he? I don't know, likely not. Is it fair to do this analysis? I don't know, perhaps not. One thing I do know, is that Kipper shouldn't be given the shaft due to seven lousy games by the entire team and coach.

Value Contracts

LawrenceS — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 18:20:09 -0000

Regarding the Flames so far, I was shown to this link by you Kent, from a previous post. I had never seen it before and found it very interesting. Hockey Numbers breaks down players by value and then allows the comparison against the contract itself (note: not the cap hit). It's quite interesting. Here are a bunch of the Flames (Value first then contract amount and then lastly I have added the current cap hit.)

Forwards we have built around

Iggy - 5.3mil value / 7mil actual / 7 cap

Lanks - 3.3 / 5 / 4.25

Joker - 2.5 / 5.3 / 5.25

Middle six forwads

Bourque - 4.4mil value / 1.2mil actual / 1.35 cap

GlenX - 3.2 / 1.2 / 1.2

Moss - 3.0 / 0.6 / 1.3 (now)

Recent departures

Lombo - 5.1mil value / 1.6mil actual / 1.8 cap

Cammy - 3.9 / 3.3 / 6.0 (now)

Bert - 1.9 / 2.0 / (now ?)

Defense

Phaneuf - 6.1mil value / 7mil actual / 6.5 cap

Reggie - 3.0 / 4.6 / 4.0

Pardy - 2.5 / 0.5 / 0.7 (now)

Keeper

Kipper - 7.4mil value / 8.5mil actual / 5.83 cap

Big Bouw and Boyd

Bouwmeester - 2.1mil value / 4.9mil acutal / 6.68cap (now)

Boyd - 0.4 / 0.7 / ?

I don't know how much we can take from these calculations, or the exact details of how they are calculated, but I don't disagree with many of them. I am surprised to see Bouw and Reggie come in as low value contracts and a bit surprised to see Kipper as a value contract???

I think the middle six players we would all agree were high value, so no contention there.

I also think if we had Iggy for 5.3, Langkow for 3.3, and Jokinen for 2.5 (10.8 for all three) that we would all be smiling, but we don't. Instead it's a 16.5 million cap hit for the three of them. Are we overpaying are high-end stars based on their performance?

Another question going forward, with the salary cap likely to drop next year is are we playing way to much for our defensive unit? I was reading a comment today that "The Montreal Canadiens had their big three on the blueline in Larry Robinson, Guy Lapointe and Serge Savard. Maybe no team will ever equal that kind of top-end defense corps again. However, Calgary has incredible potential to boast [they have done this with] three top-flight defensemen with the addition of Jay Bouwmeester to a crew that already boasts Robyn Regehr and Dion Phaneuf."

But are they worth all that dough? I think so.

Lastly, what happens next year when Bourque, Glen X and Jokinen all see their contracts come to an end?

One thing is for certain, the financial challenges facing the Flames going forward will be as brutal as recently signed Canuck Andrew Raycroft who was listed by hockey numbers as having a value of $0. At least there is that to smile about.

Dallas signs Warren Peters

LawrenceS — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 23:05:41 -0000

Dallas signs Warren Peters

There goes some depth from the farm.