SB Nation User Blog: Leland Roling

UFC 100 Gambling Spotlight: Undercard Preview

Leland Roling — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 15:53:15 -0000

It's once again time for all you degenerate gamblers like myself to place your bets. Mike Fagan will be focusing on the main card soon, so I'll be focusing on the undercard odds courtesy of BestFightOdds.com. Let's take a look at the current lines:

UFC Light Heavyweight Division: Mark Coleman (+300 - BetCRIS) vs. Stephan Bonnar (-325 - Sportsbook)

Mark Coleman possesses the wrestling acumen to be a real danger to Bonnar if Bonnar succumbs to being put on his back continuously in this fight. The major problem with Coleman is that he remains one-dimensional in his fighting style while Bonnar should be the more dynamic fighter in having more skills to finish this fight. At +300, Coleman isn't exactly a bad bet if you are prospectively looking for some value to make some big money on. You'd have to really think about whether Coleman has actually improved his gas tank, but also if time has caught up to Coleman. My money is on Bonnar.

UFC Lightweight Division: Matt Grice (+120 - 5Dimes) vs. Shannon Gugerty (-140 - 5Dimes, BetCRIS)

This bout was a bit of a pick'em in our staff picks, so it's no surprise that the match has similarly close lines. Grice has a solid wrestling background while Gugerty has a good jiu-jitsu base coupled with solid boxing skills. He'll also be a bit lengthier. Grice isn't a bad underdog bet here.

UFC Light Heavyweight Division: Jon Jones (-370 - 5Dimes) vs. Jake O'Brien (+310 - 5Dimes)

While I think Jones has a good chance of winning this bout, the disparity in the lines has underdog bet written all over it. O'Brien could lay n' pray his way to victory, and we have yet to see Jones on his back for any length of time. O'Brien is a great bet here while Jones at -370 is pushing the limit for big money making.

UFC Middleweight Division: CB Dollaway (-240 - Sportsbook) vs. Tom Lawlor (+215 - BetCRIS)

I think Dollaway has the skills to defeat Lawlor in multiple areas, but the ground game should be the deciding factor. He'll be able to position himself in ways that he could either submit or TKO Lawlor into next week, but he'll want to stay away from the stand-up game most likley. At -240, it's a solid bet to make.

UFC Lightweight Division: Mac Danzig (+168 - 5Dimes) vs. Jim Miller (-190 - BetCRIS)

This is an interesting line. Danzig isn't exactly an easy fighter to pick against, but Miller has show a relentless work ethic in the cage along with decent stand-up ability and good submissions. At -190, I'd take Miller in this matchup over Danzig, but Danzig is definitely something to think about at +168.

UFC Welterweight Division: T.J. Grant (+205 - Bodog) vs. Dong Hyun Kim (-210 - BetUS)

I like Kim in this fight, but Grant has a solid chance at producing an upset win here. +205 is a great value bet, but I'm leaning toward Kim at -210. I think his conditioning could be a problem, but he's proven to be tough as nails in his Japanese matches. He's got some solid striking ability, and his Judo game could put him in top control to finish Grant.

Betting analysis

I can't remember a card that was so tough to pick in terms of odds. It's been quite awhile, but there are some huge upset bets that could payout significantly for anybody willing to take risks. Grant, Danzig, O'Brien, Grice, and Coleman all have legitimate shots at wins. O'Brien has the most enticing line in my opinion.

My main card picks will be GSP, Lesnar, Henderson, Akiyama, and Fitch. I'll likely stay away from the Fitch line, but there may be some value in pushing some small bets on Alves, Mir, and Bisping. It's such a tough card to call in terms of parlays as well, so I really haven't decided on the best course of action. Be prepared for some big losses if the upsets come through against the favorites, but if you are ballsy enough to mix the underdogs in and come out on top... you earned it. Happy Betting!

UFC 100 Preview: Brock Lesnar Proves That Size Does Matter

Leland Roling — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 14:28:37 -0000

UFC 100's climactic finish on Saturday night will feature a rematch between former WWE superstar professional wrestler and current UFC Heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar and former UFC Heavyweight champion and current interim UFC Heavyweight champion Frank Mir. It promises to be a true clash of technique vs. strength. In their first match at UFC 81 in February of 2008, Lesnar had only one professional MMA bout under his belt, a win over Min-Soo Kim at K-1 Dynamite! USA in June of 2007. Lesnar's lack of experience was the main focus of Mir's gameplan in their first bout, and he subsequently submitted Lesnar via kneebar in the first round of the fight.

Today, things have completely changed. Mir went on to coach on The Ultimate Fighter Season 8 against PRIDE veteran Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. The coaches' bout after the show gave Mir a shot at Nogueira's UFC Interim Heavyweight title (created due to Randy Couture's holdout from the UFC). Mir TKO'd Nogueira in the second round of the bout at UFC 92, winning the belt and convincing many that he was the true champion of the division.

Unfortunately for Mir, fortune smiled on Lesnar. After a dominating performance against Heath Herring at UFC 87, Lesnar was given the opportunity to fight a returning Randy Couture for the UFC Heavyweight title. On November 15th, 2008, Lesnar vs. Couture took place at UFC 91 with Lesnar defeating Couture via TKO in the second round after Lesnar landed a right that downed Couture. Couture worked a solid gameplan of using his Greco-Roman wrestling and clinch work to wear down Lesnar, but Couture later stated that Lesnar's reach was such a huge factor in the fight because it makes his punches almost impossible to avoid. The win set up the unification bout between Mir and Lesnar.

We're now back to the same question that was seemingly answered in the first bout between Mir and Lesnar. Does Brock Lesnar have the submission defense and experience to avoid Mir's strengths? Interestingly enough, UFC 87 saw some changes in Brock Lesnar's training regiment as he brought in seven-time BJJ world champion and ADCC veteran Rodrigo "Comprido" Medeiros to help him with his submission defense. Medeiros will also help add some submission skills to Lesnar's game, which could become a huge asset considering his overall strength.

With a couple of fights under his belt following his defeat at the hands of Frank Mir and the added trainers to help him improve his MMA skill set, can Brock Lesnar truly defeat a fighter who has been training BJJ for years and has suddenly gained a gas tank?

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Mir has stated that his gameplan could revolve around Lesnar's immense size and conditioning. Lesnar's huge physique should suck in a lot more oxygen than your average heavyweight fighter, but he can also end a fight quickly with such huge power. It was evident in the Couture fight that Lesnar was beginning to tire toward the middle of the second round, but he quickly snuffed any hopes that the match could be won by Couture in the later rounds. Couture stated recently that Mir's plan is probably not the best idea considering Lesnar's reach, but Mir could also be driving home a skillful plan of misdirection using the media.

In the end, the bout comes down to whether Lesnar can avoid the submission. If Mir truly thinks he can strike with Lesnar, he's probably going to lose. Standing in a cage for five rounds with a man who has such immense power in his punches isn't good even if Lesnar's stand-up boxing isn't that great. He's eventually going to land a shot that is going to hurt enough to visibly show Lesnar that it's time to crush you.

Mir's best chance is to work the submission game, and to be perfectly honest, the heel hook, ankle lock, or kneebar is the perfect weapon once again. Lesnar's size doesn't exactly work to his advantage when it comes to leg attack submissions. Mir has stated over and over again in the media that bigger heavyweights are slower than him, so why not take full advantage of that by showing Lesnar some submission skills that he isn't expecting. I think it's the only chance he has of winning this fight.

photo via ufc.com

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Who will win?

UFC 100 Preview: Can Thiago Alves Beat Georges St Pierre and Shock the World?

Leland Roling — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 13:15:37 -0000

The exact same question was answered by Matt Serra at UFC 69 in Houston, Texas after winning The Ultimate Fighter season 4 gave him a chance to fight the UFC's welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre. Serra was a heavy underdog in the bout, but his heavy hands managed to catch St. Pierre early in the fight and end it after a quick scramble. Now, Georges St. Pierre is back in the driver seat at the top of the division after avenging his loss to Matt Serra and defeating the best of the best in Josh Koscheck, Jon Fitch, Matt Hughes, and B.J. Penn.

Now, another unique challenger stares in the face of the champion, who looked invincible after dismantling the talent B.J. Penn at UFC 94. Thiago Alves (16-3) came onto the scene back in 2005 with a loss to Spencer Fisher at UFN 2, but he has easily been one of the most improved fighters in the UFC since then. After losing to Jon Fitch at UFN 5 back in June of 2006, Alves went on a tear through the division defeating John Alessio, Tony DeSouza, Kuniyoshi Hironaka, Chris Lytle, Karo Parisyan, Matt Hughes, and Josh Koscheck. Seven straight wins -- including three over some of the most elite fighters in the division -- have certainly more than earned Alves a title shot.

What does Alves offer that past challengers didn't? The one weak spot in Georges St. Pierre's game has always been his chin. After the enormous upset win by Matt Serra over St. Pierre, it sometimes seems that St. Pierre is reluctant to engage in standing exchanges. His game plan has often revolved around putting the best wrestlers in the division on their backs. Against Jon Fitch, an opponent with excellent wrestling, St. Pierre resorted to using quick footwork and peppering shots to punish him before going for the shoot. The thing about his recent string of opponents is that none are really known as threats to get the KO standing.

Some would say B.J. Penn had the best overall chance of putting St. Pierre down with a quick overhand, but St. Pierre perfectly executed a clever game plan by wearing him down with take down attempts before exchanging with a tired Penn. Then GSP put Penn on his back and pounded on him till he broke. Alves is an entirely different beast. Alves truly has a chance to bring the knockout at any given moment in this fight, and his explosiveness coupled with his Muay Thai skills can be a dangerous combination for St. Pierre.

St. Pierre will need to look out for the flying knee if he intends to shoot on Alves, and he'll also need to avoid the heavy, heavy leg kicks by Alves. One of the things that impresses me about Alves' fighting style has been his use of his power in every aspect of his game. He lands huge leg kicks that probably do more damage in less quantity than most fighters can output over the course of a fight. One look at his physique will tell you a story of how easily he can knock someone out with a well-placed punch, but I think his dynamic stand-up skills coupled with that strength are the bigger story.

This match has all the premonitions of a potential upset. Alves is a guy that has the tools to pull it off, but the most interesting question becomes whether Alves can withstand the onslaught that St. Pierre will deliver if St. Pierre manages to put him on his back. St. Pierre has become the absolute best wrestler in MMA by pure determination and work ethic. He has solid technique, the ability to continually put you on your back and keep you there, and punishing ground and pound that even made B.J. Penn quit.

Could one take down by St. Pierre spell disaster for Alves? It's possible, and there in lies the biggest question... who will strike first? Can Alves land the big shot before St. Pierre brings him into his own world? I'm going with St. Pierre in this fight because I believe it's going to be a punishing performance by St. Pierre if Alves gets taken down even once. St. Pierre's control on the floor is astounding, and Alves will be in for a world of hurt if he is put on his back.

In retrospect, I think this might be the best bout on the card for the simple fact that Alves actually has a chance against a champion who looks immortal after crushing B.J. Penn. Alves will want to strike while St. Pierre will probably want to avoid the knockout blow and go to the ground. A classic clash in styles coupled with the lingering questions about St. Pierre's chin and Alves' ground game make this an even more intriguing battle. We should all be looking forward to this one.

photo via ufc.com

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UFC 100 Preview: Jon Fitch Aims to Avenge Teammate Josh Koscheck's Loss to Paulo Thiago

Leland Roling — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 18:19:55 -0000

UFC 95 is probably an event that Jon Fitch's teammate Josh Koscheck would prefer to forget. Fresh off a stunning knockout victory of Yoshiyuki Yoshida at UFC Fight for the Troops in which Koscheck immediately gained new fans for his headhunting style, Koscheck met newcomer Paulo Thiago in a fight that many fans considered a squash match for Koscheck to end in spectacular fashion.

For the first three minutes of the bout, Koscheck forged into Thiago's range and threw heavy-handed bombs at the Brazilian submission specialist. Thiago tried to hang standing with Koscheck for most of the round, but it was evident that he had a much weaker striking game. Close to the 3:20 mark in the round, that all changed with an uppercut that found its mark on Koscheck's chin. Referee Marc Goddard stepped in to stop the bout, and a visibly upset Josh Koscheck denounced Goddard's decision. However you may feel about the stoppage, Paulo Thiago had beaten the odds and pulled off a surprise upset win.

Fast forward to Saturday night in which Paulo Thiago will have a chance to prove that he's no fluke. He'll take on Koscheck teammate and AKA member Jon Fitch in what is once again looking to be a squash match for the UFC to feature Jon Fitch.

What tells the tale that this could be a squash match? First and foremost, Paulo Thiago isn't a striking phenom. In fact, he looked appalling in his stand-up technique up until the flash knockout of Josh Koscheck at UFC 95. He was easily rattled by Koscheck's aggression and power, and he was taking substantial damage early. The major difference here is that Fitch won't be headhunting for Thiago. Jon Fitch is one wrestler who has avoided the trap of trying to win bonuses and fans by winging booming overhands.

The other reason I think Fitch has a high chance of winning this matchup is that he's much more experienced and flat-out better than Paulo Thiago in every aspect of this fight. He is one of the toughest welterweights to submit, and he possesses a very formidable top control wrestling game that I believe will smother Thiago if it goes to the ground. I'm also on the bandwagon that Fitch will be able to outstrike Thiago fairly easily without giving up his chin to the uppercut.

We're talking about a fighter who went 9-1 in his last 10 fights in the UFC, only losing to the champion Georges St. Pierre in an absolute war of a fight. Who would you go with?

Thiago doesn't offer much in terms of danger to Fitch's reign as a top-level fighter. His biggest strength is his ground acumen in the submission game, but Fitch has powerful wrestling and strength to nullify any opportunities that Thiago can muster. I'm calling for a quick win by Fitch in this matchup, and there really isn't anything intriguing about the fight that can be said for Thiago. If he can win this matchup, it'll be the Cinderella story of 2009. If he loses, I'm afraid we'll probably see Paulo Thiago trail off into obscurity in the middle of the division.

photos via ufc.com

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UFC 100 Preview: Michael Bisping Out to Prove He's a Top Contender

Leland Roling — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 16:15:18 -0000

The UFC's middleweight division has been one of the more controversial weight classes in the sport for quite some time. Not only is the division seen as a shallow talent pool, but it has also suffered from having an overly dominant champion in Anderson Silva. An appalling performance at UFC 97 by Thales Leites didn't help. The controversy stems from the fact that Leites' performance excluded Demian Maia from receiving a title shot due to both being jiu jitsu stylists.

Enter Michael Bisping and Dan Henderson. Bisping vs. Henderson was not only a smart move in terms of creating an Ultimate Fighter season in which the UFC could pit the UK fighters vs. the U.S. fighters, but it also enables the UFC to push two fighters that have no qualms about trying to strike or takedown current champion Anderson Silva. Either fighter will take the fight to Silva as opposed to the passive approach of Thales Leites.

Additionally, the show had international appeal as it drew in current UK fans while adding to that fanbase by featuring Michael Bisping as a coach. It also brings in a new crop of fighters from the UK, and we all know that the UK fanbase could use some more star power than just Michael Bisping, Dan Hardy, Paul Taylor, and Terry Etim.

Not only does this bout provide a title contender that won't try the same style that Leites implemented against Silva, but if Bisping happens to defeat Henderson, it will surely set the stage for a massive event in the UK in which the UFC can make some solid revenue.

Stylistically, this bout has some mystery to it. Michael Bisping hasn't shown a solid wrestling base or unbelievable striking pedigree in the cage in many of his fights. He has managed to topple lesser competition in quick fashion, but his battles against Matt Hammil and Rashad Evans were telling signs that his game has yet to fully develop. After three consecutive wins following his bout with Rashad Evans, the question remains as to whether his skill set has improved.

Henderson is no mystery to the hardcore fan. His reign in PRIDE as both the middleweight (205 lbs.) and welterweight (185 lbs.) champion were significant in that he held both titles at the same time. He was an Olympic Greco-Roman wrestling team member in 1992 and 1996, and he's fairly well-known in the MMA world for possessing a monstrous right hand. His only knock has been that he tends to leave his wrestling credentials at the door during his bouts. He over commits his right hand, leaving himself open to takedowns. Some of his PRIDE fights were textbook examples of that in which fighters with inferior wrestling were able to take him down and control him.

This match truly comes down to whether Michael Bisping's skill set has improved dramatically. He has the technical boxing to pick at Dan Henderson for most of the fight, but will he have the defensive capabilities to avoid the huge right hand from Henderson? Henderson's wrestling ability could become a significant problem as the fight drags on as well. He'll be able to wear Bisping down against the fence and on the floor, and his takedown defense has began to improve a bit over his last few fights as he seems less willing to over commit with the right hand.

Bisping and his trainer have commented about the possibility of Bisping out wrestling Dan Henderson, but that may be an angle to confuse Henderson into believing that gameplan will be implemented come fight time. My gut tells me that Bisping's best chance is to use his speedy footwork and boxing to outpoint Henderson on the feet. The only real problem is the ability that Henderson has to put fighters into real danger from top control.

The winner will get a shot at the mighty Anderson Silva at the top of the division. If Henderson defeats Bisping, we could see some change in that plan as Henderson has already been defeated by Silva, but the UFC has hinted at the fact that the fight will be for a title shot. A Bisping win will almost assuredly set up an epic matchup on English soil with Silva. The key component for a Bisping win will focus on whether or not he has vastly improved his wrestling over the last few months. If so, we could all be in for a huge surprise.

photos via ufc.com

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UFC 100 Preview: Yoshihiro Akiyama and Alan Belcher Seek to Prove Doubters Wrong

Leland Roling — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 13:13:53 -0000

One of the most interesting fights taking place on Saturday evening on the UFC 100 main card will feature DREAM and HERO'S veteran and Korean superstar Yoshihiro "Sexyama" Akiyama taking on highly underrated UFC striker Alan Belcher. The bout is Akiyama's coming out party to the U.S. fans. He's got big drawing power from both the Japanese and Korean fan bases in the Asian market. Not only will he provide a formidable test to many of the UFC's middleweights, but he also can give the UFC's plans for Asian expansion a jump start.

Yoshihiro Akiyama (12-1-0-2) is a former judoka with gold medals from both the 2001 Asian Championships and the 2002 Asian Games at 81kg. He's been one of the few fighters within the sport that has been able to transition his judo into winning form by using tosses and positioning to put opponents on the floor and submit them. He's also no slouch in the stand-up game as he has managed to use his overall power and strength to very dangerous effect standing. Just ask Denis Kang.

There are some huge questions that have yet to be answered about Akiyama's entry into the UFC. First and foremost, many fans say his record isn't a true indication that he has the skills it takes to be successful in the UFC. He managed to defeat 2000 Olympic Silver-medalist Katsuhiko Nagata in HERO's, although Nagata has had limited success in MMA. He defeated heavy-handed striker Melvin Manhoef by way of a vastly better submission game, and he did manage to spectacularly knockout Denis Kang at HERO's 2007 in Korea. Those wins may look impressive to some fans, but Akiyama has yet to take on competition that has been consistently seeded in the top ten. Both Kang and Misaki have dropped out of the top 15 according to the USA Today/SB Nation Middleweight rankings. His UFC stint will be the litmus test.

Secondly, I truly wonder if Akiyama can revel in an environment in which he isn't the ultimate villian. In Japan, almost every Akiyama battle in the latter part of his career was setup much like most battles that Tito Ortiz has been involved in within his UFC career. A lot of people in Japan love to hate Akiyama due to the Japanese/Korean citizenship ordeal coupled with the fact that some fans simply hate the fact that "Time to Say Goodbye" by Andrea Bocelli and Sarah Brightman and holding hands with his cornermen is one of his signature entrances.

Additionally, Akiyama's use of "Oil of Olay" lotion prior to the Sakuraba fight has fueled a hatred by Japanese fans. He's been considered a "cheat" in Japan due to the violation, and he was subsequently suspended by HERO's for the incident and briefly lost his Nike sponsorship.

One of the reasons I have enjoyed Akiyama in Japan is because of the fact that he fights with a huge chip on his shoulder. He's the villian, but he's out to prove to the world that he's the best middleweight in MMA against opponents who want to teach him a lesson in manners and his place in society Kazuo Misaki publicly ranted about Akiyama's disrespect to Japanese fans after defeating him at Yarrenoka!, The fight was later ruled a no-contest due to the kick to the head landing while Akiyama's hands were on the mat. All of the drama surrounding Akiyama only added to his fanbase, even if those fans simply wanted to see him get pounded.

The focus now changes from being the villian in the Asian market to becoming a fighter who is out to prove he can hang with the best in the world in the UFC. Perhaps Akiyama can produce that large chip on his shoulder from some pro-American chanting from the crowd much like in the Koscheck-Yoshida matchup, but one thing is for certain -- this won't be an easy fight for the Korean fashion king.

Alan "The Talent" Belcher (14-5) is currently 5-3 in his UFC career with a huge upset victory over Denis Kang at UFC 93 that has propelled him into some better fights that could potentially put him into a contention role if he continues to beat bigger names. Belcher brings solid Muay Thai kickboxing skills to the cage along with an ever-improving grappling game and a deep gas tank. He's been one of the bright spots in the division as he's managed to be one of the few fighters that has visibly improved in every fight. He also rarely goes to decision, something fans and the UFC always love to see.

Where does Belcher give Akiyama problems? The stand-up game is probably the most dangerous part of Belcher's skill set, and he could end up surprising Akiyama with heavy, quick head kicks and leg kicks. He also has some fairly heavy hands, and his position control and clinch game has improved dramatically. Belcher is definitely one of the more underrated prospects within the division. I believe that Akiyama's skill set and strength is vastly underrated by fans. He has the judo game to put Belcher in some bad positions, and Belcher's submission defense has been a topic of discussion in the past.

Both Akiyama and Belcher have much to prove to fans on Saturday night. Belcher will want to prove that his win over Denis Kang was no fluke and that he has improved substantially enough to be considered a top middleweight in the division. Akiyama will want to prove to his detractors that he can compete with the UFC's elite, and that his signing isn't just a way for the UFC to draw fans from the Asian market, but rather a way for the UFC to add depth to a division that has been shallow in the past. This bout is one that everyone should look forward to watching.

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UFC 100 Preview: Stephan Bonnar Seeks Big Win Over UFC Legend Mark Coleman

Leland Roling — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 13:56:07 -0000

It isn't too often in sports that we see athletes perform well past the generally accepted retirement age. Baseball players like Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson have proven to be absolute machines at seemingly impossibly advanced ages. If we focus on the sport of MMA, most fans immediately point at Randy "The Natural" Couture as the epitome of a fighter who has performed admirably past his prime and continues to be effective in the Octagon.

Mark Coleman plans to try to show the world on Saturday night that he is also capable of matching Randy Couture's longevity. Although the Father of "Ground n' Pound" hasn't been thrust into the spotlight like Couture had been with an immediate title shot in his return, he did manage to land a fight with former PRIDE GP champion Mauricio "Shogun" Rua in his return to the UFC. The outcome and his own performance didn't garner a lot of confidence that Coleman would be able to continue fighting for much longer.

The battle between the two former PRIDE fighters at UFC 93 in Dublin, Ireland was considered a huge bust by almost every fan watching the matchup, with the exception of the UFC brass who felt it earned "Fight of the Night" honors. Most fans believed the "Shogun" Rua of the past would come out and walk over the older Mark Coleman, but Rua's conditioning was appalling along with Coleman's own terrible gas tank. Coleman was able to actually hold Rua down during some moments of the fight, but it was likely due to the fact that Rua was out of breath.

The fight proved to be a huge indicator that both Coleman and Rua were both neglectful in their training. Rua landed an uppercut in the midst of a combination in the third round to end the fight, but the consensus opinion of fans and writers was that the fight was much more of a discouragement to fans believing Rua was on the right track back to being dominant.

Rua moved on to defeat Chuck Liddell in spectacular fashion, and he'll now face Lyoto Machida in a title matchup at UFC 104. Coleman hasn't fought since the encounter, but the UFC will give the Ultimate Fighter Season 1 runner-up Stephan Bonnar the chance to pull off a huge win against a more recognizable name in Coleman.

This will be a matchup in which Coleman will likely try to prove that his one-dimensional style can still win fights. Bonnar's skillset is pretty well-rounded. He has trained in Muay Thai, boxing, wrestling, jiu-jitsu and even Tae Kwon Do. He'll obviously have the edge with a much broader skill set than Coleman, but Coleman's powerful wrestling could overwhelm Bonnar.

Bonnar should have the overall edge in this fight, and if Coleman plans on coming out striking -- I'd be even more inclined to pick Bonnar. I'm not convinced that Coleman has improved his striking since taking a beating from Rua, and Bonnar should be able to work Coleman over in multiple ways. Bonnar will need to worry about having to work off his back for most of the fight though, otherwise he may lose via a "lay n' pray" decision.

Ultimately, this will be either a solid win for Stephan Bonnar who hasn't had the same success that Forrest Griffin has had since the inaugural Ultimate Fighter show, or it'll confirm that Mark Coleman at least has what it takes to defeat standard middle-of-the-pack talent in the UFC's light heavyweight division. The fight doesn't hold much significance because neither fighter has shown the ability to break into the upper-echelon of the division, but I think most fight fans would like to see Bonnar continue to stay in the mix of the division over an aging Coleman.

photos via ufc.com

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Mark 'The Antidote' Coleman training for UFC 100:

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UFC 100 Preview: Jim Miller vs. Mac Danzig Has Major Implications for Both Fighters' Career Paths

Leland Roling — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 15:39:07 -0000

Jim Miller's style could easily be summed up in one word: relentless. That truly encompasses everything you need to know about him coming into his UFC 100 bout with Mac Danzig (18-6-1) on Saturday night. He's also built a reputation as a fighter known for coming in on short notice and actually winning. His battles in the East Coast promotion Ring of Combat and in the International Fight League are considered to be a testament to that very word, and he has brought that same style to the Octagon in his three stints in the UFC.

Miller (13-2) now faces The Ultimate Fighter Season 6 winner Mac Danzig in a match that has quietly flown under the radar. Coming off a disappointing loss to The Ultimate Fighter Season 5 contestant and powerhouse wrestler Gray Maynard at UFC 96 back in March, Miller will be looking to regain some momentum with a win.

The story is a bit different for Mac Danzig. Danzig is coming off two straight losses in the UFC. He dropped a unanimous decision to the cardio machine Clay Guida. He was submitted via triangle choke by a very tough Josh Neer in his most last fight. He'll surely be on the chopping block with a loss, so this fight matters for Mac Danzig.

Stylistically, Danzig holds some slight technical edges over Miller. He's very well-versed on the floor. He did submit a high-level grappler in Mark Bocek at UFC 83, and he was a submission master early in his career against weaker competition. He also has improved his striking game training at Freddie Roach's gym under Justin Fortune. Danzig was also a student of Iowa wrestling standout Rico Chiapparelli and UFC fighter Frank Trigg, so his wrestling has been adequate enough to be effective in the cage. He currently trains out of Xtreme Couture for an added training regiment focusing on his wrestling, and he has an advantage in being a very good friend and training partner to Gray Maynard, an outstanding wrestler in his own right.

Miller doesn't offer a better striking game, but his submission ability can surprise even the most experienced grapplers. He can pull off submissions in some of the tightest corners of the cage. He's almost impossible to finish, and his durability in the cage is unmatched. He won't come at Danzig with a Guida pace, but he does come forward at a pace that opponents find hard to sustain.

The most interesting question in this match comes in the striking game. Danzig has actually shown some solid improvement over the years, and he managed to clip Guida with some good shots in their September bout. Miller has shown some good stand-up ability in past fights, but does he have the technical acumen to compete with Danzig standing? Furthermore, can Miller actually out-wrestle Danzig and wear him down to a point in which he could potentially win the fight?

What sort of implications does the outcome of this fight have for both fighters? A Danzig loss would most assuredly spell disaster for his career within the UFC. Three straight losses would put him on the chopping block, but I'd be more inclined to believe that Zuffa would deal with Danzig for a contract within the featherweight division in the WEC. He can easily cut down to 145 lbs., and he's always stated that lightweight isn't his natural weight class. He can probably beat most of the lower-echelon featherweights in the WEC, and I wouldn't be surprised if his power at 145 would put him in the win column more times than not.

Miller, on the other hand, has a lot to gain with a win. It will give him a 3-1 record inside the Octagon with a lone loss coming against a guy who could potentially be a title contender within the next year. Miller will undoubtedly be offered some very interesting opponents, and with some wins, he could see himself in the upper part of the division vying for contention in a year as well. Of course, there are a lot of "what ifs" in that formula, and Miller would have to continue winning.

I'd love to pick Miller here as he's one of my favorite fighters in the lightweight division, but it's a tough call. A lot of Miller's opponents in that past have held edges in specific areas of his skill set, and he's managed to come out on top with pure determination and grit. Danzig is fairly technical on the ground, but his improving stand-up has me scratching my head as to whether he can truly catch Miller and finish. I'm more inclined to believe we'll see this go to decision, and I'd rather see Miller win and move on into the division while Danzig moves down to a weight class that is more favorable for his frame.

Photos via UFC.com

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UFC 100 Preview: C.B. Dollaway Progressing Into Potential Star?

Leland Roling — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 13:23:26 -0000

In preliminary action at Saturday night's UFC 100 event, Ultimate Fighter season 7 runner-up C.B. Dollaway (8-1) will take on Ultimate Fighter season 8 contestant Tom Lawlor (5-1) in a bout that will give Dollaway another chance to showcase his improvement since his stint on TUF. While this isn't the most intriguing match by any means, it will give us a glimpse into what Dollaway is adding to his skill set.

Dollaway is currently 8-1 in his career with a lone loss coming from injury-riddled Amir Sadollah at the Ultimate Fighter season 7 Finale back in June of 2008. Interestingly enough, Sadollah also fought Dollaway in the house, and he defeated him via armbar in the third round of their semifinal matchup. After Jesse Taylor was kicked off the show, Dollaway fought Tim Credeur for the spot against Sadollah in the finale. Dollaway won that fight, but he subsequently dropped the finale fight in the same manner Sadollah had defeated him previously.

After the loss, Dollaway has been on somewhat of an impressive run in his last two fights. He submitted Jesse Taylor at UFN 14 via a Peruvian Necktie submission in quick fashion, and he surprisingly recovered from being caught on the chin by a very game Mike Massenzio at UFC 92 to transitioning to back control and punching Massenzio into a stoppage. Both fights ended in the first round.

There is also a significant chance that Dollaway will only become better as he moves up in competition. Training out of Arizona Combat Sports in Tempe, Arizona, elite-level training partners are plentiful for Dollaway to test his mettle. Names like former WEC champion Carlos Condit, TUF Season 8 winner Ryan Bader, current UFC fighter Aaron Simpson, Steve Steinbess, BJJ phenom and up-and-coming welterweight Jacob McClintock, and when healthy, WEC lightweight champion Jamie Varner are all training partners for Dollaway.

Tom Lawlor won't exactly be a victim to Dollaway's skills in the cage. Lawlor, best known for knocking out "Diamond" Dave Kaplan after Kaplan insisted he couldn't be knocked out, has been training out of one of the best MMA camps in the world in Coconut Creek, Florida-based American Top Team. He has a solid background in wrestling, but ATT seems to be a camp that can mold fighters into devastating Muay Thai practitioners coupled with a solid grappling base. Whether or not Lawlor has become an "assimilated" member of the ATT family has yet to be determined, but he has an ample amount of unbelievable training partners in his own camp that will help him achieve success.

Gesias "JZ" Calvancante, Denis Kang, Marcelo Garcia, Jeff Monson, and Thiago Alves all call ATT their home, but that's just the tip of the iceberg. Lawlor should be able to find some of the best training in the world at ATT, but can he manage to take all the wisdom given to him from fellow competitors and turn it into an upset victory over Dollaway?

My gut tells me that this is C.B. Dollaway's fight to lose. Lawlor didn't show an overly different style in his battle with Kyle Kingsbury, and Dollaway has the skills to nullify Lawlor's wrestling game or easily transition into submissions if Lawlor is aggressive in trying to take Dollaway down. The only real advantage I can see is that Lawlor is dropping down in weight to middleweight for this fight, and he could have a sizable weight advantage come fight time.

Dollaway is being brought along nicely by the UFC and matchmaker Joe Silva. The Mike Massenzio matchup was a solid test due to their past history in collegiate wrestling with Dollaway barely defeating Massenzio on the mat, and Dollaway passed the test in the MMA cage with flying colors against a surging Massenzio.

This is a more toned down battle than the Massenzio matchup, but it is obvious that the UFC has some plans for Dollaway as he hasn't been thrown into any big matchups yet. He should progress nicely into a mid-echelon middleweight at this rate, but he'll need a huge push to become one of the elite fighters in the division in the years to come.

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UFC 100 Preview: Jon Jones Looks to Continue Meteoric Rise

Leland Roling — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 15:53:37 -0000

At the beginning of 2008, the majority of MMA fans following the sport had never heard of Jon Jones. In fact, unless you grew up in the Endicott, NY area or had followed the reign of Iowa Central Community College's success in the Junior College wrestling circuit, Jon Jones was merely a name of another newcomer to the fast-growing sport of MMA. Fast foward to a little over a year since Jon Jones made his MMA debut, he's now scheduled to battle it out once again in MMA's elite organization known as the UFC for the third time.

Jones has an impressive story when it comes to his meteoric rise to the top. Back in April of 2008, he made his MMA debut in a small regional promotion in the Boston area. Seven days later, he battled it out in the cage once again in Atlantic City for his second win, and won a third matchup only six days later in another small-time promotion in the Boston area. In only 13 days, Jones had went from a debut fighter to a 3-0 wrecking machine.

In only 4 months actually competing professionally, Jones had made his way to the big leagues as if he were a prodigy child entering college at age 12. Relatively unknown to anybody in the MMA community, Jones had managed to destroy six opponents and grab the attention of the UFC. On August 9th at the age of 21, Jones entered the Octagon at UFC 87 against Brazilian fighter Andre Gusmao.

In two fights in the UFC, Jon Jones has turned heads countless times. He has impressive power, outstanding Greco-Roman wrestling skills, and his unorthodox striking techniques have caught opponents completely off guard at times. Mixing in spinning elbows and fists while moving out of the clinch and during exchanges has been a trademark of Jones' wild stand-up style, but he's also been impressive in leveraging his power to throw opponents to the floor.

UFC 100 will see Jones try to make another statement to the UFC's light heavyweight division. He's been matched up with smothering former UFC heavyweight fighter Jake O'Brien, who recently defeated Christian Wellisch at UFC 94 via split decision. Jones will likely only have one true challenge in this matchup in that he'll need to work to stuff O'Brien's takedowns to keep away from what many fans consider a "lay n' pray" style that O'Brien uses to win matchups.

I fully expect Jones to pull out the win on Saturday night as he has the power, speed, unorthodox striking, and wrestling to defeat O'Brien. There is, however, one problem I'd like for the UFC to try to address in Jon Jones... his conditioning. In both the Andre Gusmao and Stephan Bonnar fights, it was evident that Jones was tiring in the late second and third rounds of those matchups. He had, however, done so much damage early that it was easy for the judges to score it for Jones in both the first two rounds of those matchups, but a more well-rounded opponent who is very good in most areas of his own skill set could give Jones some big problems in the latter rounds. It might be a motivating factor to give Jones a matchup in which he knows that conditioning will need extra focus.

Jones' rise into the top promotion in MMA in only six months is unheard of in this era of the sport. With fighters evolving their games to be very well-rounded, it's a rare sight to see a guy like Jones propel into the UFC and win fights in impressive fashion. We can say that Jones has had the training in the wrestling department as he did wrestle at Iowa Central with a guy by the name of Cain Velasquez, but it's an even scarier thought to imagine what Jones could become with better conditioning and a more structured skill set. He could truly be the future of MMA.

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