SB Nation User Blog: Leland Roling

Strikeforce Evolution Preview: Muhammed "King Mo" Lawal, Mike Whitehead Clash in Heavyweight Action

Leland Roling — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 14:20:06 -0000

The end of the work week is slowly approaching, and those of you who are secretly awaiting your fix of mixed martial arts action will have to look no further than Saturday night as both the WEC and Strikeforce are on tap to provide the masses with some very entertaining match-ups. While the WEC will infuse the weekend with relentless and tenacious action of the lighter weight classes, Strikeforce: Evolution should provide both casual and hardcore fans some quality match-ups between some of the more well-known names that the sport has produced.

The first bout on the Strikeforce: Evolution main card will feature former three-time U.S. Senior National wrestling champion and one-time Division I NCAA All-American Muhammed "King Mo" Lawal (5-0) taking on IFL veteran and The Ultimate Fighter Season 2 contestant Mike Whitehead (24-6) in a heavyweight tilt. Lawal is relatively green in the sport with only five fights to his credit with wins over Travis Wiuff, Fabio Silva, Ryo Kawamura, and his most recent coming against PRIDE legend Mark Kerr. Whitehead's most recent victory came at Strikeforce: Lawler vs. Shields as he defeated Kevin Randleman via unanimous decision, and he's managed to go 15-1 in his last 16 fights since his loss to Keith Jardine at UFC 57. His only loss within the streak was to UFC veteran Renato "Babalu" Sobral at Affliction: Banned.

This will be Lawal's second foray into the North American market as he's been one of the more popular attractions in World Victory Road's Sengoku promotion in Japan. His "King Mo" persona features him as a king with a scepter, robe, crown, and sometimes a throne with beautiful performers who dance provocatively next to him. He also managed to have his own song made in which he asks crowds to participate in the chanting of his nickname. The act has been fairly popular in Japan, and it vaulted him into main event status on a number of Sengoku cards.

But Lawal isn't simply a performing attraction in a circus. Most fans don't have a real understanding as to how good Muhammed Lawal is on the mat, but he might be one of the best wrestlers in the world to transition to mixed martial arts. He never won a NCAA Division I championship, but he did manage to become the 2002 NCAA Division II champion and placed third in 2003 at Division I. Two years later, he became a U.S. National team member placing 7th at the World Championships and won the U.S. Senior Championships three times. In fact, he was considered the #1 wrestler in the world at 84kg for three straight years before delving into mixed martial arts.

Obviously with that kind of background in wrestling, his major strength within his skill-set is his wrestling and ground game. He has some of the most explosive takedowns for the weight class, and his strength and power from the top position is immense. He'll be looking to put Whitehead on his back and pound him out in this bout, and the only real question is whether he'll stand and bang with the former IFL fighter in the opening rounds. Lawal's stand-up has been one of his weaker areas as he throws wide, looping punches, but Whitehead isn't exactly a fleet-footed fighter who will completely evade all of those shots. Lawal could catch him and end it on the feet as well.

Whitehead offers a very high experience factor in this fight. He has decent wrestling ability, good submission techniques from the top, and he's an average striker on the feet. Lawal will need to be especially aware of the keylock and kimura submissions from the top, but he'll also need to be very aware of the power that Whitehead presents in more dominant positions. He's knocked out plenty of good fighters on the ground, and Lawal will need to avoid that at all costs.

The Randleman fight wasn't really a great selling point for Whitehead, and Lawal is ten times the wrestler that Randleman is at this point in his career. That's mostly due to the fact that Randleman has dropped off considerably in skill over the years and as he's aged while Lawal has shown explosive ability in his wrestling. Whitehead will have a lot to deal with in stopping Lawal's relentless takedowns, and I really don't think he will be able to contend with Lawal's top control power. Whitehead should have a slight advantage standing, but Lawal's massive punching could catch him. While I think Whitehead might be able to stay away for a short period of time, Lawal will eventually put him on his back and thrash him with powerful punching. I'll take "King Mo" Lawal via TKO.

Poll

Muhammed "King Mo" Lawal vs. Mike Whitehead -- Who's your pick?

Can the UFC Provide B.J. Penn With a Challenge at Lightweight?

Leland Roling — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 21:40:48 -0000

Photo by Mark Weber, CommercialAppeal.com

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B.J. Penn's dominating victory over what many fans considered to be the only legitimate challenge left in the weight class in Diego "Nightmare" Sanchez was one of the most impressive performances we've seen from Penn during his current reign as champion. Not only did his conditioning last against a high energy opponent like Diego Sanchez, but his vaunted striking game completely broke the mentally strong Sanchez as the fight progressed. Diego's telegraphed one-two combinations as he moved forward were his undoing in the striking department, and his takedown attempts were futile against the flexible and well-balanced B.J. Penn. If other fighters in the division had some sort of idea as to how to attack Penn in possible future bouts, Penn sent a scary message to anyone hoping to attain a shot at his belt.

One of the significant questions coming out of Penn's victory over Sanchez is who will actually challenge Penn in the future. The UFC's lightweight division doesn't offer too many challenges on paper at this point, especially after watching Penn completely dominate Sanchez. A lot of fans are throwing Frankie Edgar's name into the mix as he's been one of the more successful lightweight fighters, but Gray Maynard was able to defeat him. Both men are the only two fighters remaining in the USAT/SBN lightweight rankings' top ten with Edgar sitting at #5 and Maynard at #6. If the UFC actually pits either fighter against Penn in the future, he'll be one step closer to completely crushing every opponent in the UFC that resides in the top ten among lightweights in the world.

The next move would be for the UFC to begin looking outside of its walls to find a challenge for Penn. They've been able to inject some talent into the welterweight division, but can the same be done at 155? It's highly doubtful. Shinya Aoki is currently the only real fight for Penn, and while he's jockeying for a new contract in Japan with the potential to come stateside -- there is a very real possibility that Aoki is "talking the talk" in order to gain a bigger contract from DREAM.

Most fans believe Aoki wouldn't give B.J. Penn a challenge, and a lot of fans continue to push the point that Aoki would have problems with the top five lightweights in the UFC. I wouldn't disagree with that assessment as Aoki has deficiencies in his striking game, and B.J. Penn hasn't been taken down at lightweight since his bout with Takanori Gomi nearly six years ago. Interestingly enough, Gomi will also be a name that will be thrown into the talk, but he's dropped off substantially in performance over the course of his last few fights. At this point, I don't think Gomi could last more than two rounds with Penn.

Gomi would purely be an acquisition to capitalize off his past victories and fame, but it probably won't come to fruition as Gomi is likely asking for huge money for that past fame. He's nowhere near the fighter he once was, and Aoki would probably ask for big money as well. It's questionable whether the UFC would be willing to pay that out for a couple of fights that would see either top five UFC lightweights or Penn dominate.

What's left on the table? Penn has mentioned the fact that he will probably make a splash into the welterweight division again in the future. He may hold off and take on someone like Maynard, Edgar, or Florian for a second time, but after those victories -- the UFC will be in somewhat a tight spot in trying to find him challenging bouts. Will he simply sit on the shelf while the division works itself out? I don't think he will. There would have to be some significant acquisitions along with one of the acquisitions pulling off some incredible wins to gain a shot at Penn. I think fans would be waiting around for quite a long time if the UFC plans to do that.

Do fans want to see a GSP vs. Penn III? I'm sure Penn will be excited for the rematch, but I wonder if it's truly a compelling fight for fans since the second bout was a dominant performance for GSP. Would a catchweight be a better idea for that fight? Or should the UFC create match-ups at 170 like that of what Silva is doing in the light heavyweight division? That idea is a little more interesting, and the UFC might be able to eliminate some of the top guys from AKA in the mix for the title by justifying a Penn victory over a guy like Fitch or Swick.

The second possibility is the move up in weight of some of the WEC's elite fighters such as Mike Brown, Jose Aldo, or Urijah Faber. The WEC's lightweight class isn't too impressive, but Aldo's skill-set at 145 is very compelling. Great jiu-jitsu, impressive takedown defense, and wicked fast, powerful striking. That's a fight a lot of people would want to see.

A challenge will be tough for Penn to find at 155. I imagine he'll move up in weight for a few fights and there might be a possibility the UFC promotes GSP vs. Penn III in the future, but I don't see any other possibilities for Penn within the next year or two.

UFC 107 Preview: Can B.J. Penn Defeat the Relentless Pace of Diego Sanchez?

Leland Roling — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 14:56:18 -0000

The UFC's Lightweight division will once again be in the spotlight on Saturday night at UFC 107 as the current UFC Lightweight champion B.J. Penn (14-5-1, 10-4-1 UFC) will aim to defend his title for the third time as he'll take on The Ultimate Fighter Season 1 champion and welterweight transplant Diego Sanchez (21-2, 10-2 UFC). Penn is coming off a fourth round submission victory over past challenger Kenny Florian at UFC 101 while he was previously defeated by Georges St. Pierre in an attempt to win the UFC Welterweight title at UFC 94. Sanchez is coming off two straight wins following his move to the lightweight division. He defeated both Clay Guida and Joe Stevenson via decision.

As with every B.J. Penn fight, the focus really comes down to whether Penn will show up in shape for this fight. He looked to be well-conditioned against Kenny Florian and used his great takedown defense to stifle nearly every attempt that Florian made to take him down. A lot of fans felt he looked a bit hefty in the face during his interview on Saturday night, so we'll truly see whether he shows up in shape or he'll try to rely on his talent to win him this fight.

Stylistically, B.J. Penn always has the edge. Not only is he a top talent in Brazilian jiu-jitsu when it comes to molding it to MMA, but he's also considered to be one of the top strikers in the sport. His quick jab and blazing fast combinations easily catch opponents without our knowledge most of the time... until we actually see blood begin to drip from his opponent's face. His takedown defense is legendary, and its base comes from his impressive flexibility.

Diego's main focus has been to become a complete fighter. After leaving Greg Jackson's gym in Albuquerque, New Mexico, he made a home at The Arena gym in San Diego, California with Brazilian jiu-jitsu legend Saulo Ribeiro and 2004 Olympic Silver Medalist wrestler Stephen Abas. He's currently a brown belt under Ribeiro, and he trains his striking with Tony Palafox, a highly-respected trainer who trained Frankie Sanchez, Joey Gilbert, and Zach Cutler in boxing.

There are some problems for Diego in this fight. First and foremost, he isn't much of a finisher, and he really never has been. While he has the skills to compete with some of the best in the world, he's rarely been able to put away opponents. Seven of his twelve bouts in the UFC have went to decision, but his opportunity in this fight could come in the latter rounds if Penn happens to gas out.

Secondly, Sanchez's striking isn't on par with Penn's abilities in the stand-up game. This is probably the biggest disparity in terms of talent between the two. Most fans would point out the Sanchez vs. Stevenson fight as a prime example of that, and I think Penn will absolutely dominate Sanchez in the striking department if he intends to stand with him.

How does Sanchez win this fight? His wrestling and conditioning should be the primary force of his attack. We know Penn has great takedown defense, but Sanchez will need to use his wrestling skills to topple the great B.J. Penn to his back, avoid submission attempts and sweeps, and punish Penn for most of this fight from top control in order to wear out Penn. If Penn trained any less for this fight than his previous battles, Sanchez could possibly pull the upset off in a battle of attrition.

There are some x-factors in this fight. As Anton Tabuena pointed out in this post, Penn has brought in Efrain Escudero and Ben Henderson to push his pace in anticipation for the tenacity that Sanchez will bring to this fight while Sanchez has hired a strength & conditioning coach Steve Maxwell leading up to this fight to improve his overall strength. Sanchez states he's significantly stronger, and he'll be able to punish Penn. Penn has worked to counter that problem. The chess match has already begun.

In the end, I can't pick against Penn in this fight. Sanchez's striking has never impressed me, and B.J. finds ways to punish opponents with it. The huge question is whether or not Sanchez can continually put B.J. on his back and punish him. I think there is a possibility he can do it, but Sanchez's tenacious pace has left him open to counters in the past. Penn will completely destroy Sanchez in epic fashion if he throws wild bombs while progressing forward, and we saw some of that against Stevenson. I'll go with Penn via decision.

Poll

Will Penn retain the title, or will we have a new champion in Diego Sanchez?

B.J. Penn

1199 votes

Diego Sanchez

318 votes

1517 votes | Poll has closed

UFC 107 Preview: Frank Mir, Cheick Kongo Set for Classic Striker vs. Grappler Showdown

Leland Roling — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 14:31:21 -0000

The UFC's heavyweight has been criticized in the past for being rather shallow in terms of talent. In the last few years, there wasn't a huge disparity in the number of fighters in between the champion and the bottom of the division, but the infusion of fighters like Cain Velasquez, Shane Carwin, Todd Duffee, and Patrick Barry has increased the numbers and legitimate talent in the division. Of those prospects, both Velasquez and Carwin have put themselves into prime positioning to fight for the title while Duffee has exploded onto the scene and Barry continues to have a little hype surrounding him following his destruction of Antoni Hardonk.

One of the more important heavyweight bouts we'll see in the next six months will be the UFC 107 bout between Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist and former UFC Interim Heavyweight champion Frank Mir (12-4, 10-4 UFC) and French Muay Thai/Savate striker Cheick Kongo (14-5-1, 7-3 UFC). Mir is currently trying to make his way back toward the top of the division in hopes of a rubber match with Brock Lesnar after being completely dominated at UFC 100 at his own game. Kongo is looking to rebound from his loss to Cain Velasquez at UFC 99 after nearly punching Velasquez out in each of the three rounds, but subsequently succumbing to Velasquez's wrestling background for much of the round.

There's no mystery how each fighter will approach this fight. Mir isn't going to come out and try to prove that he has K-1 level striking as he's said in past fights. He'll be looking to work his exceptional ground game to transition from submission to submission to catch Kongo's lengthy limbs. Kongo will want to work his reach and power from a distance with the help of his Muay Thai background to punish Mir. It's a simple, straight-forward fight that has a lot of interesting questions that will be answered.

The first of those questions being whether or not Kongo has learned from his previous bout with Cain Velasquez. While Mir doesn't have explosive takedown ability, he does have the ability to gain takedowns through precise timing. Kongo's inability to block takedowns has been the sole reason he isn't an undefeated fighter. His length isn't exactly an asset in Mir's world on the floor, so he'll need to quickly get back to his feet if he finds himself on his back.

The question for Mir is whether or not he'll be able to find a way to take Kongo down before being peppered with range attacks from Kongo. I don't want to hear the arrogant Mir tell me he'll beat up Kongo on the feet. We all know where this fight will go if Mir wants to win. Kongo nearly KO'd Velasquez on three separate occasions, and Mir doesn't have the explosive legs that Velasquez possesses. It might actually be an easier task for Kongo to hit Mir in the chin than Velasquez.

Ultimately, I have to go with Frank Mir in this fight. He seems to be more focused on actually working his ground game than actually trying to prove he can strike with anyone in the division. He also happens to be one of the only heavyweights in the world with such a highly-credentialed grappling game, and he has the ability to latch onto limbs and never let go. That'll come in handy against the taller Kongo, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a heel hook or leg submission in this fight. In any case, I think Mir pulls off the submission victory here.

Poll

Who will win? Mir or Kongo?

Frank Mir

922 votes

Cheick Kongo

579 votes

1501 votes | Poll has closed

UFC 107 Preview: Kenny Florian, Clay Guida Prepare for War of Attrition

Leland Roling — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 21:12:42 -0000

While UFC 107 features some solid match-ups in the heavyweight and welterweight divisions, the event is truly a showcase of the UFC's lightweight talent. In the first main card lightweight battle of the evening, Kenny Florian (11-4, 9-3 UFC) will look to rebound from his UFC 101 loss to B.J. Penn against the well-conditioned whirling dervish of hair that is Clay "The Carpenter" Guida (25-10, 5-4 UFC). Guida is coming off a split decision loss to Diego Sanchez at The Ultimate Fighter: U.S. vs. U.K. Finale.

I won't beat around the bush in the breakdown of this fight. It doesn't look like a bout that Guida can win without some sort of improvement in his striking ability, and I've grown rather tired of the hearing the same old line from Clay Guida that his striking continues to improve. We first heard about this improvement when Guida fought Marcus Aurelio at UFC 74, but we didn't see it in that fight, nor have we seen any sort of significant improvement in any fight leading up to his last bout with Diego Sanchez.

Florian, on the other hand, improved substantially from one fight to the next over the course of his six-fight win streak following his loss to Sean Sherk at UFC 64. Not only has he become a solid Muay Thai boxer on his feet, but his ground game has evolved into a dangerous weapon in his arsenal. He is definitely one of the most well-rounded fighters in the division, and Guida will have a very tough time trying to exploit any weaknesses he can find.

One weakness that Guida is always good at exposing is the conditioning of his opponents. Most fans would say that Guida is a below average to average striker with good wrestling ability, but nearly every fan who has watched a Clay Guida fight would say his conditioning and ability to create a torrid pace is his greatest attribute. In fact, his win over Mac Danzig was a textbook example of how quickly Guida works and wears out his opponents, and even in his losing efforts -- he has pushed some of the best fighters in the division to the brink of losing.

This is a fight that resembles many of Guida's past wars. His opponent is better in nearly every facet of the sport, but the x-factor comes down to the tenacious pace that Guida can set from the beginning. In the past, he hasn't been able to capitalize as Huerta came back from the brink of unconsciousness to win and both Sanchez and Tyson Griffin edged him out. Can he capitalize and defeat Kenny Florian?

While I'm a huge fan of Clay Guida, I can't rationally pick him in this fight. I've been very disappointed in his improvement in his striking, almost to the point where I've written him off. The fact of the matter is that he needs to add some sort of weapon to his pace, and the best weapon would obviously be a technical striking game that's accurate and powerful. He lacks that right now, so unless he shows up with a dynamic boxing game that will actually land on Florian's chin -- he's probably going to be peppered in this fight.

The only real chance that Guida has is by smothering Florian on the floor, and I think Florian has the Brazilian jiu-jitsu know-how to stop Guida in his tracks. Florian has never shown any real holes in his conditioning, so Guida will need to hit the cage running in order to press Florian. If he can do that, he might have a shot at the upset. In the end however, I have to go with Kenny Florian via decision.

Poll

Pick your horse... Clay Guida or Kenny Florian?

Clay Guida

549 votes

Kenny Florian

958 votes

1507 votes | Poll has closed

UFC 107 Preview: Can Lightning Strike Twice for Mike Pierce Against Jon Fitch?

Leland Roling — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 20:05:46 -0000

The UFC's welterweight division may have a fresh face in the mix at the top of the heap as the surprising wrestling abilities of Mike Pierce (10-2, 1-0 UFC) will take on American Kickboxing Academy fighter and former contender Jon Fitch (20-3, 10-1 UFC) in a bout that could put Fitch back on track at a title shot or put Pierce on the map as a legitimate talent in the weight class. Fitch enters this contest riding a two-fight winning streak with victories over Akihiro Gono and Paulo Thiago while Pierce's lone UFC win came against Brock Larson at UFN 19 in which he was a heavy underdog going into the bout.

Stylistically, this could make for an incredibly boring chess match of wrestling ability. Both Fitch and Pierce come from wrestling backgrounds as Fitch was the captain at Purdue University while Pierce wrestled for Portland State University. Fitch has some competent striking ability and I'd probably give him the edge in that department, but Pierce's surprising wrestling ability is the real focus in this fight due to the importance it has in both fighters' skill-sets.

A lot of fans complained about Mike Pierce's gameplan against Brock Larson. If you didn't get a chance to see it, a majority of the fight was spent on the ground with Larson trying to defend against Pierce's top control game. Unfortunately for fans, Pierce wasn't able to unload a hellish fury of blows from the top in order to end the fight quickly. Larson continually grabbed arms for futile kimura attempts hoping he could get back to his feet and change the pace of the fight. At every instance, Pierce shot, gained the double leg, and explosively dumped Larson on his backside. It was truly amazing to see how easily he was able to outwrestle a veteran who is primarily known for his wrestling ability

The post-fight argument among fans was that it was one of the most boring fights of the year, and I'll agree that it probably didn't win any of the hearts of the UFC's brass. But a win is a win, and I'd reiterate Joe Rogan's stance that if you can't stop it, keep on doing it. That's exactly what Pierce did, and it paid off with a victory.

Now, Pierce will have the opportunity to try to do the same to a much more seasoned veteran in Jon Fitch. The major difference, however, is that Fitch can provide some offense on the feet, and we haven't seen a whole lot from Pierce in terms of punching prowess. Fitch hasn't faced a great wrestler in awhile with the exception of Georges St. Pierre. Diego Sanchez provided a stiff test, but Pierce should provide a difficult challenge as well.

I'm trying not to overlook Pierce here, but the fact of the matter is that Fitch should be better in every aspect of this fight. He also happens to have one of the best camps in this sport in American Kickboxing Academy. Pierce has Rick Story up at Brave Legion (formerly Braveheart Fight Club), but will that be enough? I'm not banking on it. I'll take Jon Fitch via unanimous decision in this bout.

Poll

Who takes the cake? Jon Fitch or Mike Pierce?

Jon Fitch

995 votes

Mike Pierce

100 votes

1095 votes | Poll has closed

UFC 107 Preview: Experienced Paul Buentello Meets the Youthful Stefan Struve

Leland Roling — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 17:57:37 -0000

In all sports, we often see battles between youth and experience as older veterans of a sport put their years worth of competitive knowledge into action against their younger counterparts in a test to see whether the old veteran has gasped his last breath in professional sports or if the youthful challenger has what it takes to compete. In the UFC, we see these types of battles on every card. Bouts like Mike Pierce vs. Brock Larson or the battle between Jon Jones and Stephan Bonnar are more recent examples, but there are plenty of examples throughout the history of sports that pit these very different attributes against one another.

Saturday's UFC 107 is no exception. Former UFC heavyweight contender and Strikeforce veteran Paul Buentello (27-10, 3-1 UFC) will make his UFC return against Dutch-born fighter Stefan Struve (17-3, 2-1 UFC) in a battle that pits the 35-year-old power punching veteran against the lanky 21-year-old grappler. Struve will enter this contest following a victory over Chase Gormley at UFC 104 via triangle choke in the first round. Buentello beat up Fedor Emelianenko protege Kiril Sidelnikov back in January on the Affliction:Banned card.

On paper, Struve will enjoy an eight inch height advantage over his opponent and a 84" reach. Buentello's highest recorded reach sits at 77", giving Struve a 7" reach advantage in this fight. While that seems like a incredible amount of length for Buentello to overcome, Struve has a susceptibility to punchers. Most notably, Junior Dos Santos and Denis Stojnic were both effective in their striking, although Struve pulled off an incredible comeback victory over Stojnic.

There are a number of questions to be answered in order to predict how this fight will go down. Can Paul Buentello strike against a much larger opponent like Struve? He certainly has the power and quickness to land on opponents, but it's tough to say whether the quickness of his jabs will work against such a tall opponent. Santos was able to do it, and he was also able to land cleanly on Struve a number of times, buckling him at the knees. Could we see a repeat of that performance?

Buentello's list of previous opponents doesn't inspire confidence as he's fought the who's who of old timers past their prime. His last few competitive fights have been either losing efforts or against unseasoned talent. But he also hasn't had the opportunity to fight in more competitive match-ups in quite some time. The UFC offers that opportunity, and Buentello should take it on Saturday night.

Another question might be whether Buentello can stop a takedown attempt from Struve. I'm not exactly sure if he'll be able to handle such a tall opponent, but I do know that Buentello won't try to wade in Struve's guard. The only way this fight is heading to the ground is if Struve gains the takedown, and he won't have an easy time as Buentello has shown good takedown defense in the past.

While I think Struve has more than a submission chance to win, it's not going to be easy. Buentello's takedown defense is good, and he has a very quick jab combined with knockout producing overhands that could flatten the young Dutchman. Gormley made the mistake of trying to wade in Struve's guard, but I highly doubt that sort of gameplan has ever crossed the mind of Paul Buentello in the last few months. I'll gamble on Buentello with a victory at UFC 107, but Struve might be a good upset pick for bettors.

Poll

Who's your pick? Buentello or Struve?

Paul Buentello

696 votes

Stefan Struve

609 votes

1305 votes | Poll has closed

UFC 107 Preview: Up-and-Comers, Veterans Stock Undercard With Six Promising Battles

Leland Roling — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 15:43:34 -0000

After a disappointing event on Saturday night that featured Houston Alexander dancing around the cage, Jon Jones using illegal elbows to crush Matt Hamill (He still would have won), and Marcus Jones being completely dominated by bad striking, it's time for some better fights. Hopefully, UFC 107 will provide some better action. It will take place this coming Saturday, December 12th from the FedEx Forum in Memphis, Tennessee LIVE on pay-per-view. The main event will feature a lightweight title bout between the current champion B.J. Penn and challenger Diego Sanchez. Before we delve deep into the main card bouts, let's take an in-depth look at UFC 107's undercard match-ups.

In one of the more notable battles on the event's preliminary card, Muay Thai specialist Alan Belcher (14-6, 5-4 UFC) will take on American Top Team-product and Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt Wilson Gouveia (12-6, 6-3 UFC) in middleweight action. Both men will enter the contest coming off losses as Belcher lost a hard fought split decision to Yoshihiro Akiyama at UFC 100 while Gouveia was stopped in the third round by Nate Marquardt at UFC 95. This will be Gouveia's first fight back after suffering a back injury that caused him to pull out of his UFC 102 match-up against James Irvin's replacement, Ed Herman.

The size of Alan Belcher is always a constant topic of discussion when we talk about him. He's an immense fighter for the weight class, and it offers advantages and disadvantages. He has a lot of power to throw around, but his striking slows down considerably as the fight moves on due to his bulk. Gouveia has more of the natural middleweight build with above average striking ability coupled with a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt ground game. There is an opportunity to Belcher to put his power to work against Gouveia, but Gouveia has more options as he should be the better fighter on the floor.

The fight really comes down to whether Belcher can be effective on his feet without being put on his back. Gouveia will likely try to punch with Belcher in this fight, so he'll need to avoid the head kicks and powerful leg kicks of Belcher. If Belcher can stay off his back and keep a good pace, he has a good shot at winning. My only fear is that he'll become fairly tired as the fight goes on and slow down considerably. Gouveia doesn't have the greatest gas tank either, but Belcher's bulk becomes a hindrance rather than an advantage at that point. I don't think this will be a one-sided drubbing, but Wilson Gouveia should be able to finish Belcher -- especially if a gassed Yoshihiro Akiyama was able to put Belcher on his back.

The second middleweight match-up on the UFC 107 undercard will feature former M-1 Challenge fighter Lucio Linhares (13-4, 0-0 UFC) making his UFC debut against fellow Brazilian jiu-jitsu submission artist Rousimar "Toquinho" Palhares (9-2, 2-1 UFC). Linhares has beaten notable fighters such as Sean Salmon, Karl Amoussou, Toni Valtonen, and Robert Jocz. A couple of stints against better competition in Thales Leites and Tomasz Drwal didn't bode well for him early in his career, but he's improved considerably since those days. Palhares enters the contest after defeating Jeremy Horn via decision at UFC 93. He was scheduled to fight on Saturday night at The Ultimate Fighter 10 Finale, but Alessio Sakara pulled out due to injury.

While Jordan Breen will tell you that Linhares' Fight Finder picture alone is a reason to pick Linhares in this fight, I'll stick with what I know. Both men are formidable Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts, but Linhares will have an enormous size advantage in this match-up. He'll come in at 6'2" to Rousimar's 5'8" frame, and that should be a big advantage for Linhares in terms of striking with Palhares. Interestingly enough, all of Palhares' opponents in the UFC have been much bigger than him, and it hasn't given them a significant advantage.

The outcome of this fight will come down to the more controlling ground game unless Linhares crushes Palhares early with punches. Palhares' ground game is very good, and he has a repertoire of slick submission skills, quick transitions, and bone-crushing leg locks. In fact, the leg lock, one of the tougher submissions in MMA to pull off, is Palhares' most dangerous weapon, and it somewhat helps that his opponents are much lengthier than him when trying to pull it off. I think Linhares is smart enough to avoid the lock, but I think Palhares might be able to out grapple Linhares on the floor in this one. I'll take "Toquinho" via unanimous decision, but don't be surprised if he snaps a limb ala Daniel Acacio and Fabio Negao. I'd look out for the betting line on Linhares though. It might be ripe with value.

Four-time NCAA All-American and two-time NCAA Division I wrestling champion Johny Hendricks (6-0,1-0 UFC) will make his second appearance in the UFC as he takes on newcomer Ricardo Funch (7-0) in welterweight action. Hendricks enters the contest following a mild upset victory over The Ultimate Fighter Season 7 winner Amir Sadollah at UFC 101. Funch will make his debut riding his seven-fight undefeated record with his most notable win coming against Anthony Waldburger.

Ricardo Funch is out of Team Link in Ludlow, Mass., the same camp that UFC heavyweight fighter Gabriel Gonzaga leads along with the housing prospects Karen Grigoryan, John and Chris Manley, Alexandre Moreno, and Brian Olsen. The camp once housed PRIDE veteran Paulo Filho as well. His team is made up of multiple Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts to help him with his ground game, but he mostly uses that vaunted game to gain position on opponents and pound them out.

This is a little tough to call. Funch doesn't have any sort of size advantage, but his striking might be a bit better than what Hendricks has to offer. The problem I see, however, for Funch is that Hendricks seems to be improving his power and striking ability. He manhandled Sadollah in the clinch and landed multiple uppercuts, and he's definitely bulking up in size. He's had three months to continue that line of preparation. He also happens to be one of the better wrestlers in the division, but will he suffer the same fate as Jake Rosholt, arguably the most heavily credentialed wrestler in the sport who was cut by the UFC after losing to Kendall Grove? I'll take Hendricks via TKO in this match-up.

The Ultimate Fighter Season 9 runner-up DaMarques Johnson (9-7, 0-1 UFC) will make his second appearance in the Octagon following his loss to James Wilks at the Season 9 Finale against Mexican mixed martial artist Edgar Garcia (7-1, 0-1 UFC). Garcia comes into the contest following a controversial split decision loss to Brad Blackburn at The Ultimate Fighter Season 9 Finale. Johnson is currently riding a two-fight losing streak, and he'll look to stave off being cut by the promotion with a victory.

The most worrying problem for Johnson is his strength of record. While Jason Reinhardt still takes the cake for padding his record with horrible competition, DaMarques has a lot of wins against sub .500 competition. Ryan Williams defeating him before his stint on The Ultimate Fighter doesn't give me a whole lot of confidence that he can beat a very capable Edgar Garcia either.

Johnson has a well-rounded skill-set, but I question whether or not it's actually good enough to beat the better competition of the UFC. My answer would be a resounding "No" at this point until we see some improvement. Will we see that improvement on Saturday night? I'm not optimistic, and Garcia's knockout power could be Johnson's undoing. Garcia has a fairly well-rounded game as well, but I think his big power, boxing, and wrestling will be enough to defeat Johnson. I'll take Garcia via TKO.

The final welterweight bout on the preliminary card will pit Canadian submission specialist T.J. Grant (14-3, 1-1 UFC) against the Brazilian jiu-jitsu techniques of Kevin Burns (7-3, 2-2 UFC) in a fight that could see the loser heading back to the minors. Both fighters are coming into this fight following losses with Grant dropping a decision to Dong Hyun Kim at UFC 100 while Burns was stopped by Anthony Johnson at TUF Finale 8 and lost via decision in a "Fight of the Night" performance against Chris Lytle at UFC Finale 9.

Stylistically, both men would prefer to be on the ground. Burns has a purple belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu while Grant is a purple belt under former UFC fighter Jorge Gurgel. It would seem that both men are equals, but Grant has a very large repertoire of submissions on the ground ranging from arm triangles to kimuras to armbars to heel hooks. Burns hasn't mastered the submission game in such a manner, but he did manage to submit one of the better Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioners in the sport in Roan Carneiro at UFC 85 via a triangle choke.

I see this fight being a problem for Grant in the striking department because he'll mostly be trying to work for the takedown while Burns has, at the very least, average striking ability. Grant really doesn't have the hands to compete with Burns in this fight, and Burns could simply avoid the ground in favor of a boxing match to eek out a decision win here. I'll take Kevin Burns via decision.

Lastly, The Ultimate Fighter Season 5 contestant Matt Wiman (10-5, 4-3 UFC) will take on Hawaii-native and B.J. Penn-trained Shane Nelson (12-4, 2-1 UFC) in lightweight action. Wiman enters the contest on a two-fight losing streak, dropping decisions to both Sam Stout and Jim Miller at UFC 97 and UFC: Fight for the Troops respectively. Nelson is coming off a decision loss to Aaron Riley at UFC 101.

I won't delve too deep into this one, but the loser could see themselves being thrown out on the street by the UFC. Nelson's inability to finish fights is the major argument against him in this bout, and Wiman is actually a pretty well-rounded fighter who just isn't good enough to beat the talent living in the middle of the division. There are better punchers in the lightweight division than Wiman, and his ground game isn't formidable enough to give anyone a real problem. Nonetheless, he should be able to dispatch of Nelson with quick hands and a good pace. I'll take Wiman via decision.

Poll

What's the best UFC 107 preliminary card match-up?

Alan Belcher vs. Wilson Gouveia

799 votes

Matt Wiman vs. Shane Nelson

59 votes

Johny Hendricks vs. Ricardo Funch

84 votes

Rousimar Palhares vs. Lucio Linhares

202 votes

DaMarques Johnson vs. Edgar Garcia

47 votes

Kevin Burns vs. T.J. Grant

51 votes

1242 votes | Poll has closed

Will the Comcast/NBC Deal Give the WEC a Viable Business Model?

Leland Roling — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 16:03:02 -0000

December 3rd, 2009 might go down as one of the most important days in mainstream media history as Comcast secured a deal to buy a 51% majority stake in NBC Universal, which means Comcast now has the majority decision-making duties of a media conglomerate that has revenues in the ballpark of $50 billion dollars per year. Fanhouse's Mike Chiapetta mentioned a number of positive effects from the deal as Versus would likely be turned over to NBC and run by NBC Sports' head Dick Ebersol. While Ebersol has historically disliked the idea of mixed martial arts on network television, Chiapetta points out that it is possible a cable television presence might be possible. He also mentions that the subsequent content war could bring the UFC in as a viable option for FOX or ABC.

One of the interesting topics related to the deal is Zuffa's World Extreme Cagefighting (WEC) promotion. The promotion inked a new extension with Versus one day before the majority stake in NBC was sold off to Comcast, securing it as a staple of the Versus network for quite a long time. Interestingly enough, most pundits and analysts believe that Comcast will try to vie for a stake of the mainstream sports market by pushing Versus up against sports' giant ESPN:

But Comcast’s impending acquisition of NBC Universal will certainly set off an effort to turn Versus into a viable alternative, if not a full-fledged competitor, to ESPN, The New York Times’s Richard Sandomir writes. Under Comcast’s ownership, Versus has transformed from the Outdoor Life Network to OLN, then, in 2006, into its current incarnation.

What does this mean for the WEC? Firstly, the WEC did produce some of the best ratings for Versus. Secondly, Zuffa did manage to secure a deal with Versus before the buyout, although I'm fairly positive that NBC executives were likely in on that deal. Hopefully, that means they have an invested interest in promoting the WEC within the new scheme.

The positives are that the WEC could be one of the hot commodities on a newly-launched NBC cable sports channel that will be within most families' basic cable package versus the extended sports package that it currently resides on in Comcast's line-up. While the WEC will be one of the better options in the first couple of years, there is no doubt that NBC Sports will use their $50 billion in revenue to attract bigger fish to replace Bull Riding and the Tour de France. Depending on where the WEC would be slotted, it could benefit from the constant viewership in terms of putting its advertising in front of its demographic or attract outliers from the 18-34 demographic.

Of course, there are plenty of negatives that I feel have been overlooked. Ebersol hasn't been a fan of MMA, and while NBC has slotted Strikeforce in late night slots with success and now Bellator... are they ready to take it under the wing of NBC Sports? With such a large bankroll, a new cable channel would likely vie for more NFL games and MLB coverage, two sports that would likely gain a priority over the WEC.

The WEC's current business model and demographic might fit perfectly into this scenario though. One thing many fans overlook is the WEC's model for success, which is mapped along the same course of what the UFC has done over the course of its existence. The UFC progressively won fans, media, and even politicians over a lengthy period of time, and Zuffa likely feels that it will take time to build the WEC. If we really look at it with that expectation, the WEC is fitting that exact mold. The real problem comes when we look at the present heading into the future.

The major problem on the horizon is the WEC's entry into the PPV market. We heard from multiple sources that the WEC would enter the PPV market last year, but an event never came to fruition on PPV due to what many believe was the DirecTV-Comcast debacle over Versus and the loss of ways to promote the card. Interestingly enough, MMAWeekly.com is reporting that Reed Harris has stated that a PPV is "definite" in 2010 and the DirecTV dispute could be resolved as soon as the end of the year:

Talking with MMAWeekly Radio on Monday night, Harris said all signs are pointing to satellite subscribers getting their WEC fights back sooner rather than later.

"The last thing I heard a couple weeks ago is they were both talking and they had both come back to the table to discuss it, and I had heard that maybe we would be back on by Dec. 19, so that's what I'm hoping for," Harris commented.

The promotion’s next event is WEC 45: Cerrone vs. Ratcliff on that date in Las Vegas.

The other confirmation Harris disclosed is that the WEC will absolutely be on pay-per-view by the end of 2010, but once again, sooner may be the call rather than later.

During The Ultimate Fighter Finale on Saturday night, Josh Gross tweeted an interesting question. Would you buy a PPV that featured Frankie Edgar at 145 vs. Jose Aldo for the title with possibly another division title up for grabs. Throw on either Torres or Faber for more draw, price it around $40. Would you buy that card?

Most answers were likely on the negative side of the fence due to the $40 price tag, but that type of card might be considered a success if it pulled in somewhere in the neighborhood of 150k - 200k in PPV buys. Considering Brown vs. Aldo produced 400,000 viewers and Faber vs. Pulver produced 1.5 million viewers, there is a market there to make some money on PPV.

The mistake would be to work in too many PPVs over the course of the year, and my major argument against the PPV revenue way of business was that the new Comcast/NBC could potentially be a way to ramp up revenues and viewership for the WEC. As Gross pointed out to me, rights fees would have had to increase incredibly with the new deal, and we aren't privy to the exact details of the deal. Of course, a new network with the NBC name would help with the task of selling more PPVs along with advertising spread across Comcast's entire network and NBC-owned channels.

There are obviously some incredible dangers to wading in the PPV market. Most fans and writers believe the WEC is selling themselves too high right now in believing they can pull substantial numbers. This isn't the UFC though. They work on smaller venues, less expenses, and they don't require over 400,000 buys to be considered a huge success. 100,000 might actually be a starting point for them, and I think they might be able to actually break that with enough names.

Ultimately, the Comcast/NBC deal combined with WEC's ambitious PPV plans could be the perfect business model for the promotion to move forward. Putting a majority of the WEC events on the new Versus/NBC cable channel with the prospect of a reality series to build some newer stars, more events, and advertising throughout the NBC network of channels should bring in more viewers. While they won't make incredible money with their current rights fee deal, it will feed their new PPV model. We're not talking 9 or 10 PPVs a year though. Start out small, build the fanbase. Two or three a year at the most.

Sure, it'll take some time for the WEC to truly see some great numbers in the PPV market, especially with the UFC's saturation, but it's a much better option than the current option... continually riding out year after year on the same network that has poor ratings and the PBL, the UFL, and the Tour De France to help support it. I've given up on merger thoughts right now, but I still see it as a great option the UFC is missing out on. For now, the Comcast/NBC deal should help the WEC progress into the future, and it's likely why Zuffa signed the extension. Now it's up to NBC Sports and Comcast to figure out exactly what they'll do with Versus.

Poll

How much would you pay for a WEC PPV card featuring Urijah Faber, Miguel Torres, Jose Aldo, Brian Bowles, possibly Frankie Edgar?

TUF 10 Preview: Can Matt Hamill Stop the Undefeated Jon Jones?

Leland Roling — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 17:38:24 -0000

In our final preview of The Ultimate Fighter Season 10 Finale, explosive Greco-Roman wrestler and unpredictable striker Jon "Bones" Jones (9-0, 3-0 UFC) will battle The Ultimate Fighter Season 3 contestant Matt Hamill (7-2, 6-2 UFC) in an outstanding clash of wrestling talent. Hamill enters the contest following a spectacular head kick knockout of wrestler Mark Munoz at UFC 96 while Jones is still riding an undefeated record following a win over Jake O'Brien at UFC 100.

Stylistically, both men have strong suits in the wrestling department. Hamill is a three-time NCAA Division III wrestling champion out of the Rochester Institute of Technology while Jones was a national Junior College champion at Iowa Central Community College where he trained with current fighters such as Cain Velasquez and Joe Soto. There has been a lot of debate as to which fighter will truly be able to win the wrestling war as Hamill has deceptive strength, but Jones has shown immense power in his Greco-Roman wrestling by using leverage to powerfully throw opponents around the cage.

The major difference comes in the striking department. Hamill has what many would call a "wading" style of boxing. He likes to wade into opponents with his hands and throw quick jabs to set up bigger punches. He doesn't really stand at a distance and explode, but rather lurks into his opponent's defense in order to tangle. It has worked at a limited capacity in some of his fights, but it has mostly been used to get close to a clinch and takedown scenario rather than actually punching opponents out.

Jones will bring a completely unorthodox style of striking to this fight, and he'll be very explosive and unpredictable. Spinning elbows, backfists, knees, and powerful clinch work will all come into play. Hamill has shown some explosiveness of his own with a head kick of Mark Munoz, but Munoz was fairly worn down and showed poor defense in that fight. Jones won't make the same mistake.

Hamill is definitely a threat on the ground from top control as he has the power to control guys and punish them, but Jones probably has more power and strength with a lengthier frame. He should be able to outwrestle Hamill, but I think the striking game is ultimately going to be where Jones succeeds and Hamill fails. Jones' immense reach advantage coupled with his ability to throw around Hamill will be Hamill's undoing in this fight. A lot of fans think Hamill has the chops to stop Jones from tossing him around, but does he have the striking game to stop Jones from peppering his chin? I don't think he does.

I'm going with the consensus favorite in this fight in Jon Jones. His length, reach, power, and strength all combine to make him something much better than anything Matt Hamill can muster up. Look for a finish by Jones in this one.

Poll

Who will win? Jones or Hamill?

Jon Jones

875 votes

Matt Hamill

324 votes

1199 votes | Poll has closed